Here is what we have so far...

Next ballot due: 9:00pm EST, Sunday, February 18th

Current (2010) Hall of Fame (year, percentage)
Honus Wagner (1936, 1st ballot, 100.0%)
Ty Cobb (1936, 1st ballot, 94.4%)
Walter Johnson (1936, 1st ballot, 94.4%)
Babe Ruth (1936, 1st ballot, 94.4%)
Cy Young (1936, 1st ballot, 83.3%)
Christy Mathewson (1937, 2nd ballot, 66.7, 100.0%)
Tris Speaker (1937, 2nd ballot, 61.1, 93.3%)
Pete "Grover Cleveland" Alexander (1937, 2nd ballot, 38.9, 93.3%)
Eddie Collins (1937, 2nd ballot, 16.7, 80.0%)
Nap Lajoie (1938, 3rd ballot, 19.4, 73.3, 88.9%)
Mordecai "Kevin" Brown (1938, 3rd ballot, 13.9, 60.0, 77.8%)
John McGraw (1939, 4th ballot, 5.6, 40.0, 61.1, 88.2%)
George Sisler (1941, 6th ballot, 8.3, 46.7, 55.6, 64.7, 72.7, 80.0%)
(Wee) Willie Keeler (1941, 6th ballot, 2.8, 26.7, 44.4, 64.7, 72.7, 80.0%)
Mickey Cochrane (1943, 2nd ballot, 5.6, long gap, 93.3%)
Rogers Hornsby (1943, 2nd ballot, 66.7, long gap, 93.3%)
Cap Anson (1943, 7th ballot, 6.7, 38.9, 58.8, 72.7, 66.7, 71.4, 85.7%)
Kid Nichols (1943, 7th ballot, 6.7, 38.9, 52.9, 72.7, 66.7, 71.4, 78.6%)
Sam Crawford (1943, 7th ballot, 6.7, 38.9, 35.3, 45.5, 46.7, 71.4, 78.6%)
Harry Heilmann (1944, 8th ballot, 13.3, 27.8, 23.5, 45.5, 40.0, 50.0, 66.7, 100.0%)
Pie Traynor (1944, 3rd ballot, 8.3, gap, 73.3, 90.0%)
Frankie Frisch (1944, 2nd ballot, 60.0, 80.0%)
Ed Walsh (1944, 9th ballot, 2.8, 13.3, 11.1, 11.8, 45.5, 40.0, 57.1, 71.4, 77.8%)
Ed Delahanty (1944, 9th ballot, 2.8, 6.7, 11.1, 17.6, 27.3, 26.7, 42.9, 71.4, 77.8%)
Roger Bresnahan (1944, 9th ballot, 6.7, 16.7, 17.6, 45.5, 26.7, 42.9, 64.3, 77.8%)
Charley (Old Hoss) Radbourn (1944, 7th ballot, 11.1, 29.4, 45.5, 40.0, 35.7, 35.7, 77.8%)
Lou Gehrig (1945, 2nd ballot, 69.4, gap, 100.0%)
Dazzy Vance (1946, 6th ballot, 20.0, 14.3, 40.0, 70.0, 68.8, 85.7%)
Connie Mack (1946, 11th ballot, 2.8, 40.0, 55.6, 58.8, 36.4, 46.7, 64.3, 73.3, 60.0, 68.8, 85.7%)
Dan Brouthers (1946, 9th ballot, 5.6, 5.9, 9.1, 6.7, 7.1, 28.6, 55.6, 64.3, 78.6%)
Lefty Grove (1947, 2nd ballot, 55.6, gap, 100%)
Billy Hamilton (1947, 6th ballot, 28.6, 50.0, 55.6, 64.3, 71.4, 85.7%)
Goose Goslin (1948, 5th ballot, 60.0, 68.8, 71.4, 68.8, 92.3%)
Gabby Hartnett (1948, 2nd ballot, 62.5, 84.6%)
Jesse Burkett (1948, 5th ballot, 11.1, 42.9, 64.3, 71.4, 84.6%)
Tony Lazzeri (1948, 4th ballot, 68.8, 64.3, 62.5, 76.9%)
Hack Wilson (1948, 9th ballot, 36.4, 20.0, 28.6, 46.7, 50.0, 66.3, 50.0, 50.0, 76.9%)
Eddie Plank (1948, 12th ballot, 13.3, 27.8, 35.3, 9.1, 26.7, 57.1, 71.4, 66.7, 71.4, 71.4, 71.4, 76.9%)
Joe McGinnity (1948, 12th ballot, 6.7, 5.6, 5.9, 18.2, 13.3, 14.3, 14.3, 44.4, 64.3, 64.3, 71.4, 76.9%)
Addie Joss (1948, 7th ballot, 0, gap, 14.3, 22.2, 50.0, 57.1, 64.3, 76.9%)
Charlie Gehringer (1949, 1st ballot, 78.6%)
Frank "Home Run" Baker (1949, 13th ballot, 6.7, 27.8, 23.5, 27.3, 20.0, 21.4, 46.7, 66.7, 71.4, 64.3, 64.3, 69.2, 84.6%)
Rube Waddell (1949, 11th ballot, 5.9, 9.1, 6.7, 7.1, 7.1, 11.1, 50.0, 50.0, 57.1, 61.5, 84.6%)
Roger Connor (1950, 5th ballot, 42.9, 71.4, 69.2, 69.2, 93.8%)
Carl Hubbell (1950, 2nd ballot, 71.4, 88.9%)
Al Simmons (1950, 1st ballot, 77.8%)
Michael (King) Kelly (1950, 12th ballot, 5.6, 5.9, 9.1, 0, 7.1, 21.4, 55.6, 50.0, 50.0, 50.0, 53.9, 61.5, 75.0%)
Jimmie Foxx (1951, 2nd ballot, 50.0, gap, 100.0%)
Paul Waner (1951, 1st ballot, 91.7%)
George Davis (1951, 9th ballot, 7.1, 22.2, 28.6, 21.4, 14.3, 15.4, 53.8, 62.5, 81.8%)
Joe Cronin (1952, 2nd ballot, 58.3, 92.3%)
Bill Terry (1952, 11th ballot, 21.4, 40.0, 50.0, 50.0, 57.1, 43.8, 61.5, 57.1, 66.7, 66.7, 84.6%)
Buck Ewing (1952, 13th ballot, 9.1, 6.7, 7.1, 7.1, 11.1, 21.4, 14.3, 14.3, 23.1, 23.1, 50.0, 72.7, 83.3%)
Bill Dahlen (1952, 13th ballot, 9 previous ballots, gap, 23.1, 31.3, 45.5, 83.3%)
Hugh Duffy (1952, 11th ballot, 21.4, 21.4, 33.3, 57.1, 57.1, 50.0, 61.5, 69.2, 62.5, 72.7, 75.0%)
Al Spalding (1952, 4th ballot, 15.4, 12.5, 18.2, 75.0%)
Hank Greenberg (1953, 1st ballot, 100.0%)
Mel Ott (1953,1st ballot, 100.0%)
Bill Dickey (1953, 2nd ballot, 69.2, 83.3%)
Dizzy Dean (1953, 1st ballot, 75.0%)
Arky Vaughan (1954, 1st ballot, 92.9%)
Jimmy Collins (1954, 13th ballot, 7 previous ballots, gap, 15.4, 31.3, 45.5, 58.3, 54.5, 92.3%)
Joe Medwick (1954, 1st ballot, 85.7%)
Tim Keefe (1954, 11th ballot, 5 previous ballots, gap, 7.7, 25.0, 27.3, 50.0, 72.7, 84.6%)
John (Monte) Ward (1954, 8th ballot, 7.1, 0, gap, 15.4, 25.0, 27.3, 33.3, 63.6, 76.9%)
Amos Rusie (1954, 12th ballot, 7.1, 11.1, 14.3, 14.3, 28.6, 38.5, 46.2, 37.5, 36.4, 50.0, 45.5, 76.9%)
Stan Hack (1955, 3rd ballot, 58.3, 64.3, 80.0%)
Kiki Cuyler (1955, 12th ballot, 40.0, 43.8, 57.1, 56.3, 69.2, 57.1, 44.4, 41.7, 61.5, 41.7, 64.3, 80.0%)
Fred "Cap" Clarke (1955, 9th ballot, 7.1, 23.1, 23.1, 37.5, 63.6, 58.3, 63.6, 61.5, 80.0%)
John Clarkson (1955, 9th ballot, 6 previous ballots, gap, 36.3, 46.1, 80.0%)
Luke Appling (1956, 1st ballot, 88.9%)
Stan Coveleski (1956, 5th ballot, 3 previous ballots, gap, 40.0, 75.0%)
Earl "Rock" Averill (1957, 11th ballot, 31.3 ,53.9, 50.0, 44.4, 58.3, 69.2, 58.3, 57.1, 70.0, 66.7, 100.0%)
Zach Wheat (1957, 11th ballot, 7.1, 7.7, 23.1, 31.3, 54.5, 58.3, 54.5, 53.8, 60.0, 62.5, 100.0%)
Elmer Flick (1958, 9th ballot, 6.3, 36.4, 41.7, 63.6, 46.1, 50.0, 62.5, 72.7, 100.0%)
Joe DiMaggio (1958, 2nd ballot, 45.5, 88.9%)
Joe "Flash" Gordon (1958, 3rd ballot, 33.3, 72.7, 77.8%)
Frank Chance (1958, 15th ballot, 0, gap, 21.4, 14.3, 7.1, 7.7, 23.1, 43.8, 45.5, 58.3, 45.5, 38.5, 30.0, 37.5, 63.6, 75.0%)
Johnny Mize (1959, 1st ballot, 100.0%)
Bobby Doerr (1959, 3rd ballot, 63.6, 66.7, 90.0%)
Carl Mays (1959, 11th ballot, 7.7, 6.3, 9.1, 8.3, 9.1, 15.4, 40.0, 62.5, 54.5, 55.6, 77.8%)
Sherry Magee (1959, 9th ballot, 9.1, 8.3, 18.2, 23.1, 20.0, 50.0, 45.4, 55.6, 77.8%)
Lou Boudreau (1960, 3rd ballot, 44.4, 70.0, 100.0%)
Lefty Gomez (1960, 12th ballot, 14.3, 11.1, 8.3, 7.7, 8.3, 21.3, 50.0, 44.4, 72.7, 66.7, 70.0, 100.0%)
Wally Berger (1960, 15th ballot, 7.1, 12.5, 30.8, 28.6, 16.7, 41.7, 38.5, 25.0, 28.6, 30.0, 22.2, 36.4, 44.4,
60.0, 75.0%)
Ralph Kiner (1961, 1st ballot, 100.0%)
Bid McPhee (1961, 6th ballot, 12.5, 18.2, 22.2, 55.6, 62.5, 83.3%)
Bob Feller (1962, 1st ballot, 100.0%)
Jackie Robinson (1962, 1st ballot, 100.0%)
Bob Johnson (1962, 12th ballot, 33.3, 38.5, 41.7, 35.7, 50.0, 44.4, 54.5, 55.6, 60.0, 62.5, 50.0, 75.0%)
Hal Newhouser (1962, 1st ballot, 75.0%)
Roy Campanella (1963, 1st ballot, 100.0%)
Vern Stephens (1963, 3rd ballot, 46.2, 58.3, 84.6%)
Pud Galvin (1963, 9th ballot, 20.0, 25.0, 45.4, 44.4, 55.6, 50.0, 33.3, 72.7, 83.3%)
Heinie Groh (1963, 13th ballot, 6.3, 9.1, 8.3, 9.1, 23.1, 10.0, 37.5, 36.3, 44.4, 55.6, 50.0, 50.0, 72.7, 83.3%)
Johnny Sain (1963, 3rd ballot, 61.5, 66.7, 76.9%)
Larry Doyle (1964, 15th ballot, 6.3, 9.1, 8.3, 9.1, 7.7, 10.0, 12.5, 18.2, 11.1, 22.2, 12.5, 8.3, 9.1, 58.3, 100.0%)
Ted Lyons (1964, 13th ballot, 23.1, 25.0, 21.3, 30.0, 33.3, 45.5, 33.3, 30.0, 12.5, 15.4, 16.7, 30.8, 77.8%)
Jim O'Rourke (1964, 9th ballot, 3 previous ballots, gap, 9.1, 22.2, 22.2, 25.0, 25.0, 36.4, 50.0, 75.0%)
Bob Lemon (1965, 2nd ballot, 66.7, 80.0%)
Larry Doby (1965, 1st ballot, 80.0%)
Deacon White (1965, 15th ballot, 6 previous ballots, gap, 18.2, 33.3, 44.4, 50.0, 33.3, 45.5, 50.0, 62.5, 80.0%)
Ted Williams (1966, 1st ballot, 100.0%)
Jack Glasscock (1966, 11th ballot, 12.5, 27.3, 11.1, 11.1, 12.5, 8.3, 36.4, 50.0, 62.5, 70.0, 100.0%)
Paul Hines (1966, 9th ballot, 9.1, 11.1, 11.1, 12.5, 27.3, 41.7, 50.0, 70.0, 100.0%)
George Wright (1966, 3rd ballot, 70.0, 90.0%)
Pee Wee Reese (1966, 3rd ballot, 55.6, 60.0, 90.0%)
Wes Farrell (1966, 11th ballot, 22.2, 27.3, 44.4, 40.0, 25.0, 15.4, 33.3, 23.1, 22.2, 60.0, 90.0%)
Enos Slaughter (1966, 2nd ballot, 70.0, 80.0%)
Bob Elliott (1966, 3rd ballot, 66.7, 60.0, 80.0%)
Billy Herman (1966, 14th ballot, 25.0, 14.3, 30.0, 33.3, 27.3, 33.3, 40.0, 37.5, 38.5, 41.7, 53.8, 55.6, 60.0, 80.0%)
Red Ruffing (1967, 15th ballot, 0, gap, 7.1, 30.0, 22.2, 45.5, 33.3, 40.0, 25.0, 30.8, 25.0, 30.8, 55.6, 40.0, 60.0, 87.5%)
Urban Shocker (1968, 5th ballot, 25.0, 60.0, 70.0, 62.5, 85.7%)
Stan Musial (1969, 1st ballot, 100.0%)
Duke Snider (1970, 1st ballot, 100.0%)
Richie Ashburn (1970, 3rd ballot, 42.9, 70.0, 75.0%)
Tommy Bridges (1970, 12th ballot, 5 previous ballots, gap, 33.3, 50.0, 60.0, 62.5, 71.4, 60.0, 75.0%)
Yogi Berra (1971, 1st ballot, 100.0%)
Warren Spahn (1971, 1st ballot, 100.0%)
Satchel Paige (1971, 1st ballot, 75.0%)
Sandy Koufax (1972, 1st ballot, 100%)
Bobby Wallace (1972, 13th ballot, 12.5, 16.7, 18.2, 25.0, 25.0, 40.0, 50.0, 50.0, 71.4, 50.0, 62.5, 62.5, 90.9%)
Minnie Minoso (1972, 2nd ballot, 37.5, 81.8%)
Robin Roberts (1972, 1st ballot, 81.8%)
Whitey Ford (1973, 1st ballot, 100%)
Nellie Fox (1973, 3rd ballot, 62.5, 72.7, 90.9%)
Pete Browning (1973, 12th ballot, 9.1, 25.0, 37.5, 30.0, 40.0, 62.5, 57.1, 50.0, 37.5, 50.0, 54.5, 75.0%)
Mickey Mantle (1974, 1st ballot, 100%)
Eddie Mathews (1974, 1st ballot, 100%)
Early Wynn (1975, 7th ballot, 50.0, 62.5, 50.0, 54.5, 66.7, 72.7, 91.7%)
Don Drysdale (1975, 1st ballot, 75.0%)
Ken Boyer (1976, 2nd ballot,58.3, 75.0%)
Sam Thompson (1976, 8th ballot, 10.0, 25.0, 25.0, 18.2, 25.0, 63.6, 58.3, 83.3%)
Ernie Banks (1977, 1st ballot, 100.0%)
Hughie Jennings (1977, 10th ballot, 14.3, 30.0, 12.5, 37.5, 45.5, 41.7, 36.4, 58.3, 66.7, 83.3%)
Roberto Clemente (1978, 1st ballot, 100.0%)
Hoyt Wilhelm (1978, 1st ballot, 100.0%)
Jim Bunning (1978, 2nd ballot, 66.7, 76.9%)
Joe Sewell (1978, 12th ballot, 12.5, 42.9, 30.0, 37.5, 37.5, 54.5, 50.0, 54.5, 58.3, 50.0, 66.7, 76.9%)
Willie Mays (1979, 1st ballot, 100.0%)
Al Kaline (1980, 1st ballot, 100.0%)
Ron Santo (1980, 1st ballot, 100.0%)
Orlando Cepeda (1980, 1st ballot, 90.9%)
Bob Gibson (1981, 1st ballot, 100.0%)
Harmon Killebrew (1981, 1st ballot, 100.0%)
Juan Marichal (1981, 1st ballot, 100.0%)
Frank Robinson (1982, 1st ballot, 100.0%)
Hank Aaron (1982, 1st ballot, 91.7%)
Billy Williams (1982, 1st ballot, 91.7%)
Billy Pierce (1982, 13th ballot, 12.5, 25.0, 18.2, 18.2, 27.3, 58.3, 58.3, 33.3, 61.5, 46.2, 63.6, 54.5, 75.0%)
Dick Allen (1983, 1st ballot, 75.0%)
Bill Freehan (1983, 2nd ballot, 58.3%, 91.7%)
Brooks Robinson (1983, 1st ballot, 91.7%)
Harry Stovey (1983, 15th ballot, 10.0, 12.5, 25.0, 18.2, 9.1, 9.1, 0.0, 8.3, 8.3, 15.4, 15.4, 18.2, 27.3, 58.3, 75.0%)
Luis Aparicio (1984, 6th ballot, 38.5, 54.5, 54.5, 41.7, 41.7, 80.0%)
Frank Howard (1984, 6th ballot, 30.8, 45.5, 54.5, 41.7, 66.0, 80.0%)
Joe Torre (1984, 2nd ballot, 50.0, 80.0%)
Jimmy Wynn (1984, 2nd ballot, 58.3, 90.0%)
Lou Brock (1985, 1st ballot, 77.8%)
Ernie Lombardi (1985, resurected ballot, 18.2, 41.7, 41.7, 50.0, 88.9%)
Elston Howard (1986, 13th ballot, 36.4, 33.3, 41.7, 41.7, 46.2, 30.8, 27.3, 36.4, 66.7, 60.0, 70.0, 66.7, 77.8%)
Willie McCovey (1986, 1st ballot, 100.0%)
Willie Stargell (1988, 1st ballot, 91.7%)
Luis Tiant (1988, 1st ballot, 91.7%)
Bobby Bonds (1988, 2nd ballot, 83.3%)
Johnny Bench (1989, 1st ballot, 100.0%)
Ferguson Jenkins (1989, 1st ballot, 92.9%)
Carl Yastrzemski (1989, 1st ballot, 100.0%)
Joe Morgan (1990, 1st ballot, 100.0%)
Jim Palmer (1990, 1st ballot, 100.0%)
Gaylord Perry (1990, 2nd ballot, 71.4, 81.8%)
Rod Carew (1991, 1st ballot, 90.9%)
Tom Seaver (1992, 1st ballot, 100.0%)
Reggie Jackson (1993, 1st ballot, 100.0%)
Steve Carlton (1994, 1st ballot, 92.9%)
Bobby Grich (1994, 3rd ballot, 66.7, 71.4, 85.7%)
Phil Niekro (1995, 3rd ballot, 64.3, 64.3, 92.3%)
Tony Oliva (1995, 14th ballot, 33.3, 33.3, 60.0, 66.7, 66.7, 63.6, 58.3, 50.0, 45.5, 54.5, 60.0, 64.3, 71.4, 92.3%)
Mike Schmidt (1995, 1st ballot, 84.6%)
Jim "Catfish" Hunter (1995, 11th ballot, 55.6, 55.6, 54.5, 41.7, 50.0, 54.5, 63.6, 66.7, 71.4, 71.4, 76.9%)
Ted Simmons (1995, 2nd ballot, 64.3, 76.9%)
Darrell Evens (1996, 2nd ballot, 53.8, 83.3%)
Don Sutton (1996, 3rd ballot, 35.7, 30.8, 75.0%)
Sal Bando (1996, 10th ballot, 9.1, 25.0, 35.7, 36.4, 45.5, 40.0, 50.0, 35.7, 46.2,
75.0)
Garry Carter (1998, 1st ballot, 85.7%)
George Brett (1999, 1st ballot, 100.0%)
Carlton Fisk (1999, 1st ballot, 100.0%)
Robin Yount (1999, 1st ballot, 91.7%)
Reggie Smith (1999, 11th ballot, 41.7, 28.6, 36.4, 45.5, 40.0, 35.7, 38.5, 33.0, 61.5, 71.4, 83.3%)
Bert Blyleven (1999, 2nd ballot, 64.3, 75.0%)
Keith Hernandez (1999, 4th ballot, 16.7, 69.2, 71.4, 75.0%)
Nolan Ryan (1999, 1st ballot, 75.0%)
Goose Gossage (2000, 1st ballot, 83.3%)
Kirby Puckett (2001, 1st ballot, 80.0%)
Tony Perez (2001, 10th ballot, 20.0, 7.1, 0.0, 7.7, 25.0, 23.1, 14.3, 0.0, 50.0, 80.0%)
Ron Cey (2002, 10th ballot, 21.4, 14.3, 7.7, 41.7, 53.8, 50.0, 50.0, 66.7, 70.0, 83.3%)
Dale Murphy (2002, 4th ballot, 25.0, 41.7, 70.0, 83.3%)
Ozzie Smith (2002, 1st ballot, 80.0%)
Lou Whitaker (2002, 2nd ballot 60.0, 75.0%)
Dave Winfield (2002, 2nd ballot 70.0, 91.7%)
Eddie Murray (2003, 1st ballot, 100.0%)
Pete Rose (2003, 12th ballot, 40.0, 42.9, 42.9, 46.2, 50.0, 53.8, 50.0, 50.0, 50.0, 50.0, 50.0, 76.9%)
Ryne Sandberg (2003, 1st ballot, 100.0%)
Alan Trammell (2003, 2nd ballot, 66.7, 92.3%)
Dennis Eckersley (2004, 1st ballot, 90.9%)
Paul Molitor (2004, 1st ballot, 81.8%)
Wade Boggs (2005, 1st ballot, 93.3%)
Tony Gywnn (2007, 1st ballot, 100.0%)
Cal Ripken (2007, 1st ballot, 100.0%)
Mark McGwire (2007, 1st ballot, 80.0%)
Tim Raines (2008, 1st ballot, 81.8%)
Dwight Evans (2008, 12th ballot, 46.2, 50.0, 41.7, 58.3, 60.0, 41.7, 69.2, 72.7, 73.3, 63.6, 66.7, 81.8%)
Rickey Henderson (2009, 1st ballot, 100.0%)
Barry Larkin (2010, 1st ballot, 94.4%)
Roberto Alomar (2010, 1st ballot, 88.9%)
Edgar Martinez (2010, 1st ballot, 83.3%)

2009 Ballot:


2009 Totals:


2010 players with no votes.
Kevin Appier
Rod Beck
Ellis Burks
Andres Galarraga
Pat Hentgen
Mike Jackson
Eric Karros
Shane Reynolds
Todd Zeile

2010 N00bs (Baseball reference doesn't have them, so I used the HOF site):
Wilson Alvarez
Carlos Baerga
Jeff Bagwell
Bret Boone
Kevin Brown
John Franco
Juan Gonzalez
Marquis Grissom
Al Leiter
Tino Martinez
Raul Mondesi
Hideo Nomo
John Olerud
Rafael Palmeiro
Troy Percival
Benito Santiago
Ugueth Urbina
Larry Walker

I must be 197. I see the list of inducted players, and the newbies, but no list of players who are still eligible but not inducted.

I'm trying to dig up the old JPG's I had

Those will be up soon.

Yeah, URI. You may need to put the IMG of that voting chart in there.

EDIT- Ah, nevermind, you got it...I think, FYI, that the latest charts we did are up in the other thread...

bump

Since Munson is on this list, I am copying over my first entry from the Interim HOF thread, which is pertinent to Munson and, eventually, to Ted Simmons:

While waiting for URI to re-establish the HOF thread, I have an apology for Tudor and the other Munson supporters on the current ballot:

My apologies for my unlove for Munson. Looking at Munson vs Sanguillen, I saw that they had very similar rates in every area but walks, so I assumed that the large gap in OPS was largely due to Sanguillen being a pitiful walker. In fact, aside from that gap, Sanguillen had higher single, double and triple rates, with Munson having a higher HR rate.

To assign some texture to those rates I calculated a weighted OBP taking the various rates and multiplied them by TangoTiger's golden ratio (0.7 for a walk, 1.0 for a single, 1.7 for a double, 2.0 for a triple, and 3.0 for a HR). Here were the results:

These rates adjust for some of the inequities in OPS, adding value to walks, doubles and home runs, although they aren't adjusted for park or era. For this reason, both Freehan and Munson are probably undervalued fairly significantly, and Porter is probably overvalued (as may be Fisk).

Munson falls below the big five, but was a fairly significant offensive player, nonetheless. In the comparison with Sanguillen, he gained 21 points for HR rate and 17 points for walk rate, which more than made up for Sanguillen's 19-point
advantage in singles rate and 9-point advantage in doubles/triples.

From a defensive standpoint, Munson was indeed superior. Here is a rehash of defensive rates for this period:

Munson had the highest throw-out rate in this era, even higher than Bench. His error rate was high, but not much higher than Sanguillen.

In retrospect, I think I can live with a draft-Munson effort and will probably vote for him next time.

Here is the Expansion Era Pitcher Blurb which now includes some cursory rate analysis, but doesn't include individual pitcher analysis, mostly just raw numbers.
The main stats lines are sorted by ERA+, but we need to go beyond that to examine some pitchers, particularly Hunter. Catfish is way, way down on the ERA+ list, but his rates were excellent, with the exception of his HR rate. There is no statistical explanation for this. Comparing him with Jenkins, who also had a high HR rate with similar defensive support and generally inferior hit rates, the only conclusion I can come up with is that Jenkins (like Robin Roberts in the previous era) must have given up a higher percentage of solo HR's whereby Catfish must have been giving up many more 3-run HR's to have had his ERA affected that way. Its fairly baffling. Anyway here are the numbers, with a few comments added:

Here are the raw numbers for starting pitchers who played the most significant parts of their careers between 1961-1974, sorted by ERA+. I did not include any pitchers with ERA+ of below 100, which excludes a few interesting pitchers like Woody Fryman, Mike Torrez, Earl Wilson and Jim Lonborg. I included short-career guys with 100+ wins and good or interesting ERA+ and/or rates. I will stress again that these numbers are raw, and unanalyzed. I need to pull peak performances, look closely at park factors, run support, normalize some rates, and other things. Here are a few preliminary observations, though:

It has always been assumed that the 1960’s were a period of pitching dominance, which resulted in low runs, low BA’s and inflated pitching statistics. I think it was more complex than that. My first observation was that pitching didn’t change in 1961, hitting did. My basis for this is:

1. Strikeouts were cheap. In the 1940’s and 50’s, the top-echelon pitchers were averaging about .120 K/PA. Groundball pitchers often averaged below .100. In the 1960’s, the average was above .150 K/PA, and even the slinkiest junkballers were getting K’s at a rate of .120 or better. I think batters were swinging more freely in the 1960’s.

2. Contact hitting got better in the 1960’s. When not walking or striking out batters in the post-war period, the top echelon pitchers were averaging about .010 H/CE better than pitchers in the 60’s and 70’s.

3. Home run rates increased by about .005 HR/PA on the average.

Having said that, although strikeouts were cheap, they were probably more important in preventing runs then they had been in the earlier era.

Park factors were also probably more significant in the 1960’s than they had been in the past. All of the top pitchers in the 1960’s and 70’s pitched in spacious parks like Chavez Ravine, Busch Stadium II, Memorial Stadium and Shea Stadium. Since the home run was dominant, pitchers who pitched in hitting friendly parks were severely penalized, including guys like Fergie Jenkins, Steve Carlton and Jim Bunning. Gibson was a plenty good pitcher at old Busch Stadium, for instance, which was an extreme hitters park. He was winning 18-20 games a year there, with an ERA in the very low 3.00’s. His ERA dropped .63 in 1966 which was the first year of the new stadium, which was a pitching neutral park. His HR Rate dropped incredibly, from .028 in 1965 to .018 in 1966, decreasing to .009 by 1968. He had his dominant years from 1967 onwards. So he was quite probably robbed of even higher greatness by having to pitch his first seven seasons in a bandbox. Bunning’s HR rate dropped pretty signicantly (from .022 to .019) after he was traded from Detroit to Philadelphia.

Some other quick observations:

- I had no idea that Andy Messersmith was as good as he was.
- Marichal requires much more analysis. He had a lot of injury problems, and adapted around them, so his rates are all over the place. He was probably very Pedro-like in his repertoire and approach to pitching.
- Carlton suffers in ERA plus for an interesting reason. He challenged the hitters, but when he didn’t strike them out (or rarely, walked them), they hit him pretty hard – to the tune of a .297 contact average. You have to go down to the bottom of the list to find pitchers who had contact averages that bad.
- Palmer had good all-around numbers, but struck out very few hitters. Nobody hit him very hard, so I suspect he was aided significantly by the Oriole defense.
- Bunning is definitely on the borderline with ERA+ and W/L numbers, but his rates are very good (except for his HR rate at Tiger Stadium). I think he adjusts to Drysdale numbers or better if you take into account park factors.
- Luis Tiant had almost exactly the same rates and cumulative numbers as Bunning, except that Bunning allowed slightly higher hit rate, and Tiant allowed a slightly higher walk rate. If Bunning is in, then so should Tiant be.
- Catfish Hunter is down near the bottom of the ERA+ list for one reason – a .027 HR rate.
- Denny McLain is at the bottom of the list for the same reason. He was a righty at Tiger Stadium, to boot. When they lowered the mound after the ’69 season, the league teed off on McLain and sent him to rehab.
- Oh but how I loved Dean Chance, Jim Maloney and Sudden Sam as a kid.




In this era, I added some raw number ratios to help isolate pitcher characteristics. I preferred these over some of the sabermetric numbers because they were directly attributable (to at least some extent)to player traits.

1. Hit Success: To measure hit success, I used raw H/BF numbers. This tells us how often a pitcher was tagged for hit. Here are the leaders in that category (below .215):

The Bad (H/BF over .235):


As in all eras, low hit rates in the Expansion Era were achieved mainly by the dominant strikeout pitchers, like McDowell, Koufax, Maloney, Gibson, and Seaver. A few guys, however, show up here without high K-rates, including Palmer, Hunter and Tiant. These
guys had some other filthy pitches that kept hitters off-balance.

2. Contact Quality: To compensate for the advantage strikeout pitchers had, I subtracted non-contact events (K, BB, HBP) from BF then recomputed the ratio. This gives a better indication of how hard a pitcher was hit when the batter made contact. Here are the leaders in that category (below .280):



The Bad (H/CE above .295):


Here again, we see the guys with filthy, non-strikeout stuff filter to the top, the same Messersmith, Palmer and Hunter.

3. Walk Rates: For the many pitchers without great stuff, the key to success in this era was preventing walks. Here are the guys with walk rates below .070:



The Bad (BB/BF above .090):



Many dominant pitchers end up on the bottom of this list, which absolutely killed them. This list is generally populated by control guys, but its interesting to note that several power pitchers are also on this list, including Jenkins, Bunning, Hunter and Drysdale. These are the guys who challenged hitters constantly.

4. HR Rates: Unfortunately, I did not have available a better metric to measure how well batters slugged against certain pitchers, so HR/BF is the best I can do. It is park dependent, of course. Here are the pitchers with the lowest HR Rates (below .015):



The Bad: (HR/BF over .023):


This is a very interesting list. There are a few power pitchers here, including McDowell, Barber, Gibson and Maloney who surpsingly didn’t give up many HR’s. Its also a place for sinkerballers, such as John and Stottlemyre. The bottom guys include many power pitchers who challenged hitters often in smaller ballparks, such as McLain, Hunter, Bunning and Lolich.

5. K Rates: The best strikeout pitchers in this group (+.170) were:



The Bad: (K/BF rate of .125 or lower):


Koufax and McDowell were absolute killers. Career K-rates over 200 were unprecedented in history, really, until the 1960’s.

VAL-

One of the projects I'm working on this offseason is coming up with a system to put baseball players into like "families"...kinda like James did with pitchers in the NBJHBA.

Like, I want to see if the set of players that are like Kevin Millar all have success against Jose Contreras, or if it's a individual statistical blip.

Your Marichal/Pedro comparison reminded me of that, since not only does James say that they were similar, but my uncle told me that Pedro reminded him a lot of Juan Marichal.

Aside from Marichal's high leg kick and extreme arching of the back, I'd say your uncle is correct. They had very similar arsenals of pitches, and approached hitters the same way - with guile and aggression.

1985 BALLOT

Lou Brock
Walker Cooper
Elston Howard
Jim "Catfish" Hunter
Mickey Lolich
Ernie Lombardi
Roger Maris
Sam McDowell
Tony Oliva
Vada Pinson


* That's right -- THREE catchers. It's by far the most under-represented position in our hall. This trio was among the best, and all were better than Munson.

* Vada Pinson is one of the most underrated players in my baseball viewing lifetime.

* Bring on the Sam McDowell arguments.

* I'm admittedly on the fence with Maris, but in the end I was swayed to include him. Though his support here has been in a downward spiral here since his debut, and with 4 ballots left I doubt my vote will stem the tide...

Here's my 1985 ballot :
Lou Brock
Norm Cash
Walker Cooper
Elston Howard
Ernie Lombardi
Thurman Munson
Tony Oliva
Vada Pinson

I pretty much agree with the Dog's selections and reasoning, but here is where I differ. I absolutely despised Munson when he was playing, but there is no way he was significantly worse than Cooper, Howard, or Lombardi. I think all four belong, but, as obnoxious as Munson was, if forced to choose I would rank him the best of the four, taking into account offense, defense, and playing time. Consider the following (granted, the end of Munson's decline phase never took place because of the plane crash):

Career Innings Caught
Lombardi 12,367
Munson 11,072
Cooper 9,889
Howard 9,499

Career OPS+
Lombardi 125
Munson 116
Cooper 116
Howard 108

Career Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA) as a catcher
Munson +85
Howard +72
Cooper -26
Lombardi -120

Career Defensive Win Shares/1000 Innings
Howard 6.45
Munson 5.58
Cooper 4.89
Lombardi 4.20

Sam McDowell's walk rate, career ERA+, and total number of games started are all low enough that I can't vote for him.

I like Roger Maris, but he had those two great MVP seasons and not much else. A corner outfielder with a relatively short career and a career OPS+ of 127 is not Hall-worthy IMO.

Lolich and Hunter each had a career OPS+ of only 104, so I'm not voting for them this time. With Hunter, perhaps the argument could be made that a guy who throws a ton of innings in pitchers' parks for winning teams is underrated by ERA+. Then again, he was done by age 33 and wasn't as good as Tiant or Blyleven, so I'll hold off on him for now.

Its one of the things I find doing the detailed rate analysis. There are certainly large groupings that you can isolate. Sinkerballers, for instance, are very evident. There are certain templates that become evident, and you find some pretty cool similarities. I think, however, that its perhaps too easy to heap guys into big categories like James does, because you end up having to force guys into a grouping. What's really cool is when you find uniqueness. I don't think there was ever, for instance, another pitcher with a template like Andy Messersmith. I also found some cool differences between Niekro and other Knuckleballers - Niekro got a lot of ground balls, whereas most knuckleballers are fly ball pitchers.
So yeah, you can group, but what you look for are the characteristices that isolate guys as unique.

I'm going to do a detailed, year-by-year analysis on Marichal, because he did change his style over time. One of the most evident things about Marichal (similar to Pedro) was his really low walk total. Having a repertoire like them and throwing strikes is definitely unique.

Yeah, I wouldn't be dogmatic about it, shoehorning people into "families" just so they belong to a grouping.

I just would like to be able to track career trending of low power, good eye, good field firstbasemen and see if there is a set of pitchers that have success/struggle against them...like the Travis Lee/Doug Mientkiewicz group vs. the Chen Wang/Carlos Silva group of pitchers.

Ballot:
Dave Bancroft
Walker Cooper
Ellie Howard
Ernie Lombardi
Bill Mazeroski
Andy Messersmith
Tony Oliva
Vada Pinson

As I recall, I voted for Bancroft and Mazeroski last time since we more or less decided to weight defensive skills in inducting Aparicio. I think some of us weren't voting for them because we thought there would be a separate wing for defensive players.

I also kept Brock off my original ballot in the old thread because I argued that he was something of an accumulater later in his career, although I am sure he will get in without my vote.

I will vote for Munson (hence my apology) later, but I would like to clear the log jam of catchers first. I just think that four catchers on my ballot is too many right now.

Oliva and Pinson were great line drive hitters, and underappreciated, IMO.

I am still thinking about Hunter. I wish I knew more about why his ERA+ was so low.

I love Sam McDowell, but after re-doing my blurb, I think that if there is one short-career guy who I would advocate from this period it would be Messersmith. It can certainly be argued that his ERA numbers (and HR rates) were buoyed by him playing most of his effective career in L.A., but he still had filthy stuff. He wasn't as dominant as McDowell by any means, but he was as good an all-around pitcher as there was. Nolan Ryan remarked when he was traded from the Mets to L.A. that he thought Messersmith was as good as Seaver. That's pretty high praise. Unfortunately, all of that talent was obscured by the whole free agency business, and of course, his premature demise due to arm trouble.

Here is the detailed career rate analysis on Marichal. I know we've already elected him, but its very interesting.

Juan Marichal

Marichal was once referred to as a fine-tuned machine that relied on perfect conditioning to pitch at his
Highest level. At his best, he was considered to have five effective pitches, a fastball, curve, slider,
Screwball and sinker, each of which could be thrown at two different speeds from three different arm angles
for a total of 30 different pitches. He had pinpoint control, which was amazing given his repertoire and
his high leg kick.

Hit rates are somewhat difficult to analyze because of the constant injuries. He appeared to have been in a learning mode during his first three seasons, hitting his dominant phase in 1963 at age 25. He probably remained in his dominant plateau for five seasons (1963-1967) at about the following levels:
The 1967 season seems to have been a transitional season for Marichal. He missed much of spring training due to contract negotiations, so had a poor start to the season. He improved in mid-season, but was ultimately shut down with a hamstring injury (to his left leg) in late August. He tried to pitch through that injury (which had occurred in early August) and he may have done some permanent physical damage. In 1968 and 1969, he pitched very well, but he was a different pitcher during those two years (aged 30 and 31). He seemed to have lost his dominance, as his hittability and K-rates never again approached his peak plateau rates. Interestingly, his HR rates lowered substantially during this period, which suggest that he may have been getting more ground outs. This is supported by lower ER/R ratios during that time frame. I think perhaps he lost some of his velocity, either as a result of the 1967 season or through aging, so he made adjustments. Those seasons were excellent in their own right, but he was clearly a different pitcher.

In 1970 he suffered an allergic reaction to penicillin during spring training. He reportedly tried to return from the illness too soon, and suffered a recurrence of his back problems. He also suffered from arthritis afterwards. He had one decent season in 1971 at age 33 before age caught up with him.

In his prime, he was considered to be the best right-handed pitcher in the game, and some believed he was a better pitcher than Koufax. Comparisons to Pedro seem appropriate for his supreme repertoire and guile. His HR rates were never good, but since his opponent on-base average during his peak years was in the .230-.245 ranges, those HR’s never really hurt him.

1985 Ballot

L. Brock
E. Lombardi
R. Maris
S. McDowell
T. Oliva

The only difference between this ballot and the one I originally submitted in the old thread is the addition of Ernie Lombardi. Initially, his #'s just didn't seem HOF quality to me. But some of the arguments here, and on the web, have allowed me to see the error of my ways and realize the value of Lombardi as a catcher in the HOF, and how good his stats are relatively speaking. Lombardi is a lock.

Regarding the Maris vote, its more of a principle vote for me. The guy was never appeciated for what he did when he did it, and his record was taken away by steroids. I think my little vote here is the least I can do for him. Just my take.

Regarding the others, I just can't see it. Howard broke a lot of barriers, and had a very good career as a catcher (and will probably get in here anyway), but I can't give him my vote. Same goes for Cooper and Munson. Maybe at some point doen the road I will reconsider as I did here with Lombardi. But not right now.

Lou Brock
Walker Cooper
Elston Howard
Jim "Catfish" Hunter
Ernie Lombardi
Tony Oliva

Not a real inspiring ballot.

Lou Brock
Jim Hunter
Tony Oliva

Dave Bancroft
Norm Cash
Elston Howard
Ernie Lombardi

(Right, right: Brock, Munson, Oliva, etc. I have arguments against all of them, but I can't remember what they are. I'll need a week to get fully re-engaged, but the above four were the ones I had settled on that the time of the Great SoSH Crash v.3.0).

Lou Brock
Elston Howard
Catfish Hunter
Ernie Lombardi

Here is my detailed analysis on Andy Messersmith. While I don't for a minute believe that his 130 wins are enough to make him HOF caliber, I think there is a good argument to be made that he was, for 8 years, as good as or better than his contemporaries, including both Palmer and Seaver. I think he deserves some recognition.


The history of Andy Messersmith is, sadly, mostly taken up with his historic free agency in 1976 and his subsequent fall from near-greatness from injuries. In reality he was, for eight seasons, one of the best pitchers in baseball. He was perhaps the toughest pitcher in his era to hit, finishing with a lifetime H/CE of .258, 8 points lower than Jim Palmer and 20 points lower than the dominating pitchers of this era: Gibson, Seaver and Koufax. In addition to his hitability, he had the strikeout and walk rates of the dominators, with the ninth best K-rate (.178) and the fifth worst walk rate (.091) of this group. His peak rates were extremely consistent though his 8-year plateau:



His hit rates remained extremely constant (and excellent) throughout his career, in spite of his injuries. He had a three-pitch repertoire as a young pitcher, a wicked curve, good fastball, and hard slider. His rookie scouting report went, “He has two pitches you can’t hit, and one (presumably his curve) you can’t catch.” He later developed a very effective change-up and refined his curve with the Dodgers.

His first four effective years (1969-1972) with the Angels were characterized by dominant strikeout (over .200) and poor walk numbers (around .100), except for 1971. Ironically, 1971 was his only 20-win season in the A.L., although his K-rate dropped 50 points. His HR rate also dropped by about half (to .014) which seems to indicate that he probably made some adjustments over the course of the season.

He was something of a different pitcher with the Dodgers, lowering his walk and K-rates by about 20 points in the N.L. His hittability remained consistent over all of those years, supporting the notion that Messersmith could and did make adjustments to his repertoire to get guys out. He an extremely cerebral pitcher, who kept detailed notes of every pitch against every batter he ever faced.

The only fluctuating statistic was his HR rate, which varied wildly from year to year (from .007 to .026), but seemed to have had little to no impact on his run allowances, probably because he allowed so few hits.

In the end, the injuries did him in, but this wasn’t a simple twist of fate. In addition to being a driven, intelligent man, he was also reticent and stubborn. His serious arm troubles were a product of his drive and stubbornness. In 1970, his shoulder problems developed from a rib injury which he had tried to pitch through for two months without telling anyone. The elbow problems that effectively ended his career in 1976 again resulted from adjustments he made trying to pitch through a hamstring injury.

In summary, Messersmith’s rates were unlike any pitcher in his era and perhaps in all of recorded baseball history. He was incredibly consistent in his ability to prevent hits throughout his entire career, and was seemingly unaffected by his relatively high walk rates and wide variability in HR rates (not to mention injuries). In sharp contrast to conventional rate analysis knowledge, Messersmith seemed to be able to control the ability to prevent contact (often considered to be random). He was widely considered to have had the best “stuff” by his contemporaries. Nolan Ryan commented when he was traded from the Mets to the Angels in 1970, that he thought Messersmith was better than Seaver. He compares favorably to both the dominating pitchers of his era (including Seaver) and to the best of the pitcher’s pitchers, including Palmer as a contemporary. He didn’t have a long career, nor was it particularly successful, pitching for some fairly poor teams most of his career, but he was a truly great pitcher in his day, certainly worthy of more recognition for his performance, not just his pioneering work.

Regarding Catfish Hunter, I have gone back and forth several times as to whether or not he should be in the HOF. The main problem we have with him was his ERA, which really doesn't seem to be consistent with his won-loss record. Having finished the blurb on him, what I see is a five-year performance spike between 1971-1975 in which he was very, very good - as good as anybody around. The rest of his career - a six year learning phase, and a four year rapid decline, are relatively meaningless, but the main reason why his ERA numbers sucked. The question is, was that five year spike enough to push him over the top?

I think so. Catfish would be the first one to tell you he wasn't as good a pitcher as Palmer, or Seaver, or Ryan, or even Vida Blue. That may be true, but its hard to find many guys, even in the HOF, who had five seasons that good. He may not have had the best stuff, but he was a winner.

Anyway, here's the blurb:


Catfish Hunter never pitched a game in the minor leagues. He was signed out of high school, and reported to the A’s spring training after recovering from a serious hunting accident where he was shot in the foot with a shotgun. He had been a high school legend in the coastal region of North Carolina, throwing 5 no-hitters in his high school career. He was phased into the rotation during his rookie season and performed pretty well, going 8-8. He showed an above average fastball with good lateral movement, and a good curve which reportedly broke twice, tailing off with slider movement at the very end. He also had a pretty good changeup. From the start, he was a fearless pitcher, and constantly challenged hitters throughout his career.

He learned to pitch in the major leagues, and it shows. In high school he had been a sidearm pitcher, and although he learned to pitch overhand during his senior year, he still threw sidearm some of the time until 1967, when he switched to overhand only. The result of that conversion showed a marked increase in his strikeout rate, and he had a moderately successful season in 1967 with an ERA+ of 114, but for most of his first six seasons with the A’s, he was fairly mediocre.

Catfish was always an extreme fly ball pitcher, and his success in earned runs was always linked to his HR rate. In the four seasons in which he gave up HRs at a rate of .020 or less, his ERA+ was 132. In his eight other full seasons, his ERA+ was 95.

In 1971, he made some further adjustments to his delivery, primarily with his arm/hand location during his windup. I’m not sure if this was the only reason, but for the next five years he was an excellent pitcher, winning 20 games each season. He wasn’t as dominant as the great pitchers of his era, but he lowered his walk rates, contact hitting rates, and (except for 1973) his HR rates by about 10 percent.

Of the seasons in which Catfish won 20 games, three could be considered dominant seasons: 1972, 1974 and 1975, in which he was as good as any pitcher in the game. His 1971 season was excellent, but a notch below the other three with slightly worse walk, HR and contact rates. His 1973 season was marred by a reversion to his earlier HR rates (.038), but he still won 21 games. During those five seasons, his rates were as follows:
Catfish Hunter’s career can be divided into three clear phases. During his first six years, he was still learning to pitch, and didn’t do it tremendously well. He showed flashes of brilliance, including his perfect game in 1968 and three somewhat dubious all-star selections. His peak phase lasted five and a half years, in which he won 128 games, a Cy Young Award, and five trips to the post-season, going 8-3. Afterwards, he went into rapid decline with arm problems and diabetes.

In 1976, his second year with the Yankees, he developed recurrent arm troubles. He had three more subpar seasons and retired after the 1979 season, at age 33.

1985 Ballot

Lou Brock
Walker Cooper
Curt Flood
Catfish Hunter
Ernie Lombardi
Bill Mazeroski
Maury Wills

Break...

Totals will be up in 10 with the 1986 people.

1986 BALLOT

Norm Cash
Walker Cooper
Elston Howard
Jim "Catfish" Hunter
Mickey Lolich
Roger Maris
Willie McCovey
Sam McDowell
Tony Oliva
Vada Pinson

"Stretch" is a slam dunk, and he's the only newbie worth consideration.

And I'm glad I can throw Norm Cash back on the ballot.

It's time for the 5-year update on our current Hall:

HALL OF FAMERS BY POSITION (through 1985)
160 players total:

P [45] : Walter Johnson, Cy Young, Christy Mathewson, Pete "Grover Cleveland" Alexander, Mordecai "Kevin" Brown, Kid Nichols, Ed Walsh, Charley (Old Hoss) Radbourn, Dazzy Vance, Lefty Grove, Eddie Plank, Joe McGinnity, Addie Joss, Rube Waddell, Carl Hubbell, Al Spalding, Dizzy Dean, Tim Keefe, Amos Rusie, John Clarkson, Stan Coveleski, Carl Mays, Lefty Gomez, Bob Feller, Hal Newhouser, Pud Galvin, Johnny Sain*, Ted Lyons, Bob Lemon, Wes Ferrell, Red Ruffing, Urban Shocker, Tommy Bridges, Warren Spahn, Satchel Paige*, Sandy Koufax, Robin Roberts, Whitey Ford, Early Wynn, Don Drysdale, Hoyt Wilhelm, Jim Bunning, Bob Gibson, Juan Marichal, Billy Pierce

C [10]: Mickey Cochrane, Roger Bresnahan, Gabby Hartnett, Buck Ewing, Bill Dickey, Roy Campanella, Yogi Berra, Bill Freehan, Joe Torre*, Ernie Lombardi

1B [13]: George Sisler, Cap Anson, Lou Gehrig, Dan Brouthers, Roger Connor, Jimmie Foxx, Bill Terry, Hank Greenberg, Frank Chance*, Johnny Mize, Orlando Cepeda, Harmon Killebrew*, Dick Allen

2B [13]: Eddie Collins, Nap Lajoie, Rogers Hornsby, Frankie Frisch, Tony Lazzeri, Charlie Gehringer, Joe Gordon, Bobby Doerr, Bid McPhee, Jackie Robinson, Larry Doyle, Billy Herman, Nellie Fox

3B [12]: John McGraw*, Pie Traynor, Frank "Home Run" Baker, Jimmy Collins, Stan Hack, Heinie Groh, Deacon White*, Bob Elliott, Eddie Mathews, Ken Boyer, Ron Santo, Brooks Robinson

SS [17]: Honus Wagner, George Davis, Joe Cronin, Bill Dahlen, Arky Vaughan, John (Monte) Ward*, Luke Appling, Lou Boudreau, Vern Stephens, Jack Glasscock, George Wright, Pee Wee Reese, Bobby Wallace, Ernie Banks*, Hughie Jennings, Joe Sewell*, Luis Aparicio

LF [18]: Ed Delahanty, Goose Goslin, Jesse Burkett, Al Simmons, Joe Medwick, Fred "Cap" Clarke*, Zach Wheat, Sherry Magee, Ralph Kiner, Bob Johnson, Jim O'Rourke, Ted Williams, Stan Musial*, Minnie Minoso, Billy Williams, Harry Stovey*, Frank Howard, Lou Brock

CF [16]: Ty Cobb, Tris Speaker, Billy Hamilton, Hack Wilson, Hugh Duffy*, Earl Averill, Joe DiMaggio, Wally Berger, Larry Doby, Paul Hines, Duke Snider, Richie Ashburn, Pete Browning*, Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Jimmy Wynn

RF [15]: Babe Ruth, Willie Keeler, Sam Crawford, Harry Heilmann, Michael (King) Kelly*, Paul Waner, Mel Ott, Kiki Cuyler, Elmer Flick, Enos Slaughter, Sam Thompson, Roberto Clemente, Al Kaline, Henry Aaron, Frank Robinson

other [1]: Connie Mack

*Denotes significant time at other positions or non-MLB player status, which probably contributed to induction. (McGraw = mgr; Kelly = C; Duffy = LF/RF; Ward = P/2B; Chance = mgr; Sain = coach; White = C; Musial = 1B/RF/CF; Paige = Negro Leagues; Browning = LF; Banks = 1B, Sewell = 3B, Torre = 1B/3B, Killebrew = 3B, Stovey = 1B/RF)


Players in our Hall that aren't in the real Hall (29):
Bill Dahlen [SS], Stan Hack [3B], Joe Gordon [2B], Sherry Magee [LF], Carl Mays [P], Wally Berger [CF], Bob Johnson [LF], Vern Stephens [SS], Heinie Groh [3B], Johnny Sain [P], Larry Doyle [2B], Deacon White [3B], Jack Glasscock [SS], Paul Hines [CF], Wes Ferrell [P], Bob Elliott [3B], Urban Shocker [P], Tommy Bridges [P], Minnie Minoso [LF], Pete Browning [CF], Ken Boyer [3B], RON SANTO [3B], Billy Pierce [P], Dick Allen [1B], Bill Freehan [C], Harry Stovey [LF/1B], Frank Howard [LF], Joe Torre [C/1B/3B], Jimmy Wynn [CF]

Eligible Players in the real Hall that aren’t in our Hall (retired by 1979) (40):
Dave Bancroft, Jake Beckley, Chief Bender, Jim Bottomley, Max Carey, Jack Chesbro, Earle Combs, Johnny Evers, Red Faber, Rick Ferrell, Burleigh Grimes, Chick Hafey, Jesse Haines, Harry Hooper, Waite Hoyt, Catfish Hunter*, Monte Irvin, Travis Jackson, George Kell, Joe Kelley, George Kelly, Chuck Klein, Freddie Lindstrom, Heinie Manush, Rabbit Maranville*, Rube Marquard, Bill Mazeroski, Tommy McCarthy, Herb Pennock*, Sam Rice, Eppa Rixey, Phil Rizzuto, Edd Roush, Ray Schalk, Red Schoendienst, Joe Tinker, Lloyd Waner, Mickey Welch, Vic Willis, Ross Youngs
(* = voted in by Baseball writers)



HALL OF FAMERS BY ERA (through 1985)

19th Century - 30 players
P:  8 - Young*, Nichols, Radbourn, Spalding, Keefe, Rusie, Clarkson, Galvin
C:  1 - Ewing
1B: 3 - Anson, Brouthers, Connor
2B: 1 - McPhee
3B: 2 - McGraw, D.White
SS: 5 - Davis*, Ward, Wright, Glasscock, Jennings
LF: 4 - Delahanty, Burkett, O’Rourke, Stovey
CF: 4 - Hamilton, Duffy, Hines, Browning
RF: 2 - Kelly, Thompson
 [*= Young and Davis could be considered deadball era players.]

Deadball era (1901-19) - 28 players
P:  9 - Johnson, Mathewson, Alexander*, Brown, Walsh, Plank, McGinnity, Joss, Waddell
C:  1 - Breshanan
1B: 1 - Chance
2B: 3 - E.Collins, Lajoie, Doyle
3B: 3 - Baker, J.Collins, Groh
SS: 3 - Dahlen*, Wagner, Wallace
LF: 3 - Clarke, Wheat, Magee
CF: 2 - Cobb, Speaker*
RF: 3 - Keeler*, Crawford, Flick
  [*=Dahlen and Keeler could be considered 19th Cent. players; Alexander and Speaker
     could be considered inter-war players.]

Inter-war era (1920-43) - 46 players
P: 12 - Vance, Grove, Hubbell, Dean, Coveleski, Mays, Gomez, Lyons, Ferrell, Ruffing, Shocker, Bridges
C:  4 - Cochrane, Hartnett, Dickey, Lombardi
1B: 5 - Sisler, Gehrig, Foxx, Terry, Greenberg
2B: 6 - Hornsby, Frisch, Lazzeri, Gehringer, Gordon*, Herman
3B: 2 - Traynor, Hack
SS: 4 - Cronin, Appling, Vaughan, Sewell
LF: 4 - Goslin, Simmons, Medwick, B.Johnson
CF: 4 - Wilson, Averill, DiMaggio*, Berger
RF: 5 - Ruth, Heilmann, Ott, Waner, Cuyler
  [*=Gordon and DiMaggio could be considered post-war players]

Post-war/Integration era (1944-60) - 31 players
P: 10 - Feller, Newhouser, Sain, Lemon, Spahn, Paige*, Roberts, Ford*, Wynn, Pierce
C:  2 - Campanella, Berra
1B: 1 - Mize*
2B: 3 - Doerr*, J.Robinson, N.Fox
3B: 2 - Elliott, Mathews*
SS: 4 - Boudreau, Stephens, Reese, Banks
LF: 4 - Kiner, T.Williams, Musial, Minoso
CF: 4 - Doby, Snider, Ashburn, Mantle
RF: 1 - Slaughter
  [*=Mize and Doerr could be considered inter-war players.]  
  [*=Paige probably should be considered an inter-war player.]  
  [*=Ford, Mathews and Banks could be considered expansion era players.]

Expansion era (1961-72) - 24 players
P:  6 - Koufax, Drysdale, Wilhelm*, Bunning, Gibson, Marichal
C:  2 - Freehan, Torre
1B: 3 - Cepeda, Killebrew, Allen
2B:
3B: 3 - Boyer*, Santo, B. Robinson
SS: 1 - Aparicio
LF: 3 - B. Williams, Howard, Brock
CF: 2 - Mays*, Wynn
RF: 4 - Clemente, Kaline, Aaron, F. Robinson
   [*=Boyer, Wilhelm & Mays could be considered post-war players].

You know, looking at that list, I think we might have gone overboard a bit with the Interwar players...

So far, it seems like we've been more selective than the Real Hall, being 11 guys behind their pace.

Maybe, but the inter-war period is the longest period in years. We've basically inducted two players per year from the inter-war, post-war, and expansion eras (and about 1.5 players per year during the deadball era, and something like a player per year from the 19th century). If anything, we're likely to go most overboard in the expansion era, considering that we've already inducted 24 players for that 12-year period.

We certainly didn't go as overboard in the Interwar Era than the BBWAA did, or the veterans committee. Something like 18 or so of the guys we haven't elected that the VC elected played primarily in that era. It was a time of great excess statistically, and a time in American history when we seemed to canonize athletes.

1986 Ballot:

Dave Bancroft
Walker Cooper
Ellie Howard
Catfish Hunter
Bill Mazeroski
Willie McCovey
Andy Messersmith
Tony Oliva
Vada Pinson

Basically my same ballot from last time, minus the electees and adding Hunter (from my blurb) and Stretch. Working on an outfield blurb, and just pulling the names earlier, I realized what an incredible golden age for outfielders the 1960's and 1970's were. It really makes it tough for guys like Pinson, Oliva and Roy White to be compared with the likes of F. Robby, Mays, Aaron, Clemente, et al.

1986 Ballot

R. Maris
W.McCovey
S. McDowell
T. Oliva

Weak weak ballot.

Bernie Carbo (1 vote for 1 swing)
Elston Howard
Catfish Hunter

Edit: Add Willie McCovey. Missed seeing him amongst the run of the mill other newbies.

Jim Hunter
Willie McCovey
Tony Oliva

1986 ballot:
Norm Cash
Walker Cooper
Elston Howard
Willie McCovey
Thurman Munson
Tony Oliva
Vada Pinson

1986
Walker Cooper
Elston Howard
Jim "Catfish" Hunter
Willie McCovey
Tony Oliva

I pushed the deadline to Thursday to try and get more votes.

I was nearly finished with the OF blurb when I lost half of the document during a power hit from the stupid storm, so I will have to re-do it. I lost about 20 hours of work

One cautionary note from what I saw so far: I love Tony Oliva, both for what he did and what he could have done if his knee hadn't given out on him. However, from a statistical point of view, there are a group of line drive hitters who are right there with him with every measure of hitting success who it will be difficult not to elect if we elect Oliva, including Vada Pinson, Reggie Smith, Cesar Cedeno, Rico Carty, Ken Singleton and Freddie Lynn. I am all for opening that door, but I think if one gets in, pretty much the whole group goes with him, at least in my book.

A few other realizations from the preliminary work:

1. Electing Jimmy Wynn was probably a huge mistake. I suppose we have to give him credit for playing so many games in the Astrodome, but there are 40 or 50 guys with better all-around numbers in this era than him. He really just walked a lot.

2. Lou Brock was far and away the most overrated player from this era, and one of the worst in the HOF by any measure other than accumulated numbers and stolen bases. His hitting rates were practically identical to Curt Flood, except for the stolen bases, and he was a terrible, terrible defensive outfielder.

3. Jim Rice deserves to be in the HOF. He suffers a bit from lack of walks in his OPS+ numbers, but when he made contact, he was in a class with the greats of the era.

Anyway, I'll post the numbers later in the week when I get it done.

One Word: AUTOSAVE

Yeah, yeah, lol. Unfortunately I am a dumbass and use Notepad (which doesn't autosave) while I am compiling stats, then transfer it over to Word for the writeups. I normally CTL-S every hour or so out of habit, but I was on a big roll yesterday and ... ah well ...

VAL, I look forward to seeing your OF work but your comments on Wynn and Rice surprise me. Are you adequately considering park effects? How about Rice's superlative "skill" at hitting into GIDPs?

1986 ballot

Dave Bancroft
Norm Cash
Elston Howard
Willie McCovey

Since VAL is working on outfielders, I'll post my old (and insanely unwieldy) outfielder chart:

I originally had a chart for each outfield position, but then decided that it’s silly not to compare LFs to RFs, and only a little less silly not to throw CFs into the mix too. But because I followed the same rules as I had in previous charts – including anyone in James’s top 30, in the real Hall, or in our Hall, there are well over 100 OFs on this chart. (I added Barry Bonds too, because I wasnt' sure he'd be coming back when I did the chart.)

I'll put the “career” chart in this post, and a “best years” chart in a later post. Again, I’ll post the glossary of terms:


Here’s the chart.



Bill James rankings
1-10
LF: T.Williams, Musial, Bonds, Henderson, Yastrzemski, Jackson, Simmons, Raines, Stargell, Minoso
CF: Mays, Cobb, Mantle, Speaker, DiMaggio, Snider, Griffey Jr., Puckett, Hamilton, Wynn
RF: Ruth, Aaron, F.Robinson, Ott, Rose, Gwynn, RJackson, Clemente, Waner, Crawford

11-20
LF: B.Williams, Delahanty, Medwick, Burkett, Brock, Goslin, Keller, Kiner, Howard, [Irwin], Belle
CF: Doby, Murphy, Berger, Averill, Roush, Ashburn, Lynn, Pinson, Wilson, Duffy
RF: Kaline, Slaughter, Winfield, Parker, Bonds, Heilmann, Murcer, Singleton, Dawson, R.Smith

21-30
LF: Magee, Clarke, Wheat, Sheckard, White, Burns, Rice, Kelley, Cruz, Manush
CF: Cedeno, Otis, Carey, D.DiMaggio, Butler, Ryan, W.Davis, Van Haltren, Thomas, Seymour
RF: Oliva, Evans, Flick, Staub, Guerrero, Colavito, Clark, Maris, Cravath, Walker


others on above chart
LF: Johnson (31), Carter (32), Foster (34), Luzinski (35), Gibson (36), O’Rourke (37), Stovey (39), Hafey (59)
CF: Oliver (31), Van Slyke (32), E.Davis (33), Combs (34), Flood (36), L.Waner (50)

Here's the other chart:






My charts agree with VAL on Brock -- I'm shocked he got in on the first ballot, considering that we never had any discussion about him and considering that he has no HOF-worthy numbers except for stolen bases.

My charts disagree with VAL about Wynn, who seems like a solid-to-borderline addition to the Hall. And Rice is basically the living definition of borderline; I wouldn't put him in. But I assume that his candidacy will actually be discussed, unlike Brock's. (Although I blame the lack of Brock discussion on the crash of this board -- Brock wasn't going to get in easily back in August, when we were all fully engaged in this).

1986 Ballot
Dave Bancroft
Elston Howard
Willie McCovey

I considered McCarver for his lifetime contribution, especially broadcasting...but something stopped me at the last second.

I wish I had saved some of the numbers I put up on Catfish, Tiant, Sudden Sam, and Lolich from before the crash. They'd have been good to add to. But it's hard for me to push anyone up above the others (except for some Tiant sentimentality). They all sit on the edge, good enough for their respective team halls of fame, but no the Hall of Fame.

I'm not incorporating park effects as a multiplier, but I am calculating road slugging vs overall slugging percentages. Here's a quick quiz:

Which of the following players had a higher road slugging percentage than overall slugging percentage?

a. Willie Horton
b. Jimmy Wynn
c. Carl Yastrzemski
d. Willie Mays
e. Al Kaline
f. Frank Robinson

A: None of the above. Every one of them had higher a SLG at home, despite what we might have expected from park effects of home field.

Here's another conundrum:

Did playing home game in Yankee Stadium help or hurt Roger Maris?

A: He hit more HR's and slugged higher on the road.

Much of this is counterintuitive. I'm not sure if park factors exist, at least in terms that we can use to adjust hitters' numbers to make sense of them. Perhaps players hit better in front of the home crowd, or in the friendly confines, or maybe they hit better if they sleep at home (and not party and carouse on the road). Perhaps they adapt their hitting styles to their home park. Perhaps great hitters are great hitters no matter where they play. At any rate, the rates are not park adjusted, but that information will be available for analysis.

Regarding GIDPs for Rice, I think there is a tendency for players who hit the ball really hard, run fairly slowly, and have lots of baserunners in front of them, to hit into a lot of double plays. I could include GIDP rates here, but I think to properly evaluate GIDP's you need to look at the whole lineup, so I think its worth a separate study at some point.

Where Rice does well is in isolated hitting. I'm pulling a couple of separate composites in this blurb: pure hitting, which is a weighted percentage of what happened when the batter made contact, and a walk-independent number which is their Total Offense percentage minus walks. These are generally curiousity composites, since walks are an important component of run generation, but there is also a side of me that thinks a walk is an unfavorable thing for some hitters, in the same way that it is with Barry Bonds. Walks aren't the same for all hitters, really. Walks in the 1960's were funny things. Most of the leadoff type hitters had very low walk rates, but these were guys who were expected to hit .300. This was also true of the latin players, such as Clemente, Cepeda, Oliva, etc. I think they just grew up in an environment where walking was anti-macho or something, but very few of the great latin players of the 1960's and 70's walked much. Lineup composition also affected walks.

Regarding Jimmy Wynn, he falls into a category of hitters like Harmon Killebrew, Frank Howard and a few others who basically did three things at the plate, 1.) walked, 2.) struck out, or 3.) hit a HR. Howard and Killebrew hit enough HR's to make the lack of contact hitting inconsequential. Wynn didn't. His HR rate fell into the same general range as players like Yaz, Kaline and Oliva, but he didn't do enough other things to make up for it. He comes out lacking in either comparison.

At any rate ... let me get back to it.

Rice does surprisingly well in both of these areas, with walks removed from the equation.

Park factors are used to adjust a player's value. If a player played in a park that had more run scoring, or less run scoring, than a value of his created runs need to be adjust upwards or downwards. It does not matter whether the player took advantage of his higher run scoring environment or not. If he played in the environment, his value is effected by it.

People get into trouble when they try to misuse park factors. Once people say that someone would have hit .310 in Fenway Park, or .260 in the Astrodome, that person should take a deep breath, and take a walk with their kids. They are talking virtual reality.


Assuming you are asking about value, walks are always important, and the value they are assigned has been determined through exhaustive linear regression of every game in major league history. There are some isolated walks that aren't important, just as there are doubles that aren't important.

The Latino players of the 1960s who did not walk were not good players, or were not as good as people thought. The fact that Clemente did not walk means that he was overrated as a player. He was still a great player, but his walk totals go in the negative column.


He was a very good defensive center fielder who played in some of the toughest hitting environments of all time.

I agree that park factors are misunderstood, but I think they are also misunderstood by the people who "understand" them. On a whole, park factors are useful, but they tell us little about the individual hitter who plays there. There is way too much complexity in an individual hitters abilities than can be adjusted by a single percentage park factor. Most of the hitters on this list transcend park factors. Park factors have some value in evaluating pitchers, but they apply to mediocre, average ballplayers, not most of the players we're evaluating here. In today's game we see this: park factors don't apply to Manny, or A-Rod, or Vlad, or Pujols. Those guys can hit the ball out of any park, over any fence in the league. Park factors are for Bucky Dent, or Kevin Millar. The same is true in the historical game, which is why Frank Robinson hit as many HR's in Memorial Stadium as in Crosley Field, why Willie Horton hit HR's in left field in Tiger Stadium, and why Yaz hit as more HR's in Fenway than he did on the road.



Again, I think you are assuming that all walks are essentially equal, when in fact they are not. The best hitters of this era hit the ball to or over the wall about 12% of their plate appearances, and walked about the same number of times. The value of those extra base hits was roughly 4 times as great as a walk, so a walk was MUCH less damaging. If you look at the 1960's, you don't find many "on-base machines." It wasn't part of the game back then. They guys who drew the most walks were the big hitters, not because they were looking for walks, but because pitchers pitched around those guys. Your typical lead-off hitters from that era, Brock, Flood, Willie Davis, etc were swinging away. They weren't drawing walks. So applying walk cosmology doesn't fit into the context of the game at the time.



Again, this is revisionist history, I think, or at least looking at this without regards for the context of the times. These guys were just swinging the bat because the value of what they could achieve through hitting was far greater than what they could get through walks. Their approach to the game was quite different in this era than it is today. Sure, they could have been more productive if they walked more, but that just wasn't done. I don't think that lessens their value.

No they don't. Park factors are used to help determine the value of run components. Try this example.

Player A. Plays in neutral park. Has an OPS of 900 at home and on the road.
Player B. Plays in a park which increases run scoring by 100%, the greatest run environment of all time. Despite this, he also has an OPS of 900 at home and on the road.

By your logic, Player A and Player B "transcend park factors", since neither player is aided by his home park. And, you would maintain, they are both equally good since the parks were irrelevant.

However, Player A is obviously and easily the better player. He has a 900 OPS in an environment where 5 runs will win a game and is therefore a star. Player B is actually useless at home, where you need 10 runs to win, and a good player on the road. The fact that Player B is not individually helped by his home park is actually BAD NEWS, since everyone else on earth is helped there. He basically is worthless at home.

Park factors (as well as era factors) are used to provide a context to the statistics. How a player would play somewhere else, or in a neutral site, is unknowable and irrelevant.

You are trying to guess how Willie Horton would have hit in Comiskey Park, or some such thing, and that is a cute little fantasy exercise, but I am trying to figure out how much value Willie Horton actually provided his actual teams. Park Effects are not transcended in such an exercise.


All due respect VAL, but this doesn't make any sense. That's like saying home runs were less valuable in 1915 because they didn't hit as many of them. In fact, home runs were more valuable in the 1910s that they have ever been, incredibly valuable.

Really, you know better than this, I know you do. Walks help a team score runs, and runs were even more scarce in the 1960s. The fact that there were teams that didn't figure this out in the 1960s doesn't mean that it wasn't the right way to go. This is actually a funny way to look at it. Are shutouts less important today than they used to be?

The value of a walk was not determined by throwing a dart at a dartboard. In Palmer's linear weights, the value of each event is actually calculated uniquely for each season in baseball history. The value of a walk in 1965 is determined by how much a walk led to run scoring in 1965. Not theoretically, but actually and truly. The answer, of course, is that a walk was more important in the 1960s than it is today, for the same reason that singles were and doubles were. You needed fewer runs to win the game.


The object of an offense is to score runs. The best way to score runs, in the days of Alexander Cartwright and Scott Posednick, is to get on base and avoid making outs. This is the basic truism of the game.