Farrell Watch

CoffeeNerdness · Oct 9, 2017

j44thor said:
Their isn't a manager in baseball that is going to make this team competitive with CLE/HOU/NYY anytime soon.

Couldn't disagree with this more. They were a couple of pitches away from forcing a game 5 with Houston today. Yes, they're on balance a better team, but a crisper version of this year's team would at least be heading back to Houston. Also, with the miserable starting pitching putting up a 10 something ERA between the Cleveland and Houston series it's reasonable to question the pitching gameplan, which I believe falls on Farrell and Uncle Carl. I think it's also reasonable to believe a different manager may have conceived a better gameplan for the starters. Lou Merloni on today's broadcast wondered why it took so long for the Sox pitchers to start pitching in. You also have to wonder if the gameplan accounted for Houston's early aggressiveness. The Sox pitchers were awful at putting Houston hitters away. What was the gameplan there?

lexrageorge · Oct 9, 2017

Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
Yes, it's prudent to watch Kimbrel's usage. However, if you use him for only one inning at a time and then suddenly expect him to go out there for multiple innings at a time in the postseason, you're asking for trouble. He should have either stuck with the 1 inning usage pattern in the postseason (isn't that why they acquired Reed?) or had him make more multiple-inning appearances down the stretch to get him used to it so he'd be prepared to do so in the posteason.

The strategy that Farrell undertook was a complete failure. He tried to save Kimbrel for the postseason and Kimbrel stunk anyway.

Your post makes sense if you truly believe that Kimbrel's 2nd inning caused him to give up the double to Beltran. That's technically unknowable, but relievers have had similar usage in the past and managed to pitch effectively.

Rovin Romine · Oct 9, 2017

It’s really fucking unfortunate that Farrell is saddled, over and over again with players that just don’t execute. Whether home grown or expensive FAs, they just don’t execute, to the detriment of poor ole JF. I mean, I for one just think the man’s made nothing but smart decisions, day in and day out, and Lord knows, I’ve defended him on the internet all season(s) long. So I’m damn invested.

It’s just plain sad that the Sox fans can’t appreciate that someone else, besides the manager of the club, ought to be responsible for setting the tone and culture of the club. We ought to blow up the whole thing up and get better players for good ole JF, because these 40 just plain bail and fight and resist everything I knows the saintly man ‘o the jaw preaches day in and day out. And he sure gives a fine press conference too.

lexrageorge · Oct 9, 2017

Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
You think Cherington signed Drew without input from his manager? That's absurd. If Farrell wanted X to stay at short he would have told Cherington so. Drew was signed anyway.

Yeah, the input from Farrell was probably "Middlebrooks is an absolute black hole; but X can play 3rd if we need him to.". Again, the position switch should not have affected him at the plate.

Smiling Joe Hesketh · Oct 9, 2017

lexrageorge said:
Your post makes sense if you truly believe that Kimbrel's 2nd inning caused him to give up the double to Beltran. That's technically unknowable, but relievers have had similar usage in the past and managed to pitch effectively.

He looked terrible once into the game in the 8th, as if he wasn't expecting to be out there. His lack of multiple-inning appearances over the latter half of the season most likely played a part in that.

I am a big fan of managers putting their players into positions to succeed. Sending Moreland up to hit against a guy who is murder on lefties, like Farrell did in Houston, is not doing so. And asking a reliever who hasn't been brought into a game in the 8th in months to do so with the entire season on the line seems terribly unwise.

Stanley Steamer · Oct 9, 2017

I, too, more or less agree with SJH. I'm ready for a change, though I admit that as the season progressed, I became more impressed with the job Farrell was doing. I feel he had a good season managing, getting as much as he could out of his largely underperforming players. That begs the question as to why they were underperforming. So if they have someone good in mind, I hope they don't hesitate to take a chance. That, and invest smartly in hitting.

Smiling Joe Hesketh · Oct 9, 2017

lexrageorge said:
Yeah, the input from Farrell was probably "Middlebrooks is an absolute black hole; but X can play 3rd if we need him to.". Again, the position switch should not have affected him at the plate.

I like stats as much as the next guy, but there are hundreds if not thousands of examples in baseball history of a position switch doing exactly the bolded, affecting the player at the plate. Cliff Johnson, for example, was one of the greatest natural hitters in history but the Astros moved him to catcher and it more or less derailed his career and his hitting.

A young player getting derailed due to an unanticipated position switch is in fact pretty much the most predictable thing in the world. It happened to Julio Franco, and it happened to X. It's a known phenomenon.

lexrageorge · Oct 9, 2017

Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
He looked terrible once into the game in the 8th, as if he wasn't expecting to be out there. His lack of multiple-inning appearances over the latter half of the season most likely played a part in that.

I am a big fan of managers putting their players into positions to succeed. Sending Moreland up to hit against a guy who is murder on lefties, like Farrell did in Houston, is not doing so. And asking a reliever who hasn't been brought into a game in the 8th in months to do so with the entire season on the line seems terribly unwise.

Except this (Kimbrel's usage) happens all the time across MLB. Teams use their closers/relief aces in the 8th, after not having used them that way all season. Don't expect the 2018 Red Sox manager to change course on that regard, no matter who it is.

Now, Moreland's usage is a different matter; I'll concede that one.

EDIT: I'll agree to disagree on the position switch thing, except when it comes to catcher. That's really a unique position in terms of the abuse that puts on a player's body.

koufax37 · Oct 9, 2017

Strong disagree here with one inning players needing multiple "setup" "get ready for it" appearances to perform. Kimbrel wasn't his best today from his second pitch onward, and picked a bad time to not be his best.

Sale was awesome today, but leaked a changeup, his third best pitch, back across the plate and got beat on it. I don't have trouble going to him for that inning, nor would I have had an issue with Reed coming in instead.

I fault Farrell for some things, but I'm not sure the pitching decisions in this one are among them. Certainly things to be weighed and discussed, but if Reed comes in and fails to execute to start the 8th and a pitch goes over the monster to tie it, the calls would be for why we didn't leave Sale in. Your best pitcher, pitching dominant baseball got called on to throw one more inning, and if we had to do it over, I wouldn't do it differently. Then one of the best relievers in baseball history coming off one of the best seasons got called on instead of a save to preserve an essential tie and not watch a lesser reliever cough it up Britton/Ubaldo style. The fact that a bad luck grounder had eyes doesn't make me take issue with that decision either. If Reed had done it while Kimbrel was unused, the logic would be the same.

canderson · Oct 9, 2017

I’m no Farrell fan but I don't believe any manager in the game would’ve gotten better results from this team.

If there is a guy that’s a guaranteed winner who can handle the Boston pressure cooker and nourish this team to be more talented than Houston or next year’s NYYs, I’ve not seen him.

DD needs to get to work. The assistants need to coach better. Scouts need to scout better. Medical guys need to evaluate better.

Smiling Joe Hesketh · Oct 9, 2017

lexrageorge said:
Except this (Kimbrel's usage) happens all the time across MLB. Teams use their closers/relief aces in the 8th, after not having used them that way all season. Don't expect the 2018 Red Sox manager to change course on that regard, no matter who it is.

Now, Moreland's usage is a different matter; I'll concede that one.

EDIT: I'll agree to disagree on the position switch thing, except when it comes to catcher. That's really a unique position in terms of the abuse that puts on a player's body.

Except that it doesn't. Even Farrell hasn't done it this way before. In 2013, Koji had 6 multi-inning appearances over the last two months of the season leading into the playoffs. And in the playoffs he had a bunch more and was pretty much unhittable.

This year Kimbrel had 1 multi-inning appearance over the last 2 months of the season, and that one was only 1 1/3 innings.

If your plan is to use your closer for more than one inning in the postseason, it behooves you to get him ready to do so by working in multiple-inning appearances leading up to the postseason. Farrell didn't do that this year. And it cost him dearly.

koufax37 · Oct 9, 2017

Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
And asking a reliever who hasn't been brought into a game in the 8th in months to do so with the entire season on the line seems terribly unwise.

I don't follow this at all. Using your best relief pitcher in a situation where a run is really terrible for the team instead of a lesser reliever seems like a really really good idea. He didn't pitch his best, and having Sale get through it and hand him a one run ninth inning lead would have been awesomer, but as soon as the changeup leaked back over the plate to Bregman, that wasn't one of the options, and bringing in Kimbrel when you really really need an out is a very smart move, regardless of shift-beating grounder result outcome.

Smiling Joe Hesketh · Oct 9, 2017

koufax37 said:
I don't follow this at all. Using your best relief pitcher in a situation where a run is really terrible for the team instead of a lesser reliever seems like a really really good idea. He didn't pitch his best, and having Sale get through it and hand him a one run ninth inning lead would have been awesomer, but as soon as the changeup leaked back over the plate to Bregman, that wasn't one of the options, and bringing in Kimbrel when you really really need an out is a very smart move, regardless of shift-beating grounder result outcome.

See above.

Rovin Romine · Oct 9, 2017

canderson said:
I’m no Farrell fan but I don't believe any manager in the game would’ve gotten better results from this team.

If there is a guy that’s a guaranteed winner who can handle the Boston pressure cooker and nourish this team to be more talented than Houston or next year’s NYYs, I’ve not seen him.

DD needs to get to work. The assistants need to coach better. Scouts need to scout better. Medical guys need to evaluate better.

It totally sucks that Farrell did everything he could, including going to the media, to get better coaches, only to have DD shoot him down. Man it’s so unfair! One has only to look at how our young players did this year. I can hear that nurture flow from Farrell’s golden teats. It sounds like a 450 Slg for Xander. Or like consistent starts from Rodriguez. Or like some young guy doing well. Somewhere.

Idabomb333 · Oct 9, 2017

Snodgrass'Muff said:
I'm guessing the reports of the team not liking him so much are about as reliable as reports that the clubhouse was falling apart during the Eck thing.

Guy has won 2 straight division titles and 3 in 5 years with a World Series title in that span. I don't think I'd bet on him being fired.

That said, I don't think I'd care if he was if the team sees what they perceive to be an upgrade out there somewhere.

This is the correct answer that could easily just end the thread.

lexrageorge · Oct 9, 2017

Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
Except that it doesn't. Even Farrell hasn't done it this way before. In 2013, Koji had 6 multi-inning appearances over the last two months of the season leading into the playoffs. And in the playoffs he had a bunch more and was pretty much unhittable.

This year Kimbrel had 1 multi-inning appearance over the last 2 months of the season, and that one was only 1 1/3 innings.

If your plan is to use your closer for more than one inning in the postseason, it behooves you to get him ready to do so by working in multiple-inning appearances leading up to the postseason. Farrell didn't do that this year. And it cost him dearly.

I think you're letting the results be the sole determination of the correctness of the decision. Which is fine. But it really didn't look as if Kimbrel's struggles had anything to do with his usage over the last 2 months of the season. It looked more like he just didn't have it today. That, and getting snake bit by a cheap ground ball.

Counterpoint to Koji: In 2016, Aroldis Chapman had one 6-out appearance on 9/4 (but only 24 pitches). Before that, you have to go back to July 28 where he had an appearance that was greater than 1 inning. Didn't seem to bother him in the playoffs, until perhaps Game 7 of the World Series, by which time he was pitching his 15th inning and 13th appearance of the playoffs.

EDIT: I'm sensitive to turning this thread into too much of a back-and-forth argument. So I'll end that I could be wrong, but if I am wrong it's because the idea of a LaRussa managing this team frightens me to the point of no sleep.

koufax37 · Oct 9, 2017

Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
If your plan is to use your closer for more than one inning in the postseason, it behooves you to get him ready to do so by working in multiple-inning appearances leading up to the postseason. Farrell didn't do that this year. And it cost him dearly.

So you are talking about the slider to Beltran? Because Kimbrel's opening sequence in the 8th had nothing to do with multiple-inning. What cost him dearly was Sale throwing a bad changeup, and Bregman not missing, and the Kimbrel not being his overpowering plus command self, and getting some bad luck on a full count ground ball placement. I also didn't think that the ninth inning pitch quality was much worse than the eighth inning pitch quality. Neither Kimbrel's best, and neither leading to great results.

canderson · Oct 9, 2017

Rovin Romine said:
It totally sucks that Farrell did everything he could, including going to the media, to get better coaches, only to have DD shoot him down. Man it’s so unfair! One has only to look at how our young players did this year. I can hear that nurture flow from Farrell’s golden teats. It sounds like a 450 Slg for Xander. Or like consistent starts from Rodriguez. Or like some young guy doing well. Somewhere.

Like I said, I’m not a fan of his. But who will be a better manager and why?

I’d fire Davis and Willis yesterday fwiw.

koufax37 · Oct 9, 2017

lexrageorge said:
It looked more like he just didn't have it today. That, and getting snake bit by a cheap ground ball.

This.

Unfortunate that we had bad Sale in game 1 (I do blame his usage for this and think he was mishandled late in certain games), and unfortunate that we didn't get to have our walk-off extra inning magic worked by Kimbrel dominating and not allowing any more runs as would be expected of him.

j44thor · Oct 9, 2017

CoffeeNerdness said:
Couldn't disagree with this more. They were a couple of pitches away from forcing a game 5 with Houston today. Yes, they're on balance a better team, but a crisper version of this year's team would at least be heading back to Houston. Also, with the miserable starting pitching putting up a 10 something ERA between the Cleveland and Houston series it's reasonable to question the pitching gameplan, which I believe falls on Farrell and Uncle Carl. I think it's also reasonable to believe a different manager may have conceived a better gameplan for the starters. Lou Merloni on today's broadcast wondered why it took so long for the Sox pitchers to start pitching in. You also have to wonder if the gameplan accounted for Houston's early aggressiveness. The Sox pitchers were awful at putting Houston hitters away. What was the gameplan there?

That they were a couple pitches away from forcing a game 5 is a testament to either Farrell or luck because the parts aren't nearly as good as the collective whole.

When you have two players in the top 50 for OPS (one of whom was a rookie August call up) just making the playoffs is impressive.

koufax37 · Oct 9, 2017

canderson said:
Like I said, I’m not a fan of his. But who will be a better manager and why?

I’d fire Davis and Willis yesterday fwiw.

Lovullo quite clearly and obviously and stated by many when it was the clear and obvious transition with its window of opportunity closing...but we happily watched that ship sail. Alex Cora would be a better manager for this team in 2018, and I think there are several more. I think Farrell has failed to have productive value adding strategy (Maddon style), but hasn't been horrible. But he also hasn't gotten his pitchers to overperform which is a place you would hope he would provide some positive contribution as well.

Van Everyman · Oct 9, 2017

II keep Chile, fire Victor "Launch Angle" Rodriguez and probably dump Carl too.

And I probably dump Farrell even tho I said this in a game thread the other day when everyone was pissed he wasn't Tito:

I'm not sure Tito (who was a legitimately great manager for this team) could have handled this season in Boston. Major leader on and off the field gone with literally no one to fill the gap. Other leader embroiled in controversies and injuries all year. Massive underperformance by the highest paid players on the team. Ace pitcher meltdown against a beloved figure in the media. Cy Young winner losing 17 games. Racist taunts of opposing players. The list goes on.

That is a ton of shit to endure -- very little of it was Farrell's fault. And even still, this team ground this fucking season out. Anyone who thinks that this was just underperformance of a team that "should have been better" is completely ignoring that this team had multiple "worst losses of the year" and always turned it around. Every single time. That extra innings record wasn't a factor of SSS.

Those things are not coincidences. They speak to the "character" of the team -- which absolutely starts with the manager.

So to be clear, no one is saying that Farrell is better at playoff strategy than Tito. But I think there's a pretty good argument to be made that they don't *make* the playoffs with Tito coaching this team. And if you doubt that argument, I would point you to 2011: the year Farrell left.

uncannymanny · Oct 9, 2017

koufax37 said:
Lovullo quite clearly and obviously and stated by many when it was the clear and obvious transition with its window of opportunity closing...but we happily watched that ship sail. Alex Cora would be a better manager for this team in 2018, and I think there are several more. I think Farrell has failed to have productive value adding strategy (Maddon style), but hasn't been horrible. But he also hasn't gotten his pitchers to overperform which is a place you would hope he would provide some positive contribution as well.

Lovullo managed his team 3 games under its pythag. There were loud questions about his bullpen usage for at least some of the season. He’s facing a sweep tonight in the DS. Sounds like all the same complaints here.

bosockboy · Oct 9, 2017

I think the easy way out is to move Farrell upstairs to work in player development, and I suspect this is what happens. Cora and Ausmus seem like likely candidates, and I’d move heaven and earth to get Hickey in here to take over as pitching coach.

uncannymanny · Oct 9, 2017

This guy would keep everyone loose.

Harry Hooper · Oct 9, 2017

bosockboy said:
I think the easy way out is to move Farrell upstairs to work in player development, and I suspect this is what happens. Cora and Ausmus seem like likely candidates, and I’d move heaven and earth to get Hickey in here to take over as pitching coach.

I'd like to get Hickey in here too.

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat · Oct 9, 2017

bosockboy said:
I think the easy way out is to move Farrell upstairs to work in player development, and I suspect this is what happens. Cora and Ausmus seem like likely candidates, and I’d move heaven and earth to get Hickey in here to take over as pitching coach.

Brad Ausmus makes Farrell look like Stengel.

Snodgrass'Muff · Oct 9, 2017

Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat said:
Brad Ausmus makes Farrell look like Stengel.

I'd rather see Bobby V brought back. At least he'd light himself on fire in a month and ensure his tenure didn't last more than another season.

bosockboy · Oct 9, 2017

Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat said:
Brad Ausmus makes Farrell look like Stengel.

Speaking strictly as a DD guy, not who I’d choose either.

j44thor · Oct 9, 2017

I'd revamp the entire hitting department. Need a philosophical change on that side.

Don't know what people expected on the pitching side seems like they maxed out what they could get there with the exception of Porcello. Bullpen certainly exceeded expectations as did Pomeranz.
Price and Erod are tough to grade given injuries. The rest is filler.

Sampo Gida · Oct 9, 2017

I don't blame Farrell for this series loss although I havent been a fan of his performance in season. That said , if we are honest with ourselves, we would realize none of us know enough to evaluate his performance off the field , which is probably more important than in game decisions, or at least as important. And even decisions in game are likely influenced by reasons we are unaware of (like players health or proprietary stats)

That said I am a firm believer in moving employees up or moving them out like the military and many top companies do. Too long in the same job creates problems or stasis. JF has finished his 5th year and battled cancer during his tenure. His best season was his first season, like Tito (well, 2007 was close but that was year 4) Time for a change IMO.

That said I watched exactly 3 innings (last 3 today) due to the home I was staying in during my visit to Boston burned down last week and I was tied up visiting my sister in hospital who was in serious condition, but is ok now. So my pass for JF on this series is perhaps not as informed as it should be

Moviegoer · Oct 9, 2017

Not excited about Ausmus. Would love to see how Cora could do, because I really don't think he would do any worse, and I'd bet he would do better. Other than that, I'd be more comfortable with a new face in the manager's perch that I've never heard of rather than someone who I know as an old steady hand at three or four teams over the past couple of decades.

curly2 · Oct 9, 2017

Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
He looked terrible once into the game in the 8th, as if he wasn't expecting to be out there.

If he wasn't expecting to be out there in the eighth inning of an elimination game, he's pretty damn dumb. Plus Farrell said he was prepared to get nine outs from Reed and Kimbrel. I would bet Farrell told Kimbrel he could be in at any time in the eighth.

I'm not a huge Farrell guy, and if they think someone else will be an upgrade, by all means bring that person in. But Kimbrel's failure today was on Kimbrel. He just picked a bad day to suck.

NJ_Sox_Fan · Oct 9, 2017

I’m not sure how anyone can say the team can’t compete with NY, Houston or Cleveland. We literally just did, and quite frankly if ANY of our starters didn’t completely shit the bed, they’d probably be going to the ALCS.

j44thor · Oct 9, 2017

NJ_Sox_Fan said:
I’m not sure how anyone can say the team can’t compete with NY, Houston or Cleveland. We literally just did, and quite frankly if ANY of our starters didn’t completely shit the bed, they’d probably be going to the ALCS.

Our starters shit the bed because 1-9 HOU is a better team. They have 8 guys with an .800+ OPS. BOS had 2. All season long Sox brought a knife to a gun fight. It is amazing what they were able to accomplish with such futile offense.

czar · Oct 9, 2017

Sampo Gida said:
I don't blame Farrell for this series loss although I havent been a fan of his performance in season. That said , if we are honest with ourselves, we would realize none of us know enough to evaluate his performance off the field , which is probably more important than in game decisions, or at least as important. And even decisions in game are likely influenced by reasons we are unaware of (like players health or proprietary stats)

I keep noting that there is no objective evidence that managers have a great deal of control over win/loss records. If it is out there, I'd like to see it.

Many of the discussions on the internal Fangraphs board have revolved around the bolded. Many inside baseball (apparently) think that these "soft" aspects of a manager's job (i.e., interactions in the clubhouse, managing off days, ability to work with the FO, etc.) are more important than on-the-field decision making as long as those decisions are even quasi-optimized. Yes, not using Kimbrel in the 8th more often is annoying, but while it feels like it costs the Red Sox 10 games, it almost certainly doesn't.

Again, relatively agnostic towards Farrell, and it is not like he's expensive if they choose to move on, but if some of the most vocal detractors are suggesting Jim Leyland, Brad Ausmus etc. as replacements, I'd be prepared to have this exact same thread in 2 years time.

Buzzkill Pauley · Oct 9, 2017

Rovin Romine said:
It totally sucks that Farrell did everything he could, including going to the media, to get better coaches, only to have DD shoot him down. Man it’s so unfair! One has only to look at how our young players did this year. I can hear that nurture flow from Farrell’s golden teats. It sounds like a 450 Slg for Xander. Or like consistent starts from Rodriguez. Or like some young guy doing well. Somewhere.

That somewhere is in Wisconsin.

soxeast · Oct 9, 2017

CoffeeNerdness said:
Couldn't disagree with this more. Lou Merloni on today's broadcast wondered why it took so long for the Sox pitchers to start pitching in. You also have to wonder if the gameplan accounted for Houston's early aggressiveness. The Sox pitchers were awful at putting Houston hitters away. What was the gameplan there?

I agree with you here though I think they need a big bat for next year - but in playoffs anything can happen. But I especially agree with your criticism of Farrell. Did you also hear during the end of Sale's 4th inning in which Lou Merloni make mention of Sale was missing (and it sounded from the radio these were radical misses that Lou felt Sale was getting away with in Sale's 4th inning.) with his location the last batter or two in that inning? Then he comes out the next? Lou Merloni sees the missed location in the prior inning. Lou Merloni sees it. Not John Farrell?

And anyone that follows the Red Sox to a certain level knows Sale wears down / and has worn down this year. SO shouldn't that be a huge concern inning over inning in a do-or-die game? John Farrell has imo a history of grinding players to the ground. In this case imo you have to keep a close eye on Sale. Further you have to have foresight that you needed to limit the reg season with this for the playoffs. Once you saw this past month how he wore down and you saw his location was erratic in his 4th inning vs Houston, how can a former pitching coach not see what Merloni saw?

How could he not have rested Sale more this year? How could he have played Xander so much after the wrist injury in early July? Yet he rested JBJ just before the break but not Xander? Mind-boggling! Why is it that last year I heard the Sox played their starter position players more than any team in many, many years? As a result surprise Betts had a knee injury. He hit 3 home runs in his last 43 games last year. Yet there he was even playing teh last few games last year. Isn't there any cocnern he wasn't hitting home runs any more? This year Mookie gets hurt again at the end. Possibly because John grinded him again? Last year Xander complained during the 2nd half that he was worn down. Yet John kept playing him. His overuse of Tazawa vs he could have used Ross at least early. His blunder of pinch-running Wright instead of Pomeranz last year. He deserves credit this year for overall handling the pen. But sooner or later you know he is going to make a "blockhead" move. He is not awful but I think excusing all his blunders because he won the division two straight years with a very talented team misstates the point.

DennyDoyle'sBoil · Oct 10, 2017

canderson said:
If there is a guy that’s a guaranteed winner who can handle the Boston pressure cooker and nourish this team to be more talented than Houston or next year’s NYYs, I’ve not seen him.

Sixty posts before the issue of "who is better" comes up.

One of the things that drove me crazy this year about Farrell criticism on this board was how often it was simply to take issue with a decision he made without any suggestion of the alternatives. It was laughable in game threads at times. People furious there was no pinch hitter when it would mean losing the DH or making Chris Young play third base or whatever.

The same is true here. What is the alternative? Is the argument "anyone is better"? Or "who cares, we need change for change's sake" or "there must be someone better, DD will find him"? Let's talk names. If we're going to replace a 93 win manager, it can't be just 'cuz.

It's a zero sum game. I agree with many of you in the sense that I don't love the guy, and I have a suspicion that we could do better. But I know for sure we could do a lot worse. Pining for the halcyon days of Lovullo and dreams about Alex Cora strike me as a bit naive but at least it's a legitimate start of a discussion.

patinorange · Oct 10, 2017

Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat said:
Brad Ausmus makes Farrell look like Stengel.

You may have hit the nail on the head as to why they will probably keep him. Who knows how a new, young blood will do. This ain't the diamondbacks or the Twins that can take a chance. This is the Red Sox, with a big market, demanding fans, and a big payroll.
I don't think they risk trying out someone with little or no major league experience.
I'll never understand how they brought Farrell back after two last place finishes. That would have been the time to test some new toys. Nothing to lose. But now? I think we are stuck with him. It wouldn't surprise me if they extend him.

It's really just personal preference. I won't pretend to be inside the clubhouse or assign a number of wins and losses to the manager. It's just that the guy reminds me of every dipshit middle manager I have come across in large corporations. Francona seemed like a real person. Farrell seems like a BS artist.
I always wonder if the players think the same. I have no way of knowing.

For the record, today, I stay with Sale for as long as JF did.

It should be an interesting off season.

Papelbon's Poutine · Oct 10, 2017

j44thor said:
Their isn't a manager in baseball that is going to make this team competitive with CLE/HOU/NYY anytime soon. This team maxed out their expected win rate given the team they field. It is very tough to win with pitching and defense, esp when the pitching doesn't show up in a short series.

The number of regulars that would start on any other AL playoff team is around 1-3.

Which team and which position on that particular team?

Not sure if it was you or someone else but I saw this posted previously and it's a pretty ridiculous statement. You're proposing it as if the rest of the other playoff teams get to make an All Star team of their rosters and then the Sox have to compete with it. That's not how baseball works.

Would JBJ not start over Ellsbury for the Yankees? Would Moreland not start over their 1B choices? Betts might move to CF or LF, but he's starting. Is Pedroia sitting for Castro?

I could go on to the other teams, but you get the point. As to the overall point of being competitive with those three teams, I think it's pretty ridiculous to suggest that as currently constructed - with health - they can't compete, let alone beat, those teams. If Price is healthy and pitching to his ability, this team probably comes close to 100 wins. They had some down turns from the young guys, but that's to be expected. Just like those other teams will have down turns from their young guys next year or the year after. Super teams don't exist in baseball. And pitching and defense has worked pretty damn well for the Royals and Giants over recent seasons.

People need to pump the brakes a bit on declaring this team unable to compete. Or any asinine talk of a rebuild.

Snodgrass'Muff said:
But I've yet to see a good argument for why Farrell is a bad manager.

How about the times he didn't know the rules of the game?

Eddie Jurak · Oct 10, 2017

soxeast said:
Did you also hear during the end of Sale's 4th inning in which Lou Merloni make mention of Sale was missing (and it sounded from the radio these were radical misses that Lou felt Sale was getting away with in Sale's 4th inning.) with his location the last batter or two in that inning? Then he comes out the next? Lou Merloni sees the missed location in the prior inning. Lou Merloni sees it. Not John Farrell?

It needs to be said: in this loss, Farrell was reminiscent of Gump in failing to recognize his gassed pitcher and in backing away from what had been a successful bullpen strategy ("Reed in the 8th, Kimbrel in the 9th").

I guess his game 5 plan would have been to start Price, so going to his game 5 starter in this one was a good move that paid off for him... until he left him in to cough up the lead.

BaseballJones · Oct 10, 2017

j44thor said:
Our starters shit the bed because 1-9 HOU is a better team. They have 8 guys with an .800+ OPS. BOS had 2. All season long Sox brought a knife to a gun fight. It is amazing what they were able to accomplish with such futile offense.

Well, a couple of things to this point. Of COURSE the Astros had a better lineup. It was, by some measures, an historically great offense. Very tough to pitch well to that team and keep them down.

But first, I don't care if it's the 27 Yankees, you don't expect to give up runs in the first EVERY SINGLE GAME. And in 3 of the four, MULTIPLE runs. 2, 2, 3, and 1 runs given up in the first. Every game you're immediately down. Tough to hold them down over the course of the entire game, but it's really hard to understand how they simply couldn't get out of the first - EVER - without giving up runs.

FWIW, Houston was 11th this year in MLB in scoring in the first inning, averaging 0.60 runs per first inning during the regular season . Boston was 21st, averaging 0.52 runs per first inning. So for them to average two runs per game in the first inning was significantly more than they averaged during the regular season.

Second, the playoffs are different. I think of Severino and the AL Wild Card game. There's no way the Yankees don't let Severino try to pitch his way through it, if that was a regular season game in May. Same with Porcello yesterday. NO WAY they don't let him keep going if it's a regular season game in May. No way. In fact, in so many games this year Porcello struggled but they let him work through it - the end result wasn't good, but he usually found a way to go 6 innings. But it's the playoffs so you can't afford that, so you see, across the board, teams pulling their starter right away, and it makes their pitching lines look that much more awful. They simply don't give their starters a chance to settle down, which happens all the time in the regular season. I can't imagine managing a team where you yank the starter every time he has a bad first inning. But in the playoffs, yeah, you do, and so it makes it look like the pitcher completely crapped the bed.

Rovin Romine · Oct 10, 2017

canderson said:
Like I said, I’m not a fan of his. But who will be a better manager and why?

I’d fire Davis and Willis yesterday fwiw.

It's on ownership to find a better-than-Farrell level manager. They exist - Francona wasn't hatched out of an egg, but few thought he was the obvious choice before he was hired. But at this point, even an equal-to-Farrell level manager would send a message, provide new faces, and change the path of the team.

They just have to avoid a BV and they're likely to get a net gain, either by a new manager and staff coaching out better performances from the native talent, or by picking a better in-game manager who can use less robust performances in a more optimal way. Louvello's not perfect, but imagine him managing a team with the 2016 stats of all of the players? I think the outcome is likely better if he would have had the sense to rest key players and/or use them for the post season.

For all my tongue in cheek upthread railing against Farrell, he did do a better job with the bullpen this year. But the underperformance of the players is on him as well. Let's look:

The 2017 team saw regression for all batters (except Devers and Vaz). That should not have happened. Even in a bad luck year.

Major SP assets were injured, grossly underperformed, or were misued. Drew "improved" in line with expectations - but his overall stats are very close to his 2016 line. Sale, known to tire late in the season, was allowed to do so. If Farrell and Co. get credit for Fister, they get negative credit for Porcello and ERod and (yes) Wright.

The BP arms were improved but the effective ones were worked very hard. (Which is sort of the nature of the beast if you want good results.) Kimbrel was great, but I'm hesitant to attribute 2017 to a change in coaching, given his talent level. It was more of a throwback to one of his better years in ATL. Kelly though, shone. Hembree was used hard and was a bit worn, but very effective. Ditto Barnes. And Scott did well. (That said, I still don't know why Velazquez couldn't have taken some of those innings.)

czar said:
I keep noting that there is no objective evidence that managers have a great deal of control over win/loss records. If it is out there, I'd like to see it.

Many of the discussions on the internal Fangraphs board have revolved around the bolded. Many inside baseball (apparently) think that these "soft" aspects of a manager's job (i.e., interactions in the clubhouse, managing off days, ability to work with the FO, etc.) are more important than on-the-field decision making as long as those decisions are even quasi-optimized. Yes, not using Kimbrel in the 8th more often is annoying, but while it feels like it costs the Red Sox 10 games, it almost certainly doesn't.

Again, relatively agnostic towards Farrell, and it is not like he's expensive if they choose to move on, but if some of the most vocal detractors are suggesting Jim Leyland, Brad Ausmus etc. as replacements, I'd be prepared to have this exact same thread in 2 years time.

I guess lack of objective evidence carries the day.

Although it does go to your point re: the soft skills, there's no evidence that Farrell is so much better than average he couldn't be replaced with an equally competent middle manager type. I would have more confidence in Farrell's ability to soft-manage if he didn't make boneheaded moves. It's like he's brilliant dealing with things that never come to light, but man, there's that occasional weekly head scratcher? Not the most likely scenario.

uncannymanny · Oct 10, 2017

Farrell was ejected in the 2nd wasn’t he?

BaseballJones · Oct 10, 2017

Rovin Romine said:
It's on ownership to find a better-than-Farrell level manager. They exist - Francona wasn't hatched out of an egg, but few thought he was the obvious choice before he was hired. But at this point, even an equal-to-Farrell level manager would send a message, provide new faces, and change the path of the team.

They just have to avoid a BV and they're likely to get a net gain, either by a new manager and staff coaching out better performances from the native talent, or by picking a better in-game manager who can use less robust performances in a more optimal way. Louvello's not perfect, but imagine him managing a team with the 2016 stats of all of the players? I think the outcome is likely better if he would have had the sense to rest key players and/or use them for the post season.

For all my tongue in cheek upthread railing against Farrell, he did do a better job with the bullpen this year. But the underperformance of the players is on him as well. Let's look:

The 2017 team saw regression for all batters (except Devers and Vaz). That should not have happened. Even in a bad luck year.

Even with Charlie Brown as manager, the likelihood of every returning starter regressing all in the same year is very very small. If you blame Farrell for that, we should credit Farrell for their great years the previous year, right?

Rovin Romine said:
Major SP assets were injured, grossly underperformed, or were misued. Drew "improved" in line with expectations - but his overall stats are very close to his 2016 line. Sale, known to tire late in the season, was allowed to do so. If Farrell and Co. get credit for Fister, they get negative credit for Porcello and ERod and (yes) Wright.

What were they supposed to do about Sale? They were in a dogfight of a pennant race. Every game mattered. Every inning of every game mattered. The only questionable (i.e., stupid) call with respect to Sale was him going for 300 strikeouts, but there's no rational way to blame what happened in the playoffs on those dozen extra pitches in that game.

Rovin Romine said:
The BP arms were improved but the effective ones were worked very hard. (Which is sort of the nature of the beast if you want good results.) Kimbrel was great, but I'm hesitant to attribute 2017 to a change in coaching, given his talent level. It was more of a throwback to one of his better years in ATL. Kelly though, shone. Hembree was used hard and was a bit worn, but very effective. Ditto Barnes. And Scott did well. (That said, I still don't know why Velazquez couldn't have taken some of those innings.)

The effective bullpen arms weren't worked in any way out of line with other teams' top relievers.

I don't care if Farrell stays or goes; I'm ambivalent. But some of the criticism here seems questionable to me.

charlieoscar · Oct 10, 2017

uncannymanny said:
Farrell was ejected in the 2nd wasn’t he?

Shaughnessy's article in The Globe today says: "Ejected in the second inning while defending Pedroia, who argued a called third strike, Farrell continued to call the shots via satellite (Fitbit, perhaps?)

Don't know if Shaughnessy was just being cute or if this is fact but if the latter, what sense will there be in the future in ejecting the manager?

Rovin Romine · Oct 10, 2017

BaseballJones said:
Even with Charlie Brown as manager, the likelihood of every returning starter regressing all in the same year is very very small. If you blame Farrell for that, we should credit Farrell for their great years the previous year, right?

You're confusing causality with responsibility. You're also chopping logic - as though the players didn't have development arcs. Coaching and usage will impact those arcs. If you want to make a cogent argument that Farrell does very well with younger players on average, but this season is an outlier *for reasons outside of Farrell's control*, be my guest. (Obviously injuries can kill a season, but I don't see younger players consistently flourishing under Farrell.)

BaseballJones said:
What were they supposed to do about Sale? They were in a dogfight of a pennant race. Every game mattered. Every inning of every game mattered. The only questionable (i.e., stupid) call with respect to Sale was him going for 300 strikeouts, but there's no rational way to blame what happened in the playoffs on those dozen extra pitches in that game.

I think a good manager would find a way to slip the team's main weapon a couple of extra off days. I think a bad manager makes boneheaded decisions that makes a season tighter (and gives less flexibility for things like rest). Especially in a season where "every inning of every game" matters.

BaseballJones said:
The effective bullpen arms weren't worked in any way out of line with other teams' top relievers.

Which is why I said, it's the nature of the beast. We can dive into just how Farrell used his bullpen if you want. While I'm not thrilled with his approach, I'm willing to give him credit for doing a good job with it overall.

BaseballJones said:
I don't care if Farrell stays or goes; I'm ambivalent. But some of the criticism here seems questionable to me.

There's a lot of emotion here, but I've yet to see a cogent argument that Farrell shouldn't be held responsible for what actually occurred under his watch. He simply is. Whether that's "fair" or not is another issue.

If Farrell is average, he should be jettisoned for a new average face at this point.

uncannymanny · Oct 10, 2017

Rovin Romine said:
There's a lot of emotion here, but I've yet to see a cogent argument that Farrell shouldn't be held responsible for what actually occurred under his watch. He simply is. Whether that's "fair" or not is another issue.

From a guy who posted what you did yesterday after the games? LOL.

I have yet to see a cogent argument that doesn’t chalk up his successes with the team and players to “in spite of”.

BaseballJones · Oct 10, 2017

Rovin Romine said:
You're confusing causality with responsibility. You're also chopping logic - as though the players didn't have development arcs. Coaching and usage will impact those arcs. If you want to make a cogent argument that Farrell does very well with younger players on average, but this season is an outlier *for reasons outside of Farrell's control*, be my guest. (Obviously injuries can kill a season, but I don't see younger players consistently flourishing under Farrell.)

Right but players even as they develop tend to go up and down - like the stock market. Hopefully the trend is up, but there can be down years in there as well. I just pulled a name out of the hat - Dwight Evans. Nearly hall of fame career. Here is his ops+ numbers over his first 10 full seasons:

93
110
120 (so far so good - nice developmental arc, right?)
109 (uh-oh - should the manager be held responsible?)
128 (oh back to being great again)
109 (uh-oh - should the manager be held responsible?)
115 (climbing again)
124 (climbing more)
163 (his peak)

I think this is typical. I have no idea why these guys all underperformed this year compared to last. Maybe losing Papi hurt in all sorts of ways besides losing his offense. Maybe it impacted everyone around him - that wouldn't be on Farrell. Maybe they coached these guys wrong this year. Maybe it's just small sample variation, like Dewey's 109 year following his 120 year. Who knows?

As I've said before, I couldn't care less if Farrell stays or goes. I'm not a JF apologist but I'm also not sure I lay it all at his feet.

Rovin Romine said:
I think a good manager would find a way to slip the team's main weapon a couple of extra off days. I think a bad manager makes boneheaded decisions that makes a season tighter (and gives less flexibility for things like rest). Especially in a season where "every inning of every game" matters.

As we headed down the stretch, you tell me where they should have given Sale a couple of extra days off, and how you know that those couple of extra days would have made him pitch better in the ALCS.

Rovin Romine said:
Which is why I said, it's the nature of the beast. We can dive into just how Farrell used his bullpen if you want. While I'm not thrilled with his approach, I'm willing to give him credit for doing a good job with it overall.

There's a lot of emotion here, but I've yet to see a cogent argument that Farrell shouldn't be held responsible for what actually occurred under his watch. He simply is. Whether that's "fair" or not is another issue.

If Farrell is average, he should be jettisoned for a new average face at this point.

Yes, well of course he should be held responsible, being the manager. But that also means being held responsible for the SUCCESS too. Winning his second straight division title (no small feat given that the Red Sox have NEVER done that before, which is hard to believe actually), and losing to a superior team while several of his key guys are playing hurt (Pedroia, Betts, Bogaerts, and Nunez completely out) isn't really an unsuccessful season.

Farrell Watch

Member

Member

Johnny Rico

Member

Throw Momma From the Train

Member

Throw Momma From the Train

Member

Member

Mr. Brightside

Throw Momma From the Train

Member

Throw Momma From the Train

Johnny Rico

Member

Member

Member

Mr. Brightside

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Well-Known Member

has big, douchey shoulders

oppresses WARmongers

Member

Member

Member

broken record

Member

Member

Member

fanboy

Member

New Member

Found no thrill on Blueberry Hill

Member

Homeland Security

canderson-lite

ivanvamp

Johnny Rico

Member

ivanvamp

Member

Johnny Rico

Member

ivanvamp