I agree with everything you said; I'd rather the team remain patient than attempt the quick fix and fire Clode. However, I do believe there are 2 overriding issues that work against Julien:
1.) His tenure. It's been stated upthread, but it will be too easy for Jacobs/Neely/Sweeney to conclude that the players have tuned out Julien after all these years and that perhaps a change is therefore in order.
2.) It's not Sweeney I'm worried about when it comes to lack of patience. Jacobs and Neely love to throw around "accountability" and "unacceptable" all the time. Not sure if that's simply fan service to the season ticket holders, or if they really do feel that making the playoffs is mandatory this season.
After last season's collapse, Sweeney was given enough rope to make the decision to retain Claude. Another DNQ, and it's probably Neely saying "Don, I hate to do this, but Mr. Jacobs is demanding we do something. So it's either you or Claude". Guess who gets shown the door....
I think Sweeney's track record in scouting, drafting, and acquiring young talent is phenomenal and if he gets fired this year, we'll be thanking him over the next 5-10 years for what he did rebuilding this team. As far as his professional talent evaluation and cap management, there is plenty of room for criticism, but I don't think it's been particularly below average as far as NHL GMs go. And hopefully he can learn and improve on that going forward. Two things I love about Sweeney are that he seems to value the opinions of those around/below him, and he gives zero fucks at all about public perception. He's openly said about certain draft picks that he trusted his scouting department regardless of popular opinion. Building a top 5 farm system without tanking, without getting a top 10 pick is a
huge deal. Other than Tampa, all the teams with anywhere near their caliber farm system have been horrible for multiple recent seasons.
I really think lexrageorge's 2nd point is the crux here. Are Jacobs and Neely realistic and serious about what it means to have a couple of "bridge years" to rebuild? And are their public statements just trying to assuage the majority of the fan base who thinks every team should be like the Patriots? Or are they really that impatient and unwilling to take a long term view here? I sure hope it's the former. What they do transaction wise the rest of the season should help clarify that a bit.
As for Claude, I could write pages on that, but suffice to say, I'm #teamClaude. Contrary to some, I think he has been great overall developing young players, despite a few prominent "failures". We're seeing it pay off this year with Pastrnak, for example. Sure he could have been a 25/25 player given top 6 minutes the past two years, but that wasn't what was best for him and the team long term. I feel like a Steve Simmons saying it, but he wouldn't be doing what he's doing this year if he hadn't had to earn that spot. And I think the way Claude went about it really showed why he's good at developing talent. I remember games where Pastrnak was benched late during close, important games, but he never got punished for making crazy mistakes trying to be creative as long as he had his "compete level" up. I remember plenty of times seeing him do something pretty dumb and thinking, Claude I'll fight you if you bench him, and then he was on the ice for the next shift.
Counterpoint to my last paragraph is Colin Miller. I have no explanation for that situation. I have a similarly long-winded post in my head for the halfway thread where he's featured prominently