Red Sox in season discussion

Heating up in the bullpen

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 24, 2007
1,082
Pittsboro NC
Co-sign on Canha. He's a totally decent CF, and very competent in the corners.

Getting Semien or Baez for 2B is way sexier, but Canha in CF and Kike back in the infield with the money getting spent on pitching would be AOK by me.
Again, small sample sizes and defensive metrics caveats...
Canha has a career -17 DRS and -5.7 UZR/150 in 1325 CF innings. And as I noted upthread, Kiké grades out better defensively in CF than at 2B. Canha's bat looks solid, including a nice reverse-split 120 wRC+ against RHP in 2021. But putting him in CF and Kiké at 2B looks like it would downgrade the two defensive positions that were positive for the Red Sox last year.
 

Heating up in the bullpen

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 24, 2007
1,082
Pittsboro NC
Lots of proposals to trade Renfroe in the thread, all of which raise the question: what is our sense of his value?

He was non-tendered at $3.1m last year after a poor season, so his value was basically nil quite recently. But he was pretty good (~2 WAR by both systems) this season. Apart from all the assists, the defensive numbers were pretty grim, but his SLG-heavy 114 wRC+ was impressive. He showed he could be an above-average bat against righties (.777 OPS), and an excellent hitter against lefties (.885).

Still, the trade value simulator thinks his trade value is quite low: that with his projected Arb award, he's basically at par, or a tic above. An example of a pitcher the sim thinks Renfroe could return: A.J. Puk. Yiiiikes.

I was a bit shocked by that until I reflected a bit. A standard 3-2-1 projection would suggest 1.6 bWAR or 1.1 fWAR for next season. That 2020 season really sucked. And because HR is basically the skill best-compensated by the arb system, he's likely to be paid a lot better in his next arb award: MLBTR suggests $7.6m, and they're generally pretty close.

I think the sim is still probably a touch pessimistic, but they're probably right in the big picture: there's not a ton of surplus value here, even with two more seasons of control. He's probably more valuable as a league-averageish player paid pretty fairly than he is as a trade chip.
I agree with you. Looking at Renfroe closely, he looks more like a non-tender candidate than trade bait. I'd like to see the Sox upgrade that position. Seiya Suzuki might make sense. The WEEI story linked upthread noted that MLBTR projects him to sign for 5/$55M. $11M in 2022 would only be a few $M more than Renfroe's likely arb salary.
 

YTF

Member
SoSH Member
Co-sign on Canha. He's a totally decent CF, and very competent in the corners.

Getting Semien or Baez for 2B is way sexier, but Canha in CF and Kike back in the infield with the money getting spent on pitching would be AOK by me.
Yep, Canha has pretty much played the outfield exclusively the past few seasons and played over 100 games in LF last season. He's got decent pop and while he does strike out a bit more than I'd like, the guy does know how to take a walk. And while he might prefer to settle in at one position, I think Kike' as an every day guy splitting time between 2B and CF in a five man rotation with Arroyo, Verdugo, Renfroe and Canha gives this team some nice flexibility with Canha also being able to rotate through the OF and spell Dalbec when needed.
 
Last edited:

Heating up in the bullpen

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 24, 2007
1,082
Pittsboro NC
By FanGraph's defensive scoring, Kiké was the 6th best CF in 2021, just a tick behind a familiar name -- Jackie Bradley Jr.
Over the past three years, he (Kiké) is ranked 4th with a UZR/150 of 15.2; he's up there with Harrison Bader (2), Billy Hamilton (3), Byron Buxton (5), Kevin Kiermaier (6), et al. Kiké is an elite CF. (Btw, Verdugo over that period is 59th of 98 with at least 300 innings, with a UZR/150 of -2.4, and Mark Canha is 73rd with -4.7.)

By contrast, in 2021 Kiké ranked 25th in 2B UZR/150 at -1.3. (BTW, Christian Arroyo ranked 1st, at 7.8.) Over the past three years, Kiké ranks 73rd out of 93 with at least 300 innings, with a -4.2 UZR/150.

The nut: Kiké is an elite CF and a mediocre 2B. I'm optimistic the Sox have the sense to leave him in CF and look for upgrades at other positions.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
11,920
Love everyone hopping on the Canha bandwagon. Two of Canha, Miller, Pederson, and Schwarber would have the offense more than ready to go. I get that people like Schwarber but he feels like a bit of a square peg and rushing to sign him quickly could be a mistake. There’s enough good FA’s and the Sox seem to be flexible in what kind of moves they need to make that they could benefit from waiting the market out a bit, but that’s easier said than done .
 

YTF

Member
SoSH Member
Love everyone hopping on the Canha bandwagon. Two of Canha, Miller, Pederson, and Schwarber would have the offense more than ready to go. I get that people like Schwarber but he feels like a bit of a square peg and rushing to sign him quickly could be a mistake. There’s enough good FA’s and the Sox seem to be flexible in what kind of moves they need to make that they could benefit from waiting the market out a bit, but that’s easier said than done .
IMO it shouldn't be Canha AND Pederson as they are pretty much the same guy unless Chaim also makes a move with Renfroe and/or Dalbec.
 

johnnywayback

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 8, 2004
1,421
Co-sign on Canha. He's a totally decent CF, and very competent in the corners.

Getting Semien or Baez for 2B is way sexier, but Canha in CF and Kike back in the infield with the money getting spent on pitching would be AOK by me.
I don't want Canha starting in CF, FWIW. Kike was way too good in CF -- I say leave him there.

That said, Canha's versatility allows him to effectively be the backup for a ton of positions -- platooning with Schwarber or Casas at 1B and allowing you to trade Dalbec, subbing for Renfroe or platooning with Verdugo in the corner OF, and then only playing CF when Kike needs a blow OR when one of the MI needs a day off (with Kike moving to 2B and/or Arroyo/Iglesias/whoever moving to SS). He could get 400 at-bats that way, and would represent an important brick in the wall keeping Franchy Cordero away from Fenway Park.

It doesn't make as much sense if you're planning on Dalbec getting 120 starts at 1B, but I think Duran-Dalbec-Rosario or whatever is likely the package I'd be offering for a pitcher.

EDIT: Or, what @YTF said.
 

Minneapolis Millers

Wants you to please think of the Twins fans!
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
4,753
Twin Cities
Canha looks like a versatile depth piece, but I'd be disappointed with him as a F/T starter at one position, especially at first. He has below avg power for a corner position. His OBP last year was propped up by a ton of HBP (not the healthiest way to get on base). As noted by others, he's not a great CF - no better than Renfroe there, really, and a poor substitute for Hernandez. He's RH, so not a platoon option with Dalbec.

There's a world where other moves make him a good fit, but it seems like a secondary option at best.
 

Minneapolis Millers

Wants you to please think of the Twins fans!
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
4,753
Twin Cities
I know I've made this point several times, but it bears repeating: learning a new position is hard. That makes it LESS likely that Schwarber signs in Boston. He has a say in where he ends up, obviously. While I'm sure he'd say all the right things if asked, I don't know why he would be jonesing to learn a new position if there are offers available for him to DH and/or play the OF.

He was a good soldier last season when he had no real say in the matter, and that probably didn't go unnoticed around the league. But I don't expect him to consider himself a 1B now because of the weird circumstance he found himself in last season.
I don't know. Schwarber has never been a good OF and he's not likely to get better. Learning 1B is a pretty common career move for lousy CR OFs and for good ones as they get older.

Schwarbs reminds me a bit of Matt Stairs, who started playing 1B in his late 20s and built a pretty good and long career out of being a bat first guy you could hide in LF or at 1B while also using as a DH and PH.
 

grimshaw

Member
SoSH Member
May 16, 2007
4,220
Portland
While I don't think he's the best fit with JD on the roster, the AL East has relatively easy left fields to cover where Schwarber would play the bulk of his time. As long as he could be convinced that he won't be a full time DH long term, I think they can find the room to get him in the lineup every day.

It would be nice to see if Verdugo could play right, trade Renfroe and they punted a short term left field platoon to give Durran more time. It's a position they could upgrade during the season if necessary.

I wouldn't move Hernandez to 2b under any circumstance.
 

johnnywayback

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 8, 2004
1,421
Playing around with Baseball Trade Values, Duran+Dalbec gives you a total value of 36.60, which is enough to get John Means (36.90) or Frankie Montas (39.90).
 

sean1562

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 17, 2011
3,620
Who are some seemingly undervalued guys that Bloom might target? His strategy last year was to sign Hernandez, Renfroe, and Marwin Gonzalez. 2 of 3 were huge, cheap additions. Canha seems to be a popular pick for an unsexy but potentially impactful bat. Who else out there are we overlooking? Is Matz a reliable option? 3.79 FIP last season.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
20,676
Maine
Who are some seemingly undervalued guys that Bloom might target? His strategy last year was to sign Hernandez, Renfroe, and Marwin Gonzalez. 2 of 3 were huge, cheap additions. Canha seems to be a popular pick for an unsexy but potentially impactful bat. Who else out there are we overlooking? Is Matz a reliable option? 3.79 FIP last season.
Josh Harrison? Bit on the older side (34) but has positional flexibility that Bloom seeks out. Only downside is he's a RHH. Left handed hitters should be the priority since outside of Devers and Verdugo, they're very lacking in that department.
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,660
Who are some seemingly undervalued guys that Bloom might target? His strategy last year was to sign Hernandez, Renfroe, and Marwin Gonzalez. 2 of 3 were huge, cheap additions. Canha seems to be a popular pick for an unsexy but potentially impactful bat. Who else out there are we overlooking? Is Matz a reliable option? 3.79 FIP last season.
I think we’ll have a better idea after the non-tender deadline December 1.

I’d be into someone like Josh Harrison, and Brad Miller has seemed like a roster fit for a few years. Someone mentioned Yoshitomo Tsutsugo earlier. I think the Tim Locastro add is interesting and I’d be curious to see if the Yankees tender a contract to Clint Frazier or trade him, but I don’t think he has any value.

Will the threat of a lockout and new CBA make teams less likely to tender contracts to guys on the bubble? I’d think teams may err on the side of trimming payroll, so maybe there’ll be an even bigger group of guys added to the FA pool, but who knows.
 

bohous

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 21, 2005
4,418
Framingham
What would you have to package with Verdugo to get Luis Castillo? That frees up LF for Schwarber and rotate him and JD in LF/DH.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
20,676
Maine
What would you have to package with Verdugo to get Luis Castillo? That frees up LF for Schwarber and rotate him and JD in LF/DH.
Playing around on the Trade Simulator, a package of Verdugo, Dalbec, and Whitlock would do the trick. Could also work substituting Jeter Downs for Dalbec. In other words, it's going to take a lot to get Castillo.
 

Van Everyman

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2009
26,993
Newton
Looking at Renfroe closely, he looks more like a non-tender candidate than trade bait.
Are we seriously entertaining the idea of non-tendering a guy who hit 31HR last year? I get that we think he might not put those numbers up again and might want to move him. But unless I’m missing some aspect of non-tendering, the idea that he has no value seems crazy to me.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
11,920
Renfroe at $7M likely has little value, given that there will be comparable players available in free agency. That’s the reason Sox fans would consider trading him, right? he’s a good player, but there’s a lot of guys like him.

He’s not a negative value, I just wouldn’t expect much return if they try to move him. The second year of control doesn’t seem likely to help much given the potential cost of another year of arb.
 
Last edited:

YTF

Member
SoSH Member
Are we seriously entertaining the idea of non-tendering a guy who hit 31HR last year? I get that we think he might not put those numbers up again and might want to move him. But unless I’m missing some aspect of non-tendering, the idea that he has no value seems crazy to me.
Renfroe's far from perfect, but a 29 year old who gave you 31 HR, 96 RBI, 16 OF assists from right field and has two years of team control left would seem to have considerable value.
 

Heating up in the bullpen

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 24, 2007
1,082
Pittsboro NC
Are we seriously entertaining the idea of non-tendering a guy who hit 31HR last year? I get that we think he might not put those numbers up again and might want to move him. But unless I’m missing some aspect of non-tendering, the idea that he has no value seems crazy to me.
Red Sox RF production was 19th in MLB in 2021 with Renfroe getting most of the playing time there. Along with C and 1B it’s a position that could use an upgrade.
Could the Sox live with Renfroe there again? Sure. But they could also upgrade. And if they’d prefer not to carry Renfroe’s $7M salary, non-tender might be the only option, because he doesn’t have much trade value at that salary.
 

Van Everyman

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2009
26,993
Newton
Red Sox RF production was 19th in MLB in 2021 with Renfroe getting most of the playing time there. Along with C and 1B it’s a position that could use an upgrade.
Could the Sox live with Renfroe there again? Sure. But they could also upgrade. And if they’d prefer not to carry Renfroe’s $7M salary, non-tender might be the only option, because he doesn’t have much trade value at that salary.
How is the bolded calculated? Don’t get me wrong – I don’t think Renfroe is some superstar in waiting necessarily. There’s a strong chance that we just got his career a year for a song, and there were stretches (including in the postseason) where he was hardly mashing. I also get that his arm may be better than his head when it comes to his defense.

But I also have a hard time imagining there were 18 teams that got more out of RF than we did with Renfroe, and less than a half dozen at that price.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
20,676
Maine
There is like zero chance of Renfroe being non-tendered. Henry is not that short on funds.
Yeah. Renfroe is a guy a team like the Red Sox don't get rid of unless he's the odd man out in an overcrowded outfield. That won't be the case when the deadline to tender contracts comes, so he'll get one. Now, come February if the Sox have signed or traded for a couple outfielders, it might be a different story.
 

bosockboy

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
19,862
St. Louis, MO

Heating up in the bullpen

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 24, 2007
1,082
Pittsboro NC
How is the bolded calculated? Don’t get me wrong – I don’t think Renfroe is some superstar in waiting necessarily. There’s a strong chance that we just got his career a year for a song, and there were stretches (including in the postseason) where he was hardly mashing. I also get that his arm may be better than his head when it comes to his defense.

But I also have a hard time imagining there were 18 teams that got more out of RF than we did with Renfroe, and less than a half dozen at that price.
FanGraphs Team Leaderboards:
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=rf&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2021&month=0&season1=2021&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2021-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31
By that chart, Red Sox got 1.8 fWAR out of RF. They have Renfroe at 1.6 fWAR, so 1.8 makes sense.
On the other hand, I hadn't noticed before that the numbers are a bit goofy. They've got the Red Sox with 144 games and 572 PA at the position, but other teams with as many as 413 games and 1483 PA. So I don't know how they're calculating the WAR numbers. My bad for not inspecting the chart more closely.
 

Albatross Contract

New Member
Apr 8, 2017
5
FanGraphs Team Leaderboards:
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=rf&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2021&month=0&season1=2021&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2021-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31
By that chart, Red Sox got 1.8 fWAR out of RF. They have Renfroe at 1.6 fWAR, so 1.8 makes sense.
On the other hand, I hadn't noticed before that the numbers are a bit goofy. They've got the Red Sox with 144 games and 572 PA at the position, but other teams with as many as 413 games and 1483 PA. So I don't know how they're calculating the WAR numbers. My bad for not inspecting the chart more closely.
Fangraphs calculates WAR for team at a given position by adding up the WAR of all the individual players who played that position for that team, including WAR from when they weren't playing that position. That's why the PA totals are goofy. It's possible they only include WAR from players "qualified" at that position, I'm not sure. Regardless, comparing team WAR by position on Fangraphs isn't very useful.
 

YTF

Member
SoSH Member
Red Sox RF production was 19th in MLB in 2021 with Renfroe getting most of the playing time there. Along with C and 1B it’s a position that could use an upgrade.
Could the Sox live with Renfroe there again? Sure. But they could also upgrade. And if they’d prefer not to carry Renfroe’s $7M salary, non-tender might be the only option, because he doesn’t have much trade value at that salary.
If $7M is the price for that production and an additional year of control I can imagine there would be potential suitors. I mean we have no idea what deals might be on the horizon. Multi player, multi team, money changing hands, etc...
 

Jerry’s Curl

New Member
Feb 6, 2018
2,518
Florida
Playing around on the Trade Simulator, a package of Verdugo, Dalbec, and Whitlock would do the trick. Could also work substituting Jeter Downs for Dalbec. In other words, it's going to take a lot to get Castillo.
I know it’s a hypothetical sim but in no way shape or form would I include Whitlock in any trade.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
20,676
Maine
I know it’s a hypothetical sim but in no way shape or form would I include Whitlock in any trade.
That is pretty much why I included him in the example. I could have thrown two or three other guys in there in his place, but I thought his presence in the package would emphasize how expensive Luis Castillo is likely to be. It will take a Whitlock or a Mayer-level prospect at the top of the package to engage the Reds.
 

shaggydog2000

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 5, 2007
11,482
Fangraphs calculates WAR for team at a given position by adding up the WAR of all the individual players who played that position for that team, including WAR from when they weren't playing that position. That's why the PA totals are goofy. It's possible they only include WAR from players "qualified" at that position, I'm not sure. Regardless, comparing team WAR by position on Fangraphs isn't very useful.
Under splits you can choose "RF" (or any other position) and that includes only innings/PA at that position. It does change the stats displayed from the regular "dashboard." That puts the Sox as 14th in baseball in RF WAR.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=6&season=2021&month=40&season1=2021&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2021-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31

If you want to look at qualified RF he is 20th:
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=rf&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=6&season=2021&month=0&season1=2021&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2021-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31

If you want to look at qualified RF only while playing in RF (to account for guys who DH'd or played other positions a lot), he is 12th:
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=rf&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=6&season=2021&month=40&season1=2021&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2021-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31

So yeah, nice return on the investment there.
 

RG33

Certain Class of Poster
SoSH Member
Nov 28, 2005
7,199
CA
That is pretty much why I included him in the example. I could have thrown two or three other guys in there in his place, but I thought his presence in the package would emphasize how expensive Luis Castillo is likely to be. It will take a Whitlock or a Mayer-level prospect at the top of the package to engage the Reds.
I really can’t see Chaim giving up elite talent/prospects for an SP with 2 years of control considering what we just saw in the postseason and his track record in Tampa Bay.

They for sure want to develop top-end SPs, but I would be stunned if he was willing to do a Verdugo/Whitlock type package for even an elite young SP like Castillo.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,375
Renfroe was really good for the Red Sox this past year. Not perfect, obviously, and not even great, but really good. bWAR of 2.3, which is worth well north of the ~$7 million he was making. He's pretty inexpensive for what he provides. I know his playoffs weren't great but he was very solid for them.

It wouldn't be the worst thing in the world if they didn't tender him but signed Schwarber, and moved Verdugo to RF and had Schwarber in left. I think they lose defensively in both places though, but Schwarber's bat is better than Renfroe's (despite Hunter's 31 hr and 112 ops+). Of course, that move is going to cost a lot more money, if money is a concern here.
 

soxhop411

news aggravator
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2009
46,274
While the Red Sox have plenty of flexibility and could almost maintain the status quo in the infield and the outfield, their defensive configuration left much to be desired in 2021. It seems far more likely that a shakeup is coming, at least at a couple of positions. Where could the Sox realistically get the most impact in a shakeup? — Tim F.

There’s a strong possibility the Red Sox make a quiet play for either Carlos Correa or Marcus Semien. If they land Correa, I think they’ll ask Xander Bogaerts to move to second base. If they sign Semien, he would play second base. I think they’ll also re-sign Eduardo Rodríguez or pivot to another similar starter, such as Steven Matz. I expect they’ll be aggressive in improving the bullpen. And if they can’t get Kyle Schwarber back, which they are trying to do, they might consider another left-handed hitter, such as Eddie Rosario.
https://theathletic.com/2950139/2021/11/12/mlb-free-agency-trades-and-offseason-outlook-jim-bowden-answers-20-questions-on-red-sox-angels-braves-more/
 

GB5

New Member
Aug 26, 2013
675
Was it the expectation of what Matz will get vs what EROD will get? I imagine Matz will get less in terms of length and amount that EROD. all things being equal, or close to equal, or even 20% close to equal??, I would much prefer EROD. I thought he had a good overall year, and there has been a ton of talk about him flagrantly tipping pitches. I have to imagine that is a reasonably easy fix.
 

EvilEmpire

paying for his sins
Moderator
SoSH Member
Apr 9, 2007
17,178
Washington
I won't be sad if the Sox sign Correa to a contract somewhere in the ballpark of what he is expected to get.

But I really don't expect Bloom to do that. Semien I could see though. And I think that could be a much better signing unless he gets a huge contract.
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,660
View: https://twitter.com/jeffpassan/status/1459164530320289794?s=21


This is interesting, Passan reporting that Seager and Semien are now likely to sign before the lockout. Novel Boras tactic if nothing else.

Man, it’s wild to see Bowden suggest that we might be in on Eddie frickin’ Rosario if we don’t re-sign Schwarber. Surprised he doesn’t see us trading for Benintendi too.
 

E5 Yaz

Transcends message boarding
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 25, 2002
90,014
Oregon
I imagine that during the GM meetings, Bowden sits alone at the end of the hotel bar and mutters to himself, "At least I'm not Steve Phillips"
 

Daniel_Son

Member
SoSH Member
May 25, 2021
1,683
San Diego
View: https://twitter.com/jeffpassan/status/1459164530320289794?s=21


This is interesting, Passan reporting that Seager and Semien are now likely to sign before the lockout. Novel Boras tactic if nothing else.



Man, it’s wild to see Bowden suggest that we might be in on Eddie frickin’ Rosario if we don’t re-sign Schwarber. Surprised he doesn’t see us trading for Benintendi too.
Man, I get the guy was an MVP candidate this year, but count me as someone who wants absolutely nothing to do with Semien in a long-term deal. He's had two great offensive years, but outside of that he's been league average or worse:

Age 22 - 80 OPS+
Age 23 - 90 OPS+
Age 24 - 98 OPS+
Age 25 - 99 OPS+
Age 26 - 97 OPS+
Age 27 - 95 OPS+
Age 28 - 139 OPS+
Age 29 - 89 OPS+
Age 30 - 133 OPS+

Someone's about to massively overpay for him.
 

Max Power

thai good. you like shirt?
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
7,877
Boston, MA
Man, I get the guy was an MVP candidate this year, but count me as someone who wants absolutely nothing to do with Semien in a long-term deal. He's had two great offensive years, but outside of that he's been league average or worse:

Age 22 - 80 OPS+
Age 23 - 90 OPS+
Age 24 - 98 OPS+
Age 25 - 99 OPS+
Age 26 - 97 OPS+
Age 27 - 95 OPS+
Age 28 - 139 OPS+
Age 29 - 89 OPS+
Age 30 - 133 OPS+

Someone's about to massively overpay for him.
Seriously. Correa is 4 years younger and a much better hitter and defender. He's had a hard time staying healthy, but Semien has had a hard time staying good.
 

gammoseditor

also had a stroke
SoSH Member
Jul 17, 2005
4,219
Somerville, MA
Semien leads all of mlb in fwar over the last three years. I don’t know what he’s going to get but it seems hasty to already assume it’s going to be a bad contract.
 

ehaz

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 30, 2007
4,948
Man, I get the guy was an MVP candidate this year, but count me as someone who wants absolutely nothing to do with Semien in a long-term deal. He's had two great offensive years, but outside of that he's been league average or worse:

Age 22 - 80 OPS+
Age 23 - 90 OPS+
Age 24 - 98 OPS+
Age 25 - 99 OPS+
Age 26 - 97 OPS+
Age 27 - 95 OPS+
Age 28 - 139 OPS+
Age 29 - 89 OPS+
Age 30 - 133 OPS+

Someone's about to massively overpay for him.
Isn't it notable that his two great offensive years came in his last two full seasons? Figuring it out and turning into a different hitter at age 28 isn't really unheard of. And we should weigh ~50 shitty games in a freak COVID season with a grain of salt. Even with those games included, Semien is hitting .268/.346/.509 (130 OPS+/15.8 bWAR) over his last 377 games with elite defense at second base.

I'd take him in a heartbeat for 4 or 5 years at $100-130M as the projectors are estimating. Especially over giving ~$300M to injury prone Correa/Seager.
 

EvilEmpire

paying for his sins
Moderator
SoSH Member
Apr 9, 2007
17,178
Washington
It will be interesting to see how many years they each get. I'd rather have Semien for four years than Correa for eight or ten.

But maybe Semien will get more than four and Correa less than eight. Who knows.
 

Daniel_Son

Member
SoSH Member
May 25, 2021
1,683
San Diego
Isn't it notable that his two great offensive years came in his last two full seasons? Figuring it out and turning into a different hitter at age 28 isn't really unheard of. And we should weigh ~50 shitty games in a freak COVID season with a grain of salt. Even with those games included, Semien is hitting .268/.346/.509 (130 OPS+/15.8 bWAR) over his last 377 games with elite defense at second base.

I'd take him in a heartbeat for 4 or 5 years at $100-130M as the projectors are estimating. Especially over giving ~$300M to injury prone Correa/Seager.
Sure, that's notable. He may have figured it out. But what's the greater likelihood - that he keeps turning in MVP-caliber seasons in his age 31-35 seasons, or that he goes back to what he's always been - a league-average bat or worse with positional flexibility? I think Ben Clemens says it perfectly: "a fringe All-Star who can handle either middle infield spot." I don't think that's worth anywhere near $25-30 million.
 

EricFeczko

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 26, 2014
4,823
Sure, that's notable. He may have figured it out. But what's the greater likelihood - that he keeps turning in MVP-caliber seasons in his age 31-35 seasons, or that he goes back to what he's always been - a league-average bat or worse with positional flexibility? I think Ben Clemens says it perfectly: "a fringe All-Star who can handle either middle infield spot." I don't think that's worth anywhere near $25-30 million.
Except Seager hasn't had 600 PA since 2017 -- Correra has had two seasons in his career over 600 PA. As a result, Carlos Correra has only three MVP-caliber seasons, and only one in the past four years. Corey Seager hasn't had an MVP-caliber season since 2017.

I'd take Siemien at four years over either Seager/Correra -- but if you're arguing none should be signed, that makes sense to me too.
 

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
21,478
Rogers Park
Renfroe was really good for the Red Sox this past year. Not perfect, obviously, and not even great, but really good. bWAR of 2.3, which is worth well north of the ~$7 million he was making. He's pretty inexpensive for what he provides. I know his playoffs weren't great but he was very solid for them.

It wouldn't be the worst thing in the world if they didn't tender him but signed Schwarber, and moved Verdugo to RF and had Schwarber in left. I think they lose defensively in both places though, but Schwarber's bat is better than Renfroe's (despite Hunter's 31 hr and 112 ops+). Of course, that move is going to cost a lot more money, if money is a concern here.
He was making $3.1m this year; $7m and change is his projected arb award for next year.

But again, I don't see many people proposing non-tendering Renfroe. Or rather — I should speak for myself — I am suggesting that he is worth his salary but likely has little trade value, and, because I am seeing a lot of posts proposing trading him for pitching, I am skeptical that he could return anything we actually want.

Because he had a 0 (or negative) WAR season in 2020, he's a tough projection going forward. If he is indeed a ~2 win player again for $7.6m or whatever it ends up being, that's tremendous. But he has a recent track record of being much worse than that, which is how we got him for free. It was 2020; maybe it doesn't mean much. But even if people are willing to discount the pandemic season somewhat, that's not a profile that I'm sending a starting pitcher for if I'm another team's GM, especially with guys like Eddie Rosario, Joc Pederson, Avisaíl García, Tommy Pham, Odúbel Herrera, Corey Dickerson and Michael Conforto on the market, some of whom are likely to sign for less than Renfroe's arb award is likely to be, there are other options for teams (eyeballing it: the Guardians, Tigers, Mets, Royals, maybe a few others) looking to add outfielders.

A concrete example: Tommy Pham is likely a better player than Hunter Renfroe, right? Renfroe will be 30 in 2022, Pham will be 33. Both are so-so defenders in the outfield corners. Renfroe is likely to hit 25-35 HR while Pham is more a 15-25 guy in a healthy season, but Pham has a career OBP about 60 points higher than Renfroe. Pham was an "honorable mention" at the MLBTR top-50 FA list, meaning they thought he would sign a contract worth less than the 50th FA, whom they had at 1/$6m.

Maybe you could get a late inning reliever or something, but we're probably not getting a 4/5 starter by dealing Renfroe.
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,660
Sure, that's notable. He may have figured it out. But what's the greater likelihood - that he keeps turning in MVP-caliber seasons in his age 31-35 seasons, or that he goes back to what he's always been - a league-average bat or worse with positional flexibility? I think Ben Clemens says it perfectly: "a fringe All-Star who can handle either middle infield spot." I don't think that's worth anywhere near $25-30 million.
I feel pretty good about Semien. He has developed some of the best plate discipline in the game, and that tends to age well. Like Schwarber, his chase rate is elite, the 16th best in baseball out of 159 eligible hitters (min. 1,000 PA) over ‘19-21, and his overall contact rate is also excellent at 81.3% (43rd in MLB).

Very few guys who fit the above criteria also hit for power. Here’s the total number of players who posted a chase rate of 26% or less, an overall contact rate of at least 80%, and an ISO of at least .200 (over 2019-21):

Soto, Betts, Bregman, Rendon, Winker, Semien

This is a relatively arbitrary set of criteria, but I’m trying to isolate guys with excellent plate discipline who also hit for power, and these are excellent players. I never want a team I cheer for to employ Alex Bregman, but I’d be happy if Marcus Semien was on it.
 
Last edited: