JDM

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Red(s)HawksFan

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I guess I need clarification if his option is voided if he’s traded as well as if he’s cut. If so, maybe the White Sox and Twins could be in if we pick up $15M or so of his 2018 salary.
If he's cut, the option goes away because the contract ends at that point. If he's traded, the new team assumes the existing contract, including the option.
 

sean1562

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If he's cut, the option goes away because the contract ends at that point. If he's traded, the new team assumes the existing contract, including the option.
Which seems to void any potential interest any team may have. no fringe team wants to be on the hook for that 22 million if he is even kind of good, and no contender is gonna trade for Hanley Ramirez so they can make sure his vesting option kicks in and they have to pay him 22 million next year. Those teams would be better served waiting for us to cut him than trading for him
 

chawson

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Which seems to void any potential interest any team may have. no fringe team wants to be on the hook for that 22 million if he is even kind of good, and no contender is gonna trade for Hanley Ramirez so they can make sure his vesting option kicks in and they have to pay him 22 million next year. Those teams would be better served waiting for us to cut him than trading for him
Exactly. And his declaration today that he’s “ready to play 10 more years” could safely be interpreted as he’s not about to be a fourth outfielder.

Again, I love Hanley. But with his contract in the present system, he has no value. He should be traded for another team’s mistake who can at least provide us a shred of value (a guy like Hammel), because the receiving team would have less at stake by not playing him enough to vest his option.
 

chawson

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Or maybe the Twins are desperate enough to go all in that they trade something of actual value for him to DH over Kennys Vargas. If he hits well and gets 497 PAs, they can worry about his 2019 salary next year, when Mauer and Dozier come off the books.

They’d be looking to bump us out, though, so I doubt it’d work. Probably more likely that we trade for Mauer in August.
 

grimshaw

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I think he'd be worth at most - Yonder Alonso on the open market who signed for 2/16.
Alonso 2015-2017 - .266/.346/.418 wRC+ 109
Hanley 2015-2017 - .261/.348/.457 wRC+ 106

Both have had one good year out of the past three. Neither are sparkling fielders. Yonder has the more recent success and Hanley has the obvious track record which also carries an injury history and is 4 years older. I kind of doubt Hanley would even play the field on a new team, so he may be worth even less than that. And not on a contender either.

Hanley is projected for a wRC+ of 112 to Alonso' wRC+ 109 but the latter still plays the field.

He has no trade value because of the bats still out there right now but could later on.
 

Plympton91

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Which seems to void any potential interest any team may have. no fringe team wants to be on the hook for that 22 million if he is even kind of good, and no contender is gonna trade for Hanley Ramirez so they can make sure his vesting option kicks in and they have to pay him 22 million next year. Those teams would be better served waiting for us to cut him than trading for him
It means the Red Sox would have to be willing to subsidize 2 years of the contract if the option is triggered. They could offer to pay $15 million (other team's cost $7 million) in 2018 and $10 million (other team's potential cost $12 million) in 2019 or something, to give the other team both an incentive to take the risk, and limit their incentive to keep playing him if his value falls further.
 

Sampo Gida

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A good comp for JDM is Jose Bautista. Late bloomer kept himself fit like JDM. From age 30-34 he put up a 154 OPS+ and 173 HR. Not much of a fielder besides the gun in RF. That justifies the Red Sox 5 yr commitment for JDM. In Bautistas 35-36 aged seasons decline set in big time. Fitness only carries you so far I guess.

Red Sox might want to tack on a couple of low paying player options for the 6th and 7th year to break the impasse, or a front loaded 7 year deal with an opt out after the 4th and 5th year.

The longer this continues someone may decide to jump in due to injury as players ramp up offseason workouts.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
A good comp for JDM is Jose Bautista. Late bloomer kept himself fit like JDM. From age 30-34 he put up a 154 OPS+ and 173 HR. Not much of a fielder besides the gun in RF. That justifies the Red Sox 5 yr commitment for JDM. In Bautistas 35-36 aged seasons decline set in big time. Fitness only carries you so far I guess.
A good comp, aside from the fact that Bautista walked far more (career 14.1% to 8.0%), struck out less (18.7% to 25.2%), and was a more extreme flyball hitter (45.5% to 37.9%) and pull hitter (47.0% to 39.1%) with a gigantically lower BABIP (.264 to .341). Matt Kemp (7.4%, 23.3%, 35.8%, 42.1%, .338 on the above stats) still looks like a much better JDM comp to me--and a much less encouraging one.
 

sean1562

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Ouch yea I don’t like those stats at all. No reason to sweeten the deal we are his only suitors at the 125 mil range
 

nvalvo

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Also, JDM wasn't really that much of a late bloomer. He broke out at 26. He was frankly rushed to the majors after early minor league success, and spent his age 23-25 seasons scuffling for 100+ loss Astros teams, when a more normal organization would probably have given him more development time.
 

Sampo Gida

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So Lorenzo Cain getting 5 years while two years older than JDM does not help. A 4 WAR player signing for a 16 million AAV does help. Tack on an extra 1-2 yeas and lower the AAV and be done with it. Limit any NTC's so he can be moved as needed
 

grimshaw

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I think Cain benefited because of his position a bit. He's the only good center fielder on the market and plays it really well so he'll have good floor value for a while.
 

Sampo Gida

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A good comp, aside from the fact that Bautista walked far more (career 14.1% to 8.0%), struck out less (18.7% to 25.2%), and was a more extreme flyball hitter (45.5% to 37.9%) and pull hitter (47.0% to 39.1%) with a gigantically lower BABIP (.264 to .341). Matt Kemp (7.4%, 23.3%, 35.8%, 42.1%, .338 on the above stats) still looks like a much better JDM comp to me--and a much less encouraging one.
Other than show that kemp is a more similar hitter you have not shown those stats have anything to do to aging. But since you have used them then how about Nelson Cruz instead of Kemp

8.5 BB 22.6 K 41.1 FB 309 BABIP, 39.1 Pull cruz
8.0 Bb 25.2 K 39.1 FB 341 BABIP 37.9 Pull JDM

JDM has a higher LD rate which explains the BABIP

Cruz has aged well as a hitter
 

Heating up in the bullpen

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Here's an interesting article about JDM and some "comparables" from the last 4 decades:

https://www.mlb.com/news/suitors-can-rely-on-elite-bat-of-jd-martinez/c-265126418
Based on those averages, looks to me like a 4 year deal for about $25M would be fair; 4 + 1 team option would be fine too. I would say a guaranteed 5 year deal at more than $24M AAV would be generous to the player.

In the age 34 season (5th year of a deal), only 6 of 21 players provided more than 2 fWAR. Three of those are steroid suspects (this season took place between 1990-2003). For a 4th player, Dave Parker, this was the only season out of the 7 looked at in which he earned more than 1 fWAR. The age 34 average for the 21 players in the study was 1.7 fWAR. The 5th year represents a real crap shoot. The only possible reason to go to a 5th year is to make up for the possibility of underpaying star performance in the first 4 years. (Average fWAR for all 21 players for the first 4 years, the age 30-33 seasons, was 3.0. Average fWAR dropped to 2.7 over 5 years.)
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Other than show that kemp is a more similar hitter you have not shown those stats have anything to do to aging. But since you have used them then how about Nelson Cruz instead of Kemp
Yup, that's a good ballpark comp. The odd thing is that Cruz looked, for his first couple of years after hitting 30 (i.e., Martinez's age), like he was going to decline pretty quickly, and then he righted the ship and has had a hellacious mid-30s. Kinda like someone else we know, although Ortiz was a bit older when his temporary dip happened.

I'm wondering what Lorenzo Cain's deal means for Martinez. It may bolster Boras's argument for a six-year deal, since Cain is a year and a half older. OTOH, it seems to tamp down the AAV ceiling, because Cain has been, if anything, the better player of the two overall. Granted that power gets paid better than defense and baserunning, it still seems hard to make a solid argument that Martinez should get as much as 150% of Cain's AAV, let alone more than that. So it seems like the number should be somewhere in the $20-$22M range. I would think that if Cain gets 5/80, then Martinez should get maybe 5/110 or 6/125.
 
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Plympton91

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Other than show that kemp is a more similar hitter you have not shown those stats have anything to do to aging. But since you have used them then how about Nelson Cruz instead of Kemp

8.5 BB 22.6 K 41.1 FB 309 BABIP, 39.1 Pull cruz
8.0 Bb 25.2 K 39.1 FB 341 BABIP 37.9 Pull JDM

JDM has a higher LD rate which explains the BABIP

Cruz has aged well as a hitter
Cruz is a confirmed user of performance enhancing drugs. Excuse me if I don’t believe he’s clean now either, rather than just one step ahead of the tests.
 

MikeM

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I'm wondering what Lorenzo Cain's deal means for Martinez. It may bolster Boras's argument for a six-year deal, since Cain is a year and a half older. OTOH, it seems to tamp down the AAV ceiling, because Cain has been, if anything, the better player of the two overall. Granted that power gets paid better than defense and baserunning, it still seems hard to make a solid argument that Martinez should get as much as 150% of Cain's AAV, let alone more than that. So it seems like the number should be somewhere in the $20-$22M range. I would think that if Cain gets 5/80, then Martinez should get maybe 5/110 or 6/125.
Placing JDM's per/year value there arguably ignores the $20m/per Carlos Santana just got. You also seem to be suggesting that the Sox now lower the reported offer already on the table.

I'd guess a minimum of $25m/per would still be in play once Boras finally climbs down from his mountain top. Still not sold our chances of ultimately walking out of this with a slow played and winning hand are as good as people here think though. Especially given that the only thing which seems firmly established right now is that nobody is willing to pay JDM $200m. Those phone calls elsewhere could play out differently if/when Boras starts conceding to a 5 year possibility (Team X decides to trade a player/outfielder for pitching and then signs JDM if his price gets that low, ect ect)
 

chrisfont9

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Other than show that kemp is a more similar hitter you have not shown those stats have anything to do to aging. But since you have used them then how about Nelson Cruz instead of Kemp

8.5 BB 22.6 K 41.1 FB 309 BABIP, 39.1 Pull cruz
8.0 Bb 25.2 K 39.1 FB 341 BABIP 37.9 Pull JDM

JDM has a higher LD rate which explains the BABIP

Cruz has aged well as a hitter
Cruz makes a bit more than $16m a year with the Mariners, hitting about 10-20 points lower than Martinez in OPS+.
 

Clears Cleaver

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If you have a 5-year $125m offer on the table for several weeks and don’t accept you either have no interest in signing, or are waiting for another offer that you know is coming. The reason that other offer might not have come is because the team is also trying to sign a different player which might impact the size offer you get from them.

Boras could also be simply pressuring the Sox, I suppose, thinking maybe fan base will riot or something. But I think they’ve already spoken given the yr/yr decline in ticket sales. Maybe he’s waiting for the Pats to win so fans attention will then shift to Sox. That all seems ridiculous. But so does thinking a guy who’s been sitting on his best (and maybe only) offer and has not signed will likely do so eventually.
 

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Boras waited till late May, got Stephen Drew 10m, bumped X off short, while we watched him bat .175 for 2 months until we traded him to the Yankees. So I don't know if its method to the madness or madness to the method, but dude usually gets what he wants.
 

RedOctober3829

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Boras waited till late May, got Stephen Drew 10m, bumped X off short, while we watched him bat .175 for 2 months until we traded him to the Yankees. So I don't know if its method to the madness or madness to the method, but dude usually gets what he wants.
The question is how much does JD Martinez have invested in this staredown? This is his only chance to be the focus of an offseason. Is he really willing to go into the season unsigned? I can't see that happening. He's eventually going to have to blink.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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I'm thinking that JD prefers the Dbacks, and he and Boras are just praying they make a better offer than they apparently have so far. Maybe the Brewers are interested in bringing Greinke back? Or AZ just decides to go for it and add to payroll. Still seems unlikely, but while the clock is ticking, there's still time. And since it doesn't seem like the Sox are going to spend that money elsewhere, he can probably safely wait at least another couple of weeks to see how this plays out before making a decision.
 

EvilEmpire

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I'm not sure what has been reported, but is it a certainty that the Sox are the only team around 5/125? Seems like a price point that isn't prohibitive compared to some of the early speculation.
 

Bigpupp

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What benefit does pulling the offer give the Sox? As of now, the Sox have a chance to get their guy at their price. If they pull their offer that goes away, and now another team gets him at at even better price.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Cruz makes a bit more than $16m a year with the Mariners, hitting about 10-20 points lower than Martinez in OPS+.
Don't know where you're getting that. Martinez' OPS+ for the past four years is 149. Cruz's is 147. And the difference is well under 10 whether you make it four years, three, or two (in fact with a three-year slice, Cruz comes out ahead, 151-148). The only time slice where Martinez has an advantage like you describe is the single year 2017.

It's true that Cruz is in the last year of his contract and that when he signed it, he was just one year removed from the worst three-year stretch of his mature career. Also, he was older than JDM, and there's been inflation since then. So JDM should get more. But almost $10M more? I'm dubious.

Placing JDM's per/year value there arguably ignores the $20m/per Carlos Santana just got.
Well, looking at Cain's and Santana's contracts suggests that either Cain's agent or the Phillies' GM has a lot of 'splainin' to do, because the better player is definitely getting the worse AAV here. The difference between five years and three explains some of that, but not all of it, I don't think.

Put it this way: Both sides now have a favorable comp to use in the Sox-JDM negotiations.

You also seem to be suggesting that the Sox now lower the reported offer already on the table.
I'm certainly suggesting they shouldn't raise it.
 

PaulinMyrBch

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The question is how much does JD Martinez have invested in this staredown? This is his only chance to be the focus of an offseason. Is he really willing to go into the season unsigned? I can't see that happening. He's eventually going to have to blink.
I don't either, just a reference to Boras really. I think he would be more willing to wait it out that JDM. If I'm a player, I want a normal beginning to my season, not working out at a training academy waiting for the phone to ring.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I don't either, just a reference to Boras really. I think he would be more willing to wait it out that JDM. If I'm a player, I want a normal beginning to my season, not working out at a training academy waiting for the phone to ring.
In spite of all the power Boras supposedly wields, he still works at the pleasure of his client. If Martinez wants to sign and get on with things, all he has to do is say the word. I can't see him sitting out just because Boras advises him to do so. If he's sitting, it's his choice.

I remember Jason Varitek after the 2008 season, on the advice of Boras, rejecting an arbitration offer from the Red Sox. He entered free agency and remained unsigned through late January and wound up contacting John Henry himself to initiate his return and ordered Boras to do a deal with the Red Sox. He ended up getting $5M for 2009 when the arb offer would have netted him $10-12M. He could have continued to sit and wait for an offer, but he got to a point where he just wanted a contract so he could play, and that's what happened.

Martinez is in a similar spot now. If he's still convinced (by Boras or not) that waiting is going to net him the best deal, he'll wait. But if he gets impatient, he's going to be the one to decide to either take the best offer on the table or go to his team of choice and take whatever they can give him.
 

BaseballJones

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What if DD said to Boras, look, every day from here on out that this goes, our offer goes down $250k/yr. So four days go by and the Sox offer goes from 5/125 down to 5/120, etc.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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What if DD said to Boras, look, every day from here on out that this goes, our offer goes down $250k/yr. So four days go by and the Sox offer goes from 5/125 down to 5/120, etc.
Boras would laugh in his face.

Seriously, it's not as though the Red Sox have Martinez hostage here. There are 29 other teams that would add him for the right price. If they start pulling tactics that really only serve to piss off Boras and Martinez, that not only increases the chances they go elsewhere even at a lesser return, but it also poisons the well for future negotiations with Boras clients (if not all free agents). There's a reason those kinds of things don't ever happen in free agent negotiations.
 

moondog80

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Boras would laugh in his face.

Seriously, it's not as though the Red Sox have Martinez hostage here. There are 29 other teams that would add him for the right price. If they start pulling tactics that really only serve to piss off Boras and Martinez, that not only increases the chances they go elsewhere even at a lesser return, but it also poisons the well for future negotiations with Boras clients (if not all free agents). There's a reason those kinds of things don't ever happen in free agent negotiations.
Right. Unless they have some other backup plan for the money that would have gone to Martinez (like signing Darvish), the best move is to just let the offer sit there.
 

geoduck no quahog

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Or, I think you agree, use it to extend their own kids...or bank it for a possible mid-season acquisition (or both).

I think we accept that adding JDM in lieu of a full time HR (or adding Darvish in lieu of Edrod) is not going to put the Red Sox in the same galaxy as the 2018 Yankees or Astors, so maybe it really is just "wait until next year".
 

In my lifetime

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I do think the RS should and probably are looking at other back up plans. Two that would be of interest would be to try to extend some of the Bs, basically whomever (if any) would give them a home team discount as compared to years of control left, etc or spend it on Darvish if significantly more reasonable value and try to win with superior pitching instead of adding a big bat. It would also give them the option of trading a pitcher for that big bat as well.

I also think that is a significant risk to JDM/Boras, because regardless of where he signs, if he loses a big $ suitor his price and leverage goes down. That holds especially this year with two of the biggest spenders - MFY and Dodgers probably sitting this one out.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I don't see them trying to extend any of the kids this year, not with them already being over the luxury tax threshold. Every extra dollar they spend from here on out costs them more than just that dollar.

It's one thing to spend an extra $25M in cap dollars for a Martinez or some other free agent and pay the resulting penalties, or adding needed players mid-season and paying extra penalties. It's another to spend extra money in cap dollars on players they already have locked in for 2018 and then have to pay penalties because of it.

If they could somehow, miraculously, sign any of their players to an extension without increasing their cap hit, then of course they should do it. But there's no sense in doing that now unless there's a significant discount given for future years that balances out the penalties this year.
 

BaseballJones

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Boras would laugh in his face.

Seriously, it's not as though the Red Sox have Martinez hostage here. There are 29 other teams that would add him for the right price. If they start pulling tactics that really only serve to piss off Boras and Martinez, that not only increases the chances they go elsewhere even at a lesser return, but it also poisons the well for future negotiations with Boras clients (if not all free agents). There's a reason those kinds of things don't ever happen in free agent negotiations.
But it appears, from the information we have at our disposal (which isn't much) that DD is fine with NOT signing Martinez. And so if he's fine moving on without Martinez, who cares if Boras laughs in his face.

As for future ramifications, do you think Boras is going to not negotiate with the Red Sox in the future, given that they are one of the biggest spending teams in all of baseball with a willingness to open their checkbooks? I don't think so.

And this can be explained as a one-off thing. Look, we've had this offer out there for months now...we've been very patient but we do need to move on if Martinez isn't interested. So this is our offer, and it's only going down from here....

Let Boras be pissed. He's not going to NOT explore the Red Sox with future clients just because he's butthurt. If he does, his clients should quickly be done with him.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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The problem is there is absolutely nothing to be gained by threatening to decrease the offer the longer it sits on the table. Nothing at all. Especially now, in January, when spring training doesn't open for a couple more weeks and the start of the season is two months away. One off or not, it would have every appearance of Dombrowski being an asshole for no reason whatsoever. That helps nothing.
 

Mighty Joe Young

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But it appears, from the information we have at our disposal (which isn't much) that DD is fine with NOT signing Martinez. And so if he's fine moving on without Martinez, who cares if Boras laughs in his face.

As for future ramifications, do you think Boras is going to not negotiate with the Red Sox in the future, given that they are one of the biggest spending teams in all of baseball with a willingness to open their checkbooks? I don't think so.

And this can be explained as a one-off thing. Look, we've had this offer out there for months now...we've been very patient but we do need to move on if Martinez isn't interested. So this is our offer, and it's only going down from here....

Let Boras be pissed. He's not going to NOT explore the Red Sox with future clients just because he's butthurt. If he does, his clients should quickly be done with him.
But this only makes sense if there's a Plan B in place that requires immediate attention. Otherwise there's no pressing need to make a decision - on Boston or JDMs part.

I don't see any evidence of a Plan B. The only other FA thats been linked is Nunez - and he can be signed regardless of JDM.
 

chrisfont9

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Don't know where you're getting that. Martinez' OPS+ for the past four years is 149. Cruz's is 147. And the difference is well under 10 whether you make it four years, three, or two (in fact with a three-year slice, Cruz comes out ahead, 151-148). The only time slice where Martinez has an advantage like you describe is the single year 2017.
Apologies, BRef has three lines of 166, 163, 168 for JDM but that's his 2017 breakout by team. Though a 20 point difference in the most recent, relevant year is nothing to sneeze at.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Sign Darvish, trade ERod for Domingo Santana?
One thing about Santana, FWIW--he has so far shown an extreme oppo tendency on fly balls. Nearly all his hard-hit balls to straightaway left are line drives that would probably go for doubles or even (since he is not apparently afflicted with speed) singles. And some of his most prolific FB power is in precisely the direction where power in Fenway goes to die. Five of his oppo home runs would have been in play in Fenway last year -- and Fenway is one of only two parks in the AL (the other being Kaufmann) where more than one of those HR would have been catchable.

That's not necessarily a reason not to covet him -- after all, we only play in Fenway half the time, and he's obviously a highly gifted young hitter regardless, and we sure as hell don't want the Yankees or Orioles to get hold of him -- but the fact remains that he won't be as good a hitter here as he would be almost anywhere else. So there's that.
 

JBJ_HOF

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Nearly all his hard-hit balls to straightaway left are line drives that would probably go for doubles or even (since he is not apparently afflicted with speed) singles.
Not true only 2 of his home runs were hit under 22 degree which is the cutoff for monster home runs.
 

grimshaw

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The only downside is that Santana probably wouldn't see much of the field And then you've moved one of your best pieces for an unproven, (though cost controlled) DH.

You would really have to bank on his break out being his new established level.

Regardless of whether they move E-Rod for anyone - if the price is reasonable for Darvish, I'd still be interested in him over JDM, since finding another cheap bat is a lot easier than finding an ace.
 
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bosockboy

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The only downside is that Santana probably wouldn't see much of the field And then you've moved one of your best pieces for an unproven, (though cost controlled) DH.

You would really have to bank on his break out being his new established level.

Regardless of whether they move E-Rod for anyone - if the price is reasonable for Darvish, I'd still be interested in him over JDM, since finding another cheap bat is a lot easier than finding an ace.
Kinda has a Arroyo for Wily Mo vibe to it.
 

sean1562

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Wily Mo's highest walk rate was 6.9%, while Santana hovers around 12%. That BABIP for Santana last year is pretty high, but a lot of hard contact as well. Def a gamble, but JD at 150 mil plus is too. Eduardo is always a guy who seems like he is on the verge of a breakout, so just depends on whether Yu/Santana provides more certainty than ERod/Martinez.
 
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