Red Sox acquire Drew Pomeranz for Anderson Espinoza
- Thread starter johnnywayback
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When do we get a thread so we can talk this trade with some rationality? Like, a couple days so everyone can cool down? I honestly forget what happened with the last big trade. I have nuanced stuff to say about this trade but I don't want to have fiery death wished upon me.
Again, Espinoza wasn't the Red Sox #4 pitching prospect.
He was the #4 pitching prospect in all MLB.
Just because the Sox haven't had a pitcher to compare him to in recent memory, doesn't make the comparisons apt.
Dude. A 6'0" 160 lb 18 year old kid who is posting average numbers in A ball for a cost controlled All-Star? Seriously?
Is this the bit I whine to the mods?
HEY WAIT EVERYONE, THIS GUY HAS NUANCED STUFF TO SAY.
Go on, say your nuanced stuff.
We're all ears.
Henry Owens was considered by some to be one of the top LHP prospects a year ago.
http://m.mlb.com/news/article/106938006/2015-prospect-watch-top-10-left-handed-pitchers/
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Thanks for proving my point! You have even less to say, apparently.
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This is a fair point. All I can say is A) this looks like the biggest pitching chip feasibly available; B) the package is only one player. If this had Sam Travis and a couple others along with it this thread would be more negative.
I understand why people love prospects. They are 100% potential and they have plenty of time to fix whatever faults they might have. Plus, there's something insanely cool about watching a Betts, Xander, or JBJ grow up into productive players.
For that reason, my immediate reaction was to dislike the trade.
But I appreciate SOSH for really looking into the trade. While we gave up a lot, hopefully we got a lot back. And the best thing is that this isn't the typical deadline deal where you give up a prospect to get someone like Scott Feldman back. Pomerantz was mentioned in the same breath as Chris Sale when they were drafted. (P.S. that was quite a draft with Sale, Harper, Harvey, Machado, and Syndergaard just in the first round). Hopefully, Pomerantz can add his name to that list.
For that reason, my immediate reaction was to dislike the trade.
But I appreciate SOSH for really looking into the trade. While we gave up a lot, hopefully we got a lot back. And the best thing is that this isn't the typical deadline deal where you give up a prospect to get someone like Scott Feldman back. Pomerantz was mentioned in the same breath as Chris Sale when they were drafted. (P.S. that was quite a draft with Sale, Harper, Harvey, Machado, and Syndergaard just in the first round). Hopefully, Pomerantz can add his name to that list.
Carl Pavano was rated as the #1 pitching prospect when he was moved for Pedro by some publications like Sickels. BA had him at #4 behind Kerry Wood, Matt White and Kris Benson.
The thing is, we have 2 groups arguing for and against this trade and it's bringing out a ton of hyperbole.
The Red Sox gave up a ton to get Pomeranz. Espinoza is literally the highest ranking SP prospect the Red Sox have had since prospect publications came out. He's super young for his league, he has a tremendous delivery, and his stuff is plus all around. He's a great prospect.
But this is a trade that was necessitated through various variables. The Red Sox have been HORRIBLE in developing starting pitching the last 6-7 years. Horrible. They have zero internal options in AAA/AA that are even viable. There are huge SP gaps in the system. So, they took the youngest and furthest (and best) starting pitching prospect to more or less "buy time". They had to take their medicine. And the remedy wasn't free agency in 2017 because it sucks.
They needed viable, big league, starting pitching and they needed it for now and the near future. Someone has to make these starts and...
They got a young, cost controlled, high pedigree starter who has been absolutely great this year with the added narrative that he's added a new pitch.
This deal makes sense for both teams. It's not a slam dunk, but you can't have slam dunks when your development system puts your back against the wall and literally every other internal SP option flames out.
I made a post a while back in in the MLB game threads about what kind of poor luck/run support Pomeranz had been getting. I think it was at the same time Cueto was getting basically no run support again in a game. I wonder if folks would feel differently if Pomeranz had a record of like 12-4 instead of 8-7, because they haven't looked deeper into the numbers.
He's taken the losses in games where the Padres lost 3-0, 1-0, 2-1, and 4-2. That's 4 starts in which he pitched 24 innings, gave up a combined total of 8 earned runs (24/7 k/bb rate in those games) and went 0-4. If you flip those games around, and he wins them instead of getting a toal of 3 runs from his offense, he's 12-4 on the season. He also took a no-decision in another 1-0 loss in which he went 7 innings and gave up 2 hits. Now, we're up to 13-4. On the flipside, he's also won games by scores of 2-0, 1-0, 4-0, 3-0, 6-0 and 2-1. The guy has been in one pitcher's duel after another all season long. Put him on the Sox with those numbers and this offense, and the guy would be well on his way to 20+ wins. I'm sure his "run support" numbers are probably skewed a bit by his first game of the year where the Padres won 16-3, and his second win was 8-2, but if you remove those two games from the numbers, the Padres have scored a total of 36 runs in his other 15 starts.
This is what I'm looking forward to seeing. I think buyers are about to get bent over and fleeced at the trade deadline trying to get anything resembling a decent starting pitcher. Folks are going to look back at this trade and say "How the hell did the Sox get Pomeranz for one, albeit one great, prospect." I think DD making this move a couple weeks before the deadline was brilliant.
Nah, the worst thing is the shitty posters on the Main Board. Rip's post made me laugh (of course, I'm a sick bastard).
I have reservations about the trade. Cost-controlled starting pitching is so valuable that I think you can argue that you never should trade away a blue-chip pitching prospect. At the end of the day, however, the starting pitching is atrocious, and with the implosion of Henry Owens this season, there's no help on the horizon. DD had to do something-- the Red Sox' business model won't sustain years of mediocrity while pitching talent in the low minors gradually works its way to The Show.
If Espinoza is an above-average SP for four of his six pre-FA years, his positive value will be substantially greater than Sandoval's negative value. Pomeranz obviously can't match that positive value in his 2+ remaining pre-FA years, unless we're going to pretend BABIP doesn't exist and that he's a mid-2s (ERA) guy rather than a low-mid 3s guy. For that matter, Benintendi and Devers aren't likely to generate that kind of positive value during their pre-FA years. The only reason to trade Espinoza instead of one of those guys is because there's an excellent chance he'll amount to nothing.
Fundamentally, DD is betting against Espinoza, and I'm ok with that. I'd feel a little better about the deal if I thought DD would still be running the show 5-6 years from now, when Espinoza might be a stellar, cost-controlled SP.
Just some simple stats for anyone who winces when looking at his career numbers:
w/ COL - 136.2 IP, 5.20 ERA, 89 ERA+, 4.78 FIP, 115 K, 70 BB, 18 HR
since COL - 257 IP, 2.84 ERA, 137 ERA+, 3.48 FIP, 261 K, 98 BB, 23 HR
He's a former stud prospect who got shipped to the Colorado pitcher graveyard who has done nothing but improve since he escaped, to the point now where he's fulfilling all his prospect promise.
Those calling him a #3 or #4 as if that's his ceiling are severely underrating him. He's:
- 13th in fWAR (tied with Max Scherzer)
- 3rd in ERA (tied with Johnny Cueto)
- 6th in ERA- (tied with Strasburg)
- 9th in FIP (just behind Arrietta)
- 2nd in line drive %
Those aren't NL ranks either, those are MLB ranks.
You can question if he'll have the stamina to hold up deep into the season, if his BABIP might regress (not much based on recent history combined with good soft/hard hit % and low line drive %), those are fair. But make no mistake that his ceiling is extremely high, because he's already pitching at it.
w/ COL - 136.2 IP, 5.20 ERA, 89 ERA+, 4.78 FIP, 115 K, 70 BB, 18 HR
since COL - 257 IP, 2.84 ERA, 137 ERA+, 3.48 FIP, 261 K, 98 BB, 23 HR
He's a former stud prospect who got shipped to the Colorado pitcher graveyard who has done nothing but improve since he escaped, to the point now where he's fulfilling all his prospect promise.
Those calling him a #3 or #4 as if that's his ceiling are severely underrating him. He's:
- 13th in fWAR (tied with Max Scherzer)
- 3rd in ERA (tied with Johnny Cueto)
- 6th in ERA- (tied with Strasburg)
- 9th in FIP (just behind Arrietta)
- 2nd in line drive %
Those aren't NL ranks either, those are MLB ranks.
You can question if he'll have the stamina to hold up deep into the season, if his BABIP might regress (not much based on recent history combined with good soft/hard hit % and low line drive %), those are fair. But make no mistake that his ceiling is extremely high, because he's already pitching at it.
I wouldn't say Kopech emerged...I mean sure he hit 105 mph. But he's got a long way to go to get to Espinoza's level.
Thanks for this. This is what I was trying to say about 10 pages back. The guy was the #5 pick out of the draft, and went to the place where pitching dies. Since literally the minute he left Colorado, he's been on an upward trajectory that coincides nicely with a guy with his innate talent. He's 27 and he's peaking. I do not believe for a second this season is some kind of outlier that people should ignore.
Yeah, Espinoza has the chance to be great, but the Red Sox have the chance to win NOW. I can't believe folks would really rather give up a shot at winning a championship now, so they can keep a lottery ticket in their pocket for 4-5 years down the road. The Red Sox offense is legitimate World Series caliber, if the bullpen gets healthy and with the addition of Ziegler, is as well. That leaves the starting pitching, which has been terrifying to watch all year. IMO, a starting rotation of Price, Wright and Pomeranz with this offense, going into the playoffs, is about as solid as we could have hoped for coming out of the trade deadline. I think the addition of Pomeranz not only helps us get to the playoffs, it makes the Sox exponentially better in the playoffs if everyone stays healthy.
1997 isn't exactly recent memory.
Sorry, old dude.
And Espinoza is three years younger than Pavano was then.
And Drew Pomeranz isn't Pedro Martinez.
OT but when did they change the spelling of "have" to "of?" I only ask because I see it everywhere and am really starting to think I missed a memo. Or is it just too much work to type/swipe two extra letters when the two words sound remotely similar with the right (wrong) diction? I'm glad I never parlayed my English degree into a teaching job, because I don't think I could resist the temptation to give Fs to everyone who makes that mistake.
Back on-topic: when is the last time an All-Star pitcher having a career year was traded for a single minor league prospect, however highly-regarded, who isn't going to sniff the Majors for several more years? DDski should get some credit for that. I mean, how many clubs have top pitching prospects (or any other position) who flame out long before they make their ML debut? Espinoza might be great or he might wind up like that kid from the movie Sugar, a film endorsed by Pedro that was mostly eh at the end of the day. He's one arm injury away from being an also-ran.
Back on-topic: when is the last time an All-Star pitcher having a career year was traded for a single minor league prospect, however highly-regarded, who isn't going to sniff the Majors for several more years? DDski should get some credit for that. I mean, how many clubs have top pitching prospects (or any other position) who flame out long before they make their ML debut? Espinoza might be great or he might wind up like that kid from the movie Sugar, a film endorsed by Pedro that was mostly eh at the end of the day. He's one arm injury away from being an also-ran.
I don't think that a realistic median outcome for any pitching prospect is "one of best starters in MLB and make All-Star team"...within a standard deviation, maybe. Maybe.
It's called an example. Espinoza being three years younger than Pavano at that point is only three more years of the chance he doesn't reach his peak potential. He's a LONG way off. I'd have a lot more apprehension about trading a potential future ace if he were 21-22 and dominating AA, but at 18, with mixed results in low-A, and needing years of polish and injury avoidance, I'm okay with it. Pomeranz has a ton of pedigree himself, and has been a legitimately good MLB pitcher since escaping Colorado. Legitimately good MLB pitchers are exactly what this team needs right now, not lottery tickets.
I know it probably wasn't an option but I would have much rather have seen the Sox sell high on Kopech (who seems just a good a shot to bust as Espinoza).
I was inartfully agreeing with you.
Edit: insert "Seriously." at the beginning of my post, and that's what I was trying to convey.
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I think the apprehension in trading a stud prospect like Espinoza comes from the fact that the Sox trotted out multiple pitchers (Clay, Joe K, ERod, etc.) and none of those jokers could even closely approximate "good MLB pitchers" which is inexcusable.
Is there any question of whether DD makes this trade if he and the organization had done a better job building a staff for this year? There is none. He never makes this trade under those circumstances. What he gave up is just way too valuable.
It's not like he got totally fleeced. If you squint you can argue that this deal is fine - particularly if you consider the situation (their pitching staff blows there is nobody in the high minors and there's nobody on the FA market). But they only made this deal because Cherrington and DD screwed the pooch and they didn't want to waste an outstanding offensive team with a dumpster fire of a pitching staff. At least, not with their demanding fanbase and potential to lose their jobs. So they mortgaged the future. Yay for incompetence leading to short sighted moves. I miss Theo.
It's not like he got totally fleeced. If you squint you can argue that this deal is fine - particularly if you consider the situation (their pitching staff blows there is nobody in the high minors and there's nobody on the FA market). But they only made this deal because Cherrington and DD screwed the pooch and they didn't want to waste an outstanding offensive team with a dumpster fire of a pitching staff. At least, not with their demanding fanbase and potential to lose their jobs. So they mortgaged the future. Yay for incompetence leading to short sighted moves. I miss Theo.
After he was drafted in 2010, Pomeranz was the #4 prospect in the Indians organization, and BA had him ranked at #61 in all of MLB. By the end of 2011, when he was traded to the Rockies, he was Colorado's #1 prospect, the #1 pitching prospect in the Carolina League and BA's #30 prospect in all of baseball.
Just food for thought.
Just food for thought.
You stated the Sox haven't had such a highly rated pitching prospect since Roger Clemens. Which was long before Pavano. There has been one much more recently. Carl Pavano.
You also seem to complete discard distance from the majors when you're evaluating pitching prospects. AE has great stuff but he's years away. Still you tried to put him on par with Giolotti and Urias, who are already ready for the show. AE is in low A ball. He is in no way on par with those guys. Or Reyes in StL.
He's a tantalizing prospect with nasty stuff, who after getting Pedro comps started struggling this season. He also had a stress fracture in his elbow at age 16. It sucks to lose him, but the hand wringing over this has gone to hyperbole. There is a far better chance he never turns into even a quality ML SP - let alone the generational stud people are dreaming of. Because he's 18 years old in low A ball. And there's a crapton of stuff that can go wrong between now and then. So maybe we should just be glad it was only him that went out to get a very good piece that will give these team an immensely better chance this year (and the next two) and we held onto the better guys that have more stable projections.
Alternatively, people haven't been vocal about their positon w/re to valuing the prospects. I don't know what else to say, but that an 18 year old pitcher is an extremely risky long term projection.
BUT SOMEONE COMPARED ANDERSON ESPINOZA TO PEDRO AFTER 30 STARTS AT LOW A OR LOWER AND THEN PEDRO SAID DONT TRADE HIM AND SOMETHING ABOUT CLEMENS HOW CAN YOU TRADE HIM WHEN FIVE YEARS FROK NOW HE COULD BE ROGER MARTINEZ!?)??11
Kopech pitched at Greenville when he was a 19yr old with better results then an 18yr old AE. I'm not sure the spread is that huge and it sounds like DD likes what he is seeing so far this year.
Time for the fan base to take their prospect humping elsewhere, AE is gone. I suggest to anyone that is really upset by this deal to go roll a spleef and listen to the sweet sounds of Jerry:
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You're posting like you have no understanding of what expected value is and suggesting teams should just focus on a player's floor or "stability." AE is a better prospect than the guys you're happy they kept because his expected value is higher even if his distribution has a wider range of outcomes.
If you have an expected value metric that doesn't account for temporal stabilization, then you have a dramatically flawed EV metric. Could you explain further?
Or, maybe, for a guy of Pomeranz's level, the Red Sox should have sat it out like some people wanted.
I have no idea what temporal stabilization is and I can't be alone.
Edit: all im saying is he keeps equating "closer to the majors" with "better" and that's not the way it works.
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Do you realize what Pomeranz's level is right now? Or that prices were only going to get higher the longer they waited?
Six months ago this trade would have been roughly a 100 page thread of DD hate.
Perhaps Pomeranz has figured out something in the last 6 months and the cutter really was the missing piece. I'm nervous about trading a top prospect for a guy that was considered a reliever in Oak just 6 months ago before being flipped for a league average 1B.
Espinoza was one of the few bright spots from last years Red Sox season so yes I'm sure there is some prospect humping going on. I just hope DD isn't buying at the apex of Pomeranz. I would have felt much better about this if the track record was a little more consistent.
Temporal = time
Stabilization = stabilization
Temporal stabilization = stabilization (of an estimate) over time.
Any EV measure that doesn't account for an error term that is largely time-derivative is flawed. In other words, "closer to the majors" does equate to "better" in terms of predictive validity of an EV metric.
Edit: my original post would have been much better had I been clearer about the error term being the subject of "temporal stabilization". My bad.
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Here's a quote from my post there:
In very few rankings or estimations - apparently except you, j44thor and some other posters having a meltdown - is AE one of our top two guys. Those are Yoan Moncada and Andrew Benintendi. And if you scroll back through our back and forth there, you were suggesting Dan Straily would cost YM and AB, my replies pertaining to that.
I will also fully admit my own ignorance on the advances Pomeranz has made this season and even the fact that he's only 27 with two years control - it seems like way too long ago he went to COL. Some research and informative posts here have changed my opinion of him. Perhaps take a similar read and you'll come around a bit.
It sucks to lose AE. But you're (literally) trying to make it out like we just traded Lucas Giolito when that is completely inaccurate.
First, he's not a better prospect than AB and YM and isn't ranked as such by anyone.
Second, if you can't see what could go wrong over the the time it takes for an 18 yo in low A ball to be ready to contribute to the big league club, I'm not sure what to tell you. Ceilings are great but they means shit if you don't reach them. The more road you have to travel to prove those accurate the more that can go wrong. If he had a remotely high chance of truly being Pedro Martinez or even 80% of that he would be the best prospect probably ever. He's not.
Edit: thank you to bergs for saying it more concisely.
[QUOTE="amarshal2, post: 1786721, member: 13107" ]Cherrington and DD screwed the pooch [/QUOTE]Cherington gets much more of the blame than DD IMO