Full Version: SoSH Hall of Fame thread IV: 2011 The Future!
I'm going with him being a knuckleballer as the reason why rather than defensive support. He played most of his career on crappy ball teams - I doubt he pitched in front of good defense.
QUOTE (Vermonter At Large @ Jan 13 2006, 01:48 PM)
I'm also not voting for Niekro on my first ballot. One thing I have found is that ERA is a very flawed statistic (and ERA+ more flawed). Niekro had probably the worst residuals of any pitcher in modern baseball. By residuals, I am referring to WPs, PBs, SBs, BKs, ROEs and non-measureable defensive stress. I'm going to try to put those into better context for people, but actually he performed better than he should have given those residuals, and they didn't seem to result in too many more runs. This may have been due to some excellent defensive support, but I don't have all the numbers yet.
This is something I noted as well, and certainly it can be attributed to the knuckleball effect- he may be the most defensive-reliant pitcher of the modern era.
I'm having a lot of trouble, honestly, balancing out the value present in his success for many bad teams, his immense workload, and his raw run prevention against this tremendous mountain of, as VAL put it, defensive stress. I'm really looking forward to VAL's placing the numbers in better context for me. I'm wondering if I'm making a mountain out of a molehill where a very viable candidate is concerned, to be honest, but I didn't want to waste a vote.
I also forgot to vote for Rose on my second ballot, so I'm going back and editing in that.
1993
Rollie Fingers
Reggie Jackson
Sam McDowell
Tony Oliva
Vada Pinson
Peter Rose
Ditto re: Niekro. I will vote for him eventually, and probably very soon, but it took the writers a couple years and I can see why....
Just to make a final case here for Sam McDowell:
- 15 year career, stuck on some pretty mediocre Cleveland teams...
- 3.17 career ERA with 7 sub 3.00 seasons (8 including his abbreviated rookie season)
- I know it was a pitchers ERA, but his adjusted ERA still .50 better than the leagues over his career.
- 6 200 K seasons, 2 300 K seasons
- 2 of the top 12 K to Hit ratio seasons all time
- 4th all time K/innings pitched behing Koufax, Ryan, RJ
- led AL in Ks 5 times
Rollie Fingers
Reggie Jackson
Sam McDowell
Tony Oliva
Vada Pinson
Peter Rose
Ditto re: Niekro. I will vote for him eventually, and probably very soon, but it took the writers a couple years and I can see why....
Just to make a final case here for Sam McDowell:
- 15 year career, stuck on some pretty mediocre Cleveland teams...
- 3.17 career ERA with 7 sub 3.00 seasons (8 including his abbreviated rookie season)
- I know it was a pitchers ERA, but his adjusted ERA still .50 better than the leagues over his career.
- 6 200 K seasons, 2 300 K seasons
- 2 of the top 12 K to Hit ratio seasons all time
- 4th all time K/innings pitched behing Koufax, Ryan, RJ
- led AL in Ks 5 times
Jeff and Lose, would you please tell us why you are not voting for Grich?
Here's a blurb on Niekro. I got Excel for Christmas, so I'm making it work for me, lol:
Phil Niekro
Here are the rate stats for Niekro. There are a lot of numbers to pore through, so I'll try to summarize.
The rates are all per batters faced. ToP is a core rating based on the weighted value of the offensive rates against him. PRA is a projection of how many runs a pitcher should have given up using ToP as the base and factoring in outs. Its compared to R/BF and the differential (Diff) given as a +/- is the PRA subracted by the actual R/BF. The differential contains all the non-offensive residuals, such as steals, wild pitches, batters reaching on errors, passed balls, balks, defense, and luck. Generally, power pitchers tend to overachieve (have positive Diff), while groundball pitchers tend to underachieve.
We'll explain the numbers a little bit more here, then take a look at a few of Niekro's more interesting seasons, then discuss his career.
PRA and R/BF: For pitchers, these numbers indicate the ultimate effectiveness of a season/career. I use the same rating scale for both, since they are reflections of the same thing. Generally, I consider numbers in the 111-120 range to be above average for this period, the 101-110 range to be very good, the 86-100 range to be excellent, and 85-below to be outstanding. By these measures, Niekro put together a very long string of sustained performance for 17 straight seasons, with only one season (1970) even approaching average. I can't say this for certain, because I don't have the entire set of major league pitchers in my spreadsheet yet, but I think its safe to say that this sustained performance is quite possibly unmatched in the history of the game. Having said that, he also had only a handful of seasons that could be classified as excellent or dominant (1967-1969, 1972 maybe, 1974, 1978 and possibly 1984). He didn't have any bad seasons until his last two.
He had his one poor season in 1970, then put together three solid seasons for some less than stellar Braves' teams from 1971-1973.
Basic Pitching Rates: In general, Niekro's specialty was preventing solid contact. His singles rates are fairly high for most seasons, and his walk rates moderately high (but good for a knuckleballer). His doubles and HR rates, however, were almost always low. This is even more impressive considering that he pitched half of his career games in the "Launching Pad". As with nearly all knuckleballers, he probably gave up a lot of pop flies and choppy grounders. The latter, of course puts a fair amount of pressure on the infield defense. Although Niekro had over 3000 K's in his career, his K-rate (.147 K/BF - not listed above) was actually in the low-average range. BTW, he is certainly the only pitcher in the 3000K club with a K/BF rate of below .150 (he may be the only one below .200).
Differential: Although we don't have solid data on many of Niekro's residuals, we can project many of them. He was probably, like Wakefield today, neither an extreme GO or FO pitcher. As mentioned earlier, lack of solid contact by batters most likely yielded lots of infield choppers and more than a few outfield flies as well. His ROE rate was .013/BF (very high), and there were a few seasons where more batters reached base on an error than hit HRs off him. The Braves defense was a mixed bag during his tenure there, with some Gold-Glovers, such as Felix Millan, Clete Boyer, and Glenn Hubbard and some good fielders, like Darrel Evans, Bruce Benedict and Rafael Ramirez mixed in with some real stiffs, like Bob Horner and the Shortstops-du-jour of the 1970's. Here are his starting infields in Atlanta:
Note that many of the catchers in the 1960's enjoyed some really horrendous defensive reputations, including Torre, Williams, Didier and Pocoroba. We have to wonder how much of that negative reputation was generated by having to catch the knuckler. In general, these infields were all average or above average, and many (especially Evans) either led or were close to the league lead in RF, which may have had a lot to do with fielding behind Niekro. It should be noted that Niekro himself won 5 gold gloves as a pitcher. In summary, the residuals look fairly innocuous, since Niekro maintained positive Differentials in every season except 1974.
Niekro debuted as a starter in 1967 leading the league in ERA and enjoyed three excellent seasons from 1967-1969. In the large scale, however, his arrival was lost in the glitter of performances from guys like Bob Gibson, Denny McLain, Tom Seaver and Juan Marichal, among others. He was selected to only one AS Team during those three seasons, and only four others in his career, which speaks both of the depth of quality pitching during his career, and probably also to the lack of respect for the knuckler in general.
In 1974 he won 20 games for a third-place Braves team. He overachieved PRA by a huge .025 that season, primarily because his normal residual rates were exceedingly low (fewer PBs, WPs and ROEs than in his career, decent defense and, probably, a fair amount of luck). He continued to perform well for some horrible Braves' teams through the rest of the 1970s, including a 21-20 season for a last place team in 1979. He won 17 games for the division winners in 1983, then had one more decent season with the Yankees in 1984 before fading out during his last three years.
I don't think its accurate to describe Niekro as a great pitcher, but he was a damned good one for a very long time. He is certainly the greatest knuckleball pitcher of all time, and his consistency with that pitch was incredible. Season to season, he was lost among flashier, more dominant peers, but he was much, much more than just an accumulator. The lack of wear and tear on his arm certainly extended his career, but he did an awful lot with that arm as long as it lasted. He's not a first ballot guy, but he was certainly worthy of his HOF selection.
Phil Niekro
CODE
year team W-L ERA BFP BB/BF 1B/BF 2B/BF 3B/BF HR/BF ToP PRA R/BF Diff
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1964 ML1 0-0 4.80 66 0.106 0.182 0.015 0.015 0.015 0.359 0.114 0.152 -0.037
1965 ML1 2-3 2.89 324 0.080 0.198 0.012 0.000 0.015 0.320 0.102 0.099 0.003
1966 ATL 4-3 4.11 224 0.103 0.156 0.036 0.004 0.018 0.349 0.111 0.143 -0.032
1967 ATL 11-9 1.87 827 0.067 0.161 0.024 0.002 0.011 0.284 0.090 0.077 0.013
1968 ATL 14-12 2.59 1019 0.044 0.173 0.030 0.005 0.016 0.310 0.099 0.081 0.017
1969 ATL 23-13 2.56 1143 0.050 0.157 0.024 0.006 0.018 0.299 0.095 0.081 0.014
1970 ATL 12-18 4.27 980 0.069 0.154 0.026 0.006 0.041 0.379 0.121 0.127 -0.006
1971 ATL 15-14 2.98 1101 0.064 0.173 0.018 0.009 0.025 0.341 0.108 0.102 0.007
1972 ATL 16-12 3.06 1150 0.046 0.162 0.032 0.008 0.019 0.320 0.102 0.097 0.005
1973 ATL 13-10 3.31 1023 0.087 0.157 0.026 0.005 0.021 0.333 0.106 0.101 0.005
1974 ATL 20-13 2.38 1219 0.072 0.148 0.035 0.006 0.016 0.314 0.100 0.075 0.025
1975 ATL 15-15 3.20 1160 0.062 0.176 0.040 0.005 0.025 0.369 0.118 0.099 0.018
1976 ATL 17-11 3.29 1157 0.087 0.157 0.037 0.005 0.016 0.336 0.107 0.100 0.007
1977 ATL 16-20 4.03 1428 0.115 0.165 0.031 0.006 0.018 0.363 0.116 0.116 0.000
1978 ATL 19-18 2.88 1389 0.073 0.163 0.030 0.007 0.012 0.314 0.100 0.093 0.007
1979 ATL 21-20 3.39 1436 0.079 0.149 0.035 0.004 0.029 0.355 0.113 0.111 0.002
1980 ATL 15-18 3.63 1137 0.075 0.159 0.037 0.003 0.026 0.356 0.113 0.105 0.009
1981 ATL 7-7 3.10 578 0.097 0.159 0.029 0.009 0.010 0.324 0.103 0.097 0.006
1982 ATL 17-4 3.61 969 0.075 0.179 0.028 0.002 0.024 0.352 0.112 0.109 0.003
1983 ATL 11-10 3.97 888 0.118 0.181 0.035 0.002 0.020 0.386 0.123 0.106 0.017
1984 NYA 16-8 3.09 916 0.083 0.179 0.038 0.005 0.016 0.359 0.114 0.093 0.022
1985 NYA 16-12 4.09 955 0.126 0.137 0.039 0.006 0.030 0.392 0.125 0.115 0.010
1986 CLE 11-11 4.32 951 0.100 0.182 0.042 0.004 0.025 0.404 0.129 0.132 -0.004
1987 ATL 0-0 15.00 20 0.300 0.200 0.100 0.000 0.000 0.570 0.182 0.250 -0.068
1987 CLE 7-11 5.89 561 0.094 0.162 0.052 0.007 0.032 0.423 0.135 0.148 -0.013
1987 TOR 0-2 8.25 56 0.125 0.125 0.036 0.036 0.071 0.563 0.179 0.196 -0.017
Total 318-274 3.35 22677 0.080 0.164 0.032 0.005 0.021 0.347 0.110 0.103 0.007
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1964 ML1 0-0 4.80 66 0.106 0.182 0.015 0.015 0.015 0.359 0.114 0.152 -0.037
1965 ML1 2-3 2.89 324 0.080 0.198 0.012 0.000 0.015 0.320 0.102 0.099 0.003
1966 ATL 4-3 4.11 224 0.103 0.156 0.036 0.004 0.018 0.349 0.111 0.143 -0.032
1967 ATL 11-9 1.87 827 0.067 0.161 0.024 0.002 0.011 0.284 0.090 0.077 0.013
1968 ATL 14-12 2.59 1019 0.044 0.173 0.030 0.005 0.016 0.310 0.099 0.081 0.017
1969 ATL 23-13 2.56 1143 0.050 0.157 0.024 0.006 0.018 0.299 0.095 0.081 0.014
1970 ATL 12-18 4.27 980 0.069 0.154 0.026 0.006 0.041 0.379 0.121 0.127 -0.006
1971 ATL 15-14 2.98 1101 0.064 0.173 0.018 0.009 0.025 0.341 0.108 0.102 0.007
1972 ATL 16-12 3.06 1150 0.046 0.162 0.032 0.008 0.019 0.320 0.102 0.097 0.005
1973 ATL 13-10 3.31 1023 0.087 0.157 0.026 0.005 0.021 0.333 0.106 0.101 0.005
1974 ATL 20-13 2.38 1219 0.072 0.148 0.035 0.006 0.016 0.314 0.100 0.075 0.025
1975 ATL 15-15 3.20 1160 0.062 0.176 0.040 0.005 0.025 0.369 0.118 0.099 0.018
1976 ATL 17-11 3.29 1157 0.087 0.157 0.037 0.005 0.016 0.336 0.107 0.100 0.007
1977 ATL 16-20 4.03 1428 0.115 0.165 0.031 0.006 0.018 0.363 0.116 0.116 0.000
1978 ATL 19-18 2.88 1389 0.073 0.163 0.030 0.007 0.012 0.314 0.100 0.093 0.007
1979 ATL 21-20 3.39 1436 0.079 0.149 0.035 0.004 0.029 0.355 0.113 0.111 0.002
1980 ATL 15-18 3.63 1137 0.075 0.159 0.037 0.003 0.026 0.356 0.113 0.105 0.009
1981 ATL 7-7 3.10 578 0.097 0.159 0.029 0.009 0.010 0.324 0.103 0.097 0.006
1982 ATL 17-4 3.61 969 0.075 0.179 0.028 0.002 0.024 0.352 0.112 0.109 0.003
1983 ATL 11-10 3.97 888 0.118 0.181 0.035 0.002 0.020 0.386 0.123 0.106 0.017
1984 NYA 16-8 3.09 916 0.083 0.179 0.038 0.005 0.016 0.359 0.114 0.093 0.022
1985 NYA 16-12 4.09 955 0.126 0.137 0.039 0.006 0.030 0.392 0.125 0.115 0.010
1986 CLE 11-11 4.32 951 0.100 0.182 0.042 0.004 0.025 0.404 0.129 0.132 -0.004
1987 ATL 0-0 15.00 20 0.300 0.200 0.100 0.000 0.000 0.570 0.182 0.250 -0.068
1987 CLE 7-11 5.89 561 0.094 0.162 0.052 0.007 0.032 0.423 0.135 0.148 -0.013
1987 TOR 0-2 8.25 56 0.125 0.125 0.036 0.036 0.071 0.563 0.179 0.196 -0.017
Total 318-274 3.35 22677 0.080 0.164 0.032 0.005 0.021 0.347 0.110 0.103 0.007
Here are the rate stats for Niekro. There are a lot of numbers to pore through, so I'll try to summarize.
The rates are all per batters faced. ToP is a core rating based on the weighted value of the offensive rates against him. PRA is a projection of how many runs a pitcher should have given up using ToP as the base and factoring in outs. Its compared to R/BF and the differential (Diff) given as a +/- is the PRA subracted by the actual R/BF. The differential contains all the non-offensive residuals, such as steals, wild pitches, batters reaching on errors, passed balls, balks, defense, and luck. Generally, power pitchers tend to overachieve (have positive Diff), while groundball pitchers tend to underachieve.
We'll explain the numbers a little bit more here, then take a look at a few of Niekro's more interesting seasons, then discuss his career.
PRA and R/BF: For pitchers, these numbers indicate the ultimate effectiveness of a season/career. I use the same rating scale for both, since they are reflections of the same thing. Generally, I consider numbers in the 111-120 range to be above average for this period, the 101-110 range to be very good, the 86-100 range to be excellent, and 85-below to be outstanding. By these measures, Niekro put together a very long string of sustained performance for 17 straight seasons, with only one season (1970) even approaching average. I can't say this for certain, because I don't have the entire set of major league pitchers in my spreadsheet yet, but I think its safe to say that this sustained performance is quite possibly unmatched in the history of the game. Having said that, he also had only a handful of seasons that could be classified as excellent or dominant (1967-1969, 1972 maybe, 1974, 1978 and possibly 1984). He didn't have any bad seasons until his last two.
He had his one poor season in 1970, then put together three solid seasons for some less than stellar Braves' teams from 1971-1973.
Basic Pitching Rates: In general, Niekro's specialty was preventing solid contact. His singles rates are fairly high for most seasons, and his walk rates moderately high (but good for a knuckleballer). His doubles and HR rates, however, were almost always low. This is even more impressive considering that he pitched half of his career games in the "Launching Pad". As with nearly all knuckleballers, he probably gave up a lot of pop flies and choppy grounders. The latter, of course puts a fair amount of pressure on the infield defense. Although Niekro had over 3000 K's in his career, his K-rate (.147 K/BF - not listed above) was actually in the low-average range. BTW, he is certainly the only pitcher in the 3000K club with a K/BF rate of below .150 (he may be the only one below .200).
Differential: Although we don't have solid data on many of Niekro's residuals, we can project many of them. He was probably, like Wakefield today, neither an extreme GO or FO pitcher. As mentioned earlier, lack of solid contact by batters most likely yielded lots of infield choppers and more than a few outfield flies as well. His ROE rate was .013/BF (very high), and there were a few seasons where more batters reached base on an error than hit HRs off him. The Braves defense was a mixed bag during his tenure there, with some Gold-Glovers, such as Felix Millan, Clete Boyer, and Glenn Hubbard and some good fielders, like Darrel Evans, Bruce Benedict and Rafael Ramirez mixed in with some real stiffs, like Bob Horner and the Shortstops-du-jour of the 1970's. Here are his starting infields in Atlanta:
CODE
C 1B 2B SS 3B
1967 Torre (16) F.Alou Woodward Menke C.Boyer
1968 Torre (7) D.Johnson Millan S.Jackson C.Boyer
1969 Didier(27) Cepeda Millan S.Jackson C.Boyer*
1970 Tillman(10) Cepeda Millan S.Jackson C.Boyer
1971 E.Williams(15) H.Aaron Millan M.Perez D.Evans
1972 E.Williams(28) H.Aaron Millan* M.Perez D.Evans
1973 Oates(10) Lum Da.Johnson M.Perez D.Evans
1974 Oates(15) Da.Johnson M.Perez C.Robinson D.Evans
1975 Correll(16) E.Williams M.Perez L.Blanks D.Evans
1976 Correll(11) Montanez Gilbreath Chaney Royster
1977 Pocoroba(15) Montanez Gilbreath Rockett J.Moore
1978 Pocoroba(12) Murphy Royster Chaney Horner
1979 Benedict(8) Murphy Hubbard P.Frias Horner
1980 Benedict(11) Chambliss Hubbard L.Gomez Horner
1981 Benedict(9) Chambliss Hubbard R.Ramirez Horner
1982 Benedict(9) Chambliss Hubbard R.Ramirez Horner
1983 Benedict(4) Chambliss Hubbard R.Ramirez Horner
* Indicates Gold Glove Seasons
( ) Numbers in parentheses indicate PBs charged to catchers.
1967 Torre (16) F.Alou Woodward Menke C.Boyer
1968 Torre (7) D.Johnson Millan S.Jackson C.Boyer
1969 Didier(27) Cepeda Millan S.Jackson C.Boyer*
1970 Tillman(10) Cepeda Millan S.Jackson C.Boyer
1971 E.Williams(15) H.Aaron Millan M.Perez D.Evans
1972 E.Williams(28) H.Aaron Millan* M.Perez D.Evans
1973 Oates(10) Lum Da.Johnson M.Perez D.Evans
1974 Oates(15) Da.Johnson M.Perez C.Robinson D.Evans
1975 Correll(16) E.Williams M.Perez L.Blanks D.Evans
1976 Correll(11) Montanez Gilbreath Chaney Royster
1977 Pocoroba(15) Montanez Gilbreath Rockett J.Moore
1978 Pocoroba(12) Murphy Royster Chaney Horner
1979 Benedict(8) Murphy Hubbard P.Frias Horner
1980 Benedict(11) Chambliss Hubbard L.Gomez Horner
1981 Benedict(9) Chambliss Hubbard R.Ramirez Horner
1982 Benedict(9) Chambliss Hubbard R.Ramirez Horner
1983 Benedict(4) Chambliss Hubbard R.Ramirez Horner
* Indicates Gold Glove Seasons
( ) Numbers in parentheses indicate PBs charged to catchers.
Note that many of the catchers in the 1960's enjoyed some really horrendous defensive reputations, including Torre, Williams, Didier and Pocoroba. We have to wonder how much of that negative reputation was generated by having to catch the knuckler. In general, these infields were all average or above average, and many (especially Evans) either led or were close to the league lead in RF, which may have had a lot to do with fielding behind Niekro. It should be noted that Niekro himself won 5 gold gloves as a pitcher. In summary, the residuals look fairly innocuous, since Niekro maintained positive Differentials in every season except 1974.
Niekro debuted as a starter in 1967 leading the league in ERA and enjoyed three excellent seasons from 1967-1969. In the large scale, however, his arrival was lost in the glitter of performances from guys like Bob Gibson, Denny McLain, Tom Seaver and Juan Marichal, among others. He was selected to only one AS Team during those three seasons, and only four others in his career, which speaks both of the depth of quality pitching during his career, and probably also to the lack of respect for the knuckler in general.
In 1974 he won 20 games for a third-place Braves team. He overachieved PRA by a huge .025 that season, primarily because his normal residual rates were exceedingly low (fewer PBs, WPs and ROEs than in his career, decent defense and, probably, a fair amount of luck). He continued to perform well for some horrible Braves' teams through the rest of the 1970s, including a 21-20 season for a last place team in 1979. He won 17 games for the division winners in 1983, then had one more decent season with the Yankees in 1984 before fading out during his last three years.
I don't think its accurate to describe Niekro as a great pitcher, but he was a damned good one for a very long time. He is certainly the greatest knuckleball pitcher of all time, and his consistency with that pitch was incredible. Season to season, he was lost among flashier, more dominant peers, but he was much, much more than just an accumulator. The lack of wear and tear on his arm certainly extended his career, but he did an awful lot with that arm as long as it lasted. He's not a first ballot guy, but he was certainly worthy of his HOF selection.
QUOTE
Note that many of the catchers in the 1960's enjoyed some really horrendous defensive reputations, including Torre, Williams, Didier and Pocoroba. We have to wonder how much of that negative reputation was generated by having to catch the knuckler.
There's pretty good evidence Torre and Didier just sucked. Torre wasn't even entrusted to catch Niekro - Bob Uecker, who hit .146 in Niekro's league leading 1967, did.
QUOTE (Tudor Fever @ Jan 13 2006, 04:05 PM)
Jeff and Lose, would you please tell us why you are not voting for Grich?
I hold different standards for first ballot voting than I do for later rounds. If he's not in after this round, I'll be voting for him. He was never one of those "that's a future Hall of Famer you're watching" guys for me, although looking back on his career shows him in a different light.
QUOTE (BoSoxJeff @ Jan 13 2006, 04:40 PM)
Just to make a final case here for Sam McDowell:
- 15 year career, stuck on some pretty mediocre Cleveland teams...
- 3.17 career ERA with 7 sub 3.00 seasons (8 including his abbreviated rookie season)
- I know it was a pitchers ERA, but his adjusted ERA still .50 better than the leagues over his career.
- 6 200 K seasons, 2 300 K seasons
- 2 of the top 12 K to Hit ratio seasons all time
- 4th all time K/innings pitched behing Koufax, Ryan, RJ
- led AL in Ks 5 times
- 15 year career, stuck on some pretty mediocre Cleveland teams...
- 3.17 career ERA with 7 sub 3.00 seasons (8 including his abbreviated rookie season)
- I know it was a pitchers ERA, but his adjusted ERA still .50 better than the leagues over his career.
- 6 200 K seasons, 2 300 K seasons
- 2 of the top 12 K to Hit ratio seasons all time
- 4th all time K/innings pitched behing Koufax, Ryan, RJ
- led AL in Ks 5 times
Did you know that in 1965, only 58% of the batters McDowell faced actually put the ball in play? Only 16% of batters he faced reached base on hits, and only 3% of batters hit him for extra bases. That's fairly dominant. I'm not even sure Koufax did that. He only gave up 9 HRs that season.
And his record was 17-11
Grich
Niekro
Reggie
Catfish
Bando
Ron Cey
Ron Cey, you sey? Yeah, Ron Cey.
A little about Ron. He played 17 years and 2,063 games in the major leagues. He hit 312 home runs, and batted 261/354/445 in the major leagues, good for a 122 OPS+.
He became a regular in 1973, filling what had been an extreme problem for the Dodgers for a good 20 years. In 1953, Billy Cox had his last good season, and he was in his mid 30s. After that, the Dodgers tried Don Hoak, Jackie Robinson, Randy Jackson, Tommy Davis, Darryl Spencer, John Kennedy, Jim Lefebvre, Bob Bailey, Bill Sudakis, Billy Grabarkewitz and Steve Garvey (!) at third base, and no one was really much of a success. This can kill a team, and the reason the Dodgers were so successful is they had the best Plan B in 3rd base history in Jim Gilliam.
Well, with Ron Cey, this wasn't a problem for 10 years, and much of the Dodgers success in the 1970s is due to the stability of their infield in Cey, Russell, Lopes and Garvey.
Cey was short, stocky and with short legs, giving him the nickname the Penguin and a lack of speed, but good acceleration. He was not a great defensive 3B, but a good one - a guy who could play 3B well into his thirties.
Now, Ron's stats are on the surface unimpressive, but it must be remembered that Cey played in 1970s in Dodger Stadium, a big pitcher's park, and also Cey never had a really BIG year - his peak OPS+ in a full, non-strike year is 143 (good for 27 win shares). But find the bad Ron Cey season. Seriously. Find it. His only below average OPS+ year is 1985, when Cey was 37 years old, and it was a 93 OPS+, so it wasn't even that bad a year.
Ron Cey was a very good player - he averaged 22 win shares a year - and never had a bad season. His top three win shares are 27, 27, 26. His top five are 126 win shares, only a few behind Brooks Robinson and Ken Boyer, and ahead of Darrell Evans and Graig Nettles. Bill James ranks him 16th on his all-time list, above Bob elliott, who we elected.
Niekro
Reggie
Catfish
Bando
Ron Cey
Ron Cey, you sey? Yeah, Ron Cey.
A little about Ron. He played 17 years and 2,063 games in the major leagues. He hit 312 home runs, and batted 261/354/445 in the major leagues, good for a 122 OPS+.
He became a regular in 1973, filling what had been an extreme problem for the Dodgers for a good 20 years. In 1953, Billy Cox had his last good season, and he was in his mid 30s. After that, the Dodgers tried Don Hoak, Jackie Robinson, Randy Jackson, Tommy Davis, Darryl Spencer, John Kennedy, Jim Lefebvre, Bob Bailey, Bill Sudakis, Billy Grabarkewitz and Steve Garvey (!) at third base, and no one was really much of a success. This can kill a team, and the reason the Dodgers were so successful is they had the best Plan B in 3rd base history in Jim Gilliam.
Well, with Ron Cey, this wasn't a problem for 10 years, and much of the Dodgers success in the 1970s is due to the stability of their infield in Cey, Russell, Lopes and Garvey.
Cey was short, stocky and with short legs, giving him the nickname the Penguin and a lack of speed, but good acceleration. He was not a great defensive 3B, but a good one - a guy who could play 3B well into his thirties.
Now, Ron's stats are on the surface unimpressive, but it must be remembered that Cey played in 1970s in Dodger Stadium, a big pitcher's park, and also Cey never had a really BIG year - his peak OPS+ in a full, non-strike year is 143 (good for 27 win shares). But find the bad Ron Cey season. Seriously. Find it. His only below average OPS+ year is 1985, when Cey was 37 years old, and it was a 93 OPS+, so it wasn't even that bad a year.
Ron Cey was a very good player - he averaged 22 win shares a year - and never had a bad season. His top three win shares are 27, 27, 26. His top five are 126 win shares, only a few behind Brooks Robinson and Ken Boyer, and ahead of Darrell Evans and Graig Nettles. Bill James ranks him 16th on his all-time list, above Bob elliott, who we elected.
1992 BALLOT
Rollie Fingers
Bobby Grich
Jim "Catfish" Hunter
Reggie Jackson
Sam McDowell
Phil Niekro
Tony Oliva
Tony Perez
Vada Pinson
Reggie Smith
* Had to drop Norm Cash to make room for both Niekro and Jackson.
* I'll join the ground swell in the final push for Sam McDowell. He was Dominant with a capital D, and I'm pretty stunned he's been such an afterthought in this thread.
* Some mighty fine hitters in this year's group: Cooper, Easler, Matlock, McRae. Not to mention Lee Lacy who was underrated with the stick.
* I'm glad Bonger and URI both mentioned The Penguin, as I used to love watching Ron Cey hit 'n' waddle. But I see him as a bit of a stretch or the Hall. Ditto for Davey Lopes, who IMO is more deserving than Cey. I guess I'll have to wait for VAL to give us his classic blurbs on post-expansion 2B and 3B.
* Lopes is the only player in history to have 40 steals in a season past the age of 40. Not even Rickey did that.
* I recall watching Ruppert Jones in his 1977 rookie year and thinking "This guy's going to be the next Willie Mays." Errr... Not quite.
But that TWIB highlight of the foul ball he hit getting lodged in a speaker high above the first base dugout at the Kingdome was good for a chuckle.
* Len Barker is pretty much a trivia answer, and that's about it -- both for his perfect game and his wild pitch onto the screen at Fenway.
* It always seemed to me that Jorge Orta was one of those thorns in the side of Boston pitchers when he played 2B for the White Sox. Turns out he was a career 293/347/436/783 in 476 PA's against Boston. The only opponents against which he had a higher career OPS (min. 100 PAs) were the Mariners, Rangers and Blue Jays.
But check out his #'s vs Boston in his last 4 years with the Chisox:
1976 - 340 / 382 / 480 / 862
1977 - 350 / 409 / 575 / 984
1978 - 405 / 476 / 541 / 1017
1979 - 357 / 419 / 714 / 1133
Now I know why I always got a pit in my gut whenever I saw him stepping to the plate.
* Was there ever a more grating and annoying non-Yankee ballplayer during the 70s and 80s than pretty boy Steve Garvey?
* If there's been a major leaguer in my lifetime who's had to overcome more than Andre Thornton, I don't know who it would be. He lost his wife and three-year-old daughter in a 1977 car crash. He and son Andre Jr. survived.
* RIP, Darrell Porter & Aurelio Lopez...
Couldn't agree more. Which makes it all the more depressing that we lost the first 100 pages of that thread from the EZ-Board days. There are some very low-level criteria being thrown around in some of the arguments I'm seeing. VAL, Lahoud, Tudor, URI and a few others posted some highly thought-provoking analysis as we debated the election years leading up to the late 1960's -- most of it was park, league and era-adjusted, and looked well beyond the traditional metrics and career accumulation data that some voters seem to have stuck in their craw.
Rollie Fingers
Bobby Grich
Jim "Catfish" Hunter
Reggie Jackson
Sam McDowell
Phil Niekro
Tony Oliva
Tony Perez
Vada Pinson
Reggie Smith
* Had to drop Norm Cash to make room for both Niekro and Jackson.
* I'll join the ground swell in the final push for Sam McDowell. He was Dominant with a capital D, and I'm pretty stunned he's been such an afterthought in this thread.
* Some mighty fine hitters in this year's group: Cooper, Easler, Matlock, McRae. Not to mention Lee Lacy who was underrated with the stick.
* I'm glad Bonger and URI both mentioned The Penguin, as I used to love watching Ron Cey hit 'n' waddle. But I see him as a bit of a stretch or the Hall. Ditto for Davey Lopes, who IMO is more deserving than Cey. I guess I'll have to wait for VAL to give us his classic blurbs on post-expansion 2B and 3B.
* Lopes is the only player in history to have 40 steals in a season past the age of 40. Not even Rickey did that.
* I recall watching Ruppert Jones in his 1977 rookie year and thinking "This guy's going to be the next Willie Mays." Errr... Not quite.
But that TWIB highlight of the foul ball he hit getting lodged in a speaker high above the first base dugout at the Kingdome was good for a chuckle.
* Len Barker is pretty much a trivia answer, and that's about it -- both for his perfect game and his wild pitch onto the screen at Fenway.
* It always seemed to me that Jorge Orta was one of those thorns in the side of Boston pitchers when he played 2B for the White Sox. Turns out he was a career 293/347/436/783 in 476 PA's against Boston. The only opponents against which he had a higher career OPS (min. 100 PAs) were the Mariners, Rangers and Blue Jays.
But check out his #'s vs Boston in his last 4 years with the Chisox:
1976 - 340 / 382 / 480 / 862
1977 - 350 / 409 / 575 / 984
1978 - 405 / 476 / 541 / 1017
1979 - 357 / 419 / 714 / 1133
Now I know why I always got a pit in my gut whenever I saw him stepping to the plate.
* Was there ever a more grating and annoying non-Yankee ballplayer during the 70s and 80s than pretty boy Steve Garvey?
* If there's been a major leaguer in my lifetime who's had to overcome more than Andre Thornton, I don't know who it would be. He lost his wife and three-year-old daughter in a 1977 car crash. He and son Andre Jr. survived.
* RIP, Darrell Porter & Aurelio Lopez...
QUOTE
The 10 or so of us who "built" most of the SoSH Hall of Fame managed to establish, over a period of more than a year, a common understanding of what the "bar" was. We didn't always agree on who the right players were, and we have had some great debates about who was over and who was under, but we managed to establish a recognizable threshold, in my opinion.
Couldn't agree more. Which makes it all the more depressing that we lost the first 100 pages of that thread from the EZ-Board days. There are some very low-level criteria being thrown around in some of the arguments I'm seeing. VAL, Lahoud, Tudor, URI and a few others posted some highly thought-provoking analysis as we debated the election years leading up to the late 1960's -- most of it was park, league and era-adjusted, and looked well beyond the traditional metrics and career accumulation data that some voters seem to have stuck in their craw.
Regarding Grich, he's honestly borderline for me guys. Based on #'s alone, I don't vote him in. That said, some very good arguments above piqued my interest, and his staggering OPS #'s have gone a long way toward convincing me.
As I finally jumped aboard the Pinson bandwagon, I may well vote for him at some point if he doesnt get in before that, but right now, I'm a nay.
As I finally jumped aboard the Pinson bandwagon, I may well vote for him at some point if he doesnt get in before that, but right now, I'm a nay.
Here are the raw numbers for Second Basemen who played primarily between 1961-1979 with more than 5000 PAs:
They are sorted by ToH, which is the weighted value of their specific rates and correllates directly to team runs scored. It has a quasi-linear relationship to OPS, and can be modified for outs and multiplied by PA to yield a more accurate RC number than using James' convoluted formula.
As you can see, Grich is right there behind Morgan and Carew, and quite a bit ahead of the rest of the field. Looking more closely at the individual rates, we see that Grich's 1B, 2B and 3B rates are almost identical to Morgan's, and his HR Rate is a little higher. The only offensive difference between Morgan and Grich was Morgan's superior walk rate.
Of course, this only accounts for hitting, not baserunning or fielding, but as Lahoud and others have pointed out, Grich was no slouch in either category, although he was probably inferior to Morgan in both.
I haven't calculated absolute park values back far enough to correct their careers for park factor yet, but since Grich played primarily in pitcher-friendly Memorial Stadium and the older version of Anaheim Stadium, I think he may in fact correct much closer to Carew and Morgan offensively.
If those numbers aren't enough, I can post some more. A .400+ career ToH is certainly HOF country.
CODE
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS BB/PA 1B/PA 2B/PA 3B/PA HR/PA ToH
J. Morgan 11309 .271 .387 .427 .815 .165 .151 .040 .008 .024 .419
R. Carew 10630 .328 .383 .429 .812 .096 .226 .042 .011 .009 .409
B. Grich 8220 .266 .355 .424 .779 .132 .151 .039 .006 .027 .400
D. McAuliffe 7191 .247 .335 .403 .739 .123 .143 .032 .010 .027 .385
J. Orta 6437 .278 .329 .412 .741 .078 .180 .041 .010 .020 .383
D. Johnson 5479 .261 .331 .404 .735 .102 .156 .044 .003 .025 .380
D. Lopes 7160 .264 .342 .390 .732 .113 .169 .032 .007 .021 .378
D. Buford 5370 .264 .349 .379 .728 .125 .169 .029 .008 .017 .374
D. Cash 6054 .283 .330 .358 .688 .070 .207 .040 .009 .003 .351
J. Lumpe 5426 .268 .321 .356 .677 .079 .189 .035 .010 .009 .347
R. Hunt 6158 .273 .322 .347 .669 .090 .186 .036 .004 .006 .334
G. Beckert 5548 .283 .312 .345 .657 .047 .221 .035 .006 .004 .334
J. Javier 6186 .257 .288 .355 .643 .051 .181 .035 .009 .013 .330
F. Millan 6333 .279 .306 .343 .649 .050 .210 .036 .006 .003 .326
T. Fuentes 6053 .268 .296 .347 .642 .049 .196 .035 .008 .007 .326
T. Helms 5351 .269 .294 .342 .636 .043 .199 .042 .004 .006 .323
H. Clarke 5236 .256 .305 .313 .618 .070 .197 .029 .004 .005 .316
J. Morgan 11309 .271 .387 .427 .815 .165 .151 .040 .008 .024 .419
R. Carew 10630 .328 .383 .429 .812 .096 .226 .042 .011 .009 .409
B. Grich 8220 .266 .355 .424 .779 .132 .151 .039 .006 .027 .400
D. McAuliffe 7191 .247 .335 .403 .739 .123 .143 .032 .010 .027 .385
J. Orta 6437 .278 .329 .412 .741 .078 .180 .041 .010 .020 .383
D. Johnson 5479 .261 .331 .404 .735 .102 .156 .044 .003 .025 .380
D. Lopes 7160 .264 .342 .390 .732 .113 .169 .032 .007 .021 .378
D. Buford 5370 .264 .349 .379 .728 .125 .169 .029 .008 .017 .374
D. Cash 6054 .283 .330 .358 .688 .070 .207 .040 .009 .003 .351
J. Lumpe 5426 .268 .321 .356 .677 .079 .189 .035 .010 .009 .347
R. Hunt 6158 .273 .322 .347 .669 .090 .186 .036 .004 .006 .334
G. Beckert 5548 .283 .312 .345 .657 .047 .221 .035 .006 .004 .334
J. Javier 6186 .257 .288 .355 .643 .051 .181 .035 .009 .013 .330
F. Millan 6333 .279 .306 .343 .649 .050 .210 .036 .006 .003 .326
T. Fuentes 6053 .268 .296 .347 .642 .049 .196 .035 .008 .007 .326
T. Helms 5351 .269 .294 .342 .636 .043 .199 .042 .004 .006 .323
H. Clarke 5236 .256 .305 .313 .618 .070 .197 .029 .004 .005 .316
They are sorted by ToH, which is the weighted value of their specific rates and correllates directly to team runs scored. It has a quasi-linear relationship to OPS, and can be modified for outs and multiplied by PA to yield a more accurate RC number than using James' convoluted formula.
As you can see, Grich is right there behind Morgan and Carew, and quite a bit ahead of the rest of the field. Looking more closely at the individual rates, we see that Grich's 1B, 2B and 3B rates are almost identical to Morgan's, and his HR Rate is a little higher. The only offensive difference between Morgan and Grich was Morgan's superior walk rate.
Of course, this only accounts for hitting, not baserunning or fielding, but as Lahoud and others have pointed out, Grich was no slouch in either category, although he was probably inferior to Morgan in both.
I haven't calculated absolute park values back far enough to correct their careers for park factor yet, but since Grich played primarily in pitcher-friendly Memorial Stadium and the older version of Anaheim Stadium, I think he may in fact correct much closer to Carew and Morgan offensively.
If those numbers aren't enough, I can post some more. A .400+ career ToH is certainly HOF country.
That's a nice post, VAL. The only area where I think you miss the mark is where you opine that Morgan was probably a better fielder than Grich. According to BP, Grich had 129 career FRAA and Morgan only 17. Bill James has Grich at 5.68 WS per 1000 defensive innings, and Morgan at 4.22.
For you Sudden Sam advocates, the reason I am not voting for him is that his career ERA+ was only 112, and he led the league in BB allowed 5 times. Bascially, he had half of Nolan Ryan's career. Both were spectacular pitchers but neither was really that effective.
For you Sudden Sam advocates, the reason I am not voting for him is that his career ERA+ was only 112, and he led the league in BB allowed 5 times. Bascially, he had half of Nolan Ryan's career. Both were spectacular pitchers but neither was really that effective.
I'm not really inclined to trust either number. BP's defensive metrics are famously inaccurate, and DefWS are also not accurate. I think they may underrate Morgan. That being said, Grich was no slouch and being no better a fielder than Joe Morgan is not an insult even to those with the thinnest of skin.
QUOTE (Spacemans Bong @ Jan 15 2006, 06:04 AM)
I'm not really inclined to trust either number. BP's defensive metrics are famously inaccurate, and DefWS are also not accurate. I think they may underrate Morgan. That being said, Grich was no slouch and being no better a fielder than Joe Morgan is not an insult even to those with the thinnest of skin.
Both metrics are clearly far from perfect, but they do have some merit and here they strongly agree with each other.Morgan did win 5 gold gloves to Grich's 4. Grich's came from 1973 through 1976. He was injured most of 1977 as the result of a freak air-conditioner lifting accident (sounds like a Spinal Tap drummer incident) and by the time he came back Frank White owned the award.
QUOTE (Tudor Fever @ Jan 15 2006, 10:29 AM)
Both metrics are clearly far from perfect, but they do have some merit and here they strongly agree with each other.
Morgan did win 5 gold gloves to Grich's 4. Grich's came from 1973 through 1976. He was injured most of 1977 as the result of a freak air-conditioner lifting accident (sounds like a Spinal Tap drummer incident) and by the time he came back Frank White owned the award.
Morgan did win 5 gold gloves to Grich's 4. Grich's came from 1973 through 1976. He was injured most of 1977 as the result of a freak air-conditioner lifting accident (sounds like a Spinal Tap drummer incident) and by the time he came back Frank White owned the award.
I guess the point is that they were both good. So if that's the case, the only difference between Morgan - often regarded as the best 2B of all time, and his contemporary Grich were walks, steals and longevity (oh yeah, playing on the Big Red Machine didn't hurt, either, lol).
I'm not trying to disparage Morgan, but Grich was pretty damned good too.
OK, I'm sold on Grich. Who's next?
1993 Ballot:
Dave Bancroft
Bobby Grich
Catfish Hunter
Reggie Jackson
Sam McDowell
Thurman Munson
Phil Niekro
Tony Oliva
Vada Pinson
Darrell Porter
I'm really on the edge with McDowell. He's in my personal HOF, but I'm still not sure on him. I pulled numbers on him and will analyze it in a day or so.
I added Munson and Porter mainly because I love catchers, but both had solid career numbers. We can resurrect the catcher discussion for 1994 when Simmons comes before us.
I dropped Singleton, Cedeno and Smith from this ballot because I think we need to focus on Oliva and Pinson first, since they were arguably better.
Speaking of walks, I have a philosophical/analytical question to throw out here.
We can see in the above numbers how important walks are to composite stats like OPS, ToH, and RC. Often, the statistical advantage of one player over another does come down to higher walk rates. We know that walks are important in run scoring, but are they overrated as a player trait?
We've had this discussion before in here, but I'd like to revive it if we could. How much of walking is a skill, and how much is residual karma? Is there a point in statistical analysis that we should set a ceiling and say, for instance, that a walk rate above a certain number is overkill, that a hitter should have done more with his plate appearances than walked 18% of the time? Or should we establish a norm for expected walks in a season and treat all players who fall within that normal range the same, and only penalize or credit players under/below that window?
It goes for pitchers too ... looking at Sam McDowell, can we say that his huge walk rate was bad? How bad were the walks really, if less than half the batters he faced during his dominant years actually made contact and less than 2% hit for extra bases?
I think because of modern statistical analysis walks have taken on an importance that they didn't always have in the game. Sometimes I think we go too far in our revisionist thinking.
Thoughts???
We can see in the above numbers how important walks are to composite stats like OPS, ToH, and RC. Often, the statistical advantage of one player over another does come down to higher walk rates. We know that walks are important in run scoring, but are they overrated as a player trait?
We've had this discussion before in here, but I'd like to revive it if we could. How much of walking is a skill, and how much is residual karma? Is there a point in statistical analysis that we should set a ceiling and say, for instance, that a walk rate above a certain number is overkill, that a hitter should have done more with his plate appearances than walked 18% of the time? Or should we establish a norm for expected walks in a season and treat all players who fall within that normal range the same, and only penalize or credit players under/below that window?
It goes for pitchers too ... looking at Sam McDowell, can we say that his huge walk rate was bad? How bad were the walks really, if less than half the batters he faced during his dominant years actually made contact and less than 2% hit for extra bases?
I think because of modern statistical analysis walks have taken on an importance that they didn't always have in the game. Sometimes I think we go too far in our revisionist thinking.
Thoughts???
I met Joe Morgan today. Bad-ass.
Sal Bando
Ron Cey
Bobby Grich
Jim Hunter
Phil Niekro
Tony Oliva
Amos Otis
Reggie Jackson
Pete Rose
Reggie Smith
Ron Cey
Bobby Grich
Jim Hunter
Phil Niekro
Tony Oliva
Amos Otis
Reggie Jackson
Pete Rose
Reggie Smith
Thanks for the reminder, Lahoud.
1993 ballot :
Sal Bando
Norm Cash
Bobby Grich
Reggie Jackson
Thurman Munson
Phil Niekro
Tony Oliva
Vada Pinson
Pete Rose
Reggie Smith
Have to delete Otis and Kaat for now to stay at 10.
1993 ballot :
Sal Bando
Norm Cash
Bobby Grich
Reggie Jackson
Thurman Munson
Phil Niekro
Tony Oliva
Vada Pinson
Pete Rose
Reggie Smith
Have to delete Otis and Kaat for now to stay at 10.
QUOTE (Vermonter At Large @ Jan 15 2006, 11:16 AM)
I dropped Singleton, Cedeno and Smith from this ballot because I think we need to focus on Oliva and Pinson first, since they were arguably better.
I agree that it is hard to draw distinctions between these five. I have not been voting for Oliva or Pinson, and I recognize I am in the minority, but I just can't make a case for them that wouldn't also be making a case for a 300-player hall.
Paring down my unwieldy outfielder comparison, here's how these five stack up on the charts I prepared before. (I'll include a couple of other contemporary outfielders for comparison purposes: Frank Howard, Billy Williams, Lou Brock, Willie Stargell, Jimmy Wynn, Reggie Smith, Amos Otis, Reggie Jackson, Bobby Bonds, Ken Singleton, Cesar Cedeno). I'm not listing the list of terms again, but I will if needed.
CODE
CHART #1 – CAREER OVERVIEW
Name Years G-OF PA OPS+ RC/27 WS WS/PA BFW WARP1 WARP3 W1/PA W3/PA FR/RG/THR/JM
Howard** 58-73 1435 7353 142 6.2 297 26.2 22.6 80.4 73.9 5.47 5.03 -49/ 89/ 86/D+
Pinson^ 58-75 2403 10403 111 5.2 321 20.0 2.7 85.2 79.6 4.09 3.83 -4/ 99/109/A-
BWilliams 59-76 2088 10519 132 6.5 374 23.0 23.8 119.4 115.9 5.68 5.51 -21/ 94/101/C
Oliva^ 62-76 1178 6879 131 6.1 245 23.1 20.3 69.1 64.1 5.02 4.66 34/110/ 94/B-
Brock 62-79 2507 11235 109 5.0 348 20.1 2.3 88.1 82.5 3.92 3.67 -49/ 96/ 84/C-
Stargell 62-82 1296 9026 147 6.9 370 26.6 30.8 107.7 101.4 5.97 5.62 -72/ 89/124/C-
J.Wynn** 63-77 1810 8010 128 5.4 305 24.7 30.0 93.5 88.6 5.84 5.53 36/102/121/B-
R.Smith^ 66-82 1668 8050 137 6.4 325 26.2 31.9 94.4 86.6 5.86 5.38 31/105/110/A-
Otis^ 67-84 1928 8246 114 5.1 286 22.5 12.0 83.9 82.6 5.09 5.01 -31/ 98/ 97/A+
R.Jackson 67-87 2102 11416 139 6.1 444 25.2 39.5 117.6 118.7 5.15 5.20 -34/ 99/ 92/C-
Bo.Bonds** 68-81 1736 8090 130 5.7 302 24.2 27.2 91.6 88.2 5.66 5.45 29/105/100/B-
Singleton^ 70-84 1538 8558 132 6.0 302 22.9 20.4 84.7 86.7 4.95 5.07 -71/ 91/ 71/C
Cedeno^ 70-86 1718 8133 123 5.4 296 23.6 22.3 92.8 86.5 5.71 5.32 -21/101/ 94/A-
(* = in real Hall but not our Hall; ** = in our hall but not real Hall; ^ = in neither).
Name Years G-OF PA OPS+ RC/27 WS WS/PA BFW WARP1 WARP3 W1/PA W3/PA FR/RG/THR/JM
Howard** 58-73 1435 7353 142 6.2 297 26.2 22.6 80.4 73.9 5.47 5.03 -49/ 89/ 86/D+
Pinson^ 58-75 2403 10403 111 5.2 321 20.0 2.7 85.2 79.6 4.09 3.83 -4/ 99/109/A-
BWilliams 59-76 2088 10519 132 6.5 374 23.0 23.8 119.4 115.9 5.68 5.51 -21/ 94/101/C
Oliva^ 62-76 1178 6879 131 6.1 245 23.1 20.3 69.1 64.1 5.02 4.66 34/110/ 94/B-
Brock 62-79 2507 11235 109 5.0 348 20.1 2.3 88.1 82.5 3.92 3.67 -49/ 96/ 84/C-
Stargell 62-82 1296 9026 147 6.9 370 26.6 30.8 107.7 101.4 5.97 5.62 -72/ 89/124/C-
J.Wynn** 63-77 1810 8010 128 5.4 305 24.7 30.0 93.5 88.6 5.84 5.53 36/102/121/B-
R.Smith^ 66-82 1668 8050 137 6.4 325 26.2 31.9 94.4 86.6 5.86 5.38 31/105/110/A-
Otis^ 67-84 1928 8246 114 5.1 286 22.5 12.0 83.9 82.6 5.09 5.01 -31/ 98/ 97/A+
R.Jackson 67-87 2102 11416 139 6.1 444 25.2 39.5 117.6 118.7 5.15 5.20 -34/ 99/ 92/C-
Bo.Bonds** 68-81 1736 8090 130 5.7 302 24.2 27.2 91.6 88.2 5.66 5.45 29/105/100/B-
Singleton^ 70-84 1538 8558 132 6.0 302 22.9 20.4 84.7 86.7 4.95 5.07 -71/ 91/ 71/C
Cedeno^ 70-86 1718 8133 123 5.4 296 23.6 22.3 92.8 86.5 5.71 5.32 -21/101/ 94/A-
(* = in real Hall but not our Hall; ** = in our hall but not real Hall; ^ = in neither).
CODE
CHART #2: YEAR-BY-YEAR
WARP1 batting awards WS WS WARP 3
Name 7/10 Top 10s M/AS/GG/W 20/25/30 TOP 7 seasons best 3/5/8
Howard 6/ 0 4/ 3/ 7/ 7/ 6 4/4/0/0 9/6/3 38/34/30/28/25/25/23 8.3/ 7.7/ 7.0
Pinson 4/ 0 4/ 1/ 3/ 2/ 5 2/2/1/2 9/4/2 32/31/27/26/24/24/22 8.2/ 7.7/ 6.7
BWilliams 12/ 3 4/ 4/ 8/ 6/10 3/6/0/0 11/8/3 33/32/30/29/28/28/28 10.1/ 9.8/ 9.1
Oliva 6/ 0 8/ 3/ 7/ 6/ 8 5/8/1/1 8/6/2 33/30/28/27/25/25/23 7.9/ 7.5/ 7.0
Brock 2/ 0 5/ 1/ 0/ 0/ 4 5/6/0/0 11/5/3 31/30/30/26/26/23/22 7.0/ 6.7/ 6.3
Stargell 6/ 2 2/ 4/10/ 7/ 6 7/7/0/0 10/6/2 36/35/29/27/26/25/22 9.4/ 8.9/ 8.1
J.Wynn 7/ 4 0/ 7/ 4/ 6/ 5 1/3/0/1 8/7/4 36/32/32/31/28/28/27 10.2/ 9.7/ 8.8
R.Smith 4/ 0 4/ 5/ 8/ 5/ 8 3/7/1/3 10/6/0 29/29/26/25/25/25/24 7.9/ 7.4/ 6.9
Otis 4/ 0 4/ 1/ 2/ 1/ 3 4/5/3/5 8/5/0 29/29/27/26/25/25/22 8.5/ 7.9/ 7.2
R.Jackson 10/ 1 0/ 5/12/11/ 8 7/14/0/0 13/10/5 41/32/32/31/30/27/27 9.3/ 8.8/ 8.3
Bo.Bonds 8/ 2 0/ 0/ 3/ 3/ 5 2/3/3/2 10/4/4 32/32/31/31/24/24/23 9.3/ 8.9/ 8.3
Singleton 5/ 1 2/ 9/ 1/ 6/ 5 4/3/0/0 7/6/3 36/33/32/28/28/27/24 9.8/ 9.2/ 8.2
Cedeno 6/ 1 3/ 2/ 2/ 4/ 3 1/4/5/2 7/5/3 33/30/30/27/26/23/20 9.5/ 9.0/ 7.9
WARP1 batting awards WS WS WARP 3
Name 7/10 Top 10s M/AS/GG/W 20/25/30 TOP 7 seasons best 3/5/8
Howard 6/ 0 4/ 3/ 7/ 7/ 6 4/4/0/0 9/6/3 38/34/30/28/25/25/23 8.3/ 7.7/ 7.0
Pinson 4/ 0 4/ 1/ 3/ 2/ 5 2/2/1/2 9/4/2 32/31/27/26/24/24/22 8.2/ 7.7/ 6.7
BWilliams 12/ 3 4/ 4/ 8/ 6/10 3/6/0/0 11/8/3 33/32/30/29/28/28/28 10.1/ 9.8/ 9.1
Oliva 6/ 0 8/ 3/ 7/ 6/ 8 5/8/1/1 8/6/2 33/30/28/27/25/25/23 7.9/ 7.5/ 7.0
Brock 2/ 0 5/ 1/ 0/ 0/ 4 5/6/0/0 11/5/3 31/30/30/26/26/23/22 7.0/ 6.7/ 6.3
Stargell 6/ 2 2/ 4/10/ 7/ 6 7/7/0/0 10/6/2 36/35/29/27/26/25/22 9.4/ 8.9/ 8.1
J.Wynn 7/ 4 0/ 7/ 4/ 6/ 5 1/3/0/1 8/7/4 36/32/32/31/28/28/27 10.2/ 9.7/ 8.8
R.Smith 4/ 0 4/ 5/ 8/ 5/ 8 3/7/1/3 10/6/0 29/29/26/25/25/25/24 7.9/ 7.4/ 6.9
Otis 4/ 0 4/ 1/ 2/ 1/ 3 4/5/3/5 8/5/0 29/29/27/26/25/25/22 8.5/ 7.9/ 7.2
R.Jackson 10/ 1 0/ 5/12/11/ 8 7/14/0/0 13/10/5 41/32/32/31/30/27/27 9.3/ 8.8/ 8.3
Bo.Bonds 8/ 2 0/ 0/ 3/ 3/ 5 2/3/3/2 10/4/4 32/32/31/31/24/24/23 9.3/ 8.9/ 8.3
Singleton 5/ 1 2/ 9/ 1/ 6/ 5 4/3/0/0 7/6/3 36/33/32/28/28/27/24 9.8/ 9.2/ 8.2
Cedeno 6/ 1 3/ 2/ 2/ 4/ 3 1/4/5/2 7/5/3 33/30/30/27/26/23/20 9.5/ 9.0/ 7.9
Looking at this board, nothing jumps out at me about Pinson. As a hitter, he wasn’t staggering; only Brock on that list had a worse OPS+, and only Brock and Otis had a worse RC/27. Pinson had a ton of plate appearances, but only 321 win shares, placing him last on this list for WS/PA. His batter/fielder wins (under the linear weights system) is ahead of only Brock. The same is true for his WARP1/PA and WARP3/PA. So, his “average” season wasn’t spectacular. So, was he dominant? Not really. He never had a season with a 10 WARP3, he never had more than 32 win shares, he had only four seasons of at least 25 win shares. He was a two-time all-star. If you average his best three seasons in terms of WARP3, he comes in fourth-to-last (ahead of Oliva, Smith and Brock). Would he be the worst outfielder in our Hall? Probably not. But nothing has ever jumped out at me about him. He never had a run of dominance, and his career totals are very good but not great.
Oliva’s a somewhat trickier case because of injuries, and because the metrics I’ve looked at are conflicting, but I have found him lacking as well. He had a six-year sustained run in which he was really good – certainly in the category of an Al Kaline or so during this period – but his career was cut short. He has the fewest PAs in this above list and the fewest win shares, and I don’t see him as the type of truly dominant player that can overcome that short a career, injuries or not. On the other hand, there’s a lot to be said for him – eight all-star appearances, six seasons with 25 win shares, tons of “top 10" finishes in offensive categories, strong OPS+ and RC/27 numbers. But, with short-career guys, I’ve been looking for signs of real dominance, and I’m not seeing it. He did have two seasons of 30+ win shares, but his WARP1 and WARP3 season-by-season totals are not out-of-this-world. He’s better than Pinson, but I still think he falls short.
I’m more than willing to be talked out of my view on either of these guys, especially Oliva, but I find it hard right now to vote for them without voting for almost everyone on this list and a bunch of others too.
QUOTE (mabrowndog @ Jan 14 2006, 02:38 PM)
Which makes it all the more depressing that we lost the first 100 pages of that thread from the EZ-Board days.
Not lost, just went walkabout for a while...Old Gold: 1936-72
The Middle Ages: 1973-78
Not to sound immodest, but there's some good shit in there.
Rollie Fingers
Steve Garvey (see below)
Bobby Grich
Catfish Hunter
Reggie Jackson
Tony Oliva
While I'm not exactly convinced that Steve Garvey belongs in the Hall of Fame, I really think the guy should get at least one vote. I don't have the time right now to present a case, but with an NL MVP (and a 2nd place finish), two NLCS MVPs (along with excellent overall postseason stats), multiple Gold Gloves, and 10 All Star Game appearances, he definitely deserves consideration.
Edit: alphabetizing is not my strong suit.
Steve Garvey (see below)
Bobby Grich
Catfish Hunter
Reggie Jackson
Tony Oliva
While I'm not exactly convinced that Steve Garvey belongs in the Hall of Fame, I really think the guy should get at least one vote. I don't have the time right now to present a case, but with an NL MVP (and a 2nd place finish), two NLCS MVPs (along with excellent overall postseason stats), multiple Gold Gloves, and 10 All Star Game appearances, he definitely deserves consideration.
Edit: alphabetizing is not my strong suit.
1993 ballot:
Amos Otis
Catfish Hunter
Norm Cash
Reggie Jackson
Rollie Fingers
Sam McDowell
Amos Otis
Catfish Hunter
Norm Cash
Reggie Jackson
Rollie Fingers
Sam McDowell
QUOTE (Rice4HOF @ Jan 17 2006, 11:51 PM)
1993 ballot:
Amos Otis
Catfish Hunter
Norm Cash
Reggie Jackson
Rollie Fingers
Sam McDowell
Amos Otis
Catfish Hunter
Norm Cash
Reggie Jackson
Rollie Fingers
Sam McDowell
I don't know why, but I'm finding it funny that a guy named "Rice4HOF" wouldn't vote for Grich, who -- although never "The Most Feared Player Of His Generation" -- was a far better player than Rice no matter how you slice it. I guess I should find it just as funny that you're voting for Otis but not Grich.
Here's another way to look at the OF thing:
Q: Who are Players X, Y and Z?
A: Player X is Vada Pinson in the 10 seasons before he broke his leg in 1968.
Player Y is Tony Oliva in the 10 seasons before he blew his knees out for good in 1972. Player Z is Cesar Cedeno in the 9 seasons before he blew his knee out in 1978.
All three of these guys pulled their stats down playing for several seasons after they suffered catastrophic injuries that took away their talents, but for a decade each was at or near their profession.
Oliva should be a no-brainer. Had his career ended at the 10-year mark, his .313 BA and .856 OPS would probably have put him in the HOF. He stuck around as a shadow of his former self for five more years, and I think this hurt him.
Pinson was the best outfielder not named Mays, Aaron or Robinson in the N.L. in the 1960's. He was a much better hitter than Clemente during the first halves of their careers (Clemente's greatest seasons were in the second half of his career), but he stuck around for seven mediocre (at best) seasons after breaking his leg. By the time he retired, nobody remembered the player he once was (he was also the fastest player in the game and probably the best fielding CF in baseball before his injury).
Cedeno had his career split in two, with nine seasons as a great CF, and another 9 in mediocrity. In addition to his batting differential, Cedeno put together seven straight 50+ steal seasons before his injury, and had 397 total SBs in the first half of his career, but only 39 during the second half.
I know we can't select every sad case of unfulfilled potential, but each of these guys had a decade of excellence which should meet HOF criteria. Pinson and Cedeno are still probably borderline, but Oliva was probably better than half of the outfielders in the HOF.
And one aside ... isn't it time Reggie Smith started getting some serious consideration here? Seriously, take a look at Delta's numbers, take a look at mine, look elsewhere and think about how a guy with numbers like that has had so little consideration in any forum?
CODE
OPS BB/PA 1B/PA 2B/PA 3B/PA HR/PA ToH
W. Stargell .874 .102 .139 .046 .006 .052 .453
Player Y .856 .064 .187 .054 .009 .034 .442
F. Howard .842 .105 .149 033 .005 .051 .440
R. Smith .849 .110 .159 .045 .007 .039 .440
B. Williams .845 .098 .166 .041 .008 .040 .439
R. Jackson .834 .119 .131 .040 .004 .049 .435
B. Bonds .816 .113 .146 .037 .008 .041 .426
R. Clemente .826 .060 .209 .043 .016 .023 .425
Player X .814 .060 .184 .050 .014 .029 .423
T. Oliva .817 .064 .190 .047 .007 .032 .421
K. Singleton .818 .146 .167 .037 .003 .029 .420
Player Z .805 .077 .172 .054 .009 .029 .417
J. Wynn .796 .153 .131 .036 .005 .036 .414
C. Cedeno .781 .082 .171 .054 .007 .024 .403
V. Pinson .763 .055 .182 .047 .012 .025 .396
A. Otis .764 .092 .169 .046 .008 .024 .395
L. Brock .745 .067 .199 .043 .012 .013 .381
W. Stargell .874 .102 .139 .046 .006 .052 .453
Player Y .856 .064 .187 .054 .009 .034 .442
F. Howard .842 .105 .149 033 .005 .051 .440
R. Smith .849 .110 .159 .045 .007 .039 .440
B. Williams .845 .098 .166 .041 .008 .040 .439
R. Jackson .834 .119 .131 .040 .004 .049 .435
B. Bonds .816 .113 .146 .037 .008 .041 .426
R. Clemente .826 .060 .209 .043 .016 .023 .425
Player X .814 .060 .184 .050 .014 .029 .423
T. Oliva .817 .064 .190 .047 .007 .032 .421
K. Singleton .818 .146 .167 .037 .003 .029 .420
Player Z .805 .077 .172 .054 .009 .029 .417
J. Wynn .796 .153 .131 .036 .005 .036 .414
C. Cedeno .781 .082 .171 .054 .007 .024 .403
V. Pinson .763 .055 .182 .047 .012 .025 .396
A. Otis .764 .092 .169 .046 .008 .024 .395
L. Brock .745 .067 .199 .043 .012 .013 .381
Q: Who are Players X, Y and Z?
A: Player X is Vada Pinson in the 10 seasons before he broke his leg in 1968.
Player Y is Tony Oliva in the 10 seasons before he blew his knees out for good in 1972. Player Z is Cesar Cedeno in the 9 seasons before he blew his knee out in 1978.
All three of these guys pulled their stats down playing for several seasons after they suffered catastrophic injuries that took away their talents, but for a decade each was at or near their profession.
Oliva should be a no-brainer. Had his career ended at the 10-year mark, his .313 BA and .856 OPS would probably have put him in the HOF. He stuck around as a shadow of his former self for five more years, and I think this hurt him.
Pinson was the best outfielder not named Mays, Aaron or Robinson in the N.L. in the 1960's. He was a much better hitter than Clemente during the first halves of their careers (Clemente's greatest seasons were in the second half of his career), but he stuck around for seven mediocre (at best) seasons after breaking his leg. By the time he retired, nobody remembered the player he once was (he was also the fastest player in the game and probably the best fielding CF in baseball before his injury).
Cedeno had his career split in two, with nine seasons as a great CF, and another 9 in mediocrity. In addition to his batting differential, Cedeno put together seven straight 50+ steal seasons before his injury, and had 397 total SBs in the first half of his career, but only 39 during the second half.
I know we can't select every sad case of unfulfilled potential, but each of these guys had a decade of excellence which should meet HOF criteria. Pinson and Cedeno are still probably borderline, but Oliva was probably better than half of the outfielders in the HOF.
And one aside ... isn't it time Reggie Smith started getting some serious consideration here? Seriously, take a look at Delta's numbers, take a look at mine, look elsewhere and think about how a guy with numbers like that has had so little consideration in any forum?
1993 Ballot
Dave Bancroft
Sal Bando
Ron Cey
Bobby Grich
Reggie Jackson
Thurman Munson
Phil Niekro
Tony Oliva
Dave Bancroft
Sal Bando
Ron Cey
Bobby Grich
Reggie Jackson
Thurman Munson
Phil Niekro
Tony Oliva
1993 Ballot
Rollie Fingers
Catfish Hunter
Reggie Jackson
Sam McDowell
Phil Niekro
Pete Rose
I have absolutely no problem with the term "cheesehead." Residents of Illinois coined this term because they had no constructive criticism of the residents of Wisconsin. I'll wear it with pride. Troll would indicate that I post here with the intention of causing commotion or generating ill will, which is certainly not the case. If my obvious "homer" votes bother you that much, I will refrain. It's not my intention to hack somebody off on an internet chat board. However, you may be taking this discussion a little too seriously.
If you don't think I'm casting an informed ballot because I don't have half a page explaining my thoughts, you are mistaken. From the time I started posting in this thread (somewhere in the first couple of rounds) I've maintained a relatively short list of players. Like Baka, I think that the Hall is fairly exclusive. For example, I also think that Grich is a borderline candidate, and that his numbers aren't convincing. However, I didn't think it was constructive to state that which has already been stated. It sounds like piling on.
You maintain that the induction of Fingers and Sutter were "mistaken" but offer no arguments to support this. Fingers played for 17 seasons, compiling 342 saves. As the game of baseball recognized the value of a "closer," Fingers was the first to be dominant in this role. He was in the top ten in saves for 14 of his 17 years, and was first in this category 3 times. He has a career ERA of 2.90. He was a seven time All Star, was the 1971 ML WS MVP, won both the AL MVP and CY in 1981, and was a Rolaids Relief pitcher in 1977, 1978, 1980 and 1981.
I'll continue to vote for Fingers, not because he played in Milwaukee (his best years were before that), but because he was among the best of his time. I'd also vote for Sutter and Gossage, and for combination pitchers like Smoltz and Eckersley.
Rollie Fingers
Catfish Hunter
Reggie Jackson
Sam McDowell
Phil Niekro
Pete Rose
QUOTE
I am editing my response because calling you a "cheesehead troll" was an immature overreaction, and I apologize for it.
I have absolutely no problem with the term "cheesehead." Residents of Illinois coined this term because they had no constructive criticism of the residents of Wisconsin. I'll wear it with pride. Troll would indicate that I post here with the intention of causing commotion or generating ill will, which is certainly not the case. If my obvious "homer" votes bother you that much, I will refrain. It's not my intention to hack somebody off on an internet chat board. However, you may be taking this discussion a little too seriously.
If you don't think I'm casting an informed ballot because I don't have half a page explaining my thoughts, you are mistaken. From the time I started posting in this thread (somewhere in the first couple of rounds) I've maintained a relatively short list of players. Like Baka, I think that the Hall is fairly exclusive. For example, I also think that Grich is a borderline candidate, and that his numbers aren't convincing. However, I didn't think it was constructive to state that which has already been stated. It sounds like piling on.
You maintain that the induction of Fingers and Sutter were "mistaken" but offer no arguments to support this. Fingers played for 17 seasons, compiling 342 saves. As the game of baseball recognized the value of a "closer," Fingers was the first to be dominant in this role. He was in the top ten in saves for 14 of his 17 years, and was first in this category 3 times. He has a career ERA of 2.90. He was a seven time All Star, was the 1971 ML WS MVP, won both the AL MVP and CY in 1981, and was a Rolaids Relief pitcher in 1977, 1978, 1980 and 1981.
I'll continue to vote for Fingers, not because he played in Milwaukee (his best years were before that), but because he was among the best of his time. I'd also vote for Sutter and Gossage, and for combination pitchers like Smoltz and Eckersley.
QUOTE (Majordad1 @ Jan 18 2006, 02:14 PM)
If you don't think I'm casting an informed ballot because I don't have half a page explaining my thoughts, you are mistaken. From the time I started posting in this thread (somewhere in the first couple of rounds) I've maintained a relatively short list of players. Like Baka, I think that the Hall is fairly exclusive. For example, I also think that Grich is a borderline candidate, and that his numbers aren't convincing. However, I didn't think it was constructive to state that which has already been stated. It sounds like piling on.
I think what irks some us sometimes MD, is that what makes this thread good is not the voting, but the discussion. If all we wanted to do was vote, we could just set up 130 polls - one for each thread, and disallow discussion.
There have been several posts during the past couple of weeks on Grich, both positive and negative - some very good stuff. Thats great - its what we want. If you just post a ballot (and we all do that from time to time, since all of us have other things going on), or if you say "his numbers aren't convincing," well, we want to know why. Hell, I don't even know if you even read the posts that some of us put up. If you think we're full of shit, by all means tell us. If you don't understand some of the more cosmic stats people put up (I certainly don't understand them all), or think they are unclear, feel free to ask for clarification.
QUOTE (Majordad1 @ Jan 18 2006, 01:14 PM)
However, you may be taking this discussion a little too seriously..
On this much, I completely agree with you. 
QUOTE (Majordad1 @ Jan 18 2006, 01:14 PM)
I also think that Grich is a borderline candidate, and that his numbers aren't convincing.
You maintain that the induction of Fingers and Sutter were "mistaken" but offer no arguments to support this. Fingers played for 17 seasons, compiling 342 saves. As the game of baseball recognized the value of a "closer," Fingers was the first to be dominant in this role. He was in the top ten in saves for 14 of his 17 years, and was first in this category 3 times. He has a career ERA of 2.90. He was a seven time All Star, was the 1971 ML WS MVP, won both the AL MVP and CY in 1981, and was a Rolaids Relief pitcher in 1977, 1978, 1980 and 1981.
I'll continue to vote for Fingers, not because he played in Milwaukee (his best years were before that), but because he was among the best of his time. I'd also vote for Sutter and Gossage, and for combination pitchers like Smoltz and Eckersley.
As VAL asked, why don’t Grich’s numbers convince you?You maintain that the induction of Fingers and Sutter were "mistaken" but offer no arguments to support this. Fingers played for 17 seasons, compiling 342 saves. As the game of baseball recognized the value of a "closer," Fingers was the first to be dominant in this role. He was in the top ten in saves for 14 of his 17 years, and was first in this category 3 times. He has a career ERA of 2.90. He was a seven time All Star, was the 1971 ML WS MVP, won both the AL MVP and CY in 1981, and was a Rolaids Relief pitcher in 1977, 1978, 1980 and 1981.
I'll continue to vote for Fingers, not because he played in Milwaukee (his best years were before that), but because he was among the best of his time. I'd also vote for Sutter and Gossage, and for combination pitchers like Smoltz and Eckersley.
OK, here’s my argument that Fingers’ induction was a mistake. First of all, racking up a lot of saves is at least as much a function of usage patterns as talent. (You say “As the baseball recognized the value of a “closer”…”; I could at least equally validly say “As the game of baseball started to succumb to the mass delusion that one person should close out all games, regardless of who is best suited on that particular occasion…”) And Fingers was far from historically dominant. His career ERA of 2.90 was barely above pedestrian for his era and home parks, as discussed below. And his AL MVP in 1981 was a complete joke; with 17 win shares, he was fourth best on his own team behind Cooper (22), Thomas (20), and Yount (20). The award should have gone to Rickey Henderson (27) or Dwight Evans (26).
Here are the career ERA+ figures of other famous closers:
Henke 156
Quisenberry 146
Wilhelm 146
Franco 137
Sutter 136
Montgomery 134
Hiller 134
Lee Smith 132
Tekulve 132
Doug Jones 130
Timlin 129
Lyle 127
Gossage 126
Mike Jackson 126
Perranoski 123
Reardon 121
Clay Carroll 120
McMahon 119
Fingers 119
Garber 117
Fingers was a good, not great, pitcher, who happened to play for a great team and to sport facial hair that some found charismatic. He was by no stretch of the imagination a Hall of Famer.
Sutter is a more plausible HoF candidate than Fingers. At his peak, he was very dominant. However, the problem with Sutter is that his career was so short, just 1042 1/3 innings. Gossage’s career was almost twice as long (1809 1/3 innings). Quisenberry had almost the identical amount of innings (1043 1/3) as Sutter with a significantly better ERA+, so I don’t see how you could vote for Sutter and not Quis. On this year’s real HoF ballot, all of the following were at least as worthy of induction as Sutter: Gossage, Blyleven, Trammell, Mattingly, Belle, and Will Clark. And Quisenberry got so few votes that he was dropped from the ballot ages ago.
QUOTE (Tudor Fever @ Jan 18 2006, 08:57 PM)
On this much, I completely agree with you.
As VAL asked, why don’t Grich’s numbers convince you?
OK, here’s my argument that Fingers’ induction was a mistake. First of all, racking up a lot of saves is at least as much a function of usage patterns as talent. (You say “As the baseball recognized the value of a “closer”…”; I could at least equally validly say “As the game of baseball started to succumb to the mass delusion that one person should close out all games, regardless of who is best suited on that particular occasion…”) And Fingers was far from historically dominant. His career ERA of 2.90 was barely above pedestrian for his era and home parks, as discussed below. And his AL MVP in 1981 was a complete joke; with 17 win shares, he was fourth best on his own team behind Cooper (22), Thomas (20), and Yount (20). The award should have gone to Rickey Henderson (27) or Dwight Evans (26).
Here are the career ERA+ figures of other famous closers:
Henke 156
Quisenberry 146
Wilhelm 146
Franco 137
Sutter 136
Montgomery 134
Hiller 134
Lee Smith 132
Tekulve 132
Doug Jones 130
Timlin 129
Lyle 127
Gossage 126
Mike Jackson 126
Perranoski 123
Reardon 121
Clay Carroll 120
McMahon 119
Fingers 119
Garber 117
Fingers was a good, not great, pitcher, who happened to play for a great team and to sport facial hair that some found charismatic. He was by no stretch of the imagination a Hall of Famer.
Sutter is a more plausible HoF candidate than Fingers. At his peak, he was very dominant. However, the problem with Sutter is that his career was so short, just 1042 1/3 innings. Gossage’s career was almost twice as long (1809 1/3 innings). Quisenberry had almost the identical amount of innings (1043 1/3) as Sutter with a significantly better ERA+, so I don’t see how you could vote for Sutter and not Quis. On this year’s real HoF ballot, all of the following were at least as worthy of induction as Sutter: Gossage, Blyleven, Trammell, Mattingly, Belle, and Will Clark. And Quisenberry got so few votes that he was dropped from the ballot ages ago.
As VAL asked, why don’t Grich’s numbers convince you?
OK, here’s my argument that Fingers’ induction was a mistake. First of all, racking up a lot of saves is at least as much a function of usage patterns as talent. (You say “As the baseball recognized the value of a “closer”…”; I could at least equally validly say “As the game of baseball started to succumb to the mass delusion that one person should close out all games, regardless of who is best suited on that particular occasion…”) And Fingers was far from historically dominant. His career ERA of 2.90 was barely above pedestrian for his era and home parks, as discussed below. And his AL MVP in 1981 was a complete joke; with 17 win shares, he was fourth best on his own team behind Cooper (22), Thomas (20), and Yount (20). The award should have gone to Rickey Henderson (27) or Dwight Evans (26).
Here are the career ERA+ figures of other famous closers:
Henke 156
Quisenberry 146
Wilhelm 146
Franco 137
Sutter 136
Montgomery 134
Hiller 134
Lee Smith 132
Tekulve 132
Doug Jones 130
Timlin 129
Lyle 127
Gossage 126
Mike Jackson 126
Perranoski 123
Reardon 121
Clay Carroll 120
McMahon 119
Fingers 119
Garber 117
Fingers was a good, not great, pitcher, who happened to play for a great team and to sport facial hair that some found charismatic. He was by no stretch of the imagination a Hall of Famer.
Sutter is a more plausible HoF candidate than Fingers. At his peak, he was very dominant. However, the problem with Sutter is that his career was so short, just 1042 1/3 innings. Gossage’s career was almost twice as long (1809 1/3 innings). Quisenberry had almost the identical amount of innings (1043 1/3) as Sutter with a significantly better ERA+, so I don’t see how you could vote for Sutter and not Quis. On this year’s real HoF ballot, all of the following were at least as worthy of induction as Sutter: Gossage, Blyleven, Trammell, Mattingly, Belle, and Will Clark. And Quisenberry got so few votes that he was dropped from the ballot ages ago.
The problem I have with evaluating relief pitchers is that there just aren't any good metrics for them. ERA doesn't really mean much for closers, since they pitch so few innings and have a small sample size. Many of these guys challenge hitters, which is part of their job, but that often results in high ERA's. Setup guys often have better ERA numbers than closers. Most people agree Saves are a fairly arbitrary thing. Win Shares? Nah, not really. What seems to be left are visions of dominance which favor high visibility guys on championship teams (Fingers, Gossage, Sutter, Rivera, Eckersley), win/save totals which favor hybrids like Wilhelm, Eck or Smoltz, and longevity (i.e. Save totals).
I just can't separate wheat from chaff here.
QUOTE (Vermonter At Large @ Jan 18 2006, 08:35 PM)
The problem I have with evaluating relief pitchers is that there just aren't any good metrics for them. ERA doesn't really mean much for closers, since they pitch so few innings and have a small sample size. Many of these guys challenge hitters, which is part of their job, but that often results in high ERA's. Setup guys often have better ERA numbers than closers. Most people agree Saves are a fairly arbitrary thing. Win Shares? Nah, not really. What seems to be left are visions of dominance which favor high visibility guys on championship teams (Fingers, Gossage, Sutter, Rivera, Eckersley), win/save totals which favor hybrids like Wilhelm, Eck or Smoltz, and longevity (i.e. Save totals).
I just can't separate wheat from chaff here.
Val, your small sample size argument is quite valid for a single season but a full career for a reliever is at least 1000 innings so I think career ERA+ is very meaningful.I just can't separate wheat from chaff here.
(Edit: I don't see the connection between challenging hitters and ERA.)
QUOTE (Tudor Fever @ Jan 18 2006, 09:41 PM)
Val, your small sample size argument is quite valid for a single season but a full career for a reliever is at least 1000 innings so I think career ERA+ is very meaningful.
(Edit: I don't see the connection between challenging hitters and ERA.)
(Edit: I don't see the connection between challenging hitters and ERA.)
Well ... the sample size thing is complicated looking at your list by differing roles. Some of the guys were the old-fashioned relief pitchers who would regularly pitch 2 or three innings. Some spent significant time as starters. Most spent varying amounts of time in different roles as middle, setup or long guys even, in addition to being closers. Different pitching roles do, I think, have different effects on ERA.
Logically, I'm going to have a hard time swallowing John Franco or Mike Timlin having been better relievers than Fingers or Gossage or Reardon or Lyle or Perranoski. ERA+ may tell us something, but certainly not everything about a reliever.
By challenging hitters, I think of guys like Rod Beck, or Eric Gagne, or Dick Radatz or Ryne Duren who were going to blow that ball in there as hard as they can and challenge the hitter. Those guys were much more prone to giving up HRs than some of the more deception-oriented relievers.
QUOTE (Vermonter At Large @ Jan 18 2006, 11:28 PM)
Logically, I'm going to have a hard time swallowing John Franco or Mike Timlin having been better relievers than Fingers or Gossage or Reardon or Lyle or Perranoski. ERA+ may tell us something, but certainly not everything about a reliever.
I agree, but Fingers's ERA+ is so far below so many of his peers that it is quite meaningful.As for challenging hitters, sorry if I'm beating a dead horse but if you look at my list there are power pitchers such as Henke with very good ERA+s. In his 3 great seasons (1962-64), Radatz posted ERA+s of 184, 191, and 168. Duren's was mediocre (98) but that's because he walked a ton of guys, 392 in 589 1/3 innings. (Neither here nor there, but I recall having one of his baseball cards as a kid; talk about coke-bottle glasses, I bet he could not see home plate.)
QUOTE (Tudor Fever @ Jan 19 2006, 12:42 AM)
Duren's was mediocre (98) but that's because he walked a ton of guys, 392 in 589 1/3 innings. (Neither here nor there, but I recall having one of his baseball cards as a kid; talk about coke-bottle glasses, I bet he could not see home plate.)
My Dad told me he used to play on that - the wildness and glasses, and throw one over the backstop occasionally, just to make sure batters didnt dig in against him, lol.
Yeah, its a dead horse. Sorry. I'm just really not into relivers much - I still consider them failed starters in much the same fashion as I still consider the Patriots an AFL team.
QUOTE
By challenging hitters, I think of guys like Rod Beck, or Eric Gagne, or Dick Radatz or Ryne Duren who were going to blow that ball in there as hard as they can and challenge the hitter. Those guys were much more prone to giving up HRs than some of the more deception-oriented relievers.
Which means these guys weren't as good.
Although Beck, Gagne, Radatz were really dominant guys. Beck and Gagne had excellent second pitches, Radatz threw sidearm and could hit the corners, knock you down, whatever. I didn't watch Fingers pitch, but I wouldn't be surprised if he was a guy who threw really hard but had a fastball straight as an arrow. The guy had years of giving up 12, 13 gopher balls in the Oakland Coliseum in the early 70s. A poor hitting era anyway, and he's giving up gopher balls in an enormous pitcher's park? No.
To be an HOF reliever, there is really just no way Paul Lindblad can kick your ass as a pitcher two or three years in a row like he did.
I agree with the Fingers doubters. I loved those A's teams, and have written about them a lot over the years. It is a crime that we have chosen to elect only one person from that great team (assuming Reggie makes it ... oy).
Fingers benefits from being the first good career ace reliever who appeared in the World Series on TV regularly. His save totals weren't particularly great considering his team was in first place every year, but I don't hold this against him. Save totals are ... how to put this ... about as useful to me as hair color. Complete worthless nonsense. Todd Jones has led his league in saves. Antonio Alfonseca has. It means less than nothing.
Fingers was a good pitcher who his managers were sensible enough to use for multiple innings, in tie games, trailing in games, and this kept him from racking up big save totals. So what.
His ability to prevent runs was very good, but not great. However, the list provided by TF understates his value. The only people on that list I would consider comparable to Fingers are the guys who were capable of pitching 100 or more innings every year, the guys with 1700 innings. The difference between John Franco and Rollie Fingers is that, if you have Franco, you need another full-time relief pitcher to pitch the other half of Fingers' innings, someone you have to pay a salary to, and someone who is likely as not going to suck and cost you games, and now you can't carry that extra hitter on the bench, and that's going to cost you games too.
Before anyone tries to say, "But the role has evolved, that's not John Franco's fault", I say, "tough". I am not interested in what John Franco could have done, at least not in this debate. He pitched 50 or 60 innings a year, and that is not remotely comparable to what Fingers did, even he pitches another 10 years. A guy who hits 20 home runs a year for 20 years is not as valuable as a guy who hits 40 HR a year for 10 years. He's just not.
Fingers was not as valuable as Wilhelm (of course), or Gossage, or Quisenberry (too short of a career though), or maybe Sutter. He was not, in my view, a Hall of Famer. But he was an excellent pitcher, and he excelled in a role that is miles more important than any pansy-ass "closer".
I plan to vote for Gossage and no other reliever (with Wilhelm in). I would vote for Rivera too.
Fingers benefits from being the first good career ace reliever who appeared in the World Series on TV regularly. His save totals weren't particularly great considering his team was in first place every year, but I don't hold this against him. Save totals are ... how to put this ... about as useful to me as hair color. Complete worthless nonsense. Todd Jones has led his league in saves. Antonio Alfonseca has. It means less than nothing.
Fingers was a good pitcher who his managers were sensible enough to use for multiple innings, in tie games, trailing in games, and this kept him from racking up big save totals. So what.
His ability to prevent runs was very good, but not great. However, the list provided by TF understates his value. The only people on that list I would consider comparable to Fingers are the guys who were capable of pitching 100 or more innings every year, the guys with 1700 innings. The difference between John Franco and Rollie Fingers is that, if you have Franco, you need another full-time relief pitcher to pitch the other half of Fingers' innings, someone you have to pay a salary to, and someone who is likely as not going to suck and cost you games, and now you can't carry that extra hitter on the bench, and that's going to cost you games too.
Before anyone tries to say, "But the role has evolved, that's not John Franco's fault", I say, "tough". I am not interested in what John Franco could have done, at least not in this debate. He pitched 50 or 60 innings a year, and that is not remotely comparable to what Fingers did, even he pitches another 10 years. A guy who hits 20 home runs a year for 20 years is not as valuable as a guy who hits 40 HR a year for 10 years. He's just not.
Fingers was not as valuable as Wilhelm (of course), or Gossage, or Quisenberry (too short of a career though), or maybe Sutter. He was not, in my view, a Hall of Famer. But he was an excellent pitcher, and he excelled in a role that is miles more important than any pansy-ass "closer".
I plan to vote for Gossage and no other reliever (with Wilhelm in). I would vote for Rivera too.
1994 up...this ballot is a very interesting one.
1994
Steve Carlton
Bobby Grich
Catfish Hunter
Graig Nettles
Phil Niekro
Tony Oliva
Ted Simmons
Reggie Smith
Don Sutton
Vada Pinson
1994
Steve Carlton
Bobby Grich
Catfish Hunter
Graig Nettles
Phil Niekro
Tony Oliva
Ted Simmons
Reggie Smith
Don Sutton
Vada Pinson
Sal Bando
Steve Carlton
Ron Cey
Bobby Grich
Jim Hunter
Phil Niekro
Tony Oliva
Ted Simmons
Reggie Smith
Don Sutton
Simmons is the interesting new guy, and an important selection for us to make, in my view. I expect he will face the same resistance as Grich.
The voting has become a lot tougher, as we haven't voted for anyone who is not obvious in several years.
I will not vote for Jim Rice until Grich is enshrined. Consider Rice a hostage.
Steve Carlton
Ron Cey
Bobby Grich
Jim Hunter
Phil Niekro
Tony Oliva
Ted Simmons
Reggie Smith
Don Sutton
Simmons is the interesting new guy, and an important selection for us to make, in my view. I expect he will face the same resistance as Grich.
The voting has become a lot tougher, as we haven't voted for anyone who is not obvious in several years.
I will not vote for Jim Rice until Grich is enshrined. Consider Rice a hostage.
Tippy Martinez was a key figure in probably the most surreal game I've ever experienced as it unfolded, although July 24, 2004 comes close. I was in DC at the time and listened to it on WTOP.
August 24, 1983, and a very tight 5 way race is going on in the AL East. Toronto comes to Baltimore and has a 3-1 lead going into the 9th. Joe Altobelli makes all sorts of moves and, with 2 out, Ayala and Bumbry each hit RBI singles to tie the game.
Problem is, Altobelli has used up his entire bench and to start the 10th is left with Ripken, Murray, Lenn Sakata, and 6 outfielders. He moves John Lowenstein to 2B, Gary Roenicke to 3B, and Sakata to C. Sakata had not caught since Little League.
Top of the 10th: after Cliff Johnson leads off a mammoth home run, each of the next 3 Jays (Bonnell, Collins, and Upshaw) reach 1st. Tippy picks each of them off. Think about how rare a pick-off play is, and imagine these runners so eager to go on Sakata that Tippy guns them down one after the other. The crowd was beyond delirium.
In the bottom of the 10th, Ripken leads off with a home run and, with 2 out and 2 on, Sakata hits a cheap line drive home run down the left field line to win the game, 7-4.
The Orioles proceeded to go on an 8 week tear to win the World Series, an amazing coda to their glory years.
O's fans may not have a lot going for them these past few years, but they'll always have this.
August 24, 1983, and a very tight 5 way race is going on in the AL East. Toronto comes to Baltimore and has a 3-1 lead going into the 9th. Joe Altobelli makes all sorts of moves and, with 2 out, Ayala and Bumbry each hit RBI singles to tie the game.
Problem is, Altobelli has used up his entire bench and to start the 10th is left with Ripken, Murray, Lenn Sakata, and 6 outfielders. He moves John Lowenstein to 2B, Gary Roenicke to 3B, and Sakata to C. Sakata had not caught since Little League.
Top of the 10th: after Cliff Johnson leads off a mammoth home run, each of the next 3 Jays (Bonnell, Collins, and Upshaw) reach 1st. Tippy picks each of them off. Think about how rare a pick-off play is, and imagine these runners so eager to go on Sakata that Tippy guns them down one after the other. The crowd was beyond delirium.
In the bottom of the 10th, Ripken leads off with a home run and, with 2 out and 2 on, Sakata hits a cheap line drive home run down the left field line to win the game, 7-4.
The Orioles proceeded to go on an 8 week tear to win the World Series, an amazing coda to their glory years.
O's fans may not have a lot going for them these past few years, but they'll always have this.
1994 ballot
Dave Bancroft
Sal Bando
Steve Carlton
Norm Cash
Bobby Grich
Phil Niekro
Pete Rose
Ted Simmons
Ken Singleton
This a very interesting year, with at least eight players worth at least a peek -- Carlton, Simmons, Sutton, Sutter, Nettles, Cruz, Concepcion and Guidry. For now, I'm going with the two no-brainers (Carlton and Simmons), although I'm sure I'll be talked into voting for Sutton, and I wouldn't mind hearing arguments for the other guys.
I see this is Norm Cash's last dance. I know he won't make it, but I remain perplexed that we collectively have given him so little support while putting in Orlando Cepeda overwhelmingly on the first ballot. (I'm not arguing against Cepeda, mind you; I've just never seen much difference between the two). In any event, it's probably too late to even begin to try changing minds . . . and I do recall someone (Lahoud, Tudor or VAL, probably) making a strong argument against Cash. But for all you folks planning on voting for guys like Jim Rice, you may want to give another look to Cash -- whose 1961 trumps Rice's 1978, and whose career overall trumps Rice's in most measures.
Here are my 1B charts, limited only to the post-war and expansion era players that are eligible for our Hall (and even remotely worth discussing):
Dave Bancroft
Sal Bando
Steve Carlton
Norm Cash
Bobby Grich
Phil Niekro
Pete Rose
Ted Simmons
Ken Singleton
This a very interesting year, with at least eight players worth at least a peek -- Carlton, Simmons, Sutton, Sutter, Nettles, Cruz, Concepcion and Guidry. For now, I'm going with the two no-brainers (Carlton and Simmons), although I'm sure I'll be talked into voting for Sutton, and I wouldn't mind hearing arguments for the other guys.
I see this is Norm Cash's last dance. I know he won't make it, but I remain perplexed that we collectively have given him so little support while putting in Orlando Cepeda overwhelmingly on the first ballot. (I'm not arguing against Cepeda, mind you; I've just never seen much difference between the two). In any event, it's probably too late to even begin to try changing minds . . . and I do recall someone (Lahoud, Tudor or VAL, probably) making a strong argument against Cash. But for all you folks planning on voting for guys like Jim Rice, you may want to give another look to Cash -- whose 1961 trumps Rice's 1978, and whose career overall trumps Rice's in most measures.
Here are my 1B charts, limited only to the post-war and expansion era players that are eligible for our Hall (and even remotely worth discussing):
CODE
CHART #1: CAREER OVERVIEW
Name Years G-1B PA OPS+ RC/27 WS WS/PA BFW WARP1 WARP3 W1/PA W3/PA FR/RG/THR/JM
Mize 36-53 1667 7371 158 8.5 338 29.7 37.7 105.0 101.5 7.12 6.89 -7/ 96/ 97/B
Vernon^ 39-60 2237 9834 116 5.5 296 19.5 3.5 79.3 72.2 4.03 3.67 -39/ 94/ 97/B-
Hodges^ 43-63 1908 8104 120 6.2 263 21.0 13.8 81.1 80.5 5.00 4.97 33/102/109/B
Kluszewski^47-61 1481 6470 123 6.5 203 20.3 2.8 53.2 51.5 4.11 3.98 -75/ 80/ 99/C+
Killebrew 54-75 969 9831 143 6.6 371 24.5 32.6 108.7 99.3 5.53 5.05 -90/ 97/ 96/B
Cepeda 58-74 1683 8695 133 6.2 310 23.1 19.1 91.0 86.6 5.23 4.98 -38/ 92/ 92/C+
Cash^ 58-74 1943 7910 139 6.4 315 25.8 30.5 105.4 95.1 6.66 6.01 60/109/ 92/A-
McCovey 59-80 2045 9686 148 6.9 408 27.3 39.0 109.1 101.3 5.63 5.23 -27/ 99/ 94/C-
Powell^ 61-77 1479 7810 134 5.9 282 23.4 18.7 77.2 69.5 4.94 4.45 -13/ 97/107/C-
Allen** 63-77 807 7314 156 7.3 342 30.3 39.2 94.6 90.0 6.47 6.15 -44/ 90/100/C
Perez* 64-86 1778 10861 122 5.6 349 20.8 10.3 110.2 102.7 5.07 4.73 -54/ 90/103/B-
Watson^ 66-84 1088 6962 128 5.9 236 22.0 12.3 65.1 60.9 4.67 4.37 -28/ 99/ 95/C+
Garvey^ 69-87 2059 9466 116 5.3 279 19.1 (5.8) 89.3 82.8 4.72 4.37 -79/ 78/ 99/A
(* = in real Hall but not our Hall; ** = in our hall but not real Hall; ^ = in neither).
Name Years G-1B PA OPS+ RC/27 WS WS/PA BFW WARP1 WARP3 W1/PA W3/PA FR/RG/THR/JM
Mize 36-53 1667 7371 158 8.5 338 29.7 37.7 105.0 101.5 7.12 6.89 -7/ 96/ 97/B
Vernon^ 39-60 2237 9834 116 5.5 296 19.5 3.5 79.3 72.2 4.03 3.67 -39/ 94/ 97/B-
Hodges^ 43-63 1908 8104 120 6.2 263 21.0 13.8 81.1 80.5 5.00 4.97 33/102/109/B
Kluszewski^47-61 1481 6470 123 6.5 203 20.3 2.8 53.2 51.5 4.11 3.98 -75/ 80/ 99/C+
Killebrew 54-75 969 9831 143 6.6 371 24.5 32.6 108.7 99.3 5.53 5.05 -90/ 97/ 96/B
Cepeda 58-74 1683 8695 133 6.2 310 23.1 19.1 91.0 86.6 5.23 4.98 -38/ 92/ 92/C+
Cash^ 58-74 1943 7910 139 6.4 315 25.8 30.5 105.4 95.1 6.66 6.01 60/109/ 92/A-
McCovey 59-80 2045 9686 148 6.9 408 27.3 39.0 109.1 101.3 5.63 5.23 -27/ 99/ 94/C-
Powell^ 61-77 1479 7810 134 5.9 282 23.4 18.7 77.2 69.5 4.94 4.45 -13/ 97/107/C-
Allen** 63-77 807 7314 156 7.3 342 30.3 39.2 94.6 90.0 6.47 6.15 -44/ 90/100/C
Perez* 64-86 1778 10861 122 5.6 349 20.8 10.3 110.2 102.7 5.07 4.73 -54/ 90/103/B-
Watson^ 66-84 1088 6962 128 5.9 236 22.0 12.3 65.1 60.9 4.67 4.37 -28/ 99/ 95/C+
Garvey^ 69-87 2059 9466 116 5.3 279 19.1 (5.8) 89.3 82.8 4.72 4.37 -79/ 78/ 99/A
(* = in real Hall but not our Hall; ** = in our hall but not real Hall; ^ = in neither).
CODE
CHART #2: YEAR-BY-YEAR
WARP1 batting awards WS WS WARP 3
Name 7/10 Top 10s M/AS/GG/W 20/25/30 TOP 7 seasons best 3/5/8
Mize 10/ 3 7/ 9/ 9/ 9/ 9 6/10/-/1 10/9/6 34/33/33/32/32/30/28 9.9/ 9.9/ 9.4
Vernon 3/ 0 4/ 4/ 4/ 5/ 4 3/7/-/6 8/2/1 33/29/24/21/21/21/20 8.0/ 7.2/ 6.3
Hodges 5/ 1 1/ 3/ 6/ 4/ 6 3/8/3/4 9/4/0 29/26/26/25/23/21/21 9.1/ 8.5/ 7.7
Kluszewski 2/ 0 7/ 3/ 6/ 5/ 4 3/4/0/1 5/2/1 33/25/24/23/20/16/13 7.5/ 6.6/ 5.6
Killebrew 8/ 2 1/ 9/11/10/10 7/11/0/1 12/5/4 38/34/33/30/27/24/24 9.3/ 8.5/ 7.9
Cepeda 5/ 0 8/ 3/ 9/ 7/ 7 3/7/0/2 9/5/2 34/30/29/26/26/23/23 9.3/ 8.8/ 7.8
Cash 6/ 1 2/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 3 1/4/0/6 8/2/1 42/27/24/24/23/23/21 9.9/ 8.9/ 7.9
McCovey 6/ 2 2/ 7/ 8/ 7/ 6 4/6/0/0 9/7/4 39/34/34/33/29/29/25 9.7/ 8.9/ 7.9
Powell 3/ 0 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 4 3/4/0/0 6/4/1 31/29/27/26/23/22/19 8.3/ 7.3/ 6.3
Allen 7/ 3 6/ 7/ 8/10/ 8 3/7/0/1 9/7/5 41/40/35/33/32/29/29 10.9/10.0/ 8.8
Perez 8/ 1 2/ 2/ 5/ 3/ 4 3/7/0/0 8/5/3 33/32/31/25/25/23/23 9.5/ 8.7/ 7.9
Watson 1/ 0 5/ 2/ 1/ 3/ 3 0/2/0/0 5/3/1 31/28/26/23/20/18/17 6.6/ 6.3/ 5.9
Garvey 5/ 0 6/ 2/ 1/ 0/ 7 5/10/4/7 7/4/0 27/26/25/25/22/22/21 8.5/ 8.1/ 7.3
WARP1 batting awards WS WS WARP 3
Name 7/10 Top 10s M/AS/GG/W 20/25/30 TOP 7 seasons best 3/5/8
Mize 10/ 3 7/ 9/ 9/ 9/ 9 6/10/-/1 10/9/6 34/33/33/32/32/30/28 9.9/ 9.9/ 9.4
Vernon 3/ 0 4/ 4/ 4/ 5/ 4 3/7/-/6 8/2/1 33/29/24/21/21/21/20 8.0/ 7.2/ 6.3
Hodges 5/ 1 1/ 3/ 6/ 4/ 6 3/8/3/4 9/4/0 29/26/26/25/23/21/21 9.1/ 8.5/ 7.7
Kluszewski 2/ 0 7/ 3/ 6/ 5/ 4 3/4/0/1 5/2/1 33/25/24/23/20/16/13 7.5/ 6.6/ 5.6
Killebrew 8/ 2 1/ 9/11/10/10 7/11/0/1 12/5/4 38/34/33/30/27/24/24 9.3/ 8.5/ 7.9
Cepeda 5/ 0 8/ 3/ 9/ 7/ 7 3/7/0/2 9/5/2 34/30/29/26/26/23/23 9.3/ 8.8/ 7.8
Cash 6/ 1 2/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 3 1/4/0/6 8/2/1 42/27/24/24/23/23/21 9.9/ 8.9/ 7.9
McCovey 6/ 2 2/ 7/ 8/ 7/ 6 4/6/0/0 9/7/4 39/34/34/33/29/29/25 9.7/ 8.9/ 7.9
Powell 3/ 0 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 4 3/4/0/0 6/4/1 31/29/27/26/23/22/19 8.3/ 7.3/ 6.3
Allen 7/ 3 6/ 7/ 8/10/ 8 3/7/0/1 9/7/5 41/40/35/33/32/29/29 10.9/10.0/ 8.8
Perez 8/ 1 2/ 2/ 5/ 3/ 4 3/7/0/0 8/5/3 33/32/31/25/25/23/23 9.5/ 8.7/ 7.9
Watson 1/ 0 5/ 2/ 1/ 3/ 3 0/2/0/0 5/3/1 31/28/26/23/20/18/17 6.6/ 6.3/ 5.9
Garvey 5/ 0 6/ 2/ 1/ 0/ 7 5/10/4/7 7/4/0 27/26/25/25/22/22/21 8.5/ 8.1/ 7.3
1994
Steve Carlton
Bobby Grich
Catfish Hunter
Phil Niekro
Don Sutton
Steve Carlton
Bobby Grich
Catfish Hunter
Phil Niekro
Don Sutton
Steve Carlton
Rollie Fingers
Bobby Grich
Catfish Hunter
Donnie Moore (one vote for one game)
Bruce Sutter
I'm leaning towards P Niekro, Simmons, and Sutton, but probably not until the next ballot. First ballot threshhold is different for me (I know it's Phil's second).
Rollie Fingers
Bobby Grich
Catfish Hunter
Donnie Moore (one vote for one game)
Bruce Sutter
I'm leaning towards P Niekro, Simmons, and Sutton, but probably not until the next ballot. First ballot threshhold is different for me (I know it's Phil's second).
I have a HoF question, which comes more or less from another non-baseball board;
Suppose a 17yr old baseball player would enter the MLB, batting .400+, hitting 70+ homers and get voted MVP, all that for 4 seasons in a row -- and then he rertired, voluntarily at 22 never to play again....what are the chances that he would be elected to the Hall of Fame?
Suppose a 17yr old baseball player would enter the MLB, batting .400+, hitting 70+ homers and get voted MVP, all that for 4 seasons in a row -- and then he rertired, voluntarily at 22 never to play again....what are the chances that he would be elected to the Hall of Fame?
The HOF rules state you must play 10 years, a rule that has been sort of violated a few times and blatantly violated once.
So the answers are: (1) its against the rules, and (2) they would almost definitely change the rules and let him or her in.
Of course, this would be such an extraordinary story that the reasons and circumstances behind his or her retirement would play a role in how it all played out.
So the answers are: (1) its against the rules, and (2) they would almost definitely change the rules and let him or her in.
Of course, this would be such an extraordinary story that the reasons and circumstances behind his or her retirement would play a role in how it all played out.
QUOTE (Fred not Lynn @ Jan 20 2006, 12:50 PM)
I have a HoF question, which comes more or less from another non-baseball board;
Suppose a 17yr old baseball player would enter the MLB, batting .400+, hitting 70+ homers and get voted MVP, all that for 4 seasons in a row -- and then he rertired, voluntarily at 22 never to play again....what are the chances that he would be elected to the Hall of Fame?
Suppose a 17yr old baseball player would enter the MLB, batting .400+, hitting 70+ homers and get voted MVP, all that for 4 seasons in a row -- and then he rertired, voluntarily at 22 never to play again....what are the chances that he would be elected to the Hall of Fame?
0%. To be eligible, you have to play for 10 years, unless you're Addie Joss, in which case you're allowed to play for 9 years so long as your playing career is ended by your own death.
(edit: beaten to the punch by Lahoud. I agree that they'd probably change the rules.)
QUOTE (LahoudOrBillyC @ Jan 20 2006, 10:54 AM)
The HOF rules state you must play 10 years, a rule that has been sort of violated a few times and blatantly violated once.
So the answers are: (1) its against the rules, and (2) they would almost definitely change the rules and let him or her in.
Of course, this would be such an extraordinary story that the reasons and circumstances behind his or her retirement would play a role in how it all played out.
Well...that didn't give me a clear answer. I guess I'll clarify; Is this player's accomplishment Hall of Fame worthy, 10 year rule aside?So the answers are: (1) its against the rules, and (2) they would almost definitely change the rules and let him or her in.
Of course, this would be such an extraordinary story that the reasons and circumstances behind his or her retirement would play a role in how it all played out.
And the circumstances behind the retirement are pretty strightforward; He didn't feel like playing baseball anymore.
QUOTE (Fred not Lynn @ Jan 20 2006, 12:50 PM)
I have a HoF question, which comes more or less from another non-baseball board;
Suppose a 17yr old baseball player would enter the MLB, batting .400+, hitting 70+ homers and get voted MVP, all that for 4 seasons in a row -- and then he rertired, voluntarily at 22 never to play again....what are the chances that he would be elected to the Hall of Fame?
Suppose a 17yr old baseball player would enter the MLB, batting .400+, hitting 70+ homers and get voted MVP, all that for 4 seasons in a row -- and then he rertired, voluntarily at 22 never to play again....what are the chances that he would be elected to the Hall of Fame?
It's a good question: dominance vs. duration. How dominant must a player be over his peak to earn enshrinement? Koufax and Niekro kin of serve as the 2 poles of this debate.
Delta mentioned Guidry was worth a peek, but why? 1978 was clearly dominant. But Guidry didn't beceom a full-time starter until he was 26. He had 2 declining seasons at the end and another 2 not-so-hot seasons towards the end. In all, that makes 1 dominant season and 8 good-to-very-good years.
And to jump back to the Fingers debate, if there are park-adjustments, league-adjustments, and so on...why not a role-adjustment? How well did player X execute his role(s) during his career? I mean, Clemens has executed the role as an SP very well, but that's not the same role Walter Johnson executed.
Way back in the early days of this thread, on the old board, there was an interesting discussion of peak vs. career value centered around Dizzy Dean, whose career essentially consisted of 5 1/2 great season, and Ted Lyons, whose career essentially consisted of 19 mediocre to quite good seasons. Both ultimately got in to our Hall. (By the way, check out Lyons's 1942 season: age 41, 20 starts, 20 CG, ERA+ of 171. That's about as close to perfection as you can reasonably hope for in the real world. IIRC, he pretty much pitched only on Sundays in one of the doubleheader games.)
To answer the hypothetical: what is the context? Does he play in an extreme hitters park and/or an extreme hitters era? And is your question "does he deseve to be in the HoF" or "would he get in the HoF"?
Assuming a normal hitting environment, and assuming that he didn't deliberately try to lose games, my $.02 would be that he should get in.
To answer the hypothetical: what is the context? Does he play in an extreme hitters park and/or an extreme hitters era? And is your question "does he deseve to be in the HoF" or "would he get in the HoF"?
Assuming a normal hitting environment, and assuming that he didn't deliberately try to lose games, my $.02 would be that he should get in.
All things being equal (he was not playing with extreme park advantages, he was not a horrible defensive player or a horrible teammate), I would vote for him. The object is to win games and championships, and his achievements would be equal or better than many real Hall of Famers.
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