Nah. My continuing view is that Butler is a shit ton better than the likes of Bademosi and Richards, and he’s better than Rowe, and he played 98 percent of the defensive snaps all season (which was either the most or near most played by any Pats player), so not trying him when the D was getting lit up made no sense.
I don’t need higher math to make that point. It’s actually pretty elementary. Yep, Bill is Bill and I get that I’m just a fan, but I will continue to hope that I one day get an explanation for something that makes zero intuitive sense to me.
Hey Theo, mind if I take a crack at an explanation?
I think there are two primary reasons for Butler's benching. 1) Butler's limitations as a player and his availability in the two weeks up to the Super Bowl and 2) the challenges the Eagles offense presented and how Andy Reid style offenses have been torching the Patriots for a few years now. That (2) unique challenge is crucial contextual information.
Let's start with 2 and the Eagles offense:
Masco, SuperNomario, and others have explained how Andy Reid offenses have given the Patriots trouble over the past few years. I won't rehash all the details but in particular the Patriots struggled stopping the run against 11 personnel all year. They gave up about 6 yards per run. The Eagles were one of the best teams running the ball out of 11 personnel. In the Super Bowl the Eagles were in 11 personnel 43/72 plays. They ran 70% of the time out of 11 personnel and, to some degree, the Pats strategy of playing 3 safeties helped limit their gains (from 6 yards to 5.4 which is still bad). The Eagles excellent skill position players spread out would prove to give the Patriots fits via both the run and the pass. Why did the Patriots play with 3 or 4 safeties?
Going into the game we knew the front 5/6/7's deficiencies were going to put pressure on the secondary. The Patriots front 7 was mediocre and not particularly athletic by the time of the Super Bowl due to injuries and roster choices/trade-offs and that was especially noticeable with the linebackers. Their defensive line did not do well against the run (look at the talent gap between Pats front 4 and Eagles O-line) and did not generate much pass pressure. Their linebackers are not the most athletic in coverage. Worse, guys like Roberts bite on everything. Foles was 5-5 for 77 yards against Patriot linebackers. Going against an RPO and 11 personnel heavy team, where you are already at a disadvantage talent vs talent, you need linebackers who can defend against the pass and the run especially when you are not going to get much of a pass rush, AND your front 4 is, again, at a talent disadvantage. The Patriots did not have linebackers that could do that so they tried the next best thing.
Belichick responded to the linebacking problem by playing big nickel packages and using 3-4 safeties. DMC, Chung, Richards, Harmon lined up and played traditional LB roles at some points in the game. They also made the decision to have Chung cover the slot or Agholor. That added a traditionally strong safety run defender to the mix but kept Butler off the field. Unfortunately Chung gave up 5/7 targets for 70 yards.
Quick word on Gilmore and Rowe: The outside corners, after the switch were good. That switch happened later than I wanted but it didn't decide the game. Smith still has the top end speed to beat Butler vertically. I would not have played Butler over these two. I think Belichick indicated he feared that speed by initially putting Gilmore on him (although Pats often play their #1 CB against the opponent's #2).
Going into the game the big nickel defense made sense. In the game the only spot Butler could have played was in the slot if you do not want him against Smith or Jeffery. Given you are at a disadvantage and want size against the run it would make sense to play a safety there. Remember, the Eagles are still gashing you there, the front 5/6/7 is not helping so many times stopping the run will fall to the secondary.
That brings us to Butler.
Slot cornerback is a hard position to play and many traditional outside corners struggle with a move to the slot and/or won't be moved there. Slot corner and boundary corner are different positions and require different skill-sets and have different responsibilities. The Patriots experimented with Butler in the slot but he did not perform well there. PFF seems to back that up as he had a 128.5 opposing QB rating in 225+ snaps in the slot from 2015-2016. He is not a guy who has succeeded against slot receivers. Agholor is a super-athletic and slightly larger slot receiver who Butler, I think, would have struggled against. Agholor was in the middle of a resurgence and career year. Butler also would have had to defend the run, which at his size is a large ask. The Eagles run a lot to the edge so Butler would have been challenged.
Butler was having an inconsistent season, had several glaring mental errors against JAX the week before, was physically recovering from the FLU (weakening an already small player) and missed a lot of practices. So he was unprepared going into the game in a season where he struggled. With the time that Foles had and how spread out their attack was one blown coverage could easily be a huge chunk gain. I've read, but can't find it, that Butler struggled with the mental aspects of the game and that the Patriots had to simplify his role on the defense before. Either way you would be putting him against a very good slot receiver, with limited practice/preparation, in a role he struggles with and a role that has complicated responsibilities. Butler is already going to be a liability against the run. In addition to his deficiency against the run 1) with not being prepared to go against a complex offense, 2) in a role (slot corner) he is ill-suited for, 3) when the Patriots secondary is already going to be stressed due to the deficiencies up front, and 4) where a blown coverage or mental error can easily result in a huge play (as we saw, a lot, in the game), Belichick added up the potential positives and negatives and came to the conclusion that he was not a viable option against the Eagles.
Final note: Richards and Bademosi were targeted 4 times. Bademosi was targeted once and gave up a crucial 3rd down conversion (whiff) for 14 yards. Richards was 3-3 for 81 yards but his big blunder was against Clement who Butler was not going to cover.
I think if Butler plays and your base package for the game is Gilmore, Rowe, Butler, DMC, Harmon/Chung with the way the linebackers and defensive-line played the Eagles would have run even more and probably had even more success.
I do not believe the Patriots defense would have played materially better against the Eagles with Butler in the slot or up against Smith. Their talent-gap in the front and on the trenches doomed them from the start against the Eagles offense.