Clutch
From SoSH
Contents |
Overview
There has been much discussion in the statistical community about whether "clutch" hitters exist, and whether there is a way to measure clutchness, if it does exist. One of the central problems is that "clutch" is very difficult to define. Some common definitions include:
- Performance in late innings in close games
- Same, but with RISP
While it is difficult to determine if clutch players exist, there is little debate about whether clutch performances exist. Clearly, when a batter hits a grand slam when down by three runs in the ninth inning with two outs, the hit is clutch. The problem is that the same batter, over time, will also make outs in the same situation, reducing their clutchness.
Literature
According to a baseball prospectus article, a study by Ron Johnson that covered a 15-year period found that just two players had clutch ability (within statistical significance): Paul Molitor and Tony Fernandez.
An article by Nate Silver on ESPN, from his book called "Baseball Between the Numbers," reviews whether David Ortiz is really clutch (yes, but only in 2000 and 2005). Silver brings up some interesting points regarding clutchness:
- With the bases empty, a walk is every bit as good as a single. This is not the case with runners on base.
- In a tie game in the bottom of the ninth with a runner on third base, a single is every bit as good as a home run.
- If the home team is batting in the bottom of the ninth down by two runs with nobody on, a walk is virtually as good as a home run.
- With a runner on first base and less than two outs, a strikeout is preferable to a groundout.
These points show that what baseball fans consider exciting (e.g., the home run) does not always produce a better outcome than less exciting plays such as a walk.
