Betts/Price to LA for Verdugo/Jeter Downs/TBA

Status
Not open for further replies.

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
70,731
The actual medical records might have been a surprise, but both Keith Law and the Twins beat guy for the Athletic knew that Graterol was a very likely reliever when the trade was announced, they both talked about it in their trade recaps. The Twins had a media day a couple of weeks ago and the big news was just that, Graterol would be in the bullpen. You can read that as 'we need SP innings from guys now as we are going for it and we can't wait on a 21 year old's developing right now' but also MIN needs top of the rotation guys as badly as any contender, so they could have found another prospect (they have a deep system) if they really believed in Graterol as even a 2022 or 2023 possible top of the rotation option. That doesn't mean they're not wrong and Chaim and friends are right, just saying.

Also this is kind of a scary writeup, from Ray Butler at prospects365 earlier today, coincidentally the day he released #141-160 on his ongoing 200 with Brusdar at #158 and #5 in the BOS system as of now (assuming he still ends up there):

"158. Brusdar Graterol, SP/RP, BOS. Age: 21

Pre-trade write-up:
Hot take incoming: Graterol’s fastball—the triple-digit fireball that helped create the hype that landed the right-hander inside my top-100 by midseason 2018—is actually the pitch that will hinder this profile’s strikeout upside. Despite the mouth-watering velocity, the 21-year-old’s heater has poor peripherals. A low-spin offering, the pitch has well below average vertical movement, which means—because of the pitch’s above average horizontal movement—its main goal is to induce soft contact rather than to miss bats. Despite averaging 98.8 mph with the pitch in his 9.2 big league IP sample as a reliever last summer, opposing hitters did not swing and miss at the pitch a single time. The fastball could potentially have such a negative impact on the profile that it could be ditched all together in favor of a sinker. Neither offering will miss many bats, but the sinker is likely better at achieving the soft contact goal. Graterol’s moneymaker (and only elite pitch in my eyes) is his slider, an explosive, high-spin pitch that should be the protagonist in the 21-year-old’s strikeout rate at the MLB level; I gave the offering a 70-grade during my live look last spring. The analytics of the changeup aren’t great and it doesn’t yet possess the fade of its peers, but it can still be an effective pitch since Graterol maintains the same arm speed as his other pitches when he throws it. When you pair the specifics of his pitches with a projectionless, high-maintenance body and a lengthy injury history (including both elbow and shoulder ailments), you understand the significant relief risk within this profile. With the Twins in win-now mode, Graterol needs to prove the depth and viability of his arsenal sooner rather than later before his deadly slider is forced to cash checks from the bullpen for good.

Post-trade addition: Graterol being traded to Boston doesn’t change a single thing about the concerns surrounding his arsenal. It also doesn’t change the fact he’s been unable to connect the dots on consecutive healthy seasons throughout his professional career. It could, however, lengthen his leash as a rotation arm if that’s the route Boston chooses to take. At some point this season, he might slot behind Chris Sale, Eduardo Rodriguez, Nathan Eovaldi and Martin Perez on a team that won’t be seriously competing for a playoff spot. The AL East is obviously an absolute gauntlet of offensive firepower, but this scenario is about the best that Graterol dynasty owners could hope for. Boston has the developmental firepower in its front office to assist the 21-year-old in reaching both his real-life and fantasy potential, but I can’t in good conscience boost the right-hander’s ranking while banking on a complete arsenal overhaul and a change in injury fortune post-trade–especially with the same, violent head movement and front shoulder rip in his mechanics that played a lead role in his injuries both still evident today. And as a 21-year-old with a grand total 15.0 IP above Double-A, I wouldn’t bet the house on Graterol opening the season in Boston’s starting rotation. Or in the big leagues in general. That’s increasingly true if the Red Sox plan on stretching out the right-hander and rebooting his development as a potential starting pitcher, especially for a team that is seemingly headed nowhere for the next few seasons. Red Sox Rank: 5th

https://prospects365.com/2020/02/05/ray-butlers-2020-top-200-prospects-141-160/
 

Marciano490

Urological Expert
SoSH Member
Nov 4, 2007
62,312
Is a low-spin indicative of technique issue or is it genetic and more based on hand and finger size and shape and whatnot?
 

Scoops Bolling

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 19, 2007
5,874
Is a low-spin indicative of technique issue or is it genetic and more based on hand and finger size and shape and whatnot?
There is evidence that spin rates can be improved, as evidenced by the Astros (at the MLB level) and the Yankees (at the minor league level). The "how" is the secret sauce that I'm sure a lot of clubs are trying to figure out.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
70,731
I don't know the answer, probably the worse your genetics the better your technique needs to be, but I do know that MIN has one of the better current player development teams in place currently and so I would guess if they thought it was a possible technique fix, they would try to do it themselves and not move him.

Also who knows sometimes, NY couldn't wait to get rid of Lance Lynn and Sonny Gray after 2018 and they both turned into top 15 overall MLB pitchers immediately (for 2019 anyway). Martin Perez is the guy I'd be irrationally optimistic about currently if I were you guys, he looked awesome at the start of last year.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
70,731
There is evidence that spin rates can be improved, as evidenced by the Astros (at the MLB level) and the Yankees (at the minor league level).
I will try to check, but my impression is that NY has focused on spin rate a lot when drafting/signing/trading for pitchers in recent years (exit velocity for hitters), and velocity is what they have been good at somehow helping guys to add after they get into the system.

HOU was definitely spin rate improvement as the major component, Bauer and Clevinger have some thoughts on that.
 

Scoops Bolling

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 19, 2007
5,874
I am not going to lie. I want this trade to implode. It won't of course, but there is a chance...

View: https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/1225285435917819904?s=20
The Dodgers' other trade (Pederson, Stripling, and Pages for Rengifo and an unknown prospect) makes no sense to me. Rengifo looks like a utility infielder, whereas Pederson's the big side of a platoon OF (he's just unplayable against LHP), Stripling is a super useful swing man type (with FOUR years of control left), and Pages is an tooled up Cuban OF prospect on the list of lower level Dodgers prospects I was hoping we might get. Unless the unnamed prospect is a real good one, that deal is just bewildering to me.
 

Scoops Bolling

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 19, 2007
5,874
I will try to check, but my impression is that NY has focused on spin rate a lot when drafting/signing/trading for pitchers in recent years (exit velocity for hitters), and velocity is what they have been good at somehow helping guys to add after they get into the system.

HOU was definitely spin rate improvement as the major component, Bauer and Clevinger have some thoughts on that.
I could've sworn I remember reading how guys like Deivi Garcia had boosted their spin rates as part of the Yankees' development program, but that could well be inaccurate.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
70,731
The Dodgers' other trade (Pederson, Stripling, and Pages for Rengifo and an unknown prospect) makes no sense to me. Rengifo looks like a utility infielder, whereas Pederson's the big side of a platoon OF (he's just unplayable against LHP), Stripling is a super useful swing man type (with FOUR years of control left), and Pages is an tooled up Cuban OF prospect on the list of lower level Dodgers prospects I was hoping we might get. Unless the unnamed prospect is a real good one, that deal is just bewildering to me.
This is a very good point, now I am convinced it is Brandon Marsh.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
70,731
I could've sworn I remember reading how guys like Deivi Garcia had boosted their spin rates as part of the Yankees' development program, but that could well be inaccurate.
The international signing kids especially are so young when they enter the system that it's hard to disentangle normal maturing from the Yankees role, but a quick search finds this piece on Deivi from August 2018, he had just turned 19 and retired all 21 guys he faced in a high A game, 12 Ks.

"1. He’s a spin rate freak. Yes, teams have spin rate and exit velocity and all that data for the minor leagues. It’s not available freely the way big league Statcast is, but the data exists. And, according to the various scouting publications, Garcia boasts very high spin rates on both his low-to-mid-90s fastball and curveball:
  • Baseball America (subs. req’d): “(His) bread and butter is a curveball that registers a spin rate of better than 3,000 on StatCast.”
  • MLB.com: “Garcia generates tremendous spin on both his fastball and curveball … some of the best spin rates in a Yankees organization that puts a premium on them.”
For reference, only five big league pitchers are averaging better than 3,000 rpm with their curveball this season: Garrett Richards (3,252 rpm), Ryan Pressly (3,208 rpm), Seth Lugo (3,165 rpm), Chris Stratton (3,110 rpm), and Joe Kelly (3,042 rpm). Those names are a good reminder that spin rate isn’t everything. It’s not nothing either though. Spin rate is like velocity. It’s one tool in the shed."

http://riveraveblues.com/2018/08/deivi-garcia-perfect-pitching-prospect-baseball-2018-176123/
 

Marciano490

Urological Expert
SoSH Member
Nov 4, 2007
62,312
I remember an SI article about Pedro from around 2000/2001 with a picture of his fingers. They had a natural curve upwards at the tip, which the article said help explained his masterful changeup.

It’s funny, these little nonsense genetic aberrations that wouldn’t have meant anything for the first thousands of years of human history, suddenly become worth hundreds of millions of dollars and immortal acclaim.
 

richgedman'sghost

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
May 13, 2006
1,870
ct
I could care less about a trade simulator’s evaluation, any fool can look at the trade and see that the Dodgers absolutely killed it.

The Red Sox got hosed, two maybes (and one a huge risk) coming back and no one to spend their savings on for this season and few clear fits for next.

The wrecking ball is swinging and who knows where it will stop, these owners are every bit as bad as they are good.
So the Red Sox owners are cheap and worse than the Wilpons? You should be a Mets fan. At least you have four rings plus as previously mentioned the Red Sox have consistently been in the top 5 of payroll since 2003. There are alot of worse owners out there. You don't know how good you've had it until you root for the Mets. I just hate the Red Sox fans (not you specifically) who are calling Henry and Werner "cheap" and bad owners.
 

OCD SS

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
To me it looked like the Sox we’re trying to get higher upside talent in a single player, like May, rather than multiple lower level pieces , like Downs/ Ruiz. The Dodgers got Graterol as a replacement for having to include May.

The difference between a potential top starter and a bullpen arm is huge from the Sox POV, and shouldn’t be papered over so easily if the Dodgers don’t want to give up May.
 

jmm57

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
1,485
I’ve been one of the few who thought this was a homerun deal for the Sox - 5 years of a solid OF starter and a possible high upside SP who’s downside is late inning relief for one year of Betts who’s asking price was too high.

But at this point I’m even going to be annoyed if they end up with a bad character guy with a bad back, and an overweight 21 yo who’s shoulder medicals are so bad already you don’t think he’s ever going to be a starter, just because the 67th pick in the draft gets tacked on. Get May or some other combination or go back to work with other teams.
 

Tyrone Biggums

nfl meets tri-annually at a secret country mansion
SoSH Member
Aug 15, 2006
6,424
Henry will be murdered in the press for years if the Sox have the opportunity to get another prospect and the Sox choose cash.
 

OCD SS

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
And rightly so, but I’d be surprised if that’s the rout they went. I wonder if the Dodgers are willing to let this collapse over including May. Their were rumors right at the beginning that he was included, but I think Friedman is too disciplined, and the Twins don’t have enough to make up the difference.
 

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
23,692
Miami (oh, Miami!)
I remember an SI article about Pedro from around 2000/2001 with a picture of his fingers. They had a natural curve upwards at the tip, which the article said help explained his masterful changeup.

It’s funny, these little nonsense genetic aberrations that wouldn’t have meant anything for the first thousands of years of human history, suddenly become worth hundreds of millions of dollars and immortal acclaim.
Someone posted this recently:

View: https://www.ted.com/talks/david_epstein_are_athletes_really_getting_faster_better_stronger?language=en
 

Shaky Walton

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 20, 2019
717
Meanwhile, no "smear campaign" has emerged from the Globe or anywhere else. I think that the existence of same is overblown and many former employees have left without them. Even Johnny Damon left with nothing but praises coming out of the team, with the fans reacting negatively on their own.

But I think some expected to read how Mookie was a bad seed who would never sign in Boston. If anything, we're getting the opposite. Jim Rice just relayed that Mookie wanted to stay.

Sure, some have pointed out that Mookie wanted $420 mm and the gap between him and the Sox was quite wide. But that seems factual to me and not in the nature of a hit job.
 

Stirner

New Member
Apr 21, 2011
6
Like many of you, I'm disappointed to see Betts go. He's been a prospect binkie of mine since he was drafted, and he's become everything I thought he'd become in a player and more.Obviously, it's upsetting that Betts priced himself out of our market and that several bad deals -- like the Sale and Eovaldi extensions -- may have been the difference between him staying on this team for life or swapping laundry as he's doing now. However, there's nothing in Chaim's background to suggest that he's just moving Betts (and Price) for the sake of moving them. He wouldn't have waited this long, for this return, if he didn't think it was the best package offered to the team. I really don't think we'll be able to evaluate this trade fairly for a few years to see what Graterol becomes and whether Verdugo's emergence last year as a borderline all-star level talent is real.
 

AlexCorasFilmRoom

New Member
Jan 31, 2020
69
Meanwhile, no "smear campaign" has emerged from the Globe or anywhere else. I think that the existence of same is overblown and many former employees have left without them. Even Johnny Damon left with nothing but praises coming out of the team, with the fans reacting negatively on their own.

But I think some expected to read how Mookie was a bad seed who would never sign in Boston. If anything, we're getting the opposite. Jim Rice just relayed that Mookie wanted to stay.

Sure, some have pointed out that Mookie wanted $420 mm and the gap between him and the Sox was quite wide. But that seems factual to me and not in the nature of a hit job.
The deal isn't complete yet. Wait till Mookie reports to the Dodgers and gets introduced. I'm sure that the article will paint John Henry in a very positive light and make David Price and or Mookie the villain in the story.
 

amRadio

New Member
Feb 7, 2019
798
If all we get is further relief on Price's salary, I'm going to have a hard time accepting that. No way can we trade Mookie for a low character OFer with a potentially chronic back problem and a reliever. That would be absolutely insane.
 

Teachdad46

New Member
Oct 14, 2011
128
Vermont
I remember an SI article about Pedro from around 2000/2001 with a picture of his fingers. They had a natural curve upwards at the tip, which the article said help explained his masterful changeup.

It’s funny, these little nonsense genetic aberrations that wouldn’t have meant anything for the first thousands of years of human history, suddenly become worth hundreds of millions of dollars and immortal acclaim.
I recall that photo and that article. In it Pedro spoke of those fingertips being the last part of his release and how he could make the ball do different things by just wiggling one of them in a certain way as the ball left his hand ...it was tres cool..
 

Shaky Walton

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 20, 2019
717
The deal isn't complete yet. Wait till Mookie reports to the Dodgers and gets introduced. I'm sure that the article will paint John Henry in a very positive light and make David Price and or Mookie the villain in the story.
Yeah, I doubt it. The Globe take has been consistently negative on the deal and on the team's decision making. We shall see.
 

Green Monster

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 29, 2000
2,277
CT
At this point it would seem the options are:

- Dodgers keep Graterol and send Gonsolin/May to Boston
- Dodgers include Downs in package
- Price subsidy reduced
- Twins swap prospects

I would personally be happy with either 1 or 2, assuming Graterol is not so severely injured that he needs another surgery ( in the case of option 2).
 

Tyrone Biggums

nfl meets tri-annually at a secret country mansion
SoSH Member
Aug 15, 2006
6,424
At this point it would seem the options are:

- Dodgers keep Graterol and send Gonsolin/May to Boston
- Dodgers include Downs in package
- Price subsidy reduced
- Twins swap prospects

I would personally be happy with either 1 or 2, assuming Graterol is not so severely injured that he needs another surgery ( in the case of option 2).
1 or 2 are probably pipe dreams but most likely drastically alters the opinion of many on this board regarding the deal. It turns a trash deal into a solid one. May would turn it into a very good deal.
 
Last edited:

amRadio

New Member
Feb 7, 2019
798
If getting fair return is a pipe dream, here's hoping John Henry has the stones to cancel this thing.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,376
So the Dodgers made that second deal with the luxury tax in mind (is my understanding), because of the salary they're taking on in Mookie and 1/2 of Price. If that's so, and this deal falls through, does the other deal still "count"? I ask this because normally I'd say that the Dodgers have all the leverage here - honestly, they don't *need* Mookie in order to make another WS run - but if they made another trade that maybe they'd rather not have made, only to help with the luxury tax, then they're a little over the barrel and maybe the Sox have leverage to pry another piece from LA here.
 

Minneapolis Millers

Wants you to please think of the Twins fans!
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
4,753
Twin Cities
If the problem is with Graterol, then the additional value needs to come from the Twins. I don’t see why LA would take less money; that’s just them effectively paying more than Maeda for damaged goods. But I suppose they could take a couple mil less to convince Boston to accept and the Twins to offer to add in a lesser prospect (quantity in place of the desired quality).

I’m not sure that works for Chaim. I think LA brought MN into the deal because Boston wanted a high ceiling close-to-ready starter, LA didn’t want to deal May, and Graterol fit the bill and could be had for value MN wanted and Boston didn’t (Maeda). MN doesn’t have another SP prospect like Graterol, so unless Boston would take an extra lesser part (Thorpe?), MN’s role in this could fall apart.

More simply, they could drop MN out and LA could cave on May or Boston could take Gonsolin and maybe send a little less cash on Price. But Chaim saw Gonsolin as a good enough second piece, I don’t think MN would have ever entered this picture.

It’ll come down to who’s most motivated to seal the deal. Maybe that’s LA (although to BaseballJones’s point, I have to think their 2d deal is contingent on the first going through.)
 

JimD

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 29, 2001
8,681
Meanwhile, no "smear campaign" has emerged from the Globe or anywhere else. I think that the existence of same is overblown and many former employees have left without them. Even Johnny Damon left with nothing but praises coming out of the team, with the fans reacting negatively on their own.

But I think some expected to read how Mookie was a bad seed who would never sign in Boston. If anything, we're getting the opposite. Jim Rice just relayed that Mookie wanted to stay.

Sure, some have pointed out that Mookie wanted $420 mm and the gap between him and the Sox was quite wide. But that seems factual to me and not in the nature of a hit job.
The smear campaigns seem to have ended after Lucchino left the team and The Dentist followed him out the door.
 

HurstSoGood

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2006
2,181
If anyone is upset with Mookie and wants to get rid of their Betts jersey, please PM me. I'll gladly take it off your hands. I'll even sweeten the deal by throwing in a baseball autographed by Red Sox Legend Wendell Kim.

Mookie is a once in a generation talent AND once in a generation human being. Its going to suck losing both those qualities.
 

AlexCorasFilmRoom

New Member
Jan 31, 2020
69
If anyone is upset with Mookie and wants to get rid of their Betts jersey, please PM me. I'll gladly take it off your hands. I'll even sweeten the deal by throwing in a baseball autographed by Red Sox Legend Wendell Kim.

Mookie is a once in a generation talent AND once in a generation human being. Its going to suck losing both those qualities.
How can people be upset at Mookie? He has every right to go out and get what he thinks he is worth. I'm not even annoyed at the Sox trading him. I get it. What I don't get is why settle on some craptastic package just so you can dump David Price? Even if you couldn't dump Price, Mookie was making 27 million. You could have maneuvered some things and get it to 203-205
 

Ale Xander

Hamilton
SoSH Member
Oct 31, 2013
72,464
I'm starting to get concerned Bloom and the front office may be lacking in some due diligence skills.
 

manny

New Member
Jul 24, 2005
266

Salem's Lot

Andy Moog! Andy God Damn Moog!
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
14,465
Gallows Hill
I read speculation on Twitter that they may not like Graterol's medicals at all and are leaking the reliever stuff so as to not completely crap on Graterol. Sounds reasonable but who knows.
Then just kill the deal if you don’t like the medicals at all. What are we doing here?
 

Rough Carrigan

reasons within Reason
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
The smear campaigns seem to have ended after Lucchino left the team and The Dentist followed him out the door.
It's hard not to believe that Larry Lucchino, who learned the District of Corruption's leak info to attack your opponents game from Edward Bennett Williams, wasn't the man behind it and the Dentist just his conduit.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
70,731
Then just kill the deal if you don’t like the medicals at all. What are we doing here?
I think the problem is no one else is going to take on $43M of salary for Betts/Price at this point of the offseason, and it's risky for BOS to wait until midseason because there's no guarantee any team besides LAD will be able to do it then either.
 

CoffeeNerdness

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 6, 2012
8,714
Sox look a bit bad here on Graterol just because him being a likely reliever going forward was common knowledge before the deal, as I wrote here last night.

View: https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1225433186123091968
It's one thing that an organization wants to tactically put him in the relief role. It's a whole other ball of wax if his new organization is forced to employ him in a relief role because of medical concerns. I don't think it reflects at all poorly on Bloom/Red Sox that they'd want to work with a 21 year old and see if they can get the most value out of him as a starter. If they look at his medicals now and see that starting may not be a role that's feasible then clearly that changes the calculus and we've reached the point we have. Saying 'duh they shoulda picked up a paper' like those Tweets says in order to imply that they're bumbling their way through this is stupid. Not surprised to see Heyman's handle attached to this. In fact if you dig into the article the quotes from the Twins suggest that they'd be using the relief role to clean up his delivery in order to help him become a more successful/healthy starter.


“We feel that because it is such a violent delivery, if we can clean up some arm stuff, that’s kind of like step one,” Johnson said. “Shorter stints, make sure he’s throwing the right way, and let him get comfortable up here. Right now, I don’t think it would be fair to throw him out there for extended innings.”
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 10, 2006
2,493
Scituate, MA
I remember an SI article about Pedro from around 2000/2001 with a picture of his fingers. They had a natural curve upwards at the tip, which the article said help explained his masterful changeup.

It’s funny, these little nonsense genetic aberrations that wouldn’t have meant anything for the first thousands of years of human history, suddenly become worth hundreds of millions of dollars and immortal acclaim.
Remember Antonio Alfonseca who had extra digits? Georgie Porgie wanted to have them removed.
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
30,243
Then just kill the deal if you don’t like the medicals at all. What are we doing here?
Because I still want to buy your house, even though the toilets dont work right now. And you want to sell it. What will you do to keep me in the deal. The Sox want to make a deal. LA wants to make a deal.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.