Red Sox in season discussion

nvalvo · Apr 7, 2022

If I had to judge, the main reason for Franchy hostility is that he was the underwhelming perceived centerpiece of the return for a popular traded player. And that fit the "Bloom will run the Red Sox like the Rays" narrative which was really churning at that moment. (And so far, it looks like the Royals won that trade, with Benintendi already producing 2.4 rWAR for them and having another year pre-FA. We'll see if Cordero, Winckowski, and all the rest of them can beat that.)

But if we're being honest with ourselves, this is America. It would be weird if there weren't any racial animus in the subtext of a sports discussion. That said, I genuinely think there's considerably less of that sort of thing on SOSH than in most sports conversations — especially around Boston sports, where a bunch of the media has these extremely creepy raced and classed expectations about which players will be beloved by the fanbase (i.e. white dudes with blue collar affect). Perhaps ironically, I don't think actually think those expectations really reflect the actual views of actual Boston sports fans, at least not the ones I know.

It seems like Boston sports fans' actual favorite players are considerably more diverse than WEEI's or a few of the beat writers' assessments of who those guys would be. Like, sure, Gronkowski was beloved, but so was Vince Wilfork. Pedroia was beloved, but so was Betts. Papelbon was beloved, but so was Uehara.

chawson said:
Do you think the difference is lost on me? Why don’t you ask the poster who brought up Cordero what’s so strikingly similar that he needed be invoked in reply to a post about Micker Adolfo.

Cordero and Micker Adolfo are pretty similar in baseball terms. They are toolsy, post-prospect outfielders who have shown flashes of high-end potential but struggled to get consistent results perhaps because of all the weird injuries they've suffered. Bringing in Adolfo would be the same kind of gamble as bringing in Cordero, or for that matter, bringing in Christian Arroyo.

Petagine in a Bottle · Apr 7, 2022

https://theathletic.com/news/xander-bogaerts-says-despite-red-sox-contract-offer-extension-wont-happen-this-season/iNnH6yW2ihPH/

Bogaerts turns down extension, not open to discussing during the season.

Rovin Romine · Apr 7, 2022

chawson said:
Nope. Not what I said. I said there was a major difference in how the fan base has received Franchy Cordero vs. recent players with similar high-K% profiles like Dalbec, Chavis, Duran and Shaw.

Chawson.

I am asking you about the entirety of what you wrote, not a sanitized portion* of it:

chawson said:
True. I think it’s irritating whenever half the fanbase writes off a free swinging power hitter with a funny name, as they did as soon as we acquired him, yet shows endless patience for guys with similar hitting profiles like Dalbec, Duran, Chavis or even Travis Shaw (who I’m stunned is still in the league, let alone on our team).

If I had to guess, I'd say this arises from how your 2021 predictions for Franchy Cordero were received here, and possibly from Franchy's actual performance on the field, which did not vindicate your predictions.

It is disappointing you chose to cast your response in writing the majority of the posters here can't judge on-field performance, that our reaction to similar players' performance is solely based on how a player's name sounds, i.e., their ethnicity. i.e., because we're racist.

The better tack would have been to say, "Shoot. I was frustrated. No, I don't think everyone who disagrees with my statistical projections on Franchy is a racist."

But whatever. Now we all know something about you.

BringBackMo said:
No one asked my opinion

But it's always welcome.

BringBackMo said:
. . .there are fans out there who will sometimes exhibit more patience with white players as they develop than they do with players of color--and I think he's absolutely correct.

I would most certainly agree racism is still with us as a society and specifically manifests in this way. I'm also happy to consider any latent tendencies I may have. But I honestly don't think that's very relevant here. I would like Cordero to succeed; in fact, I have trouble imagining most people rooting for Betts, Xander, JBJ, Devers, Vazquez, et al. would also be hoping for Cordero, one of our few viable OFs at the time, to fail. But maybe that says something about me.

I think the attempt to clothe a personal disappointment in an important social issue is exceptionally problematic. Also, few enjoy being smeared with the racist brush in any context, but certainly not in an argument over pet theories on exit velocity.

*This is what we call a Motte-and-Bailey fallacy. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motte-and-bailey_fallacy

Max Power · Apr 7, 2022

chawson said:
Do you think the difference is lost on me? Why don’t you ask the poster who brought up Cordero what’s so strikingly similar that he needed be invoked in reply to a post about Micker Adolfo.

You could just ask. They're both big power outfielders who strike out a ton and have put up big numbers in the minors, but nothing in the majors. One is a righty and the other is a lefty, which is why I said you'd be trading for the right handed version of what the Red Sox already have.

chawson · Apr 7, 2022

Rovin Romine said:
Chawson.

I am asking you about the entirety of what you wrote, not a sanitized portion* of it:

If I had to guess, I'd say this arises from how your 2021 predictions for Franchy Cordero were received here, and possibly from Franchy's actual performance on the field, which did not vindicate your predictions.

It is disappointing you chose to cast your response in writing the majority of the posters here can't judge on-field performance, that our reaction to similar players' performance is solely based on how a player's name sounds, i.e., their ethnicity. i.e., because we're racist.

The better tack would have been to say, "Shoot. I was frustrated. No, I don't think everyone who disagrees with my statistical projections on Franchy is a racist."

But whatever. Now we all know something about you.

But it's always welcome.

I would most certainly agree racism is still with us as a society and specifically manifests in this way. I'm also happy to consider any latent tendencies I may have. But I honestly don't think that's very relevant here. I would like Cordero to succeed; in fact, I have trouble imagining most people rooting for Betts, Xander, JBJ, Devers, Vazquez, et al. would also be hoping for Cordero, one of our few viable OFs at the time, to fail. But maybe that says something about me.

I think the attempt to clothe a personal disappointment in an important social issue is exceptionally problematic. Also, few enjoy being smeared with the racist brush in any context, but certainly not in an argument over pet theories on exit velocity.

*This is what we call a Motte-and-Bailey fallacy. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motte-and-bailey_fallacy

I think you’re making a few pretty wild leaps here and your hackles are unreasonably up, but I’m happy to take it to PMs if you like.

You’re correct in pointing out that I’ve been a staunch Cordero defender. And my response to that is that I recognize in myself that it’s partly because I have sensed that the Red Sox fan base has not given him a fair shake from the day he was acquired, when they immediately derided him as another Wily Mo Pena.

One thing I’ll point out is that I consistently said “fan base” — not posters here. But also, you have to admit that there’s a disparity between how many hits you get on a SOSH (or twitter) search for “wily mo pena + franchy cordero” (and variations) compared to how many you get for “wily mo pena + dalbec/duran/chavis”.

Rovin Romine · Apr 7, 2022

chawson said:
I think you’re making a few pretty wild leaps here and your hackles are unreasonably up, but I’m happy to take it to PMs if you like.

No thanks. You started this publicly, you can conclude it publicly in whatever way you think is wise.

chawson said:
One thing I’ll point out is that I consistently said “fan base” — not posters here. But also, you have to admit that there’s a disparity between how many hits you get on a SOSH (or twitter) search for “wily mo pena + franchy cordero” (and variations) compared to how many you get for “wily mo pena + dalbec/duran/chavis”.

Again, with the motte-and-bailey. You wrote that we, on this board, had contempt for Francy were rooting against him.

chawson said:
. . .the pessimism — and like, contempt — for him on this board is way overblown. He seems like a guy we should be rooting for, and the sort that other smart teams find all the time.

So. Where are you going with this? Up to you.

Lose Remerswaal · Apr 7, 2022

chawson said:
Says the guy who posts 99 percent snark and ignores PMs.

He returns my PMs. More than 3 of the last 20 I have sent to him, which is what Franchy hit last time he was in the Bigs. He's a AAAA guy, that's why he was available and why he will always be available

joe dokes · Apr 7, 2022

chawson said:
I don’t think he’s a lock to make it, but the pessimism — and like, contempt — for him on this board is way overblown. He seems like a guy we should be rooting for, and the sort that other smart teams find all the time.

Pessimism and contempt aren't the same thing. They aren't in the same family or the same area code. I dont think anyone relevant anywhere relevant isn't "rooting for him." Nor do I think anyone is suggesting that Sam Horn's name be removed from the door.

chawson · Apr 7, 2022

Rovin Romine said:
No thanks. You started this publicly, you can conclude it publicly in whatever way you think is wise.

Again, with the motte-and-bailey. You wrote that we, on this board, had contempt for Francy were rooting against him.

So. Where are you going with this? Up to you.

Your disgust for Franchy Cordero after 102 Red Sox PAs was so strong that it prompted you to start an All-Time Red Sox Disappointment thread and list him first among outfielders. Is he really the most disappointing Red Sox outfielder of all time?

Rovin Romine said:
Cordero is a putrid, appalling, joke of a player at the plate.

Here’s another of your posts about him last spring. Feel free to dig around for more.

BornToRun · Apr 7, 2022

Petagine in a Bottle said:
https://theathletic.com/news/xander-bogaerts-says-despite-red-sox-contract-offer-extension-wont-happen-this-season/iNnH6yW2ihPH/

Bogaerts turns down extension, not open to discussing during the season.

Not a whole lot of good news in regard to this and Raffy over the last few days. Really kind of a bummer heading into the new season.

mikeford · Apr 7, 2022

The Bogaerts thing is kinda whatever. They've signed his replacement already if he leaves, the market next year will probably have Correa and Turner in it potentially depressing his ability to command top of the market dollar at SS, you can at least understand the logic of taking a hard line on his negotiation.

The Devers non-extension is another matter entirely. I believe Hector Gomez said the Sox were planning to present another offer today. It does not seem we've gotten that info but we do know he was offered more than Jose Ramirez just got in the first place and Devers camp wouldn't even consider it so... not looking great!

curly2 · Apr 7, 2022

chawson said:
One thing I’ll point out is that I consistently said “fan base” — not posters here. But also, you have to admit that there’s a disparity between how many hits you get on a SOSH (or twitter) search for “wily mo pena + franchy cordero” (and variations) compared to how many you get for “wily mo pena + dalbec/duran/chavis”.

I don't believe I ever made the comparison, but I can see how it was done. Chavis (a second baseman) and Dalbec (a first basemen) both were drafted by the Sox and came up through their system. Pena and Cordero were outfielders who had both been with two other organizations and were said to have great, untapped potential that a forward-thinking GM traded someone useful, popular with fans and a contributor to a world champion, to get.

It like no one ever said they wished Steven Wright would be an innings-eater like Rick Porcello. He was always compared to Wakefield.

I would LOVE for Cordero to be good with the Red Sox and I don't think people saying how bad he was last year means they're rooting against him. If JBJ is really struggling at the end of May and Cordero is tearing up Triple-A, give him a shot.

Rovin Romine · Apr 7, 2022

chawson said:
Here’s another of your posts about him last spring. Feel free to dig around for more.

Yet again you refuse to address your posting that the board was immediately biased against Franchy Cordero.

And while it's a side issue - did you offer the quote to imply my assessment (putrid) of Franchy's .464 OPS was motivated by my bias toward his "funny name?" Or that Franchy's contemporaneous demotion to AAA was Red Sox's bias toward his "funny name?" Or is it more likely that he was just stinking up the joint?

***

But I think we've reached an end here.

I accept that your personal theories on baseball mean a lot to you. So much that you will not take the face-saving out of saying, "Hey, I mispoke." Which has been repeatedly lit up for you like a solitary landing strip.

You prefer to keep your insinuation in place that your fellow posters are racially biased because they disagreed with your. . ."gushing" I think is the kindest word. . .assessment of a player who turned in a putrid 2022 campaign.

Or perhaps you genuinely believe that we're all racially biased against Franchy Cordero.

Either way, my advice to you, given the markers you've set up and defended, is to get better at those baseball theories. Because I think they're the only thing you're salvaging from this.

mauf · Apr 7, 2022

Rovin Romine said:
Yet again you refuse to address your posting that the board was immediately biased against Franchy Cordero.

And while it's a side issue - did you offer the quote to imply my assessment (putrid) of Franchy's .464 OPS was motivated by my bias toward his "funny name?" Or that Franchy's contemporaneous demotion to AAA was Red Sox's bias toward his "funny name?" Or is it more likely that he was just stinking up the joint?

***

But I think we've reached an end here.

I accept that your personal theories on baseball mean a lot to you. So much that you will not take the face-saving out of saying, "Hey, I mispoke." Which has been repeatedly lit up for you like a solitary landing strip.

You prefer to keep your insinuation in place that your fellow posters are racially biased because they disagreed with your. . ."gushing" I think is the kindest word. . .assessment of a player who turned in a putrid 2022 campaign.

Or perhaps you genuinely believe that we're all racially biased against Franchy Cordero.

Either way, my advice to you, given the markers you've set up and defended, is to get better at those baseball theories. Because I think they're the only thing you're salvaging from this.

This is the last word on this kerfuffle. Let’s move on.

absintheofmalaise · Apr 7, 2022

@Rovin Romine and @chawson need to take this particular discussion to PMs.

OCD SS · Apr 7, 2022

With X we are negotiating to pay for his decline years when he definitely shouldn’t be a SS.

With Devers we are negotiating for his prime seasons. We can’t expect his defense to improve, but we can expect him to stay at his position for awhile.

mauf · Apr 7, 2022

curly2 said:
I don't believe I ever made the comparison, but I can see how it was done. Chavis (a second baseman) and Dalbec (a first basemen) both were drafted by the Sox and came up through their system. Pena and Cordero were outfielders who had both been with two other organizations and were said to have great, untapped potential that a forward-thinking GM traded someone useful, popular with fans and a contributor to a world champion, to get.

It like no one ever said they wished Steven Wright would be an innings-eater like Rick Porcello. He was always compared to Wakefield.

I would LOVE for Cordero to be good with the Red Sox and I don't think people saying how bad he was last year means they're rooting against him. If JBJ is really struggling at the end of May and Cordero is tearing up Triple-A, give him a shot.

Anyone who doesn’t understand the WMP/Cordero comp isn’t old enough (or a fan long enough) to remember WMP. The parallels are obvious — athletic-looking guys with plus-plus power who couldn’t figure out enough of the rest of the game to be useful players, and were old enough by the time they got here that we should’ve known better than to be optimistic, but the raw talent was just so tantalizing.

snowmanny · Apr 7, 2022

chawson said:
Says the guy who posts 99 percent snark and ignores PMs.

Gods do not answer letters.

opes · Apr 7, 2022

I like baseball. I think people misunderstand each other sometimes too. Lets talk about how much each of us like baseball instead of fighting. /rant over

Petagine in a Bottle · Apr 7, 2022

OCD SS said:
With X we are negotiating to pay for his decline years when he definitely shouldn’t be a SS.

With Devers we are negotiating for his prime seasons. We can’t expect his defense to improve, but we can expect him to stay at his position for awhile.

We’ve got X for one more year, and Devers for two, at least. I’d like both guys back, on the right terms, but I can’t help but think that they want deals that probably aren’t going to be advantageous for the team. Which sucks, but is anyone really feeling good about a 10 year / $360m deal to Devers? Would anyone really want to take on that Betts deal?

DeadlySplitter · Apr 7, 2022

Posted this article in the Xander thread, but there's some nuggets relevant to general offseason as well: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/33692496/shortstop-xander-bogaerts-boston-red-sox-remain-odds-contract-ahead-season-opener

The looming contract situation with Bogaerts influenced Boston's front office in its offseason approach. The team initially circled Corey Seager as its top free-agent target before his contract negotiations exceeded what the team felt comfortable extending to a player, according to team sources. Seager signed a 10-year, $325 million contract with the Rangers.

...

Critics among the Boston media and fans have pejoratively named Bloom's Red Sox as Tampa Bay East, referring to the Rays' unwillingness to invest significant amounts of money during Bloom's time with the team from 2005 through 2019.

But according to front-office sources, the Red Sox are considering making Devers an exception to that philosophy. Because of Devers's youth compared to Bogaerts, the team sees a longer-term investment as a safer bet.

Minneapolis Millers · Apr 7, 2022

Ok. What about offering X 3/105, plus a player option for $20M or a team option for $25M? And a no trade clause. That gets him into Correa territory. And avoids a long term commitment.

Jerry’s Curl · Apr 7, 2022

Petagine in a Bottle said:
https://theathletic.com/news/xander-bogaerts-says-despite-red-sox-contract-offer-extension-wont-happen-this-season/iNnH6yW2ihPH/

Bogaerts turns down extension, not open to discussing during the season.

Bogey is gone and they are going to have to overpay to keep Devers.

Red(s)HawksFan · Apr 8, 2022

Minneapolis Millers said:
Ok. What about offering X 3/105, plus a player option for $20M or a team option for $25M? And a no trade clause. That gets him into Correa territory. And avoids a long term commitment.

X is opting out of 3/60 (or 4/80 if the final option year were to be triggered). I'm not sure just increasing his salary for those same 3-4 years is going to do it for him. He's likely looking for something that will take him into his mid/late 30s. This is his chance for the last big score. If reports are to be believed, it sounds like 7/220 or 8/250 is the ballpark he's looking for.

Brianish · Apr 8, 2022

snowmanny said:
Gods do not answer letters.

I want you to know that I caught this, and appreciate it.

Rovin Romine · Apr 8, 2022

Red(s)HawksFan said:
X is opting out of 3/60 (or 4/80 if the final option year were to be triggered). I'm not sure just increasing his salary for those same 3-4 years is going to do it for him. He's likely looking for something that will take him into his mid/late 30s. This is his chance for the last big score. If reports are to be believed, it sounds like 7/220 or 8/250 is the ballpark he's looking for.

The offseason is coming to an end very very soon. We have an extension thread - perhaps that title should be spruced up and the discussion carried on there?

Brianish said:
I want you to know that I caught this, and appreciate it.

Marvelous.

Minneapolis Millers · Apr 8, 2022

Red(s)HawksFan said:
X is opting out of 3/60 (or 4/80 if the final option year were to be triggered). I'm not sure just increasing his salary for those same 3-4 years is going to do it for him. He's likely looking for something that will take him into his mid/late 30s. This is his chance for the last big score. If reports are to be believed, it sounds like 7/220 or 8/250 is the ballpark he's looking for.

Of course. And if the team were willing to go 8/250, they’d probably have a deal by now. But it’s likely the Sox don’t want to go 7 or 8 unless the AAV is low. So the question is whether there’s a higher AAV that would be attractive enough to X to get him to stay in a place that he seemingly likes, without it being an obvious hometown discount. 4/$125 (or $130) is a sizable jump from 4/$80.

Oops, just saw RR’s suggestion. Yes, other thread is better for this.

chawson · Apr 8, 2022

View: https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/1512414800596418564?s=21&t=P_EO9gciCP7ONYwRGwN_mg

Eager to see how this goes. Judge and Devers have pretty different skill sets, but they’re symbolically similar in that they’re both homegrown superstars who debuted within a year of each other and had similar development timelines.

Judge of course has a lot more defensive value, but is 4 1/2 years older and more injury prone than Raffy. I’d say it’s he less likely than Devers to need to DH in a couple years, but the overall risk is higher because the Yankees already have Stanton at DH through 2027.

I’m sure Raffy’s camp is valuing the age 26-29 seasons accordingly in their asking price, so I’m not expecting whatever contract Judge signs to necessarily be instructive. But it’ll be depressing if the Yankees can get this one done and the Sox cannot.

Sandy Leon Trotsky · Apr 8, 2022

I was so positive that WMP was one long 10 pitch disciplined plate appearance ending in a great BB away from stardom.

joe dokes · Apr 8, 2022

Jerry’s Curl said:
Bogey is gone and they are going to have to overpay to keep Devers.

What is "overpaying," and why will they have to do it?

bosockboy · Apr 8, 2022

View: https://twitter.com/chriscotillo/status/1512465477678870545?s=21&t=TFJJ_jDR52j1gSNEQ2VnVg

YTF · Apr 8, 2022

The blank check/10 year 30M suggestions being tossed around for Devers may be revisited down the road in the worst contract thread. He's a very good hitter who deserves an extension, but I don't see him as a generational talent.

bosockboy · Apr 8, 2022

The Sox may view him as the future DH and that would severely limit how they would value him.

YTF · Apr 8, 2022

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat said:
I actually think he's a generational hitter, but I have no idea what an appropriate contract for him would look like.

Yeah, it's hard. For me the defense is something worth considering as well as the fact that we are in an age where in today's game many teams value that DH spot in a way that they didn't in the past. As we seem to be seeing more and more players playing multiple positions, that spot is now looked at as having value in being able to getting more players additional ABs while creating a rotation of sorts that allows players a few extra days off.

Petagine in a Bottle · Apr 8, 2022

He’s a really good player, but generational? He hit 279/352/538 last year. Those are pretty close to Trevor Story’s career #s.

scottyno · Apr 8, 2022

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat said:
I actually think he's a generational hitter, but I have no idea what an appropriate contract for him would look like.

He hasn't had an ops+ above 132 yet. He's been very good but calling him generational when he plays at the same time as guys like Trout, Harper, Vlad, Soto and more is ridiculous.

sean1562 · Apr 8, 2022

Yea I see Devers as a great hitter at 3B but I am very wary of offering him any sort of 10 year deal at $30 million plus. I don't really expect him to get any better defensively at 3B and I doubt many other teams do either. I am not sure what the team really gets out of extending him now instead of just trying to extend him when he is a FA. If he looks even more like a future 1B/DH type in 2024, he is looking at a slightly elevated Matt Olson contract. Juan Soto is a FA the year after Devers is and is two years younger.

John Marzano Olympic Hero · Apr 8, 2022

All, I have a feeling that $30M+ is going to be the going rate for stars in the near future. You're right, Devers isn't a generational talent, but he is a star. If the Sox want to keep Devers (and I sincerely hope that they do) then they're going to have to pay the man. They have the cash.

BigSoxFan · Apr 8, 2022

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat said:
It's just my opinion, as is implying that Vlad is a generational hitter after one great year is ridiculous.
Maybe the term is too grandiose. I think he's a great hitter, getting better, and still only 25. I think he's something special, others don't. Ok.

Regardless of how you label him, he is absolutely a foundational player that the team needs to keep. Defense is what it is but the guy rakes and finding good middle-of-the-order hitters is pretty freaking hard. JD is aging out. X is probably leaving. Casas has promise but is a complete unknown. I hate long deals but they have to keep him. If the last few years are a bit of a waste, so be it.

Scoops Bolling · Apr 8, 2022

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat said:
It's just my opinion, as is implying that Vlad is a generational hitter after one great year is ridiculous.
Maybe the term is too grandiose. I think he's a great hitter, getting better, and still only 25. I think he's something special, others don't. Ok.

In VGJ's "one great year", he walked at a higher clip than Devers ever has, struck out less than Devers ever has, hit for more power than Devers ever has, and put up better Statcast numbers in every single category than Devers ever has. He's a great young hitter, but barring an unexpected improvement in his defense as he gets older, he's going to need to continue to make marked improvements with the bat simply to stay as valuable as a baseball player as he's been in the past. In all likelihood he's going to shift down the defensive spectrum as he gets older, and a 130+ wRC simply isn't special as a 1B or a DH. In 2021, there were ten 1B at that level, and another five within 5 points of it.That's a Freddie Freeman, Matt Olson, or Paul Goldschmidt level player on the high end, and that's if he's a good defensive 1B who doesn't lose too much of a step. And two of those three have a higher career wRC+ than Devers' career high, while Olson's career figure only two points away from Devers' career high, so Devers has to improve with the bat just to reach that level.

John Marzano Olympic Hero said:
All, I have a feeling that $30M+ is going to be the going rate for stars in the near future. You're right, Devers isn't a generational talent, but he is a star. If the Sox want to keep Devers (and I sincerely hope that they do) then they're going to have to pay the man. They have the cash.

They have the cash, that doesn't mean they should spend it foolishly and pay him more than he warrants. If Devers wants to stay in Boston and be paid commensurate with what he's likely to be worth, I hope the Sox sign him and he sticks around. If he wants to be paid like a star 3B and get as much cash as he can, getting paid much more than a significantly better 3B just signed for (Jose Ramirez), then I'd prefer the Sox spend their bullets on on targets that are going to justify the cost. This isn't fantasy baseball. The idea that "they have money, they can just spend it" isn't how it works, isn't how it's ever going to work, and is frankly just an unserious way of looking at things that would just lead to a Dombrowski special of overpaid legacy players who cripple the team's finances for years. I root for the Red Sox, the jersey is greater than any player in it.

BornToRun · Apr 8, 2022

Scoops Bolling said:
They have the cash, that doesn't mean they should spend it foolishly and pay him more than he warrants. If Devers wants to stay in Boston and be paid commensurate with what he's likely to be worth, I hope the Sox sign him and he sticks around. If he wants to be paid like a star 3B and get as much cash as he can, getting paid much more than a significantly better 3B just signed for (Jose Ramirez), then I'd prefer the Sox spend their bullets on on targets that are going to justify the cost. This isn't fantasy baseball. The idea that "they have money, they can just spend it" isn't how it works, isn't how it's ever going to work, and is frankly just an unserious way of looking at things that would just lead to a Dombrowski special of overpaid legacy players who cripple the team's finances for years. I root for the Red Sox, the jersey is greater than any player in it.

I think this is the kind of fandom pep talk I needed so I offer my thanks. I think I’m still stung by what went down with Mookie, a move I actually understood and came to be okay with, that the idea of losing two more homegrown stars to other teams kind of bummed me out to the point that the failure to reach extensions before the season began actually sapped some of my excitement for opening day. However, while I would’ve preferred Betts been a Red Sox lifer who chiseled his likeness alongside Papi, Yaz, and Teddy on our Mount Rushmore; I’m perfectly fine not being the team paying him 36 million a year into his late 30’s. Xander is probably gone and that’s okay if that what’s best for the future of the Red Sox and as for Raffy, there’s still time and a lot money coming off the books to make it work so fingers crossed and trust in Chaim to make the right call.

soxhop411 · Apr 8, 2022

Scoops Bolling said:
In VGJ's "one great year", he walked at a higher clip than Devers ever has, struck out less than Devers ever has, hit for more power than Devers ever has, and put up better Statcast numbers in every single category than Devers ever has. He's a great young hitter, but barring an unexpected improvement in his defense as he gets older, he's going to need to continue to make marked improvements with the bat simply to stay as valuable as a baseball player as he's been in the past. In all likelihood he's going to shift down the defensive spectrum as he gets older, and a 130+ wRC simply isn't special as a 1B or a DH. In 2021, there were ten 1B at that level, and another five within 5 points of it.That's a Freddie Freeman, Matt Olson, or Paul Goldschmidt level player on the high end, and that's if he's a good defensive 1B who doesn't lose too much of a step. And two of those three have a higher career wRC+ than Devers' career high, while Olson's career figure only two points away from Devers' career high, so Devers has to improve with the bat just to reach that level.

They have the cash, that doesn't mean they should spend it foolishly and pay him more than he warrants. If Devers wants to stay in Boston and be paid commensurate with what he's likely to be worth, I hope the Sox sign him and he sticks around. If he wants to be paid like a star 3B and get as much cash as he can, getting paid much more than a significantly better 3B just signed for (Jose Ramirez), then I'd prefer the Sox spend their bullets on on targets that are going to justify the cost. This isn't fantasy baseball. The idea that "they have money, they can just spend it" isn't how it works, isn't how it's ever going to work, and is frankly just an unserious way of looking at things that would just lead to a Dombrowski special of overpaid legacy players who cripple the team's finances for years. I root for the Red Sox, the jersey is greater than any player in it.

Also. Spending like a drunken sailor was only possible a few CBA’s ago where teams could spend as much money as the GDP of a small country and not face penalties.
There is a reason the Sox and Yankees do not spend like they did in the early 2000’s. And that they have not done so since “caps” were introduced in the MLB/international draft and and the CBT

chawson · Apr 9, 2022

John Marzano Olympic Hero said:
All, I have a feeling that $30M+ is going to be the going rate for stars in the near future. You're right, Devers isn't a generational talent, but he is a star. If the Sox want to keep Devers (and I sincerely hope that they do) then they're going to have to pay the man. They have the cash.

This is where I’m at. A $30M contract for Devers over 8-10 years may not be dripping in surplus value, but there won’t be many opportunities to get a .900 OPS bat in the next few years. A lot of teams have extended their young stars. He’s also beloved, and you never know which personalities can thrive in Boston.

The going rate for star-level players will likely increase with the new CBT levels. Soto aside, I don’t see many opportunities to spend that money going forward, or at least as wisely as paying Devers. And our top in-house 3B candidates are Binelas, a promising bat but already a below average defender at third, and Bonaci, projected more as a utility man.

FA 3B in ‘23: J. Turner (40 - option*), Longoria (36)
in ‘24: Devers (27), Chapman (31), Candelario (30), Donaldson (38)*, Moustakas (35)
in ‘25: Bregman (31), Suarez (33)
in ‘26: Moncada (31), Urias (29), Riley (29), Senzel (31)

Cesar Crespo · Apr 9, 2022

BigSoxFan said:
Regardless of how you label him, he is absolutely a foundational player that the team needs to keep. Defense is what it is but the guy rakes and finding good middle-of-the-order hitters is pretty freaking hard. JD is aging out. X is probably leaving. Casas has promise but is a complete unknown. I hate long deals but they have to keep him. If the last few years are a bit of a waste, so be it.

Why? The team will live without Devers just like they lived without Betts. Team did ok after Jon Lester too.

I hope the Sox keep avoiding these monster 10 year contracts. Devers can be replaced. Every player can be and every player eventually is.

John Marzano Olympic Hero · Apr 9, 2022

Scoops Bolling said:
They have the cash, that doesn't mean they should spend it foolishly and pay him more than he warrants. If Devers wants to stay in Boston and be paid commensurate with what he's likely to be worth, I hope the Sox sign him and he sticks around. If he wants to be paid like a star 3B and get as much cash as he can, getting paid much more than a significantly better 3B just signed for (Jose Ramirez), then I'd prefer the Sox spend their bullets on on targets that are going to justify the cost. This isn't fantasy baseball. The idea that "they have money, they can just spend it" isn't how it works, isn't how it's ever going to work, and is frankly just an unserious way of looking at things that would just lead to a Dombrowski special of overpaid legacy players who cripple the team's finances for years. I root for the Red Sox, the jersey is greater than any player in it.

They wouldn't be spending it foolishly though. Rafael Devers is the second or maybe third best third baseman in either league and the best one just signed a very team-friendly deal to stay in Cleveland. Not only that but he's entering his prime years, so what we're seeing today; the odds are that he's only going to get better. Rafael Devers is not an "overpaid legacy player".

I don't know how you're going to upgrade the third base position, especially through free agency because the list that Chawson posted is less than inspiring. And trading assets for a replacement seems a little dumb to me too when you already have a player that's, you know, really good.

InsideTheParker · Apr 9, 2022

YTF said:
Yeah, it's hard. For me the defense is something worth considering as well as the fact that we are in an age where in today's game many teams value that DH spot in a way that they didn't in the past. As we seem to be seeing more and more players playing multiple positions, that spot is now looked at as having value in being able to getting more players additional ABs while creating a rotation of sorts that allows players a few extra days off.

I think his defense has improved enormously. I was repeatedly impressed with it in Spring Training. He may be able to stick at third longer than people expect, based on his past performance.

mikcou · Apr 9, 2022

InsideTheParker said:
I think his defense has improved enormously. I was repeatedly impressed with it in Spring Training. He may be able to stick at third longer than people expect, based on his past performance.

This is an important point and something that seems to get conflated - the reason people have been historically worried that he wont be able to stay at third are mostly body type related. His prior defensive issues are not range related (he has a very good first step), but entirely mechanical that result in inaccurate throws.

Thats not impossible to fix - this isnt a Xander problem where he's starting from fringe-average to below range to begin with. Doesnt mean he'll ever get consistent enough mechanics to cut down significantly on errant throws, but its more plausible than someone improving their range going into their late 20s/early 30s.

Philip Jeff Frye · Apr 9, 2022

When I read somewhere in this thread a couple of days ago that Devers has led the league in errors four years in a row, I thought of some Bill James quote (not sure what player he was talking about) that suggested somebody leading the league in errors several times meant that he must actually be pretty good at fielding his position - if he weren't, the errors would get him moved down the defensive spectrum or else forced out of the game entirely. In our case, it's not as if the Bosox have had somebody blocking Raffy from taking over first in recent years if they thought he couldn't handle the position.

Red Sox in season discussion

Member

Member

Johnny Rico

thai good. you like shirt?

Member

Johnny Rico

Experiencing Furry Panic

Member

Member

Member

woolwich!

Member

Johnny Rico

Anderson Cooper × Mr. Rogers

too many flowers

Well-Known Member

Anderson Cooper × Mr. Rogers

Member

Doctor Tongue

Member

Member

Wants you to please think of the Twins fans!

New Member

Member

Member

Johnny Rico

Wants you to please think of the Twins fans!

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

has big, douchey shoulders

Member

Member

late Bloomer

Member

has big, douchey shoulders

has fancy plans, and pants to match

Member

Member

Member

news aggravator

Member

79

has fancy plans, and pants to match

persists in error

Member

Member