Agreed. Big average separation on targets only tells me that the QB is throwing to a guy only when wide open.
Yeah, I mean, like any metric, there's some noise in there, right? But if this number is about targets, then it means that when the QB throws you the ball, here's on average how much separation you have. And if you are open on other plays and the QB doesn't throw you the ball, what good is it? I guess the point is that the metric shows that Harry gets more open than we think he does.
So why is his career catch rate just 57.9%?
So this is wildly unfair, but let's compare him to Calvin Ridley, who also has a separation average of 2.9 yards, like Harry.
2020 stats....
Average cushion:
- Ridley: 6.1 yards
- Harry: 6.0 yards (or 3.6 inches less)
Separation:
- Ridley: 2.9 yards
- Harry: 2.9 yards
Targeted Air Yards*
- Ridley: 14.9 yards
- Harry: 8.2 yards
*The average passing air yards per target for the receiver, by measuring the yards downfield at the time of all passing attempts that the receiver is the target. This stat indicates how far down the field they are being targeted on average.
Targets/Catches (Catch%)
- Ridley: 143/90 (62.9%)
- Harry: 57/33 (57.9%)
Drops (Drop%)
- Ridley: 0 (0.0%)
- Harry: 1 (1.8%)
So they got basically the same cushion when they lined up. They got the same amount of separation when thrown to. Virtually the same number of drops (1 vs. 0). But Ridley has a better catch percentage, despite being thrown to MUCH further downfield on average.
In other words, it's not like Harry is being smothered compared to Ridley. It's not like Harry is not getting similar separation - he is. It's not like he's dropping passes left and right (he's not). He basically isn't being thrown to nearly as much - 4.1 targets per game for Harry vs. 9.5 targets per game for Ridley.
So you have a much better QB throwing a LOT more to Ridley, a lot further downfield than Harry. I wonder what happens if you put Harry on Atlanta last year instead of New England.
How much of this is due to their respective quarterbacks? Matt Ryan vs. Cam Newton?