BEAT L.A. (The Gamethread)

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,375
A guy like Smoltz watching this game (and commentating it) has to be sick to his stomach to see a starter throwing like Snell was pulled when he was.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 24, 2002
48,205
Snell was pitching just as well in Game 2 and he fell off a cliff super quickly in the fifth. He wasn’t going to face Mookie with a man on base. The mistake is using Anderson. He was incredible all year but has not been good in the playoffs. They did not adjust away from him being their high leverage ace quickly enough.
Buck and Smoltz cited his fall off in ERA after the fourth. There is a statistical basis for the move but everything else screamed to keep him in.
 

Apisith

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 19, 2007
3,208
Bangkok
I get pulling Snell - analytics, third time through the order etc., - the issue is using Anderson. You can’t use him. What analytics justify using him in that spot? You go to Castillo or Fairbanks.
 

Melrose Diner

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 11, 2020
502
I get pulling Snell - analytics, third time through the order etc., - the issue is using Anderson. You can’t use him. What analytics justify using him in that spot? You go to Castillo or Fairbanks.
The problem is the “analytics” would have shown you that Mookie can’t hit LHP and is worse the third time thru the order, so you’re doing the hitter a favor by bringing someone else in from a metrics standpoint
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
30,238
I get pulling Snell - analytics, third time through the order etc., - the issue is using Anderson. You can’t use him. What analytics justify using him in that spot? You go to Castillo or Fairbanks.
I assume the choice of replacement is all Cash, but who knows.
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
53,840
I get pulling Snell - analytics, third time through the order etc., - the issue is using Anderson. You can’t use him. What analytics justify using him in that spot? You go to Castillo or Fairbanks.
What's the sample size on the whole "third time through the order" though? In Snell's case it's 23 ABs this year.
 

soxhop411

news aggravator
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2009
46,276
I mean this is a fireable offense. As Grady little saw in 2003.

You are the manager, you can override the fucking computer. You have instincts, a computer does not.

if the computer told you to jump off a cliff you wouldn’t do it. Same here.
 

VORP Speed

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
6,633
Ground Zero
Blake Snell turns into a pumpkin deep into games. He wasn’t going much further no matter what. The Rays have a great pen. I have no issue with the quick hook. Nick Anderson was a bad choice and then he fucking blew it, esp with the wild pitch.
 

scottyno

late Bloomer
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2008
11,304
The problem is the “analytics” would have shown you that Mookie can’t hit LHP and is worse the third time thru the order, so you’re doing the hitter a favor by bringing someone else in from a metrics standpoint
analytics don't show that at all though unless you're valuing 55 abs over his entire career where he hits the same vs both sides of the plate
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
53,840
There has to be more data than that.
For Snell? Or can we add up a bunch of different pitcher's small samples? If you want to do that you have to convince me that doing that makes more sense than an individual's numbers.
 

terrynever

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 25, 2005
21,717
pawtucket
Blake Snell turns into a pumpkin deep into games. He wasn’t going much further no matter what. The Rays have a great pen. I have no issue with the quick hook. Nick Anderson was a bad choice and then he fucking blew it, esp with the wild pitch.
That was my question, too. Why Anderson, of all people?
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,375
What's the sample size on the whole "third time through the order" though? In Snell's case it's 23 ABs this year.
For Betts, he's had 42 PA in the "3rd time facing a SP" category in 2020.

So combined, it's 65 plate appearances between Snell and Betts.

Not a huge sample.

But then you look at how Snell had handled Mookie so far. In the series, here were Mookie's plate appearances against Snell:

G2 (1st): strikeout swinging (4 pitches)
G2 (3rd): weak groundout to 3rd (5 pitches)
G2 (5th): walk (6 pitches, 3-2 count)
G6 (1st): strikeout swinging (5 pitches)
G6 (3rd): strikeout swinging (5 pitches)

So Betts was 0-4 against Snell in the WS, with one walk, three strikeouts, and a weak groundout. Total dominance by Snell.
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
30,238
For Snell? Or can we add up a bunch of different pitcher's small samples? If you want to do that you have to convince me that doing that makes more sense than an individual's numbers.
I don't think I can. Just saying TB must be relying on something more than 23ABs.
Or maybe cash choked.
 

Ale Xander

Hamilton
SoSH Member
Oct 31, 2013
72,432
I get pulling Snell - analytics, third time through the order etc., - the issue is using Anderson. You can’t use him. What analytics justify using him in that spot? You go to Castillo or Fairbanks.
Then you need new analytics if they tell you to pull Snell
 

Melrose Diner

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 11, 2020
502
analytics don't show that at all though unless you're valuing 55 abs over his entire career where he hits the same vs both sides of the plate
They’re valuing 23 innings or whatever for Snell, what’s the difference?

Edit: 23 AB? Even better. Good job, good effort
 

Ferm Sheller

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 5, 2007
20,404
How, if at all, does pulling Snell when he got pulled negatively affect the odds of the Rays winning Game 7? That has to be factored into the decision, too.