ALCS 2018 - Houston Astros

EllisTheRimMan

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Just chiming in to say the pathos and sheer idiocy in the game threads (and a bit on the main board) have been a disgrace. What this town and the fans are doing to a guy like Price (just to name 1) is pathetic.

Seriously, act like you’ve been here before!

Does anyone older than 30 need to be reminded of our last 5 ALCS Series? 2013 against DET, 2008 against TB, 2007 against CLE and 2003 and 2004 against the Yankees?

Gut wrenching back and forth series and all appeared lost especially early. Yet, except for the 2 losses after going the full 7 games and one with a Grady asterisk, the Sox pulled three of them out with some despised players going from goat to hero (names like, Lowe (2003 and 2004) Drew (2007) and Lackey (2013) come to mind).

The ALCS is hard you sissy-Mary’s. Over the last 2 decades the competition has been stiffer than the WS.

And to remind everyone, the Sox are now 4-2 so far against 2 teams with combined 2018 win totals of 203 (209 if you count playoff games).

You thought the Sox would just roll through this post season without some guys struggling and even really screwing up?

Like I said, act like you’ve been here before.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
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Encouraging bullpen signs still:

- Barnes: 4 g, 4.2 ip, 0 h, 0 r, 0 er, 3 bb, 3 k
- Brasier: 5 g, 4.1 ip, 1 h, 0 r, 0 er, 4 bb, 5 k
- Kelly: 2 g, 4.0 ip, 2 h, 1 r, 0 er, 0 bb, 2 k
- Porcello: 2 g, 1.2 ip, 1 h, 0 r, 0 er, 0 bb, 2 k
- Hembree: 3 g, 3.2 ip, 0 h, 0 r, 0 er, 4 bb, 2 k

These guys have given Boston a total of 18.1 postseason ip, giving up just 4 h, 1 r, 0 er, 11 bb, and 14 k. That's very very impressive.

Let's not talk about the discouraging bullpen signs for the moment. :)
 

mt8thsw9th

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Jul 17, 2005
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Encouraging bullpen signs still:

- Barnes: 4 g, 4.2 ip, 0 h, 0 r, 0 er, 3 bb, 3 k
- Brasier: 5 g, 4.1 ip, 1 h, 0 r, 0 er, 4 bb, 5 k
- Kelly: 2 g, 4.0 ip, 2 h, 1 r, 0 er, 0 bb, 2 k
- Porcello: 2 g, 1.2 ip, 1 h, 0 r, 0 er, 0 bb, 2 k
- Hembree: 3 g, 3.2 ip, 0 h, 0 r, 0 er, 4 bb, 2 k
How is 11 BB against 14 Ks in 18 1/3 IP encouraging, especially from a "tea leaves" standpoint? That's horrendous. I doubt you'd find many (non-extreme sinker) pitchers with ERAs south of 4.50 with those peripherals.
 

Adrian's Dome

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How is 11 BB against 14 Ks in 18 1/3 IP encouraging, especially from a "tea leaves" standpoint? That's horrendous. I doubt you'd find many (non-extreme sinker) pitchers with ERAs south of 4.50 with those peripherals.
The postseason is the epitome of small sample sizes and flukes.

Nobody's saying they could make careers out of those peripherals, but the much-maligned unit has gotten the job done to this point.
 

Average Reds

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Sep 24, 2007
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Just chiming in to say the pathos and sheer idiocy in the game threads (and a bit on the main board) have been a disgrace. What this town and the fans are doing to a guy like Price (just to name 1) is pathetic.

Seriously, act like you’ve been here before!

Does anyone older than 30 need to be reminded of our last 5 ALCS Series? 2013 against DET, 2008 against TB, 2007 against CLE and 2003 and 2004 against the Yankees?

Gut wrenching back and forth series and all appeared lost especially early. Yet, except for the 2 losses after going the full 7 games and one with a Grady asterisk, the Sox pulled three of them out with some despised players going from goat to hero (names like, Lowe (2003 and 2004) Drew (2007) and Lackey (2013) come to mind).

The ALCS is hard you sissy-Mary’s. Over the last 2 decades the competition has been stiffer than the WS.

And to remind everyone, the Sox are now 4-2 so far against 2 teams with combined 2018 win totals of 203 (209 if you count playoff games).

You thought the Sox would just roll through this post season without some guys struggling and even really screwing up?

Like I said, act like you’ve been here before.
For whatever reason, a handful of folks decided that it was more satisfying to root for failure so they could blast Price than it was to root for the Red Sox.

I do understand that each of us deals with anxiety in different ways, but a game thread should not feel like a meeting of the Dan Shaughnessy fan club.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
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Jul 15, 2005
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How is 11 BB against 14 Ks in 18 1/3 IP encouraging, especially from a "tea leaves" standpoint? That's horrendous. I doubt you'd find many (non-extreme sinker) pitchers with ERAs south of 4.50 with those peripherals.
The postseason is the epitome of small sample sizes and flukes.

Nobody's saying they could make careers out of those peripherals, but the much-maligned unit has gotten the job done to this point.
Honestly this is just basically a continuation of the regular season for the pen. Too many walks, but they were mostly hard to hit. Games like game 2 of the MFY series happened during the regular season and happened in the playoffs. They survived both.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
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How is 11 BB against 14 Ks in 18 1/3 IP encouraging, especially from a "tea leaves" standpoint? That's horrendous. I doubt you'd find many (non-extreme sinker) pitchers with ERAs south of 4.50 with those peripherals.
Because it sounds like the Sox' coaching staff has been encouraging the pitching staff to pitch to the "blue" spots in hitters' heat maps, and if they're gonna miss, miss out of the strike zone rather than in the strike zone where pitches can be crushed. The result is more walks but fewer XBH (especially homers). They were apparently upset with Workman because he missed in the zone and got crushed, instead of missing off the plate. So this is their strategy, not necessarily poor pitching by these relievers.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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The Sox strategy really seems to boil down to this: There are no easy/gimme pitches in the playoffs, especially against these teams. Don't do stupid stuff like assume they'll lay off a get-it-over first pitch strike, or throw a crushable pitch on 3-0, cuz, you know, they'll crush it. One base (walk) is less than 4 (tater).

Makes perfect sense, and it's not really revolutionary. But at some point, and more often than not, you DO actually have to throw some good strikes in the blue spots. You have to show both command and control. Putting two Astros on every inning, as they basically did in Game 1, is not a recipe for short or long term success. Game two was better. Not sure there's much to do differently, other than use your best pitchers, continue to play the match-ups, and hope everyone pitches as well as they can (if not better!).
 

timlinin8th

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Watched MLB network last night after getting home from the game because I was still buzzing with excitement and couldn't sleep, and Harold Reynolds showed video showing this as well. The Sox have been pitching the Astros' 1-4 hitters heavily to the outside part of the plate, trying to diminish their power and make them beat them going the other way, and if they miss they miss away as well. They'll occasionally throw something inside to keep them honest but then its all away away away again.
 

Reverend

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Oh my God, is there no refuge from the Bend But Don't Break Defense Discussion?? It's followed us to the Main Board!!

For whatever reason, a handful of folks decided that it was more satisfying to root for failure so they could blast Price than it was to root for the Red Sox.

I do understand that each of us deals with anxiety in different ways, but a game thread should not feel like a meeting of the Dan Shaughnessy fan club.
Maybe we should have Game Thread game threads so the people who need to can vent? :fonz:

The Sox strategy really seems to boil down to this: There are no easy/gimme pitches in the playoffs, especially against these teams. Don't do stupid stuff like assume they'll lay off a get-it-over first pitch strike, or throw a crushable pitch on 3-0, cuz, you know, they'll crush it. One base (walk) is less than 4 (tater).

Makes perfect sense, and it's not really revolutionary. But at some point, and more often than not, you DO actually have to throw some good strikes in the blue spots. You have to show both command and control. Putting two Astros on every inning, as they basically did in Game 1, is not a recipe for short or long term success. Game two was better. Not sure there's much to do differently, other than use your best pitchers, continue to play the match-ups, and hope everyone pitches as well as they can (if not better!).
I actually wonder if the Red Sox fan psyche is a bit distorted not just by the championship drought but by the fact that, since 2003, when the team wins it is often in decisive, exciting, or otherwise epic dramatic fashion. So our sense of how a team wins a playoff series may be out of whack too.

So yeah, this post crystallized for me some thoughts that... we don't have a large sample size on playoff games with the Red Sox over the last 15 years and it may well be distorted as much by greatness as the previous lack thereof so it's intense, but it's really not that many serieses (Is that a word?) and there may be some failing to account for the basic fact: This is hard.

There have been two games between what may be two historically great teams. Those teams split those games.

I've seen every imaginable interpretation up to and including that maybe either one or both of the teams isn't as good as people think, a possibility of which I imagine Pedroia might have to be physically restrained if he heard in person.

If this seems weird to anyone, well, what the hell were people expecting?
 

joe dokes

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Honestly this is just basically a continuation of the regular season for the pen. Too many walks, but they were mostly hard to hit.
Put another way, who would feel better if the 1st and 2nd situation came about because of singles instead of walks? Walks feel worse, but they aren't. (Now if they give up walks AND hits, there's a problem.)
 

santadevil

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All things considered through two games, honestly, I feel pretty good about the series. The lack of respect, or confidence the media has in the Sox having any shot at winning this series is pretty shocking to me. To listen to them, you'd think the Sox were an 88 win team that snuck in to the playoffs. A few thoughts:
  • First off, the Sox could have easily won game 1 vs Verlander (to be fair, they also could have easily lost both games) despite a not very good at all Chris Sale. They hit Cole very well. Splitting against their two aces is what you hope for. To expect to take both is silly.
  • The Sox pen thus far - minus Kimbrel - have actually been very solid.
  • Price did not pitch great, but people love to shit on him it seems. Granted, his line is not a good one, but again a bad play by X led to having runners on, instead of being out of the inning, and Springer hit a good pitch (weakly) in the best possible location to score the 2 runs. Even the HR to Marwin was not a bad pitch. His velocity looked good, and this is a terrific Astros lineup. Not saying he deserves praise by any means, but he really did not pitch that badly.
  • The walks by everyone are infuriating, but apparently that is the actual game plan
  • The Astros are going to throw Kuechel, Morton and presumably Verlander in the next three games. I really do not see why the Sox cannot take at least one of these games. SSS, but there are more than a few hitters on the Sox who hit Kuechel well, and Morton the Sox are at a .953OPS against as a team (again, ~80 at bats, so SSS). Is it crazy to think the Sox can take 2 of 3 there? I don't think so at all.
  • JD Martinez needs to start hitting, and soon.
  • We need robot umps. The home plate umps have been awful in the first two games.
I still think the Sox take this series, in 6 or 7 games.
I'm with you on all of this, especially the robo-umps

Also wondering why TBS isn't showing the K-Zone? I don't mind that it's not there during play, but for anything close, they only showed it a couple times and my eyes and other people are seeing the same. The impact have been shit behind the plate calling balls ans strikes
 

The Talented Allen Ripley

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TBS shows a K-zone on every pitch, but it's just four little corners that tend to line up with the catcher's shoulders and knees when he's in a crouch. I can see it fine, but my wife couldn't, she just thought it was part of the catcher's chest protector and kneepads.
 
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Mighty Joe Young

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I'm with you on all of this, especially the robo-umps

Also wondering why TBS isn't showing the K-Zone? I don't mind that it's not there during play, but for anything close, they only showed it a couple times and my eyes and other people are seeing the same. The impact have been shit behind the plate calling balls ans strikes
Only noticed the K-Zone a couple of times .. and really started to miss it. Found the lack of a radar gun reading in the TBS score box more concerning. I don’t particularly care about a pitcher lighting up the gun , but I do “use” the gun reading to help figure out the pitch types.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Verbiage stuff...

Rev: "Series" is both singular and plural, like moose or jeans. I just looked this up the other day, thinking about the World Series...

Allented: Is the "K zone" you're referencing the two-dimensional box that just shows horizontal and vertical boundaries or the three-dimensional cube that they turn to show in blue the area inside the cube when the pitch crosses part of the strike zone? I've been missing the latter (which I like a lot more). Maybe they've shown it sometimes, but there was a low pitch late yesterday (from Porcello maybe?) that looked a LOT like a strike, and there was no graphic showing whether it caught part of the bottom of the zone.
 

DeadlySplitter

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Bregman is good but he seems to be an overconfident jerk at the moment. would love to keep him down all series.
 

soxhop411

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Cora says Similar lineup to the one they had vs CC

SO kinsler likely in as well
 

streeter88

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Ok .. we seem to be missing the graphic on the international (meaning Canadian) version of the TBS broadcast. It’s odd because they had it in the ALDS ..
Didn't have it in Australia either. The announcers did mention the speeds a few times, and they were always 2 mph hotter than the radio play by play from WEEI which I get through mlb.com. Once synchronised though, I muted the TBS losers.
 

BroodsSexton

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There have been two games between what may be two historically great teams. Those teams split those games.

I've seen every imaginable interpretation up to and including that maybe either one or both of the teams isn't as good as people think, a possibility of which I imagine Pedroia might have to be physically restrained if he heard in person.

If this seems weird to anyone, well, what the hell were people expecting?
Honestly, the weird thing is that we enjoy a game or a series at all. With two excellent, evenly-matched teams like this, we are essentially watching a battle of 7 coin-flips, within which there are 9 near coin flips, and then—within that—a series of random events that are defined in part by talent, effort, and luck, which are interesting, impressive, or enjoyable to observe. Watching the ball travel along the ledge in left field the other night was easily as engaging as an amazing jump and diving catch by JBJ, or Christian Vazquez hitting a ball over the fence that he has no business getting to.

It is fundamentally an attribution error to enjoy a game of baseball or have any interest at all in the outcome of a series like this. And yet, I will watch an entire game as if the outcome has meaning and I will root for my team to win a series as if it were something more than rooting for “tails” at the beginning of a football game, not knowing who’s calling the flip.
 

santadevil

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Ok .. we seem to be missing the graphic on the international (meaning Canadian) version of the TBS broadcast. It’s odd because they had it in the ALDS ..
I noticed a couple screen jumps too and I think they are over writing the entire screen to show the Canadian advertising on the back green screen behind the catcher. I've noticed the Baseball Canada logo back there a lot
 

shepard50

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Nov 18, 2006
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Honestly, the weird thing is that we enjoy a game or a series at all. With two excellent, evenly-matched teams like this, we are essentially watching a battle of 7 coin-flips, within which there are 9 near coin flips, and then—within that—a series of random events that are defined in part by talent, effort, and luck, which are interesting, impressive, or enjoyable to observe. Watching the ball travel along the ledge in left field the other night was easily as engaging as an amazing jump and diving catch by JBJ, or Christian Vazquez hitting a ball over the fence that he has no business getting to.

It is fundamentally an attribution error to enjoy a game of baseball or have any interest at all in the outcome of a series like this. And yet, I will watch an entire game as if the outcome has meaning and I will root for my team to win a series as if it were something more than rooting for “tails” at the beginning of a football game, not knowing who’s calling the flip.
This is excellent. It's also the antidote to team love, which makes it no less insightful.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
I actually wonder if the Red Sox fan psyche is a bit distorted not just by the championship drought but by the fact that, since 2003, when the team wins it is often in decisive, exciting, or otherwise epic dramatic fashion. So our sense of how a team wins a playoff series may be out of whack too.
Could this be recall bias, though? We remember the heroics but not the slog--the finish line but not Heartbreak Hill.

The Sox have played in a seven-game ALCS 9 times before this year. We've won it four times: in 1986, 2004, 2007, and 2013. We haven't ever swept, nor have we even been ahead 3-1 after four games. In 1986, 2004, and 2007, we were down 3-1. In 2013, we were tied, but had only scored 10 runs in the four games, and had just lost 7-3 to Doug Fister.

So in fact, struggling in the ALCS is normal for us. It's what we do.
 

InsideTheParker

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Honestly, the weird thing is that we enjoy a game or a series at all. With two excellent, evenly-matched teams like this, we are essentially watching a battle of 7 coin-flips, within which there are 9 near coin flips, and then—within that—a series of random events that are defined in part by talent, effort, and luck, which are interesting, impressive, or enjoyable to observe. Watching the ball travel along the ledge in left field the other night was easily as engaging as an amazing jump and diving catch by JBJ, or Christian Vazquez hitting a ball over the fence that he has no business getting to.

It is fundamentally an attribution error to enjoy a game of baseball or have any interest at all in the outcome of a series like this. And yet, I will watch an entire game as if the outcome has meaning and I will root for my team to win a series as if it were something more than rooting for “tails” at the beginning of a football game, not knowing who’s calling the flip.
So true. Not to mention the unevenness of the umpiring. I don't think you feel this way, but I wish now I had never gotten addicted to watching.
 

HriniakPosterChild

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It's the off days for travel and the time between series, of course. I don't like it either. I think the original genesis of the seven-game series was that it was essentially two trips through a team's rotation.
Pitching rotations aren't that old, according to Baseball Prospectus:

This is an important point to understand: the controversy over the use of a five-man vs. a four-man rotation makes it easy to forget that, prior to around 1960, there was no such thing as a rotation. In the 1950s, Casey Stengel routinely saved his best pitcher, Whitey Ford, to pitch against the best teams in the American League.
 

HriniakPosterChild

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Also wondering why TBS isn't showing the K-Zone?
(Consider this an educated guess.)

It probably is due to the wording of a "method and apparatus" patent for the original K-Zone technology that was first shown on ESPN umpteen years ago (and YES, and perhaps other RSNs, use now during regular season games). Other networks seem to use a "Brand X" system for the presentation of the data, and I'd bet a root beer that the original K-Zone patent covered the presentation of the data as a live graphic floating over the plate with baseball-sized circles appearing in real time to indicate where the pitches entered the strike zone.

Brand X is what we see on NESN, with the information presented in rectangle inelegantly displayed on the side of the live video. Brand Y is what TBS is using, with the four little corners floating over the plate and the pitches presented as dots instead of baseball-sized hollow circles. I don't know if there is a Brand Z.

If the international broadcasts don't show the location of the pitch within the strike zone, my guess is there is no patent yet issued for Brand Y in some important foreign countries, and the inventors will not allow "public use" of their invention in those countries and risk losing patent protection.