2019 Trade Deadline

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Plympton91

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Well for now that would have seemed like a good call. Probably would have saved some money too. Who would have been your 5th starter then? (Again, we didn't know that Eovaldi would get hurt, so you can't say, "Well we needed one anyway.") You'd have had Sale, Price, Porcello, ERod, and....whom?
Eovaldi getting hurt is as predictable as snow in Boston in February.

I would have been fine going into the season with Wright, Johnson, and Velasquez competing for the 5th spot with the Shawaryan’s of the world and a couple cheap veterans on minor league contracts.
 

SouthernBoSox

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And what you leave out regarding the rotation is Eovaldi needing elbow surgery for the second year in a row and forcing the team to use scrubs like Ryan Weber and Josh Smith, and bullpen long men like Velazquez and Brian Johnson (when he wasn't on the IL), as starters. That put additional strain on the bullpen by a) removing resources and then b) stressing the resources that remained. Even if the average innings/outs per game is only up a bit from last year's pen, it's very much about when those guys are working as well. There were probably a few stretches where a starter only going 2-3 innings forced guys to pitch who might otherwise have gotten a day off if the starter went 5-6+.

I think it's a viable argument to say that signing Eovaldi was the error rather than not signing relievers X and Y. They could have signed another starter for Eovaldi's money (say, Charlie Morton) and been in much better shape right now. Fewer innings from the scrubs and a bit less strain on the key guys.
Charlie Morton was available with a stronger track record, less term commitment, and lower AAV.
 

Plympton91

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Beni came up as a center fielder and played there about 260 games in the minors.
And at no time when he was playing there regularly was he ever described as a terrible centerfielder. But you think a context dependent counting statistic accumulated over highly disjoint small samples is representative?

If I were projecting Benintendi as a centerfielder, I’d take his left field stats and then adjust for the average difference between left field and centerfield. That would be as legitimate an estimate as you can get from defensive metrics, which, as I said, are about as reliable as +/- ratings in hockey.
 
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BaseballJones

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Eovaldi getting hurt is as predictable as snow in Boston in February.

I would have been fine going into the season with Wright, Johnson, and Velasquez competing for the 5th spot with the Shawaryan’s of the world and a couple cheap veterans on minor league contracts.
Wright was suspended 80 games going into the season. Velazquez and Johnson have been disasters. So you'd have hit on Ottavino (though he profiles very similar to Workman, who you are wary of), but missed badly on the 5th starter.

The point being: it's very very very hard to see things clearly moving forward. It's so much easier looking back and saying what anyone would have done. We are influenced by what's actually taken place. I mean, if the Sox are going to move on a reliever now, which reliever, honestly, should they go after? Who among us really can say which guy is going to perform better? That doesn't make it a total crapshoot. But it's really easy to do what you *think* is right and then it turns out badly. As I said to another poster, I advocated in the offseason for Morton. Turns out he's been really good this year, as I expected. But I also thought Brasier would be solid and that Eovaldi was a nice signing once they did it. So I'd have gotten some right and some wrong.
 

chawson

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And at no time was he ever described as a terrible centerfielder. Have you ever actually played baseball beyond little league?
Yeah man, I play all the time. How is this about me? Fenway’s center field is more difficult than most parks. At the major league level, defensive metrics rank Beni ranks fairly to significantly below average, as does the eye test, and people far smarter than me have said it too.

Serious question: are you sure he doesn’t just remind you of Yaz/Lynn/Ellsbury?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Charlie Morton was available with a stronger track record, less term commitment, and lower AAV.
The downside was his age (6 years older than Eovaldi) and Dombrowski's apparent desire to secure a more long term asset, presumably with an eye toward letting Porcello walk after this season.

My point was less that Morton was a better signing than Eovaldi (hindsight certainly backs that up though) and more that Dombrowski needed a starter for this season as much as, if not more than a reliever. So the choice wasn't Eovaldi vs re-signing Kimbrel or Kelly or both, nor was it Eovaldi vs signing Ottovino or Robertson or Britton. It was Eovaldi vs another starter plus a reliever if there was money left over. And I think there's a fair chance that the alternative to Eovaldi was another starter who would have cost similar money and left little to no cash to buy one of the front-line relievers anyway. There's no scenario where Dombrowski eschews signing a starter to sign one or more relievers. To think otherwise is living in fantasy land. He prioritized the rotation, and the guy he picked burned them (along with down performances from half of the guys already in-house).
 

nvalvo

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And at no time when he was playing there regularly was he ever described as a terrible centerfielder. But you think a context dependent counting statistic accumulated over highly disjoint small samples is representative?

If I were projecting Benintendi as a centerfielder, I’d take his left field stats and then adjust for the average difference between left field and centerfield. That would be as legitimate an estimate as you can get from defensive metrics, which, as I said, are about as reliable as +/- ratings in hockey.
Yeah man, I play all the time. How is this about me? Fenway’s center field is more difficult than most parks. At the major league level, defensive metrics rank Beni ranks fairly to significantly below average, as does the eye test, and people far smarter than me have said it too.

Serious question: are you sure he doesn’t just remind you of Yaz/Lynn/Ellsbury?
Hasn't he bulked up considerably since his rookie year? He does fine in a corner (Fangraphs has him slightly positive before the positional adjustment for LF) but I think there's a reason the team stopped playing him in CF.
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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There has been little discussion about the razor-thin margin to the upper luxury tax threshold...are they really going to incur those penalties for a marginal bullpen upgrade?
Wasn't there something in the news not long ago from a Red Sox exec that intimated that they weren't as close to the luxury tax threshold as had been reported, that there was a little more wiggle room?

They signed Eovaldi pretty fast in the offseason but kept negotiating with Ottavino right up until he signed with New York, unless I'm misremembering. They didn't really commit the money they were offering him to anyone else this year, I don't believe, so maybe they do have a little reserve for this season?
 

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Hasn't he bulked up considerably since his rookie year? He does fine in a corner (Fangraphs has him slightly positive before the positional adjustment for LF) but I think there's a reason the team stopped playing him in CF.
Can't a somewhat bulked up guy play centerfield? I think the guy in Anaheim manages okay.
 

The Needler

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His speed has also been in steep decline according to statcast (below MLB average this year), and is in the bottom quartile among all OF in their “outfield jump” metric.
 

uncannymanny

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I know that in general baseball terms 0.1 innings is 1/3 of an inning, but I clarified that I meant actual decimals, not thirds of an inning.
Derp, my bad. Are using BF to determine those?

Hasn't he bulked up considerably since his rookie year? He does fine in a corner (Fangraphs has him slightly positive before the positional adjustment for LF) but I think there's a reason the team stopped playing him in CF.
Someone here had an anecdotal post about how much bulkier he looked in spring training this season, particularly in his legs.
 

BaseballJones

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Batters faced, sorry.
Oh I'm using IP... but doing that many innings the math doesn't always come out easily in terms of an average. For example, how many innings does this guy average if he pitches three games at 5 1/3 innings, 5 2/3 innings, and 5 2/3 innings? That comes to 16 2/3 innings, divided by 3. Doesn't come out to an even third of an inning. If you turn the fractions to decimals, it's (5.333 + 5.667 + 5.667) / 3 = 5.556. So I decided to go with base-ten decimals.
 

BoSox Rule

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Hasn't he bulked up considerably since his rookie year? He does fine in a corner (Fangraphs has him slightly positive before the positional adjustment for LF) but I think there's a reason the team stopped playing him in CF.
Yeah there is an elite reason why they stopped and it has nothing to do with Benintendi.
 

chawson

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Yeah there is an elite reason why they stopped and it has nothing to do with Benintendi.
Whether his CF proficiency is real or perceived, all the more reason why he’s easily replaced in th least demanding outfield position in MLB, more valuable to another team, and worth an ace in return.
 
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Seels

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John Edwards was a great candidate for a bit.

There was also a point that it seemed like Ted Kennedy would be an eventual president, then he dropped the ball worse than Reche Caldwell.

Going back, William Jennings Bryan had a lot of popularity despite going against a Republican Party that was very hard to win against. Basically set the stage for modern campaigns.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Can't a somewhat bulked up guy play centerfield? I think the guy in Anaheim manages okay.
The guy in Anaheim is naturally big, and naturally athletic at that size (and of course, even he at 27 has finally become an ordinary baserunner and outfielder).

Did you ever watch Benintendi at Fenway his first couple of years? Guy looked like Jose Greco out there. Small and spare and dancer-quick. Here he is in 2017:



And now in 2019:



That kind of body change seems likely to take a few MPH off you.
 

Plympton91

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Yeah man, I play all the time. How is this about me? Fenway’s center field is more difficult than most parks. At the major league level, defensive metrics rank Beni ranks fairly to significantly below average, as does the eye test, and people far smarter than me have said it too.

Serious question: are you sure he doesn’t just remind you of Yaz/Lynn/Ellsbury?
He reminds me of Ellis Burks mostly.

Name something you do four days a year and have remained really good at? That’s the standard you’re using to judge Benintendi’s centerfield skills. And, as you mention, CF at fenway is really quirky, which is another reason to discount the defensive statistics calibrated to cookie cutter outfields for a player who does it a couple times every 365 days.
 

The Filthy One

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John Edwards was a great candidate for a bit.

There was also a point that it seemed like Ted Kennedy would be an eventual president, then he dropped the ball worse than Reche Caldwell.

Going back, William Jennings Bryan had a lot of popularity despite going against a Republican Party that was very hard to win against. Basically set the stage for modern campaigns.
Can we get Ted Kennedy without giving up Casas, though?
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Yep. He wasn’t coming here.
I keep reading this, but I didn't see anywhere until after he signed with the Yankees that that was where he always wanted to play. If the Sox had offered $2M more per season, I'd bet we'd be seeing posts on the Yankee fan boards that say, "Well he said he always wanted to play for the Red Sox." But.... I think DD had a number, like Lucchino before him, of what Ottavino was worth and that's what was offered. If the Yankees basically met that same number, Ottavino was going to the MFY's. So... sure... I think both offers being equal, he preferred the Yankees.... but if the Sox offered more I think he would have went with them
 

The Needler

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The guy in Anaheim is naturally big, and naturally athletic at that size (and of course, even he at 27 has finally become an ordinary baserunner and outfielder).
Trout still has elite speed (according to statcast faster than any Sox player, and faster than Mookie, JBJ or Beni have ever been) and is on pace for better baserunning RAA than any season in his last three, and top 10 among all MLB players. He’s also positive (and top 7 among all CF) according to both UZR and DRS. He’s not ordinary in any way.
 
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Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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The guy in Anaheim is naturally big, and naturally athletic at that size (and of course, even he at 27 has finally become an ordinary baserunner and outfielder).

Did you ever watch Benintendi at Fenway his first couple of years? Guy looked like Jose Greco out there. Small and spare and dancer-quick.

That kind of body change seems likely to take a few MPH off you.
Did I ever watch him? No, unfortunately, I only found out about the Red Sox last year.

I simply think that people are too quick to characterize all centerfielders as small and spare and dancer-quick. They're not.
 

DJnVa

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I keep reading this, but I didn't see anywhere until after he signed with the Yankees that that was where he always wanted to play.
He's from NY and one of his former teammates said he always wanted to play in NY.

https://www.12up.com/posts/6226639-tommy-kahnle-says-his-friend-adam-ottavino-has-always-wanted-to-play-in-new-york
And granted, this story is from after he signed but he said it was always the plan to make it happen if ever possible.

https://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/yankees/adam-ottavino-yankees-1.26434503
“So I just tried to be open-minded, but there was a small spot in my heart that really wanted to be a Yankee the whole time.”
That's partly some standard post-signing talk, but combined with talk before signing, seems like it was a factor.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Chafin is a LHP who is 0-2 with a 4.21 ERA in 36.1 IP. 107 ERA+, 11 K/9 and 3 BB/9. 1.26 WHIP and 3.70 FIP. Not exactly the upgrade they're looking for.
Not really but if he costs something like CJ Chatham, why not? Especially if they want 2 arms. At least one of the two was/is going to be a Chafin type.
 

Plympton91

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Chafin is a LHP who is 0-2 with a 4.21 ERA in 36.1 IP. 107 ERA+, 11 K/9 and 3 BB/9. 1.26 WHIP and 3.70 FIP. Not exactly the upgrade they're looking for.
Better than Brewer. Maybe that’s the only upgrade they can afford to look for. They don’t really need lefties though, with the development of Taylor and Hernandez.
 

chawson

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Chafin’s solid. He was one of the under the radar guys I hoped DD would trade for last winter. He didn’t give up a single home run last year. That’s not the case this.

However, he does seem like a very similar skill set to Taylor and Darwinzon, so maybe there’s more to the story.
 

uncannymanny

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Oh I'm using IP... but doing that many innings the math doesn't always come out easily in terms of an average. For example, how many innings does this guy average if he pitches three games at 5 1/3 innings, 5 2/3 innings, and 5 2/3 innings? That comes to 16 2/3 innings, divided by 3. Doesn't come out to an even third of an inning. If you turn the fractions to decimals, it's (5.333 + 5.667 + 5.667) / 3 = 5.556. So I decided to go with base-ten decimals.
Thanks, I didn’t mean it to sound critical. I thought you’d just overlooked it in haste, and I’m intrigued by any attempt to use something other than 0.1/0.2 IP to represent partial innings. It seems like such an odd thing that a more and more analytical sport doesn’t revisit. It doesn’t even capture the portion of outs correctly, much less partial innings of work.
 

chawson

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Damn, that’s a huge trade for Cleveland, who gets Kluber back in two weeks. Franmil is gonna hit 40 bombs a year there until mid next decade.
 

SouthernBoSox

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That's the type of savvy move that makes really well run small market teams stay really really good for a long time.
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, I love that move for CLE, now Franmil can become the full-time DH he was born to be.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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Doesn't seem like San Diego got nearly enough. Throwing in Allen really tips the scales against them. Huge trade for Cleveland. Wonder if the Sox are paying attention or are they still content pitching Brewer in late game situations
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Doesn't seem like San Diego got nearly enough. Throwing in Allen really tips the scales against them. Huge trade for Cleveland. Wonder if the Sox are paying attention or are they still content pitching Brewer in late game situations
You say this like Brewer has consistently been pitching "late game situations". He hasn't. 13 of 45 appearances entering in the 8th or later, 11 of which were before June 30 and many of which were big lead or deficit situations. In the last month, he's made two appearances (out of 12) in the 8th inning or later, both in blowout wins (7/20 in Baltimore, 7/25 against the Yankees). Seems to me they're using Brewer in a way that befits his reliability: 6th inning or earlier unless it's a blowout where they just need innings covered.

But let's not let that get in the way of the narrative that somehow Dombrowski and Cora are asleep at the wheel.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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You say this like Brewer has consistently been pitching "late game situations". He hasn't. 13 of 45 appearances entering in the 8th or later, 11 of which were before June 30 and many of which were big lead or deficit situations. In the last month, he's made two appearances (out of 12) in the 8th inning or later, both in blowout wins (7/20 in Baltimore, 7/25 against the Yankees). Seems to me they're using Brewer in a way that befits his reliability: 6th inning or earlier unless it's a blowout where they just need innings covered.

But let's not let that get in the way of the narrative that somehow Dombrowski and Cora are asleep at the wheel.
Not the case at all. But there's a reason that Cora put him in that particular situation last night. Brewer shouldn't be pitching in a big situation in AAA let alone the majors. He should have been off the team a month ago. Yet, they still trot him out there. I understand that Dombrowski might not be able to add anything due to the luxury tax and having a very weak farm system but there's literally no excuse for Brewer to be on this team anymore. None.
 

bosockboy

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Not the case at all. But there's a reason that Cora put him in that particular situation last night. Brewer shouldn't be pitching in a big situation in AAA let alone the majors. He should have been off the team a month ago. Yet, they still trot him out there. I understand that Dombrowski might not be able to add anything due to the luxury tax and having a very weak farm system but there's literally no excuse for Brewer to be on this team anymore. None.
They got 13 outs from Price. The outs have to come from somewhere. Every team in the majors has a Brewer on their team. He’s the last guy in the pen until they make an upgrade. In a perfect world Wright is healthy and productive but it just isn’t happening.
 

joe dokes

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Not the case at all. But there's a reason that Cora put him in that particular situation last night. Brewer shouldn't be pitching in a big situation in AAA let alone the majors. He should have been off the team a month ago. Yet, they still trot him out there. I understand that Dombrowski might not be able to add anything due to the luxury tax and having a very weak farm system but there's literally no excuse for Brewer to be on this team anymore. None.
Someone has to pitch the 2nd inning when the starter can't make it that far.
 
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