The Patriots passed twice on long field goals yesterday -- they would have been 54 and 55 yard attempts. Both times, they opted instead for a punt.
Net on one punt was 26 yards, so they gained 33-34 yards relative to opponents' starting field position if they had missed, and they gained 26 yards in field position relative to an unsuccessful fourth down offensive attempt for first down (though it depends on whether they would have gained or lost yards on the fourth down attempt).
Net on the other punt was 18 yards, so they gained 25-26 yards relative to opponents' starting field position if they had missed, and they gained 18 yards in field position relative to an unsuccessful fourth down offensive attempt.
So, the question is when do you attempt a field goal of more than 50 yards? For all we know, Gostkowski told the staff that his range yesterday topped out at 52 yards, in which case the answer for the two scenarios yesterday would have been "never". There just isn't enough information to second guess yesterday's decision, so I'm more just asking the question in the abstract. We know that the Patriots are not opposed to going for 50 yard plus field goals as a matter of course. Gostkowski is 19 for 26 on them.
But what are the factors? Weather, for sure. Score. Down and distance. A fourth and short probably brings going for it back into the expected value conversation in a way that overcomes the field position benefit, especially when taking into account that you don't lose the 7 to 8 yards of extra field position. And, probably most important, consequence of missing. If the clock situation is such that the other team can't really do anything with the field position even if you miss, then it makes the decision easier. There is also the possibility of a block or a return, but on the other side of the coin, there is also a possibility of a penalty that continues the drive with a first down. (And punting is not free of risk.) But, more generally, what is the expected value of the field position, is, I guess the ultimate question that I'm asking. If you view most 50+ field goals as something around a 50/50 proposition, there's a 1.5 point expected value to the attempt. Is 25 yards of field position worth giving away those points?
Net on one punt was 26 yards, so they gained 33-34 yards relative to opponents' starting field position if they had missed, and they gained 26 yards in field position relative to an unsuccessful fourth down offensive attempt for first down (though it depends on whether they would have gained or lost yards on the fourth down attempt).
Net on the other punt was 18 yards, so they gained 25-26 yards relative to opponents' starting field position if they had missed, and they gained 18 yards in field position relative to an unsuccessful fourth down offensive attempt.
So, the question is when do you attempt a field goal of more than 50 yards? For all we know, Gostkowski told the staff that his range yesterday topped out at 52 yards, in which case the answer for the two scenarios yesterday would have been "never". There just isn't enough information to second guess yesterday's decision, so I'm more just asking the question in the abstract. We know that the Patriots are not opposed to going for 50 yard plus field goals as a matter of course. Gostkowski is 19 for 26 on them.
But what are the factors? Weather, for sure. Score. Down and distance. A fourth and short probably brings going for it back into the expected value conversation in a way that overcomes the field position benefit, especially when taking into account that you don't lose the 7 to 8 yards of extra field position. And, probably most important, consequence of missing. If the clock situation is such that the other team can't really do anything with the field position even if you miss, then it makes the decision easier. There is also the possibility of a block or a return, but on the other side of the coin, there is also a possibility of a penalty that continues the drive with a first down. (And punting is not free of risk.) But, more generally, what is the expected value of the field position, is, I guess the ultimate question that I'm asking. If you view most 50+ field goals as something around a 50/50 proposition, there's a 1.5 point expected value to the attempt. Is 25 yards of field position worth giving away those points?