JDM

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jon abbey

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Teams do this all the time though. When the Yankees signed Damon, didn't Cashman give him a take-it-or-leave-it offer? In other words, Cashman said, "Here is what we're prepared to offer right now. If you leave, the offer won't be on the table anymore." And Damon took it.

GMs who are good at their job and don't want to be played as fools do this sort of thing at every negotiation. Boras, above everyone, should recognize this as SOP.
Yeah, I'm not saying JDM would be right to be mad about this (if this is what happened), just offering a possible explanation for his seemingly irrational reactions.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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There's a huge difference between an offer with a deadline ("we need your answer within 24 hours or it's off the table") and the concept of a "if you don't sign this week we're gonna lower the offer by X%". The former is S.O.P. The latter is S.O.B.
It's a negotiating tactic. I'm not sure how DD is being an SOB here. From past offseasons, we know that DD likes to have his team building done pretty early. Perhaps he read the market and told JDM that, "this is where I'm planning to go, if you don't take it, that's fine but it won't be here again. It will be lower."

JDM, on the advice of his agent, gambled assuming that there will be one team out there to go over what DD offered and lost. In negotiations, especially with a guy like Boras, you have to stick to your word or you're done. I don't blame DD one bit and I'm not sure how that makes him the asshole here.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Do we have any actual quotes from JDM, or are we still speculating on his mental state based on anonymous 2d-hand descriptions or what he has said or how he feels?

Also, if, as it looks, Boston and AZ are still talking with Boras about JDM, how has he been harmed by the fact that he hasn't yet signed with someone? Isn't it plausible that his plan is to sign by the end of this week, right before he would normally be heading off to spring training - at least as plausible as any other scenario being speculated on?
 

Jerry’s Curl

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If I’m Martinez, I’m pretty pissed off that I don’t have a deal by now with camp opening. He’s paying the top agent in the league that misread the market this year. I wonder if he wants to sign with Boston and Boras keeps telling him to wait? DD is not changing the terms of the deal unless another team comes in with a similar deal of 5 years or more.
 

snowmanny

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Who knows what is going on? Maybe the Sox gave an offer, but said come back to us before you take any other offer. That would be fair but it could also be potentially frustrating to realize your potential employer would be happy to give you more money, but won't do it because they really don't have to give you more right now. But again, nobody knows.

Cashman doesn't always do take-it-or-leave-it offers. He didn't make his best offer (or maybe any offer) to Teixeira until the other numbers were on the table and then he just beat it by 5-10%. That's another strategy.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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It's a negotiating tactic. I'm not sure how DD is being an SOB here. From past offseasons, we know that DD likes to have his team building done pretty early. Perhaps he read the market and told JDM that, "this is where I'm planning to go, if you don't take it, that's fine but it won't be here again. It will be lower."

JDM, on the advice of his agent, gambled assuming that there will be one team out there to go over what DD offered and lost. In negotiations, especially with a guy like Boras, you have to stick to your word or you're done. I don't blame DD one bit and I'm not sure how that makes him the asshole here.
Teams do that, but it's usually tied to something else objective to be a realistic and reasonable demand, like (a) we need to sign a relief pitcher too and need to know how much we'll have available, or (b) we'll sign someone else instead of you. As for (a), the Sox haven't signed anyone else, so that doesn't seem like a legit reason for reducing a prior offer (i.e. they still have the money they previously offered and nothing else has ostensibly changed). As for (b), the Sox haven't signed anyone else in place of JDM and Boras/JDM might correctly have determined that there isn't another FA who meets Boston's needs like JDM does.

The one thing they could/should reasonably fear is the possibility that Boston trades for a bat. That's harder for Boras to predict and represents actual risk for JDM of losing their deepest pocket suitor. But that still wouldn't explain why Boston would continue to express interest but at a lower price.

We have to remember that MLB FA is a very limited market, with very few participants. Most good GMs and agents do not want to burn bridges. It doesn't advance - and could actually harm - their future interests/dealings.
 

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I think the best way to look at this is to step back, pretend there aren't 20 pages of posts about virtually nothing happening, and look at this from JDM's perspective. There's all this speculation as to who's offered what and when and that they might be exploding offers that go down by percentages on an hourly basis, compounded biweekly. I think what's happening is that Boras/JDM realize that this is his only bite at the FA apple, and that sitting around and waiting until pitchers and catchers report might earn him another two or five or fifteen million bucks. All of those are huge, life changing numbers. If he signs for $125M when last week the offer was $120, Boras did his job.

None of us know what's going on, but in these scenarios I fall back to Boras' Razor: he's trying to get as much money for his client as he possibly can.
 

Tim Salmon

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Boras gets paid a cut of the overall contract, correct? So a two year deal from Arizona would be less appealing than a five year deal from Boston, even if the AAV is higher on a two year deal?
Yes, but his reputation for shaking every last dollar from the money tree is probably worth more to him than the $1.5-2.5 million extra that he'd get from one transaction.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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Teams do that, but it's usually tied to something else objective to be a realistic and reasonable demand, like (a) we need to sign a relief pitcher too and need to know how much we'll have available, or (b) we'll sign someone else instead of you. As for (a), the Sox haven't signed anyone else, so that doesn't seem like a legit reason for reducing a prior offer (i.e. they still have the money they previously offered and nothing else has ostensibly changed). As for (b), the Sox haven't signed anyone else in place of JDM and Boras/JDM might correctly have determined that there isn't another FA who meets Boston's needs like JDM does.
That's true, but it's also done if someone doesn't want to get into a bidding war.

Maybe DD thinks that JDM is good (he traded for him), but he's not *that* good; in other words the Red Sox can still do well in 2018 without him. In light of the other players that he has to sign (Sale, Betts, etc.) and the free agent crop next offseason, perhaps DD thought that JDM has a worth of x and maybe he'll go a bit over it in December. If JDM and Boras don't agree with that number then they're free to walk and get what they think that they can. If they want to come back to the Sox, DD will try to get him at a reduced price. Obviously, this could backfire on DD; but it hasn't so far.

It's negotiating chicken, only Boras has more at stake here than DD. DD can blink and hope that Hanley finds his stroke and if he doesn't, he can make a trade in the off season. Boras, on the other hand, has promised his player north of $200M and he's probably going to get half that and won't start spring training with his new team. All of this makes Boras look uneducated about the market.
 

Jerry’s Curl

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I think the best way to look at this is to step back, pretend there aren't 20 pages of posts about virtually nothing happening, and look at this from JDM's perspective. There's all this speculation as to who's offered what and when and that they might be exploding offers that go down by percentages on an hourly basis, compounded biweekly. I think what's happening is that Boras/JDM realize that this is his only bite at the FA apple, and that sitting around and waiting until pitchers and catchers report might earn him another two or five or fifteen million bucks. All of those are huge, life changing numbers. If he signs for $125M when last week the offer was $120, Boras did his job.

None of us know what's going on, but in these scenarios I fall back to Boras' Razor: he's trying to get as much money for his client as he possibly can.
I agree that Boras’ job is to get as much as he can for his client but if you’re JDM how long do you wait? If this goes into mid-March and Boston’s offer is still the highest do you take it or risk missing getting ready for the regular season? At that point, he becomes less of a desired asset if he misses games.
 

JimD

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My only concern is that the Sox finally get this done and the fans in general* just give him no rope whatsoever. If he performs, it'll go away because none of this really means much, but if he struggles at all, they'll use all this against him. It will be super annoying.

*"Fans in general" meaning WEEI callers and such, not as much here.
Performance matters in any case, but for that crowd (and many media types) personality matters also. Play the part right and you get rope. Fail to meet expectations of how a ballplayer should carry himself and you get the J.D. Drew treatment.
 

BigPapiMPD34

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Great move by Hazen to announce the use of the humidor now. He can postpone its use as a concession to JDM without adding any money to the club's offer.
Wouldn't that be the last thing Hazen wants to mention to JDM in negotiations as it will reduce HRs? Unless you are saying their plan is to announce the humidor addition, then change their minds and remove it just to make JDM happy. That won't happen though, as the humidor addition in 2018 has been in their plans for a quite a while.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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If I’m Martinez, I’m pretty pissed off that I don’t have a deal by now with camp opening. He’s paying the top agent in the league that misread the market this year. I wonder if he wants to sign with Boston and Boras keeps telling him to wait? DD is not changing the terms of the deal unless another team comes in with a similar deal of 5 years or more.
There's no way the bolded is true. The player runs the show. If he wants to sign somewhere, the agent does the deal, even if it's Scott F'n Boras. He can be pissed at Boras for misreading the market, but if Martinez wants this over with, it's on him to pull that trigger.

Case in point, and I feel like I've brought this up before, is Jason Varitek. Tek was represented by Boras his entire career. After the 2008 season, he turned down the Red Sox arbitration offer (the pre-cursor to qualifying offers) to enter free agency. Big miscalculation as there was no market for him. Varitek took the initiative, called John Henry to get the ball rolling, and told Boras to do a deal with the Red Sox whatever it took. It ultimately cost Tek $6-7M turning down the arbitration offer, but rather than sit out and wait for the phone to ring, he signed where he wanted for less than his agent told him was the going rate.

If Martinez is allowing himself to be led by the nose by Boras to hold out against his own desires to just sign and get to camp (whichever camp that is), then he's dumb as a rock. I don't believe that's the case.
 

PaulinMyrBch

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There's no way the bolded is true. The player runs the show. If he wants to sign somewhere, the agent does the deal, even if it's Scott F'n Boras. He can be pissed at Boras for misreading the market, but if Martinez wants this over with, it's on him to pull that trigger.

Case in point, and I feel like I've brought this up before, is Jason Varitek. Tek was represented by Boras his entire career. After the 2008 season, he turned down the Red Sox arbitration offer (the pre-cursor to qualifying offers) to enter free agency. Big miscalculation as there was no market for him. Varitek took the initiative, called John Henry to get the ball rolling, and told Boras to do a deal with the Red Sox whatever it took. It ultimately cost Tek $6-7M turning down the arbitration offer, but rather than sit out and wait for the phone to ring, he signed where he wanted for less than his agent told him was the going rate.

If Martinez is allowing himself to be led by the nose by Boras to hold out against his own desires to just sign and get to camp (whichever camp that is), then he's dumb as a rock. I don't believe that's the case.
I totally agree with you, but I think there are certain agents where the player may be more apt to pick up the phone and order that a deal get done than those who hire Boras. I'm sure JDM still gets to call the shots, but I think Boras has laid out a long term strategy that JDM agreed to well before this standoff, and that Boras has likely told him "remember when we talked about x, y, and z?...that's what we're dealing with. Be patient and trust what we're doing". I could totally see Boras, just by the structure of his client/agent expectations, being stronger than most and keeping those types of discussions to a minimum. But I'm truly guessing here. I'd love to know how often players tell agents to end the standoff and take less than the agent recommends.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I totally agree with you, but I think there are certain agents where the player may be more apt to pick up the phone and order that a deal get done than those who hire Boras. I'm sure JDM still gets to call the shots, but I think Boras has laid out a long term strategy that JDM agreed to well before this standoff, and that Boras has likely told him "remember when we talked about x, y, and z?...that's what we're dealing with. Be patient and trust what we're doing". I could totally see Boras, just by the structure of his client/agent expectations, being stronger than most and keeping those types of discussions to a minimum. But I'm truly guessing here. I'd love to know how often players tell agents to end the standoff and take less than the agent recommends.
I'm not saying that it isn't Boras leading the way strategically. I only quibble with the notion that Martinez is some sort of unwilling passenger on this journey. Yes, he's trusting Boras to steer him right and probably sticking to whatever game plan they laid out at the start of the off-season. But if at any point he's unhappy with where Boras is leading him or simply tired of waiting, I don't think he'll hesitate to put a stop to everything and sign a deal.
 

Rough Carrigan

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I think that when Andruw Jones was with the Braves and got to his first free agency he just wanted to stay with the Braves. But Boras just went into regular Boras mode and at some point, his father had to step in and tell him to cut the shit and quit trying to see if he can have his son leave town for a few dollars more and make the best deal with the Braves. That's the story that's out there, anyway.
 

Manramsclan

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At this point, I care less about where he signs, and more about this thread being over with.
 

uncannymanny

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And then there's the former teammate recruiting tactic:

Price tried to sell former teammate J.D. on Sox
Wait, I heard he hates Boston!

I’ve been an agent and manager, music not sports, but the concepts are mostly the same (and hold true in finance, or really any other representative profession). The number one rule is MANAGE YOUR CLIENT’S EXPECTATIONS. I never, and would never, tell a client they were sure to get the top end of what I could expect in a given market. If I did, and it similarly fell through to 50-60% of that I will 1000% guarantee the client would be pissed at ME, not the market. There’s no scenario in my mind where JDM is pissed and it’s at the team offering the most money. That’s just absurd on its face.
 

TheYaz67

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Wait, I heard he hates Boston!

I’ve been an agent and manager, music not sports, but the concepts are mostly the same (and hold true in finance, or really any other representative profession). The number one rule is MANAGE YOUR CLIENT’S EXPECTATIONS. I never, and would never, tell a client they were sure to get the top end of what I could expect in a given market. If I did, and it similarly fell through to 50-60% of that I will 1000% guarantee the client would be pissed at ME, not the market. There’s no scenario in my mind where JDM is pissed and it’s at the team offering the most money. That’s just absurd on its face.
Well, the problem for Boras is, he not only told his client he would get the top end of the market, he told the whole world as well. He could be, as discussed before, pressuring JDM to not take the current offer not b/c he has JDM's best interests in mind, but b/c of the need to get a big number so as to benchmark for other clients - if that is the case, then JDM needs to recognize it for what it is and get selfish and tell Boras to knock it off and just accept the best offer.... as others have said, the longer he misses out on "real" ST, the less attractive he is/the more you worry about a slow start....
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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It should be kept in mind that spring training is 6 weeks long primarily for the benefit of the pitchers. Hitters don't really need that much time to be ready for Opening Day (assuming full health). If Martinez is working out and hitting on his own, as most players do these days, he realistically could start camp with 2-2.5 weeks to go and be good for March 29.

Not that it is necessarily in his best interest to wait that long, but he could without doing much if any damage to his value/productivity this season.
 

uncannymanny

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Indeed, and in fairness to SB, he’s rarely lost that gambit, but boy this is a big, public whiff thus far.

If I was another agent I would be moving on his clients that are FA next year seeing who I might be able to pry loose.

On the other side, people speculating on the demise of SB, Superagent will be disappointed. He’s earned a lot of rope in the player world and this won’t turn many off from thinking he can do his normal thing.

It should be something really interesting to watch over the next 5 years or so. Gone are the advantages of the binders, not just with front offices, but with other agencies.
 

chawson

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Indeed, and in fairness to SB, he’s rarely lost that gambit, but boy this is a big, public whiff thus far.

If I was another agent I would be moving on his clients that are FA next year seeing who I might be able to pry loose.

On the other side, people speculating on the demise of SB, Superagent will be disappointed. He’s earned a lot of rope in the player world and this won’t turn many off from thinking he can do his normal thing.

It should be something really interesting to watch over the next 5 years or so. Gone are the advantages of the binders, not just with front offices, but with other agencies.
Has anybody left Boras Corp for another agency besides Cano?
 

TheYaz67

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True enough - he may have told JDM "no way you get more than $150M, but we are going to tell everyone we are shooting for the moon ($200M+)".
 

OCD SS

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The number one rule is MANAGE YOUR CLIENT’S EXPECTATIONS. I never, and would never, tell a client they were sure to get the top end of what I could expect in a given market. If I did, and it similarly fell through to 50-60% of that I will 1000% guarantee the client would be pissed at ME, not the market. There’s no scenario in my mind where JDM is pissed and it’s at the team offering the most money. That’s just absurd on its face.
Everyone seems to be assuming that JDM expects to get $210M based on Boras’s initial asking price. This seems silly based on the above, especially when you consider that most of his clients don’t end up signing for what he originally floats. I think that points to him being not only a disciplined negotiator, but also doing a good job of maintaining that discipline with his clients.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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True enough - he may have told JDM "no way you get more than $150M, but we are going to tell everyone we are shooting for the moon ($200M+)".
Why would Boras do that? And why would JDM agree with that plan?

I mean, athletes are an arrogant bunch and they need to be. They all think that they're worth at least a billion, so for one of them to say, "Yeah, let's tell everyone I'm worth $200M and when I get $150M, it'll be really cool!"

That's just bad PR. The public will think that the agent was hoodwinked and that the athlete settled for less than what was worth. Not only that, but the athlete's peers will think less of him too -- that he didn't have the stones to go all the way. That he caved. Management punked him out. And Boras would never hear the end of it. "Has super agent Scott Boras lost his fastball?"

The only people that this plan works out well for is the front office of the team who look like they got a premium player at a bargain level deal.
 

nvalvo

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Why would Boras do that? And why would JDM agree with that plan?

I mean, athletes are an arrogant bunch and they need to be. They all think that they're worth at least a billion, so for one of them to say, "Yeah, let's tell everyone I'm worth $200M and when I get $150M, it'll be really cool!"

That's just bad PR. The public will think that the agent was hoodwinked and that the athlete settled for less than what was worth. Not only that, but the athlete's peers will think less of him too -- that he didn't have the stones to go all the way. That he caved. Management punked him out. And Boras would never hear the end of it. "Has super agent Scott Boras lost his fastball?"

The only people that this plan works out well for is the front office of the team who look like they got a premium player at a bargain level deal.
The other person this works out for is Martinez, who — if it works — gets $150m instead of $120m or whatever.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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The other person this works out for is Martinez, who — if it works — gets $150m instead of $120m or whatever.
Right. But the perception is that he could have got $200m and he only got $150m. In other words, he left $50m on the table for some reason — and he lost.
 

Pozo the Clown

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...Gone are the advantages of the binders, not just with front offices, but with other agencies.
Speaking of the Infamous Boras Binders, here are some entertaining excerpts from the linked article below:

"Boras said Monday that he has sent a 75-page binder exclusively to MLB owners on behalf of Arrieta"

"...the [reported] asking price is in the ballpark of $200 million."

"...Imagine being a billionaire and having someone deliver a 75-page binder of facts on Jake Arrieta to you. The reactions likely vary from hysterical laughter to indignant dunking of the binder into the nearest trash bin. Then there are the teams interested in Arrieta. They likely have to look through the binder in order to be able to plausibly prove that they did read it all. So we're left picturing a billionaire assigning some intern to read it word-for-word and prepare a Cliff Notes version that they can memorize, all the while being incredibly annoyed at this homework assignment."

We may have arrived at a point in time when "Boras' Bloated Binders of Biblically Blinding Bullshit" TM are as useful as an 8-track tape deck.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-hot-stove-boras-has-200m-price-tag-75-page-binder-for-teams-in-on-jake-arrieta/
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Right. But the perception is that he could have got $200m and he only got $150m. In other words, he left $50m on the table for some reason — and he lost.
Boras has been doing this forever. If he gets JDM the biggest contract of this offseason, then THAT'S the story they'll be telling. JDM and Boras care more about maximizing his $ than whether Joe Fan thinks they got a good deal.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Speaking of the Infamous Boras Binders, here are some entertaining excerpts from the linked article below:

"Boras said Monday that he has sent a 75-page binder exclusively to MLB owners on behalf of Arrieta"
...
Is this an actual, physical binder? I thought I read a few years ago that he was sending these out on iPads now... Even a billionaire would appreciate a new iPad.
 
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"We may have arrived at a point in time when "Boras' Bloated Binders of Biblically Blinding Bullshit" TM are as useful as an 8-track tape deck."

Have you seen the price of 8-track tape players on eBay?
 

Pozo the Clown

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uncannymanny

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Everyone seems to be assuming that JDM expects to get $210M based on Boras’s initial asking price. This seems silly based on the above, especially when you consider that most of his clients don’t end up signing for what he originally floats. I think that points to him being not only a disciplined negotiator, but also doing a good job of maintaining that discipline with his clients.
Agreed, and to how this would be perceived...these guys all have agents. They know how the negotiation works. I bet they’re more surprised at how often Boras does get the asking price.
 

SydneySox

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Agreed, and to how this would be perceived...these guys all have agents. They know how the negotiation works. I bet they’re more surprised at how often Boras does get the asking price.
If anything is clear, it's that some of our members would have been far better agents for JDM, Arrietta and the rest than stupid Boras and his ridiculous wasting of millionaires' time.

I can't imagine any of this has to do with leverage and expectations. Boras is dumber than his clients.
 

uncannymanny

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The market mostly pays what the market will pay. Sure he’s held out and made hay here and there, but for the most part I’d bet he’s maybe worth an extra percent or two. IMO, most of Boras’ success has come from pumping these guys up in private and public. Like someone said upthread, everyone likes to feel wanted.
 

jon abbey

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IMO, most of Boras’ success has come from pumping these guys up in private and public.
His main successes have come from bypassing front offices and going right to very old owners and convincing them to sign ridiculous deals against the wishes of their front offices, like Prince Fielder to DET or half of Washington's roster. I don't know how much that will work anymore, Mike Ilitch is dead and Ted Lerner is 92 and probably not thrilled about Bryce Harper's almost certainly going to FA this year after Lerner has bailed out Boras more than a few times.
 

Hank Scorpio

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At this point, and much as I want the Red Sox to sign JD Martinez, part of me hopes the Sox trade for Abreu or someone, just to see Boras eat crow when AZ offers like 3/60.
 

iddoc

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The way things are going, or not going, I suspect JDM and Boras will wait until the first half of March to see if any injuries generate more bidders, as suggested upthread.
 
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