We were talking in one of the Marvel threads about recasting main stars. Duggar is basically the recasting of Chung. It’s a pretty unique skill to bring such an angry level of hurt to the game. The dude is a complete missle.
He is a fucking beast with the stiff arm.How about a game ball for Stevenson's stiff-arm. He is demolishing defensive backs with it
And I’m the guy who questioned how the Pats would get to 9-8 this year. Going to sit in the corner in time out for a bit.2nd fewest points given up in the entire league. Patriots have played 2 more games than Buffalo (who is in first) and 2 more games than New Orleans (who is 3rd).
Could very well be 1st when the games in hand are made up. Bills have a 42 point gap.
There was ZERO chance Bill was going for it on 4th & 3 there - the way the defense has been playing coupled with Atlanta down weapons on offense. And rightly so.4th-and-3 at midfield on the opening drive is not the worst time to punt. You don't really want to give the opponent the ball at midfield on its opening possession. And Belichick has to expect that the return team is not going to commit an egregious and unnecessary penalty. The first series on offense tends to be scripted, so a draw was probably on the table in that situation. I'm sure part of that decision is based on what was seen on film; Atlanta's run defense is not good.
A very likely outcome of punting there is... a 23 yard gain in field position. I'd rather have the chance to go for it on 4th down.To me, having the defense as a team strength weighs in favor of going for it on offense, not against.4th-and-3 at midfield on the opening drive is not the worst time to punt. You don't really want to give the opponent the ball at midfield on its opening possession. And Belichick has to expect that the return team is not going to commit an egregious and unnecessary penalty. The first series on offense tends to be scripted, so a draw was probably on the table in that situation. I'm sure part of that decision is based on what was seen on film; Atlanta's run defense is not good.
Yeah… I mean… they won 25-0 and the game was never close. It’s possible, I know this is really out there, that the guy who you think may have lost his fastball is actually really, really, really good at what he does. Let’s try to actually appreciate the masterpiece we’re given the fortune of watching.Fucking try to beat them.
Thank you for the cheap shot - cheap on multiple levels.Yeah… I mean… they won 25-0 and the game was never close. It’s possible, I know this is really out there, that the guy who you think may have lost his fastball is actually really, really, really good at what he does. Let’s try to actually appreciate the masterpiece we’re given the fortune of watching.
When you are playing a team that is worse than you in every facet of the game you punt.A very likely outcome of punting there is... a 23 yard gain in field position. I'd rather have the chance to go for it on 4th down.To me, having the defense as a team strength weighs in favor of going for it on offense, not against.
Be that as it may, if going for it on 4th in a good situation to go for it is not on the table, fine. Don't piss away the 3rd and 4 attempt on a gamble that you catch the defense off guard. Fucking try to beat them.
If you go for it and don’t get it, the falcons need like 20 yards to get in field goal range. Even if you expect a touchback, that’s a difference of 28 yards (touchback on punt is still the 20). Thats a pretty significant difference, I think punting there is clearly the right choice. Maybe a draw wasn’t, but they’ve been working, and whether a play works because it catches the defense off guard doesn’t matter as long as it works. I’ve always hated the draws on like 3rd and 15 that they call from time to time, but draw on 3rd and 3 on the opening drive seems like a fine callA very likely outcome of punting there is... a 23 yard gain in field position. I'd rather have the chance to go for it on 4th down.To me, having the defense as a team strength weighs in favor of going for it on offense, not against.
Be that as it may, if going for it on 4th in a good situation to go for it is not on the table, fine. Don't piss away the 3rd and 4 attempt on a gamble that you catch the defense off guard. Fucking try to beat them.
Greater football minds than me have said that "Any possession that ends in a kick isn't bad". 4th and 3 from midfield on the first drive of the game screams punt. I really have a hard time seeing otherwise.When you are playing a team that is worse than you in every facet of the game you punt.
What you would gain by getting a first down, is far less valuable to you than what your inferior opponent gets from great field position.
the Patriots were up by 2 touchdowns, I’d say that’s not close. So if you think that’s BS, we can also just view the win probability which was 94.8% for NE after Mac was picked off. So, yeah, not close.Thank you for the cheap shot - cheap on multiple levels.
As to “never close” the score was 13-0 when Mac was picked off, right? A TD there would have made it a one score game, so I think “never close” is BS.
Plus haven’t the Pats been just about the best running team in the league for about 2 months? And without any RPO’s and with a non-running QB. Hasn’t Bolden been averaging 5.4 yards per carry? He’s had 4 games where he’s run wild. This could have been another of those games except it was his only carry. Didn’t need to use him as the 2 primary backs were killing it.the Patriots were up by 2 touchdowns, I’d say that’s not close. So if you think that’s BS, we can also just view the win probability which was 94.8% for NE after Mac was picked off. So, yeah, not close.
but the main point was: it’s probably worth appreciating how special this season, this coaching staff, and this group of players is before we over analyze blowout wins and make angry posts about the team not trying to win.
Field position is was a huge factor throughout a relatively low scoring game. So much so that the announcers were making a big deal out of it. Imagine if they had given up a fluke TD on the opening ATL possession. Looks to me like it was probably the right decision.Greater football minds than me have said that "Any possession that ends in a kick isn't bad". 4th and 3 from midfield on the first drive of the game screams punt. I really have a hard time seeing otherwise.
God damn man. Who fucking gives a shit? Why are you so obsessed with a punt in a game that the Pats dominated on both sides of the ball and they were never even within a million miles of losing the game?I don't think it is reasonable to argue that 1) this was an easy win that was not close and 2) had they turned it over on downs at the 50 yardline on the first possession it might have been the difference in the game.
I also don't think it is reasonable to say "well, they won, so all coaching decisions were right by definition."
I think one can question the extreme risk aversion of the some of the offensive playcalling while also appreicating how great this 5-game run has been.
Once they got to that 3rd and 4, I would like to have seen at least one play that was a straight up effort to convert that first rather than trying to do it by calling a play that was sure to fail if the defense read it correctly. I'd have been happier if they brought in Johnson and Onwenu and just pounded Harris or Stevenson if they were going to run.
But that's just me.
I will just note, before I leave this thread for good, that all of my apparently unacceptable comments here have been my opinion about something that happenned in the Patriots game. I thought that was the whole point of this forum!God damn man. Who fucking gives a shit? Why are you so obsessed with a punt in a game that the Pats dominated on both sides of the ball and they were never even within a million miles of losing the game?
The punt worked. Do you know how everyone in this thread knows but you? Because the Pats dominated the game on both sides of the ball and they were never even within a trillion miles of losing the game.
Aren’t virtually all plays sure to fail if the defense reads correctly?Once they got to that 3rd and 4, I would like to have seen at least one play that was a straight up effort to convert that first rather than trying to do it by calling a play that was sure to fail if the defense read it correctly.
But that's just me.
I specifically did not personalize it. I asked you why you were obsessed with a play that was completely inconsequential to the game.I will just note, before I leave this thread for good, that all of my apparently unacceptable comments here have been my opinion about something that happenned in the Patriots game. I thought that was the whole point of this forum!
Some people have disagreed with my take on it, which is fine.
But you and another poster have, for some reason needed to personalize it. I thought that was against the rules, but I guess not. Anyways, fuck off.
And Red Averages didn't hit you with any cheap shots and saying he did is manipulative and thin skinned. Did you run to the mods and report his post, too?Thank you for the cheap shot - cheap on multiple levels.
As to “never close” the score was 13-0 when Mac was picked off, right? A TD there would have made it a one score game, so I think “never close” is BS.
Potentially giving a team that has had no shot moving the ball at midfield and giving them a spark vs even putting them at their own 20 doesn’t sound even remotely a questionable decision. I know everyone wants their team to go for it on every 4th and short now but that’s not always the best decision.And Red Averages didn't hit you with any cheap shots and saying he did is manipulative and thin skinned. Did you run to the mods and report his post, too?
You are complaining about a decision in a game the Pats dominated from top to bottom. It is a really pedantic view of the game and it is literally not in line with what actually happened in the game. You can tell me to fuck off all you want, but it seems like you're doing a good job of doing that to yourself with this take.
Counterargument - the anemic Atlanta offense actually reduces the risk of not converting, which tips the scales even more in favor of going for it. Its not like getting the ball at midfield for one possession would suddenly give them playmakers.Potentially giving a team that has had no shot moving the ball at midfield and giving them a spark vs even putting them at their own 20 doesn’t sound even remotely a questionable decision. I know everyone wants their team to go for it on every 4th and short now but that’s not always the best decision.
Liverpool crushed Arsenal today 4-0.Potentially giving a team that has had no shot moving the ball at midfield and giving them a spark vs even putting them at their own 20 doesn’t sound even remotely a questionable decision. I know everyone wants their team to go for it on every 4th and short now but that’s not always the best decision.
Disagreements have gotten sharper on SOSH in the last year on stuff like this for sure. It used to be the same level of strident but with humor. I’ve had a few lately where I was in the minority on a thought about about a sports opinion and everyone is just sarcastic and rude without the humor that used to be the trademark here. Not significant enough to be a backwash issue and to avoid making this entirely a backwashy post I will talk a bit about the issue.I will just note, before I leave this thread for good, that all of my apparently unacceptable comments here have been my opinion about something that happenned in the Patriots game. I thought that was the whole point of this forum!
Some people have disagreed with my take on it, which is fine.
But you and another poster have, for some reason needed to personalize it. I thought that was against the rules, but I guess not. Anyways, fuck off.
Absolutely.I personally enjoy discussing individual plays and discussing whether it was the "correct" call. Granted, nobody on this forum has the same level of information that Bill and the rech of the coaching staff working with when these calls are made. There are obviously a number of factors that go into each play call, some of which we do not know until well after the game is over, others we find out years later, and others we never find out. I stand by my opinion that Bill made the correct call on the play in question; EJ stands by his. And it is worth the time to explore the reasons why we have these thoughts.
But this is a much more fun conversation than the discussion about the Falcons FG try fiasco (i.e., the illegal formation penalty) they are having over at the Sons of Deion Sanders board.
I think the argument though isn’t really about the play call; it’s about not going for it on 4th and 3 after the play call. But I’m with everyone else that I don’t want to give the Falcons some early momentum and the ball at midfield with an early stop like that. Make them earn it. Which is exactly how it played out with complementary football. I think the fact that it DID work out matters here. They pinned the Falcons with the punt; the Falcons went 3 and out; the Pats got it back in decent field position (would have been better if not for the penalty on the return); the Pats got points out of the drive. Now if the Falcons had moved the ball more, or if the punt hadn’t pinned them, or whatever else had happened maybe it would be correct to question the call. But it worked out exactly how BB drew it up. How can you question that?The problem is he kept referencing the play was bad cause of outcome. There is no way of knowing the draw play was a bad choice there. We have seen the Patriots use it to great effect a lot recently. And then topped it with the line about if the defense reads it right it is doomed play. Which is true of any play.
It might have been an interesting conversation but he killed a lot of it but choosing really bad defenses of his thinking.
Now If he was complaining of a 3rd and 7, 3rd and 12 draw play. Maybe everyone buys his Draw is a bad play period stance.
So maybe put more work into why the Draw was a bad play beyond “bad cause didn’t work” which is the vibe he is giving off so far in his arguments.
A draw on 3rd and 4 isn’t a give up play or bad play inherently. But his argument rests on the assumption is it’s inherently bad.
I think you might be responding to my post here? Of course it wouldn't be THE difference in the game. But we've all seen how momentum can change in football on the heels of a big play or drive. If the Falcons somehow score a TD on a short field for the first score of the game, none of us can possibly know how the rest of the game plays out. I'm fine with the decision to make them earn it there.I don't think it is reasonable to argue that 1) this was an easy win that was not close and 2) had they turned it over on downs at the 50 yardline on the first possession it might have been the difference in the game.
I think this is essentially it. Falcon's opening drive, make them go ~80 yards to get 7. Make some determinations as to what the Falcons will do to move the ball, how they line up, who is on the field, etc. We've heard again and again from BB that it is really hard to string together 8+ play drives to score and the opening drive against the Pat's D is a tall order. We saw it in the Cleveland game that after their opening drive score, the Pats adjusted and didn't allow another score the entire game. So, it this instance, punting was surely the correct call.I think you might be responding to my post here? Of course it wouldn't be THE difference in the game. But we've all seen how momentum can change in football on the heels of a big play or drive. If the Falcons somehow score a TD on a short field for the first score of the game, none of us can possibly know how the rest of the game plays out. I'm fine with the decision to make them earn it there.
Indeed. The Falcons gained 165 yards in the entire game. They averaged 3.17 yards per play, a ridiculous figure in today's NFL. This game was almost never in doubt, Atlanta couldn't go anywhere.I think this is essentially it. Falcon's opening drive, make them go ~80 yards to get 7. Make some determinations as to what the Falcons will do to move the ball, how they line up, who is on the field, etc. We've heard again and again from BB that it is really hard to string together 8+ play drives to score and the opening drive against the Pat's D is a tall order. We saw it in the Cleveland game that after their opening drive score, the Pats adjusted and didn't allow another score the entire game. So, it this instance, punting was surely the correct call.
Additionally, I don't see anyone take shots at other posters. Mentioning the BB fastball thread wasn't a shot at EJ, it was factually stating the initial question given context as to how this season has played out. I do agree the score was close when Mac threw the INT but the outcome, given how the Pats D was and has played/adjusted in game, was never really in doubt.
On the bolded: isn’t that a statistically generic statistic, that doesn’t take into account the specifics of the teams involved? (Yes the repetitiveness is intentional).I didn't like the third and four playcall or the punt decision; I still don't love them, but I think hindsight makes it look better.
Generally speaking:
- Running the ball is a lot less likely to gain you 4 yards than passing the ball (which is why you generally see teams pass on 3rd and 3+)
- Punting with a makeable fourth around midfield is statistically a poor decision
Furthermore, I didn't like the draw at the time because:
- The run game had been terrible so far (2 rushes for 2 yards)
- The pass game had been effective so far (2 completions for 10 yards plus a DPI where Mac had all day in the pocket)
In hindsight, it looks better because:
- The run game turned things around (25 carries for 135 yards after the first drive [also excluding Mac's kneeldowns late])
- The pass game was not very effective in the game - despite Mac's gaudy completion percentage, the Pats only had 7 passing first downs all game, plus 3 sacks and a pick
- The punt looks fine because the Falcons couldn't do anything offensively
I still don't love the draw but it's the sort of unusual playcall that looks great if you make it and looks dumb if you don't. I still don't love the punt but it's a reasonable albeit conservative decision for a team that has a great defense and a suspect offense.
This is all completely fair, I will just add 2 fairly minor points.I didn't like the third and four playcall or the punt decision; I still don't love them, but I think hindsight makes it look better.
Generally speaking:
- Running the ball is a lot less likely to gain you 4 yards than passing the ball (which is why you generally see teams pass on 3rd and 3+)
- Punting with a makeable fourth around midfield is statistically a poor decision
Furthermore, I didn't like the draw at the time because:
- The run game had been terrible so far (2 rushes for 2 yards)
- The pass game had been effective so far (2 completions for 10 yards plus a DPI where Mac had all day in the pocket)
In hindsight, it looks better because:
- The run game turned things around (25 carries for 135 yards after the first drive [also excluding Mac's kneeldowns late])
- The pass game was not very effective in the game - despite Mac's gaudy completion percentage, the Pats only had 7 passing first downs all game, plus 3 sacks and a pick
- The punt looks fine because the Falcons couldn't do anything offensively
I still don't love the draw but it's the sort of unusual playcall that looks great if you make it and looks dumb if you don't. I still don't love the punt but it's a reasonable albeit conservative decision for a team that has a great defense and a suspect offense.