Celtics in 18-19
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
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If AD is dealt now, Ainge will release Hayward, sign Carmelo and deal Tatum, Brown and Horford for Marc Gasol.
If AD to LA happens before the deadline, Beal should absolutely be a target. Have to think out the salary matching aspects though. If Danny were willing to move Hayward, you could probably do something based on Hayward+picks for Beal and Mahinmi (the only way WAS takes Hayward, and Ian's deal expires right before Jaylen's new deal kicks in). Alternatively could do a deal around Brown for Beal, which is about the right price imo.
If you leave out the BigJohn posts, the reaction here is par for the GH course lately. His few really nice games falsely set unfair expectations with some of us.
Nobody sane is pining for Carmelo.
Well, 9th player minutes in the playoffs should equal zero except in garbage time, so that would be fine. They could catch Philly playing the way they are now and I would hope they'll catch Indiana after the Oladipo injury, but I think if they realistically hope to catch any of the top 2, Brad needs to shorten his rotations and give minutes to the best players as often as possible.
I know Gordon's minutes have gone down slightly the last few weeks, but he's averaging 26.0 minutes per game. That means Marcus Smart is only on the court a total of 30 seconds more than Gordon Hayward right now on average. IMO, that's just not the way to start picking up ground on Toronto/Milwaukee, etc., and it certainly won't be the way to beat them come playoff time if GH hasn't improved. Jaylen Brown is averaging less time, at 25.9 minutes. Marcus Morris is only playing 1.3 minutes per night more than Hayward.
I realize everyone came into the season thinking the C's depth would be a huge advantage, but I think we're finding that it's really not. Guys in today's NBA are stronger and faster than ever before, and capable of playing more minutes, so while we're spreading minutes around to the Gordon's and Terry's of the world, our opponents are adding minutes to their starting 5.
Right now, the C's have 8 guys averaging more than 22.6 minutes (and 7 of them are averaging at least 25.9). The 7th and 8th guys, Jaylen and Terry are at 25.9 and 22.6 respectively.
The Bucks have 6 guys averaging more than 22.6 minutes. Their 7th and 8th, Ilyasova and DJ Wilson, are at 18.0 and 17.7.
The Raptors (who have one of the best benches in the NBA) have 6 guys averaging more than 22.6 minutes. Their 7th and 8th, Anunoby and Valenciunas are at 20.4 and 18.8.
Indiana has 7 guys averaging more than 22.6 minutes. Their 7th and 8th, Sabonis and Evans, are at 25.2 and 20.6
Golden State only has 5 guys averaging more than 22.6 minutes, and their 7th and 8th, Cousins and Jerebko, are at 21.0 and 19.0.
Philly is the only team with guys spreading minutes like the C's, as they have 9 guys averaging 22.5 a game. Their 7th and 8th, Chandler and Brewer, are at 26.5 and 25.3. But look deeper. Of those 9 guys, Saric and Covington only played 13 games and are gone, Fultz played 19 and he's gone, so their 7th and 8th, in reality, are McConnell and Shamet who are 21.2 and 20.1.
Nobody is saying that Gordon should be buried on the bench, never to be seen or heard from again. All I'm saying is that he should be seeing the court 10-15mpg at this point, instead of 25+. Those 10 minutes that he's playing should be re-allocated to the Smart/Brown/Tatum/Morris contingent. Terry? That's another story entirely.
Running up the mileage on our starters in a desperate attempt to make up regular season wins feels like a panic move.
The Celtics played deep into the playoffs last year and are built to do that again. The NBA is a marathon, not a sprint.
Taking it relatively easy with these guys makes all the sense in the world.
The Celtics played deep into the playoffs last year and are built to do that again. The NBA is a marathon, not a sprint.
Taking it relatively easy with these guys makes all the sense in the world.
Tatum is 20. Brown is 22. There is no reason why these guys shouldn't be playing more minutes than they currently are.
I guess the question becomes, is taking it easy now more important than getting home court advantage in the playoffs? Will an extra few minutes a night really wear these guys down? Nobody is advocating increasing Kyrie's or Horford's minutes. We're talking about guys, in their early 20's. Marcus Smart averaged 29.9mpg during the regular season last year, and he's now down to 26.3mpg. Jaylen averaged 30.7mpg and he's down to 25.9mpg.
I didn't see any evidence last year that Brown and Smart couldn't handle the playoffs because they were playing 4-5 more minutes a night during the regular season.
As to the question itself, I think home court advantage is going to be massively important come playoff time, as it pretty much always is. We haven't seen this team beat a .500 team on the road since the 5th game of the year, yet it's more important to give these young guys rest, than to avoid being forced to win on the road in the playoffs? I just don't see it. Golden State has never come close to the minute distribution we're seeing on the Celtics this year. Klay averaged 34.3mpg last year, Durant was 34.2, Green was 32.7, Curry was 32.0. This year, Curry is at 34.4, Durant is at 35.6, Klay is at 34.2 and Green is at 31.3. The only two players on the C's averaging more than 30mpg are Kyrie at 32.6 and Tatum at 31.1.
If these guys need this much rest, at the expense of winning regular season games, why doesn't Steve Kerr buy into it? I mean, Golden State is playing in more blowouts than we are, so those guys numbers should even be lower than our starters, and yet....
Yes, Smart and Jaylen clearly can and should play more than they currently are.
Not to mention that, with AD's trade request, showcasing and developing Jaylen just became priority #1. His further development is also the C's clearest path to a deep playoff run.
When Smart caught Philly's final desperation pass in the 2nd round last year, L2M report said there should have been a travel then too. That's never getting called.
I was responding to "hope to improve playoff seeding." That's different than "any hope of catching the top 2.
Who is "etc." since you say they *can* catch Philly and Indiana the way they are playing now (given Oladipo's injury).
Yes, the bolded is true. If the coach relies extensively on players that aren't playing well or who aren't good players, they will not do well in the playoffs. Does anyone think think that's even a remote possibility unless Tim Donaghy takes over the team in March?
Welp, plenty of minutes to go around. Terry Rozier for everyone. Uggh.
I would love to see a game where Terry and Gordon get the night off, just to see how things would shake out on the court.
Yes, I think it's very much a possibility that Gordon Hayward sees significant minutes in the playoffs. He's currently our 6th man, for crying out loud. When has Brad ever gone into the playoffs and benched his 6th man? Until Brad proves he will bench him, what evidence do we have to show that he actually will come playoff time? Go look at the minutes from the playoffs in 2016/17, or 2015/16. Brad doesn't all of a sudden eliminate the 6th, 7th, and sometimes, even the 8th man, from his playoff rotation. Last year was a much shorter rotation because of the injury to Kyrie, but taken in total, the average minutes played by guys 1-8 or so didn't change a whole lot from the regular season to the playoffs in prior years. Benching Gordon or Terry come playoff time would be a departure for Brad, not something we should just assume he's going to do.
Of course, if we go into the playoffs as the 3-4 seed, I think best case scenario is one and done anyway. That's why I want Brad (and everyone else apparently) to start worrying about winning games now, and not worrying about if 21 year old Jaylen Brown is going to be too tired after playing an extra 3 minutes a night. If you feel like this team can go on a deep run as the 3 seed, then we can just agree to disagree. If you think this team can catch Milwaukee or Toronto, with Gordon and Terry combining for over 48 minutes a night, then again, we can just agree to disagree.
IMO, It's about to be February. We're already 8 games passed the halfway point of the season (maybe folks are just confused because the ASG break is not mid-season). The clock is ticking for a higher seed, and I truly believe we need a higher seed if we're going to go anywhere in the playoffs.
Yeah, maybe you're right. He'll give significant minutes to players in the playoffs who are playing shitty. Like he does every year.
Your assumption that "Brad isn't worried about wining games now" is based on little more than the fact that you think you have a better way of wining them.
So you're making the argument that Brad is going to bench Gordon Hayward because he wants to win playoff games, but he's playing Gordon Hayward now because he's worried about winning regular season games? Explain that logic. If Gordon Hayward puts them in the best position to win games now, why would you think he wouldn't put them in the best position to win in the post-season? Or if Gordon Hayward wouldn't put them in the best position to win playoff games, why do you think he does now? If Brad does turn around and bench Gordon come playoff time, are you then going to concede that Brad was less worried about winning regular season games?
Alternatively, feel free to just post "In Brad I trust," and we can be done with it.
You're right about one thing though. I don't know if Brad is worried about winning games now. I just know they aren't winning as many games now as they need to in order to get a top 2 seed. Whether or not I have a "better way of winning them" is unknowable unless Brad actually tries it, so I'm not really sure of the relevance.
I don't think that's fair.
There are other considerations. Perhaps Brad is giving more minutes to Hayward because he thinks that this is how you shake off rust, build Gordon's confidence, help with his flow/timing/etc., knowing that it may cost us a game or two in the standings. Maybe Rozier and Morris are getting a few extra minutes because it's their walk year, even if that sometimes costs us. Players get that and may long-term feel that the coach and team have their backs. I have no idea. But Brad and Danny are in that locker room. And sometimes the long term is more important than tonight's win. This is something that people seem to get when it comes to rest days, but not 5mpg for a guy.
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Which I think makes it even more infuriating when he plays a like a numbskull off the bench.
The Celtics have only 2 players in the top 100 in the league in minutes played — Tatum (41) and Kyrie (67). They have 6 players ranked between 101 and 150. Injuries have exaggerated the numbers a bit — Al would be comfortably in the top 100 if he hadn’t missed 10 games — but it’s clear that these usage patterns are part of a deliberate strategy.
The Bucks are employing a less drastic version of Brad’s strategy. The Warriors, Rockets, Thunder, and Sixers are all riding their best few players hard. The Raptors are somewhere in between. I’m not sure what the hell the Nuggets are doing.
Overall, though, the differences among these teams are relatively subtle. League-wide, 88 players are averaging between 29 and 35 minutes per game (with only 13 averaging over 35, and only 2 over 37). The C’s have only 2 players in this 29-35 range, but have 5 more averaging at least 25.9 minutes. It’s a big enough difference that I’m sure it’s intentional, but it’s not like Brad is doing something radically different than other coaches are.
Is he trying to save his guys for the playoffs? Does he want his guys to be fresher for crunch time in close games? Or is this just a product of having arguably the NBA’s deepest roster? I have no idea, but whatever the rationale, the differences are too subtle to be a major driver of the team’s performance, for good or for ill.
The Bucks are employing a less drastic version of Brad’s strategy. The Warriors, Rockets, Thunder, and Sixers are all riding their best few players hard. The Raptors are somewhere in between. I’m not sure what the hell the Nuggets are doing.
Overall, though, the differences among these teams are relatively subtle. League-wide, 88 players are averaging between 29 and 35 minutes per game (with only 13 averaging over 35, and only 2 over 37). The C’s have only 2 players in this 29-35 range, but have 5 more averaging at least 25.9 minutes. It’s a big enough difference that I’m sure it’s intentional, but it’s not like Brad is doing something radically different than other coaches are.
Is he trying to save his guys for the playoffs? Does he want his guys to be fresher for crunch time in close games? Or is this just a product of having arguably the NBA’s deepest roster? I have no idea, but whatever the rationale, the differences are too subtle to be a major driver of the team’s performance, for good or for ill.
This is where you lose me. The C's don't have 2 players in the 29-35 range. They have 2 players in the 29-32.6 range. How many teams don't have a player averaging more than 32.6mpg? I'm not going to complain about Kyrie's usage (or Al's). If Brad feels he needs to manage them during the season, so they'll be 100% for the playoffs, I'll defer to him. I think the C's can win most games with Kyrie playing 32 and Al playing 28, if the rest of the minutes are managed well.
Tatum is #2 on the C's, and he's 64th in the league at 31.1mpg. Jayson Tatum spends less time on the court for the C's than Cedi Osman spends on the court for the Cavs. He's getting less minutes than Evan Fournier, Jerami Grant, Garrett Temple, Gallinari, etc.
But, the real problem is the giant logjam of guys getting 22-30 minutes a game (excluding Horford at 28.7 or so). Marcus Morris at 27.7 (108th in the league) and is playing the same minutes as Rodney Hood and Jabari Parker. He's playing less than Jeff Green, DJ Augustine and Kent Bazemore. Marcus Smart at 26.3 (120th in the league) is playing less than Mudiay and Noah Vonleh and all the aforementioned guys. Jaylen at 25.9 (130th) is playing less than Gordon Hayward, Rodney McGruder and Imam Shumpert and all of the aforementioned guys.
I posted the numbers above that showed where the C's stood compared to the other contenders in the East, and while it doesn't look "radically" different, when you watch the games, and see what happens on a nightly basis when Gordon and Rozier are taking minutes from the starters, you recognize that those 10 "extra" minutes Gordon is getting and 7 or so that Terry is getting are having a significant impact on games. That's a quarter and a half of basketball from 20% of the guys on the floor at the time.
I think maybe it's time for Danny/Brad to recognize that we may not be as "deep" as everyone thought we were, or alternatively (and what I think might be an even more interesting question), maybe being that deep is actually a disadvantage in today's NBA. Maybe with the way guys train nowadays, you're better off playing your 6-7 best players 30+ minutes a night, instead of trying to play 9-10 guys 20+ minutes a night. If your opponents are only playing their 6-7 best players, and they aren't getting tired, and your not getting tired, but you're rolling out 9-10 guys and the bottom 2-3 aren't as good as the opponents top 6-7, then it's a losing proposition, and I think that's what's happening. I think if we were matching up our 8th-10th roster spots with our opponents 8th-10th roster spots on the court, we'd be wiping the floor with them, but that's not whats happening. We're using those 8th-10th spots to try to buy minutes against opponents starters or 6th-7th guys, and we're losing ground in almost every game when that happens.
I'm with you in wanting more optimal minutes distributions. However, it's pretty clear at this point that there are other considerations here. Brad has obviously been told that Terry has to get minutes, whether it's to showcase him or to do right by him in his contract year, and the Hayward stuff is probably a combination of trying to work him back, but also doing right by a guy who actively chose to come.
Is that the right way to do things? Time will tell. The Celtics seem to have a really good reputation with players right now, to the point where they've signed two premium free agents recently, and still have IT's affection after what was seen as a cold move. These things matter in a players' league.
Who's only rolling 6-7 man rotations in the dog days of the NBA season?
I'm not an expert, but I promise if teams are playing that short a rotation, those players are getting tired.
Almost everyone besides the Celtics? I posted it above. Obviously, we're not talking about literally only playing 6-7 guys per game. The discussion is about the bulk of the minutes and where they are going. Right now, the C's have 8 guys averaging 22.6mpg or more. The Bucks have only 7 guys averaging 18.0 or more. The Raptors have 7 guys averaging 20.4 or more. The Warriors have 6 guys 21.0 or more. Philly has 7 at 21.2 or more.
The C's are basically giving about 15 more minutes a game to their 7th and 8th players than most contenders, and they are taking those minutes from the guys 2-6. So that's 15 minutes a night that our 7th and 8th guys are playing against our opponents starters, etc. And if those extra minutes aren't leading to fresher legs than our opponents, the talent disparity works against us during those minutes.
Did you also look at games played? Going by minutes per game can be very misleading if there's a lot of injuries.
Yep, for the most part, the C's/Bucks/Raptors/Pacers have been fairly healthy all year. The C's top 8 guys have all played at least 40 of their 50 games. Al is at 40, Kyrie is at 43, and everyone else is at 45 or more. Indiana had no injuries among their top 9 players until Oladipo. Same with Toronto and Milwaukee.
Philly is really the only outlier, but it's mainly due to the trade of Saric/Covington (so it actually makes them look like they are spreading the minutes out more than they are). Fultz' is the only real major injury among guys getting big minutes.
In fact, it's pretty amazing how healthy the top 4-5 teams in the East have been all year, until Oladipo went down.
Well, I said "if," but I've watched every minute of every game, and I can't remember a single time Gordon Hayward or Terry Rozier took advantage of an opponent because the opponent had played a lot of minutes. Shit, if Gordon and Terry have an advantage because of their fresher legs, then it's worse than I thought. You're saying it could be worse?
Lots of things seem to infuriate you. My take is you keep giving Terry minutes with an eye towards the playoffs. We're a much better team when he plays well. I thought the same earlier in the year when Jaylen was struggling, that worked out. I think the same about Hayward. I don't think we're a contender without those guys playing well, so might as well try to get it right now.
I'm definitely less concerned about Terry's minutes than I am Gordon's. I agree that if Terry is playing well, they are a better team, and I think Terry's issues are fixable. If he would just shoot less, dribble less, focus as hard on defense as he does when he starts and basically just run the offense, rather than try to be the offense, I think he can be great for this team.
I don't believe that Gordon Hayward is going to find that explosion that he's lost during the last few months of the season or in the playoffs. I think he'll find it in the off-season, and I'm optimistic about him for next year, but I just haven't seen any significant improvement from October until now to make me think it's going to change between now and April. Tonight was another bad night for him, all things considered.
They were a game away from the NBA finals last year without Kyrie Irving, so I don't think this team needs 25-30 minutes from GH come playoff time to be successful. In fact, I think if Brad plans to do that, they will be very, very unsuccessful.
Again, to be clear, I'm not talking about benching these guys and giving up on them. I'm talking about cutting their minutes and re-allocating them. If folks want to continue to give Terry 22.5 minutes a night off the bench, I can probably be talked into it. But Gordon Hayward taking 26 minutes a night, at the expense of guys like Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart? No way. Gordon had to leave tonight to get stitches and only played 21 minutes, and Jaylen played 32 minutes. I think anyone with a pair of functioning eyes can see how much better the team looked as a result. That's what I'm looking for more of on a nightly basis.
while you're busy doling out minutes, make sure you figure out how to get Aron Baynes more floor time...
Remind me: What was the poster-in-question's "guess" about this?
Red called Danny the luckiest sonofabitch he ever met. There is no kind of guy like him, and IBIT.
I dunno what the right answer is. I do remember one thing that I think is worth pointing out--the relationship goes both ways. I can imagine that Brad might be fond of Gordo and want to give him every chance possible. But give their relationship, he's also well positioned to ask Heywood to change his role in the interests of the team should it come to that.
I LOL'd.
FWIW, he's been on fire in the game threads lately--by which I mean his diagnoses and predictions have practically been in "nothing but net" territory. I feel like I'm wasting my time watching the games when I should be reading DotB's posts.
You mean referring to Tatum as the worst finisher in the NBA? [emoji14]
I think a lot of ink is being spilled about a team that is pretty damned close to last years squad in performance if not in aesthetics. Variance giveth and variance talent etcetera. 5 seed but having Kyrie versus a 1 seed without? I honestly thimk this team has a better shot at the finals than last years.
Playoff minutes and regular season minutes for GH are 2 different issues, though.
The average NBA team has only 3 players averaging 29 minutes or more per game. The C’s have 2, plus another 4 or 5 averaging between 26 and 29. Another coach might give all those guys another 3 minutes of burn per game — more than that would make the Zc’s an outlier in the other direction. Taken together, that’s a significant number of extra minutes for the 8th and 9th men in the rotation, which most of us would peg as Hayward and Rozier, but I’m skeptical that the detriment of those minutes, partially offset by the benefit of keeping the top 6-7 guys a tick fresher, is worth more than a game or two over the course of an 82-game season.
That's a damn fine point imo. Higher ceiling, but lower floor. At least that's my gut now too.Yes, but last years squad has a better shot at making the EC finals
IIRC, the conversation was about whether GH is going to get any better from where he is now and Big J is not an optimist about that.
I don't see Brad changing the script in the regular season. He likes the starting line up, and figures the talented second unit will figure it out. Brown, Rozier, Baynes, Hayward, and one starter in theory should be a low seed playoff team, and should be able to at least match up with every NBA bench in the league, and dominate most of them.
Hopefully, the Cs will go something like 19-5 after the all star break and head into the playoffs firing on all cylinders. If they don't get it together, there still is enough top level talent to hold court at home in the playoffs and steal a game in Philly, Indy, Milwaukee, or Toronto.
Hopefully, the Cs will go something like 19-5 after the all star break and head into the playoffs firing on all cylinders. If they don't get it together, there still is enough top level talent to hold court at home in the playoffs and steal a game in Philly, Indy, Milwaukee, or Toronto.
We look at last year's team too much with rose-colored glasses imo. They were fun as hell, but ended up in tons of close games that this year's team is able to turn into blowouts (reflected in net rating). They also had scoring droughts that don't happen as often this year.
This year's team is definitely less tough mentally, particularly on the defensive end (hi, 3rd quarter!). I think that's the most fixable of all the issues, as we've seen when they consistently up the intensity and reach another level against rivals.
This whole season's narrative would be a lot more upbeat if Bud had been coaching the 2017-2018 Bucks, who probably would have bumped the Celtics in 5 or 6.
This reminds me of the old Terry Francona debates when he managed for the entire 162-game season plus playoffs whereas posters treat every game as a Game 7. Stevens isn't managing minutes over 82-games to squeeze out every regular season win today while not best preparing the team for the playoffs so I wouldn't continue to expect him to begin doing so now. These two seasons are completely different animals. NBA head coaches generally use 9 and 10-man rotations with more minutes spread out equally than ever before..….with those minutes going toward the best players come playoff time when you do not have any B2B games or 3 in 4 night games as you do over the course of the regular season.
This is a big nothing burger from my seat just as it was for Francona. I still feel this team is missing a mental edge to win deep into the playoffs but Stevens is best managing his rotation to prepare for when the real season begins where every game DOES matter.
No I'm not making that argument. You are humping the strawman that EVERYTHING the coach does on January 28 is somehow indicative of what will happen on April 16.
The "logic" goes like this: in the regular season there are multiple things a coach probably "worries about." Winning tonight's game is one of those things. Players' overall health is another. Seeing what certain players can offer in certain situations is another. Giving players enough playing time to return to form after a full season away due to injury is another. Smart people who are good at their jobs are capable of "worrying about" multiple things at the same time.
In the playoffs the list shrinks to wining tonight's game.
Also, since the playoffs don't start for 10 weeks, its impossible to know whether January Hayward is April Hayward.
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This is really important. If the playoffs started tomorrow, Hayward is likely a 10-minute 9th man, whose role is to give the wings a blow around the 1st and 3rd quater breaks.
Interesting timing. Giving starter Terry a lot of run right before the trade deadline...