I’d say SAC to 2 and Memphis stays at 8. We don’t want them getting a better lotto player.Best scenario is SAC jumps to 2 and Memphis to 4.
Kings jumping would push Memphis down to the 9 though, unless Memphis also jumps.I’d say SAC to 2 and Memphis stays at 8. We don’t want them getting a better lotto player.
So the odds of getting a top 8 pick is slightly better than a coin flip.MEM - Lottery odds of top 8/9th/10th or worse pick (% don't add to 100.0):
8. (60 combos of 1,000) 57.4%, 34.1%, 8.5%
Roughly 4 in 7 odds.So the odds of getting a top 8 pick is slightly better than a coin flip.
Good call. I’m so disappointed by these stupid coin flips that I can’t function anymore.Kings jumping would push Memphis down to the 9 though, unless Memphis also jumps.
Did the Memphis pick come in at 7?
Yeah, Boston sports fandom sucks.Good call. I’m so disappointed by these stupid coin flips that I can’t function anymore.
That’s totally what I was saying. GJGE.Yeah, Boston sports fandom sucks.
Which would you prefer:Good call. I’m so disappointed by these stupid coin flips that I can’t function anymore.
I'd take A in a heartbeat. A #3 pick in this draft is worth quite a lot, even if #9 is in the role-player division. Although there may be a drop-off after the first two picks, Ainge can probably find more than a few GMs with a high evaluation of Barrett, Reddish or Culver, and interested in trading up for #3.Which would you prefer:
a) Kings jump up to #3, Grizzlies fall to #9
or
b) Grizzlies stay at #8 and doesn't convey, Kings stay at #14?
I don't know enough about the players who could be available at 3 and 9 to know for sure, but I guess I'd take option B.
Any scenario with the Kings moving to 2-4 is jackpot for us. If that happens, I wouldn’t care about anything else. The odds of the Memphis pick landing in top 4 in 2021 are still quite low.Which would you prefer:
a) Kings jump up to #3, Grizzlies fall to #9
or
b) Grizzlies stay at #8 and doesn't convey, Kings stay at #14?
I don't know enough about the players who could be available at 3 and 9 to know for sure, but I guess I'd take option B.
Yeah, the chance of getting a #3 is the entire point of hoping the Memphis pick rolls over, so of course you take it now.I'd take A in a heartbeat. A #3 pick in this draft is worth quite a lot, even if #9 is in the role-player division.
I mean, it seemed like it. But perhaps saying you were so disappointed you couldn’t function was misinterpreted by me.That’s totally what I was saying. GJGE.
If the Kings pick lands 2-4, I'd almost prefer the Memphis pick to convey if it meant getting their intended trade target and keeping Tatum, Brown or both.Any scenario with the Kings moving to 2-4 is jackpot for us. If that happens, I wouldn’t care about anything else. The odds of the Memphis pick landing in top 4 in 2021 are still quite low.
Perhaps. Or maybe you don’t understand hyperbole.I mean, it seemed like it. But perhaps saying you were so disappointed you couldn’t function was misinterpreted by me.
This is your fault for falling down on the job prior to the coin flips.Good call. I’m so disappointed by these stupid coin flips that I can’t function anymore.
This is fair. Never leave things to chance. I still blame Wade for missing like 3 potential game winners the last week of the season. Seriously, F that guy.This is your fault for falling down on the job prior to the coin flips.
Didn't know they averaged them, good to know!The thing to remember is that we have essentially the same odds of a big jump for the SAC pick whether we got 12, 13 or 14. YraY, if it doesn't jump, we'd rather a few positions up, but because we finished tied, they averaged the ping-pong balls among the 3 of us, so the odds of a lottery win are effectively the same.
The big one we had to not-lose was Memphis, and we didnt-lose it, but didn't win, either.
Overall I put this at like 40th percentile outcome. Below average, but not by much, and definitely not a disaster.
Noted. But in fairness there was a lot of hyperbole in this thread then.Perhaps. Or maybe you don’t understand hyperbole.
Yes, and any extra ball or 2 goes to flip winner, but at that point it's not enough to really move the needle.Didn't know they averaged them, good to know!
We're really, really spoiled with the picks we've been following all year. Let's hope that we get to do it again for the next two years with the Memphis pick.Yeah, the chance of getting a #3 is the entire point of hoping the Memphis pick rolls over, so of course you take it now.
We got really, really spoiled by the Nets picks.
I'm pretty sure they could've slid to 9th and held at 8th in one. They just didn't jump up to 7.So all four picks sat at a tie, and Boston came out with the worst slot in all four of them.
The draft lottery is May 14th.
Thanks. With the threeway at 7,8,9, they got the 8. Three losses and a half out of four.I'm pretty sure they could've slid to 9th and held at 8th in one. They just didn't jump up to 7.
What do you base this on? The Grizzlies have no space to add a FA even if one choose to sign there, there are whispers of releasing Avery Bradley for salary cap purposes, Valanciunas has a player option and will surely want a long extension, and their only trade chip is their best player in Mike Conley.I want the pick to convey this season. I think Memphis will be better than 9th worst team in the league next season.
This is why we don't want the pick to convey. There is a decent chance the player selected in our slot never wears a Celtics uniform and the future pick with loosened protections carries much greater value in a trade.However, it is a better trade chit as 6 protected next year and unprotected the year after.
You win one bet, and all of a sudden you're the Grizz Whisperer?What do you base this on? The Grizzlies have no space to add a FA even if one choose to sign there, there are whispers of releasing Avery Bradley for salary cap purposes, Valanciunas has a player option and will surely want a long extension, and their only trade chip is their best player in Mike Conley.
I'd have 9th worst at the top of the Grizzlies range but if they lose Bradley and Valanciunas then you're talking about a potential Conley trade their is still potential for this pick to roll over Unprotected in 2020 while Memphis is in full rebuild mode.
This is why we don't want the pick to convey. There is a decent chance the player selected in our slot never wears a Celtics uniform and the future pick with loosened protections carries much greater value in a trade.
On the one sense, you’re right. The NBA can be weird. Nobody saw SAC winning 39 games. Not many thought the LAC pick would convey, especially after trading Harris.You win one bet, and all of a sudden you're the Grizz Whisperer?
I have no rational reason why I think they're not going to bottom out next year. I just have a feeling that if the pick doesn't convey, they'll draft a quality player to pair with JJJ, they will keep Conley, and they will manage to win 35 games next season.
On the one sense, you’re right. The NBA can be weird. Nobody saw SAC winning 39 games. Not many thought the LAC pick would convey, especially after trading Harris.
With that said, even if the Grizz don’t bottom out, then you’re basically left with a comparable pick a year from now. Wouldn’t you rather let it ride and keep the chip with the higher trade value and see if you can strike Tatum/Brown gold?
Like HRB, I think this will be a moot point anyways since I’d bet that the Pelicans own this pick in a couple months in whatever form it takes.
Haha!!You win one bet, and all of a sudden you're the Grizz Whisperer?
I have no rational reason why I think they're not going to bottom out next year. I just have a feeling that if the pick doesn't convey, they'll draft a quality player to pair with JJJ, they will keep Conley, and they will manage to win 35 games next season.
All things considered, this turned out pretty well. Of course the Kings pick was a complete disaster relative to expectations, but this was always the trickiest year for the Memphis pick, since they had both Conley and Gasol for a lot of it.Not a great outcome on the coin flips, but given how Danny evaluates college talent, I'm not sure any of if matters. He's unlikely to have the same guy in mind at #14 that the teams sitting at 12 and 13 do.
About the same chance we have for the SAC pick to jump into top 4....The odds of losing those first 3 picks like that was 5.4%. Swell.
Agreed. The Clips luck conveying takes a good amount of the sting away for me. We were very lucky there that they overperformed in a year where the Lakers fell apart.All things considered, this turned out pretty well. Of course the Kings pick was a complete disaster relative to expectations, but this was always the trickiest year for the Memphis pick, since they had both Conley and Gasol for a lot of it.
The Clippers pick was really really lucky to convey at all, and the Celtics will be picking 5-6 slots higher than most expected.