Marks the rare (only?) occasion where Fangraphs crowdsourcing overestimated the value of a large dollar contract.Cross Zimmerman off the list. http://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/mlb/487174/heyman-zimmermann-tigers-agree-to-contract
Marks the rare (only?) occasion where Fangraphs crowdsourcing overestimated the value of a large dollar contract.Cross Zimmerman off the list. http://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/mlb/487174/heyman-zimmermann-tigers-agree-to-contract
We looked at Zimmermann's stuff at the .com to see what the Tigers got with all that cash.Zimmerman fastball velocity dropped significantly last year. I consider this a bullet dodged.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Jordan Zimmermann Pitches clocked 95.0 MPH/faster 2012 236 2013 272 2014 159 2015 31 94.0/faster 2012 883 2013 987 2014 928 2015 296</p>— Mark Simon (@msimonespn) <a href="">November 29, 2015</a></blockquote>
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Thank you. It's been fixed.The article states the deal is 5/210 when it is 5/110 unless I am hallucinating from all the turkey this weekend.
Given the inflation in the free-agent market and the fact that Zimmermann signed for only five years instead of the six both Cain and Hamels received, one would have expected a larger average annual value — perhaps closer to $25 million per season.Price has generally been about 40 percent more valuable than Zimmermann in terms of wins above replacement over the last five years, and he's also entering his age-30 season. Doing the basic math, that would put the left-hander in a place to earn around $31 million per season. Don’t expect the preeminent free-agent starter — and one without the health risks or recent decline shown by Zimmermann — to settle for five years, either. Price still remains likely to get seven years, putting his estimated contract value around $220 million overall.I find it hard to believe that Price will require double the guaranteed money that Zimmermann received. He may very well get it but it wouldn't make a whole lot of sense to me. Price is better, no doubt. But Zimmermann has been a very solid pitcher over the last few years. Even last year in his "down" year his numbers were pretty consistent with his career marks, except for his HR/FB rate, which could certainly be flukey. And he's a year younger than Price.
Maybe the conclusion will be that Price deserves $200m+ and that Zimmermann will end up being a good bargain. If Boston signed Zimmermann to that deal I'd be pretty happy.
At this point, wouldn't it make more sense to DFA Hanley and have him accept an assignment in Pawtucket before trading him? Wouldn't that at least get his salary out of the luxury tax count?Greinke
Cueto
Trade for a solid #3 LHP
Dump Hanley and/or Panda for a bag of balls if possible. Let the kids swing the bats.
/offseason
That maneuver would be screaming for MLBPA to file a grievance, and for free agents to avoid Boston like the plague. It's one thing when you send down a guy with limited service time like Allen Craig, who proved over the course of two seasons he could no longer hit at a big league level. Hanley's only "sin" to this point in his Red Sox tenure is being injured (and being a poor defensive LF). When he's healthy, he can still rake.At this point, wouldn't it make more sense to DFA Hanley and have him accept an assignment in Pawtucket before trading him? Wouldn't that at least get his salary out of the luxury tax count?
I'm certain you can't use the Craig loophole with Hanley. That was a very special case involving Craig's limited MLB service time + options available.At this point, wouldn't it make more sense to DFA Hanley and have him accept an assignment in Pawtucket before trading him? Wouldn't that at least get his salary out of the luxury tax count?
Thank you for clarifying. I guess wishful thinking on my part.I'm certain you can't use the Craig loophole with Hanley. That was a very special case involving Craig's limited MLB service time + options available.
If they DFA him they will be on the hook for the whole salary - both in real terms and for the LT.
So .. no .. bad idea.
“@jcrasnick: It’s believed Greinke is looking for a $30M annual payout. He’s 32, so length of the deal will be an issue.”
Blarg. Pick your poison or maybe we can't get either of these guys to leave the National League. I definitely prefer 5/150 for Greinke than 6/150 for Cueto, who seems easily the most likely to be a total bust.I assumed this would be the case, and that the contract will probably be for 5 years. So 5/150-ish for Greinke vs. 7/210+ for Price. Pick your poison, but it's the cost of doing business at the high end of the free agent SP market.
They should probably sign Jason Heyward, Alex Gordon, Ben Zobrist, and trade Allen Craig while they're at it. Why not?Greinke
Cueto
Trade for a solid #3 LHP
Dump Hanley and/or Panda for a bag of balls if possible. Let the kids swing the bats.
/offseason
And, now without the snark, why don't you consider Wade Miley a solid #3 LHP? Isn't he, like, the definition of a solid #3 LHP in today's American League?Trade for a solid #3 LHP
/offseason
Apparently the AL East is a 12-team mixed fanball league where you can't possibly win unless you have a Lake Wobegon roster where everybody is above average. I think some posters need to take a look at the other rotations in the division, as currently constituted. The only one that's clearly better than ours is the Yankees', and the Yankee lineup looks pretty weak, with the only guy projected by Steamer at >3 WAR being McCann.They should probably sign Jason Heyward, Alex Gordon, Ben Zobrist, and trade Allen Craig while they're at it. Why not?
I think of Miley as more of a quality #4, but certainly between him and Rodriguez there's a pretty good chance one of them submits what any reasonable person would call a "solid #3 LHP" season.And, now without the snark, why don't you consider Wade Miley a solid #3 LHP? Isn't he, like, the definition of a solid #3 LHP in today's American League?
I would feel pretty much completely the opposite to this.Blarg. Pick your poison or maybe we can't get either of these guys to leave the National League. I definitely prefer 5/150 for Greinke than 6/150 for Cueto, who seems easily the most likely to be a total bust.
Jim Bowden says he hears Boston won't let Price get away and projects deal of 7/213.5Can someone who can see what that says fill me in?
Now who's bigger than the game!Jim Bowden says he hears Boston won't let Price get away and projects deal of 7/213.5
Now who's bigger than the game!
Seriously. Cueto actually wants to pitch for the Boston Red Sox. Sign him and use the extra ~$75MM saved to, you know, improve the team in other ways as needed over time. Greinke admitted he will pitch anywhere. High-bid and use the extra ~$50MM saved to, you know, improve the team in other ways as needed over time.
I hate when the Sox fixate on one "most bestest" option. Like with Teixeira, this situation just doesn't feel like it will end well.
But this time, at least, there are other options almost as good, just as freely available for considerably less money, and within a reasonable probability factor to be almost as good, just as good, or perhaps even better. Now that those options are down to three, even though the Sox might be able to get Price, they certainly shouldn't let themselves be without a chair when the music stops.
Remember that old Theo line about how health is the new frontier of Sabermetrics? I wonder if we're targeting Price because his control and the simplicity of his mechanics suggests better than average odds of staying healthy. Here's one report raving about his mechanics:Now who's bigger than the game!
Seriously. Cueto actually wants to pitch for the Boston Red Sox. Sign him and use the extra ~$75MM saved to, you know, improve the team in other ways as needed over time. Greinke admitted he will pitch anywhere. High-bid and use the extra ~$50MM saved to, you know, improve the team in other ways as needed over time.
I hate when the Sox fixate on one "most bestest" option. Like with Teixeira, this situation just doesn't feel like it will end well.
But this time, at least, there are other options almost as good, just as freely available for considerably less money, and within a reasonable probability factor to be almost as good, just as good, or perhaps even better. Now that those options are down to three, even though the Sox might be able to get Price, they certainly shouldn't let themselves be without a chair when the music stops.
This is why I'd prefer to spend significantly more for Price than, say, Cueto.Price has always been a model of consistency with his mechanics. Luckily for him, he had the pleasure of pitching during his college days for a well-regarded, progressive pitching school in Vanderbilt. After his college days were done, he moved onto another progressive organization, the Tampa Bay Rays.
He takes a rather simplistic approach to his movement patterns. One of the first things people often point out about Price is his lack of a normal full windup. I love seeing this! Over the years, I’ve heard endless arguments about big leg lifts being attached to velocity in pitchers. A common phrase I hear from pitching coaches I speak with is “it worked for Nolan Ryan.” Unfortunately this is typical correlation behavior in this sport. The truth is, pitchers can throw with the same velocity whether throwing from the stretch, slide step, or using a massive leg lift. In the end, the leg lift is a timing mechanism, so it’s all about personal feel for an individual pitcher.
When Price was a member of the Tampa Bay Rays, he was part of an organization that clearly focused on posture and simplicity with their pitchers. He fit the mold with his lack of wind up and upright posture. With the upright posture and paltry amount of trunk tilt, Price was able to easily repeat his mechanics for years, contributing to his elite status as the Rays staff ace.
Can somebody give a quick & dirty explanation (or point me to one) of what's alarming in that video? I know it's common wisdom that Cueto's mechanics are $#@%ed, so I'm sure it's true, but for those of us for whom the mechanical side of pitching is a black art, a walk-through would be helpful.This is why I'd prefer to spend significantly more for Price than, say, Cueto.
I may be way off here but I don't know if it's an injury risk so much as there are more moving parts/require more flexibility than Price's very simple motion. So as you get older and lose more dexterity/flexibility repeating his mechanics will be harder.Can somebody give a quick & dirty explanation (or point me to one) of what's alarming in that video? I know it's common wisdom that Cueto's mechanics are $#@%ed, so I'm sure it's true, but for those of us for whom the mechanical side of pitching is a black art, a walk-through would be helpful.
NMCan somebody give a quick & dirty explanation (or point me to one) of what's alarming in that video? I know it's common wisdom that Cueto's mechanics are $#@%ed, so I'm sure it's true, but for those of us for whom the mechanical side of pitching is a black art, a walk-through would be helpful.
I definitely don't know enough to know anything but my experience as a fan over the past 20+ years is that the more boring the delivery, the better when it comes to consistency and health.Can somebody give a quick & dirty explanation (or point me to one) of what's alarming in that video? I know it's common wisdom that Cueto's mechanics are $#@%ed, so I'm sure it's true, but for those of us for whom the mechanical side of pitching is a black art, a walk-through would be helpful.
I believe you're right that a simple delivery improves consistency, because it facilitates the repeatability of mechanics and muscle memory of the release point. But my guess is that's the reason why fewer "quirky" delivery guys make the majors, though, rather than a commentary about the longevity of the few like Cueto or Tiant who go on to achieve elite status that way.I definitely don't know enough to know anything but my experience as a fan over the past 20+ years is that the more boring the delivery, the better when it comes to consistency and health.
Agree with some of the others on the Teixeira'like feeling. I'm also not buying in to the reality value behind that # being thrown out. Taking the Scherzer contract and then simply adding an extra $3.5m kicker in Boston's favor isn't how this is going to play out. If we end up with Price it's probably going to be a lot more painful then that.Jim Bowden says he hears Boston won't let Price get away and projects deal of 7/213.5
It's hilarious how many people think Buchholz's option should have been turned down/ will be turned down.Ok, I've decided I want Price, because after Buch gets hurt again and we decline his 2017 option (or trade him for peanuts to Oakland), and after Kelly gets moved permanently to the pen, we'll have Price, Edro, Miley, Owens and Johnson in the rotation. Have the Sox ever had a rotation of 5 LHers?? That'd be fun. Especially at Fenway.
In a market where Price will probably get 30 million and Rick Porcello gets 20 would someone like to explain why declining Buchholz option at 13 makes sense? When he's healthy he's a legit #2. He would make more than that on the market despite the injury issues. Owens and Johnson will have their turn as no teams really get through a season untouched by injuries but why force it?Ok, I've decided I want Price, because after Buch gets hurt again and we decline his 2017 option (or trade him for peanuts to Oakland), and after Kelly gets moved permanently to the pen, we'll have Price, Edro, Miley, Owens and Johnson in the rotation. Have the Sox ever had a rotation of 5 LHers?? That'd be fun. Especially at Fenway.
This notion that it's Price or bust has really become too much. And denotes a lack of imagination that scares me a little bit with this team right now. What if you don't get him, then what? And what's the limit? $250m? $300m? Is there a limit? Did Price guarantee winning for Detroit, Toronto, Tampa?Bowden on WEEI: "Price is the guy DD wants. Fallback option is Cueto as Greinke is staying out west. He pays star players everywhere he's been and everywhere he's been he's had a #1 starter. Has a good relationship with Price's agent but it's going to cost more than Scherzer. I think they'll pull it off but they'll have stiff competition. I think he'll get in range of 7/213 but may be higher. Being LHP and age, it's a worthwhile gamble. He consistently goes 200 IP, wins in AL East, and is left handed. Competition is LAD if Greinke leaves, Giants want ZG or Price, and what I understand that the Cubs are in on Price but want to keep it low-key. The wild card is St. Louis with the question marks in their rotation. If I know one thing about DD, he closes deals. He has the backing of JWH and good relationships with Price and his agent. This won't be something they do again but they view Price as their ticket to get back to the playoffs. Not a lot of opportunities to get aces in trade or draft. If they want to win now, I don't know any other way.