What SI obviously knows that you gentlemen do not is that Stidham won't succeed and it's Hoyer who brings them to the playoff run ... thus the need to draft a QB
2020 Pats: QB Edition
- Thread starter tims4wins
- Start date
The $ may not be coming in on the Pats. There are two sets of odds - the initial odds set by the book, and where they land after bettors have their say. I don't know if these odds were taken at open or later, but Fan Duel often sets horrific lines.
If Cam's agent called the Pats and said, "Cam wants to play for a one year $4 or $5 million 'prove-it' type deal to help win a Super Bowl and set up a longer contract somewhere else in 2021", which would allow Jarrett one more year to develop, I 100% believe the Pats would take a one year shot (and obviously would have to find some cap space). But I have no reason to believe that Cam would ever take that big a pay cut. His idea of a 'prove it' deal is still probably well over $10mill/yr, and thats a (justifiable IMO) non starter
I know it worked before with some big personalities, but it's really hard to picture Cam Newton successfully working in the Belichick system.
To play devil’s advocate, if Cam came here and kicked ass, why wouldn’t we want to commit to him for a few years? Cap space wouldn’t be an issue next offseason.
WEEI afternoon show gleefully (rightfully) chiding Rappaport for his Patriots draft QB predictions
I'll argue the other side of this, and say that it all depends on Cam's physical and his salary demands.
If Newton gets a clean bill of health and is willing to sign a reasonable, one year prove-it deal, the Pats would be crazy not to go after him. I think it depends more on Cam than the QBs the Pats already have, which would have to be one of the worst groups of QBs in the league, no matter how high one might be on their stash of Stidham. And I say that as someone who is generally bullish on Stidham.
Even if the Pats genuinely feel like Stidham is the second coming, he's never started an NFL game in his life. Let alone go through a full season (though this season may not be so full). I also don't buy that they're punting 2020, because that doesn't seem to be in Belichick's nature.
If Cam is there for the taking, you take him and don't think twice. It's not like Stidham is going anywhere. That option will be on the table either way.
Maybe, but my guess is Cam would want to maximize his contract and I doubt that would be in NE.
I visited the future.
It’s the result of a trade. Pick # 6 for #26 and #58.
Your post after the trade was announced was not pretty.
Dear god if they traded 6 for 26 and 58 it would be one of the worst trades of all time
Ha, that is just awful. It would be a loss of 580 on the Draft Tek chart or effectively giving #32 pick away in value.
Yup. That’s what you said. I think there was some reclamation project defensive lineman in there as well.
I forgot that if they sign Newton for one year and then let him go and he signs elsewhere, it's a likely 3rd round pick coming to NE. So if they can swing it, it's a way to probably be better in 2020 and grab a free third rounder in 2022 for the trouble, while giving Stidham another year to learn.
I still don't think it happens though.
I still don't think it happens though.
See what you have with Stidham. I don't think this roster can beat BAL, KC, SF, DAL, or NO at a minimum. GB, TN, TB, BUF, SEA, and IND are probably at least as good. Even with a 'healthy' Cam, what can you really expect if the best offensive weapon you give him is... a 34 year old Edelman? CMC isn't walking through that door.
The roster is aging, let's evaluate what we have. I can't see Belichick tanking, but I do think he understands the value of giving Stidham leash vs an aging Cam buying you ~1-2 more wins. It's easier to get yourself a Justin Fields if you're picking at #10 vs at #18.
The roster is aging, let's evaluate what we have. I can't see Belichick tanking, but I do think he understands the value of giving Stidham leash vs an aging Cam buying you ~1-2 more wins. It's easier to get yourself a Justin Fields if you're picking at #10 vs at #18.
The roster is "aging"? Well....in one sense every roster is aging. But they just added a crap ton of young guys, and got rid of/lost their two oldest guys. The roster in 2020-21 will be significantly younger than it was in 2019-20.
The "roster is aging" is an accurate description, given that most of the remaining contributors from last season (Edelman, Hightower, McCourty twins, Chung) are all at the 17th hole of their careers. Even the OL with Cannon, Mason, Thuney and Andrews isn't particularly young anymore.
Do you think the overall roster will be older or younger than this past season?
The players you listed are still really good, btw.
The overall age will likely be younger (with the caveat that there's still a long way to go before we reach the final 53). But whether the younger players are any good is still an unknown.
Any of those players listed are candidates for falling off a cliff. Jerod Mayo was really good until his final season, when he was just OK. I'm fairly convinced we got to watch Jamie Collins' cliff happen during the season last year. Corey Dillon fell off a cliff. It's fairly common in football.
They're going to be younger and faster and more athletic. Does that mean they'll be better? Well, incorporating lots of younger players generally means less experience, especially in your system, and they lost the greatest player ever to play the game. So I expect this team to be worse than last year's team.
But if Stidham can be pretty decent, I think they'll be very competitive and a real pain in the ass to play.
Curran
Enough with the Cam Newton chatter already
Cam Newton isn’t in the Patriots plans. Wasn’t before the draft. Isn’t going to be after the draft. Have I checked to make sure? Yes I have. Besides, they have like 14 bucks of cap space left (actually, $1.077M, which is 31st in the NFL).
You think Cam is going to come in and play for free? Or for less than Marcus Mariota agreed to with the Raiders as Derek Carr’s backup ($7.5M this year)? No. No he’s not.
Was he a brilliant player in 2015 and before? Yes. But he’s 23-23 as a starter since, his arm’s turned to junk and he’s never been a terribly accurate or careful thrower.
Just because someone sitting at a desk near a New Jersey horse track says, “Hey, the Patriots don’t have an established starter, let’s see if we can get people to part with their money on odds Cam goes there?”, logic doesn’t have to take a holiday.
Enough with the Cam Newton chatter already
Cam Newton isn’t in the Patriots plans. Wasn’t before the draft. Isn’t going to be after the draft. Have I checked to make sure? Yes I have. Besides, they have like 14 bucks of cap space left (actually, $1.077M, which is 31st in the NFL).
You think Cam is going to come in and play for free? Or for less than Marcus Mariota agreed to with the Raiders as Derek Carr’s backup ($7.5M this year)? No. No he’s not.
Was he a brilliant player in 2015 and before? Yes. But he’s 23-23 as a starter since, his arm’s turned to junk and he’s never been a terribly accurate or careful thrower.
Just because someone sitting at a desk near a New Jersey horse track says, “Hey, the Patriots don’t have an established starter, let’s see if we can get people to part with their money on odds Cam goes there?”, logic doesn’t have to take a holiday.
Belichick with the Pats but no Brady (since TB became the starter)....
2008: 11-5 (Brady played so little before getting hurt, that I'm giving the win to Cassel)
2016: 3-1
TOT: 14-6
Note: I'm not giving JG the loss in the final 2014 game vs. Buffalo (17-9 loss) even though Brady didn't play much, because Brady played the entire first half and they were down 17-6 when he left. That's not on JG.
So on the one hand, this seems pretty good, right? But then consider that the 2008 team was *loaded*, played an easy schedule, and dropped 5 games from the previous year. But the 2016 team did well without Brady, and even the game they lost featured Brissett at QB for the whole game, a rookie who was playing with a broken hand and had no backup, so everything was super conservative.
So can BB win without Brady? Well, sure, he's done it before. I don't expect a team that plays at a .700 clip, especially against the schedule they'll be facing next season. But could they win 9-10 games? It's entirely possible, yes.
2008: 11-5 (Brady played so little before getting hurt, that I'm giving the win to Cassel)
2016: 3-1
TOT: 14-6
Note: I'm not giving JG the loss in the final 2014 game vs. Buffalo (17-9 loss) even though Brady didn't play much, because Brady played the entire first half and they were down 17-6 when he left. That's not on JG.
So on the one hand, this seems pretty good, right? But then consider that the 2008 team was *loaded*, played an easy schedule, and dropped 5 games from the previous year. But the 2016 team did well without Brady, and even the game they lost featured Brissett at QB for the whole game, a rookie who was playing with a broken hand and had no backup, so everything was super conservative.
So can BB win without Brady? Well, sure, he's done it before. I don't expect a team that plays at a .700 clip, especially against the schedule they'll be facing next season. But could they win 9-10 games? It's entirely possible, yes.
They have younger and faster players... on defense. But on both sides of the ball they're mid round picks that aren't going to contribute much outside special teams. They didn't get faster at the WR spot (in fact, due to the continued aging of their top two receivers they're going to be even slower than last year's slow group). Touchdowns are going to be hard to come by next year. Hopefully the rookie K is good, because he's their default offensive MVP.
Would you guys rather have Dalton or Hoyer as the backup? Hoyer has experience in the system and with the organization, but Dalton is probably the better player. Forget money for a second because I bet Dalton could be had for a song at this point.
They need Hoyer on this team IMO given the COVID situation. Have to have a guy who knows the playbook inside and out.
Why not kick the tires on Dalton? Would not be the first time a seemingly washed up QB had a solid second act. The cost is nil and the other option is handing the keys to Stidham without a fight.
He spent his entire career so far in one place, with a coaching staff ranging from dysfunctional to average. Josh and Bill might be able to squeeze some juice out of his talent.
He spent his entire career so far in one place, with a coaching staff ranging from dysfunctional to average. Josh and Bill might be able to squeeze some juice out of his talent.
If the market for Dalton or Newton was similar to Winston's, and they can sign one of them for backup qb money and a promise of an open competition to be the starter, sure why not, if they're looking for even bad starter money then it's not worth whatever you'd have to do to the rest of the roster to fit them in under the cap.
Man I feel like people are under estimating Dalton because he played for such a garbage franchise.
He would be an instant upgrade on Hoyer, and in the event Stidham sucks or gets hurt - he could easily Trent Dilfer the Patriots in the playoffs.
He would be an instant upgrade on Hoyer, and in the event Stidham sucks or gets hurt - he could easily Trent Dilfer the Patriots in the playoffs.
Last year he was bad, but as recently as 2 seasons ago he wasn't bad, as these things go. The 2 seasons before last, he had a 2:1 TD/INT ratio. That's a drop from what we're used to obviously.
But, the question is, can Stidham do want a normal Dalton season was? 20ish TDs, 3500 yards, 63% completion percentage? I think....yes.
Dalton is almost certainly better than Hoyer but the various hurdles with trying to integrate a new QB into the system with minimal offseason activities doesn't seem like a path to success. I'd ride with Stidham/Hoyer and then regroup after the season.
The reason they never reached their full potential is a lot more on him than the supporting cast (plus he was hurt for the playoff game on their best team). There's no vintage Green to bail him out or Whitworth to allow near zero pressure in New England. He's always been a product of his supporting cast, so it's up to you to decide how good that will be.
On phone but per a reporter from the Cincy Enquirer, the Jags and Pats are among the teams interested in Dalton. Makes sense at worst from a due diligence perspective. Now doing the due diligence...
Fun fact, or maybe not so fun fact for whoever signs him
View: https://twitter.com/johnbreech/status/1255867351305682944
"
Almost impossible to believe Andy Dalton stat: During his nine years in Cincinnati, Dalton NEVER threw a single pass in the playoffs while the Bengals had the lead. That's zero out of 158. #Bengals #RedRifle #CarrotTopCannon"
I'll admit that the Cinci taint gives me a tiny bit of pause, but two counterpoints:
1. Did Dalton ever make his teammates better? QBs are dependent on a lot of other people around them, sure, but the good ones get the most out of their teammates as well. I think it's hard to argue that Dalton accomplished that with the Bengals.
2. Dalton will be 33 years old this season. Maybe 5-6 years ago he'd have a better chance at being salvaged, but it's harder to teach an old dog new tricks.
I think Dalton is who he is, and that's not somebody with very much upside. Even if Dalton can be competent and the team goes 9-7 and loses in the first round of the playoffs, does that really accomplish anything? I'd rather they just throw Stidham in there, let him take his lumps, and see how he handles it.
At least Cam Newton has some upside. I don't see it with Dalton.
Dalton is a better QB than is usually available. Cam too.
If I am their agents though I do not let them sign cheap or go to a bad situation without a good amount of money. I certainly don’t let them take the Hoyer spot for what the Pats can afford in their cap situation. I tell them to sit tight and not settle. Yet. Even if it is week 5 to 8 someone will need a QB of their levels and there will be demand. There pretty much always is.
If I am their agents though I do not let them sign cheap or go to a bad situation without a good amount of money. I certainly don’t let them take the Hoyer spot for what the Pats can afford in their cap situation. I tell them to sit tight and not settle. Yet. Even if it is week 5 to 8 someone will need a QB of their levels and there will be demand. There pretty much always is.
Two of the current Patriot skill players - Burkhead and Sanu - were Bengals when Dalton had his best season in 2015. Interesting.
On a related note, I would take his 2015 over anything we're ever going to get from Hoyer. No idea what Stidham's 2020 ceiling looks like, but Dalton would push him more than Hoyer.
Also, come on...give us a whole year of Road House jokes.
On a related note, I would take his 2015 over anything we're ever going to get from Hoyer. No idea what Stidham's 2020 ceiling looks like, but Dalton would push him more than Hoyer.
Also, come on...give us a whole year of Road House jokes.