In a vacuum the 16th pick was fine. They had to unload Kemba's 2023 salary and that was the price. Al has $14 million guaranteed for '23, which works out to a cap hit of roughly $4.7 million in a stretch & waive. Or a little over $30 million less than Kemba's guaranteed money.
I don’t disagree with your point but that 26 number is way too low imo. Some will stagnate there but I’ve always used 28-30 at my avg peak window when a player has learned the game enough to still be able to implement their athleticism before beginning to lose it.
Maybe, but I have a hard time imagining this squad doing what the Clippers did last year. It would essentially take everything to break just right in terms of player development and health though. I just think they're treading water until next offseason when they have the opportunity to land Beal (or Plan B, if it comes to that). Then again, I wouldn't have predicted Atlanta being an ECF team last year, so what do I know? Sports, man.
As far as I know, the trade still isn’t completed. In the process, the Kanter TPE has expired. I’m guessing that Stevens is exploring the possibility of bringing back a player at up to 125% of his contract (~$12M) instead of a $9.7M exception.
Assuming that Brown's healthy that's not only a playoff team, it's a pretty good playoff team. By replacing Walker with Richardson and adding Horford to the C spot they've made a major defensive upgrade which will help spare their two primary scorers. Nesmith's defense really came on at year's end, if he builds on that that gives them a real 3&D player on the wing. But primarily what makes them a second tier contender is Tatum's performance after recovering from covid. He was a holy terror. That player will take a team a long way. Especially as there are other guys to do the grunt work.
I suspect that Williams is trying to show the Celtics that he can get in peak physical condition. One thing we know from 2021 is that Granite cannot play himself into shape. I think that's even more the case about playing in Vegas. A monastic regime would be better suited to shedding 20 pounds and adding a step to his perimeter defense.
I agree. We should be really good defensively and Tatum can carry an offense.
Kemba/Fournier/TT to Al/Richardson/Dunn is a very clear offensive downgrade but is also a very clear defensive upgrade. And Al is not without offensive value.
Even if they don't, they have to try. This offseason was absolutely barren when it came to available impact players. Re-signing Fournier, swapping Lonzo for Smart, signing Patty Mills or Rudy Gay to 2 years etc., these are extremely incremental moves that don't get the Celtics anywhere closer to winning a championship. The entire league can see and laugh at the tough position the Blazers are in with Lillard, them re-signing Powell is their version of us re-signing Fournier. They would kill to be in a position to try for a max FA next year.
Yep. Tatum and Brown's seasons last year aren't even a base, they will be better and potentially much better.
If Grant shows up in top condition he can contribute to the rotation as a small ball perimeter shooting 5.
I would have been thrilled with Delon Wright for TT. I'm not sure what's holding it up, but there are some bigger deals that could be interesting with ATL/SAC.
Something that Lowe mentioned on his podcast about next year... it's dry as hell out there already. One day into the 2021 offseason and basically all of the 2022 FAs are locked up. Next offseason is a desert. You have Beal, LaVine (but CHI is allegedly working on an extension now), Randle (if he doesn't extend) and.... woof. The RFA market is almost all extended already too.
26 is definitely a weird age to pick when Jordan won his first title at 28 and Magic won his first MVP at 27.
No.
We'll see how it plays out, but the re-set last year was strategic. If they don't use the mini-MLE this year it's more about not wanting to spend money for a 5 seed, because team building wise that player has value both on-court and potentially in trades, while costing nothing buy a small tax bill.
And that's fiscally prudent. But you can make the case that by paying the tax you might move the team from a 5-seed to, say, a 3-seed, and from there, depending on injuries, a lot can happen in the playoffs.
Not at all.
Well they own all their firsts and a bunch of controlled young players. I suspect they'll get their 3rd star via the trade market and not FA
Maybe, but somebody has to trade you the guy.
Dunn could be in the mix as well, though it's hard to tell what's going on with that deal (or if he'll stay in Boston if it goes through).
I agree but don't forget we have 4-6 young guys that are progressing well, and should have better production next year. I think we are a 4-5 seed assuming no injuries, and no other changes to roster.
Punting? Who should they have signed? What was the plan to contenders with the cap space and free agents available this season?
Sign some role players to 1+1 contracts using their exceptions that could help this year while keeping their ‘22 books as clean as they can.
Nope. Their approach seems logical to me.
4-5 seed? I’m not so sure about that. Off the top of my head you have Brooklyn, Milwaukee, Philly, Miami, and Atlanta who are better.
There’s three semi-related issues. First, any upgrade that comes with a multi-year commitment potentially impacts both the ability to acquire Beal and the price to do so. Second, because of the above and because we are not a ring chasing destination, the caliber of player available on a 1 year taxpayer MLE is likely fairly low. Third, while any tax bill this year is small, the repeater tax structure means that crossing the threshold from not being a tax payer to being a tax payer can have major ramifications down the road. That’s particularly true for the Celtics because we were a taxpaying team 2 years ago. If we are in the tax this year and next, we are repeaters in 2023. If we stay below this year, that gets pushed back to 2025 (assuming we end up a taxpayer next year). At that point, we’re talking about ownership saving potentially upwards of $50 million future dollars at the expense of a year of someone like Bjelica. It’s not hard to see why the prudent long term path is to wait a year.
Most people who are signing 1+1 this offseason the 2nd year is a player option, not team. Who do you think would take what we could offer who would have moved the needle?
On paper I agree but I think injuries or chemistry issues will hamstring 1-2 of that group.
I’m not convinced Philly, Miami or Atlanta are better than a healthy Celtics team.
They could do that, but we’re probably talking pretty slim pickings on guys who want a 5/1 deal to play on a fairly crowded roster. And using their exceptions means paying the tax this year (not a big deal this year since it would be a small tax), which would accelerate the repeater tax threshold 2 years, which is a big deal if the plan is to acquire Beal and be a perennial deep tax paying team for the 4+ seasons after that.
I think Miami should be damn good. Maybe not better-than-the-Bucks-or-Nets good, but a roster with Bam, Butler, Lowry, Robinson, Herro and Tucker, among others, trumps anything the C's, even at full strength, can put on the floor.
If they’re able to sign a guy like Beal, then this is a great plan. If not, what are we left with? We’ll be stuck in purgatory and then you could be open to the fact that Tatum/Brown may start to look elsewhere.
I guess my point is there isn't a great 2nd option that they're foregoing to try this, so it's not really that big of a gamble.
The exact same situation we’d be in if we signed a couple 1 year contracts?
+1. I'm feeling pretty much full green teamer about them coming roaring back next year as a strong defensive team that plays much tougher, and the Jays providing enough offense to keep them afloat on that end. I think they flushed out some serious problems that led to their lackadaisical play. 50-32.*
