Vrabel and Julio Down by the Schoolyard: Titans Get Jones

Jimbodandy

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To be fair, being concerned about a player who played his entire career indoors & in fair weather is pretty reasonable to me.

My current take is that even if you bake all that in (trade assets, salary, age, injury history, weather, etc.) a 2nd rounder + assortment is more than a fair compensation for Jones. I'd even make it a 2nd+Harry if Atlanta accepts it.
This.

The team is pretty damn deep right now after all of the signings and a good draft. Losing our fourth WR and a next year second rounder for Jones isn't a huge package. Even if Jones comes in and struggles, so what--then he's basically Harry and we're out a pick in the 50s next year. BFD.

Take the home run swing.
 

Jungleland

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I hesitate to use the phrase 'have to' because we've seen this team succeed in many different iterations, not all of which had legitimate stars at the skill positions. But I borderline say this team will have to spend either a 2nd round pick and/or a contract north of 11 million per year for a receiver soon, as it's still the biggest hole on the roster. Perhaps the age 32-34 seasons for Julio Jones aren't the answer, but I think it's likely "where's our WR1 coming from?" is a question we'll be asking in a year's time if not. I don't see many here saying otherwise (though I think I started writing this in response to DOTB's comment about $40mil could be better spent elsewhere) so apologies if I'm tilting at windmills. But ultimately as I talk myself into the Pats taking a swing here I think the need is a heavy point in favor.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Did you read my post? Your hypothesis is that older receivers perform worse in cold weather than they would elsewhere. Ok interesting hypothesis but pointing to older guys being bad in cold weather doesn’t actually prove anything because A. Older guys are generally worse than younger guys, and b. there is ample evidence that a good receiver is a good receiver in cold weather. So cold weather doesn’t make someone a bad receiver. So what, exactly is the reason an older receiver with talent isn’t good in cold weather? Is it the overwhelming evidence that being old, with its mountains of predictive data, the reason your list of old receivers in the north aren’t good? Or is it some other factor that specifically compounds the decline of productivity of older receivers in cold weather? Because we know there are good receivers in cold weather. So cold weather alone doesn’t make someone bad at catching a football. The fact is your sample size of older receivers who you deem as old and good is just too small of a sample size to prove anything, and directly points to the fact that being old and good is rare, independent of weather. That is the concern, not if Julio Jones for some reason forgets how to run routes or catch a football because he’s playing some of his games in colder weather.
If there is evidence of a great wide receiver playing on the outside in shitty weather during their mid 30's, then post it? It shouldn't be so hard if it's so ample. As I've now said a few times, there are TON of good receivers who played in the northeast. There are almost none who played well in their 32+ age years. However, there are a TON of guys who played great after age 32 in domes and warm weather environments.

And FTR, I ain't just talking about "cold." We get rain, cold ass rain, wind driven rain, snow. All of that is a completely different animal than playing in a dome, or playing in Tampa or San Diego or Jacksonville/Carolina, etc. Outside receivers on slick weather-related conditions don't perform well. Offensive players who have low centers of gravity and are agile have advantages in that weather over the defense, that tall straight line burners do not have.

It's not like there isn't evidence out there. I vividly remember a few dome and warm weather teams coming into Foxboro with their stud receivers and shitting the bed in crappy weather (cough, Indianapolis Colts, cough) year in and year out. I attended 160 out of 161 straight Pats games, and you knew going into a game if the weather was shit, the other team would curl up into a ball and lose. When Tom Brady came out in his SCUBA outfit underneath his jersey, the game was over before Peyton Manning and the high flyers even took a snap. It's been a while since I looked it up, but I believe the Pats have lost a total of 2 games in Foxboro in the playoffs when the weather was below 40 degrees. One was to a Jets team that plays in cold weather too, and one was to the Ravens on a day when Joe Flacco didn't throw for 40 yards. Meanwhile, the Pats have won like 13 home playoff games when the temperature didn't get above freezing and in a number of those games, there was also snow and/or rain falling. And opposing wide receivers, on some of the most prolific offenses in history, in the middle of their prime, were shut down.

The Patriots home field advantage in November, December and January may be the biggest home field advantage in sports, and a not insignificant part of that is because the team is built to play in those conditions. Julio could very well be the exception and put up 1,400 yards and 12 touchdowns at age 32 in New England and I'd love to see it from a fan perspective, a fantasy perspective and just for fun, but all I'm saying is it's far from a lock, and there are bigger holes on this team right now than receiver.
 

mwonow

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I hesitate to use the phrase 'have to' because we've seen this team succeed in many different iterations, not all of which had legitimate stars at the skill positions. But I borderline say this team will have to spend either a 2nd round pick and/or a contract north of 11 million per year for a receiver soon, as it's still the biggest hole on the roster. Perhaps the age 32-34 seasons for Julio Jones aren't the answer, but I think it's likely "where's our WR1 coming from?" is a question we'll be asking in a year's time if not. I don't see many here saying otherwise (though I think I started writing this in response to DOTB's comment about $40mil could be better spent elsewhere) so apologies if I'm tilting at windmills. But ultimately as I talk myself into the Pats taking a swing here I think the need is a heavy point in favor.
This is pretty well where I sit, too. The WR room is the shallowest in Foxborough (except maybe QB, but if it's broken, it isn't getting fixed with a 2 and Harry). This team has a lot of great pieces, and adding JJones adds another proof point to the 'don't just compete, win' vibe that the Pats are known for.
 

Jimbodandy

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If there is evidence of a great wide receiver playing on the outside in shitty weather during their mid 30's, then post it? It shouldn't be so hard if it's so ample. As I've now said a few times, there are TON of good receivers who played in the northeast. There are almost none who played well in their 32+ age years. However, there are a TON of guys who played great after age 32 in domes and warm weather environments.

And FTR, I ain't just talking about "cold." We get rain, cold ass rain, wind driven rain, snow. All of that is a completely different animal than playing in a dome, or playing in Tampa or San Diego or Jacksonville/Carolina, etc. Outside receivers on slick weather-related conditions don't perform well. Offensive players who have low centers of gravity and are agile have advantages in that weather over the defense, that tall straight line burners do not have.

It's not like there isn't evidence out there. I vividly remember a few dome and warm weather teams coming into Foxboro with their stud receivers and shitting the bed in crappy weather (cough, Indianapolis Colts, cough) year in and year out. I attended 160 out of 161 straight Pats games, and you knew going into a game if the weather was shit, the other team would curl up into a ball and lose. When Tom Brady came out in his SCUBA outfit underneath his jersey, the game was over before Peyton Manning and the high flyers even took a snap. It's been a while since I looked it up, but I believe the Pats have lost a total of 2 games in Foxboro in the playoffs when the weather was below 40 degrees. One was to a Jets team that plays in cold weather too, and one was to the Ravens on a day when Joe Flacco didn't throw for 40 yards. Meanwhile, the Pats have won like 13 home playoff games when the temperature didn't get above freezing and in a number of those games, there was also snow and/or rain falling. And opposing wide receivers, on some of the most prolific offenses in history, in the middle of their prime, were shut down.

The Patriots home field advantage in November, December and January may be the biggest home field advantage in sports, and a not insignificant part of that is because the team is built to play in those conditions. Julio could very well be the exception and put up 1,400 yards and 12 touchdowns at age 32 in New England and I'd love to see it from a fan perspective, a fantasy perspective and just for fun, but all I'm saying is it's far from a lock, and there are bigger holes on this team right now than receiver.
So is your take on this that Jones isn't the guy, that we should spend next years second rounder on a different X receiver, or that we should spend draft capital on a different roster hole (or not at all)?

Apologies if I missed this in your earler posts, but it seemed like you were arguing purely against JJ himself.
 
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Cellar-Door

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The "well let's split this into a tiny tiny sample" stuff is silly.

There are what 6-8 teams that are cold weather teams (non-dome) picking through there rosters looking for elite WRs is already a small sample, there aren't that many of them, arguing that there aren't many elite 32 year old WRs in recent years on those 6 teams... ok sure. I mean, who are the previously elite WRs who fell off a cliff in cold weather? Also, eliminating northern Dome guys seems silly. Like Cris Carter.. sure he played 8 games a year in a dome, but he also played games in the worst weather cities in the league, he was great.

There is too much noise in there, such as picking what counts as a cold weather or bad weather team:
I mean how do we count guys who played in BAL, is that a bad weather team? BAL probably isn't, but on the other hand at least 6 games a year are in PIT, CIN and CLE?
Boldin: Great at 32 in BAL (who play a lot of bad weather road games), traded to SFO at 33 where he was still great.
Smith: didn't even get to BAL until he was 35... he was great.
Mason: played the same as always into his mid/late 30s

Is PHI a bad weather team... because Fryar put up maybe his best two year stretch there in his mid 30s.

Is SF "bad weather" it's not gonna snow but it's one of the wettest and windiest places in the league and Rice was the best WR in football well into his 30s.

Additionally eliminating Domes seems silly unless you see a split issue,
I mean, Cris Carter was BETTER outdoors than in a dome in his 32-34 seasons (playing places like Chicago, GB, KC, Denver etc.)

Looking at top WRs for clearly bad weather teams:
Lofton was 2nd in the league in YPR at age 34, at age 35 he was top 10 in the league in yards.
Reed put up 3 seasons at 32-34 that look pretty similar to most 3 year stretches in his career
I consider PIT bad weather.. Ward was just as good at 32-33 as any time earlier, and still very good at 34
Driver in GB put up 3 straight 1000 yard seasons from 32-34


This whole thing is silly.
Yes not many WRs are still good into their 30s, but a lot of the elite ones are, and that doesn't seem to really change based on weather.
 

RedOctober3829

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Just go get Julio Jones, please. We don't have a bona fide #1 WR on the roster and he makes the team better. The hand-wringing about older WR's is all well and good, but I'll take the chance that Jones gets revitalized leaving Atlanta and has a couple of monster years ahead of him. If he goes to a conference rival and makes them better, we'll all be criticizing BB for not getting him.
 

bsj

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i spent 20 minutes today scouring rosters to see if there is another WR anywhere that Bill is actually going to pull the trigger on while hiding under the Julio smokescreen. But I couldn’t find anyon (ODB isn’t going anywhere).

so it’s Julio or no one
 

BigSoxFan

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Just go get Julio Jones, please. We don't have a bona fide #1 WR on the roster and he makes the team better. The hand-wringing about older WR's is all well and good, but I'll take the chance that Jones gets revitalized leaving Atlanta and has a couple of monster years ahead of him. If he goes to a conference rival and makes them better, we'll all be criticizing BB for not getting him.
Seriously. And at some point soon we’re going to be breaking in our shiny new QB. Having Julio here for that would be immensely helpful. I don’t really care if he breaks down at some point. We won our SBs. I’m here for the entertainment. Julio would be the most exciting acquisition since Moss.
 

TripleOT

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Most definitely trade for Jones if the price is a two. The guy’s an amazing WR who can stretch out defenses, something a run dominant team needs to turn five yard runs into 15 yard runs, with two safeties back and not jamming up the run game.
 

Mystic Merlin

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Most definitely trade for Jones if the price is a two. The guy’s an amazing WR who can stretch out defenses, something a run dominant team needs to turn five yard runs into 15 yard runs, with two safeties back and not jamming up the run game.
If he looks noticeably better/more explosive than he did in 2020, sure, but it is very possible we don’t see the Julio of 2019 again.

I think trading a third plus for him (maybe with conditions based on playing time that could upgrade it) would be a reasonable risk, but this is no slam dunk that you will get a dominant outside receiver.
 

BigSoxFan

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If he looks noticeably better/more explosive than he did in 2020, sure, but it is very possible we don’t see the Julio of 2019 again.

I think trading a third plus for him (maybe with conditions based on playing time that could upgrade it) would be a reasonable risk, but this is no slam dunk that you will get a dominant outside receiver.
Wasn’t he playing hurt for much of 2020? I’d be pretty surprised if he’s AJ Green level toast next year.
 

ehaz

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If he looks noticeably better/more explosive than he did in 2020, sure, but it is very possible we don’t see the Julio of 2019 again.

I think trading a third plus for him (maybe with conditions based on playing time that could upgrade it) would be a reasonable risk, but this is no slam dunk that you will get a dominant outside receiver.
There were no available receivers this off-season that looked “noticeably better/more explosive” than Julio did in 2020. Why are we acting like he sucked last year?

He played 9 games. Averaged out to 16, he goes for 91 receptions and 1371 yards. Receivers that good do not hit FA. That’s better than Allen Robinson, who was franchised. You give up a second every day for that.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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i spent 20 minutes today scouring rosters to see if there is another WR anywhere that Bill is actually going to pull the trigger on while hiding under the Julio smokescreen. But I couldn’t find anyon (ODB isn’t going anywhere).

so it’s Julio or no one
And a pass on ODB even if he was available? In 2020, he posted just a 52% catch rate and a decent but not elite QB rating when targeted at 89.1 (#80 in the league). He also missed 9 out of 16 games in 2020, resulting in his career-low 23 total receptions for the year.

Now, Beckham's contract runs until 2023 (same as Jones) but no dead cap hit after this year. That's a plus but I would also guess that he's not available, especially on a SB-aspiring Browns team (or would cost a lot more than Jones if he was).

So yeah, it's Julio or no one for me too.
 

Ed Hillel

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Trade a 3rd rounder and give jersey #28.
True story, a few years ago I was in Vegas and Julio Jones came and sat down at the table my buddy was playing blackjack. It was just the two of them. We debated having my friend throw down a $283 bet, but decided some day he might be a free agent and didn’t want to ruin it. You’re welcome in advance, Patriot Nation.

Also of note, we also saw Anthony Davis there. We thought the same, so...
 

Mooch

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I believe I just heard Dianna Russini say on KJZ that Tennessee is not considered a leading candidate to get Julio Jones.
As mentioned upthread, they don't have the cap space.

My guess is that it will between the Pats and the Raiders.
 

Mystic Merlin

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What is the timing? What upcoming dates matter for the timeline?
June 2nd is one. On it after that date the Falcons can trade Jones and split the dead cap hit between 2021 and 2022. They have to do that in order to gain themselves material cap space; if they trade him effective before June 2nd then his entire dead cap charge hits the 2021 cap, effectively defeating the purpose of the trade.

The start of camp in late July is probably the second key date because they need to sign their rookies to get them on the field, and right now they don’t have the cap space to do so.

He will get traded, and probably pretty quickly in June.
 

cshea

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They could probably do a trade now but not make it official until post 6/1. Kinda like the pre-league year deals like Wentz to Indy and other trades that happen after the SB and before the new league year. But maybe I'm wrong.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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I believe I just heard Dianna Russini say on KJZ that Tennessee is not considered a leading candidate to get Julio Jones.
I believe you are correct, sir:

View: https://twitter.com/diannaESPN/status/1397908877346324484?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1397908877346324484%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10

"As we watch Titans players fiercely recruit Julio Jones on social media, I was told Atlanta has actually had discussions with Tennessee.
As of now, they are still talking but I was told this “is a long shot” for the Titans to land Jones."
 

Saints Rest

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Once he is traded, the new team would only have cap hits that equal actual salary for each year, with no dead cap for a future cut, correct?
So roughly $15.3M in 2021, and then $11.5M in each of 2022 and 2023. But if he were cut before Game 1 of 2022, no cap hit.
Am I correct?
 

bsj

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Im not saying its the winning offer, or even the offer the Patriots would make, but 2nd + Harry would seem to be a very very strong bid?
 

SeoulSoxFan

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There is a stat that says just a portion of mid/late 1st round picks get their 5th year options picked up.

If you're picking in the 20's and below, wouldn't a 2022 1st make sense for Jones & a 5th rounder? Picking that late assumes you already are a solid team and think Jones will help to push you over the top.
 

gammoseditor

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“Including an offer for a future first round draft pick” could be a first with a second or third going the other way. Just seems like ATL trying to drive up the price.
 

Super Nomario

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Once he is traded, the new team would only have cap hits that equal actual salary for each year, with no dead cap for a future cut, correct?
So roughly $15.3M in 2021, and then $11.5M in each of 2022 and 2023. But if he were cut before Game 1 of 2022, no cap hit.
Am I correct?
Yes, the cap hits would equal the salary, but in Jones' case, there would be dead money because some of the salary is guaranteed: all of his 2021 salary and $2 MM of his 2022.
 

RG33

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While I would be okay with the Patriots trading a late 1st-rounder for him, I don’t think that will end up happening.

This feels like negotiating, and regardless of who offers what, you have to think that Julio will have some level of input on things because it would be easy for him to say he is not showing up or not re-negotiating his deal etc.

I think a 2nd + Harry gets it done pretty easily.
 

tims4wins

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It may help Atlanta save face a bit if they can say they got a 1st rounder in return. For instance if the Pats offered their 1st + Harry for Atlanta's 2nd, I could see both teams being ok with that kind of deal. I think Pats 1st for Atlanta's 3rd may be a bit too much to give up?
 

Cellar-Door

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If he looks noticeably better/more explosive than he did in 2020, sure, but it is very possible we don’t see the Julio of 2019 again.

I think trading a third plus for him (maybe with conditions based on playing time that could upgrade it) would be a reasonable risk, but this is no slam dunk that you will get a dominant outside receiver.
I'm gonna say this.....
I don't think you watched much if any Julio Jones last year.
He battled injuries, but outside a game where he was obviously playing hurt, he was as explosive as he's ever been.
If we take out the GNB game (he was hurt before, only played 21% of snaps then missed the rest and the next weeks).... he was on pace for one of his best seasons on the highest YPT of his career.

Julio may struggle with injuries, we don't know, but last year when he played, both before and after injuries he was just as good as he's ever been. He had no drop off in performance
 

BaseballJones

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Just for the record...

2015-2019: 64.3% catch rate, 108 rec, 1,620 yds, 6 td per 16 games
2020: 75.0% catch rate, 91 rec, 1,371 yds, 5.3 td per 16 games (projected)

I mean, sign me up for that 2020 production please. Dude was really good last year. Just injured is all.
 

radsoxfan

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Put me in the "Atlanta bluff or it's a 1st for Julio + 2nd or 3rd" camp.

I'm sure this is a dumb question, is there some specific reason NFL teams can't put protections on 1st round picks like in the NBA? Just not allowed?
 

BusRaker

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"Future" first round draft pick. Is there any other kind? (queue Jack Nicolson GIF)
 

gryoung

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I've always been a Julio Jones fan, starting the first time I saw him at Alabama. Big, fast, great hands, and blocks downfield.

Outside of his age and mileage, which have been discussed, here are my two concerns with bringing him onboard.

1. The cost to the Pats and what it does to their cap over the next few years.
2. How any potential replacement of his buddy at QB impacts his performance and contribution to the locker room.
 

OurF'ingCity

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How any potential replacement of his buddy at QB impacts his performance and contribution to the locker room.
Mac Jones is going to replace Cam this year only if Jones is clearly better or if Cam is hurt. Either way I can't see Julio getting too upset at that - as much as he is friends with Cam I can't imagine he'd prefer getting targets from an inferior QB.
 

Salem's Lot

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How good - or not good - is Harry? Talk to me like I'm a Falcons fan who hasn't watched every Patriots snap from the past several years...why would I want to see him included in a trade? (You guys seem to badmouth him a lot more than you praise him.)
He’s a stiff. Slow and big. Doesn’t use his size to get separation. If Atlanta wants him they can probably get him on waivers in a few months.