Super Bowls have been identified by Roman Numerals since almost forever and I'm not stopping now.
Yeah, that can't be done.I may have miscast a vote in the last few minutes.
I think it will be Carolina by 14 to 20.
If a vote for Denver by that margin just came in, please change it. Thanks.
I would imagine Norman will be on DT since Norman does not play the slot at all and Sanders can be lined up in the slot pretty easy. Sanders will probably play a big key in DEN moving the ball. CAR is down two CB so if Sanders can exploit those matchups Manning may have some success.Carolina also has Norman to negate Sanders who is Manning's #1 target. Denver won't be able to run much against them either. I think their defense is good enough to make it a game but it will be going up against a much more balanced offense.
With the Pats making it and winning it all next year.I hope this one plays out exactly like 48 did....
I am not sure what those numbers tell us except that the teams that made the Superbowl after going 15-1 ran into a team peaking at the right time and/or teams that won their conference championship by a lot probably faced a far inferior team than their next opponent.Some sobering stats from Cousin Sal on the Bill Simmons podcast:
-- Teams that are 15-1 are 2-4 in the Superbowl
-- Teams that win their conference title games by 30+ are 2-5 in the Superbowl (there may be overlap with the above)
Superbowl 48 is what most people will compare this matchup to, and I think that's apt. But the Broncos are a lot worse (offensively) than they were two years ago. I think a comparison to the Ravens-Giants in Superbowl 35 might be more accurate. Hard to believe that the Ravens were only favored by three. I felt like there was never going to be a contest.
Yes, Manning will have a short field a few times after Denver picks Cam. Maybe a straight up pick-6, too.Are those 26 points including a special teams / defensive TD? Couple of turnovers leading to short fields? Because there's no way in hell this Broncos offense scores 26 on Carolina without some major assistance.
So basically similar to the AFCCG? 1 legit scoring drive, a defensive TD or turnover-aided TD, and a bunch of 40-50 yard FGs. Not out of the realm of possibility. I think Cam has some brain farts in him.Yes, Manning will have a short field a few times after Denver picks Cam. Maybe a straight up pick-6, too.
Two TDs, 4 FGs.
Denver had devastating injuries to its Defense in SB48. Devastating. Denver is a very very different team this year.
This year may be like SB 38 but not in the way most think. It will be where the high flying offense gets beat on by the top defense.
Look at this historic numbers on SB teams coming in with either a #1 Offense (CAR) or a #1 Defense (DEN):
#1 Ranked Offense record: 10-12
#1 Ranked Defense record: 9-4
Defense wins championships.
Denver 26
Carolina 20
(Bold prediction bolded - no clue why I can't edit that out)
Here's the thing, though: Carolina's D didn't face a very tough slate of offenses this year.When was the last time a Super Bowl was a match up between two defenses this good? The Ravens D got hot in the 2012 playoffs but were wholly mediocre that season. I don't remember the Cardinals defense being that good when they matched up against Pittsburgh's #1 unit in 2008. This will sound wrong, but the 2001 Rams had the 3rd best defense by DVOA in the league, while the '01 Pats came in at 19th (at least according to this page: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2004/2001-dvoa-ratings-and-commentary). My football memory (in terms of watching the games) really only goes back to the late 90's, and I can't remember two units playing this well running into each other.
And yea, defense wins championships, and both these teams have great defenses. I'll take the team that complements their D with a great offense as well.
FO actually has Denver with the #1 D and Carolina #2, even including opponent adjustments. That doesn't include the playoff performances by either. The two defenses are both excellent.Here's the thing, though: Carolina's D didn't face a very tough slate of offenses this year.
Check out Football Outsiders:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef
Denver has the #1 Defense and faced the 4th toughest schedule.
Carolina has the #5 Defense but faced the 26th toughest schedule.
Denver's current Offense is probably right in line with that 26th place spot, so I do not expect to see it dominate, but I do think they will do enough to let Denver's top Defense get things done.
I'm looking at the weighted D column.FO actually has Denver with the #1 D and Carolina #2, even including opponent adjustments. That doesn't include the playoff performances by either. The two defenses are both excellent.
Patriots and Eagles had the tied for #2 scoring defense in the league (260 points allowed, behind Pittsburgh at 251).When was the last time a Super Bowl was a match up between two defenses this good?
No offense, but this seems like a gross oversimplification and a lot of wish casting. It's easy to focus on mixing up your coverages and rushes when you're facing a team like the Patriots, who present absolutely no threats in the running game. It's another thing entirely when you're facing a team that runs the ball as effectively as Carolina, and has a QB like Newton who needs to accounted for as a potential runner on just about every down.Adding to my confidence in Denver's D for this game: Just like Wade Phillips managed to do yesterday, I think they will disguise and mix up their coverages and rushes and as a result they will give Cam headaches trying to make reads. They won't knock him down anywhere near as much as they did to Brady (Carolina has a much better O-Line and running game so sacks will be a smaller part of the strategy) but they will stop the run by and large (a strong suit for Denver) and the CBs will stick with the CAR receivers on those go routes taking those away for the most part. They don't thrive on the short passing attack like NE so flooding the flat with bodies won't be as key for Denver. Cam holds the ball a long time and while he will surely get some nice runs in, he will also force it into tight coverage some, run into a few big hits and maybe take a coverage sack or two.
It will not look like the AFCCG, but I'm very confident that they will give Cam tougher reads than he is used to.
I am interested in your journey. If I recall right, you were not expecting much from Denver in the post-season.BTW, my confidence in Denver's D is in no way meant to imply that I think Carolina is not a great team. They are. This will be the hardest game of the year for Denver (facing NE may have been a tougher opponent, but at least that was at home).
OK, but a) Weighted DVOA isn't a better predictor than regular, b) you also quoted Strength of Schedule, which is a full-season stat, and c) DVOA already includes schedule adjustments.I'm looking at the weighted D column.
It's safe to say neither offense has faced a defense as good as what they'll be going up against in the Super Bowl. Carolina just beat the Seahawks (#4 in DVOA) and Cardinals (#3) while the best Denver has faced is KC (#6).Carolina's schedule has them ranked as facing the 32nd toughest defenses. Last place. That offense has seen nothing like what Denver is bringing on D.
Yes I've felt all along that Denver wouldn't make it beyond the first of second week of the playoffs.I am interested in your journey. If I recall right, you were not expecting much from Denver in the post-season.
Why the optimism on nuetral turf against a one-loss team with demonstrably fewer problems than pitts and ne? And the one thing they are particularly susceptible to your guys cannot do particularly well.
The last two games show that Phillips is perfectly willing to change things up and move outside of his preferred standard looks. Against Pitt they primarily employed a zone coverage to keep the speedy Pitt WRs from getting behind the secondary. That was not a strong suit of Denver's D all season and not an approach used often at all. It worked. Then last Sunday he threw a completely new look at NE. They now have 2 weeks to scheme to stop the Panthers. I expect to see something unexpected. Denver's D is pushing all the right buttons of late.It's also worth mentioning that cooking up complicated schemes is not what Wade Phillips is typically known for. He's generally a KISS method guy who wins on solid execution and well timed play calls. What he did Sunday was brilliant, but atypical. Which is probably why it caught the Patriots so off guard.
Taking nothing away from their tremendous game plan and execution in the AFCC, I thought the Denver D was not very impressive in the divisional in which they allowed 400 yards of offense to a Steeler team without Brown, Bell, Williams and with a limited Ben. Denver was a 4th-string RB fumble away from being eliminated.The play of the Denver defense over the last stretch has me believing that they are peaking in that phase of the game and that it will give them a serious shot to win the SB. What have you done for me lately? A lot.