Anthony Davis: No Loyalty
- Thread starter HomeRunBaker
- Start date
This is where I am at. If KD leaves for the Knicks and Boogie gets paid, you don't have to be completely delusional to think that Lebron, a good but not great FA, and the existing roster could make some noise in the West.
There is a lot of talent available this summer. While the back of end of many of these deals make look bad, for years 1 and 2, all of these guys are all conceivable as the second option on a conference finals team, if option #1 is a healthy, engaged Lebron:
Kemba
Boogie
Butler
Klay
Gasol (rejuvenated Toronto version)
Middleton
Vucevic
Tobias Harris
Kawhi
There is a lot of talent but there are also a lot of landing spots. It will be a fascinating game of musical chairs.
Yeah, just got off a 15 hour flight...was trying to be funny or ironic and ended up neither.
I don't have the numbers handy but Klay has put up outrageous numbers in games when Curry was out and also had some huge numbers in lineups without Curry and Durant. He's actually underutilized by the Warriors for good reason of course.
This season, Thompson is plus 5.9 with a 47.6% shooting percentage and 41.2% from three with Curry on the court. With Curry off, he is minus 0.8 with 46.1% on FGs and he is hitting 37.7% from deep. This pattern is pretty consistent for the past few years.
I don't doubt that there are games where Thompson feasts without Curry and/or Durant taking touches. However the data supports the idea that Curry, at least, makes him even more lethal. Taking the data into account as well as having a watched a ton of Thompson's game over his career, I stand by my view that he is better off in an offense where he isn't the focal point. For all his brilliance, I don't see Thompson as a player you would build your team around. That said, he might be the most complimentary player in the NBA for LeBron.
I don’t buy this thesis. The only guys on that list that strike me as good enough to pair with Lebron and be a serious threat to the Rockets or Warriors (I’m assuming that if KD leaves, Klay definitely stays) in a post-Warriors superteam world are Butler, Kawhi, and maybe Cousins. Everyone else is closer to Kevin Love caliber than Kyrie caliber, and Lebron needed Kyrie to compete with the pre-KD Warriors.
Realistically, the Lakers need to someone like Butler and someone like Harris to have a real contender because they don’t have any other championship caliber talent on their roster right now (possible exception for Ball, but he’s not there yet).
So there a couple of reasons, I come out the other way. First and foremost, the Lakers have not made the playoffs since 2013. Regardless of their public pronouncements, Magic and Rob are not in championship or bust mode. If you could give them truth serum, my strong suspicion is that they would acknowledge being happy with the Lakers being in the conversation. A conference finals appearance in which they have a punchers chance would be a great outcome.
With regard to the Warriors, it is possible that after KD leaves, Steph, Klay and Draymond go into FU mode and dominate the West once again. However, I think its more likely that the gap between them and the rest of the West's other elite teams, shrinks dramatically. Removing KD does not leave you with that 73 win team from 2015-2016. Setting aside the centers (who are fungible) they no longer have Barnes (who was 4th on the team in minutes) and Barbosa. Draymond is averaging 7pts a game on .233 shooting from 3, instead of 14 on .388 from beyond the arc. Iggy will be 36, Livingston 34. No one should be anointing the 2019-2020, KD-less Warriors as the prohibitive favorites.
This is where I am as well. There isn’t a whole lot you need to add to LeBron to make them a contender in the WC with Durant and Cousins out of GS. Aside from the max slot they still have trade assets which are extremely valuable around the league even if it may not be enough to convince Ferry to move AD within the conference. This was always a bridge year for the Lakers contending for a Championship but next year was almost certainly going to be a season where they contend to reach The Finals. Even without AD that seems to be the case.
The Lakers could even kill two birds with one stone by signing a player that Davis enjoyed playing with, Cousins. Simultaneously weakening the Warriors and getting them some serious playoff run. It also allows them to continue to fill in with one year deals and leave themselves as a possible Davis landing spot in 2020.
Cousins needs to have someone to look up to that can provide him leadership. The Lakers sure would be an interesting landing spot for him.
Cousins is almost certainly gone from GS either way; and the Lakeshow makes some sense as a landing spot, since they'll likely whiff on KD and Kawhi, will have $$$ to throw around, and be desperate to land a big name free agent. But in hoops terms, it'd be hard to concoct a worse combo of three superstars in the modern NBA than LeBron-AD-Cousins. We're talking three slow-footed, mostly unswitchable big men (yeah, LeBron at 35 = a slow-footed big man) in the age of space of pace. I'm sure they could work out the offense, since they can all shoot and pass, but there's serious potential for defensive disaster, imo.
LeBron teaming with Kawhi and George — with LeBron moving to full-time 4, and 5 during crunchtime, and PG/Kawhi chasing the wings and smalls around the perimeter — was the ultimate hoops combo, imho, and one they should have pursued much more diligently. Kawhi and PG are also much better perimeter shooters than AD and Cousins, so much better offensive complements as well. LeBron at 35 + AD + Cousins (with all their young legs shipped off to acquired AD) is a huge step down from the Big 3 they should (could?) have had. Hard for me to envision that core contending for a championship in 2020 and beyond, given the minimal assets and $$$ they'd have left over to construct a credible group of guards, wings, and role players.
Neither Davis nor James are “slow-footed big men”. Leonard has shown no inclinations towards signing on with the Lakers (if anything the Clippers seem to have the inside track on KL if he leaves Toronto) and George is off the market. And I agree that LBJ/PG would have been a dream combo.
Magilinka royally screwed up there, Paul George is worth 17 Brandon Ingrams and Lonzo Balls, holding on to that draft pick for dear life sure as shit backfired on them. As it is they have two rapidly declining assets instead of an NBA superstar in his prime.
At this point, though, Magilinka need to start making real playoff runs or the Buss family will promote them out of everyday management and install a new GM. So while I agree that they’ll whiff on Durant and Leonard (and likely Butler), I think bringing in Cousins gets them where they want to be, the second round of the NBA playoffs with the opportunity to bring in Davis as the long-term centerpiece of the franchise.
I've definitely seen him switch a bit — hence "mostly unswitchable." But he's obviously not Kawhi or George (or even Durant) on the perimeter. His rim and interior defense certainly passes the eye test, but somehow his teams are always mediocre or worse defensively.
Basically, AD, Cousins, and 35 y.o. LeBron are all guys who I'd optimally want to play alongside four guys who are quicker and more switchable than they are. Two of those guys are sufficient to “play big” in a manner that would please Ben Hogan. All three seems like massive overkill and a poor expenditure of max salary slots.
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The metrics for him defensively are extremely good; so I wouldn't say he is unswitchable. I would say that functionally LeBron is a PF at this point and isn't going to put a maximum amount of effort on defense during the regular season, so you would basically be hoping that Davis to guard the opposing 3's, which would become a problem if teams go small.
If the Lakers are able to pull off an AD trade they're going to have to unload everything they have. Signing a big money third wheel will basically leave them mostly minimum salary guys, plus one guy on the room exception, to fill out the squad. I think rather than making the third highly paid guy yet another big they have to get a guard to have someone to guard Steph/Harden. I'd expect Klutch client Eric Bledsoe to be the target for third wheel if they can get AD.
I don't think he's going to need an enticement to sign there in 2020 if he's a free agent. If he's willing to leave money on the table from whatever team he plays next season with, he's likely going to the Lakers regardless of who else is on the roster with LeBron.
Maybe, but we’ve seen this number before and it hasn’t ended well for the Lakers recently. Maglinka needs Davis a whole lot more than he needs the Lakers.
You think so? I’m guessing AD will be traded well before Kawhi makes a decision.
Perhaps. But I can't see AD being traded before draft night, and Kawhi may have decided by then, if not publicly then privately.
I think it depends on who lands the top 2-3 picks. If it’s teams who aren’t in the AD chase, then I think the parameters of an AD trade could very well be in place before the draft.
The real variable here is Kyrie. Ainge really can’t do anything until he knows what Kyrie is thinking.
Yeah, if Irving’s leaving then it’s back to the drawing board for Boston. Ainge would need to convince 24/7 to do him a solid by making Irving’s departure a sign & trade and then find a reasonable sign & trade for Rozier so that they’re not stuck having to match someone’s wild late bid on a free agent left on the table at the end of the feeding frenzy.
The talk of a sign and trade for any player is way overblown. The newest CBA made them almost obsolete by hard capping the receiving team.
Taken from a salary cap site -
There are two major complications for sign-and-trades to add on, one straightforward and the other more complex. The straightforward issue is that the targeted team that receives the free agent is hard capped at a value called "the apron" which is $6 million above the luxury tax for the rest of the season. There is no exception or provision that can change this and it severely limits the transactions a team can make throughout the season.
Taken from a salary cap site -
There are two major complications for sign-and-trades to add on, one straightforward and the other more complex. The straightforward issue is that the targeted team that receives the free agent is hard capped at a value called "the apron" which is $6 million above the luxury tax for the rest of the season. There is no exception or provision that can change this and it severely limits the transactions a team can make throughout the season.
Yes, but if you're under the cap and signing free agents you aren't going over the luxury tax line to begin with. Teams like New York and Phoenix and Orlando aren't spending past the apron next year because they can't. This impacts teams like OKC and Boston that are already in luxury tax land, not the teams that cleared their payrolls.
NYK have almost nobody but rookie contract guys signed beyond next year. What is the 25 million in salary they are sending to BOS in this hypothetical?
They don't have to send $25 mil in salary. The Celtics would just get a huge exception.
I think.
It would not surprise me at all for DA to go hard after AD even if Kyrie announced he wasn't resigning with the Cs. DA is all about upgrading, and at this point, AD is the ultimate upgrading.
I don't know how likely it is and it's incredibly risky because when one goes all-in, one has a chance of busting. But it would certain be in character for DA to bet that AD, GH, JB (likely), Smart, plus whatever else is left on the bench (Semi, I'm sure) and maybe a resigned Horford combined with Brad is enough to win, and that winning convinces AD to stay.
If Kyrie goes, then I like the idea of building around Tatum, Brown, Williams, and Smart for now rather than pursuing AD (unless you can get him on the cheap trade-wise, i.e. no Tatum). Smart becomes the old man at 24 and you have quite a window to attract another max player and wait for those picks to either mature or package in a trade. Williams is obviously a project so he's more of a flyer, but his window fits that group. Hayward figures in here too as a vet bridge and eventually an expiring max if need be.
We know Danny's good at filling a roster, and we already have a good young coach, so I'm fairly confident that this would be a solid team as they keep building. As a fan, I'm happy to watch the young guys figure it out, play hard and enjoy the camaraderie. If Kyrie stays, then AD's window is a great match, so of course, you make the adjustment if you can gauge whether AD will stay or not.
We know Danny's good at filling a roster, and we already have a good young coach, so I'm fairly confident that this would be a solid team as they keep building. As a fan, I'm happy to watch the young guys figure it out, play hard and enjoy the camaraderie. If Kyrie stays, then AD's window is a great match, so of course, you make the adjustment if you can gauge whether AD will stay or not.
The problem for the Celtics if (a) Kyrie leaves at the end of the season and (b) they cannot get Davis is that the UFA class in 2020 is middle heavy, meaning its mostly decent to very good rotation players. Another trade opportunity for a star can arise but the C's will have also "realized" some of their draft assets and their youngsters have less control attached to them.
Missing out on Davis isn't the end of the world but if that happens coupled with an Irving departure, the Cs are essentially the equivalent of the Jazz. A good team with lots of rotational depth and a potential superstar player who still needs a lot of improvement to get to the next level. And as much as I love Tatum and his game, he is nowhere near leading his own team yet.
Missing out on Davis isn't the end of the world but if that happens coupled with an Irving departure, the Cs are essentially the equivalent of the Jazz. A good team with lots of rotational depth and a potential superstar player who still needs a lot of improvement to get to the next level. And as much as I love Tatum and his game, he is nowhere near leading his own team yet.
That's a good point on 2020, but player movement is so fluid and in transition now with a lot of players calling shots that it's difficult to forecast how the market is going to go from here. Danny's willingness to stay open for business on all fronts is a tremendous advantage. If the C's lose Kyrie and decide to stay put for a moment, then they have the chance to perhaps sell high on Brown down the road, for example, if he shows more with more playing time.
It's a gamble that Danny and Stevens have to manage, but again, they'll have a good-sized window to work in. You're correct that Tatum does have a long way to go too, but he also has a lot of time to get there (he'll be 21 in March). I realize a lot of the above boils down to In Danny I Trust, so I guess I do although it's pretty unsexy. I like how he constantly weighs and churns assets and that tendency is made for this new NBA. He's lucky too, but he has gotten us to the point where we actually could acquire AD and that looked impossible not long ago.
It's a gamble that Danny and Stevens have to manage, but again, they'll have a good-sized window to work in. You're correct that Tatum does have a long way to go too, but he also has a lot of time to get there (he'll be 21 in March). I realize a lot of the above boils down to In Danny I Trust, so I guess I do although it's pretty unsexy. I like how he constantly weighs and churns assets and that tendency is made for this new NBA. He's lucky too, but he has gotten us to the point where we actually could acquire AD and that looked impossible not long ago.
Imagine someone telling you 6 years ago during a game where you’re watching guys like Faverani play for the Celtics that Danny would be on the doorstep to adding Anthony Davis to Kyrie Irving. Sometimes I need to pinch myself.
As for this summer, I think trading Tatum plus for AD without Kyrie in the fold would be exceedingly risky. AD is obviously a stud but we would be positively boned if he left.
In a worst case scenario of Kyrie leaving, I could get behind being patient behind a core of Tatum/Brown while hoping that the Memphis pick either turns into the 3rd star or gets traded for one. You’d have to take down the expectations a notch but that team would still be quality and fun to watch.
Apologies if this has been mentioned before in this thread or elsewhere, but it seems like there is a lot of debate about Horford opting in or out, etc. But do people think that Al and AD would even be a good fit together? Wouldn't AD essentially replace Al?
They’d be an amazing fit together, and Al’s regular season minutes will keep going down over time.
I think they'd fit well. Brad loves to run the high pick-and-pop with a big who can shoot the 3, execute a DHO, or put in on the floor and drive to the hoop. Staggering both AD and Horford would allow him to do that for 48 minutes. It's also a defensively versatile core - when they need to go big, they can play Al at the 4 (and reduce his wear-and-tear), and when they want to go small, either can play the 5.
Haven't you been paying attention? Chances seem more likely we have 0 of those 3 next year than 2 of them.
Agreed (I was just talking about on-court fit). I could see Al staying if KD decides he wants to join Kyrie in Boston by opting in and forcing a S&T for Hayward, but I can't imagine they could afford all of Kyrie, GH, Al, and AD, even if they let Rozier/Morris/Theis walk and trade Tatum/Smart/Baynes in the AD deal.
The latest article on the Anthony Davis saga.
https://www.nola.com/pelicans/2019/02/anthony-davis-on-minutes-reduction-his-list-and-staying-professional.html
https://www.nola.com/pelicans/2019/02/anthony-davis-on-minutes-reduction-his-list-and-staying-professional.html
Yahoo reporting that Draymond Green, who has one year remaining on his deal, is close to signing with Klutch. Is this the breakup of the Warriors as we've known them and does Draymond replace Ingram in another year?
Or maybe he just wants to get on The Shop.
LeBron is taking over this entire freakin league!!!
Or maybe he just wants to get on The Shop.
LeBron is taking over this entire freakin league!!!
It would certainly fit in for Lebron's penchant for past-their-prime guys
In all seriousness it absolutely would. I've beaten this like a dead horse......at every stop LeBron has had influence he has filled his roster with older veteran players and that the plan was always to move away from the Ball/Ingram/Kuzma/Zubac/Hart/Wagner brigade at this past deadline or by this summers draft.
The Ball situation is similar to Dunn in Chicago in its uniqueness being that they are best served to be lead guards in a league where most teams already have lead guards while they are stuck in a situation where the ball goes through another primary initiator in LeBron and LaVine.
Kind of amazing Ball has a better career (albeit basically identical) 3 point % than Dunn, and this year too. 315 to .313 career and .329 to .328 this year. I never noticed how similar they were in rate %. Ball being the better rebounder and surprisingly, Dunn being the better distributor (at least if you ignore his rookie year).
Even last year, Ball's assist % was only 29.2 (23.8 this year, but LeBron). Dunn was at 33.3% last year and 31.1% this year. Of course, that 29.2% was in Ball's rookie year. In normal situations, you'd expect that to have improved a bit. It's very possible he'd be over 33.3% this year without LeBron.
He says he has no control over his clothes, as someone else lays out his clothes for him.