Hughes2.50

From SoSH

Hughes2.50 Is a legendary poster on the Yankee message forum NYYFans. Hughes2.50 continually dazzles and stupefies with his lengthy, informative dissertations on statistical matters and predictions, especially as it concerns minor league pitching prospects in the Yankee system.

Overall Career

• Update

Moment in the Sun

Hughes2.50's greatest accomplishment is the development of his own, highly accurate minor league pitching projections. These projections take existing minor league data and use it to project out the future career of a minor league pitcher's MLB career. On May 9th, 2007, Hughes2.50 gave us a glimpse of the incredibly accuracy and thoroughness of his projection system in the topic he started title "What a power rotation could mean for the Yankees the rest of the way." In this profound piece of statistical work, Hughes2.50 elocutes on the future dominance assured by the June-September 2007 New York Yankees starting pitcher and pitching staff in general. The words of the man himself follow:

"Well if all goes as planned, beginning in early June the Yankees will have a rotation of Wang, Pettite, Mussina, Clemens and Hughes. What can we expect from that rotation? I'll post some projections (full year projections for the staff) and discuss briefly what we can expect when the full rotation is up and running out there on regular rest.

(season projection)

Wang 30GS, 195IP, 3.65ERA, 121ERA+, 16-6W-L

Pettite 32GS, 200IP, 3.85ERA, 114ERA+, 15-7W-L

Mussina 30GS, 190IP, 3.70ERA, 119ERA+, 15-6W-L

Clemens 22GS, 132IP, 3.21ERA, 137ERA+, 12-4W-L

Hughes 22GS, 131IP, 2.82ERA, 156ERA+, 12-3W-L

(last 2/3rds of the season June-Sept

Wang 22GS, 143IP, 3.65ERA, 121ERA+, 11-4W-L

Pettite 22GS, 138IP, 3.85ERA, 114ERA+, 10-5W-L

Mussina 22GS, 139IP, 3.70ERA, 119ERA+, 11-4W-L

Clemens 22GS, 132IP, 3.21ERA, 137ERA+, 12-4W-L

Hughes 20GS, 120IP, 2.55ERA, 173ERA+, 11-2W-L

The cumulative ERA+ of the starting staff over the last 2/3rds of the season would be something like 132, and I estimate the whole staff including the bullpen would average about 129 ERA+. With an estimated CR+ for the whole team of 128, the estimated winning percentage over the last 2/3rds of the season would be about 73%, or 79-29. If so, the Yankees ought to have upwards of 108 or so wins (assuming a 60% winning percentage between now and the time that both Hughes and Clemens join, Wang, Mussina and Pettite.

This team with its very strong offense, and power pitching rotation, is the first team that is capable of playing on the level of the 1998 Yankees, imo." [1]

Hughes2.50 has been forced, for obvious intellectual property reasons, to keep much of the complex mathematical computations to himself, and is highly concerned about laymen or those with a "an awareness of, and implementation of rigourous safeguards to stay non-biased. An often overlooked external bias is the one where social pressures from others can compromise a systematic, non-biased approach. The key is that one remains true to a system that treats all that is evaluatd in a rigorous, standardized way." [2] obtaining his projection formula and using it for malevolent purposes; say to create some sort of uber-projection which would destroy all known forms of statistical analysis forever.

Hughes2.50 has stated that he may be willing at some future time to open up his methodolgy to peer review, but only to the top mathematical and statistical minds of our times. "If you will PM me your academic credentials, we can start to talk about peer review status of methodology." [3]. Hughes 2.50 is obviously worried about the far-reaching implications his highly tunes prediction system could have on the game of baseball.

External Links

• NYYFans.com