The Red Sox ARE good. So now what?

grimshaw

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I was going to post this in the other thread, but new threads are better.

It would appear that with the recently demoted Franchy and the DFA'd Brice, that the Sox are at the end of their roster evaluation phase.
It's nearly June, the Sox are still near the top, and about to grind it out against the big boys in the next few weeks so need to be at their best. What do they do?

--1b is their biggest need, now that Arroyo and Santana can hopefully get Marwin off the diamond more (this is basically what he was last year). We're all pulling for Dalbec. He has shown signs of life but this isn't a veteran waiting to return to a certain level. This is a position that needs to produce and a .257 OBP isn't something they can afford to trot out much longer.

-2b could be better. Kike and Arroyo have been so-so but are not long term solutions.

-Pitching as a whole has been good. The weakest links in the pen aren't that bad, though the best next to Barnes aren't that great. E-Rod has really struggled but he's not going anywhere. If/when Houck and, Seabold are available again they'll build some depth back

This is what I'd like to see (aside from Duran):

-For 1st base. I'd move Santana over there semi-permanently for the next month. Not ideal, but it's too early for trade season. Then I'd kick the tires on Carlos Santana. He is signed through '22 with the Royals and still mashing. The Royals as usual aren't going anywhere this season. Maybe Jesus Aguilar is a lesser option with the Marlins who don't enjoy arbitration. Aside from that there's a remote shot Casas could force the issue by September.

-For 2b. Get by with who they have for another few weeks, then give Downs a look for a few weeks after that if he is holding his own in AAA. Then they would have an idea before the deadline if he'd cut it.

-Bullpen. Internally there is little, but I'd definitely want to see what Kaleb Ort could do.
View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1395551832085303304

Ryan Brasier will also be back at some point.

What would you all do?
 
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TapeAndPosts

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All I know is that collectively we need to come up with an "Ort Cloud" one-liner.
"Like a comet from the cloud that bears his name, the career of Red Sox right-hander Kaleb Ort flared briefly in the light of the sun, before returning forever to the deep void of space."
 

BornToRun

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* Thinks about bullpen *

* glares at Cubs for having the audacity to start playing better *
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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--1b is their biggest need, now that Arroyo and Santana can hopefully get Marwin off the diamond more (this is basically what he was last year). We're all pulling for Dalbec. He has shown signs of life but this isn't a veteran waiting on to return to a certain level. This is a position that needs to produce and a .257 OBP isn't something they can afford to trot out much longer.
Unless they surprise me and call up a position player today to replace Cordero, I don't think there's a chance that we see less of Marwin. Not with a three-man bench and the way Cora likes to get guys regular rest. The versatility of Marwin and Kike and Santana are the justification for the short bench. Nobody is getting buried there.

As for addressing their weak spots, I'm not going to get my hopes up too high. If they can find an inexpensive (in terms of trade costs) way to upgrade 1B, 2B, or the bullpen, I imagine they'll do it, but I'm not expecting much. I see Bloom being disciplined about the re-build and not selling out just to win now. They'll go as far as the team they have now can take them.
 

Merkle's Boner

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While I do agree that they are good, I don’t want to see them doing anything too drastic until we see decent results from the upcoming 15 games against the Yankees, Astros, and Rays.
 

chawson

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Is this the trade deadline thread then?

One notable thing is how fortunate we’ve been with injury. Knocking heavily on wood here, but the Sox have the second-fewest cumulative IL days in baseball so far (Cleveland), with most of that total coming from Sale, who we knew was hurt, and Brasier, who’s no great loss. There’s a lot of luck involved there, but Bloom’s design to staff the roster with half a dozen above-average utility players has certainly helped.

Carlos Santana would be a decent add but I doubt the upgrade over Dalbec/Santana is worth taking on that salary, especially given the opportunity cost of getting Dalbec PAs at the major league level. Santana is also gonna be solid, I think, but if we need a 1B I’d rather send Chavis and a low arm over to Colorado for Cron. The Rockies tend to have a thing for faith-driven players, and Chavis could fill the gap at third that Welker was supposed to.

I think the all-in Blue Jays will definitely add, but I’m not sure what the Yankees are going to do. They’ve been playing pretty well, but look really vulnerable after lengthy injuries to Kluber, Hicks, Voit and Stanton (though the latter is about to return) and offensive declines from every regular besides Judge. They’ve been committed to stay under the tax, and it’ll be interesting to see who Cashman offloads to stay under the threshold if they bring in reinforcements.

The next stretch should tell us a lot, but we’re also fortunate to catch the Astros and Yankees at what looks to be much less than full strength.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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Is this the trade deadline thread then?

One notable thing is how fortunate we’ve been with injury. Knocking heavily on wood here, but the Sox have the second-fewest cumulative IL days in baseball so far (Cleveland), with most of that total coming from Sale, who we knew was hurt, and Brasier, who’s no great loss. There’s a lot of luck involved there, but Bloom’s design to staff the roster with half a dozen above-average utility players has certainly helped.
How soon they forget
41502
 

chawson

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Ha. Was trying for brevity in that throwaway line there but no slight to Brasier’s performance. Since we’ve got the second-best reliever fWAR in the AL, his absence hasn’t registered to me as a great loss.

To me, Brasier’s an injury-prone 33-year-old 7th inning setup man with dominant streaks and tough stretches. He was revelatory for parts of 2018 and mostly mediocre in 2019. Good guy to have in the pen if he’s throwing well but I don’t think he’s ever been a foundational guy.
 
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Lose Remerswaal

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Ha. Was trying for brevity in that throwaway line there but no slight to Brasier’s performance. Since we’ve got the second-best reliever fWAR in the AL, his absence hasn’t registered to me as a great loss.

To me, Brasier’s an injury-probe 33-year-old 7th inning setup man with dominant streaks and tough stretches. He was revelatory for parts of 2018 and mostly mediocre in 2019. Good guy to have in the pen if he’s throwing well but I don’t think he’s ever been a foundational guy.
that's not an unfair characterization.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I think it's kind of a big deal that Renfroe now has bumped his cumulative OPS to over .700 on the season.
Conveniently starting on May 1st (he hit his low point on the last day of April) up to today he now has 5 HR's with a .879 OPS, providing some very much needed lower half lineup offense.
His career OPS sits at .770 which I'll gladly take. Add Malbec's improvement (and I suspect he'll continue to improve) and the offense really starts to get scary.
 

Max Power

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Add Malbec's improvement (and I suspect he'll continue to improve) and the offense really starts to get scary.
Bobby will age like fine wine?

It's nice to see the bottom of the lineup winning a few games recently. If that keeps up, this team has as good a chance as any to win the division.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Bobby will age like fine wine?

It's nice to see the bottom of the lineup winning a few games recently. If that keeps up, this team has as good a chance as any to win the division.
Bobby Malbec would be a good user name. I'm partial to Joey Cabernet myself
 

nattysez

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While I do agree that they are good, I don’t want to see them doing anything too drastic until we see decent results from the upcoming 15 games against the Yankees, Astros, and Rays.
The MFY are playing poorly and appear to have worse bullpen woes than the Sox.

Houston has also been scuffling.

The Sox can't end their seasons in June, but it's critical that they take advantage of catching two good teams on a downswing.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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The MFY are playing poorly and appear to have worse bullpen woes than the Sox.

Houston has also been scuffling.
But the Bosox have continued to play well but have still lost first place to Tampa. The margin for error in the AL East is very slim.
 

TapeAndPosts

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But the Bosox have continued to play well but have still lost first place to Tampa. The margin for error in the AL East is very slim.
If the Rays keep winning 9 out of every 10 games for the rest of the season, we will just tip our cap to them. But they won't, so we just have to keep it up, and take advantage when they get a little colder.

The AL East is a beast this year, and for a while there were four teams within a game or game and a half of each other. Things could still change and the Yankees could surge of course, but at the moment two teams are pulling away from the other two. I'm glad we're one of those.
 

JimD

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I don't expect the Sox to keep up a .615 pace given the difficult schedule ahead, but if they can play .550 ball down the stretch, that would net 92 wins at the end of the season. I'll gladly take that and see what happens - if the Rays or MFY's can better that total, so be it.
 

nvalvo

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Just took a look through the schedule. Remaining, we have:

0 games v. ATL, 2 games @ ATL
6 games v. BAL, 3 games @ BAL
0 games v. CHW, 3 games @ CHW
3 games v. CLE, 3 games @ CLE
0 games v. DET, 3 games @ DET
3 games v. HOU, 4 games @ HOU
4 games v. KCR, 3 games @ KCR
0 games v. LAA, 3 games @ LAA
1 game v. MIA, 0 games @ MIA
3 games vs. MIN, 0 games @ MIN
2 games v. NYM, 0 games @ NYM
10 games v. NYY, 9 games @ NYY
0 games v. OAK, 3 games @ OAK
3 games v. PHI, 0 games @ PHI
0 games v. SEA, 3 games @ SEA
6 games v. TBR, 10 games @ TBR
3 games v. TEX, 0 games @ TEX
8 games v. TOR, 6 games @ TOR
0 games v. WSN, 3 games @ WSN

52 home, 58 away — which might actually be in our favor given how much better the team plays on the road. But we've yet to head out west, and we've already played half of our games against Baltimore, but barely played NYY, TOR and TBR.

.500 ball going forward gets us to 87 wins, .527 ball gets us to 90 wins...
 

IpswichSox

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In March, I would have been doing backflips if I thought we we could win 87 games or more. I had the team at about 82 but prepared for the wheels to come off because of underperformance, the rotation, karma, etc. I trust Chaim at the trade deadline. Reading between the lines of his public comments, he's not going to abandon the plan just because the team is currently playing above just about everyone's expectations -- that is, he's not going to Dombrowski the farm system to make a key July trade. He's already demonstrated the ability to find 2013-types that affordably address need.
 

nvalvo

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19 vs the Yanks
16 vs the Rays
14 vs the Jays

49/110 vs direct competition.
Exactly. The East is a wide open four team race. If the Sox are hot at the right times, as we were when we played Tampa in April, we could absolutely win the division, but if we're cold or hurt at the wrong times, we could still easily come fourth — or anywhere in between.

(Baltimore looks to have fifth sewn up after their long losing streak.)
 

bsj

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I'd keep an eye on on Asdrubal Cabrera. Professional hitter in the last year of a cheap contract. Can play 1B. And the DBacks are fading badly in a tough division.
 

YTF

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I'd keep an eye on on Asdrubal Cabrera. Professional hitter in the last year of a cheap contract. Can play 1B. And the DBacks are fading badly in a tough division.
I love Marwin's flexibility, but Cabrera can cover some of the same positions, the additional payroll would be minor and his bat would look better in the bottom third of the lineup. I wonder what it might take to get him. Send Gonzales, eat the rest of his contract and a low minor leaguer?
 

bsj

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I love Marwin's flexibility, but Cabrera can cover some of the same positions, the additional payroll would be minor and his bat would look better in the bottom third of the lineup. I wonder what it might take to get him. Send Gonzales, eat the rest of his contract and a low minor leaguer?
Other thing to keep in mind is given how cheap and versatile he is, there may be a number of suitors. But yeah, he’d be a real bump in production. I’m thinking more so about the black hole that is 1st base than anything.
 

YTF

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Other thing to keep in mind is given how cheap and versatile he is, there may be a number of suitors. But yeah, he’d be a real bump in production. I’m thinking more so about the black hole that is 1st base than anything.
I think/hope Chaim acts on this sooner rather than later. Not just because of potential suitors, but also because of how tight the division may shape up to be. You don't want to put yourself in a position of hoping 3 Wild Card spots come from your division if you can help it.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Darkhorse candidate for a bat: Johan Mieses. I know it's an extreme longshot but if he keeps up his current play, you never know. Good arm, average to decent speed, ok fielder, and coming into the year above average power.

Cross posting from the minor league forum: Johan Mieses is slashing .293/.369/.717 for the year (on a .250 BAbip!) in 103 PA with 12 HRs, 9bb/20k. He was recently promoted to AAA. Last 9 games: .371/.389/.886, 36 PA, 5 HRs, 1bb/6k. He turns 26 in a month but given the time off to covid, he's not your typical 26 year old in AAA. He hit 28 HRs as a 20 year old in A+ and followed that up with 24 HRs as a 21 year old, 16 of those HR in AA. He did struggle in AA mightily, but the power was still there. He struggled the following 2 years while still hitting for power and improving his plate discipline. He's looking like a guy who will make it to the MLB at this point, at least for a few at bats.

He's not on the 40 and Marcus Wilson is mashing too, but Marcus Wilson is also striking out a ton. Mieses is intriguing tho. Duran is ahead of both guys, obviously.

Cross post: Marcus Wilson is slashing .271/.386/.576 in in 101 PA with 15bb/40k. He also has 6 HRs and 1 HBP. Out of the 101 PA, he has put the ball in play 39 times. 17 for hits. Last 8: .360/.515/.800, 33 PA, 3 HRs, 7bb/10k. His BAbip for the season is a ridiculous .436. 16 of his 23 hits are for extra bases and he's been successful in all 6 SBA.

Soxhop posted this video of Mieses' HR yesterday in the minor league thread:

View: https://streamable.com/pzsxk7
 
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soxhop411

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Darkhorse candidate for a bat: Johan Mieses. I know it's an extreme longshot but if he keeps up his current play, you never know. Good arm, average to decent speed, ok fielder, and coming into the year above average power.

Cross posting from the minor league forum: Johan Mieses is slashing .293/.369/.717 for the year (on a .250 BAbip!) in 103 PA with 12 HRs, 9bb/20k. He was recently promoted to AAA. Last 9 games: .371/.389/.886, 36 PA, 5 HRs, 1bb/6k. He turns 26 in a month but given the time off to covid, he's not your typical 26 year old in AAA. He hit 28 HRs as a 20 year old in A+ and followed that up with 24 HRs as a 21 year old, 16 of those HR in AA. He did struggle in AA mightily, but the power was still there. He struggled the following 2 years while still hitting for power and improving his plate discipline. He's looking like a guy who will make it to the MLB at this point, at least for a few at bats.

He's not on the 40 and Marcus Wilson is mashing too, but Marcus Wilson is also striking out a ton. Mieses is intriguing tho. Duran is ahead of both guys, obviously.

Cross post: Marcus Wilson is slashing .271/.386/.576 in in 101 PA with 15bb/40k. He also has 6 HRs and 1 HBP. Out of the 101 PA, he has put the ball in play 39 times. 17 for hits. Last 8: .360/.515/.800, 33 PA, 3 HRs, 7bb/10k. His BAbip for the season is a ridiculous .436. 16 of his 23 hits are for extra bases and he's been successful in all 6 SBA.

Soxhop posted this video of Mieses' HR yesterday in the minor league thread:

View: https://streamable.com/pzsxk7
Here is the GIF of it taking a ride on a train

 

Yelling At Clouds

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This is sort of apropos of nothing, but how many of you know the team’s current stolen-base leader without looking it up?

It’s Christian Vazquez with five! Xander and Verdugo are tied for second.
 

YTF

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This is sort of apropos of nothing, but how many of you know the team’s current stolen-base leader without looking it up?

It’s Christian Vazquez with five! Xander and Verdugo are tied for second.
Generally speaking, it seems as though stolen bases aren't even a part of the game anymore. A few years ago you had guys like Altuve, Hamilton, Gordon, Villar, Turner and maybe a couple of more, but they were the exception. With the home run explosion of the past few years I think a lot of teams didn't want guys running for fear of A) distracting the hitter and B) potentially creating an out on the base paths when everyone seemed to be playing for the multi run homer. As a result I'm guessing a lot of organizations placed a lower priority on teaching what seems to be a dying art. How often did we used to hear the phrase "manufacturing runs" or "with this guy a walk is as good as a double" during a broadcast compared to now?
 
Watching the Houston series it was interesting comparing the performance of the Houston lineup overall to the Sox lineup. Of course this is all small sample size, but year to date Houston's lineup is much deeper, but the top performers are far below what the Sox feature. It really made me wonder what kind of damage the Sox would do with one or two more respectable bats -- I'm sure most of you have wondered the same. The Sox already have solid power, so IF there is going to be an acquisition it probably makes the most sense to look for a cheaper high OBP low SLG target. A quick search of the top OBP players with relatively low SLG, less pre-arb players returned the following names:

  • Carlos Santana (KCR, rental +1 @ 8.8m AAV): .393 OBP/.423 SLG
  • Anthony Rizzo (CHC, rental @ 16.5m AAV): .362 OBP/.434 SLG
  • Robbie Grossman (DET, rental +1 @ 5m AAV): .352 OBP/.387 SLG
  • Kolten Wong (MIL, rental + option @ 9m AAV): .343 OBP/.441 SLG
  • Corey Dickerson (MIA, rental @ 8.8m AAV): .342 OBP/ .391 SLG
Of these options Rizzo seems the least likely -- he has the most expensive contract and Chicago is leading their division.

Wong and Santana both belong to wildcard contenders, but if either team drops out they could maybe be available although with both divisions being weak and both players having an extra year of control it might be a long shot.

Miami is in the basement, but their run differential isn't as bad as their position in the standings. They are still likely to be sellers. Detroit is definitely a seller.

Disregarding the likelihood of being traded, Santana seems like the best fit for the team followed by Wong. Having a nearly .400 OBP guy hitting in front of JDM, X, and Devers would be amazing. Wong could potentially slot in either in front of or behind the big three to lengthen the lineup a bit in either direction. I don't know what kind of price these guys would command though, should they become available.

Dickerson and Grossman are both potentially decent upgrades that should be cheap to acquire and are likely to be available. I can't imagine Dickerson would command much of a return at all.

EDIT: @bsj Asdrubal Cabrera probably belongs on this list as well as you mentioned.

SECOND EDIT: Looking at BABIPs Grossman, Wong, Dickerson, and Santana all seem to be operating at around their recent career norms (although Santana's is still really low). Cabrera is a bit above his recent marks, for what it's worth.
 
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InsideTheParker

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This is sort of apropos of nothing, but how many of you know the team’s current stolen-base leader without looking it up?

It’s Christian Vazquez with five! Xander and Verdugo are tied for second.
I actually knew this, to my own astonishment. Maybe I remembered that b/c it is so unlikely.
 

MtPleasant Paul

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How about Andrew Benintendi (349 OBA/402SLG). Oh wait, we traded him (OPS+107), sending along $2.8 mill, in a winter when we acquired E. Hernandez (OPS+83), Marwin Gonzalez (OPS+61), Danny Santana (OPS+61) and Franchy Cordero (OPS+38).
 

Lose Remerswaal

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How about Andrew Benintendi (349 OBA/402SLG). Oh wait, we traded him (OPS+107), sending along $2.8 mill, in a winter when we acquired E. Hernandez (OPS+83), Marwin Gonzalez (OPS+61), Danny Santana (OPS+61) and Franchy Cordero (OPS+38).
You’re the guy in Houston who was pissed they gave up Larry Andersen for that Jeff Bagwell minor leaguer aren’t you?
 

bosockboy

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I’ll freely admit I was lukewarm on bringing Cora back due to the baggage and was fine with Sam Fuld or similar moving forward. I was wrong.

He’s just a terrific manager and thus far making this roster very competitive and squeezing .600 baseball out of it is incredible.
 

Yo La Tengo

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Good article by Jennings about the potential numbers crunch on the 40 man roster coming next year, which could mean moving some prospects in a trade later this summer:

"Beginning with the Mookie Betts blockbuster, the Red Sox have traded for 14 prospects in the past 16 months. That’s not counting young big leaguers like Alex Verdugo and Nick Pivetta. It’s not even counting Cordero, who’s currently with those prospects in the minor leagues. Five of those acquired prospects are on the 40-man roster, which is full. . . . Josh Winckowski, Durbin Feltman and Kutter Crawford [are] pitching well in Double A, and Kaleb Ort [is] putting up big numbers in the Triple-A bullpen."

Here's the list:

These #SP60 prospects are R5 eligible: IF J. Downs (2) OF J. Duran (3) OF G. Jimenez (4) RHP T. Ward (7) RHP B. Bello (9) RHP J. Winckowski (24) RHP D. Feltman (28) RHP F. German (29) RHP AJ Politi (31) RHP K. Ort (41) RHP A. Scherff (54) RHP K. Crawford (56) 1B T. Reed (60)

https://theathletic.com/2636141/2021/06/06/red-sox-look-like-buyers-not-sellers-but-how-much-are-they-willing-to-buy/?source=dailyemail
 

Devizier

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The, um, beauty of being so terrible at first base is that it's pretty easy to upgrade from there. Watching the Pirates this weekend, I was thinking that a limited service, middling journeyman like Colin Moran would be a massive improvement for the Red Sox, and he shouldn't cost too much (two more years of arb coming up).
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Good article by Jennings about the potential numbers crunch on the 40 man roster coming next year, which could mean moving some prospects in a trade later this summer:

"Beginning with the Mookie Betts blockbuster, the Red Sox have traded for 14 prospects in the past 16 months. That’s not counting young big leaguers like Alex Verdugo and Nick Pivetta. It’s not even counting Cordero, who’s currently with those prospects in the minor leagues. Five of those acquired prospects are on the 40-man roster, which is full. . . . Josh Winckowski, Durbin Feltman and Kutter Crawford [are] pitching well in Double A, and Kaleb Ort [is] putting up big numbers in the Triple-A bullpen."

Here's the list:

These #SP60 prospects are R5 eligible: IF J. Downs (2) OF J. Duran (3) OF G. Jimenez (4) RHP T. Ward (7) RHP B. Bello (9) RHP J. Winckowski (24) RHP D. Feltman (28) RHP F. German (29) RHP AJ Politi (31) RHP K. Ort (41) RHP A. Scherff (54) RHP K. Crawford (56) 1B T. Reed (60)

https://theathletic.com/2636141/2021/06/06/red-sox-look-like-buyers-not-sellers-but-how-much-are-they-willing-to-buy/?source=dailyemail
I have a hard time wrapping my head around how they are managing the 40 man and the ML roster. Along with my limited knowledge of prospects.... along with where they will be with guys like Kike, Renfroe, Marwin....
Obviously Downs, Duran and Jimenez are the top guys that they'll figure out a way to hold onto. Seems like they'd go out of their way to figure out how to keep Feltman, German and Winckowski because of high draft expectations and investment (Feltman) or parts of deals that Bloom values. I don't really know about the rest of the guys. Others on the board here seem to think there are some expendable parts on the 40-man and/or others that wouldn't be picked up by other teams.
Probably for another thread... but I'd appreciate any knowledge shared by y'all on this.
 

Max Power

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It seems like a lot of teams are going through the same things now. The missing minor league season has left everyone vague on who should be protected and who shouldn't. And the huge number of injuries means more players than usual have to be shifted on the 40 man for replacements at the major league level. I have no idea whether that means there's going to be more movement because good players aren't protected or less movement because there are 40 man crunches across the league.
 

Cesar Crespo

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They'd definitely protect Bello too. 45k/7bb in 31.2 ip this year with a 2.27 era. Sits at 94-95. I think Feltman might actually not be protected. He's a minor league MR and he hasn't had much success. It's not that big an investment at <560k.

A bunch of those guys are interesting but they are also old for the league, bullpen arms and/or far away from the bigs.

Duran, Downs, Jimenez, Bello, Winchowski are the definite keeps. Ward, Feltman, Crawford and Reed would be tough decisions. I doubt any of the other guys would be drafted.
 

johnnywayback

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They'd definitely protect Bello too. 45k/7bb in 31.2 ip this year with a 2.27 era. Sits at 94-95. I think Feltman might actually not be protected. He's a minor league MR and he hasn't had much success. It's not that big an investment at <560k.

A bunch of those guys are interesting but they are also old for the league, bullpen arms and/or far away from the bigs.

Duran, Downs, Jimenez, Bello, Winchowski are the definite keeps. Ward, Feltman, Crawford and Reed would be tough decisions. I doubt any of the other guys would be drafted.
I think Ward would be picked if we left him exposed, as would Kaleb Ort, based on his performance this year. Feltman, German, and Politi would be edge cases in my mind.

Alex Scherff seems like prime trade bait -- his stuff is really playing up in relief this year. Feltman, too, if someone thinks a change of scenery could restore some of his promise. But looking at the SP top 20, it's crazy just how limited our flexibility is. Casas, Downs, Duran, and Jimenez (1-4) would seem to be off-limits. Houck, Seabold, Ward (5-7) are hurt, as is Mata (11). Song (12) is flying airplanes. Pretty soon, you're in the range of guys who don't have enough value to headline a deal for a player of any significance -- you aren't going to get Anthony Rizzo for a package led by Brainer Bonaci or Blaze Jordan.
 

Cesar Crespo

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SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
I think Ward would be picked if we left him exposed, as would Kaleb Ort, based on his performance this year. Feltman, German, and Politi would be edge cases in my mind.

Alex Scherff seems like prime trade bait -- his stuff is really playing up in relief this year. Feltman, too, if someone thinks a change of scenery could restore some of his promise. But looking at the SP top 20, it's crazy just how limited our flexibility is. Casas, Downs, Duran, and Jimenez (1-4) would seem to be off-limits. Houck, Seabold, Ward (5-7) are hurt, as is Mata (11). Song (12) is flying airplanes. Pretty soon, you're in the range of guys who don't have enough value to headline a deal for a player of any significance -- you aren't going to get Anthony Rizzo for a package led by Brainer Bonaci or Blaze Jordan.
I could see Ort being picked, but he's also going to be 30 to start next season. Thad Ward just had TJ surgery on Thursday, too. So he's going to be out awhile. That may make him easier to be stashed, though.

As far as having value to headline deals, Jay Groome has far more value than a lot of the guys ranked ahead of him, especially Ward. That was before Ward had surgery too. Teams will have their own rankings and value players differently. I think a lot of the lists are inaccurate/outdated too, due to no 2020.
 

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
21,481
Rogers Park
I think a lot of the lists are inaccurate/outdated too, due to no 2020.
On that point, sounds like there are some big revisions coming in the various lists, likely for precisely this reason. BA's new top-100 list puts Casas and Duran at 27 and 29. Those are big jumps, especially for Duran.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,375
So..... just how high can I get my hopes/expectations for Duran? Because I followed Bogaerts and Betts in the minors and was very very high on both of them. And I want to think similarly about Duran, but I know I should be careful.

Someone give me a ruling on this.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
So..... just how high can I get my hopes/expectations for Duran? Because I followed Bogaerts and Betts in the minors and was very very high on both of them. And I want to think similarly about Duran, but I know I should be careful.

Someone give me a ruling on this.
Betts and Bogaerts were top 5-10 prospects in all of baseball, so Duran is a notch below. He doesn't have their track record and has more question marks. He's closer to Swihart, JBJ, WMB as a prospect.

Hope for an all-star and settle for a 4th OF. Probably somewhere between the two. It all depends on the power, really.