MW12 - 2.7 billion reasons to watch

My buddy and I are both Barca and Spurs fans, but we disagree about which club is more exciting at the moment. He's excited about Xavi's potential to be a transformative manager along the lines of Pep. I'm more excited about watching Conte try to drag Tottenham's loser mentality up the mountain to glory.

I think there's interesting comparisons to be made between the relative strength of the squads and the potential of the managers. I think Barca have a slight edge in the squad based on the potential of young players to be molded into pieces Xavi can use. Of the current squad, the only established talent that I believe will be starters on the next championship side are MATS and FDJ (maybe Depay). There are plenty of young players that will potentially be in that side, but they don't have more than a season of high level play to fit into that category--Araujo, Garcia, Dest, Mingueza, Pedri, Gavi, and Fati.

At Spurs, I think that list includes Romero, Reguilon, Kane, Son, and maybe Tanguy. But after that, it gets slim in a hurry. Skipp and Emerson might be able to hang, and there's other pieces like Dele that might have a renaissance, but I think the squad has limited upside. That's not to say Conte can't be successful with them--I think they'll finish between 4-6 this season, but that this squad doesn't have a lot of league-winning caliber players at the moment.

On the managerial side, Conte is currently among the elite 5-10 managers in the world for sides with ambitions to win titles (Pep, Klopp, Tuchel, Nagelsmann, Simeone). Zidane, Flick, and Poch are just outside that group, and there's a number of other guys who probably deserve a shot with an elite squad too--Rodgers, Gasperini, Ten Haag, etc.

But Xavi is an unknown. As a player he was probably the smartest player and best reader of the game I've ever seen. His spatial awareness is unparalleled and if you saw him play it's obvious why his potential as a manager is tantalizing. That being said, this is a guy getting his first major gig under a ton of pressure. And if he is going to be truly transformational with tactics/style, it probably won't happen overnight.

I don’t see it as all that close. The only case for Xavi is that he’s played for the best manager and maybe can be him. It’s entirely a punt on hope and that’s fun but imo it’s way too hard a job for a novice. You could have written all of the above about Pep but these are exceptional events it’s hard to catch that lightning in a bottle twice.

Conte has consistently gotten it done. I don’t know why he chose to take on the Spurs project but if the question is which manager is likely to stabilize and elevate his squad it’s Conte by a large margin. Maybe Xavi is a savant and they’re still Barca so maybe they can now buy again but the case for Barca is basically “hope” while the case for Spurs is at least evidence driven

Bayern are a couple minutes away from losing to relegation battlers Augsburg. Didn't see that one coming.

I am on Team Farke, but Dean Smith to Norwich may be sneaky good. They do have one more win than Newcastle.

And the GW12 EPL match officials: Match officials for Matchweek 12 (premierleague.com)

teddykgb said:

I don’t see it as all that close. The only case for Xavi is that he’s played for the best manager and maybe can be him. It’s entirely a punt on hope and that’s fun but imo it’s way too hard a job for a novice. You could have written all of the above about Pep but these are exceptional events it’s hard to catch that lightning in a bottle twice.

Conte has consistently gotten it done. I don’t know why he chose to take on the Spurs project but if the question is which manager is likely to stabilize and elevate his squad it’s Conte by a large margin. Maybe Xavi is a savant and they’re still Barca so maybe they can now buy again but the case for Barca is basically “hope” while the case for Spurs is at least evidence driven

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I agree completely about Conte vs. Xavi but I think the talent is pretty lopsided in the other direction.

Gavi, Pedri, Fati, FDJ is a tremendous young core to build around and some of the other attackers like Depay or Dembele (if he resigns) should still be high level contributors if put into a good system. Barcelona really just needs to buy some athletic defenders, and maybe a new DM, who can play in space and afford the rest of the team the freedom to really play.

The rebuilding job at Spurs is a lot tougher because there's a lot less young talent overall and really no core of younger players that are clearly high enough level to envision building a new team around them, so its less clear how to proceed. You can rebuild around Kane and Son, but by the time the rest of the team is up to scratch, those guys are probably no longer elite contributors. Or you can try to sell Kane next summer but then all you really have in place as anchors of a new team are a 30-year-old Son, Romero, and maybe a couple other guys if they come good.

Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:

I agree completely about Conte vs. Xavi but I think the talent is pretty lopsided in the other direction.

Gavi, Pedri, Fati, FDJ is a tremendous young core to build around and some of the other attackers like Depay or Dembele (if he resigns) should still be high level contributors if put into a good system. Barcelona really just needs to buy some athletic defenders, and maybe a new DM, who can play in space and afford the rest of the team the freedom to really play.

The rebuilding job at Spurs is a lot tougher because there's a lot less young talent overall and really no core of younger players that are clearly high enough level to envision building a new team around them, so its less clear how to proceed. You can rebuild around Kane and Son, but by the time the rest of the team is up to scratch, those guys are probably no longer elite contributors. Or you can try to sell Kane next summer but then all you really have in place as anchors of a new team are a 30-year-old Son, Romero, and maybe a couple other guys if they come good.

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Maybe FDJ and Fati have proven enough to be part of the next great Barca side but Gavi and Pedri have a lot to prove. Also there’s no room for a DM if FDJ, Gavi and Pedri are all in a midfield. Presumably FDJ is supposed to replace Busquets but I don’t know if he can play that role or needs to be more forward. To be honest I’m not convinced Depay leads the line for a top 5-7 in the world team either. I think there are paths where this all breaks Barcas way but an awful lot of things need to go right with a number of players.

I don’t think Contes system requires stars everywhere. I personally think Kane saga isn’t over and I bet Spurs fleece City for him and buy Vlahovic. I think Son and Vlahovic can be a strong attack in Contes system and he just needs to strengthen the spine in the summer. In truth the Premier league is the Super League and Spurs may be able to outspend Barca now and in the future.

teddykgb said:

Maybe FDJ and Fati have proven enough to be part of the next great Barca side but Gavi and Pedri have a lot to prove. Also there’s no room for a DM if FDJ, Gavi and Pedri are all in a midfield. Presumably FDJ is supposed to replace Busquets but I don’t know if he can play that role or needs to be more forward. To be honest I’m not convinced Depay leads the line for a top 5-7 in the world team either. I think there are paths where this all breaks Barcas way but an awful lot of things need to go right with a number of players.

I don’t think Contes system requires stars everywhere. I personally think Kane saga isn’t over and I bet Spurs fleece City for him and buy Vlahovic. I think Son and Vlahovic can be a strong attack in Contes system and he just needs to strengthen the spine in the summer. In truth the Premier league is the Super League and Spurs may be able to outspend Barca now and in the future.

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Pedri was legitimately top drawer last year in La Liga and one of the standout players (on any side) of the Euros at 18. It might go wrong for him, especially if he struggles more with health concerns, but I wouldn't undersell him.

Barcelona obviously have a massive debt problem and its a little unclear to me how long it will take to dig out from that. But they also have the highest revenues of any club in football and one of the most valuable brands in a sporting sense. Even if those revenues take a hit in the post-Messi era for various reasons, they are going to remain a financial juggernaut and, along with Real Madrid, still the dream club for most South American or Iberian players. The Premier League may be a quasi Super League but there is no way Spurs will be able to outspend a club like Barca, which in 2018-19 and 2019-20 (last years for which such numbers are available) averaged revenues 300m euros higher than Spurs.

I have no idea what will happen with Kane but I think Vlahovic's agents will wait for the Haaland sweepstakes to conclude next summer then choose a destination from the many other clubs who budgeted lots of funds for a striker that summer. That could be Spurs but I expect lots of other big clubs will be in the mix as well - depending on where Haaland goes, that could include Real, Atleti, PSG, City, Juventus, Arsenal, maybe Liverpool if they move on from Firmino.

I’m not sure how long it took my Saturday Morning brain to process that Leicester aren’t playing Watford.

Pulisic comes off the bench to bury one for Chelsea against Leicester.

Posted about it in the USMNT thread, but Pulisic as a false nine is interesting.

SocrManiac said:

I’m not sure how long it took my Saturday Morning brain to process that Leicester aren’t playing Watford.

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It appears Leicester never made the adjustment

Nice to see that Eze has recovered enough to take a spot on the bench for Palace today.

Benteke scores again!

Hmmm … PEN given, missed but scored on the rebound , called back (encroachment on both sides) , retaken , missed

And McTominey should have seen red and doesn’t even get a yellow.

Edit :So does Sarr get credit for two missed penalties in FPL? ( just checked .. nope)

Burnley already equalizes and VAR confirms, but that looked a lot worse than the disallowed goal in the Jamaica game the other night.

Sarr’s having a nightmare of a game … missed two PENs , a poor pass for a tap,in and a botched giveaway attempt in the box

And Watford take a very deserved lead!

If Palace could defend set pieces, they'd be the best team in the world. They can't, so they're losing to Burnley 2-1 now.

I just went to put money on Palace to come back from 2-1 down, and saw that the odds were much worse than I expected them to be for that. My feed is about 30 seconds behind real-time, as Benteke just earned his brace.

Insanity at Turf Moor. Marc Guehi with his first goal in a Palace shirt (and apparently first senior goal at all). 2-3 Palace.

Watford score again (Sarr atones)

ManU have been absolutely dreadful

Andy Serkis has about 45 mins to save his job methinks.

I think there are going to be 2.7 billion goals in this Burnley-Palace game. 3-3.

Maguire sent off. What an absolute muppet.

cromulence said:

Posted about it in the USMNT thread, but Pulisic as a false nine is interesting.

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It’s a good fit for his skills I think.

candylandriots said:

Insanity at Turf Moor. Marc Guehi with his first goal in a Palace shirt (and apparently first senior goal at all). 2-3 Palace.

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Had a feeling this was going to be a good one. Without anyone noticing Burnley have put it together.

CodPiece XL said:

Andy Serkis has about 45 mins to save his job methinks.

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I literally LOLd

Van der Beek looks lively.

Mighty Joe Young said:

And Watford take a very deserved lead!

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Kudos to Ranieri. He’s found a better team in there.

Gotta be it for Ole, right?

Same thing Watford did to Everton - ripped them to shreds at the end

Catching some of the NWSL Championship Game before Liverpool-Arsenal. Could they really not have this game kick off at a better time than 9:10 AM Pacific Time?

Ramsdale lucky that rebound didn’t come back to haunt him there.

Arteta and Klopp have to be separated, both booked.

Love a good manager squabble.

Great save.

TAA put that one in the perfect spot, Mane with the header.

Amazing FK by TA-A.

Will be overlooked on the highlight reel, but Fabinho's tackle on the break was beyond critical.

Ole’s walking papers may be issued today, as they just mentioned on the broadcast:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/manchester-united-board-call-emergency-meeting-to-discuss-ole-gunnar-solskjaers-future-as-manager-gr0j9v5ht

HowBoutDemSox said:

Ole’s walking papers may be issued today, as they just mentioned on the broadcast:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/manchester-united-board-call-emergency-meeting-to-discuss-ole-gunnar-solskjaers-future-as-manager-gr0j9v5ht

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With a blank check potentially being handed to Zidane.

Wonder if they considered Rodgers at all?

Very entertaining high intensity game. Liverpool are deservedly ahead but Arsenal are still in this and matching their intensity. Liverpool are in a different gear than in some of their recent matches.

Does Zidane have more tactical acumen that I remember, or is that Man United continuing their “no tactics, just vibes” approach to management but at a hopefully higher level?

Bad turnover leads to an open net for Jota. 2-0.