2002 Lowell Spinners
From SoSH
2002 Lowell Spinners Season Ending Report
Generally on the NY-Penn League
More than most leagues, the NY-Penn League is a strange mix of players with very few prospects bobbing on an obviously filler sea. Generally, the NYPL gets players form the following groups:
- college guys drafted in the 10th to 25th rd in early June - very good college players drafted in the high rounds that often play very little after signing late. - Players who spent the previous year in the GCL, but weren’t deemed good enough to make a full season roster. If these players are especially young or international signings who need an easier transition to American professional baseball, then these players might be pretty good prospects. More often – they didn’t make a full season team because they just aren’t that good.
The first group is drafted as roster filler – the guys who fill out rosters and make teams for the prospects to play in. The second group are prospects, but often don’t play enough to make much of a difference. As an example, Casey Fossum pitched 14 IP in his draft year. The third group might contain some prospects, but most prospects don’t spend a year on a “not good enough to play at the next level” team.
In a lot of ways many NYPL teams are younger versions of a AAA team filled with 30 yr old minor league lifers.
Specifically on your 2002 Lowell Spinners
The Spinners finished 34-41. That was good enough for 2nd in a bad division, but was a more appropriate 8th in a 14-team league. That’s basically what all their team stats look like – a bit below mediocre on offense and just plain bad on pitching.
Their .242 BA was 12th in the league, but seven teams were clustered between .242-.249. They finished 6th in runs, in a 4-way tie for 9th in HR, 4th in strikeouts, a 2-way tie for 4th in walks and 7th in SB. The standout stat is the walks and that was without one player like Youkilis dominating the category. Instead, most of the players had pretty decent walk rates. The flip side is the lack of consistent contact and power.
On the pitching side, they finished 11th in ERA, 12th in HR allowed, 7th in BB, 6th in SO and 12th in hits.
A look at successful Spinners of old
This is the 7th season in Lowell and I thought I’d look back at the previous teams to see what successful NYPL players look like. These are all the players who appeared in a Spinners game and later made the majors plus some recent players with a chance to reach the majors.
1996 - Shea Hillenbrand, Steve Lomasney, Wilton Veras, Jack Cressend, Matt Kinney
1997 - David Eckstein
1998 - Adam Everett, Josh Hancock, Mike Maroth
1999 - Casey Fossum; Lew Ford is close, we hope Gamble and Anastacio Martinez will get there
2000 - Freddy Sanchez; guys with shots - Blanco, Seiber, Sherrod, Elmore, Montalbano, Song
2001 - Just hopefuls - Edgar Martinez, Kevin Youkilis, Dumatrait, Huang
If you close your eyes and dream you can just about see one regular per year coming from the Spinners. Let’s look a little more closely at the successes.
Hillenbrand was a 10th rd pick out of JC. He signed quickly enough to play 72 games and get 279 AB. That’s the draft pedigree of someone signed as filler. He hit 315/371/416 as a 20/21 yr old . Surprisingly his initial pro walk rate – 18 in 279 AB – wasn’t awful. After that he was closer to 18 BB in 500 AB in the minors. Digressing a bit – it looks like Hilly became a worse hacker after he started working his way up the system for whatever that’s worth. Because of position changes and injury his rise through the minors was full of starts and stops, but he did end up playing half the season after Lowell in Hi-A hitting 295/320/377 – fewer singles, fewer walks and still not much power. At no point in the minors was Hilly really considered much of a prospect. Hilly’s current SLG is .468, 52 points higher than his Lowell SLG and 91 points higher than his Hi-A SLG. Unless the player has to be a middle of the order hitter to be valuable, then I wouldn’t worry about A ball slugging percentages around .400. Clearly, as the player gets older and more experience there’s room for significant power increases.
Eckstein was a 19th rd pick as a college senior. He signed quickly enough to get in 68 games with 249 AB. Even more so than Hilly, that’s the pedigree of a filler signing. He hit 301/407/426 as a 22 yr old. Despite not being a traditional prospect he skipped straight to Hi-A and had basically the same year. He moved to AA and had the same success (maybe a bit better) in his 3rd year and then seemingly crashed in his 4th yr. At no point in the minors was Eckstein really considered much of a prospect.
Sanchez was an 11th rd pick as a college senior. He signed quickly and would have played a full year in Lowell except for a rare mid-season promotion. He hit 288/347/439 in 132 AB as a 22 yr old. He hit 303/372/367 in 109 AB in lo-A of his draft year. The next season he started in Hi-A and hit 339/388/446 before getting another mid-season promotion. Despite a career 320/371/439 batting line coming into this year Sanchez has never been considered more than a marginal prospect.
Youkilis was an 8th rd pick as a college senior. He signed quickly and played in 59 games before a late season promotion. He was picked a bit higher than most filler, but the fact that he was a college senior marks this as another filler signing. He hit 317/512/464 in 183 AB as a 22 yr old. The freakshow walk rate was enough to garner attention, but not real notice as a prospect. He started the next year in lo-A, but was quickly promoted to Hi-A were he hit 295/422/388 earning a promotion to AA where he hit 344/462/500. That performance will get him noticed by performance analysts, but isn’t likely to sway the tools guys very much.
All four of these players have a few things in common. They were drafted as filler. They had to prove themselves at every level of the organization right up through the majors. They all hit for high averages (everybody over .300 except Sanchez who probably would have gotten there if he had stayed in Lowell). They had good to great OBP and middling power numbers. Additionally, despite their lack of prospect status they all managed to get in at least a half season in Hi-A the following year. At least for the older Lowell hitters I think those are the things you need to look for.
There isn’t such a neat pattern for the pitchers. Part of the reason is that the likely best pitcher to go through Lowell, Casey Fossum, pitched just 14 IP there in his draft year. He signed early enough to pitch more, but as is often the case the Sox chose to give a heavily used Division I college pitcher most of the summer off to recoup from a heavy college workload. As expected of a high draft pick from college Fossum started the next y ear in Hi-A and moved up quickly.
Cressend was an undrafted college free agent. He pitched in Lowell at age 21 posting a 2.36 ERA, a 1.18 WH/IP and 57/17 K/BB ratio in 45.67 IP. He moved up to Hi-A the next year where his ERA rose to 3.80 and his peripherals declined. He made it to AA the following year and posted a 4.34 ERA with worse peripherals. He started the next year awfully in AA and was lost on waivers in a situation similar to Eckstein’s. He ended up in a AAA bullpen and pitched well enough to get a chance in Minn. He pitched well last year in low leverage situations, but fell off quite a bit this year.
Kinney was a 6th rd draft pick out of a Maine HS in 1995. He pitched 27.67 IP in the GCL that summer and spent all of 1996 in Lowell at age 19. He posted a 2.68 ERA, a 1.28 WH/IP and a 72/44 BB/K ratio in 87.33 IP. He moved up to lo-A in 1997 and Hi-A in 1998 with increasingly worse walk rates. He was traded that summer to the Twins in the Swindell deal. He had an injury plagued 1999 season in AA, but bounced back with what looked like a breakout AA year in 2000. He’s spent the last couple years bouncing between AAA and Minn still with a chance to make it, but not much more than that.
Song is probably the best pitching prospect that spent a full year in Lowell. At age 19/20 he posted 2.60 ERA, a 1.14 WH/IP and a 93/20 K/BB ratio in 75 IP. He followed that year with a dominant performance in Lo-A and Hi-A. He struggled in AA before being traded for Cliff Floyd.
Elmore is a typical successful later rd college filler type. He pitched in Lowell immediately after being selected in the 17th rd of the 2000 draft. At age 23 he posted a 1.89 ERA, a 0.97 WH/IP and a 55/14 K/BB ratio in 71 IP. He pitched roughly as well up through AA, but hasn’t been very good in a couple brief looks in AAA.
If there’s a pattern there, I can’t see it.
I’ve taken quick looks at some old BA Top 10 lists from the NYPL and there aren’t a lot of success though I’m not sure how many players they just missed. Hillenbrand and Eckstein didn’t make the list. In Hillenbrand’s year Aramis Ramirez was the top prospect, good choice, but none of the other guys have amounted to much. In Eckstein’s year Vernon Wells, Adam Kennedy and Randy Wolf made it, but both Wells and Wolf were very high draft choices.
Player by player – Hitters
The players on Lowell really break down into two simple groups – Hanley Ramirez and everybody else – but I’ll break down the “everybody elses” into some smaller groups as well.
Latest update is that Ramirez will apparently be named the top prospect in both the GCL and NYPL. I was going to do a bit on the history of that designation, but I’ll save that for when it happens. I went looking through the archives to find some comments on Ramirez and I’m just going to collect some of them here.
"He's just an outstanding prospect," agreed Boulanger. "He can do a lot of things. His instincts are what's most impressive to me. He has a feel for the game, and you can't teach that. He's probably had it since he was 12."
From Baseball America’s SS of the Future online story:
Hanley Ramirez is being billed as the next hot shot at the position, despite having just a half year of experience between the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League and short-season Lowell. The 18-year-old Dominican batted .345 in 197 Rookie-level Dominican Summer League at-bats in 2001, and his arrival in the States has been more than Red Sox officials anticipated.
"As a hitter he shows the ability to cover the plate and hit different types of pitches," Red Sox assistant farm director Ben Cherington said. "There is no one pitch that gives him trouble. In our mind, he has an advanced idea at the plate given his age and background. He has the ability to control the strike zone."
From the Lowell Sun:
Boulanger is quickly running out of superlatives to describe his prodigy.
"By now you know how I feel about him," Boulanger said. "I think he's the best prospect in the organization." What impresses Boulanger as much as Ramirez' talent is his work ethic, something often lacking in ballplayers with superior ability. "The kid just loves baseball," Boulanger said. "He takes groundballs for 20 minutes, and you tell him to take a break and he wants to take more groundballs. "It's nice to see a guy with such good work habits, especially someone with his athletic ability."
This is a long post from BigMike comparing Ramirez and Blanco on the subject of plate discipline:
It will be interesting to see how real Ramirez' plate discipline is as he moves up the system
Tony Blanco started out ok in the Dominican League. Not a great ratio, but his walks/ AT Bat ratio was 1/8.5 . When he moved to the GCL his patience dropped a little, but not a whole lot to 1/10.6. In Augusta they dropped off the map to 1/21.8 . This year he is an absurd 1/52
I don't have Ramirez' DSL stats currently, so I don't know what his baseline was. This year in the GCL Ramirez walk to AtBat Ratio was 1/10.25 . Almost Identical to what Blanco did in the GCL
Now look at the 2 of them for their GCL season
Blanco 190 AB 73 hits 13 DB 1 TR 13 HR 50 RBI 18 BB 38 SO Ramirez 164 AB 56 hits 11 DB 3 Tr 6 HR 26 RBI 16 BB 15 SO
I don't really see that we can make any judgement based on their GCL stats that Hanley Ramirez has the slightest bit more patience as a hitter than Blanco did at a similar age. If anything the fact that he strikes out less would indicate that he puts the ball in play more quickly. One area in which Ramirez seems superior is that he has more speed, as indicated by more SB, and a few extra triples. by the same token Blanco showed significantly more power.
I just don't think you can read that much into GCL stats for patience. Sure it is great when a player does well, certainly better than a player who fails. But also remember the league is mostly very raw young pitchers, many of whom for the first time in their career are throwing a curveball because they NEED to, as opposed to just messing around with one.
Lets see how much patience Hanley shows in Lowell, when he is going to face some college kids who do nothing but throw curves, and GOOD curves
I'm not saying that Hanley is not a good prospect. He clearly has some very significant raw tools. Let's see how this transition goes . -
Let’s go to the stats and see how that transition went. In the GCL Ramirez hit 341/402/555 with a 15/16 BB/K ratio in 164 AB. In Lowell he hit 371/400/536 with a 4/14 BB/K ratio in 97 AB. His triple crown percentage line is very similar. The underlying control of the strike zone was very different.
Ramirez is a good prospect, but right now he’s much closer to Tony Blanco than Alfonso Soriano. To me players in half season leagues cannot be great prospects. They’re too far away and facing competition of very questionable ability. If he can excel in Augusta, then it radically opens the possibilities for a young prospect. While a great year in half season leagues can get you on half season prospect lists and the back of the BA Top 100, a great year in lo-A can get you onto the Futures Game All Star showcase and into the BA Top 20. Ramirez is about three very good months in Augusta from becoming a signature prospect. Or not.
Here’s a scouting report from DH3:
Hanley Ramirez is good, but put the Soriano and Nomar comparisons on ice for now. His arm strength was definitely below average for a top notch SS, but should be very good for 2B and passable if they want him in LF or 3B. He's REALLY fast too. At the plate he showed a good deal of discipline. He laid off several close pitches in his first at bat before flying out to medium deep rightcenter. Also had a 4-pitch walk and a rope double down the leftfield line on a 2-0 pitch.
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There were three position players who looked like potential prospects heading into this year either due to draft position or their play for the Sox in 2001.
Alberto Concepcion – 225/354/359 with a 31/51 BB/K ratio in 209 AB.
Concepcion was a 2nd rd draft pick out of HS by the Padres (then run by Larry Luchino coincidentally). He didn’t sign likely turning his back on a 500k signing bonus. He had an OK career at USC. He was ranked #18 in Southern Cal by BA and considered a potential 2nd to 5th rd pick. He slid all the way to the 21st rd and as a result was considered tough sign. There was an anonymous report that had him signing for around 250k, which would be 4th rd money, but that’s never been confirmed. Here’s his pre-draft scouting report from BA:
The jury is still out on Concepcion, a second-round pick in 1999 who has gotten maximum exposure in three years at Southern California catching the likes of Mark Prior and other high-profile pitchers. Scouts aren't sure he can catch he can catch professionally, though he will get the opportunity. He is polished mechanically behind the plate, but questions remain about his arm and footwork. His bat is not as much of an issue. He doesn't show consistent power, but he was leading the Pac-10 with a .399 average--a surge over the.314 mark he compiled in his first two seasons at USC. Scouts attribute the improvement to staying better balanced on offspeed pitches. He has learned to turn on balls more consistently, leading to a career-best 10 homers, and hits to all fields.
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A report from TeamOne:
Concepcion, a former 2nd Round pick ('99) of the Padres, is a hulking catcher with power potential at the plate and a strong throwing arm. Concepcion hit 15 home runs combined as a freshman and sophomore and has the potential to hit that many as a junior. Look for him to break out in 2002.
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For someone whose bat is not is not much of an issue he sure did struggle in Lowell. His BB/K ration is fine and his K rate isn’t a problem for a power hitter, but he just never found his stroke. Didn’t hit for average and didn’t hit for power. His stat line is a pretty big red flag at this point, but until he gets a chance at full season ball we’ll just have to hope it was an unusually tough adjustment and that the tools evident in his scouting reports will come through next year. The interesting thing about Concepcion is that his default position wasn’t 1B, but the much more demanding 3B. He end up splitting his games played pretty evenly – 22 at 3B and 25 at C. If he can play either of those positions defensively and his bat does develop, he can be an interesting prospect.
I haven’t seen any indications of which position he’ll end up at next year. Ideally, he’ll be able to make the jump to Hi-A, but I don’t see an obvious opening. His three potential positions – C, 3B, 1B – are all expected to be filled by decent prospects, Edgar Martinez, Tony Blanco and Matt Cooper. Cooper may not be a huge obstacle, but the Sox are in no position to shunt aside any prospects. It looks to me like Concepcion is Augusta bound which seems to have openings at all three positions. If he plays most of the year in the SAL he’ll have a hard time getting prospect consideration at his age. On the other hand, if he sticks at catcher he could give the Sox nice depth at that position with Shoppach, Martinez and Concepcion forming a pretty solid, diverse catching group from AA on down.
Here’s a scouting report from DH3:
Alberto Concepcion is a bonafide prospect. He has a good short stroke and excellent bat speed. He went 2-4 tonight with a double and only a diving stop prevented it from being 3-4. Also hit three scorching foul balls.
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Eric West
West was the Sox 6th rd pick in 2001 out of an Alabama HS. He played briefly in the GCL and showed good power potential hitting 256/344/488. It was a bit of a disappointment that he couldn’t make the jump to Augusta this year. His performance in Lowell was a major disappointment. He hit 240/348/289 with a 34/48 BB/K ratio in 240 AB. That’s a nice walk rate, but his power completely disappeared and he didn’t consistently make good contact. Additionally, he is very small physically.
That’s the kind of package – small stature, good eye, scrappy middle infielder – that you sometimes see succeeding as a late rd college pick. That we’re already hoping he develops into an Eckstein/Sanchez type is a pretty good indication that West was a poor draft pick. If you can get small scrappy middle infielders out of the college ranks in the later rounds, then it doesn’t make sense to use a higher rd pick on a HS version. Sox would have been better off taking a shot at a college masher or a physically more projectable HS kid.
I should also mentioned that Ramirez pushed him to 2B. I assume he’ll be in a battle with Luis Cruz and Juan Salazar to play 2B in Augusta across from Ramirez.
Here are some scouting reports on West from last winter:
Graded a C prospect by John Sickels (one of many), STATS 2002 Minor League Scouting Notebook. Selected comments: “almost half his hits in the GCL went for extra bases marking him as someone to watch” “looks to have a potentially strong bat – keep track of him”
Best Athlete – “solid tools across the board. He has the arm and range to stick shortstop, plus hitting ability and speed.” “West isn’t as fast (as Coffey) but has better instincts.” - BA 2001 Draft Guide, BA Issue No 0123, 11/25/01
“Right now, we think Erik’s a good, young shortstop. Defensively, he’s sound and has a good arm. What’s surprised me is that for a lean kid (6-0, 170) he’s hit for power.” - Kent Qualls, Director of Player Development, Diehard, Sept 2001. -
Here’s a scouting report from DH3:
Eric West is S-M-A-L-L! He's shorter than listed, skinnier than listed, and his shoulders are about as big as my little sister's. He generates decent bat speed from a short stroke and also showed the ability to lay off pitcher's pitches. If he can fill out at all, he has David Eckstein upside, but I don't think he's as fast.
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Brown was a 35th rd pick in the June 2000 draft. He was signed prior to the 2001 draft as a draft and follow. I’ve seen rumors of a six figure bonus, but nothing confirmed. The draft and follow process is generally used for pitchers. I can’t think of any good position players who entered pro ball that way.
Brown didn’t do much in the GCL last year with some time at C. He repeated this year and hit 321/404/440 with a very good BB/K ratio of 23/24 in 159 AB. He split his time in the GCL between C and OF. He played in the OF exclusively in Lowell and hit 282/371/346 with an 8/20 BB/K ratio in 78 AB. His power disappeared and his BB/K ratio slipped quite a bit, but it’s not that big of a sample. I’m guessing he’s going to progress as an OF at this point with a career path similar to Justin Sherrod’s. Solid development has him doing OK in AA in 2004 with a shot to be a 4th OF.
Here’s a scouting report from DH3:
Dusty Brown did not impress at all. He whiffed chasing high, medium-hard stuff in his first two at bats, and failed to get the ball out of the infield in the other two. I saw a lazy, long swing. But it was only one game at the end of a long season, his numbers are good so maybe I caught him on a bad night.
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The next group of players is June of 2002 draft picks who might have chances to turn themselves into prospects if they do well in full season ball next year.
Mike Goss and Mike Barclay
They make for a good pair. Both were drafted out of college – Goss in the 11th rd and Barclay in the 28th rd – and were considered good value potential sleepers in the filler stage of the draft and both had season ending injuries.
Barclay was hit in the face after 16 AB. Here’s the TeamOne scouting report:
Injuries hampered him his junior year and Barclay went undrafted.
He is a very fast runner and has stellar defensive skills. Barclay has the range for center and a major league arm as well.
He's very slender at 6-3, 180, and will need to gain strength to advance in pro ball. He may have to learn the slap-and-run game to exploit his speed. -
Looks like injuries have been repeated problem. From the report he’s more of an athlete than a hitter at this point. The big problem is that he already turned 23 in early August. Twenty-three year olds with 16 career pro AB are long, long shots.
Goss hit 398/438/446 with a 4/15 BB/K ratio in 83 AB and he also added 14 SB in 18 attempts. His season ended abruptly with a broken finger. He played the season at a more reasonable 21. Obviously, he’s not a 398 hitter. What if we turn enough singles into outs to drop him to a still very good, but more reasonable 320? If I turn 6 singles into outs his line becomes: 325/371/373. His OBP is better than you might expect from his 4 walks because he was also hit by two pitches. Overall, that line shows how little secondary hitting skills he showed – in addition of the 6 free passes to first base he only had 3 extra bases hits. If, if, if, if he’s got CF skills and good athleticism and he can maintain his high average hitting like Freddy Sanchez (also an 11th rd pick) did and he can get a 50 point slug bump as he moves up the ladder, then maybe he’s got a chance.
These two players are much more athletic than Sherrod, but I think that’s the career path. If they can hit the ground running in A ball, then maybe they can stake a foothold for a reserve slot down the line.
Since I mentioned a Sherrod type career path let me do a quick recap of what that might look like. Sherrod was drafted in the 19th rd of the 2000 out of a pretty good small college. He signed quickly and played a full season in Lowell at age 22. He hit 225/316/358 with a 25/74 BB/K ratio in 204 AB. In 2001 he hit 290/396/495 in 307 AB in Augusta and then hit 305/357/553 in 141 AB in Sarasota. He played this year in AA and hit 255/343/453 before breaking his hand. The obvious positive is that he was able to follow an awful 674 OPS Lowell season with a roughly 900 OPS year for both full season teams. He fell back this year against better pitching (and possibly fighting through an injury). He’s never been considered a prospect and even the most optimistic people see his upside as a 4th OF. This is the absolute upside of every hitter on the Lowell roster with the exception of Ramirez and maybe Concepcion.
I assume Barclay, Goss and Brown will go to spring training battling to join Seiber in Sarasota. The lack of AB could really hurt Barclay and Goss – especially Barclay – but there’s nothing standing in their way and the Sox will probably want to push them. None of those players – including Seiber – are more than marginal prospects, but at least they’re not the complete black holes that occupied the A level OF the last couple years. Since Burks, Greenwell and Benzinger hit Boston in 1986/87 the only OF prospects I can think of are Jeff McNeely, Nixon and Coleman. From the Gorman years to the Duke is great years through the Duke is the devil years that is just awful.
Looking at David Chadd’s first draft it’s not going to get better soon. In the first 30 rds Chadd took 5 outfielders none in the first 10 rds. The five selected are: 11th rd Goss, 12th rd Majewski (didn’t sign), 15th rd Cronkhite, 27th rd Armstrong (didn’t sign) and 28th rd Barclay. The Sox also signed 47th rd pick Bianucci. I tried to make the case that Goss might project as a good reserve, but none of these players are going to become good outfield prospects.
Pat Boran and Greg Stone
This is another low odds matched pair. Stone was drafted out of JC in the 10th rd. At age 21 he hit 243/319/270 with a 29/42 BB/K ratio in 267 AB and he also added 14 SB in 19 attempts. He was drafted as a SS, but split his time between 2B and OF. Boran was drafted out of Princeton in the 24th rd. At age 21/22 he hit 262/347/366 with a 23/36 BB/K ratio. He’s a switch hitter and he was only 8 for 14 in SB attempts. He was drafted as a SS, but played all over the infield and got into 7 games in the OF. A small note in Diehard mentioned that the Sox thought he had a chance to make it in CF. From his background (I assume he’s been called “scrappy” and “heady” a thousand times) and poor baserunning he doesn’t seem like a candidate to have the athleticism to switch to CF. That idea seems to fit Stone’s draft status and stat line better. Nevertheless, Boran outplayed Stone by quite a bit. He had a better BA by 20 points, his walk rate was a little higher and he actually had some extra base hits.
If either of these guys is going to get a look as a CF, then it would probably have to be in Augusta next year. I’d bet that both end up playing utility roles in Augusta most of next year. Just in case anybody wants to start a Stone bandwagon I’ll mention that Hillenbrand was a 10th rd pick from a JC as well.
Jeff Ontiveros
Ontiveros was signed as an undrafted FA. As I mentioned at the top Cressend made the majors as an undrafted FA, but it’s a real long shot. I might not have even mentioned him except someone in the forum seemed to have an interest and there was a recent story on him in Diehard. He hit 247/322/379 with a 21/39 BB/K ratio in 227 AB. He’s supposed to be a power hitting 1B.
A brief recap of the Diehard story. Ontiveros was the cleanup hitter on national champion Texas. He set a school record for HR in a season (20) and career (55). He had two good years hitting about .300 with 28 HR to start his career and then was awful – maybe because he was thinking too much about the draft – in his junior year. He bounced back to hit 302 with a lot of HR for a very good team. But still didn’t get drafted. “Eight guys got drafted off our team and I wasn’t one of eight. I didn’t even want to go to practice. I was disappointed and ashamed.” From the story it looks like his season was very streaky – started ice cold, heated up in the middle and then struggled down the stretch. His manager mentioned he was a better defensive 1B than expected (usually due to really low expectations) and has had to work on becoming less pull conscious, but overall a big asset as a middle of the order run producer. The story also had a head shot and he looked a bit “puffy” to be nice. I assume he wasn’t drafted because scouts thought he was an unathletic fat guy with aluminum bat power.
I’d guess that at this point he’s considered just a body that can be used to fill some cracks next year. Best case scenario is that he works his way into a fulltime 1B/DH slot in Augusta and he mashes the ball proving a middle of the order presence on a young team.
Player by player – Pitchers
Smith was a 4th rd pick out of a Cal college. He wasn’t very highly rated by BA coming into the draft. His overall numbers are mediocre: 4.13 ERA, 1.20 WH/IP with a 50/14 K/BB ratio in 56.67 IP. However, his overall numbers muddle together two very distinct seasons. In his first 4 starts he gave up 13 earned runs in 11.67 IP. After that he gave up 13 earned runs in 45 IP for a good 2.60 ERA with very good peripherals: 7 H/9 IP, 1.8 BB/9 IP, 8.8 K/9 IP. In his last 10 starts he gave up 0 ER twice, 1 ER six times, 2 ER once and 5 ER once. He was basically dominant aside from one awful night.
Any explanations for his rough start? Adjusting to pro ball and the wood bat are standard ones though they generally apply more to position players. MIB found a website that lists most abused college pitchers and Smith ranked very highly. It’s possible he was going to through a dead arm period. Smith was one of only three top 10 picks who signed in time to play a lot this summer. In retrospect, it might have been better to give him some extra time off to recover form his college abuse.
It seems pretty reasonable to give him a mulligan for that rough start and too assume his last 10 starts are a better indicator of his talent. I haven’t really seen many scouting reports, but I’d assume his stuff is pretty average – fastball around 90 mph with an OK breaking ball and a changeup that needs work. He should have no trouble jumping to Sarasota next year and unless I’m wrong about his stuff or he takes a big leap forward his upside is probably an innings eating #3/4 starter.
Realistically, what’s the chance that a 4th rd pick from college like Chris Smith will make it? As I’ve mentioned a few times I’ve been doing a lot of research on the draft using James Win Shares. I can tell you exactly how many pitchers like Smith from the 1987-1992 drafts made it to varying degrees. From that it’s easy to get a pretty good handle on Smith’s chances.
To increase the sample pool I grouped all college pitchers from rds 2-5 and put them into different WS categories. The categories and a quick explanation are:
0 – Never earned a WS 1-40 – cups of coffee and fringe, replacement level 41-80 – good relievers and mediocre veteran back of the rotation starters 81-120 – very good relievers and good durable mid-rotation playoff caliber starters
From 1987-1992 144 college pitchers were drafted in rds 2-5. For all the percentages that follow I only use the number that signed – 140.
0 WS – 106 or 76% 1-40 WS – 25 or 18% 41-80 WS – 5 or 4% 81-120 – 4 or 3%
The percentages add to 101% due to rounding, I’m just going to take the extra 1% of the biggest group and call it 75% who never earned a WS.
So, roughly 3 out of every 4 college pitchers picked between the 2nd and 5th rds was a complete bust. Another 18% made the majors, but didn’t make a significant impact. That’s essentially a 93% failure rate.
The next question is how applicable is that 7% success rate from 10-15 years ago? I’ve looked at the next six years – 1993-98 – of drafts and it looks roughly the same. But even if there has been some improvement, the nice thing about starting at such a low level is that even if you assume a huge improvement like a 2-fold increase you would only get a 14% success rate.
I’m pretty comfortable saying that Smith has about a 5% chance to have a significant career.
Brandon Mims
Mims isn’t a prospect. He got bounced from the rotation after a few starts and ended the year with a 9.00 ERA. I mention him to make a couple points. He was a 4th rd pick out of HS in 2000. That puts him in the HS group of the 1987-1992 WS study opposite the Smith college group.
There were 109 HS pitchers picked in the 2nd to 5th rds and 95 signed. All of the percentages are from the 95 who signed.
0 WS – 80 or 84% 1-40 WS – 10 or 11% 41-80 WS – 5 or 5% 81-120 WS – 0 or 0%
The 40 WS or less failure rate of 95% was very similar to the college one. The big difference is that some of the college successes crossed the 80 WS threshold to have very good careers and none of the HS ones did. It’s much too soon to say how the HS picks from 1993-98 will turn out, but it looks like they will be more successful. But again, even if the success rates doubles it still won’t be very high.
That Mims will end up in the 84% who never earned a WS is not much of a surprise at all. That his failure was evident in the NYPL seems to me to be much too soon for a 4th rd pick. Obviously, you can’t expect major league success from a 4th rd HS pitcher, but is it that much to ask for him to make a full season rotation and pitch decently? I don’t think so.
I bet 20 years from now when people look back at Duquette’s farm system – both the perceived good one of the mid-90s and the perceived awful one at the end of his tenure – they’ll find that both were more or less middle of the pack. I think a big part of the reason that the system has been so thin at the end has been too many Mims who fail too quickly. When it comes to rating farm systems having a 4th rd pick fail in AAA is much, much better than having a 4th pick fail in rookie ball. But in the big picture of major league productivity they’re both just failures.
A big part of the reason I was annoyed at the awful starts of so many of Chadd’s 2002 draft picks is that it seems like many of them are heading down the Mimsian path of early failure. Ultimately, that will mean less depth and more pain every time a prospect is dealt for a veteran.
Just a quick note on the draft. The conventional wisdom is that HS pitchers are bigger risks, but also have bigger upsides. What I see in this group of drafts is that the risk – in terms of failing to hit a low 40 WS benchmark – is essentially the same, but that college pitchers have the bigger upside. The difference is even more dramatic looking at the 1st rd picks from these drafts. At about the 4th/5th rd that relationship changes. The two groups continue to show the same risk, but the HS pitchers have much higher upsides.
Pahucki
Pahucki was a 23rd rd college pick and was excellent right out of the gate and earned himself a promotion to Augusta. At age 21 he posted a 1.84 ERA with a 0.89 WH/IP and a 48/8 K/BB ratio in 44 IP. Reportedly throws around 90 mph, but is probably an average stuff, great command guy. These types are never considered good prospects. He’ll have to continually prove himself at every step of the ladder. He got off to a poor start by posting a 4.15 in his limited time in Augusta. I expect he’ll return in 2003 and hopefully play the role of veteran innings eater that Shane Rhodes played this past year.
Mateo and Simon
They make a nice pair since they both spent most of the year in the GCL before getting a quick three start look in the NYPL. I don’t know much of anything about Mateo. He had a great ERA (1.76), but only good peripherals (1.10 WH/IP, 45/11 K/BB ratio in 51 IP) in the GCL. That’s about what he did for Lowell – 1.45 ERA, 0.54 WH/IP, 13/2 K/BB ratio in 18.67 IP. The first potential positive about his stuff will be if he can sneak onto the BA Top 20 of the GCL.
Simon started the year on the shelf and only managed 22 IP in the GCL. His stats were a bit more dominant than Mateo’s – 1.64 ERA, 0.77 WH/IP, 24/5 K/BB ratio. He was wilder in Lowell, but it was a tiny sample – 1.64 ERA, 1.45 WH/IP, 12/6 K/BB ratio in 11 IP.
Simon was the Sox 9th rd pick in the 2001 draft. He was projected to go much higher, but the Sox signed him for 325k, which was about 3rd rd money. Here are some snippets from Sickels and BA:
Graded a C prospect by John Sickels (one of many), STATS 2002 Minor League Scouting Notebook. Selected comments: “lanky, tall and projectable” “throws 89-92 mph already with more velocity likely as he gets older” “throws strikes with his curveball” “long way from being ready.. he has potential”
Best Fastball 2001 Sox draft – “projectable at 6-foot-6 and already throws in the low 90s. - BA 2001 Draft Guide, BA Issue no 0123, 11/25/01
Ranked by BA as the 66th best prospect in June 2001 draft – BA Issue No 0112, 6/24/01.
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I don’t think that Simon will be eligible for the GCL Top 20 from BA due to his low number of innings. We’ll have to wait for their organization lists for a more detailed report. He’ll join Mateo and Josh Thigpen as the top prospects in the Augusta rotation.
Here’s a scouting report from DH3 on Simon:
I am pretty sure Billy Simon started, but I hope not. The starter for Lowell, announced as Simon, was putrid. I sat behind the guys with the radar gun, and he was throwing an 89-90 fastball, with a 86-87 two-seamer, and a rolling 75 mph curveball that the Valley Cats hitters (not the best bunch themselves) were crushing everywhere. Yuk. If that was Billy Simon, I don't see what all the fuss is. He's a poor man's Brian Rose.
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Here’s a scouting report from RoDaddy on Mateo:
Aneudis Mateo was the story, pitching 7 innings of one hit ball. We sat right behind home and with a couple of Spinners with a radar gun on Mateo. He was a consistent 87-90 all night with a decent curve and good control. His mechanics looked pretty good for a tall (6'4), young (19 years old) pitcher.
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MacLane and Priola
Minor league relievers – especially A ball relievers – never make it, but these two were the best so I thought I’d give them a mention. Priola was a 14th rd pick out of college in June 2002. He pitched at 22 and posted a 2.54 ERA, a 0.89 WH/IP and a 33/5 K/BB ratio in 46 IP. He was used as the Lowell closer. MacLane was a 19th rd pick also out of college. He pitched at 22 and posted a 1.54 ERA, a 1.34 WH/IP and a 38/19 K/BB ratio in 41 IP.
Both of these guys will kick around as organizational bullpen guys as long as they’re healthy. I’d expect their arms or stuff will give out in AA.
