LB: Horford has spent a lot of time at center, but when he’s on the court with Joel, he’ll have to play the four. Horford-
Aron Baynes lineups appear to have been successful but in a limited sample. What do you think about the fit and how sustainable is playing Horford at the four?
MC: They rarely went to the Horford-
Baynes pair in 2018-19, but it was far more prominently featured in 2017-18, when they started together. In 1,706 possessions together, the Horford-
Baynes frontcourt posted a +12.1 net rating, per Cleaning The Glass. They were dominant defensively,
Baynes covering traditional fives and Al roaming as a versatile free safety. Offensively, Horford’s inside-outside duality allowed for a workable fit.
This year, I think they moved away from the pairing due to some limitations on Horford. Early in the year, dealing with knee injuries, Al became pretty one-dimensional on offense. He simply didn’t have the vertical pop to be a threatening vertical spacer, so the Celtics’s pick-and-roll attack became stale and predictable—Al was exclusively a popping big. Four-and-a-half-out units with Baynes and Horford became untenable on offense, as there was absolutely zero pressure on the rim. On top of that, Al’s reduced mobility made the defensive fit suboptimal.
Going forward, I have concerns about it. Horford should do fine playing the four with starting units, but the appeal of the Baynes-Horford duo was always that Al could save himself during those minutes and be fresh to play the five in crunch time. How Horford will fare in late-game situations at the four is up in the air. I’m slightly skeptical of him really holding up on switches vs. guards consistently, especially as he continues to age or if the knee issues resurface. I also worry about a repeat of the Horford-Baynes issue of not enough pressure on the rim next to
Embiid, who’s not exactly a dominant roll man either. Horford-Embiid is not a perfect fit by any means.