Celtics-Raptors 2nd Round--Dethrone the Champs

the moops

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The Celtics clearly have the best 2 players in this series, and may have the best 3 in this particular matchup.
I don't think this is clear at all. Siakam had a terrible game, and maybe his entire year was a fluke, or BOS really is a bad matchup for him, but it is too early to tell definitively.

And maybe I am too much of a Lowry fan, but I have him in same tier as Kemba and Brown.

Tatum/Siakam
Kemba/Lowry/Brown
Smart/Ibaka/VanVleet

And also - Gasol looks really old and really slow these days
 

RorschachsMask

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I’d rank it Tatum>>Lowry=>Kemba>Siakam>Jaylen>FVV>Smart.

Siakam has really struggled as the season has gone on. He’s just not a #1 option, and his defense isn’t what it was before he took on the increased offensive workload.
 

chilidawg

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any chance for a short summary for those who don't have a subscription?

Maybe one part is how Brad forced Pascal to score 1 v 1 against JB, Grant, Marcus, and JT after preventing early offense (stopping transition)?

And a second part is keeping the ball moving on offense so TOR can't load up on scorers?

Interested in hearing what the main points are if you don't mind.
My main takeaway was that the C's were attacking off the dribble and the PnR from the top of the key. Toronto would "pinch" down from the wings, opening up the corner 3. If they covered the corner 3, usually there was a lane down the middle open. C's shot 10/15 on corner 3's, Toronto 2/6. Not much about how the Celtics defended Toronto.

The disparity in corner shots helps explain why the C's shot so much better from 3 for the game, and if they continue to get those looks I think that difference in shooting % is more sustainable than you'd think at first glance.
 

InstaFace

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Interesting stat that Siakam is only 47.4 eFG% in the halfcourt. The Celtics are a good transition defense, and he's had a rough time against them as a result.

The Celtics clearly have the best 2 players in this series, and may have the best 3 in this particular matchup. That's just a really tough talent disadvantage to dig out of.
I think it would be very revealing for us to revisit (or discover an article that visits) the question of "how the hell did Toronto blow away the Bucks in 6 last year, especially after losing the first 2?"

Looking at the series stats, three things are clear:

1. Lowry shot out of his mind, with a .709 TS% / .657 eFG%, averaging 19.2 pts/gm.
2. Even so, Kawhi basically bossed the entire series, was the leading scorer in 5 out of the 6 games (30 pts / gm!), played 42 minutes / game, and lit up the stat sheet to the point where Giannis only stands out for defensive rebounding.
3. We have no idea, just from the stats, the extent to which Kawhi's presence enabled them to contain Giannis. And that deserves more careful study, because it suggests how they might fare if they come back, beat us, and get a rematch vs MIL.

Basically, to what extent was their defensive excellence in that series down to scheme, rather than just having Kawhi as its own form of cheat code? Kawhi isn't a physical freak in quite the same way as Giannis or (say) Anthony Davis, he's got still-within-the-bounds-of-normal-NBA size, speed, strength, etc. His extraordinary value comes from defensive intensity, offensive awareness and decision-making, clutch shooting / playmaking, conditioning, and other things that are more mental and training-related than genetic. Theoretically, if a lot of the Raptors' success in that series last year came from scheme, then trying to repeat it with a slightly older/better Siakam and great supporting cast stands more of a chance than if they were relying on hero ball and an offensive cheat code that's now departed.
 

tmracht

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any chance for a short summary for those who don't have a subscription?

Maybe one part is how Brad forced Pascal to score 1 v 1 against JB, Grant, Marcus, and JT after preventing early offense (stopping transition)?

And a second part is keeping the ball moving on offense so TOR can't load up on scorers?

Interested in hearing what the main points are if you don't mind.
Want a 30 day sub link?
 

DJnVa

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Siakam has really struggled as the season has gone on. He’s just not a #1 option, and his defense isn’t what it was before he took on the increased offensive workload.
Post injury his shooting has dropped off---prior to he was near 40% on three points. Since his return he's shot 33% from deep, 25% in the playoffs.

His overall shooting in the bubble has dropped to 41% and his rebounding is way down as well.
 

nighthob

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I don't think this is clear at all. Siakam had a terrible game, and maybe his entire year was a fluke, or BOS really is a bad matchup for him, but it is too early to tell definitively.
It wasn’t a fluke, he’s a great transition player that struggles in the halfcourt. If Toronto had Kawhi, it would be a different story, but they don’t. So they need Lowry to get Siakam good shots in the halfcourt, and Lowry’s hurting.
 

NomarsFool

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TimeLord looked great. My expectation is that Nurse will spend all day today figuring out how to neutralize him and Brad Stevens will have Kanter be the first C of the bench tomorrow and he'll dominate in half-court :)
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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It wasn’t a fluke, he’s a great transition player that struggles in the halfcourt. If Toronto had Kawhi, it would be a different story, but they don’t. So they need Lowry to get Siakam good shots in the halfcourt, and Lowry’s hurting.
Correct - this is who Siakam is.

Again, Toronto was 14th in halfcourt offense this season and 18th if you changed from possessions to plays.

According to Cleaning the Glass, the Raptors had the 14th-best half-court offense in the league this year. 18th-best if you fiddle with the numbers to account for points per 100 plays rather than points per 100 possessions (pp100p), thus accounting for Toronto’s intentionally anemic offensive rebounding.
For those unfamiliar, the bold refers to the commonly held view that transition defense is more important than the value of an offensive rebound. Defenders are instructed to sprint back as soon as the shot goes up.
 

radsoxfan

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Since I was over at 538, just flipped over to their RAPTOR individual stats. Interesting to see their overall rankings.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-player-ratings/
Tatum 5.8
Kemba 5.2
Lowry 4.4
Van Vleet 3.3
Smart 2.8
Kanter 2.6
Hollis-Jefferson 2.6
T.Davis 2.0
Gasol 1.7
Brown 1.1
Hayward 1.1
Theis 1.0
Anunoby 1.0
Siakam 0.9
Powell 0.7
Ibaka -0.4
Wannamaker -0.8
G. Williams -0.8
Ojeleye -1.4

Not to take these as gospel by any means, but the Celtics have the 2 best and 3 worst players they have ranked.
Kanter, Hollis-Jefferson, and Davis stand out as higher than most would rate them.
Siakam, Ibaka, Brown and probably Hayward lower.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Thanks radsox.

Even upgrading Wanamaker's spot (I am on record in this forum not loving him but I am also not picking on him. He isn't a rookie like Granite or a specific instrument like Semi) would be huge if its done for offense. He is below average in just about every shooting category except, obviously FTs and certain situational shooting rankings.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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He's shooting 36% from 3, and his 48% from 2 is better than either Kemba or Smart. Turnovers are his biggest issue, and that might be big against aggressive ballhawks like VV and Lowry.
His shooting from three is league average and he and Walker are essentially tied in 2p FG% given usage etc. That said, I know nobody here is suggesting that he and Kemba are even similar as shooters. Wanamaker is actually an NBA player and has role on a bench. IMO, its not his current role as the third and, in some cases, second ballhandler for a team with championship aspirations. He isn't good at offense aside from free throwing unless you want a guy who comes in and hits midranges and spot up threes (essentially the easiest three there is - if his ability to hit spot ups is the reason you are keeping him, you may want to rethink your roster construction) at below average and league average rates respectively.
 

benhogan

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any chance for a short summary for those who don't have a subscription?

Maybe one part is how Brad forced Pascal to score 1 v 1 against JB, Grant, Marcus, and JT after preventing early offense (stopping transition)?

And a second part is keeping the ball moving on offense so TOR can't load up on scorers?

Interested in hearing what the main points are if you don't mind.
here are some highlights/excerpts from the CBS article:

Brad Stevens gave his team very clear instructions Sunday morning.

“Isolation is not the answer,” the Celtics coach said. “They just load up on you. So the ball has to pop. You have to move. You have to find a great shot when you can, and you have to be patient enough to find it.”

The Celtics did not run an isolation by design until the end of the third quarter of Game 1

On the first play against Toronto, it became clear Boston was going to use the elbows to try to force the Raptors defense into some impossible positions. But to understand why it happened, you have to get to know Nurse’s defensive philosophy.

The Raptors’ brilliance on defense is tripartite: equal parts communication, aggression and persistence. They take more risks than almost any defense we have seen in the modern era but rarely find themselves compromised. They start with a hybrid switching scheme that always has them in some blend of switching, zoning and dropping, which are usually mutually exclusive for most teams. But the Raptors have been historically innovative in executing a system where they will switch certain pick-and-rolls while having a big dropping into the lane or a defender coming in to “pinch” the ballhandler. Toronto is as good as it gets at talking through all of these switches and traps without getting lost once it goes into rotation.

As the Raptors continued to blitz Walker over his screens, Theis kept setting them way out near the sideline. While it put a lot of pressure on Walker to beat the coverage, the Celtics kept finding ways to draw that pinch and hit what was still often a contested 3. It wasn’t perfect by any means, as the Raptors hit one more 3 than Boston (eight to seven), but it took them 10 more attempts. The difference came in the corners, where the Celtics shot 10-for-15 while the Raptors went just 2-for-6. When the offense continued to apply pressure down the seams, the Raptors mixed up the defenders they would send to pinch at the top of the arc, whether it be from the elbow or even from underneath the play. No matter if it was the Celtics starters or the second unit with Robert Williams on the roll, Boston kept finding gaps and opening up the elbows and corners. Whenever Toronto got too aggressive loading up, Boston would make it pay.

The Celtics had a disconcerting 23 turnovers in this game, but the Raptors only scored seven fast-break points. Since Toronto creating transition points off turnovers was such a big storyline coming into the series, Stevens was asked about this stat. He said he didn’t know why it was so anomalous, but suspected it was misleading. The twist is that it’s not the lack of fast-break points that was misleading, as Stevens suspected, but rather the fact that only 10 of Boston’s turnovers were in live-action and Toronto only scored off of four of them.


I would highly recommend any hardcore C's fan to subscribe.

Weiss/King are consistently excellent.
Lots of videos to support their commentary/analysis
 
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wade boggs chicken dinner

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here are some highlights/excerpts from the CBS article:

Brad Stevens gave his team very clear instructions Sunday morning.

“Isolation is not the answer,” the Celtics coach said. “They just load up on you. So the ball has to pop. You have to move. You have to find a great shot when you can, and you have to be patient enough to find it.”

The Celtics did not run an isolation by design until the end of the third quarter of Game 1

On the first play against Toronto, it became clear Boston was going to use the elbows to try to force the Raptors defense into some impossible positions. But to understand why it happened, you have to get to know Nurse’s defensive philosophy.

The Raptors’ brilliance on defense is tripartite: equal parts communication, aggression and persistence. They take more risks than almost any defense we have seen in the modern era but rarely find themselves compromised. They start with a hybrid switching scheme that always has them in some blend of switching, zoning and dropping, which are usually mutually exclusive for most teams. But the Raptors have been historically innovative in executing a system where they will switch certain pick-and-rolls while having a big dropping into the lane or a defender coming in to “pinch” the ballhandler. Toronto is as good as it gets at talking through all of these switches and traps without getting lost once it goes into rotation.

As the Raptors continued to blitz Walker over his screens, Theis kept setting them way out near the sideline. While it put a lot of pressure on Walker to beat the coverage, the Celtics kept finding ways to draw that pinch and hit what was still often a contested 3. It wasn’t perfect by any means, as the Raptors hit one more 3 than Boston (eight to seven), but it took them 10 more attempts. The difference came in the corners, where the Celtics shot 10-for-15 while the Raptors went just 2-for-6. When the offense continued to apply pressure down the seams, the Raptors mixed up the defenders they would send to pinch at the top of the arc, whether it be from the elbow or even from underneath the play. No matter if it was the Celtics starters or the second unit with Robert Williams on the roll, Boston kept finding gaps and opening up the elbows and corners. Whenever Toronto got too aggressive loading up, Boston would make it pay.

The Celtics had a disconcerting 23 turnovers in this game, but the Raptors only scored seven fast-break points. Since Toronto creating transition points off turnovers was such a big storyline coming into the series, Stevens was asked about this stat. He said he didn’t know why it was so anomalous, but suspected it was misleading. The twist is that it’s not the lack of fast-break points that was misleading, as Stevens suspected, but rather the fact that only 10 of Boston’s turnovers were in live-action and Toronto only scored off of four of them.


I would highly recommend any hardcore C's fan to subscribe.
Weiss/King are consistently excellent.
Lots of videos to support their commentary/analysis
Txs. I keep thinking about subscribing but I'm so far behind on my reading to begin with . . . .
 

benhogan

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TimeLord looked great. My expectation is that Nurse will spend all day today figuring out how to neutralize him and Brad Stevens will have Kanter be the first C of the bench tomorrow and he'll dominate in half-court :)
Nary a mention of Theis' 13pts and 15rebs in 25mins... not only does he get whistled when he steps on the court, but he's also criminally underrated around here.

expect Enes to see very limited time in this series
 

wilked

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here are some highlights/excerpts from the CBS article:

Brad Stevens gave his team very clear instructions Sunday morning.

“Isolation is not the answer,” the Celtics coach said. “They just load up on you. So the ball has to pop. You have to move. You have to find a great shot when you can, and you have to be patient enough to find it.”

The Celtics did not run an isolation by design until the end of the third quarter of Game 1

On the first play against Toronto, it became clear Boston was going to use the elbows to try to force the Raptors defense into some impossible positions. But to understand why it happened, you have to get to know Nurse’s defensive philosophy.

The Raptors’ brilliance on defense is tripartite: equal parts communication, aggression and persistence. They take more risks than almost any defense we have seen in the modern era but rarely find themselves compromised. They start with a hybrid switching scheme that always has them in some blend of switching, zoning and dropping, which are usually mutually exclusive for most teams. But the Raptors have been historically innovative in executing a system where they will switch certain pick-and-rolls while having a big dropping into the lane or a defender coming in to “pinch” the ballhandler. Toronto is as good as it gets at talking through all of these switches and traps without getting lost once it goes into rotation.

As the Raptors continued to blitz Walker over his screens, Theis kept setting them way out near the sideline. While it put a lot of pressure on Walker to beat the coverage, the Celtics kept finding ways to draw that pinch and hit what was still often a contested 3. It wasn’t perfect by any means, as the Raptors hit one more 3 than Boston (eight to seven), but it took them 10 more attempts. The difference came in the corners, where the Celtics shot 10-for-15 while the Raptors went just 2-for-6. When the offense continued to apply pressure down the seams, the Raptors mixed up the defenders they would send to pinch at the top of the arc, whether it be from the elbow or even from underneath the play. No matter if it was the Celtics starters or the second unit with Robert Williams on the roll, Boston kept finding gaps and opening up the elbows and corners. Whenever Toronto got too aggressive loading up, Boston would make it pay.

The Celtics had a disconcerting 23 turnovers in this game, but the Raptors only scored seven fast-break points. Since Toronto creating transition points off turnovers was such a big storyline coming into the series, Stevens was asked about this stat. He said he didn’t know why it was so anomalous, but suspected it was misleading. The twist is that it’s not the lack of fast-break points that was misleading, as Stevens suspected, but rather the fact that only 10 of Boston’s turnovers were in live-action and Toronto only scored off of four of them.


I would highly recommend any hardcore C's fan to subscribe.
Weiss/King are consistently excellent.
Lots of videos to support their commentary/analysis
I feel like I read a lot. First time I’ve seen the word tripartite
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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538 article on one of Cs favorite - double-pick for Kemba here: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/give-bostons-kemba-walker-a-double-pick-and-watch-him-work/.

For the Charlotte Hornets, Walker also found himself using double picks quite a bit, but in Boston, his volume has skyrocketed. Last season, he averaged 8.76 double screens per 100 possessions. This year, it was 13.66, placing Walker in the 93rd percentile (or fourth highest out of the 61 players who used a double screen at least 100 times). What separates him from the pack is his wild efficiency. Walker averaged 1.15 points per chance (83rd percentile) while squeezing out a lucrative 127.5 points per 100 possessions (85th percentile) for the Celtics.
 

Over Guapo Grande

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here are some highlights/excerpts from the CBS article:

Brad Stevens gave his team very clear instructions Sunday morning.

“Isolation is not the answer,” the Celtics coach said. “They just load up on you. So the ball has to pop. You have to move. You have to find a great shot when you can, and you have to be patient enough to find it.”
When I read this article, a play that came to mind happened late in the 4th, with the game well in hand, and officially in garbage time. I think it was Wanamaker (up top) and Semi (on the wing) playing a 2 man game where one would drive, then kick, then the other would drive and kick back. I remember seeing CBS clapping even before the shot went up ( a brick) ... so I figured that had to have been a point of emphasis.
 

bakahump

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Does it make sense to be destroying their defense (and basically showing your hand on offense) in garbage time?

I suppose by that point any competent coaching staff would have 3.5 qtrs of film of "what you did to hurt us".

Just seems silly to give them more info. Kinda why I liked Green (i know hes hurt) in garbage time. He could play (destitute homelessmans) jordan Ball on offense in garbage time and not give any extra film.
 

HowBoutDemSox

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Brown for GM after Aigne hangs it up?
Days before the draft, Brown was vacationing in Europe. At 4 a.m., Brown’s phone rang. It was Ainge. Brown missed the call. Ainge called again. Brown thought he had been traded. When he picked up, Ainge told him he needed an opinion. The Celtics were discussing Tatum and Josh Jackson—what did Brown think?

“I told him, ‘JT is your guy,’” Brown told Sports Illustrated. “He probably called a lot of people, but he called me as well. I don't know if that gave him any confirmation, but I told him what I thought. I was like, ‘Let’s go.’”
 

Red Averages

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There are a lot of terrible things about the internet. One of the great ones is the ability to get these quick video breakdowns to point out what to watch for in the next game.
Btw - Gasol points+rebounds+assists O/U for Game 2 is 16.5. Seems like a great under bet if you expect them to attack Gasol on defense consistently, either from tiring him out or him seeing less playing time.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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There are a lot of terrible things about the internet. One of the great ones is the ability to get these quick video breakdowns to point out what to watch for in the next game.
Btw - Gasol points+rebounds+assists O/U for Game 2 is 16.5. Seems like a great under bet if you expect them to attack Gasol on defense consistently, either from tiring him out or him seeing less playing time.
IIRC, TOR went with a two-big lineup for a while in the 3Q (Ibaka and Gasol) and cut the Cs lead. I've not rewatched the game but my recollection is that the Cs missed a bunch of open looks or had silly TOs rather than anything special being done by TOR on defense.

My only point is that stretch might lead Nurse to play them together more rather than less. Which I agree with everyone else would be great for BOS.
 

RorschachsMask

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I like time lord and his upside, but his lack of defensive awareness makes him basically unplayable against the Raps IMO. I hope I’m wrong and he looks good against them, but I can’t see it.

They move the ball a ton, and he is extremely prone to getting out of position and forcing other guys to rotate off their man to help him.
Hi, I’m an idiot. He is making mistakes, but he just disrupts so much that it doesn’t matter.
 

InstaFace

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So Kemba can shoot like dogshit, the bench can appear to be shaving points (other than Time Lord), and we can still pull out a win against them.

That bodes very well for when Brown, Kemba or anyone else flips the switch.
 

Red Averages

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Another night where the Raptors shot 27% from 3. If they shoot even 33% they likely win this game.

Now that being said, they are clearly struggling in the half court sets (hat-tip DeJesus) and not always getting great looks, but we should expect this to mean revert. When it does, the Celtics will need to cut down on the turnovers (another 17 tonight). I suspect as the series goes on Brad will more clearly hone in on the matchups he wants (like Grant over Semi/Kanter).

Loving what TL is bringing to this series. I’d expect Nunes to find a way to exploit his aggressiveness - as we’ve seen they’ve gotten some good 3 pt looks already, I’d expect some other adjustments.

very excited to see how Kemba bounces back from this one. His 4th quarter was already better, so I’m confident he’ll find his shot in front of the Garden fans as this series shifts to a home game...
 

DJnVa

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Another night where the Raptors shot 27% from 3. If they shoot even 33% they likely win this game.
We were treated to a lot of "they won't shoot that bad again" the last few days. Like people have only seen cold streaks last 1 game then immediately turn around.
 

DavidTai

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We were treated to a lot of "they won't shoot that bad again" the last few days. Like people have only seen cold streaks last 1 game then immediately turn around.
Isn't that the third straight game the Raptors have shot that badly? Feels like they -have- shot that badly in 5 losses vs Boston this year, which seems to indicate Boston's doing something to disrupt them.
 

slamminsammya

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Yea, things don't revert to the mean on their own. That's true if you were playing random opponents which is what that mean represents in the first place. We don't know what the "mean" is for the particular Raptors - Celtics matchup. To my eyes its not like the Raptors have been missing a bunch of wide open looks. The Celtics defense is keeping their transition game at bay and doing a good job forcing not great shots.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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We were treated to a lot of "they won't shoot that bad again" the last few days. Like people have only seen cold streaks last 1 game then immediately turn around.
Yeah I think Boston's D deserves a lot of credit here. I don't recall a large amount of open threes being missed. The Celtics defense is stifling them in the halfcourt and leading to a low of low percentage, contested shots. I don't know what Toronto can do to make their halfcourt offense better, either. They don't have a Kawhi who can create his own offense. Siakam isn't that guy and neither are FVV or Lowry. It seems to me like the Celtics are simply a terrible matchup.
 

Jimbodandy

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Yea, things don't revert to the mean on their own. That's true if you were playing random opponents which is what that mean represents in the first place. We don't know what the "mean" is for the particular Raptors - Celtics matchup. To my eyes its not like the Raptors have been missing a bunch of wide open looks. The Celtics defense is keeping their transition game at bay and doing a good job forcing not great shots.
This is what I see too. We were worse this game than the first, but transition and secondary transition defense was overall solid. The corner three wasn't given away.

If Siakam has to go through guys and earn every point and Lowry/FVF have to run the gauntlet, Toronto will struggle to score in the half court. The Celtics are playing disciplined basketball.

Nurse will make some adjustments, and Toronto will go on some runs where everything falls (even bad shots). But their bad shooting isn't accidental.
 

chilidawg

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Yeah I think Boston's D deserves a lot of credit here. I don't recall a large amount of open threes being missed. The Celtics defense is stifling them in the halfcourt and leading to a low of low percentage, contested shots. I don't know what Toronto can do to make their halfcourt offense better, either. They don't have a Kawhi who can create his own offense. Siakam isn't that guy and neither are FVV or Lowry. It seems to me like the Celtics are simply a terrible matchup.
The open 3's I remember were primarily OG and Ibaka, and they both made a healthy share of them. VV and Lowry were both seeing hands up from guys bigger than them. Also I'd live with our 1 on 1 defense on Siakam all day. He just doesn't seem like he's creating good looks, which allows us not to double.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Brad Stevens is good at basketball. Their D was exquisite.

Here is the thing - setting aside the advanced metrics shade for Brown, he is a good enough defender that when you add Smart and Tatum as well as the discipline of Theis and Walker, they muck up a lot of sets.

Tatum, in particular, is so disruptive and it feels so effortless. He is a walking deflection. And Marcus is putting people in the torture chamber on every sequence. His savvy around leverage is insane. He is consistently getting position on guys who have six inches on him.

Lastly...
33890
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Great game two write up by Brian Robb.

Fyi - most of the article is behind a paywall but I thought this free part was cool:

The duo had played just seven postseason minutes together heading into Game 2, but they had been a secretly effective weapon throughout the regular season. In fact, that Theis/G Williams two-man duo has the lowest defensive rating (97.3 points per 100 possessions) out of any two-man combination of the Celtics roster that has played over 200 minutes (50+ groups).
 
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lovegtm

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I think it would be very revealing for us to revisit (or discover an article that visits) the question of "how the hell did Toronto blow away the Bucks in 6 last year, especially after losing the first 2?"

Looking at the series stats, three things are clear:

1. Lowry shot out of his mind, with a .709 TS% / .657 eFG%, averaging 19.2 pts/gm.
2. Even so, Kawhi basically bossed the entire series, was the leading scorer in 5 out of the 6 games (30 pts / gm!), played 42 minutes / game, and lit up the stat sheet to the point where Giannis only stands out for defensive rebounding.
3. We have no idea, just from the stats, the extent to which Kawhi's presence enabled them to contain Giannis. And that deserves more careful study, because it suggests how they might fare if they come back, beat us, and get a rematch vs MIL.

Basically, to what extent was their defensive excellence in that series down to scheme, rather than just having Kawhi as its own form of cheat code? Kawhi isn't a physical freak in quite the same way as Giannis or (say) Anthony Davis, he's got still-within-the-bounds-of-normal-NBA size, speed, strength, etc. His extraordinary value comes from defensive intensity, offensive awareness and decision-making, clutch shooting / playmaking, conditioning, and other things that are more mental and training-related than genetic. Theoretically, if a lot of the Raptors' success in that series last year came from scheme, then trying to repeat it with a slightly older/better Siakam and great supporting cast stands more of a chance than if they were relying on hero ball and an offensive cheat code that's now departed.
Healthy Playoff Kawhi is clearly a top-3 player, and I think many would have him #1. Hell, he doesn't even have to be fully healthy, as he showed last year.

He's something of a physical freak in his length and strength, he's an insanely good defender when engaged, and he has the most valuable playoff offensive skill (elite self-created offense when things bog down).

No matter which way you slice it, losing a top-3 player changes a team to the point that comparisons are mostly meaningless. The Raptors are a good team, but it’s been bizarre to me to see people analyzing them as if they lost Gary Harris or something.

If the Raps had Kawhi, I would have picked them in 5.
 
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lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
12,001
The story for this series seems remarkably simple at this point, especially in the context of the regular season meetings.

The Raptors can’t reliably generate half-court offensive advantages, and the Celtics have a great transition D, so points are hard to come by. This is especially rough on Siakam.

The Raptors have a very good D, but the Celtics can squeeze out some edges with Kemba and Tatum’s halfcourt ability.

Everything after that is mostly shooting variance, which will likely still swing 1-3 games to the Raptors before this is over. It’s very unlikely they can win 4 out of 5 on that basis, however.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
12,001
Celtics bizarrely now with highest computed odds of any team of winning the title (36%), according to 538
538 gives weird results for these things that don't factor in the impact of top-end stars enough imo. That said, things are breaking really well for the Celtics. If Hayward can come back strong, they are top-tier contenders, darkhorses if he doesn't.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,124
Santa Monica
In a close playoff game, it was good to see Brad tighten up the rotations (Grant needs to play over Semi going forward)

155mins from the Big 4 out of the 192mins from 1-4 last night. (w/JB foul trouble)

If Gordon was here it could have easily been 190mins from the best 5, even with the modern-day pace of play

Also, it was sad to see Gasol foul out last night. It felt like Tatum could go right at Marc and draw a foul anytime in the halfcourt last night
 
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