Which would you rather give up in a hypothetical deal, 96 + future first or 46 + future second? I think I’d rather give up 96 and the future first so they can get another quality guy in the second round, and they could even move back up in the late 3rd using all of their 4th-6th rounders.
Would do 46 + future 2nd in a heartbeat.
To contectualize my gut feeling on this...
Per the Stuart chart, 46 is worth 10.2 points & 96 is worth 5.5 points.
We can find the breakeven draft pick point where the difference between a 1st & 2nd is 4.7 points.
At 29th pick, the 1st rounder is worth 4.8 more than the 2nd (61), & 30 is worth 4.6 more than 62, so that's the tipping point. If we get the 30th through 32nd pick I still think we'd be ok by not getting max value, & if the team struggles for whatever reason, we're much better not losing that valuable 1st if we could avoid it.
Those charts see time as a flat circle so they don't discount for future picks, but they also value higher picks less than most NFL teams do, & don't factor in the value of a 5th year option.
Plus, other than our 2 2020 2nds who I have hopes for still, Jimmy G was our last competent 2nd round pick.