Patriots-Bills Discussion

54thMA · Dec 20, 2021

Everything is in front of them, right there for the taking; win Sunday and you clinch the AFC East, win the next two and you're locked in at the #2 seed, if you get some help from Pittsburg, the Bengals or the Broncos, you could grab the #1 seed.

Lose and they are in deep trouble, they'd need to win out as head to head is even, division record is next and the Patriots have two losses in the division, I think the Bills only have one, so that's that, they'd have to go on the road three times as a WC team.

We'll see which team shows up, the one that started 2-4 and returned to that team Saturday vs the Colts, or the one that ripped off seven wins in a row.

That loss Saturday night has been bothering me for two days, a winnable game that they blew, now their work is cut out for them.

I went from not really being worried about this game to extremely concerned.

Cotillion · Dec 20, 2021

Pats might need to start using more ways to punish teams that are starting to run blitz through the holes left by the pulling guards in a lot of the misdirection plays the Pats like to run.

In addition to just getting their focus back to where it needs to be. The Indy game was inexcusable bad focus for long stretches.

mikeford · Dec 20, 2021

Dare I call this a must-win game?

Pats are probably destined for the 5 seed if they lose.

joe dokes · Dec 20, 2021

54thMA said:
Everything is in front of them, right there for the taking; win Sunday and you clinch the AFC East, win the next two and you're locked in at the #2 seed, if you get some help from Pittsburg, the Bengals or the Broncos, you could grab the #1 seed.

Lose and they are in deep trouble, they'd need to win out as head to head is even, division record is next and the Patriots have two losses in the division, I think the Bills only have one, so that's that, they'd have to go on the road three times as a WC team.

We'll see which team shows up, the one that started 2-4 and returned to that team Saturday vs the Colts, or the one that ripped off seven wins in a row.

That loss Saturday night has been bothering me for two days, a winnable game that they blew, now their work is cut out for them.

I went from not really being worried about this game to extremely concerned.

Saturday left me with the opposite feeling.
I think what ultimately sunk the Patriots Saturday were the kinds of things that are much, much closer to one-offs than systemic issues. Onwenu was a star of the game just 2 weeks ago; Brandon King is a core special teamer who doesn't usually fuck up like that; Meyers had what might be his first bad game. Jones had a tough night, but at the same time, he was making plays til the end. It sucked, and there were "inexcusable" (what ever that means coming from the internet) errors, but I just dont see those errors as an indication of anything terribly worrisome. And I think it's unlikely that they make *that* many of them in the same game again.
Buffalo is a good team, and might win. And this Patriot team might not have a big margin for error against good teams. But Saturday wasnt some harbinger or blueprint or whatever the Colts want people to think it is.

E5 Yaz · Dec 20, 2021

mikeford said:
Pats are probably destined for the 5 seed if they lose.

What's interesting about that is, as it stands, the 5-seed could very well its first round game at the AFC North winner, and none of those teams are all that overwhelming

tims4wins · Dec 20, 2021

joe dokes said:
Saturday left me with the opposite feeling.
I think what ultimately sunk the Patriots Saturday were the kinds of things that are much, much closer to one-offs than systemic issues. Onwenu was a star of the game just 2 weeks ago; Brandon King is a core special teamer who doesn't usually fuck up like that; Meyers had what might be his first bad game. Jones had a tough night, but at the same time, he was making plays til the end. It sucked, and there were "inexcusable" (what ever that means coming from the internet) errors, but I just dont see those errors as an indication of anything terribly worrisome. And I think it's unlikely that they make *that* many of them in the same game again.
Buffalo is a good team, and might win. And this Patriot team might not have a big margin for error against good teams. But Saturday wasnt some harbinger or blueprint or whatever the Colts want people to think it is.

Agree with 95-99% of this, with the exception being special teams. The ST sucked in the first 4-6 weeks; stabilized very nicely for a while; and sucked Saturday night, plus the Harry muff from the Buffalo game. In addition to having their 3rd (!!) blocked punt of the season (note: 3 total blocked punts from 2010-2020), they had the dumb offsides on the FG miss, and Gunner also fumbled the first punt. They won't win a single playoff game if the special teams play like that, and it is hard to call it just a one-off when there has been a lot of it this year. Maybe they just need to refocus, but if there is one glaring concern after Saturday, it's that area.

mikeford · Dec 20, 2021

E5 Yaz said:
What's interesting about that is, as it stands, the 5-seed could very well its first round game at the AFC North winner, and none of those teams are all that overwhelming

That's true but I think that team ends up being Baltimore and I would rather just never play that team in the playoffs again if it can be helped.

tims4wins · Dec 20, 2021

mikeford said:
That's true but I think that team ends up being Baltimore and I would rather just never play that team in the playoffs again if it can be helped.

@ Cincy
vs. Rams
vs. Steelers

Tough sledding.

E5 Yaz · Dec 20, 2021

tims4wins said:
Agree with 95-99% of this, with the exception being special teams. The ST sucked in the first 4-6 weeks; stabilized very nicely for a while; and sucked Saturday night, plus the Harry muff from the Buffalo game. In addition to having their 3rd (!!) blocked punt of the season (note: 3 total blocked punts from 2010-2020), they had the dumb offsides on the FG miss, and Gunner also fumbled the first punt. They won't win a single playoff game if the special teams play like that, and it is hard to call it just a one-off when there has been a lot of it this year. Maybe they just need to refocus, but if there is one glaring concern after Saturday, it's that area.

I've been thinking about the blocked punts. Are the blocks all coming from the same sort of rush, or is it some kind of scheme breakdown? The Colts player appeared untouched on his way through

joe dokes · Dec 20, 2021

tims4wins said:
Agree with 95-99% of this, with the exception being special teams. The ST sucked in the first 4-6 weeks; stabilized very nicely for a while; and sucked Saturday night, plus the Harry muff from the Buffalo game. In addition to having their 3rd (!!) blocked punt of the season (note: 3 total blocked punts from 2010-2020), they had the dumb offsides on the FG miss, and Gunner also fumbled the first punt. They won't win a single playoff game if the special teams play like that, and it is hard to call it just a one-off when there has been a lot of it this year. Maybe they just need to refocus, but if there is one glaring concern after Saturday, it's that area.

Fair enough on the overall ST play. I didn't intentionally leave out the blocked punt, I think I just sort of....blocked it out. I still dont see King making that offside mistake again. Others better at this might know, but was there a commonality between the 3 blocked punts?

tims4wins · Dec 20, 2021

Reiss had this about the blocked punt (#7)

Mystic Merlin · Dec 20, 2021

E5 Yaz said:
I've been thinking about the blocked punts. Are the blocks all coming from the same sort of rush, or is it some kind of scheme breakdown? The Colts player appeared untouched on his way through

I think the Dallas punt block was similar, in that the free rusher came from an inside gap, though on the opposite side.

View: https://youtu.be/EwmZVPRsG-k

The Saints rusher beat the far blocker on the left side, so not as similar.

https://www.neworleanssaints.com/video/andrew-dowell-punt-block-saints-patriots-week-3-highlights-2021-nfl

Given that different players made mistakes in all three scenarios, it’s hard to say what the root cause was, but the fact that the same kind of breakdown occurred in both the Dallas and IND examples potentially suggests a common cause in those two cases. Since nobody tried to block the free rusher (it did not seem to me that a blocker flat out missed the block after correctly diagnosing the assignment presnap), I think these are both attributable to mental errors, ie, the interior protection not being on the same page about their blocking assignments.

EDIT - I can’t find a clean replay from behind the punter, so happy to be corrected on my recollection of the Colts punt block.

Pandemonium67 · Dec 20, 2021

Reiss mentions the Rham fumble recovered by Jonnu, but Rham also fumbled earlier on the play where he ran into Wynn. The announcers didn't see it. Rham fell on it himself.

It's an issue he needs to work on.

jezza1918 · Dec 20, 2021

Pandemonium67 said:
Reiss mentions the Rham fumble recovered by Jonnu, but Rham also fumbled earlier on the play where he ran into Wynn. The announcers didn't see it. Rham fell on it himself.

It's an issue he needs to work on.

Are you talking about this play? I'm not seeing it
View: https://twitter.com/PFF/status/1472383697303310340?s=20

joe dokes · Dec 20, 2021

tims4wins said:
Reiss had this about the blocked punt (#7)

Interesting about Bentley, Munson and their replacements.. Bentley's absence felt in more than just the run defense.

E5 Yaz · Dec 20, 2021

joe dokes said:
Bentley's absence felt in more than just the run defense.

Not having Bentley and Duggar really showed up on the coffin-nailer

Pandemonium67 · Dec 20, 2021

jezza1918 said:
Are you talking about this play? I'm not seeing it
View: https://twitter.com/PFF/status/1472383697303310340?s=20

That is indeed the play and I don't see the fumble that I thought I saw Saturday. My bad!

But what a nice tackle by Wynn.

jezza1918 · Dec 20, 2021

Pandemonium67 said:
That is indeed the play and I don't see the fumble that I thought I saw Saturday. My bad!

But what a nice tackle by Wynn.

All good. I feel like I've seen elsewhere 2 fumbles by Stevenson? But not how the box score is reading. That said, it's still an issue and I really don't like the chances Sunday without Harris back out there. I think Bill and JMcD are would love to actually double down against the Bills and run the ball a ton...but this time with the threat of a passing attack given the weather looks fine.

54thMA · Dec 20, 2021

The "missing Bentley" comments are interesting; he was getting killed here last year for being a dinosaur in todays NFL, ie, a big, slow linebacker, now all of a sudden he's a vital part of the defense.

It's funny how players improve/get better from year to year.

Coaching is so vital in the NFL, probably more so than any other professional sport.

tims4wins · Dec 20, 2021

The Bills are coming into this game with EVERYTHING. Just get that sense. I didn't feel this way heading into the 2010 playoff game against the Jets, but in retrospect, this feels like a very similar vibe. Pats absolutely have to match that intensity and want-to. If possible even turn Buffalo's pent-up anger against them. The Pats were not very well prepared for the fight they were getting into on Saturday night. They damn well better be ready on Sunday, because you know the Bills will.

8slim · Dec 20, 2021

tims4wins said:
The Bills are coming into this game with EVERYTHING. Just get that sense. I didn't feel this way heading into the 2010 playoff game against the Jets, but in retrospect, this feels like a very similar vibe. Pats absolutely have to match that intensity and want-to. If possible even turn Buffalo's pent-up anger against them. The Pats were not very well prepared for the fight they were getting into on Saturday night. They damn well better be ready on Sunday, because you know the Bills will.

Being at home should help a ton. The crowd is going to amped, and I expect the Pats to feed off of that considerably.

RG33 · Dec 20, 2021

54thMA said:
The "missing Bentley" comments are interesting; he was getting killed here last year for being a dinosaur in todays NFL, ie, a big, slow linebacker, now all of a sudden he's a vital part of the defense.

It's funny how players improve/get better from year to year.

Coaching is so vital in the NFL, probably more so than any other professional sport.

Yep.

I’m looking forward to Hightower making a game-saving play in the AFCCG and everyone remembering how many big plays he has made for this team the last 7 years.

DeadlySplitter · Dec 20, 2021

Mac and Slater admitting they practiced like crap stood out to me. It's December, or when the real NFL season begins. Dumb speculation, but wonder if having a bye in December screwed them up.

54thMA · Dec 20, 2021

RG33 said:
Yep.

I’m looking forward to Hightower making a game-saving play in the AFCCG and everyone remembering how many big plays he has made for this team the last 7 years.

But he whiffed on a tackle, he needs to be put out to pasture.

Justthetippett · Dec 20, 2021

DeadlySplitter said:
Mac and Slater admitting they practiced like crap stood out to me. It's December, or when the real NFL season begins. Dumb speculation, but wonder if having a bye in December screwed them up.

I think it threw them off, for sure. They only regained themselves late in the third quarter. But 14 straight wins for a SB was always a stretch. No team in the league has been anywhere close to that good for that long this year. Six or seven weeks seems the most anyone can string together.

cshea · Dec 20, 2021

Bourne, Lange and Perkins in the protocol per Reiss. If faxed, they could return for Sunday.

View: https://twitter.com/mikereiss/status/1473056666535055370?s=21

jsinger121 · Dec 20, 2021

Bourne is the only one on that list that matters. The others are nobodies.

Nator · Dec 20, 2021

Oh shit. Gonna have Slater and Olszewski running patterns at this point. I hope Bourne can get back. Not sure where Agholor and Harry are, but fingers crossed.

Ralphwiggum · Dec 20, 2021

Under the current protocol this means those guys either have symptoms or are not vaccinated right? No longer testing vacced with no symptoms? Gotta get everyone to get that shot.

Zedia · Dec 20, 2021

Yeah, bad week for Bourne to be on that list. Kristian Wilkerson will probably get called up with Agholor and Harry banged up.

Isaiah Zuber appears to be a street FA at the moment…

Zedia · Dec 20, 2021

Ralphwiggum said:
Under the current protocol this means those guys either have symptoms or are not vaccinated right? No longer testing vacced with no symptoms? Gotta get everyone to get that shot.

Not sure what‘s up with that, Kelce just tested positive and according the Schefter, he’s vaxxed. edit - yes, or they have symptoms.

Ralphwiggum · Dec 20, 2021

Looks like there is still “targeted” testing of some vaccinated players who are asymptomatic.

https://www.nfl.com/news/new-covid-19-protocol-to-feature-targeted-testing-of-fully-vaccinated-players-st

dynomite · Dec 20, 2021

jsinger121 said:
Bourne is the only one on that list that matters. The others are nobodies.

for now, perhaps. But given the progression on other teams, and the number of players already impacted, it seems incredibly likely more are to follow. Hopefully not.!

Beomoose · Dec 20, 2021

jsinger121 said:
Bourne is the only one on that list that matters. The others are nobodies.

Yeah. But we're now on high alert for a WFT-style outbreak. If they have the new variant, half the team could be on the list by the end of the week.

BaseballJones · Dec 21, 2021

So with the WR situation in major flux, what's next?

Harry - questionable (concussion)
Agholor - questionable (concussion)
Bourne - Covid protocol
- - -
Meyers
Gunner
Slater - haha
Tre Nixon - PS
Kristian Wilkerson - PS

I mean, that's THIN at WR. I actually think Wilkerson is decent. But this would be twice they'd play the Bills with Buffalo missing their all-world CB (White), and the Pats not really being able to take advantage of it.

I am worried about Harry - his absence would be big in the run game. I am optimistic on Agholor. He didn't seem tooooo bad on Saturday. Bourne seems like he's asymptomatic and hopefully will be cleared for the game. But if those three guys are out, man, that hampers the offense considerably.

That said, they beat the Bills throwing just three passes last time so who knows. I don't know if Buffalo has suddenly gotten better at stopping the run in the past week and a half. After giving up tons of yards while stacking 10 guys in the box on nearly every play against the Pats, they proceeded to give up 151 rushing yards to Carolina on just 29 attempts (5.2 y/a). So this is still a struggle for them, obviously.

The Pats hopefully can still run the ball well and then throw off play action to the TEs and Meyers.

DJnVa · Dec 21, 2021

tims4wins said:
They damn well better be ready on Sunday, because you know the Bills will.

Why do we KNOW the Bills will be ready but are unsure of the Patriots?

Saints Rest · Dec 21, 2021

BaseballJones said:
So with the WR situation in major flux, what's next?

Harry - questionable (concussion)
Agholor - questionable (concussion)
Bourne - Covid protocol
- - -
Meyers
Gunner
Slater - haha
Tre Nixon - PS
Kristian Wilkerson - PS

I mean, that's THIN at WR. I actually think Wilkerson is decent. But this would be twice they'd play the Bills with Buffalo missing their all-world CB (White), and the Pats not really being able to take advantage of it.

I am worried about Harry - his absence would be big in the run game. I am optimistic on Agholor. He didn't seem tooooo bad on Saturday. Bourne seems like he's asymptomatic and hopefully will be cleared for the game. But if those three guys are out, man, that hampers the offense considerably.

That said, they beat the Bills throwing just three passes last time so who knows. I don't know if Buffalo has suddenly gotten better at stopping the run in the past week and a half. After giving up tons of yards while stacking 10 guys in the box on nearly every play against the Pats, they proceeded to give up 151 rushing yards to Carolina on just 29 attempts (5.2 y/a). So this is still a struggle for them, obviously.

The Pats hopefully can still run the ball well and then throw off play action to the TEs and Meyers.

Why do I think that Troy Brown would be more useful than anyone listed after Meyers?

tims4wins · Dec 21, 2021

DJnVa said:
Why do we KNOW the Bills will be ready but are unsure of the Patriots?

They are seething from the last loss and super hungry. I expect the Patriots to also come out pissed off after the Indy loss. But I wasn't really talking about being "ready" in terms of being prepared - I absolutely know the Patriots will be prepared from a game plan perspective, and focus perspective. I meant ready more from the angle that the game is likely to be very emotional and physical and they need to be able to match Buffalo on both levels. Does that make more sense?

tims4wins · Dec 21, 2021

You hate to see it. This means he is out, right?

View: https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1473402017016160256

SMU_Sox · Dec 21, 2021

tims4wins said:
You hate to see it. This means he is out, right?

View: https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1473402017016160256

Out for 10 days. He will not be playing vs the Patriots.

jsinger121 · Dec 21, 2021

SMU_Sox said:
Out for 10 days. He will not be playing vs the Patriots.

Yup. That’s a big one. He had the ability to create a ton of damage over the middle. He’s a big loss.

Marciano490 · Dec 21, 2021

How do we know Beasley wasn’t vaccinated?

m0ckduck · Dec 21, 2021

Marciano490 said:
How do we know Beasley wasn’t vaccinated?

Because Cole Beasley doesn’t understand probability, and had been pretty outspoken as of Oct 4: https://www.sportingnews.com/us/amp/nfl/news/cole-beasley-vaccine-tweets-nfl-covid-rules-bills/104v6uqz6z2zm1awjbmbvojjq3

It would be a striking u-turn if he’d quietly gotten vaccinated after making all those comments.

edit: representative Beasley tweet on the subject:

Everyone gives me the 98 percent of people who are vaccinated don’t get covid again. The odds of me getting in the NFL and playing for 10 years are lower than that and I’m here.

NortheasternPJ · Dec 21, 2021

s

SMU_Sox said:
Out for 10 days. He will not be playing vs the Patriots.

That’s a shame. Maybe he can hang out with Kyrie.

mwonow · Dec 21, 2021

SMU_Sox said:
Out for 10 days. He will not be playing vs the Patriots.

Maybe BB's superpowers extend beyond getting the Pats 100% vaxxed, to keeping rivals from getting jabs...

McBride11 · Dec 21, 2021

m0ckduck said:
Because Cole Beasley doesn’t understand probability, and had been pretty outspoken as of Oct 4: https://www.sportingnews.com/us/amp/nfl/news/cole-beasley-vaccine-tweets-nfl-covid-rules-bills/104v6uqz6z2zm1awjbmbvojjq3

It would be a striking u-turn if he’d quietly gotten vaccinated after making all those comments.

edit: representative Beasley tweet on the subject:

Sarcasm detector malfunction

8slim · Dec 21, 2021

Saints Rest said:
Why do I think that Troy Brown would be more useful than anyone listed after Meyers?

I found myself wondering today if Edelman has one game left in him.

P'tucket rhymes with... · Dec 21, 2021

8slim said:
I found myself wondering today if Edelman has one game left in him.

If he does, he's filling in for Mike Evans, not Agholor or Harry.

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