The off-season

I agree on Sale/Quintana. I think he will pursue something, but I agree I'd rather they keep Moncada.

Encarnacion makes a ton of sense for a lot of reasons. But I really love the idea of not being wedded to one DH, but rather using the DH position as a way to "rest" players, rotating them through.

I want Swihart to emerge as the every day long-term catcher. But that might still be another year away. As such, I'm ok with working him and Vazquez into the mix in AAA and Boston. Leon may need to be the starting C for another year.

I think Pablo, if he is in shape, should get every chance to regain his role, because when he's in shape, he's a good baseball player. Forget the money, if he's PABLO, he's better than Shaw or Moncada. Though I do think Shaw can be a pretty decent MLB player.

The bullpen should be in very good shape, especially if Koji is back. Kimbrel, Barnes, Kelly, Koji, Ross, Smith - that's a nice core right there.

In the rotation you list six guys. I know these things tend to work themselves out, and you can never have too much starting pitching. But if they are all healthy, they're not going with a six-man rotation, so what would be your plan? Rodriguez to AAA? Pomeranz to the bullpen? One of them traded?

Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat said:

Who is the catcher? Need to get Swihart back into the mix. The book is undoubtedly out on Leon, but I'd see what I could get for him in a trade. Swihart and Vazquez should be the tandem going forward.

Click to expand...

I doubt you'd get much back for Leon--a fungible bullpen arm that is only a 50/50 bet to outperform some AAAA guy?. If the book is out on him, then the GMs have it too.

Who's on third? I think that Sandoval is going to get every opportunity to get the job back. Regardless, I think it will be filled from the inside, whether it's Sandoval, Holt, or Moncada. Shaw is a backup, not a starter.

Click to expand...

Shaw may be the backup, but Holt can't be the plan. Our #2 hitter in the postseason had a .322 OBP this season. Enough. He absolutely cannot be the 3B plan unless that plan is to give Moncada a set amount of AA/AAA time then give him job.

They barely need to do anything, but ways to improve significantly would be:
-Kenley Jansen. Probably not something they'd pursue given Kimbrel but he would be my #1 target
Failing that
-Sign two of Romo, Koji, and Ziegler. Koji has shown he won't break the bank, so I think he's one of the two.
-It's not a given that Smith will be good/healthy at all, so I don't expect they will treat the off-season that way as though he has a spot reserved.

-Buchholz option picked up.

-No on a full time DH. You should be able to squeeze more productivity out of your starting lineup if they are more rested. Sam Travis is still a possible option. The exception for me would be for Votto and have Hanley split duties between those two spots.
I'm not a fan of EE, but that's just a personal preference. He's obviously one of the top guys available.

-I don't think they have the resources for a Sale deal any more unless they could live without Moncada or Devers and choose one as the future 3B.
If they were to do something like JBJ/Devers/Kopech they could move Beni to center, and platoon LF. I don't think it's worth it.

-If Quintanta were available straight up for Devers, I'd think about it but the market is pretty crazy, so that's doubtful.
Is it even clear Chicago is going to rebuild or were they just making noise to see if some team were to do something stupid in a deal?

-The bench is fine and should be a strength. Young, Vazquez/Swihart, Holt, Hernandez, Shaw, and eventually Dubon (I don't think he has a starting spot, nor should he be treated as an heir apparent). I think young utility guys are a bit of a market inefficiency. Shawe is the most expendable guy they have if Swihart is healthy, since I think he's also athletic enough to take 3B reps. With Hernandez and Swihart they don't need a left handed bench bat.

Pipe dream lineup
-Pedey 2B
-Beni LF
-Betts RF
-Votto 1B
-Hanley DH
-Pablo/Moncada 3b
-Bogaerts SS
-JBJ/Young CF
-Swihart/Vazquez C

You could swap Pedey and Bogaerts as well (it's not going to be much longer before he is no better than their 6th or 7th best offensive player. That is much less an indictment, and more of how ridiculous the lineup is). I'd move X up to the 6th spot when Pablo is playing.

I'd platoon Young with JBJ instead and have Benintendi play CF when JBJ sits.

Another thing to consider. Sam Travis doesn't necessarily need to be treated as an everyday player since it's not a given he will hit enough to keep the job. That's one of the reasons he hasn't cracked a top 100 list that I have seen yet. I see him as long and short term insurance and injury or a platoon spot if he makes a mockery of AAA.



-

1.) Trade for Hosmer's Arb3 year to play 1B and provide a middle-of-the-order LHH bat. The cost will probably not be too high in prospects, since not only did he have a down year but the Royals know he's a Boras client looking for a 9-figure payday after next season. Assumes that Travis Shaw is part of the return.

2.) Let Sandoval start at 3B. Hope that Sandoval can raise his value back to "passable" so that he can be traded after 2017.

3.) Hanley to DH pretty much full-time.

4.) Bench includes Vasquez, Young, Holt, and another JAG to take the place of Shaw.

Then pitching.

The big picture question that they probably need to get right in order to maximize the value of the current core is whether to move young talent for a starting pitcher while the value of most of their top trading chips is pretty high and, if so, which young talent to move. Given the starting pitching available on the free agent market, that probably means "overpaying" (maybe something like Moncada/Bradley/Benintendi and a lesser prospect if they want someone like Sale, just spitballing the exact prospects but something that is going to feel real uncomfortable to us SOSHers). The right answer here depends, IMO, a lot on whether they think David Price's 9 postseason starts mean much and whether they think he will regress somewhat towards career norms in '17.

3B and C are question marks (but at least question marks with enough in house options they don't flat out have to do something before the season) and there will be the usual efforts to upgrade the bullpen, but I think they're likely going to contend for the playoffs regardless.

Stitch01 said:

The big picture question that they probably need to get right in order to maximize the value of the current core is whether to move young talent for a starting pitcher while the value of most of their top trading chips is pretty high and, if so, which young talent to move. Given the starting pitching available on the free agent market, that probably means "overpaying" (maybe something like Moncada/Bradley/Benintendi and a lesser prospect if they want someone like Sale, just spitballing the exact prospects but something that is going to feel real uncomfortable to us SOSHers). The right answer here depends, IMO, a lot on whether they think David Price's 9 postseason starts mean much and whether they think he will regress somewhat towards career norms in '17.

3B and C are question marks (but at least question marks with enough in house options they don't flat out have to do something before the season) and there will be the usual efforts to upgrade the bullpen, but I think they're likely going to contend for the playoffs regardless.

Click to expand...

Are you suggesting they give ALL of Moncada, Bradley, Benintendi AND a lesser prospect? That's insane. Do you work for the Arizona Diamondbacks FO?

No, Im not advocating it. Im saying that that I think the price for front line pitching is going to be insanely high (I heard the asking price for Sale was Betts to start at the deadline) and the key decision of the offseason is going to be whether to pay that insanely high price, pay an insane, but lesser price, for someone of Quintana's ilk, or roll out the current rotation and expect to go into the playoffs with Price/Porcello/E-Rod/Pomeranz as the top four.

If the front office isn't comfortable with the latter and wants to try and win the title in 2017, they're going to have to pay the high price, there's not really a free agent they can go after.

Stitch01 said:

The big picture question that they probably need to get right in order to maximize the value of the current core is whether to move young talent for a starting pitcher while the value of most of their top trading chips is pretty high and, if so, which young talent to move.

Click to expand...

I've thought for a while that Benintendi is the odd man out. Yes, there is friction with trades, but even so, it seems like a waste to put plus centerfield defense in left field. Now I'm coming around to the idea that defense has been underrated and that statistically-savvy teams like the Red Sox are perfectly happy with three centerfielders.

Stitch01 said:

No, Im not advocating it. Im saying that that I think the price for front line pitching is going to be insanely high.

Click to expand...

Good to hear. If that's the price (and I don't think it would be anywhere near that level of ridiculousness) then don't pay it. They already have a very good starting rotation .. if ERod breaks out - which he has every chance of doing - then it's a great starting rotation.

I'd rather trade X than Benintendi right now, but that's probably an emotional overreaction.

They will probably need to upgrade the bullpen at the margins. There's always some turnover in the relief corps anyway. I'm assuming Tazawa is done, and it's not clear if Koji will come back or be as effective if he does. And I'd rather not count on Carson Smith just yet; some pitchers take longer than others to recover from TJ surgery.

I'd like to see them add a starter, as I'm not sold on Wright being anything but a flash in the pan; but I have the feeling that the cost for Sale will be a lot higher than most of us would feel comfortable with.

I'm wondering if this is the offseason to trade JBJ. He had a great first half, but it's still not clear if he'll ever be a better than average hitter, and he still has quite a bit of value. Unfortunately, they don't have any OF prospects to take his place.

I really want to see Swihart in the team's plans as an everyday player in 2017; if not, then he should be traded. I don't fault the team for what happened to him this year, as he seemed to get caught up in a bit of a numbers game early on, and the injury was just one of those freak incidents that was out of everyone's control. But if he can catch and play the field and possess a decent bat, he becomes valuable to this team. Not everyone will agree, but that's OK.

Also am wondering what the team's plans are for Ed Rod. His injury was out of everyone's control as well, but there seemed to be other issues with him, and he ended up being the 4th guy on the post-season roster behind the inconsistent Buchholz.

BCsMightyJoeYoung said:

Good to hear. If that's the price (and I don't think it would be anywhere near that level of ridiculousness) then don't pay it. They already have a very good starting rotation .. if ERod breaks out - which he has every chance of doing - then it's a great starting rotation.

Click to expand...

That's probably where I fall, but Im not in the Price is a playoff choker who isn't ever going to be successful in the postseason camp. If you don't think Price is a postseason frontline starter and you want to contend in '17, then the rotation is not really up to snuff.

Despite the division series sweep, the 2016 were probably the second or third best team in baseball. Best offense, by far. Top five in defense. Top ten in pitching. There's not much to fix.

Despite Bradley's and Bogaerts late-season slumpiness, the Sox got OPS .800+ production from every position except 3B. Assuming Benintendi is for real (and I think he is) there are only two "holes" in the batting order: replacing the irreplaceable Papi and 3B. There are several possible solutions to that problem: Encarnacion, Bautista, Trumbo, Sandoval, Moncada. None of them require selling the farm.

Pitching, on the other hand...

The best FA pitcher in 2017 is Rich Hill. Enough said.

I hope they buy one big bat and keep all the starting position players, plus Holt, who value as a super-utility is incalculable, and Young, who I think has been under-appreciated, to platoon with Benintendi and/or Bradley. Catcher will sort itself out... unless the Sox sign Lucroy or Ramos and use Leon, Vaz and Swihart as trade chips in a deal for an ace.

I've been a big JBJ supporter, but he could be a good guy to move. Still makes peanuts. Obviously a star defensively. Struggled in the playoffs but clearly a very good bat, if this year is any indication moving forward (26 hr, 116 ops+, 5.3 bWAR). All star level player. I imagine he would have significant value as a trade piece.

If they could move him (it might take more than just him) as the primary in a package for a substantial starting pitcher, they could move Benintendi to RF and then platoon Holt and Young in left, which seemed to work out pretty well this past season.

Benintendi would become the CF. Mookie is entrenched in RF at this point

If you fish around for Quintana/Sale, I think JBJ would be the main piece. ERod or Pomeranz would be a secondary piece - you don't need yet another lefty in the starting rotation. Benintendi should be untouchable now. Moncada is still untouchable, needs AAA seasoning next year though.

(Not saying a JBJ/ERod package would be enough for the White Sox, fan trade proposals are almost always too little)

1. Block Rick Hahn's number. After paying for Price and trading our best pitching prospect for Pomeranz, our rotation is in great shape. Cashing in what's left of our prospect depth for Chris Sale or Jose Quintana seems insane. What we maybe need is more rotation depth -- a better option for if a couple guys get hurt or are ineffective. See #4.

2. Consider Justin Turner and Kenley Jansen. I'm not in favor of signing a free agent who would cost us our first-round pick, especially not with a GM who likes to trade prospects. And if you're going to give up the pick, don't do it for Edwin Encarnacion, who would force Hanley to keep playing 1B when moving him to DH is such an obviously good move. Do it for Justin Turner, who can solve the problem of who plays 3B until Moncada is ready and also play 1B. And if you're going to do that, you might as well sign Kenley Jansen, too (and if you do sign Jansen, dare I suggest seeing if there's a market for Kimbrel?).

3. If you don't sign Turner, sign Sean Rodriguez or trade for Eduardo Nunez. We do need someone who can either a) play 3B until Moncada is ready or b) form the RH side of a 3B platoon and add value to the team elsewhere. Rodriguez can add that extra value with his defensive flexibility. Nunez can do that, too, and also give us some speed off the bench.

4. Sign Travis Wood. Assuming they can bring back either Koji or Ziegler (seems like Koji is more likely), the bullpen is in very good shape. What's missing is a second lefty (along with Ross [assuming Abad is a-gone]). What's also missing is someone who can be the 7th starter -- basically, your upgrade over the Owens/Johnson/Elias suckpit. Travis Wood seems remarkably well-suited to do both.

5. Trade a catcher. Going into 2017 with Leon, Vazquez, and Swihart means we'll have three options with no guarantee that any of them will be acceptable. I think that's too much variance. I'd trade one and add a low-variance backup -- either by keeping Hanigan or signing someone like Dioner Navarro or A.J. Ellis.

6. If you're intent on ignoring Theo's "don't try to build a superteam" advice and making a splash, call whoever ends up running the show in Arizona. If they decide that trading Goldschmidt is how they're going to rebuild what Stewart and La Russa have destroyed, we could plausibly offer three legit young players -- Swihart, Devers, and Shaw -- without much pain.

lexrageorge said:

I'm wondering if this is the offseason to trade JBJ. He had a great first half, but it's still not clear if he'll ever be a better than average hitter, and he still has quite a bit of value. Unfortunately, they don't have any OF prospects to take his place.

Click to expand...

Watching JBJ struggle and flail down the stretch and during the playoffs was excruciating, but I'm in the "keep him" camp. At the beginning of the season, did anyone expect him to hit over .270? Or to hit 30 doubles and 26 HRs? He's always been a glove-first CFer.

The main difference between JBJ's and Hanley Ramirez's offensive output this year was JBJ had 23 more strikeouts, was hot early and slumped late. Fangraphs WAR for JBJ is 4.8, third highest on the team after Betts and Pedroia.

I'm not understanding the need to improve the starting pitching which was pretty damn good this series and absolutely brilliant down the stretch. Porcello had his worst start in a long time, and most agreed Price was pretty unlucky. It's not like Cleveland was a slouch on offense all season too. It would be very difficult for them to improve starting pitching without gutting this thing.

There were also two one run games out of three and their defense was ass this series and Cleveland's was flawless. They need very little.

The Sox' strengths failed them, not their weaknesses.

grimshaw said:

I'm not understanding the need to improve the starting pitching which was pretty damn good this series.

Click to expand...

The starting pitching was pretty good against Cleveland? I'm guessing you meant season, not series.

DrewDawg said:

The starting pitching was pretty good against Cleveland? I'm guessing you meant season, not series.

Click to expand...

Should have said pitching overall, but I'm saying it would be difficult to improve on Porcello and Price without gutting the system. It's still a complete crapshoot in the playoffs.

I think they need to assess what they have with a number of players, particularly ones who slumped or were at least down at the end of the season. That is, is the book out on any of these guys and if so, do we expect them to adjust back or to continue slumping.

Shaw (.194/.259/.360 2nd half, albeit only 175 AB). Is his really putrid 2nd half what he really is, or a bad streak by a streaky player? Is he more like his overall season line? Could we reasonably expect any improvement out of a player with a limited prospect pedigree and who is 26, or does the fact that this is only his 2nd MLB season mitigate that? His defense was perfectly fine, he's under team control for a number of years, and he's getting paid approximately nothing. He had a regular split, with a .762 OPS hitting against right-handed pitchers for the season, so does he just need a caddy against lefties?

Leon The defense is good, hits arb this offseason but is still cheap, catchers develop slowly so 27 isn't old. Hit like gangbusters until really hitting a wall .175/.222/.263 this past month. Has two promising yet unproven prospects behind him; Vazquez would likely be a fine backup but Swihart really needs to play 4/5 games and should be starting in AAA if not the starter.

Bradley Jr. His .233/.315/.412 2nd half is fine from a player with his glove in CF, but his full season line is a 5-win, all-star caliber player. Loses a ton of power hitting against lefties, (.239/.309/.356 for the season) but his glove means he's more of a candidate to be pinch-hit for than to lose a ton of starts. Very unlikely to be traded given his production and years of control, this is more a question of what we can expect further and what kind of contract extension would be warranted if it comes up.

Bogaerts Really hit a wall in the 2nd half, going .253/.317/.412 which is hardly putrid, but not the cornerstone player he was in the first half. BB-ref and Fangraphs are split on his defense, but it has improved from his 2014 showing to distinctly playable at SS whether it's a little above or below average. Again, unlikely to be traded but a question of whether he's a good bat or a good bat for a shortstop.

Wright Got hurt running the bases, but was slumping before that. A knuckleballer, so likely impossible to really project with any accuracy, was his start to the season real at all, or just a SSS mirage? Assuming Buchholz's option is picked up, would likely be the sixth starter to begin 2016, but the vagaries of the knuckleball might make him less suited for a relief role than with a conventional pitcher. The Pomeranz trade, Porcello's emergence, and EdRod's rebound likely mean there's little need for a return to form, but one would obviously be very welcome.

Buchholz looked good in his last 10 starts and was fine in the postseason. He has an option which is fairly inexpensive given what starting pitchers cost these days (13.5 M, with a 0.5M buyout). He's always up-and-down. I think the option gets picked up, and the performance of other pitchers pushes him down to the back of the rotation, but what can we expect from him?

Rodriguez looked much better in the last part of the season after an injury and a shaky start. He's likely to be a key piece going forward.

This really isn't to suggest any of these players get traded (or in the case of Buchholz, don't return). What I do think is that a lot of decisions about the 2017 season really do depend on how you assess these relatively high-variance players.

johnnywayback said:

3. If you don't sign Turner, sign Sean Rodriguez or trade for Eduardo Nunez. We do need someone who can either a) play 3B until Moncada is ready or b) form the RH side of a 3B platoon and add value to the team elsewhere. Rodriguez can add that extra value with his defensive flexibility. Nunez can do that, too, and also give us some speed off the bench..

Click to expand...

Nunez had a decent year for an atrocious team, then I haven't heard his name much out in SF. Look what happened to Abad once he came here.

Sean Rodriguez? that douche from TB? Isn't he awful defensively?

DeadlySplitter said:

Nunez had a decent year for an atrocious team, then I haven't heard his name much out in SF. Look what happened to Abad once he came here.

Sean Rodriguez? that douche from TB? Isn't he awful defensively?

Click to expand...

If your suggestion is that the Red Sox should never take a chance on a former Minnesota Twin, then this is probably not the right week to make that argument.

As for Rodriguez, defensive metrics are mixed, but if he can be merely adequate at 1B, 2B, 3B, and the corner outfield spots, that's a valuable bench player.

O Captain! My Captain! said:

Shaw (.194/.259/.360 2nd half, albeit only 175 AB). Is his really putrid 2nd half what he really is, or a bad streak by a streaky player? Is he more like his overall season line? Could we reasonably expect any improvement out of a player with a limited prospect pedigree and who is 26, or does the fact that this is only his 2nd pro season mitigate that?

Click to expand...

We gotta tighten up our word choice in the offseason.

DrewDawg said:

We gotta tighten up our word choice in the offseason.

Click to expand...

Ouch, meant MLB

DeadlySplitter said:

Benintendi would become the CF. Mookie is entrenched in RF at this point

Click to expand...

Yeah that was a typo on my part. Totally meant that AB would take over CF.

DeadlySplitter said:

If you fish around for Quintana/Sale, I think JBJ would be the main piece. ERod or Pomeranz would be a secondary piece - you don't need yet another lefty in the starting rotation. Benintendi should be untouchable now. Moncada is still untouchable, needs AAA seasoning next year though.

(Not saying a JBJ/ERod package would be enough for the White Sox, fan trade proposals are almost always too little)

Click to expand...

Agreed. Moncada and Benintendi need to stay. JBJ is the one to be traded - IF they're thinking about making a move for pitching.

EDIT: I don't know what the Mets are thinking with respect to Matt Harvey. I think he'd be a good pitcher to at least inquire about. He'd be a risk (with the injuries), and the price might be too high, but he's got plenty of upside.

I'd say that DD likes certainty more than trading for trade's sakes. Bolded are sure things. Italics are likely to be held onto, for insurance, upside, or hole plugging.

Rotation: Price, Porcello, Pomeranz, Wright, E-Rod, Buchholz.
Pen: Kimbrel, Ross, Ziegler, Kelly, C.Smith, Hembree, Barnes, Abad, Tazawa, Scott,

C: Leon, Swihart, Vasquez, Hanigan
1B/DH: Hanley (32), Shaw, S.Travis
2B: Pedroia (32), Moncada
SS: Boegarts
3B: Sandoval, Shaw, Moncada
UT: Holt, Rutledge, Hernandez
RF: Betts
CF: Bradley
LF: Benintendi
OF: Young, Swihart,

To be traded/dumped: Sandoval, Castillo. Nearly anyone in the pen.

***
So, I don't really see a lot of work to be done here.

• The bullpen might be upgraded, but if Smith recovers, it looks plenty deep - a trade would have to be for an obvious upgrade.
• 3B remains a hole, but it's also the most obvious landing spot for Moncada in a year (or less?).
• A big bat might now fit in the 1B/DH spot.

More telling is the package that might get sent without opening up holes. There's not much of one that's obvious. No one will want Sandoval. Buchholz, maybe, but with Wright injured and E-Rod inconsistent, they'd be just as wise to hold onto him. I could see sending one of the catchers somewhere, along with a bullpen arm or two, but what comes back? (I'd do a Kelly/Hanigan trade for a more consistent Kelly-light, I suppose.)

I'd hold onto Holt and Shaw - for the same reasons they were valuable this year.

Ziegler is a free agent and rumor has it he wants to return to AZ.

Just a bit outside said:

Ziegler is a free agent and rumor has it he wants to return to AZ.

Click to expand...

Yea I'd say he's done here:

Rovin Romine said:

I'd say that DD likes certainty more than trading for trade's sakes. Bolded are sure things. Italics are likely to be held onto, for insurance, upside, or hole plugging.

Rotation: Price, Porcello, Pomeranz, Wright, E-Rod, Buchholz.

Click to expand...

I'd say E-Rod is kind of locked into a starting slot no?

After the ASB in 14 starts he K'd more than a hitter an inning, and hitters had an OPS against of .613, and only allowed 52 hits in 75.1 innings.

rembrat said:

Yea I'd say he's done here:

Click to expand...

I think he was just giddy that he played on a contender for the first time ever, as a 56 year old. Not necessarily gone.

DrewDawg said:

I'd say E-Rod is kind of locked into a starting slot no?

After the ASB in 14 starts he K'd more than a hitter an inning, and hitters had an OPS against of .613, and only allowed 52 hits in 75.1 innings.

Click to expand...

He was really good after the ASB.

14 g, 77.2 ip, 60 h, 28 er, 28 bb, 79 k, 3.24 era, 1.13 whip, 9.2 k/9

And I know you really can't play this game, but he had one just epically bad start, on June 27, that went like this:

2.2 ip, 11 h, 9 r, 9 er, 1 bb, 2 k

If you take that one start out (I know, I know), his line for the season goes from

4.71 era, 1.30 whip, 8.4 k/9

to

4.05 era, 1.22 whip, 8.5 k/9

That's how bad that one awful start was. Otherwise, on the whole, he was solid all season long, with a wonderful stretch after the all star break.

DrewDawg said:

I'd say E-Rod is kind of locked into a starting slot no?

After the ASB in 14 starts he K'd more than a hitter an inning, and hitters had an OPS against of .613, and only allowed 52 hits in 75.1 innings.

Click to expand...

Italicized more for injury, and I'd expect him to be in the rotation barring further injury, as I would Wright.

1. Sign Edwin Encarnacion. Both he and Hanley play 75-80 games at 1B with the other DH-ing. Encarnacion's already having a monster postseason, so the price should be high. OTOH, presuming NL teams won't be in the mix (which is debatable), he doesn't have a ton of logical suitors. I count Seattle, Toronto, Cleveland, Texas, Houston (if they're done with A.J. Reed), and maybe the Yankees (if they're done with Greg Bird). And none of those have the Papi/Pedro factor — if that's at all a factor.

Essentially, that's almost all you'd need to do. But here are some other ideas to argue about.

2. Sign Luis Valbuena to 2/$14. Gives us essentially what Travis Shaw did in the first half of this year, and is a more reliable 3B contingency in case Sandoval isn't up for it. He's only useful against RHP, but his .352 OBA against them (over 2015-16) helps with the loss of Papi.

3. Trade Travis Shaw, Rusney Castillo, Christian Vazquez, Brian Johnson, and Henry Owens to Cincinnati for Homer Bailey, Michael Lorenzen, and Devin Mesoraco. This is unlikely! And too complicated! And doesn't even contain Joey Votto! I hear you, my dudes.

Obviously some cash to be worked out, but the 4/$47 remaining on Rusney's contract cancels out much of Bailey's, who we'd be paying a reasonable 3/$21 through 2019 (including his $5M buyout in 2020). If he rebounds, he's Buchholz/Wright insurance next year, and slots in as the #5 once Clay leaves in 2018.

Mesoraco's got 2/$20.5 remaining on his contract and bumps Leon to backup. If he rebounds from his hip surgery/-ies, he's this year's Jonathan Lucroy. The Reds got a decent year out of Tucker Barnhart in his absence and would probably rather not pay Mesoraco to be on a terrible team. If he doesn't rebound, Leon is the starter again, unless Swihart steps up. Lorenzen is a solid, cost-controlled bullpen arm that replaces Ziegler if he goes back west.

Rusney has a better chance of being a league-average regular in the NL Central. He's got no value, I know, but maybe he rebounds to the point where he's a better option in RF instead of Schlebler. He's at least a good defender. Shaw plays third, and maybe allows them to listen to offers for Joey Votto. Johnson and Owens are possible #3-4 starters, and they aren't DD's type. The Reds just got had the worst starting pitching year of literally all time, so they could help. This also essentially saves them roughly $60 million over the next three seasons.

4. Re-establish Blake Swihart's value as a catcher in AAA. Give him the season if necessary. The Mesoraco/Leon/Swihart situation would be clearer in July.

5. Give Koji the Wakefield special. The man deserves a 1/$8 contract in perpetuum.

chawson said:

3. Trade Travis Shaw, Rusney Castillo, Christian Vazquez, Brian Johnson, and Henry Owens to Cincinnati for Homer Bailey, Michael Lorenzen, and Devin Mesoraco. This is unlikely! And too complicated! And doesn't even contain Joey Votto! I hear you, my dudes.

Click to expand...

No team in baseball would have much need for Shaw OR Castillo OR Vasquez OR Johnson OR Owens. Right now they are all AAAA players. Why would a team want to take on all 5 of them? The shine has worn off Castillo, Johnson and Owens, Shaw was marginal this year and benched during the home stretch and playffs and Vasquez can't seem to be able to handle major league pitching and goes into next year as our AAA catcher.

chawson said:

3. Trade Travis Shaw, Rusney Castillo, Christian Vazquez, Brian Johnson, and Henry Owens to Cincinnati for Homer Bailey, Michael Lorenzen, and Devin Mesoraco. This is unlikely! And too complicated! And doesn't even contain Joey Votto! I hear you, my dudes.

Click to expand...

Annnnd ...we have a leader in the clubhouse

NDame616 said:

No team in baseball would have much need for Shaw OR Castillo OR Vasquez OR Johnson OR Owens. Right now they are all AAAA players. Why would a team want to take on all 5 of them? The shine has worn off Castillo, Johnson and Owens, Shaw was marginal this year and benched during the home stretch and playffs and Vasquez can't seem to be able to handle major league pitching and goes into next year as our AAA catcher.

Click to expand...

And of course I was being hyperbolic to some extent, of course clubs need a few of these players as bench/AAAA filler. But this is a "hey, lets take a big number of our middling players and combine them into ONE DEAL!!!"

NDame616 said:

No team in baseball would have much need for Shaw OR Castillo OR Vasquez OR Johnson OR Owens. Right now they are all AAAA players. Why would a team want to take on all 5 of them? The shine has worn off Castillo, Johnson and Owens, Shaw was marginal this year and benched during the home stretch and playffs and Vasquez can't seem to be able to handle major league pitching and goes into next year as our AAA catcher.

Click to expand...

Fine. We can also throw in Luis Ysla.

Point is, we might match up with a change-of-culture/salary dump trade with the Reds. They have no reason to pay Bailey or Mesoraco, and those guys are interesting if healthy.

Really wish we had traded Shaw last winter instead of anointing him Mayor of Ding Dong City. Still, I could see him being a 2-3 win guy in the NL for a few seasons.

They don't have to do much. I expect a bit of a regression from the offense due to loss of Ortiz, JBJ not hitting .350 for 2 months, and Pedroia not having another career year. However, if they can sign Encanarcion that would go a long ways in helping offset the loss of Ortiz. 3B will be dealt with internally but not Moncada yet. I hope it's Panda as if he's back to his SF form it helps balance out the lineup and solves a hole. The significant moves should be made in the bullpen and possibly the rotation. As we've seen this series having a deep and talented bullpen can make all the difference in a series. Kenley Jansen and Chapman are pipe dreams but an attempt should be made to sign one of them along with Ziegler and Koji. I'd be OK with returning Porcello, Price, ERod, Pomeranz, and Wright. I'll say it again as I did last year: pick up Buchholz's option and trade him.

Lineup
Pedroia
Benintendi
Betts
Encanarcion
Ramirez
Bogaerts
Sandoval
Swihart
Bradley

Rotation
Porcello
Price
Pomeranz
Rodriguez
Wright

Bullpen
Kimbrel
Jansen
Ziegler
Uehara
Kelly
Ross
Barnes

Bench
Vazquez
Young
Utility INF
Shaw

http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=l119&t=g_box&gid=2016_10_11_msswin_surwin_1

Moncada hitting well in the AFL. 3 - 5 tonight with with a HR. Hopefully he is ready to contribute next year.

Just a bit outside said:

Ziegler is a free agent and rumor has it he wants to return to AZ.

Click to expand...

Why would anyone *want* to return to that shitshow? Does he not like immigrants or something? If he was better than he is, I'd say overpay to keep him but he isn't so they won't and shouldn't. But, man, that is bizarre to want to go BACK to what will almost assuredly be a bottom three team in the league next year.

Mueller's Twin Grannies said:

Why would anyone *want* to return to that shitshow? Does he not like immigrants or something? If he was better than he is, I'd say overpay to keep him but he isn't so they won't and shouldn't. But, man, that is bizarre to want to go BACK to what will almost assuredly be a bottom three team in the league next year.

Click to expand...

Maybe he is an early riser and likes to pack in the morning. And maybe he doesn't have any friends.

“You’ve been traded to Carthage for two third-round picks and a hippopotamus.”

Maybe it's already been mentioned and I missed it, but the only RS FAs this year are Koji Uehara, Junichi Tazawa, Brad Ziegler, and Aaron Hill.

dbn said:

Maybe he is an early riser and likes to pack in the morning. And maybe he doesn't have any friends.

Click to expand...

I'm an educated man, but I'm afraid I can't speak intelligently about the travel habits of Brad Ziegler.

Mueller's Twin Grannies said:

Why would anyone *want* to return to that shitshow? Does he not like immigrants or something?

Click to expand...

Come on man, make your point without casting aspersions.

Maybe it's "home" for him now and as his career winds down, that's where he wants to be.