Pats QB Options

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Average Game James

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This. In any normal or semi normal circumstance there would be practically no price at which Houston trades Watson. Here, they can demand 4 drafts’ worth of picks and 5 of your best players all the live long day, but nobody is giving that and everyone knows that Houston’s implied threat to keep Watson are huge bluffs that are unlikely to actually result in Watson staying on the team.
I think people are really overestimating the impact of Houston's perceived "need" to trade him. Houston could come out and say "Deshaun Watson will never play another down for our franchise and we will trade him this offseason" and he would still likely fetch the largest trade haul in the history of the league. The current circumstances almost certainly lower Houston's reservation price for Watson, but it doesn't affect the demand side of the equation in the slightest. When it comes to even potential franchise QBs, it is very much a seller's market. If Houston decides to trade Watson, teams will line up to make offers and in a competitive bidding situation a GM doesn't need to meet the minimum price Houston is willing to accept, but beat the highest price another team is willing to pay. We've seen the value teams have placed on the chance to draft guys who might become what Watson is right now - a young superstar QB on a below market deal for 5 years - so I just can't imagine a scenario where a Watson trade doesn't fetch a much higher price.
 

Cellar-Door

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I am with MMS. I get - but don’t really buy - the argument that it might be better for the “team” value-wise or whatever to wait a year. But is it better for Jack Easterby’s odds of having a job by November? That organization is already under fire from the press locally and nationally. Having Watson sit for a year is a PR disaster.
If Cal McNair gave a shit about PR Jack Easterby would have been fired months ago.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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From a purely transactional standpoint, no other team has to make a decision about Watson's future besides the Texans. At present, they have an asset they simply cannot use - they deal it away, do nothing and/or hope that they can repair the relationship. The Texans may not see it this way or they may be willing to live with a Watson on the bench but its really hard to argue that they have any edge here whatsoever. Spin it however you like but they aren't really dealing from a position of strength.
 

BigSoxFan

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I think people are really overestimating the impact of Houston's perceived "need" to trade him. Houston could come out and say "Deshaun Watson will never play another down for our franchise and we will trade him this offseason" and he would still likely fetch the largest trade haul in the history of the league. The current circumstances almost certainly lower Houston's reservation price for Watson, but it doesn't affect the demand side of the equation in the slightest. When it comes to even potential franchise QBs, it is very much a seller's market. If Houston decides to trade Watson, teams will line up to make offers and in a competitive bidding situation a GM doesn't need to meet the minimum price Houston is willing to accept, but beat the highest price another team is willing to pay. We've seen the value teams have placed on the chance to draft guys who might become what Watson is right now - a young superstar QB on a below market deal for 5 years - so I just can't imagine a scenario where a Watson trade doesn't fetch a much higher price.
He'll retrieve a ton a value whenever he's dealt but there is a draft approaching. If they don't trade him before the draft, they've set their rebuilding timeline back a year. Why not trade him now when there are multiple top young QBs they could get with the Dolphins/Jets picks? You're right that they'll get a major haul whenever they deal him...but why wait? You're only inviting injury, organizational reputation risk and delaying the inevitable multi-year rebuilding process by a year.

It would be malpractice to play a game of chicken with him into next season.
 

Average Game James

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From a purely transactional standpoint, no other team has to make a decision about Watson's future besides the Texans. At present, they have an asset they simply cannot use - they deal it away, do nothing and/or hope that they can repair the relationship. The Texans may not see it this way or they may be willing to live with a Watson on the bench but its really hard to argue that they have any edge here whatsoever. Spin it however you like but they aren't really dealing from a position of strength.
Doesn't matter if the demand is there for the asset. One of my buddies from college had to sell his place on the NH seacoast last fall because of some financial difficulties. He basically had no choice but to sell. And despite his "position of weakness" he got nearly 20 offers within 48 hours of the open house with most of them all cash and well above list. The seller's bargaining position only matters when there are limited buyers...
 

ZMart100

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A team might wait in part because there's a chance Watson changes his mind about the team and coach during the 6 or so weeks he plays this year. In the likelihood it doesn't work, you still get a haul of picks only instead of trading him costing you 5m in cap space, it frees up 24 plus you get the roll over from the salary you didn't pay for the first 10 weeks of 2021.
 

Mooch

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Doesn't matter if the demand is there for the asset. One of my buddies from college had to sell his place on the NH seacoast last fall because of some financial difficulties. He basically had no choice but to sell. And despite his "position of weakness" he got nearly 20 offers within 48 hours of the open house with most of them all cash and well above list. The seller's bargaining position only matters when there are limited buyers...
The only way this situation would be analogous would be if the house itself could dictate which buyer your buddy could sell to, which limits the number of potential buyers.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Doesn't matter if the demand is there for the asset. One of my buddies from college had to sell his place on the NH seacoast last fall because of some financial difficulties. He basically had no choice but to sell. And despite his "position of weakness" he got nearly 20 offers within 48 hours of the open house with most of them all cash and well above list. The seller's bargaining position only matters when there are limited buyers...
You are correct. Your buddy wasn't a genius and he didn't have leverage. He had an asset that had a decent market.

Watson has a market too but the idea that the Texas can name their price here seems silly. They have to make a decision, even if its to do nothing - other teams know this. That doesn't mean that Watson trade won't fetch a haul -it almost certainly will - but it does increase the odds that he can be obtained at a more favorable price point for the buyer.
 

Mystic Merlin

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I think people are really overestimating the impact of Houston's perceived "need" to trade him. Houston could come out and say "Deshaun Watson will never play another down for our franchise and we will trade him this offseason" and he would still likely fetch the largest trade haul in the history of the league. The current circumstances almost certainly lower Houston's reservation price for Watson, but it doesn't affect the demand side of the equation in the slightest. When it comes to even potential franchise QBs, it is very much a seller's market. If Houston decides to trade Watson, teams will line up to make offers and in a competitive bidding situation a GM doesn't need to meet the minimum price Houston is willing to accept, but beat the highest price another team is willing to pay. We've seen the value teams have placed on the chance to draft guys who might become what Watson is right now - a young superstar QB on a below market deal for 5 years - so I just can't imagine a scenario where a Watson trade doesn't fetch a much higher price.
But the demand side is such that the teams with the most to offer will know that, and how many viable buyers are there? If Miami says ‘here are three firsts, a second, and two players’, how could Carolina beat that? What incentive does Miami have to offer an even more prohibitive package?

And Houston can’t assume they’ll have another shot next year, assuming Miami or NY is interested, at a top 3 pick with another QB class like this one. If they get an offer in hand that gets them a talented rookie QB, they should jump on it because they are gonna trade Watson.

Finally, Watson has a rare no trade clause. I’m skeptical he would use it liberally to dictate a small market, but who knows? They can’t just sell him to the highest bidder. Like how likely is it that he wants to play for Washington? Carolina? Who knows, but the no trade functions as additional leverage for buyers.
 

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The only thing preventing the Pats from being a favorite to land Watson is the lack of a pick that’d guarantee a shot at one of this draft’s big 4 qb prospects. That’s it. After this draft, they can match any combo of picks - 3 1sts, 2 2nds or 4 1sts, etc.. If the teams with the relevant picks this year decide they want Watson then there’s nothing the Pats could offer that’d be competitive. The unique twist in this singular circumstance is that there may be factors that aren’t crazy that would prevent the Texans from getting one of those picks. After that it’s a matter of how much BB would be willing to pay in an open auction.

One of the arguments - that sitting Watson for a year might enable the Texans to get a high pick in 2022 - is bogus. Trading Watson would yield the same result.
 

simplyeric

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Kellen Mond from Texas A&M is your guy if you’re looking for a potential Cam replacement/understudy.
He does indeed sound interesting, and looks like he might go in the 3rd round, maybe second if someone wants to stretch? (just reading one site that's what they suggest).
Seems like he could be a great project for BB to build around, because it seems like he might have some long-term talent.
 

Saints Rest

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The only way this situation would be analogous would be if the house itself could dictate which buyer your buddy could sell to, which limits the number of potential buyers.
Fair enough, but as long as the number of potential buyers dictated by Watson, is >1, then a bidding war can result. Houston needs to hire Scott Boras to negotiate their trade terms.
 

Average Game James

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But the demand side is such that the teams with the most to offer will know that, and how many viable buyers are there? If Miami says ‘here are three firsts, a second, and two players’, how could Carolina beat that? What incentive does Miami have to offer an even more prohibitive package?

And Houston can’t assume they’ll have another shot next year, assuming Miami or NY is interested, at a top 3 pick with another QB class like this one. If they get an offer in hand that gets them a talented rookie QB, they should jump on it because they are gonna trade Watson.

Finally, Watson has a rare no trade clause. I’m skeptical he would use it liberally to dictate a small market, but who knows? They can’t just sell him to the highest bidder. Like how likely is it that he wants to play for Washington? Carolina? Who knows, but the no trade functions as additional leverage for buyers.
Carolina probably can't top that without offering 4-5 years worth of firsts, but maybe they do that? And the Jets could certainly top Miami if they wanted to. Also, depending on the players involved, something like 3 + 18 + 35 + '22 first + Tua + another starter would probably meet my hurdle of "largest trade haul in the history of the league", no?

Watson't NTC gives him some leverage to dictate the outcome, but only to the extent he's really willing to not play football and not get paid. The PR shifts pretty meaningfully in Houston's favor if they can say "Look, we have 2 teams that have made acceptable offers to us, but Deshaun says he won't go. We made a good faith effort to make a trade, so this is on him now."
 

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The only thing preventing the Pats from being a favorite to land Watson is the lack of a pick that’d guarantee a shot at one of this draft’s big 4 qb prospects. That’s it. After this draft, they can match any combo of picks - 3 1sts, 2 2nds or 4 1sts, etc.
I don't think this is true. The Patriots have already reloaded via free agency, the organization has the GOAT for a coach, and a strong culture of winning. With Watson on a loaded team, that boatload of picks is worth less than if Houston traded Watson for the same number of picks from a lesser organization.
 

Mystic Merlin

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Carolina probably can't top that without offering 4-5 years worth of firsts, but maybe they do that? And the Jets could certainly top Miami if they wanted to. Also, depending on the players involved, something like 3 + 18 + 35 + '22 first + Tua + another starter would probably meet my hurdle of "largest trade haul in the history of the league", no?

Watson't NTC gives him some leverage to dictate the outcome, but only to the extent he's really willing to not play football and not get paid. The PR shifts pretty meaningfully in Houston's favor if they can say "Look, we have 2 teams that have made acceptable offers to us, but Deshaun says he won't go. We made a good faith effort to make a trade, so this is on him now."
You can’t trade your first rounders past the upcoming three drafts (I mistakenly referred to trading four in a prior post, which was sloppy), so it caps the draft comp a team can offer.
 

Shelterdog

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You can’t trade your first rounders past the upcoming three drafts (I mistakenly referred to trading four in a prior post, which was sloppy), so it caps the draft comp a team can offer.
So the Pats first round draft bonanza would look a lot to Houston like 15 28 28 which is nice but man, you could do a lot better--and doesn't get you a top QB.
 

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DourDoerr

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I don't think this is true. The Patriots have already reloaded via free agency, the organization has the GOAT for a coach, and a strong culture of winning. With Watson on a loaded team, that boatload of picks is worth less than if Houston traded Watson for the same number of picks from a lesser organization.
Sure, but I honestly don't know how much of a factor this is to a team's considerations. I suspect it's important, but don't know to which degree. Injuries happen, coaches retire, free agents move on, etc.. The reasons you cite for the Texans to be uninterested, however, are exactly the reasons why Watson might waive his NTC for the Pats. Not an unimportant consideration for, again, this very unusual circumstance.

Also, one would have to consider that the team acquiring Watson should take a leap with him aboard, so their future picks would be devalued and might be more in line with whatever value you'd asign to New England's future picks.
 
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Ferm Sheller

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Any chance the Texans and Jags do a swap of Watson and #1 (Lawrence)? That might allow the Texans to save face and would give the Jags a sure bet at QB and allow them to by-pass the need to develop Lawrence. Would be an intra-division trade, I know, but it's fun to think about.
 

Harry Hooper

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Any chance the Texans and Jags do a swap of Watson and #1 (Lawrence)? That might allow the Texans to save face and would give the Jags a sure bet at QB and allow them to by-pass the need to develop Lawrence. Would be an intra-division trade, I know, but it's fun to think about.
Caserio may have no great desire to get Tua or Darnold to play QB, so this kind of offer from the Jags should be more enticing.
 

Mooch

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Any chance the Texans and Jags do a swap of Watson and #1 (Lawrence)? That might allow the Texans to save face and would give the Jags a sure bet at QB and allow them to by-pass the need to develop Lawrence. Would be an intra-division trade, I know, but it's fun to think about.
I don't think that Watson would want to roll the dice go to play for Urban Meyer.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Sure, but I honestly don't know how much of a factor this is to a team's considerations. I suspect it's important, but don't know to which degree. Injuries happen, coaches retire, free agents move on, etc.. The reasons you cite for the Texans to be uninterested, however, are exactly the reasons why Watson might waive his NTC for the Pats. Not an unimportant consideration for, again, this very unusual circumstance.
Right. In sure teams consider it, but you can only factor it in so much. Watson goes and tears his ACL, and that Pat's pick is top 3. It matters in an apples to apples comparison of assets, but only so much.
 

JM3

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<pedant>
Gold is measured in troy ounces, of which there are only 14.58 to the standard pound. Thus, a pile of gold with the same mass as Deshaun Watson would be worth only ($1740 per ounce)*(14.58 ounces per pound)*(220 pounds) = $5.58 million. Even cheaper!
</pedant>
Sold
 

EvilEmpire

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Sure, but I honestly don't know how much of a factor this is to a team's considerations. I suspect it's important, but don't know to which degree. Injuries happen, coaches retire, free agents move on, etc.. The reasons you cite for the Texans to be uninterested, however, are exactly the reasons why Watson might waive his NTC for the Pats. Not an unimportant consideration for, again, this very unusual circumstance.

Also, one would have to consider that the team acquiring Watson should take a leap with him aboard, so their future picks would be devalued and might be more in line with whatever value you'd asign to New England's future picks.

Well, I specifically said "that boatload of picks is worth less than if Houston traded Watson for the same number of picks from a lesser organization", so yeah, I'm looking at that consideration as a factor in racking and stacking similar offers. More of a tie breaker than a substantial factor in evaluating an offer.

If the Patriots offer more picks/higher rounds than everyone else, it is a different situation. I mean, you said "The only thing preventing the Pats from being a favorite to land Watson " and talked about how the Patriots could match any combo of picks.

I just think they'll have to do a little better than matching picks to be considered a favorite to land Watson.
 

Ferm Sheller

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Of the two teams in this scenario, it is the Jags. Lawrence is one of the best QB prospects in the past 25 years, and 4 years on a rookie scale contract is a huge advantage.
Yes, I was thinking about the money issue and it is a substantial reason against Jax doing this. On the other hand, Lawrence's ceiling can't be much higher than Watson's already proven value, and his floor could be very low.
 

Harry Hooper

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Yes, I was thinking about the money issue and it is a substantial reason against Jax doing this. On the other hand, Lawrence's ceiling can't be much higher than Watson's already proven value, and his floor could be very low.
Meyer might also be a graduate of the "Rick Pitino School of Patience" when it comes to building up a professional roster.
 

Marceline

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Right. In sure teams consider it, but you can only factor it in so much. Watson goes and tears his ACL, and that Pat's pick is top 3. It matters in an apples to apples comparison of assets, but only so much.
Hard to make the case the Pats become a bottom 3 team if they trade for Watson and he gets hurt, given they just had a 7 win season and they've made dramatic improvements to the team already.
 

sodenj5

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Right. In sure teams consider it, but you can only factor it in so much. Watson goes and tears his ACL, and that Pat's pick is top 3. It matters in an apples to apples comparison of assets, but only so much.
Watson had the best year of his career and they still ended up coughing up a top 3 pick to Miami.

Obviously you expect when making a trade like that that your team will maintain or improve. You aren’t banking on a complete organizational collapse.
 

Mooch

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Mond may be the hottest ticket right now on a lot of draft boards.

I'd love to hear what folks here think of Mond.
I'm just not sure about him. That game against LSU was brutal. His accuracy isn't that great either. If the Pats were going to try to swing for the fence on potential at round 3 or later, I'd rather go with Jamie Newman.
 

JokersWildJIMED

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Bears offered 3 #1s, a 3rd and two players for Wilson and were turned down. If the Pats replicated that with JC Jackson and Gilmore as the players, that might not be enough for Watson.

Second tier prospects, I like Ehlinger as a day 3 sleeper, a whole lot better than Mond
 

DourDoerr

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I just think they'll have to do a little better than matching picks to be considered a favorite to land Watson.
I think it's implied that any team winning an auction will "match" by offering a little more - as no two teams can have, say, the same 23rd pick in the 2022 draft - but maybe I'm wrong and should have spelled it out.

Do you mean you think the Pats will have to pay a premium over any other team to get Watson? If so, I don't see why that's true. Caserio? Easterby? I just don't know and don't see any evidence for it.
 
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RedOctober3829

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On the subject of Deshaun Watson, this is from Joe Person who covers the Panthers for The Athletic. This is the first I've seen someone other than Jeff Howe mention the Patriots with him.

"The Jets and Dolphins — both flush with draft picks — have been the teams most often linked to Watson, along with the Panthers. But Denver and San Francisco also could be in play.

One wild card to keep an eye on is New England. The Patriots loaded up in free agency with offensive weapons and defensive playmakers, which could make them more attractive to Watson, whose no-trade clause gives him a strong voice in where he ends up. Plus, don’t underestimate Caserio’s ties to New England, where he spent 20 years working with Bill Belichick, including 18 years in player personnel."

https://theathletic.com/2456192/2021/03/16/deshaun-watson-to-panthers-gets-more-intriguing-the-dominoes-started-to-fall-tuesday/?source=emp_shared_article
 

SeoulSoxFan

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Bears offered 3 #1s, a 3rd and two players for Wilson and were turned down. If the Pats replicated that with JC Jackson and Gilmore as the players, that might not be enough for Watson.

Second tier prospects, I like Ehlinger as a day 3 sleeper, a whole lot better than Mond
What if the players were Winovich, Harris, and Onwenu?
 

JokersWildJIMED

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What if the players were Winovich, Harris, and Onwenu?
I can’t see it. Shutdown secondary is one of the most valuable positions in the league, outside of QB, and could be enticing...interior line and running backs are fungible, and winovich is meh.
 

E5 Yaz

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On the subject of Deshaun Watson, this is from Joe Person who covers the Panthers for The Athletic. This is the first I've seen someone other than Jeff Howe mention the Patriots with him.

"The Jets and Dolphins — both flush with draft picks — have been the teams most often linked to Watson, along with the Panthers. But Denver and San Francisco also could be in play.

One wild card to keep an eye on is New England. The Patriots loaded up in free agency with offensive weapons and defensive playmakers, which could make them more attractive to Watson, whose no-trade clause gives him a strong voice in where he ends up. Plus, don’t underestimate Caserio’s ties to New England, where he spent 20 years working with Bill Belichick, including 18 years in player personnel."

https://theathletic.com/2456192/2021/03/16/deshaun-watson-to-panthers-gets-more-intriguing-the-dominoes-started-to-fall-tuesday/?source=emp_shared_article
Just sounds like reporter speculation to me. Not that there has been anything concrete on Watson, but until he's traded, I doubt he's going anywhere
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Bears offered 3 #1s, a 3rd and two players for Wilson and were turned down. If the Pats replicated that with JC Jackson and Gilmore as the players, that might not be enough for Watson.

Second tier prospects, I like Ehlinger as a day 3 sleeper, a whole lot better than Mond
Wilson isnt refusing to play for the Seahawks if he isnt traded. In fact, hes denied an ask for a trade. Its apples and oranges.
 

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Forgive me if this has already been mentioned, but might Bob Kraft's desire to see another championship influence the decision making here? We know from past experience that Bob and Bill haven't always been on the same page these last few years when it comes to the QB situation. Granted there is a certain uniqueness to that given Brady's success and his relationship with ownership, but Kraft is now pushing 80 years old. Looking at the all of work that has been done in the past few days as well as the returning opt outs from last season this team could be in GFIN mode with a push for Watson. I'm not saying the Pats land Watson, but I'm curious to see if they do indeed make a serious play for him.
 

Captaincoop

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I'm just not sure about him. That game against LSU was brutal. His accuracy isn't that great either. If the Pats were going to try to swing for the fence on potential at round 3 or later, I'd rather go with Jamie Newman.
I was about to say...that performance against LSU was definitely Cam-esque.
 

DourDoerr

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Wilson isnt refusing to play for the Seahawks if he isnt traded. In fact, hes denied an ask for a trade. Its apples and oranges.
The Bears offer might indicate the floor of a Watson trade RIGHT NOW. If the Bears were willing to extend this offer for Wilson, I don't think it's unreasonable to assume they did the same for Watson. Watson's much younger and has as much talent - if not more. The Bears' 2021 1st rnd pick is #20, so there's even less value than New England's 1st. If I were the Texans, I'd be holding out for a pick that could get one of the Big 4 qb prospects this year, but they need to find a dance partner.

Of course, the Bears might have simply made an offer for Wilson as might be their preference and haven't said anything to Houston yet, if they ever do.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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I think people are really overestimating the impact of Houston's perceived "need" to trade him. Houston could come out and say "Deshaun Watson will never play another down for our franchise and we will trade him this offseason" and he would still likely fetch the largest trade haul in the history of the league. The current circumstances almost certainly lower Houston's reservation price for Watson, but it doesn't affect the demand side of the equation in the slightest. When it comes to even potential franchise QBs, it is very much a seller's market. If Houston decides to trade Watson, teams will line up to make offers and in a competitive bidding situation a GM doesn't need to meet the minimum price Houston is willing to accept, but beat the highest price another team is willing to pay. We've seen the value teams have placed on the chance to draft guys who might become what Watson is right now - a young superstar QB on a below market deal for 5 years - so I just can't imagine a scenario where a Watson trade doesn't fetch a much higher price.
I largely agree with this take and do think they'll get an attractive offer in the end. But this thread is littered with people, including yourself at times, talking about what Houston will accept when its not actually that relevant. Unless something changes with their relationship to Watson, they're going to trade him to the highest bidder that Watson will also consent to joining, probably sometime before the draft.
 

thurin68

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Call me a pessimist but this just feels like a situation where if Belichick is asked to keep adding chips for a possible trade for Watson he’s just gonna say, “screw this we’ll draft one instead”
 

Harry Hooper

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All these media guys juiced up from the interactions and mentions and clicks yesterday are going the extra step and talking Watson now. I take almost nothing from these Howe and Perry articles.
That Perry piece reads like a classic "I wrote on this topic because my editor insisted on it" article.
 

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All these media guys juiced up from the interactions and mentions and clicks yesterday are going the extra step and talking Watson now. I take almost nothing from these Howe and Perry articles.
Especially since Perry was all over the signings as being close to desperate.

Trustworthy local guys are who? Lazar, Curran, Reiss, Kyed, Daniels, and (still) Howe?
 
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