ALDS: Indians vs Red Sox

DeadlySplitter

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Oct 20, 2015
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This ALDS matchup has been confirmed with Texas clinching the 1 seed tonight, so let's talk about it.

EDIT: Matchups:

Thur Oct 6, 8:07: BOS @ CLE, Porcello vs Bauer
Fri Oct 7, 4:37: BOS @ CLE, Price vs Kluber
Sun Oct 9, 4:07: CLE @ BOS, Tomlin vs Buchholz
Mon Oct 10, TBD: CLE @ BOS
Wed Oct 12, TBD: BOS @ CLE


In June, Cleveland had a 14 or 15 game winning streak, fueled by amazing turns through their rotation, and have coasted to the division title since. However, Carrasco suffered a season ending fracture of his hand off of a line drive, Salazar will only be a bullpen piece at best in this series, and Kluber is not 100% to go in game 1 with a quadriceps strain of his own. There is no doubt injuries have ravaged Cleveland's greatest strength.

As for Cleveland's lineup... it's certainly good, but is it elite? Brantley has barely played this year and will be out, and the same goes for Yan Gomes. They are relying on old friend soon to be foe Mike Napoli for a lot of their power. Kipnis is still very solid, Lindor is an All-Star SS in his 2nd season, Tyler Naquin has emerged in his rookie year, and Carlos Santana still has some pop. Rajai Davis will certainly start against Price and ERod, lead pipe candidate renewed.

I don't know much about Cleveland's bullpen off-hand, but besides a rough stretch in I believe July, I think they're top of the league material. Shaw/Allen are as good as Koji/Kimbrel on the back end, and don't forget - they have Andrew Miller.

This will be the first time Francona has been in the LDS since 2009, our last postseason appearance under him. (They made the WC but got shut out by the Rays in 2013.) This should be a really fun matchup against two class teams.
 
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Al Zarilla

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Dec 8, 2005
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The times on TBS are 5:00 and 8:30. My guess would be that Sox/Indians will be the early game on both Thursday and Friday due to Texas being home as well.
Not necessarily. When the Yankees were in it, didn't they almost almost always get prime time? I think the Red Sox, with the added attraction of Papi's last rodeo, might get prime time this year. Also,5 Eastern is 3 Central, or Texas time. They can start then.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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Not necessarily. When the Yankees were in it, didn't they almost almost always get prime time? I think the Red Sox, with the added attraction of Papi's last rodeo, might get prime time this year. Also,5 Eastern is 3 Central, or Texas time. They can start then.
5 eastern is 4 central, or Texas time
 

YTF

Member
SoSH Member
This ALDS matchup has been confirmed with Texas clinching the 1 seed tonight, so let's talk about it. We have a magic number of 2 to clinch the 2 seed and thus HFA (we have the tiebreaker as we won the season series 4-2).

The pitching matchups for games 1-3 are likely
1. Porcello vs Kluber
2. Price vs Bauer
3. ERod vs Tomlin

.
Just curious, have The Sox indicated that they are leaning this way yet?
 

FinanceAdvice

New Member
Apr 1, 2008
167
Albany, NY
This ALDS matchup has been confirmed with Texas clinching the 1 seed tonight, so let's talk about it. We have a magic number of 2 to clinch the 2 seed and thus HFA (we have the tiebreaker as we won the season series 4-2).

The pitching matchups for games 1-3 are likely
1. Porcello vs Kluber
2. Price vs Bauer
3. ERod vs Tomlin

In June, Cleveland had a 14 or 15 game winning streak, fueled by amazing turns through their rotation, and have coasted to the division title since. However, Carrasco suffered a season ending fracture of his hand off of a line drive, Salazar will only be a bullpen piece at best in this series, and Kluber is not 100% to go in game 1 with a quadriceps strain of his own. There is no doubt injuries have ravaged Cleveland's greatest strength.

As for Cleveland's lineup... it's certainly good, but is it elite? Brantley has barely played this year and will be out, and the same goes for Yan Gomes. They are relying on old friend soon to be foe Mike Napoli for a lot of their power. Kipnis is still very solid, Lindor is an All-Star SS in his 2nd season, Tyler Naquin has emerged in his rookie year, and Carlos Santana still has some pop. Rajai Davis will certainly start against Price and ERod, lead pipe candidate renewed.

I don't know much about Cleveland's bullpen off-hand, but besides a rough stretch in I believe July, I think they're top of the league material. Shaw/Allen are as good as Koji/Kimbrel on the back end, and don't forget - they have Andrew Miller.

This will be the first time Francona has been in the LDS since 2009, our last postseason appearance under him. (They made the WC but got shut out by the Rays in 2013.) This should be a really fun matchup against two class teams.
I"ve always liked the Indians and happy for their success.
This ALDS matchup has been confirmed with Texas clinching the 1 seed tonight, so let's talk about it. We have a magic number of 2 to clinch the 2 seed and thus HFA (we have the tiebreaker as we won the season series 4-2).

The pitching matchups for games 1-3 are likely
1. Porcello vs Kluber
2. Price vs Bauer
3. ERod vs Tomlin

In June, Cleveland had a 14 or 15 game winning streak, fueled by amazing turns through their rotation, and have coasted to the division title since. However, Carrasco suffered a season ending fracture of his hand off of a line drive, Salazar will only be a bullpen piece at best in this series, and Kluber is not 100% to go in game 1 with a quadriceps strain of his own. There is no doubt injuries have ravaged Cleveland's greatest strength.

As for Cleveland's lineup... it's certainly good, but is it elite? Brantley has barely played this year and will be out, and the same goes for Yan Gomes. They are relying on old friend soon to be foe Mike Napoli for a lot of their power. Kipnis is still very solid, Lindor is an All-Star SS in his 2nd season, Tyler Naquin has emerged in his rookie year, and Carlos Santana still has some pop. Rajai Davis will certainly start against Price and ERod, lead pipe candidate renewed.

I don't know much about Cleveland's bullpen off-hand, but besides a rough stretch in I believe July, I think they're top of the league material. Shaw/Allen are as good as Koji/Kimbrel on the back end, and don't forget - they have Andrew Miller.

This will be the first time Francona has been in the LDS since 2009, our last postseason appearance under him. (They made the WC but got shut out by the Rays in 2013.) This should be a really fun matchup against two class teams.
I've liked The Indians for a long time and happy for their success but I think the only advantage Cleveland has over the Red Sox is Tito! I miss him.
 

canderson

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Jul 16, 2005
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If this series were in June, I'd be a serious uphill battle. Today, the Cleveland rotation is decimated and they're unsure if Kluber can even pitch in the DS.
 
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Savin Hillbilly

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Jul 10, 2007
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The wrong side of the bridge....
If this series were in June, I'd be a serious uphill battle. Today, the Cleveland rotation is decimated and they're unsure if Kluber can even pitch.
From the reports I'm reading, nobody thinks he won't be able to pitch, it's just a question of how soon. Obviously if he's not ready till game 3 that helps us, but I doubt we'll be able to escape him entirely.
 

DeadlySplitter

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Just curious, have The Sox indicated that they are leaning this way yet?
Unless Indians are way worse against righties than lefties or something, I'm pretty sure it will be ERod.

as for Cleveland's 4th starter, I think it's Clevenger, who is like their 6th starter. So throwing Clay against him in a game 4 should be ok and could even go really well
 

RedOctober3829

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Not necessarily. When the Yankees were in it, didn't they almost almost always get prime time? I think the Red Sox, with the added attraction of Papi's last rodeo, might get prime time this year. Also,5 Eastern is 3 Central, or Texas time. They can start then.
I hope you are right. I just remember in the 2013 ALDS they played mostly afternoon games. Game 1 was 3:07, Game 2 was 5:37, and Game 3 was 6:07.
 

grimshaw

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May 16, 2007
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Portland
I'll do the quick, lame position by position comparison since I don't think there's much of a question with who has the pitching edge. It's pretty clear that both lineups are absolutely stacked

C - The Indians catching position has been awful for two years now. Gomes was promising until his major injury in 2014 which rendered him fairly useless for the last two seasons. Had Santana stuck behind the plate this would be a position of strength, but the time share between Roberto Perez, Chris Jimenez is all field, no hit, emphasis on "no." Given Sandy's recent struggles, it's possible that offensively, catchers will be non-factors but able to control the running.

Still, the edge has to go to Boston with what Sandy has done overall.

1B/DH - Santana and Nap have combined for 68 home runs this year and a wRC+ of 121. Napoli has the defensive reputation, but the numbers haven't backed it up the past two years. Hanley has cooled off, just a bit and has seemed to improve defensively over the course of the year, but there is no clear winner at the position. Papi is Papi is Papi. He has been the best pure hitter in baseball.

Large advantage Large Father over either bat and Hanley a push over the other.

2B -
Jason Kipnis vs Pedey. Both have had outstanding years. Both have been very solid at the plate, and excellent in the field. Pedey has been slightly better at both wRC+ of 123 to 115, and his usual all-world defense.

Slight edge to Boston

SS - T
he difference between Lindor and Bogaerts this year is Lindor's gold glove. They are roughly the same offensively.

Edge to Cleveland

3B -
The biggest advantage Cleveland has is here, as Jose Ramirez is an up and coming star, who has had a great offensive season. He's basically been Pedey at the plate, and Betts on the bases, with the +8.7 BsR stat. Whomever the Red Sox start is going to pale in comparison.

Big advantage Cleveland

LF -
Rajai Davis has had an ok year, but isn't particularly dangerous unless he is on base (something he does only 30.7% of the time) with his 42 steals. I would think Beni (even as a rookie) and Young, gives Boston the edge.

Advantage Boston

CF -
Tyler Naquin and his .895 OPS and wRC+ of 137 has been an offensive force in his 358 at bats since being called up. The gaping hole they had in the OF, has been closed quite a bit. Bradley's offense dropped a bit in the second half, but the defense is probably what keeps that edge closer to even.

Push


RF - Between Lonnie Chisenhall and Abraham Almonte, this has been the Indian's achilles heel in the lineup. They are average bats with below average defense. Mookie is obviously a top 3 MVP candidate.

Huge advantage Boston

Against any other team but the Cubs,the Indians would match up very favorably in the lineup and field, with 6 forces to be reckoned with. The Red Sox forces are just better overall.

I don't want to call this series a cake walk necessarily, because it will still be a lineup that is hard to shut down and games are obviously still coin clips. On paper It's just tough to see a non-Kluber starter keeping the Red Sox off the scoreboard. The Indians haven't shown up against good teams on the road either, so if the Sox get homefield, I think it's 4 games at most.
 
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mauidano

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Aug 21, 2006
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Maui

The best of friends for a long time. Let's not forget that when John was going through his chemo last year, Tito was by his side. Now, a year later both of these friends have reached the goal the set for each other to be cancer free and matching up in the playoffs. Good luck guys and may the best team win. I'm sure Tito will be pulling for John and the Sox as we head to the World Series again too.
 

grimshaw

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May 16, 2007
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Really? Please elaborate
Porcello and Kluber are a wash if Kluber is healthy, but you need a healthy groin to pitch and I don't think he's going to be able to pitch more than once. Price is way better than their #2, and I'll take my chances in game 3 over Tomlin. Both bullpens are very good. I'd say our closer is better, and Miller and Otero beat our next best two.
 

m0ckduck

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Jul 20, 2005
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The weird tendency of the Sox to draw the same playoff opponents over and over again continues. Boston has played 21 postseason series against AL rivals and 14 have been against CLE (5), ANA/CA (5) and OAK (4). Add in NYY (3) and TAM (2) and you're up to 19 of 21 series.

Plus, 4 of their last 7 World Series match ups have been against STL...
 

DeadlySplitter

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"Indians figure Bauer, Kluber start 4 of the 5 ALDS games, bullpen throw more Inn. that starters, get Gomes back. Wecome home, Andrew Miller" - Peter Gammons
 

MyDaughterLovesTomGordon

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Jun 26, 2006
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The roster for the first playoff series will be interesting.

I think Vaz has a good shot at the second catcher spot, and I think it's only 11 pitchers. But is Pom an option?

So:

Leon
Hanley
Pedroia
X
Shaw
Benin10D
JBJ
Mookie
Young
Holt
Papi
Hill
Vaz

Porcello
Price
ERod
Buchholz

Kimbrel
Koji
Ziggy
Barnes (Right?)
Ross
Taz (I guess)

That leaves two spots

Does Marco make the cut?

Or is it two more pitchers?

Abad or Robby Scott as the second lefty?
Does Kelly make it? Hembree?
 

Ale Xander

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Oct 31, 2013
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I would think it would be
Batting Starters (9):
Leon
HanRam
Pedey
X
Shaw
Beni10D
JBJ
Betts
Papi

Bench (4)
IF Hill
OF Young
C Vasquez
PR/UTIL Brockstar Holt

Pitching Starters (4)
Porc
Price
Erod
Clay

Bullpen (8)
CL Kimbrel
SU1 Koji
SU2 Ziggy
R67 Taz
L67 Ross
LOOGY Scott
LONG Pom

Leaving mop up/emergency/rain for either Barnes or JoKe



The roster for the first playoff series will be interesting.

I think Vaz has a good shot at the second catcher spot, and I think it's only 11 pitchers. But is Pom an option?

So:

Leon
Hanley
Pedroia
X
Shaw
Benin10D
JBJ
Mookie
Young
Holt
Papi
Hill
Vaz

Porcello
Price
ERod
Buchholz

Kimbrel
Koji
Ziggy
Barnes (Right?)
Ross
Taz (I guess)

That leaves two spots

Does Marco make the cut?

Or is it two more pitchers?

Abad or Robby Scott as the second lefty?
Does Kelly make it? Hembree?
 
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Just a bit outside

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I would think it would be
Batting Starters (9):
Leon
HanRam
Pedey
X
Shaw
Beni10D
JBJ
Betts
Papi

Bench (4)
IF Hill
OF Young
C Vasquez
PR Marco or Moncada

Pitching Starters (4)
Porc
Price
Erod
Clay

Bullpen (8)
CL Kimbrel
SU1 Koji
SU2 Ziggy
R67 Taz
L67 Ross
LOOGY Scott
LONG Pom

Leaving mop up/emergency/rain for either Barnes or JoKe
You missed Holt.
 

Ale Xander

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Thanks. Have him over Marco and Yoan as the utility/pr guy. Backs up everyone. Still carrying 12 pitchers.
 

DeadlySplitter

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is there a chance Shaw doesn't make the roster? Holt is the current 3B against righties (their entire rotation regardless of injuries)
 

AB in DC

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Better question is whether Hill makes the roster. If Holt is the primary starter at 3B and Shaw as backup, does Hill even have a role? Maybe as a PH against Andrew Miller, but is that enough?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Better question is whether Hill makes the roster. If Holt is the primary starter at 3B and Shaw as backup, does Hill even have a role? Maybe as a PH against Andrew Miller, but is that enough?
The only response to that I can come up with is if not Hill, then who? It's not as though they are teeming with bench options on the roster. Hernandez is really the only realistic alternative, but I have a feeling that they'd go with veteran experience in that spot. Hernandez's best chance is probably if they decide to carry a 5-man bench.
 

DeadlySplitter

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given that Doubront-like 2nd inning from ERod, edited the OP to reflect Clay may be more likely at this point.
 

The Gray Eagle

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The only response to that I can come up with is if not Hill, then who? It's not as though they are teeming with bench options on the roster. Hernandez is really the only realistic alternative, but I have a feeling that they'd go with veteran experience in that spot. Hernandez's best chance is probably if they decide to carry a 5-man bench.
Holt and Shaw are left handed hitters though. They will probably carry Hill to give them a righty option there.
I don't think they like Marco's defense at third enough to play him there. If they thought he could play well there they surely would have given him more games there in September. He played a few games there in June and July but hasn't played there at all in September.

Edit: Marco Hernandez info was wrong.
 
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Byrdbrain

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Jul 18, 2005
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Hill, Shaw and Young will be on the roster the only questions are who the 2nd catcher will be and if they carry anyone else. I don't think they will because there doesn't seem to be much point in any of the other players being there.
 

j-man

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Dec 19, 2012
3,646
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Boston will win this series a BOS-TEX ALCS is too much to pass up and if u do get to the W S i am 95 % certain u will play the cubs i Say Boston in 4

Game 1 Boston 7 Cle 2
Game 2 Boston 11 Cle 10 f 10
Game 3 Cle 4 Bos 1
Game 4 Bos 8 Cle 5
 

PTC

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Nov 10, 2006
28
Expected win/loss

Red Sox- 99/62
Indians- 91/69

Probably meaningless, but it makes me feel good. Also, is it me or have we under-performed pythag every year since Farrell has been our manager?
 

Redkluzu

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Dec 10, 2007
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1) Baseball is too complicated now for my brain.
2) People are writing about it in a way that makes it even more complicated.

"If Boston wins today, Cleveland would need to win at Kansas City today and in the makeup game at Detroit to finish the necessary one game ahead of the Red Sox to secure the second seed....If Boston and Cleveland finish tied, the Red Sox will get it because of a better head-to-head record." MLB
 

JimD

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It could get even more complicated today - there are a number of scenarios that would force the Indians to travel to Detroit tomorrow to make up their game with the Tigers that was rained out last week. A Detroit win on Monday could also force a wild card play-in game if Toronto and/or Baltimore loses today.
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
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The wrong side of the bridge....
Will they play the makeup game in Detroit if the only thing riding on it is HFA?

Also, is it me or have we under-performed pythag every year since Farrell has been our manager?
No, you're right, although this will be his first season where they'll fall short of pythag by more than three games. And I think that's a natural outgrowth of the kind of explosive offense they've had this year; they've scored a lot of runs they didn't need to win.
 

joyofsox

empty, bleak
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Jul 14, 2005
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Expected win/loss

Red Sox- 99/62
Indians- 91/69

Probably meaningless, but it makes me feel good. Also, is it me or have we under-performed pythag every year since Farrell has been our manager?
Yes, we have. All four seasons.

2016: -5
2015: -3
2014: -1
2013: -3
 

soxhop411

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Dec 4, 2009
46,276
Alex Speier ‏@alexspeier 4m4 minutes ago
Farrell on Pomeranz: 'That was outstanding. More velocity than anticipated...Could have been a little bit of a found gold situation.'

Brian MacPherson ‏@brianmacp 12m12 minutes ago
Sounds like Pomeranz locked up a playoff roster spot with his outing today. Farrell: "That could be a found-gold situation."


Would be a bit shocking to see Pomeranz make the roster, since the sample size (this season, not career) as a BP arm is extremely SSS
 
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