It seems like a lot of the mocks have Detroit going high upside prep with their pick (House or Jobe); is there something in Detroit’s history that makes this likely?
2021 Draft
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
- Start date
Callis/Mayo 7/7 mock draft:
1. PIT -- Marcelo Mayer
2. TEX - Jack Leiter
3. DET - Brady House
4. BOS - Jordan Lawlar
5. BAL - Henry Davis
Mocks to Sox (beginning w/ Callis 5/26 and moving forward, to include MLB, Law, Kiley McDaniel, FanGraphs and Baseball America):
Henry Davis: 5 (Callis 5/26, Callis 6/9, Law 6/24, Mayo 6/30, FG 7/6)
Jack Leiter: 4 (FG 6/14, Mayo 6/16, McDaniel 6/18, BA 6/25)
Jordan Lawlar: 3 (Mayo 6/2, Callis 6/23, Mayo 7/7)
Kumar Rocker: 1 (Law 5/27)
https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-mock-draft-top-10-picks-july-7-2021?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage
1. PIT -- Marcelo Mayer
2. TEX - Jack Leiter
3. DET - Brady House
4. BOS - Jordan Lawlar
5. BAL - Henry Davis
Mocks to Sox (beginning w/ Callis 5/26 and moving forward, to include MLB, Law, Kiley McDaniel, FanGraphs and Baseball America):
Henry Davis: 5 (Callis 5/26, Callis 6/9, Law 6/24, Mayo 6/30, FG 7/6)
Jack Leiter: 4 (FG 6/14, Mayo 6/16, McDaniel 6/18, BA 6/25)
Jordan Lawlar: 3 (Mayo 6/2, Callis 6/23, Mayo 7/7)
Kumar Rocker: 1 (Law 5/27)
https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-mock-draft-top-10-picks-july-7-2021?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage
Kiley McDaniel 7/9 mock draft:
1. PIT -- Marcelo Mayer
2. TEX - Jack Leiter
3. DET - Brady House
4. BOS - Henry Davis
5. BAL - Kahlil Watson
Mocks to Sox (beginning w/ Callis 5/26 and moving forward, to include MLB, Law, Kiley McDaniel, FanGraphs and Baseball America):
Henry Davis: 6 (Callis 5/26, Callis 6/9, Law 6/24, Mayo 6/30, FG 7/6, McDaniel 7/9)
Jack Leiter: 4 (FG 6/14, Mayo 6/16, McDaniel 6/18, BA 6/25)
Jordan Lawlar: 3 (Mayo 6/2, Callis 6/23, Mayo 7/7)
Kumar Rocker: 1 (Law 5/27)
https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/31782968/2021-mlb-mock-draft-30-kiley-mcdaniel-predicts-first-two-rounds
1. PIT -- Marcelo Mayer
2. TEX - Jack Leiter
3. DET - Brady House
4. BOS - Henry Davis
5. BAL - Kahlil Watson
Mocks to Sox (beginning w/ Callis 5/26 and moving forward, to include MLB, Law, Kiley McDaniel, FanGraphs and Baseball America):
Henry Davis: 6 (Callis 5/26, Callis 6/9, Law 6/24, Mayo 6/30, FG 7/6, McDaniel 7/9)
Jack Leiter: 4 (FG 6/14, Mayo 6/16, McDaniel 6/18, BA 6/25)
Jordan Lawlar: 3 (Mayo 6/2, Callis 6/23, Mayo 7/7)
Kumar Rocker: 1 (Law 5/27)
https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/31782968/2021-mlb-mock-draft-30-kiley-mcdaniel-predicts-first-two-rounds
For me its Leiter, Lawlar, and then a big gap to anyone else.
Really hoping we get one of those 2.
Really hoping we get one of those 2.
Keith Law 7/9 mock draft:
1. PIT -- Marcelo Mayer
2. TEX - Kumar Rocker
3. DET - Jack Leiter
4. BOS - Henry Davis
5. BAL - Kahlil Watson
Mocks to Sox (beginning w/ Callis 5/26 and moving forward, to include MLB, Law, Kiley McDaniel, FanGraphs and Baseball America):
Henry Davis: 7 (Callis 5/26, Callis 6/9, Law 6/24, Mayo 6/30, FG 7/6, McDaniel 7/9, Law 7/9)
Jack Leiter: 4 (FG 6/14, Mayo 6/16, McDaniel 6/18, BA 6/25)
Jordan Lawlar: 3 (Mayo 6/2, Callis 6/23, Mayo 7/7)
Kumar Rocker: 1 (Law 5/27)
https://theathletic.com/2696906/2021/07/09/2021-mlb-mock-draft-3-0-kumar-rocker-to-the-rangers-jack-leiter-to-tigers-in-keith-laws-latest/
1. PIT -- Marcelo Mayer
2. TEX - Kumar Rocker
3. DET - Jack Leiter
4. BOS - Henry Davis
5. BAL - Kahlil Watson
Mocks to Sox (beginning w/ Callis 5/26 and moving forward, to include MLB, Law, Kiley McDaniel, FanGraphs and Baseball America):
Henry Davis: 7 (Callis 5/26, Callis 6/9, Law 6/24, Mayo 6/30, FG 7/6, McDaniel 7/9, Law 7/9)
Jack Leiter: 4 (FG 6/14, Mayo 6/16, McDaniel 6/18, BA 6/25)
Jordan Lawlar: 3 (Mayo 6/2, Callis 6/23, Mayo 7/7)
Kumar Rocker: 1 (Law 5/27)
https://theathletic.com/2696906/2021/07/09/2021-mlb-mock-draft-3-0-kumar-rocker-to-the-rangers-jack-leiter-to-tigers-in-keith-laws-latest/
Law seems to have Rocker rated higher than everyone else. I still would be very happy with him.
So these mock drafts are essentially just message board posts written by sportswriters, right? They don't really seem to have any direct information about what these teams are looking to do. "Sox interested in top college prospects but also could maybe, you know, take one of those high school kids, I guess" isn't exactly deep insider knowledge.
Kiley McDaniel, Keith Law, etc. do have a ton of sources and their mock drafts are based on informed speculation, but as we know in other sports we know teams put up smokescreens this time of year.
Having a hard time getting excited about Henry Davis. Leiter or bust for me. If he’s gone, I want Rocker.
I want Leiter, but I must admit it would be tempting to hear RemDawg say "KOO-mah RAWK-ah"
Yeah, I can’t get there with Davis. Give me a Vandy pitcher. Leiter is clear favorite of mine but I’ll settle for Rocker if he’s a fall back option. No thanks on Davis.
Law may be right here but I don't know how plugged in he is with the Red Sox. He consistently says they will go college when I think that's more institutional knowledge for him than sourced information. Last year in Chaim's first draft, they took two high school bats with their first two picks. In 2018 they picked Cannon (college) and Lugo (high school) with their highest picks and in 2018 they picked Casas and Decker with their first 2 picks. I just don't see a lot of "they will go college" evidence in recent history. In fact, it looks like the opposite. Their recent history is high school bats.
FWIW, Kevin Goldstein of FG worked in Houston’s FO until very recently, and he’s not only been pretty candid about conversations with other FO types, but he’s also been writing behind-the-scenes stuff about the draft, trade deadline, etc. Consider too that a lot of FOs now employ former baseball writers from FG, BP, et al. None of which means any of these mocks are going to be accurate - teams do work the media, especially now - but I don’t think they’re totally just guessing, either (although in Boston’s case, nobody seems to know the plan if Leiter is gone).
He then posts this which seems to pour cold water on the excitement.
View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1413538062219595787
View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1413538062219595787
I'm also wondering if it's a given that the Sox take him if he drops to them. "Along with the Red Sox" would suggest so, but most of the mock drafts haven't seemed to play out that way.
Is there any situation in which a team (Boston in this case, obvz) can work out something with another team ahead of them that may not necessarily covet a certain player (Leiter in this case, obvz) in which that team drafting ahead of them agree to pick a certain player and agree to then trade that player to the lower drafting team for a certain prospect already in that lower drafting team's ranks? Hypothetically, Pittsburgh selects Leiter.... Boston takes Davis... .Boston and Pittsburgh then trade Leiter for Davis and also Gilberto Jiminez (for example*)
*Note- I do not want to deal Jimenez as I think he's going to be a stud CF- offensive potential of Verdugo but defensive potential of JBJ.
*Note- I do not want to deal Jimenez as I think he's going to be a stud CF- offensive potential of Verdugo but defensive potential of JBJ.
I'm also hoping that if Leiter doesn't work at no. 4, that Rocker is the "back up plan". a 1B/DH should have a higher offensive ceiling than what I'm seeing with Davis....
With all the talk of Leiter trying to force his way to the Sox, should we assume the Sox are also offering a fairly substantial amount over slot at 4? I'm interested if that would change the preferences for some here if we're comparing Leiter at $750k over slot vs someone like Lawlar, Davis, or Watson at slot value.
To be fair they didn’t project him as a 1B/DH, it was more of a “worst-case scenario” kind of thing regarding his catching ability. Worst case scenario for Rocker (besides injury) is the fastball doesn’t miss bats and he never develops a 3rd pitch.
And I think Davis has a very high offensive ceiling. He’s put up Spencer Torkelson college numbers and Torkelson is universally regarded as a top 5 prospect even though he plays 1B. I don’t think he’s Rutschmann/Torkelson good, but a more athletic version of Kyle Schwarber is not a bad get.
From his Louisville Roster Bio:
Personal: Parents are Christopher and Andrea Davis… Siblings are Olivia and Morgan… Majoring in sport administration… Wants to coach college baseball after college… His parents Christopher and Andrea are the greatest influencers on his athletic career… Enjoys listening to music, shooting guns and traveling in his free time… Favorite movie is The Pursuit of Happiness… Favorite athlete is Derek Jeter…Favorite team is the New York Yankees.
Pass.
Well he doesn’t wear #2 like Bogaerts and he isn’t NAMED Jeter so that’s a plus over the current roster.
Probably because Boston is good and a large market team, unlike the teams in front of them.
What is he even talking about? None of those numbers corresponds to Davis's stats for his career or in any single year, per B-Ref. What is a "career hit tool meter"? Why is he dismissing scouting EV and launch angle?
The second half of this tweet really reads like it was produced by a mediocre machine learning algorithm. Not clear at this point Gammo passes the Turing test.
Davis, for whatever reason, is the choice I have a hard time getting excited about. But then again, I probably am the silly.
I'm with you. I'm gonna be bummed AF if the one time we get this high we get a C
Re Leiter, I gotta think players who still have college as an option have more leverage to dictate teams, no?
I get FO folks teams know folks from other teams, but I really doubt there's a dude out there as plugged in as that. It's all guessing.
If Leiter really gives PIT/TEX/DET reason to believe he'd rather go back to college than sign with any of them, it might become rational for each team to pick someone they are more certain of signing. The problem is, if Leiter really wants to be signed by a team like the Sox (successful/big spending/historic), waiting a year isn't going to help. Right now the top choices in the 2022 draft would be Arizona — Baltimore — Pittsburgh (again) — Texas (again). So his bluff is probably a bluff, but the hope is that it creates just enough doubt that the 1-3 teams don't want to deal with it and instead go for someone else who they view as basically just as good.
There was a history of the Sox scouting Leiter and he played in some tournaments or elite leagues with Sox scouting or development folks? Sorry for the imprecision, but there is an unusual relationship between him and the organization going back to high school.
BA 7/9 mock draft:
1. PIT -- Marcelo Mayer
2. TEX - Jordan Lawlar
3. DET - Jackson Jobe
4. BOS - Jack Leiter
5. BAL - Kahlil Watson
Mocks to Sox (beginning w/ Callis 5/26 and moving forward, to include MLB, Law, Kiley McDaniel, FanGraphs and Baseball America):
Henry Davis: 7 (Callis 5/26, Callis 6/9, Law 6/24, Mayo 6/30, FG 7/6, McDaniel 7/9, Law 7/9)
Jack Leiter: 5 (FG 6/14, Mayo 6/16, McDaniel 6/18, BA 6/25, BA 7/9)
Jordan Lawlar: 3 (Mayo 6/2, Callis 6/23, Mayo 7/7)
Kumar Rocker: 1 (Law 5/27)
https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/mlb-mock-draft/
1. PIT -- Marcelo Mayer
2. TEX - Jordan Lawlar
3. DET - Jackson Jobe
4. BOS - Jack Leiter
5. BAL - Kahlil Watson
Mocks to Sox (beginning w/ Callis 5/26 and moving forward, to include MLB, Law, Kiley McDaniel, FanGraphs and Baseball America):
Henry Davis: 7 (Callis 5/26, Callis 6/9, Law 6/24, Mayo 6/30, FG 7/6, McDaniel 7/9, Law 7/9)
Jack Leiter: 5 (FG 6/14, Mayo 6/16, McDaniel 6/18, BA 6/25, BA 7/9)
Jordan Lawlar: 3 (Mayo 6/2, Callis 6/23, Mayo 7/7)
Kumar Rocker: 1 (Law 5/27)
https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/mlb-mock-draft/
McDaniel has the Sox taking catchers in both the first and second round. Is that a thing? Loading up on catchers?
They (Red Sox) may not see either as a future catcher and you get the most talented player available.
The latter I get. The former is probably a decent explanation. McDaniel's projected second round pick is Adrian Del Castillo, who sounds like maybe just a power bat?
Ah OK, thanks. 2018, picking 23rd and 60th, not top-of-the-draft talent you're projecting to the bigs with some certainty. Also both were high schoolers, who may be moved to any number of positions before hitting MLB.
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Okay, so they are. But calling it a hit tool meter is....odd.
Here's Kyle Battle's hit tool meter: 46xbh, 71bb, 47k, I guess he should be in play at #4.
Thanks, Ididn't kno the name and I don't think a team has taken catchers with their first two picks.