2018 NBA offseason thread

Eddie Jurak

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So you only had to match contracts when one or both were over the cap? Never knew that. Thanks.
If a team is over the cap, then it needs to salary match. If a team is under the cap, it doesn't (provided the salary coming in doesn't push it over)..
 

JakeRae

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So you only had to match contracts when one or both were over the cap? Never knew that. Thanks.
Basically, you can always complete a transaction if the team taking on more money finishes the transaction under the cap. (More generally, any trade where every team ends up with less salary or under the cap is always valid.)

It is only when a team will end the trade over the cap and is increasing their total salary that the rules really come into play.
 

Marbleheader

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Unless the Rose rule comes into play or the Biannual Terry Duerod exemption hasn't been used yet.
 

benhogan

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Basically, you can always complete a transaction if the team taking on more money finishes the transaction under the cap. (More generally, any trade where every team ends up with less salary or under the cap is always valid.)

It is only when a team will end the trade over the cap and is increasing their total salary that the rules really come into play.
unless a team invokes the large-scale Johnson release option.

for example, the Suns GM is about to exercise this option with Devin Booker.


 

bosockboy

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Ariza gone + Paul old + Tucker old + MCW sucks + Utah and OKC are really good + gimmicky offense that is increasingly solvable (well under 100 points in each of their last five games in the WCF) + who knows what’s happening with Capela and Mbah a Moute. If they can re-sign those two and do something good with the MLE, maybe they move up a spot or two.
Well Utah, who rolled OKC, didn’t come close to solving the gimmicky offense. They will keep Capela and replace Ariza, and that Game 7 is a complete coin flip with Paul in there.
 

lovegtm

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Ariza gone + Paul old + Tucker old + MCW sucks + Utah and OKC are really good + gimmicky offense that is increasingly solvable (well under 100 points in each of their last five games in the WCF) + who knows what’s happening with Capela and Mbah a Moute. If they can re-sign those two and do something good with the MLE, maybe they move up a spot or two.
With the exception of Ariza being gone, and assuming Capela is back, how does this same logic not apply to the Warriors?
 

lovegtm

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Well Utah, who rolled OKC, didn’t come close to solving the gimmicky offense. They will keep Capela and replace Ariza, and that Game 7 is a complete coin flip with Paul in there.
The "gimmicky offense" thing is a joke. The Warriors are good at D, and the Rockets probably win that series with a healthy CP3.
 

lovegtm

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Apparently IT is hammering out a contract with Orlando. I like that fit a lot: Magic get a legitimate PG to help the frontcourt develop, and the team sucks, so IT's defense doesn't matter.
 

Sprowl

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Apparently IT is hammering out a contract with Orlando. I like that fit a lot: Magic get a legitimate PG to help the frontcourt develop, and the team sucks, so IT's defense doesn't matter.
Izayer is being reincarnated as Mini Mouse.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Basically, you can always complete a transaction if the team taking on more money finishes the transaction under the cap. (More generally, any trade where every team ends up with less salary or under the cap is always valid.)

It is only when a team will end the trade over the cap and is increasing their total salary that the rules really come into play.
I might be having a brain fart, but how would a trade work where every team ends up with less salary? That doesn’t make sense.
 

InstaFace

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I might be having a brain fart, but how would a trade work where every team ends up with less salary? That doesn’t make sense.
You're not parsing the (complex) grammar there correctly. Trades are always valid where each participating team ends up either (A) being under the cap, or (B) having less salary than before the trade. So trades between teams where 1 team is over the cap, and the other isn't, can happen without matching salaries if the capped team is (net) shedding salary, and the uncapped team isn't going over the cap as a result of the trade.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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You're not parsing the (complex) grammar there correctly. Trades are always valid where each participating team ends up either (A) being under the cap, or (B) having less salary than before the trade. So trades between teams where 1 team is over the cap, and the other isn't, can happen without matching salaries if the capped team is (net) shedding salary, and the uncapped team isn't going over the cap as a result of the trade.
I fully understand how the process works, his wording makes it sound like ‘if both teams end up taking on less salary’, which is impossible, without the clarification that he meant ‘less than the cap limit’ and not ‘less net salary’. If that’s complex grammar than that’s why I wasn’t an English major
 

JakeRae

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I fully understand how the process works, his wording makes it sound like ‘if both teams end up taking on less salary’, which is impossible, without the clarification that he meant ‘less than the cap limit’ and not ‘less net salary’. If that’s complex grammar than that’s why I wasn’t an English major
There can be multi-team trades.

Also, I don't think using the word "or" as it is commonly used qualifies as particularly complicated grammar.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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There can be multi-team trades.

Also, I don't think using the word "or" as it is commonly used qualifies as particularly complicated grammar.
Dude, I’m not debating ‘or’ nor do I think that’s what Instaface was talking about. It’s quite simple as I see it. If any number of parties move salary, they can’t all* end up with less coming in than going out unless there’s some kind of reversed trade kicker. So when you say ‘where every team ends up with less salary’...

But whatever, we can move on.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Well Utah, who rolled OKC, didn’t come close to solving the gimmicky offense. They will keep Capela and replace Ariza, and that Game 7 is a complete coin flip with Paul in there.
Or as Kerr noted at the time, it might have ended in five with a healthy Iguodala.

2018 playoff net rating
1. GSW +11.4
2. IND +4.4
3. PHI +1.8
4. MIL +1.6
5. HOU +0.6

Yes, they'll replace Ariza, but he was also their #2 player last year in minutes per game after Harden, and a non-trivial part of the defensive versatility that made them so tough. Those kinds of versatile glue guys always play a bigger role than people think (viz. Iguodala).

I'm sure Morey has a trick or two left up his sleeve, with the MLE to work with and some pretty interesting talent still out there (Izayer? Napier? Hood? Beasley?). Not saying they'll backside badly (unless they somehow lose Capela), but I think they're due for a slight regression, whereas UTA and OKC both look likely to take a slight step forward.

With the exception of Ariza being gone, and assuming Capela is back, how does this same logic not apply to the Warriors?
The Warriors' core four are 28, 28, 29 and 30 (and Boogie is 27). Andre and Shaun are getting up there, but they're also curtailing their minutes accordingly. And I think the Warriors have a deeper group of young rotation players ready to step in in Bell, Looney, Cook and McCaw (likely to re-sign), whereas the Rockets' only young rotation player is Capela. (I'll call Damian Jones, Jacob Evans, Kendrick Dunn vs. Chinanu Okuako, De'Anthony Melton et al. a push till we see a bit more of them).

As far as offense: "gimmicky" was unfair, but I think it's fair to say it's the Rockets' O is more predictable and less diverse than that of the Warriors.

The Warriors may well coast through the regular season again next year; and who knows when Boogie will be back and in what form. But in terms of overall projected level I think the Ws have pulled away from the Rockets slightly so far this offseason. Who knows, though — that's why the play the games. No one really saw the 65-win Rockets coming at this time last year.
 
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mauf

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Or as Kerr noted at the time, it might have ended in five with a healthy Iguodala.

2018 playoff net rating
1. GSW +11.4
2. IND +4.4
3. PHI +1.8
4. MIL +1.6
5. HOU +0.6

Yes, they'll replace Ariza, but he was also their #2 player last year in minutes per game after Harden, and a non-trivial part of the defensive versatility that made them so tough. Those kinds of versatile glue guys always play a bigger role than people think (viz. Iguodala).

I'm sure Morey has a trick or two left up his sleeve, with the MLE to work with and some pretty interesting talent still out there (Izayer? Napier? Hood? Beasley?). Not saying they'll backside badly (unless they somehow lose Capela), but I think they're due for a slight regression, whereas UTA and OKC both look likely to take a slight step forward.


The Warriors' core four are 28, 28, 29 and 30 (and Boogie is 27). Andre and Shaun are getting up there, but they're also curtailing their minutes accordingly. And I think the Warriors have a deeper group of young rotation players ready to step in in Bell, Looney, Cook and McCaw (likely to re-sign), whereas the Rockets' only young rotation player is Capela. (I'll call Damian Jones, Jacob Evans, Kendrick Dunn vs. Chinanu Okuako, De'Anthony Melton et al. a push till we see a bit more of them).

As far as offense: "gimmicky" was unfair, but I think it's fair to say it's the Rockets' O is more predictable and less diverse than that of the Warriors.

The Warriors may well coast through the regular season again next year; and who knows when Boogie will be back and in what form. But in terms of overall projected level I think the Ws have pulled away from the Rockets slightly so far this offseason. Who knows, though — that's why the play the games. No one really saw the 65-win Rockets coming at this time last year.
I wish I could disagree with Sam, but aside from overrating a few of the Dubs’ depth guys, I think he’s on the money. The Dubs are built to coast through the regular season, and they will. The Rockets likely won’t win 65 again, and LeBron doesn’t want to be (and shouldn’t be) an 82-game monster anymore, so coasting should be good enough to secure the #1 seed.
 

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Orlando apparently in talks to bringing in Isaiah Thomas.

When the going gets weird...….
 

Royal Reader

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Weirdly good fit. IT4 is famous and entertaining, and Orlando needs to draw. He can shoot. He won't block the guard they'll need to draft when they realize they've maxed out on really long guys with questionable shots, and the Magic are probably willing to put a tribute video in 2019/20 in the contract.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Dwight Howard to the Wiz. Apparently the Dubs players voted him down but were okay with Boogie. That's gotta be a wake up call for Dwight, but it won't be.
Wall and Howard were former Fegan (RIP) clients. They seemed to enjoy hanging out with Yi Jianlian in this promo for their summer China trip a few years back. This has to be a better fit than Gortat who Wall was ready to go all Javaris Crittenton on last year.

https://nba.nbcsports.com/2013/07/02/dwight-howard-john-wall-speak-chinese-video/


Oooops missed that post.
 

Red Averages

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Weirdly good fit. IT4 is famous and entertaining, and Orlando needs to draw. He can shoot. He won't block the guard they'll need to draft when they realize they've maxed out on really long guys with questionable shots, and the Magic are probably willing to put a tribute video in 2019/20 in the contract.
Awesome
 

TripleOT

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HomeRunBaker

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wade boggs chicken dinner

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Who wrote that? I can't work the numbers to save them $116m on a buyout.
Looking at the numbers, I can't get there either. Using a payroll of $161M, I'm getting closer to $102M if he's bought out and stretched and $99M if he's just stretched so it's in the ballpark, but I haven't seen anyone publish their calculations.
 

nighthob

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Who wrote that? I can't work the numbers to save them $116m on a buyout.
I think if they stretch him it takes them into a lower level of the repeater tax. Based on them paying $4.50 tax per dollar on everything but the last $2.4 million I come out to about $115 million saved. (This is obviously a rough sketch because I don't have the patience for the moment to calculate the exact savings. Especially since stretching necessarily raises the luxury tax bite in the ensuing two years.)
 
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LondonSox

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There's something coming for the sixers that signing (that I also like as the ilyasova replacement) but they are several players over the roster limit.
I think bayless gets bought out, milton goes to a two way contract but they are still at 16 even then, with bolden still potentially to add....

Also wtf is orlando on? I have never understood a team plan less, except maybe the lakers this year lol
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I think if they stretch him it takes them into a lower level of the repeater tax. Based on them paying $4.50 tax per dollar on everything but the last $2.4 million I come out to about $115 million saved. (This is obviously a rough sketch because I don't have the patience for the moment to calculate the exact savings. Especially since stretching necessarily raises the luxury tax bite in the ensuing two years.)
Isn't the calculation incremental though? If this is correct, then wouldn't this be the basic calculation table:

Amount over (tax multiplier) = total for increment / running total (max):
  • $0-$5M ($2.50) = $12.5M / $12,500,000
  • $5-$10M ($2.75) = $13.75M / $26,250,000
  • $10-$15M ($3.50) = $17.5M / $43,750,000
  • $15-$20M ($4.25) = $21.25M / $65,000,000
  • $20-$25M ($4.75) = $23.75M / $88,750,000
  • $25-$30M ($5.25) = $26.25M / $115,000,000
  • $30-$35M ($5.75) = $28.75M / $143,750,000
  • $35-$40M ($6.25) = $31.25M / $175,000,000
So if OKC has a payroll of $161M (14 players) and the luxury tax is $123.7; they are $37.3M over with a corresponding a tax amount of $158,125,000.

If Melo is stretched, they save $9.3M, bringing payroll to 142.4 (not counting player needed to replace him), which means they are $18.7M over with a corresponding a tax amount of $59,475,000.

If Melo is bought out for less than the league minimum, then his contract would be $25.5M ($27.9 - $2.4). Stretched over three years would be a cap hit of $8.5M, thus bringing payroll (not counting player needed to replace him), which means they are $17.9M over with a corresponding a tax amount of $56,075,000.

If am making any errors, I'd appreciate hearing about them just because I'm interested at the moment how this is done.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Indiana quietly assembling quite the solid little roster — possibly in the top 4 with BOS, PHI, TOR?

 

BigSoxFan

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Indiana quietly assembling quite the solid little roster — possibly in the top 4 with BOS, PHI, TOR?

That's some nice value right there. They were #5 last year behind Cleveland who will obviously drop out of the playoff race so I think it's quite possible as long as Oladipo proves that his 2017 season wasn't an aberration. Turner needs to step it up. He wasn't very good in the Cavs series.
 

InstaFace

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Because there's no better place to ask, and it's come up with respect to several pending deals (including Melo here): What exactly is meant by a team "stretching" a player's deal? Wikipedia has been no help.

I understand the function in the NFL, where a signing bonus is amortized for cap purposes as being evenly distributed over the lifetime of the deal, so if you add years in a renegotiation you can sometimes reduce the cap hit that a player takes. But in the NBA, it's a contract's cash value each year that counts as its cap number, so there's less room to play games with cap hits. Yet people talk about "stretching" players in order to save against tax or whatever. Help me out here.
 

luckiestman

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Because there's no better place to ask, and it's come up with respect to several pending deals (including Melo here): What exactly is meant by a team "stretching" a player's deal? Wikipedia has been no help.

I understand the function in the NFL, where a signing bonus is amortized for cap purposes as being evenly distributed over the lifetime of the deal, so if you add years in a renegotiation you can sometimes reduce the cap hit that a player takes. But in the NBA, it's a contract's cash value each year that counts as its cap number, so there's less room to play games with cap hits. Yet people talk about "stretching" players in order to save against tax or whatever. Help me out here.
https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2017/12/hoops-rumors-glossary-stretch-provision.html
 

InstaFace

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A blurb about the stretch provision from an article about Carmelo and OKC, which serves as example:

Under the league’s collective bargaining agreement, teams can use the stretch provision to lessen a tax bill or cap hit when waiving a player. Teams are allowed to stretch the salary cap impact of the contract of waived player over two times the length of the contract remaining plus one year. Since Anthony has one year left on his deal, the Thunder could stretch it over three years (1x2+1).

So the $27.9 million owed to Anthony would be represented on the books as $9.3 million in 2018-19, $9.3 million in 2019-20, and $9.3 million in 2020-21. If the Thunder keep Melo around or waive him without using the stretch provision, his cap hit would be $27.9 million in 2018-19 and $0 going forward.
Edit: In response to InstaFace's post about the stretch which he moved...
OK, so it's simply mechanics for releasing a player, rather than tinkering with the contracts for a player you want to keep around.

Are the following true?

1) Other than option years, NBA contracts are all fully guaranteed, so releasing players offers no relief relative to the total obligations on the contract, other than the "stretch" ability to spread the payments and/or cap hit on remaining years over a longer period of time.
2) Only teams over the cap, and really only teams in the luxury tax, would generally prefer to stretch a released player, because of the multiplier-based savings to them. Teams under the cap would prefer to take cap hits upfront, both to hit the salary floor as well as to preserve cap optionality in future years (unless maybe it's right at the start of free agency).
3) Teams get no offsetting relief if another team signs a released player, you still owe every dime of what you promised them.
 

nighthob

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Isn't the calculation incremental though? If this is correct, then wouldn't this be the basic calculation table:

Amount over (tax multiplier) = total for increment / running total (max):
  • $0-$5M ($2.50) = $12.5M / $12,500,000
  • $5-$10M ($2.75) = $13.75M / $26,250,000
  • $10-$15M ($3.50) = $17.5M / $43,750,000
  • $15-$20M ($4.25) = $21.25M / $65,000,000
  • $20-$25M ($4.75) = $23.75M / $88,750,000
  • $25-$30M ($5.25) = $26.25M / $115,000,000
  • $30-$35M ($5.75) = $28.75M / $143,750,000
  • $35-$40M ($6.25) = $31.25M / $175,000,000
So if OKC has a payroll of $161M (14 players) and the luxury tax is $123.7; they are $37.3M over with a corresponding a tax amount of $158,125,000.

If Melo is stretched, they save $9.3M, bringing payroll to 142.4 (not counting player needed to replace him), which means they are $18.7M over with a corresponding a tax amount of $59,475,000.

If Melo is bought out for less than the league minimum, then his contract would be $25.5M ($27.9 - $2.4). Stretched over three years would be a cap hit of $8.5M, thus bringing payroll (not counting player needed to replace him), which means they are $17.9M over with a corresponding a tax amount of $56,075,000.

If am making any errors, I'd appreciate hearing about them just because I'm interested at the moment how this is done.
I was posting from my phone at a coffee shop so I was using $4.50 as a rough average to approximate the total, I wasn't going to waste the entire break on figuring out the exact dollar amount. And there are, as I noted, penalties for the ensuing two seasons for the money stretched. If I have some time tonight I'll do the actual numbers for 2019-2021 to figure out what the net is for the Thunder.