The Plan For the #1, er, #3 Overall Pick?

Sprowl

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If I had to guess, Danny's just listening right now. He's also trying to drive up the price between PHI and LA. It's smart timing that the news is coming out now - particularly given the leak about Magic being in love with Fultz.
Danny just wants to see if Fultz can hold a fork properly.
We don't know how big Ainge's first tier is.
Due Diligence. I still think the Celtics end up taking Fultz, but there's no doubt that Ainge is running the auction for all he's worth.
 

BigSoxFan

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Assuming that this rumor has legs and that Embiid/Simmons are off the table, how would we rank Philly's assets? I'd probably go something like the following:

1. #3
2. Lakers 2018
3. Sixers 2018
4. Kings 2019
5. Saric
6. Sixers 2019

I'd need at least 3 of the top 4 before I even consider it. But I don't love the risk that Lakers/Sixers stay out of the bottom 5 and you're left with a decent pick that doesn't even come close to approach the difference between Fultz and Jackson or whomever.
 

smastroyin

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You can go up to the luxury cap with no penalties, but you can't acquire players if you are over the soft cap, and the draft happens before FA.

Anyway, the situation is this, if you renounce everyone, you are left with $61 million or so in guaranteed salaries to 7 guys. Assume you are dealing the #3 to get Butler, you have to add Zizic at least ($1.65 million). This assumes you stash Yabu again, I don't think this is likely, but sure. So now you have $62.5 million but only 8 guys. Add Butler and it's $82.5 to 9 guys. You will get charged roster charges which is another $2.4 million. So say $85 million. That gives you $16 million in space. So even if you include Bradley ($8.1 million) in the Butler deal you only have about $24 million in space.
 

nighthob

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I wonder if the targets are Butler and George? That would put them in the first rank of contenders, but I would hesitant running Lil' Zeke out there for defensive purposes.
 

Gash Prex

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My guess is that he doing what any smart GM should do - explore all options and pick the best one - and don't be afraid to make the hard choice.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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This doesn't make me feel great. This is a HUGE decision. If your the Celtics it needs to be a clear win or you don't do it. JFC.
Not sure how you're reading that tweet but that sounds to me like DA has drawn a line in the sand and it's Philly debating whether to cross it or not. In short, I think it says exactly what your last sentence does, so not sure why it would cause unease.
 

MillarTime

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Not sure how you're reading that tweet but that sounds to me like DA has drawn a line in the sand and it's Philly debating whether to cross it or not. In short, I think it says exactly what your last sentence does, so not sure why it would cause unease.
I may be reading negatively because I was all geared up for Fultz, but seems like time/momentum (drags???) is a factor, which it shouldn't be.
 

LondonSox

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Man, since these rumors popped up you like Fultz a lot more huh?
Yeah the point where I've been saying it's pointless to discuss it because fultz is so good, or where I said I was so jealous of the Celtics for fultz were stone cold giveaways I was down on him.

Good point. Well made

If you can find any point where I didn't say you Celts should draft him or that he's the only top their prospect show me.
I'm down on ball, but think his fit on sixers mitigates most of his flaws, I dislike Jackson a great deal. I'm very high on Smith.

But back to original point.
Woj has deleted his tweets which is
A) fucking lame and makes my respect of his breaking news lower if he deletes the misses!
B) makes me still dubious

But I would trade 3, lakers 18 absolutely and I'd be ok with with sixers pick in addition though would want protection top 3 type of thing.
Saric in addition I guess but not happily.
Okafor in addition is zero change. Ie I don't care, I just want him gone

Edit
To be clear the sac pick in addition is too much. The later the sixers pick the more ok that is.

Much more and I'd take Smith and roll the dice on Lakers and sac unprotected back team picks. Or trade back with sac etc etc.
But at a slightly high price I'd do it.
If ainge doesn't love fultz or the fit and loves someone else I would trade down to and see what I could get. Get a guy you like as much and assets.
For the sixers fultz embiid Simmons is as good a super young core as there has been since... Okc i guess? Like that over KAT, Wiggins etc
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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I may be reading negatively because I was all geared up for Fultz, but seems like time/momentum (drags???) is a factor, which it shouldn't be.
Yeah, again, not sure it causes you to be negative.

DA: 'We love Fultz, but if you offer xyz, we are willing to swap.'
Philly: Let is think about it.

'Minds changing' and time dragging on lean towards them keeping the pick, not taking less.
 

MillarTime

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Yeah, again, not sure it causes you to be negative.

DA: 'We love Fultz, but if you offer xyz, we are willing to swap.'
Philly: Let is think about it.

'Minds changing' and time dragging on lean towards them keeping the pick, not taking less.
Fair enough. Also Sox/bourbon.
 

heavyde050

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Any future Sixers or Lakers pick won't be worth that much as those teams won't be losing on purpose anymore. The picks would probably be late lottery at best. I really hope Ainge is just messing with the Sixers as I don't see how any iteration of the trades being mentioned get the Celts any closer to the next banner compared to Fultz.
 

LondonSox

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Any future Sixers or Lakers pick won't be worth that much as those teams won't be losing on purpose anymore. The picks would probably be late lottery at best. I really hope Ainge is just messing with the Sixers as I don't see how any iteration of the trades being mentioned get the Celts any closer to the next banner compared to Fultz.
The Lakers roster is trash that's a high lottery pick. Sixers better but Simmons is likely to have rookie issues as is fultz and embiid is health risk. Assuming health late lottery my guess though, but high variation.
 

heavyde050

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Plus they own the Nets pick next year. Could have 3 lottery picks next year if they get PHI/LAL picks.
I get that they could have three lottery picks, but the pick with the best chance at top 3 is the Nets' pick, which the Celts already have.
Trading Fultz for the 8th and 10th pick next year doesn't seem like great value to me.
I just really hope no trade happens. It makes it even worse than Ainge could be putting the finishing touch on the Sixers running the east for a decade in the near future.
I am sure the Sixers want a trade to happen as they would be getting by far the best player.
Stars win in the NBA, and trading stars is usually not best for business.

Edit: Ainge has earned the benefit of the doubt until anything happens, but passing on Fultz seems like a dubious decision, but again I hope Ainge is right.
 
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Ed Hillel

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If Ainge thinks Josh Jackson is the best player in the draft, then why would he be concerned with the Sixers getting Fultz instead of Jackson?

Ainge is probably the only NBA GM who would have taken Durant over Oden because he evaluates players on his own, not based on consensus. He did the same with Jaylen Brown last year. He's earned my trust.
 
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sox311

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That's what she said.
1st thought - "if it ain't for Anthony Davis no deal."

2nd thought - for the past four years we have wanted Danny to trade assets to get the "sure thing" or "best player available" the opposite of what this seems like. After we have all succumbed to the idea of drafting and developing to build the next contender with GSW slows down and and Lebron is playing in Miami again with his son.

3rd thought - If Danny has Jackson or someone higher on his draft board than Fultz, then, by all means, trade the pick and get more.

4th thought - Again, Danny stock piled all these assets and now he wants to send the most valuable piece he has ever had away for more assets???
 

heavyde050

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1st thought - "if it ain't for Anthony Davis no deal."

2nd thought - for the past four years we have wanted Danny to trade assets to get the "sure thing" or "best player available" the opposite of what this seems like. After we have all succumbed to the idea of drafting and developing to build the next contender with GSW slows down and and Lebron is playing in Miami again with his son.

3rd thought - If Danny has Jackson or someone higher on his draft board than Fultz, then, by all means, trade the pick and get more.

4th thought - Again, Danny stock piled all these assets and now he wants to send the most valuable piece he has ever had away for more assets???
If Ainge thinks Josh Jackson is the best player in the draft, then why would he be concerned with the Sixers getting Fultz instead of Jackson?
Does anyone else really think Jackson is better than Fultz?

Edit: Beside Ainge?
 

Ed Hillel

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Does anyone else really think Jackson is better than Fultz?
Did anyone else think Durant was better than Oden?

I love Jackson, fwiw, and think his ceiling exceeds anyone else's in the draft. Fultz is safer, but I'm fine swinging for the fences and watching Brown and Jackson grow together while also acquiring some assets.
 

edoug

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There's no guarantee that Jackson will be there if he trades down. Ball to LA isn't a certainty.
 

heavyde050

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Did anyone else think Durant was better than Oden?

I love Jackson, fwiw, and think his ceiling exceeds anyone else's in the draft. Fultz is safer, but I'm fine swinging for the fences and watching Brown and Jackson grow together while also acquiring some assets.
I like Jackson a lot also, but I just don't think he has the ceiling of Fultz.
Honest question about Jackson - is his ceiling higher than Jaylen Brown's?
 

BigSoxFan

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Did anyone else think Durant was better than Oden?

I love Jackson, fwiw, and think his ceiling exceeds anyone else's in the draft. Fultz is safer, but I'm fine swinging for the fences and watching Brown and Jackson grow together while also acquiring some assets.
Can you explain why you think his ceiling is higher than Fultz's, particularly given that he is 1.3 years older, a mediocre shooter, and has less position flexibility?
 

moly99

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I love Jackson, fwiw, and think his ceiling exceeds anyone else's in the draft. Fultz is safer, but I'm fine swinging for the fences and watching Brown and Jackson grow together while also acquiring some assets.
Brown and Jackson fill the same role, and it will be hard for them to stay on the floor together unless one of them takes a big leap forward as a shooter. Orlando has already shown what happens when you build a team around a bunch of great young athletes who can't shoot.
 

vicirus

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Assuming that this rumor has legs and that Embiid/Simmons are off the table, how would we rank Philly's assets? I'd probably go something like the following:

1. #3
2. Lakers 2018
3. Sixers 2018
4. Kings 2019
5. Saric
6. Sixers 2019

I'd need at least 3 of the top 4 before I even consider it. [snip]
I agree with the above, and I think ultimately the deal is going to be:

2017 #3
Better of Lakers/Philly 2018
Better of Sac/Philly 2019 or Okafor

I'm thinking that the Bulls would take #3, Okafor, Bradley, and Zeller (waived or flipped) for Butler. The Celtics then find a home for Crowder (future first) and have enough room for Hayward, who may agree to take a few million less depending on where the cap settles. They could win the east with that team next year and still have potentially two top four picks next year.

In this scenario, even if Philly/Lakers finish in the 5-10 range, the Celtics get the combined top 3 pick percentage of both teams. They could even add reverse protection and protect the 2018 picks for 5-30, and the obligation would roll to 2019 so they'd get both the Philly/Sac picks. A lot of ways for Ainge to extract value here...
 

ZMart100

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There's no guarantee that Jackson will be there if he trades down. Ball to LA isn't a certainty.
I would imagine that this would be an agreement contingent of Jackson being there at 3. There would be no need to execute this before the draft.
 

CaptainLaddie

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I will be furious if they make this move. Even if you think Johnson + more picks > Fultz, you're giving Fultz (who is more or less the closest thing to a sure thing in today's NBA) to a division rival who already has a ton of young talent.

I still think Ainge doesn't do it, this is just due diligence.
 

RG33

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If Danny is comfortable trading the rights to Fultz away, I am pretty comfortable that Fultz is nothing special.

People here complaining about the concept of landing Jimmy Butler in a trade because they can't hypothetically fathom beating the Golden State Warriors over the next 3-5 years sound like NYJ fans. Seriously, get a grip. Jimmy Butler is a helluva basketball player, and you don't stop building your team under the premise that you can't beat a team for the next few years. Grow a pair.
 

Ed Hillel

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Brown and Jackson fill the same role, and it will be hard for them to stay on the floor together unless one of them takes a big leap forward as a shooter. Orlando has already shown what happens when you build a team around a bunch of great young athletes who can't shoot.
Brown was a league average shooter as a 20-year old. There were plenty of the same "but he can't shoot!" comments here last year and people clamoring to draft Dunn and Hield. It would seem to me Brown can continue to improve his shot and already has from college. Thus I would already dispute your "can't shoot" premise.

If Ainge sees superior size and athleticism in Jackson over Fultz, along with the same work ethic he saw in Brown, I can certainly understand his decision, particularly if they gain significant assets in return. I don't agree with your assertion that they "play the same role," either. There's plenty of room to have both on the floor at the same time.
There's no guarantee that Jackson will be there if he trades down. Ball to LA isn't a certainty.
Yeah, this is a legit concern. I think Ball is pretty close talent-wise, but I want no part of that shitshow and I doubt Danny does either. I'd guess Butler would be the backup plan if the Lakers take Jackson.
 

BigChara33

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If Danny is comfortable trading the rights to Fultz away, I am pretty comfortable that Fultz is nothing special.

People here complaining about the concept of landing Jimmy Butler in a trade because they can't hypothetically fathom beating the Golden State Warriors over the next 3-5 years sound like NYJ fans. Seriously, get a grip. Jimmy Butler is a helluva basketball player, and you don't stop building your team under the premise that you can't beat a team for the next few years. Grow a pair.
I think the C's can compete if they Sign Hayward and Griffin... Add Butler + IT + whoever we have left over and were competitive with the Cavs....

Karma happens and both Durant's ACL's tear...

Of course, knowing this sport and Lebron... He'll opt out and join the warriors too.
 
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LondonSox

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Does anyone else really think Jackson is better than Fultz?

Edit: Beside Ainge?
Personally I am very low on Jackson. It's my biggest concern that the sixers draft him. He's not a good fit and I think he needs a total shot makeover which is a huge huge issue.
His defence is overrated. The skills are there but he's bad now and I worry how often the tape shows switching off after initial effort or making huge misreads and gambling. His passing is ok but I don't see a primary creator type role and near term not even the secondary.

I thought pre watching a lot he was super high floor even if his shot didn't improve. But I think it's really actually pretty bust like floor. And his ceiling needs improvements in so many arrears.

The tools are there bar the shot. I get dreaming on him but yeah no and not in an million years over fultz
 

FredCDobbs

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Hmm, when I saw Jackson in person this year the
Personally I am very low on Jackson. It's my biggest concern that the sixers draft him. He's not a good fit and I think he needs a total shot makeover which is a huge huge issue.
His defence is overrated. The skills are there but he's bad now and I worry how often the tape shows switching off after initial effort or making huge misreads and gambling. His passing is ok but I don't see a primary creator type role and near term not even the secondary.

I thought pre watching a lot he was super high floor even if his shot didn't improve. But I think it's really actually pretty bust like floor. And his ceiling needs improvements in so many arrears.

The tools are there bar the shot. I get dreaming on him but yeah no and not in an million years over fultz
I saw Jackson in person and mostly agree with this take, though it is on the harsh side. I didn't like his shot at all, and while he is just huge and mobile for a wing, I wasn't really wowed by his D either. He was in pass and create mode, better at that than I thought he would be. Definitely a physical specimen. You could plausibly assign him to guard KD or Lebron due to his size.

ps My take is Danny is getting too clever for his own good. We need studs and Fultz will be one. Just take him. If we make the trade I bet he takes Tatum.
 

sox311

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That's what she said.
Re: people saying "no guarantee Jackson will be there at three."

If this goes down Danny isn't going to make this deal until it is guaranteed he gets his man. Fultz will most likely be drafted 1.1 by Boston. Traded afterwards if it happens.

However, Jackson hasn't even worked out for Danny, how can this be so loud with that fact?
 

djbayko

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Re: people saying "no guarantee Jackson will be there at three."

If this goes down Danny isn't going to make this deal until it is guaranteed he gets his man. Fultz will most likely be drafted 1.1 by Boston. Traded afterwards if it happens.

However, Jackson hasn't even worked out for Danny, how can this be so loud with that fact?
I think people are just saying this because Jackson has turned into the consensus #3 in the draft, but Danny might want someone else or might not be 100% sure who he wants beyond Fultz yet.
 

BigSoxFan

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If this deal does happen, you'd think that Philly would try to expand it to include Avery Bradley, a guy they've tried on multiple occasions to acquire. I think Saric would be my target. Conceptually, I'd want something like the following:

1
Bradley

For

3
Better of 2018 Lakers/Sixers
Better of 2019 Kings/Sixers
Saric

If they only want to give up 1 pick, then no deal.

Horford
Saric
Crowder
Brown
IT

Embiid
Simmons
Covington
Bradley
Fultz
 

edoug

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That seems like a quite a bit. But I'm far from the most knowledgeable basketball fans here so what do I know.
 
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Imbricus

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I was initially intrigued by this story, and the idea of milking the 76ers for at least two high draft picks in addition to this year's #3, but I'm hoping the other shoe to drop isn't two years of Jimmy Butler. He had a knee injury last year that kept him out for a few weeks, and didn't he have knee soreness in the playoffs against Boston? I'd stick with plan Hayward and build for the future.
 

Imbricus

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Thanks, DD. That's good to hear. Might be best to slow this down a little. It's weird, but partly I'd feel bad if the Celts traded the pick because Fultz so clearly wants to be a Celtic. He posed next to that Celtic license plate and made that priceless moue when they photographed him after the Lakers workout. He's a good kid, and he wants to be here, and he's gonna be really, really good.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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If Danny is comfortable trading the rights to Fultz away, I am pretty comfortable that Fultz is nothing special.

People here complaining about the concept of landing Jimmy Butler in a trade because they can't hypothetically fathom beating the Golden State Warriors over the next 3-5 years sound like NYJ fans. Seriously, get a grip. Jimmy Butler is a helluva basketball player, and you don't stop building your team under the premise that you can't beat a team for the next few years. Grow a pair.
I think most people here, even those who don't want Butler, are big proponents of signing Hayward. I might be the biggest. I very much want the team to improve, but the last thing I want is to see them get the ball rolling on a misguided GFIN series of moves that doesn't get them far enough. Hayward for just money is and always has been the better move.

Kind of chuckling over here reading the Oden/Durant posts. Yes Ainge was one of the few who would have taken Durant, but let's be serious here—that was a choice between what looked like the next transcendent two-way center and the next transcendent wing player. The conversation was pretty much "Hakeem or Jordan?"

If Ainge sees this situation as analogous, I think he's flat out wrong, as it seems much more like "Harden or Kawhi but only if he significantly improves his shot and handle and wingspan." It's one thing when guys have the form to project an improved shot like Bradley or Brown. I think Jackson is going to have a ton of trouble. I like him fine, but you have to squint pretty hard to see this is as a 1A/1B situation imo.
 

Thetoddwalker

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I'm starting to think this was Ainge trying to see if Magic would give up something crazy. He probably called philly to get a base offer and then sent it out to the big reporters.