2018-19 Offseason Thread

Murderer's Crow

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Mark Feinsend says the Red Sox and Astros are "two of the leading contenders" for Eovaldi. Sounds like he could be close to making his decision.
There seems to be some speculation from a handful of unreliable sources that Corbin is looking to sign very quickly. If those rumors are true, I wonder if that slows down the Eovaldi hot stove while the teams who lose out on Corbin get involved
 

joe dokes

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There seems to be some speculation from a handful of unreliable sources that Corbin is looking to sign very quickly. If those rumors are true, I wonder if that slows down the Eovaldi hot stove while the teams who lose out on Corbin get involved
I'd guess there are some guys who just want it over by Christmas, and are willing to forego an attempt at every last dollar (as opposed to getting nearly every last dollar like they will anyway).
 

BaseballJones

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Brewers will non-tender 2b Schoop. That means he's a FA. Not that I expect Boston to go after him, but he's still a pretty good player. Entering his 27-year old season, just one year ago he had 32 hr, 105 rbi, a 124 ops+, and 5.2 bWAR. He'd be a heck of an upgrade at 2b for the Sox, assuming Pedroia is done. I also wonder if the Yankees would sign him instead of Machado, while moving Torres to SS.
 

jon abbey

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Brewers will non-tender 2b Schoop. That means he's a FA. Not that I expect Boston to go after him, but he's still a pretty good player. Entering his 27-year old season, just one year ago he had 32 hr, 105 rbi, a 124 ops+, and 5.2 bWAR. He'd be a heck of an upgrade at 2b for the Sox, assuming Pedroia is done. I also wonder if the Yankees would sign him instead of Machado, while moving Torres to SS.
I still think NY needs two infielders because they really can't leave Andujar at 3B, so I am hoping for the Orioles reunion of Machado/Schoop in the Bronx.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Brewers will non-tender 2b Schoop. That means he's a FA. Not that I expect Boston to go after him, but he's still a pretty good player. Entering his 27-year old season, just one year ago he had 32 hr, 105 rbi, a 124 ops+, and 5.2 bWAR. He'd be a heck of an upgrade at 2b for the Sox, assuming Pedroia is done. I also wonder if the Yankees would sign him instead of Machado, while moving Torres to SS.
There's absolutely no chance the Sox sign or trade for a 2B this winter. Pedroia is going to be given every chance to show he's healthy and can once again assume the starter role. However, there's a fair chance that by July Pedroia will again be a question mark and the team will be in the market for Kinsler 2.0. What this Schoop news means vis a vis the Red Sox is that he will likely end up signing a multi-year deal this winter and remove himself from the list of potential mid-season 2B rentals.
 

DeadlySplitter

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yeah, as much as we want more stability at 2B, our limited cap room plus Pedey's contract means we're going to have to live with it.

that cap room needs to go to refortifying the pitching, at least for 2019. plenty of offense elsewhere.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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Yeah, maybe it's a product of circumstances, but "marginal upgrade of a position where they already have someone" is the type of move Dombrowski hasn't really made very often during the offseasons of his Sox tenure (on the position-player side of things, at least). So many of the suggestions here are variations on that theme, and they all strike me as pretty unlikely.

Midseason is a different story, of course, but that's obviously getting ahead of ourselves.
 

DeadlySplitter

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there's more non-tenders than I expected this year. some interesting buy-low pitchers are out there if Eovaldi and/or Kelly are not resigned, such as Mike Fiers, Blake Parker, Matt Shoemaker, Brad Boxberger, Dan Jennings.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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there's more non-tenders than I expected this year. some interesting buy-low pitchers are out there if Eovaldi and/or Kelly are not resigned, such as Mike Fiers, Blake Parker, Matt Shoemaker, Brad Boxberger, Dan Jennings.
Boxberger is a guy the Sox should look into. That’s kind of shocking
 

Plympton91

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Given his past excellence but also that he is not young and is coming off a very good not great season and mediocre postseason, he should be setting his ceiling at a couple mil past Chapman and settling for a bit less (4 yrs or fewer $). 6 years won't fly....
He was flat out horrible in the post season. Anything else is sugar coating it. Gary Sanchez misses a game winning home run by 2 feet, and Benintendi’s amazing catch bailed him out a second time against the Astros. Absent those two lucky outcomes, he’s among the worst Billy Goats in Red Sox postseason history.

I would be worried I was getting the 2012 and later vintage Daniel Bard if I signed him this winter.
 

Plympton91

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I'd guess there are some guys who just want it over by Christmas, and are willing to forego an attempt at every last dollar (as opposed to getting nearly every last dollar like they will anyway).
Given how many really good players were holding their hat in their hand begging for a contract last February and March, I’m surprised more of the mid tier players haven’t taken team friendly deals yet. The agents should know that any wart is a much bigger hit to market value at this point. If I were someone like Grandal or Kimbrel coming off horrible postseasons, id be telling my agent to find me the best deal he can get by next Thursday and be done with it before the meeting start and other trades and signings cause some current suitors to drop out.

The Nats getting Gomes just threw some ice cubes into the market for Grandal and Ramos
 

moondog80

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True, but you can overdo it. The way Boras handles Stephen Drew’s free agency is a good example — Boras floated a $100 million ask, the Cardinals (the only team that desperately needed a shortstop) moved quickly to lock up Jhonny Peralta for 4/54, and no other suitor ever materialized.

A club that might contemplate committing tens of millions to a closer is, by definition, a club with no good closing options on hand. I think some of those potential suitors will hear the nonsense Dave Meter is spouting and decide they can’t afford to watch other options fall off the market while they wait for him to return to reality.

I guess the logic is that Jansen and Chapman got 5 years, so ask for 6 and settle for that. But you may be right -- Kimbrel's value isn't as high as those guys, in fact I could see him being a guy who gets stuck in purgatory because of the QO.
 

DeadlySplitter

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Craig was terrible but the postseason is the epitome of small sample size.

the overall 2018 numbers paint enough of a picture of concern that we don't need to bash him again and again on the postseason.

I hope you're right, and I hope we take advantage.
we just kept Leon and Swihart. I guess you can dump them later, but once again I don't expect any moves at C.
 

moondog80

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Craig was terrible but the postseason is the epitome of small sample size.

the overall 2018 numbers paint enough of a picture of concern that we don't need to bash him again and again on the postseason.


we just kept Leon and Swihart. I guess you can dump them later, but once again I don't expect any moves at C.
I don’t either, but if Ramos or Grandal drop to a ridiculous price, we have to take advantage.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Craig was terrible but the postseason is the epitome of small sample size.

the overall 2018 numbers paint enough of a picture of concern that we don't need to bash him again and again on the postseason.


we just kept Leon and Swihart. I guess you can dump them later, but once again I don't expect any moves at C.
It wasn't just the post-season though. It was the post-season in 2017... and the last month of the regular season in 2018. He's at the age where he'll likely start to trend downward even more than he did from 2017 to 2018. I'm fully confident the Sox aren't going to be dumb and sign him for anything even close to what he's' hoping to get.
He'll realistically end up with a 3/45 deal. Short sample sizes, blah blah blah..... when the spotlight is on and the brightest... those short samples are seen by everyone and they can make or break a market. Eovaldi is the current beneficiery of those SSS, Kimbrel is on the losing side. That's just how it works... reading the tea leaves of those SSS can make all the difference.
 

Rasputin

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there's more non-tenders than I expected this year. some interesting buy-low pitchers are out there if Eovaldi and/or Kelly are not resigned, such as Mike Fiers, Blake Parker, Matt Shoemaker, Brad Boxberger, Dan Jennings.
God help me, the one non-tender I really want is Billy Hamilton. It's possible that Dave Roberts ruined me.
 

koufax32

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God help me, the one non-tender I really want is Billy Hamilton. It's possible that Dave Roberts ruined me.
Right there with you...if the current payroll was around $190m. It would be awesome to have a base path weapon like that coming off the bench. Fortunately, BOS doesn’t need a late game defensive replacement in the OF which would add to his value.
 

Martin and Woods

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Ha, good to hear I'm not the only one with the irrational pull toward Hamilton! Every year after our (NL-only) fantasy-league draft, I'm left mumbling to myself, "Why is Billy Hamilton on my roster AGAIN?" Although I finally won our league, he still rode the bench most of the season because his offensive skills, outside of the bags, are so atrocious. If only you could stash him in AAA all summer, then bring him up for October when his extremely-specialized skill set (should a single item be described as a "set"?) becomes so much more valuable.
 

StuckOnYouk

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Great to hear. His performance against top offensive teams through the playoffs and the Yankees all year is too tough to overlook. Especially with question marks in the rotation after 2019.

If the Sox sign Eovaldi are they basically committing to going over the highest threshhold next year? If so, do they just say F it and sign 2 of 3 relievers - Kelly, Robertson, Britton?
 

jon abbey

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I think the Astros might be going after Eovaldi hard too, he is a Texas boy from Astros advisor Nolan Ryan's hometown, and they have a few open spots in the rotation currently.
 

StuckOnYouk

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I think it was Feinsand who said Boston and Houston were the two leaders.
If I’m Boston I go all in on trying to win it again in 2019
2020 could lead to a lot of change
 

jon abbey

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If the Sox sign Eovaldi are they basically committing to going over the highest threshhold next year? If so, do they just say F it and sign 2 of 3 relievers - Kelly, Robertson, Britton?
BOS is around $225M already, right? I have NY ending up around $240-$250M ($246M is the highest threshold this year) and I expect BOS to be higher.
 

DeadlySplitter

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Corbin getting 140 over 6 from the dark horse Nationals changes the market some. now the Phils and Yanks are still looking for pitching help and Eovaldi is out there.

could be really tough and/or pricy to keep him.

EDIT: Yeah, this is likely not a puff smoke rumor either.

Jon Morosi‏Verified account @jonmorosi 4m4 minutes ago
#Yankees shifting focus to Nathan Eovaldi and J.A. Happ, sources say, now that Patrick Corbin has agreed to a contract with #Nationals. @MLB @MLBNetwork

Signing Eovaldi so the Yanks are stuck with aging Happ or giving up significant resources to CLE would be nice.
 

brandonchristensen

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definitely don't want to get into a bidding war for Eovaldi.

He is a Yankee killer, and was one of the best players in the postseason...but he still scares me long term.
 

StuckOnYouk

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What potential impact starters are in next offseasons market though (outside of our own )
Sale and Porcello will both be FA next offseason.
If we don’t have Eovaldi who will we have EdRo, Wright and Velazquez with Sale and Porcello agents knowing how desperate we are to give keys to the vault to them?
At some point we will have to give 2 of the 3 some moolah for years to come...unless there is another good pitcher hitting next years market
 

strek1

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definitely don't want to get into a bidding war for Eovaldi.

He is a Yankee killer, and was one of the best players in the postseason...but he still scares me long term.
Yeah well that's what people said about Rich Hill and we should have kept him at the time. Sign Eovaldi.
 

chawson

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Pick three pitchers from this list:

Buchholz, Bumgarner, Cahill, Cashner, Chacin, Cole, Eovaldi, Estrada, Fiers, Gibson, G. Gonzalez, Graveman, S. Gray, Happ, Harvey, Hellickson, E. Jackson, Keuchel, Lynn, Miley, S. Miller, Morton, Nova, Odorizzi, Pineda, Pomeranz, Porcello, Roark, Ross, Ryu, Sabathia, Sale, An. Sanchez, Santana, Shields, Shoemaker, Verlander, Wacha, Wheeler, Wood

The Sox could make a trade, but it probably won't be for anyone substantial without giving up Benintendi or Devers. Unless Darwinzon Hernandez continues to break out and is somehow ready in 2020 (it's possible), we need to sign or re-sign three from this list. The bold ones are available now, the others next year. Probably half of them should never pitch for the Red Sox.

Without signing Eovaldi, that task seems extraordinarily difficult.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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definitely don't want to get into a bidding war for Eovaldi.

He is a Yankee killer, and was one of the best players in the postseason...but he still scares me long term.
What pitchers don't scare you long term?

If you follow baseball you should expect starting pitchers to miss a good chunk of time every 3-5 years. Maybe "just" a half season, but likely longer.
 

joe dokes

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Yeah well that's what people said about Rich Hill and we should have kept him at the time. Sign Eovaldi.
I didnt think a long commitment to a 36year old pitcher who hadnt cracked 100 innings in 10 years was a good idea. 35, 135, 132 since. So I don't see how skipping on hill was anything close to a mistake.

At least Eovaldi has youth on his side.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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What potential impact starters are in next offseasons market though (outside of our own )
Sale and Porcello will both be FA next offseason.
If we don’t have Eovaldi who will we have EdRo, Wright and Velazquez with Sale and Porcello agents knowing how desperate we are to give keys to the vault to them?
At some point we will have to give 2 of the 3 some moolah for years to come...unless there is another good pitcher hitting next years market
David Price says hello. He's not going anywhere anytime soon. Regardless of what happens with Eovaldi, the Red Sox in 2020 shouldn't be in a position where they are desperate to re-sign both Sale and Porcello. At least not to a point where they hand a blank check to both of them. Price, Rodriguez, Wright, Johnson, Velazquez is a solid base to build from. Returning only one of Sale and Porcello, get lucky with a prospect progressing and maybe signing a cheaper FA is just as viable a route as overpaying Eovaldi now and/or overpaying both Sale and Porcello later.
 

Devizier

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Fangraphs projections undersold Corbin by $50 or $40 million, roughly 1/3 of his contract's total value. And he came attached with a QO.

I'm guessing Eovaldi gets quite a bit more than the 3/42-45 that they pegged him at.
 

joe dokes

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David Price says hello. He's not going anywhere anytime soon. Regardless of what happens with Eovaldi, the Red Sox in 2020 shouldn't be in a position where they are desperate to re-sign both Sale and Porcello. At least not to a point where they hand a blank check to both of them. Price, Rodriguez, Wright, Johnson, Velazquez is a solid base to build from. Returning only one of Sale and Porcello, get lucky with a prospect progressing and maybe signing a cheaper FA is just as viable a route as overpaying Eovaldi now and/or overpaying both Sale and Porcello later.
I think a lot of the future rides on whether ERod makes the jump. 30 starts out of him changes the entire rotation going forward, given his general effectiveness. (Im not quite willing to consider all 3 of Wright, Johnson and Velazquez as a "solid base," given the former's injury and the latter's smoke-and-mirrors, but that's neither here nor there.)

I think the larger point reflected in you post is that, in general, trying to forecast 2020 in great detail is a fools' errand. Certainly trying to build 2020'shypothetical rotation is. Who would have predicted after 2017 that after 2018 Nathan Eovaldi would be an issue. Or that Drew Pomeranz's career could be on the skids. A million things will happen in the next 12 months that will bring more reliable focus onto 2020.

Eovaldi is a tough call. (Chad Finn had a good, dispassionate column on that yesterday). But "what will the rotation look like in 2020 without him" is lower down on my list of factors to consider in making that call.
 
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Plympton91

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Pick three pitchers from this list:

Buchholz, Bumgarner, Cahill, Cashner, Chacin, Cole, Eovaldi, Estrada, Fiers, Gibson, G. Gonzalez, Graveman, S. Gray, Happ, Harvey, Hellickson, E. Jackson, Keuchel, Lynn, Miley, S. Miller, Morton, Nova, Odorizzi, Pineda, Pomeranz, Porcello, Roark, Ross, Ryu, Sabathia, Sale, An. Sanchez, Santana, Shields, Shoemaker, Verlander, Wacha, Wheeler, Wood

The Sox could make a trade, but it probably won't be for anyone substantial without giving up Benintendi or Devers. Unless Darwinzon Hernandez continues to break out and is somehow ready in 2020 (it's possible), we need to sign or re-sign three from this list. The bold ones are available now, the others next year. Probably half of them should never pitch for the Red Sox.
Along with porcello and Sale? Cole seems good. Ryu. Wheeler. Bumgarner. Roark is basically Porcello. If Buchholz has another solid season post TJ he’d be an option for the Porcello spot. I don’t think there’s that much of a dearth at all in 2020.

And who knows what team will be blowing it up next offseason and trading someone like Paxton for quarters on the dollar. Be nice to benefit from one of those the way the Yankees have with Stanton and Paxton.

Or they could go the 2013-2014 route with the 2020 team and hope to strike lightning and not care too much if they don’t while resetting the luxury tax for 2021.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Along with porcello and Sale? Cole seems good. Ryu. Wheeler. Bumgarner. Roark is basically Porcello. If Buchholz has another solid season post TJ he’d be an option for the Porcello spot. I don’t think there’s that much of a dearth at all in 2020.

And who knows what team will be blowing it up next offseason and trading someone like Paxton for quarters on the dollar. Be nice to benefit from one of those the way the Yankees have with Stanton and Paxton.

Or they could go the 2013-2014 route with the 2020 team and hope to strike lightning and not care too much if they don’t while resetting the luxury tax for 2021.
Sorry, if injury risk is the biggest black mark on Eovaldi, you just listed like five guys that are even bigger concerns. Ryu? Seriously, friggin Buchholz?
 

JimD

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Fangraphs projections undersold Corbin by $50 or $40 million, roughly 1/3 of his contract's total value. And he came attached with a QO.

I'm guessing Eovaldi gets quite a bit more than the 3/42-45 that they pegged him at.
A lot of us thought he was getting 4 years in the $60 to $80 million range - all Corbin's signing does IMO is push that number to the $80 million side, maybe a little higher.

The Sox braintrust wants Eovaldi so that's good enough for me. I'm still more worried about Houston signing him than the NYY. I'm glad that the Sox have let him know from the start of the offseason that they want him, and that guys like Price are openly campaigning for his return. Every little bit helps.
 

Plympton91

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Sorry, if injury risk is the biggest black mark on Eovaldi, you just listed like five guys that are even bigger concerns. Ryu? Seriously, friggin Buchholz?
It depends on the years and dollars doesn’t it? Do you still want Eovaldi for 4/$90? 5/$125?

Eovaldi is on TJ #2. That’s about the biggest reinjury or rapid decline risk you can possibly have. I’d take my chances on being able to get a shorter contract with one of those other guys in 2020.

As an example, Daniel Hudson’s first year back from his 2nd TJ was good. Subsequently he’s been replacement level at best even though it hasn’t given out again.

Plus Eovaldi was just ridden like a rented mule all October. Plenty of perfectly healthy guys have gotten that treatment and not bounced back the next year.
 

EdRalphRomero

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we just kept Leon and Swihart. I guess you can dump them later, but once again I don't expect any moves at C.
It is likely that one of the current catchers leaves though. If for no other reason than carrying three catchers without the ability to send one of them down periodically is too limiting (yeah it worked out in 2018, but that doesn't mean it is a good approach for this year). I expect them to move one of the three. And I expect them to add a catcher who can go on the 40, but who has options remaining.

The two remaining catchers they have in Pawtucket Oscar Hernandez (25 years old and a .556 OPS in AAA) and Juan Centeno (29 years old and a .598 OPS in AAA) are too lousy even for third catcher options. Dan Butler retired to become the Diamondbacks bullpen catcher. And the highest rated catching prospect they have that I can find is Kole Cottam, a 2018 4th round pick out of Kentucky who spent some time in Lowell last year (.679 OPS).

Seems like a replacement level catcher with remaining options would be of significant value to the team.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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It depends on the years and dollars doesn’t it? Do you still want Eovaldi for 4/$90? 5/$125?

Eovaldi is on TJ #2. That’s about the biggest reinjury or rapid decline risk you can possibly have. I’d take my chances on being able to get a shorter contract with one of those other guys in 2020.

As an example, Daniel Hudson’s first year back from his 2nd TJ was good. Subsequently he’s been replacement level at best even though it hasn’t given out again.

Plus Eovaldi was just ridden like a rented mule all October. Plenty of perfectly healthy guys have gotten that treatment and not bounced back the next year.
Sure, of course length and money matter but I don’t think anyone is suggesting the numbers you are. I’d gladly take him for 4/$80. That’s chump change now and as someone noted, you basically have to plan for any SP to miss a chunk of whatever you sign them to. They have the Mexicali’s on his elbow, if they’re comfortable offering him something like that, I’m certainly not going to question it.

His first TJ was in high school, a long tome ago. He bounced back well from his second one. I’d much rather put my chances on him than Clay Buchholz, price be damned.
 

moondog80

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Buchholz was very good last year, and if this comes down to whoever is willing to give Eovaldi an extra year, I'd definitely consider him a real alternative.
 

joe dokes

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The Sox braintrust wants Eovaldi so that's good enough for me. I'm still more worried about Houston signing him than the NYY. I'm glad that the Sox have let him know from the start of the offseason that they want him, and that guys like Price are openly campaigning for his return. Every little bit helps.
Ultimately, I think that's where I am. There's pretty good reasons on both sides of the "sign him" issue. He was great. But he had been mediocre. His elbow might explode. He's only 28.
Management seems to have a fair handle on things.