How to get back in this thing

Cesar Crespo

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Devers is currently on pace for:

124 r
231 h
67 2b
35 hr
90 rbi
408 total bases
8.7 bWAR
slash line of: .342/.374/.603/.977
170 ops+

He's 25 years, 227 days old. Not counting 2020 (a "season" in which he was still good), this is his ops+ trend the last 4 seasons: 94, 132, 132, 170.

What in the world would he get on the open market if he could sign freely with any team right now? 12/400? What should Boston be willing to extend him for? That's a serious question.
I doubt his season to date changes the equation any. He's currently sporting a .382 BAbip. He's also been especially lucky vs lefties. Slashing .356/.367/.576 with a .463 BAbip in 60 PA. 1bb/16k.

Lets see if he finishes the season with a 170 OPS+ or if he's closer to 130 before offering 10/300, never mind 12/400.
 

azsoxpatsfan

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Or you're explaining yourself poorly.

Either way, they're a team that won 90+ games a year for seven years, made the playoffs every year in that time and won a WS plus multiple other postseason series against teams outside their division. They're an excellent team regardless of who their division-mates happen to be.
Friedman’s first season was 2015. The Dodgers went 92-70 and lost the NLDS. Bloom’s first full season was 2021. The Sox went 92-70 and lost the ALCS. In 2016 the Dodgers started 29-27, ended 91-71 and lost the NLCS. In 2022, the Sox have started 29-27.

FWIW, you can claim divisional strength doesn’t really matter, but the Dodgers won the west both of those seasons, by 7 and 8 games. In 2021 the Sox tied for second, one game ahead of the fourth place Blue Jays, whose 91-71 record was the same as the Dodgers’ NL West winning record in 2016. When the 2016 Dodgers were 29-27, they were in 2nd, 5.5 out of 1st.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Of course they are. I don't think anyone has argued otherwise. They'd be a good team in any division. But it is also true that the AL East has been a monster of a division. This year the top 4 teams are 4 of the top 6 teams in the AL, and 4 of the top 12 in all of baseball. It's absolutely stacked, and if you put any of them in a lesser division, their combined winning percentage would likely be such that NYY, Tor, TB, and Bos would be 4 of the top 8-10 teams in all MLB. And they're all in the same division.

It really does matter, especially with unbalanced scheduling.
IIRC my initial comment was that it was "awfully overblown," in reply to a suggestion that the Dodgers success was due in part (large part?) to the lack of strength in their division.

If the Dodgers had failed to find any postseason success against non-divisional rivals, I'd be inclined to ascribe the heights of their success to the weak division. But that hasn't been the case.

The Sox are 7-14 against the division this year. The division may well be stacked but .333 against them ain't gonna cut it. We'll have to see how their latter games against divisional opponents go to get a gauge of their quality in comparison.
 

YTF

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Or you're explaining yourself poorly.

Either way, they're a team that won 90+ games a year for seven years, made the playoffs every year in that time and won a WS plus multiple other postseason series against teams outside their division. They're an excellent team regardless of who their division-mates happen to be.
You're comparing organisations and cited the 90+ win total for LA since Freidman took the reigns in LA. I pointed out the difference in the competition that LA faced within their own division during that time vs the AL east during Bloom's short tenure. That 90 games is meaningful enough to the point that you use it to support your position, but when I point out the level of competition that helped achieve that mark it's a non factor.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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You're comparing organisations and cited the 90+ win total for LA since Freidman took the reigns in LA. I pointed out the difference in the competition that LA faced within their own division during that time vs the AL east during Bloom's short tenure. That 90 games is meaningful enough to the point that you use it to support your position, but when I point out the level of competition that helped achieve that mark it's a non factor.
Answered above.
 

jon abbey

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Also the CBA was a lot looser when LA started their rebuilding program, which allowed them to make a deal like the Punto one and not hurt themselves in non-financial ways.
 

soxhop411

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Or you're explaining yourself poorly.

Either way, they're a team that won 90+ games a year for seven years, made the playoffs every year in that time and won a WS plus multiple other postseason series against teams outside their division. They're an excellent team regardless of who their division-mates happen to be.
Nah, that matters a lot, just ask the TWINS who frequently ran away with their division only to get creamed by the yankees in the playoffs every year.



Of course they are. I don't think anyone has argued otherwise. They'd be a good team in any division. But it is also true that the AL East has been a monster of a division. This year the top 4 teams are 4 of the top 6 teams in the AL, and 4 of the top 12 in all of baseball. It's absolutely stacked, and if you put any of them in a lesser division, their combined winning percentage would likely be such that NYY, Tor, TB, and Bos would be 4 of the top 8-10 teams in all MLB. And they're all in the same division.

It really does matter, especially with unbalanced scheduling.
Yes
You also need to take the divisions into account.
NL West
2020: two teams above 500
2019 two teams above 500
2018 3 teams above 500
2017 3 teams above 500
2016 2 teams above 500
2015 two teams above 500
2014: two teams above 500
2013 two teams above 500

Al east:
2020: three teams above 500
2019 thee teams above 500 (two with 90+ wins)
2018 3 teams above 500 (3 with 90+ wins)
2017 2 teams above 500 (2 with 90+ wins)
2016 FOUR teams above 500
2015 THREE teams above 500
2014: THREE teams above 500
2013 FOUR teams above 500 (2 with 90+ wins)

In only two of those years did the NL West have two 90+ win teams.
It’s easy to make the playoffs every year when the division you play in is crap. As the Indians can attest to (when they make the playoffs and then get easily beaten by the yankees)
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Nah, that matters a lot, just ask the TWINS who frequently ran away with their division only to get creamed by the yankees in the playoffs every year.

It’s easy to make the playoffs every year when the division you play in is crap. As the Indians can attest to (when they make the playoffs and then get easily beaten by the yankees)
It is NOT easy to then win playoff series however, which is something the Twins haven't done. I specifically noted winning playoff series as another indication that the team is genuinely quality.
 

Rovin Romine

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Of course they are. I don't think anyone has argued otherwise. They'd be a good team in any division. But it is also true that the AL East has been a monster of a division. This year the top 4 teams are 4 of the top 6 teams in the AL, and 4 of the top 12 in all of baseball. It's absolutely stacked, and if you put any of them in a lesser division, their combined winning percentage would likely be such that NYY, Tor, TB, and Bos would be 4 of the top 8-10 teams in all MLB. And they're all in the same division.

It really does matter, especially with unbalanced scheduling.
In some ways it's not very different than pre-wild card (or 1 WC slot). Back then, you might be a great team, and even have a great record, but you may not get in if you're in a tough division. Access can be blocked by a better divisional team above you. Meanwhile, a shrub from another division gets in.

Here, with the unbalanced schedule, the outcome dynamic is smiliar, but the way it plays out is different:
- If talent is spread among the 3 divisions, the teams with the best records will generally be the best and get in.
- If talent is strongly clustered, a good team in the tough division might get pushed toward .500 with the unbalanced schedule. Put that same team in a weak division, and under the unbalanced schedule, they get more wins out of the same effot. Because they're playing against easier teams.

In terms of outcomes, you can get a good team with a poor in-division record missing the WC clustering. Meanwhile you can get one or more teams from weak divisions compiling a good W-L record against the dreck of their own division - and so getting a WC spot.

Maybe the biggest inequity would be a very strong division (AL East?) and a weak division in the same league - say with 2 teams that are essentially punting. One or two teams in the strong divison get suppressed records. One or two teams in the weak division get a huge boost.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Jan 13, 2021
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Devers is currently on pace for:

124 r
231 h
67 2b
35 hr
90 rbi
408 total bases
8.7 bWAR
slash line of: .342/.374/.603/.977
170 ops+

He's 25 years, 227 days old. Not counting 2020 (a "season" in which he was still good), this is his ops+ trend the last 4 seasons: 94, 132, 132, 170.

What in the world would he get on the open market if he could sign freely with any team right now? 12/400? What should Boston be willing to extend him for? That's a serious question.
I’ve long maintained that Devers would be looking for a 10-12 year deal at close to $400m and nothing I’ve seen this year changes that. Gonna be a tough one to figure out.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Friedman was actually winning during all of those early moves. 90+ wins and a playoff appearance every year. He may have been re-tooling on the fly but was still successful on the field. You can trade/allow to walk players as long as you're still winning and making the playoffs.

Bloom has been unable to match that. Drafting and player development would be great to have, but so far have yet to bear much fruit for Bloom. Perhaps it will, but in the meantime the on-field results have been nowhere near those of LA. I'm glad we made the playoffs last year but the hoped-for building from that success hasn't happened.
I’m not sure I understand what you’re talking about. Friedman didn’t take over the Rays. Or, say, the Orioles. The Dodgers won 94 games in 2014 and 92 in 2013 and finished first both years. He then won 92. And then 91. So continuing to win “90+” games is…ok? Good? Fantastic?

Friedman’s good and smart. He hasn’t been transcendent, or done anything that Bloom still can’t.

Far more broadly, it might be because I’m an old fart who remembers the bad old days, but the whining-without-perspective attitude of some here is… disappointing. We still own more titles in the 2000s than Any. Other. Team.
 

azsoxpatsfan

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Understood but you really shouldn't. It was a MLB season and he was there since the beginning of the 2019 offseason.
I just think it’s difficult to judge him on a small sample size when the team was intentionally punting. But if you include that, Friedman had a more successful first season, Bloom had a more successful second season. Either way, not like Friedman was immediately more successful than Bloom has been, which is what SJH seems to think.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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It sometimes do
I’m not sure I understand what you’re talking about. Friedman didn’t take over the Rays. Or, say, the Orioles. The Dodgers won 94 games in 2014 and 92 in 2013 and finished first both years. He then won 92. And then 91. So continuing to win “90+” games is…ok? Good? Fantastic?

Friedman’s good and smart. He hasn’t been transcendent, or done anything that Bloom still can’t.

Far more broadly, it might be because I’m an old fart who remembers the bad old days, but the whining-without-perspective attitude of some here is… disappointing. We still own more titles in the 2000s than Any. Other. Team.
I don't see how that's a knock against Friedman: after all, Bloom took over a team that won 3 straight divisional titles from 2016-2018, so it's not like Bloom was taking over the Orioles or something.

Friedman kept winning while retooling the team, and has continued to win for 7 straight years.
 

CoffeeNerdness

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If one is still looking at overall season performance to date, I could see why they'd be negative. There are 4 positions hitting well below average. Of course, those 4 players have been trending upwards and their stats could be/are bogged down by a bad April.
If they've scored the most runs in the AL with four players hitting well below average how much of a negative is that really? Having four players hitting below average and an offense that struggled through all of April but still has the most runs scored in the AL... bullish.

https://tenor.com/view/bullish-lac-chonkula-rickles-donrickles-gif-18783484
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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I just think it’s difficult to judge him on a small sample size when the team was intentionally punting. But if you include that, Friedman had a more successful first season, Bloom had a more successful second season. Either way, not like Friedman was immediately more successful than Bloom has been, which is what SJH seems to think.
Right. But if the team was intentionally punting that was Bloom's choice (or at least he signed off on it when he joined the team, assuming that Henry/Warner made that mandate) and should count in the final column. It's not like he joined the team in August 2020 and spent that offseason digging himself out of a hole that someone put him in.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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It sometimes do

I don't see how that's a knock against Friedman: after all, Bloom took over a team that won 3 straight divisional titles from 2016-2018, so it's not like Bloom was taking over the Orioles or something.

Friedman kept winning while retooling the team, and has continued to win for 7 straight years.
No, Bloom took over a team that tried to extend that streak by resigning Eo and extending Sale, limiting its financial flexibility and then coming up short.

But this is not all a criticism of Friedman, per se. It’s context. Friedman has presided over a team that had the #1 payroll in MLB the two years before he came, and his first two years, and for 5 of the 8 years he’s run the team, including last year and this year. He’s basically playing for George f’n Steinbrenner. That gives him a shit ton of flexibility to be “creative.“ So if your ultimate complaint is that Bloom isn’t Friedman, well, ok.

And please don’t say that Bloom took over the #1 payroll team. We know he did, but his obvious marching orders were to get the team right back under the tax. Which he did, by trading Mookie and dumping Price. Let me know when Henry et al authorize a $300M payroll and Bloom f’s it up.
 
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Minneapolis Millers

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…It's not like he joined the team in August 2020 and spent that offseason digging himself out of a hole that someone put him in.
He joined the team in the 2019 offseason after ownership shitcanned the prior GM, in season, less than a year after winning the f’n WS. You think Bloom was told, “Hey, come on in, do whatever the hell you want, you’ve got an unlimited budget!” Bloom came in to dig the team out of the hole that ownership felt DD put them in.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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And please don’t say that Bloom took over the #1 payroll team. We know he did, but his obvious marching orders were to get the team right back under the tax. Which he did, by trading Mookie and dumping Price. Let me know when Henry et al authorize a $300M payroll and Bloom f’s it up.
It's fine to note that Bloom was told to get the team right back under the tax. He can of course be criticized for the way he did that; even if you think trading Mookie was the right choice, the return for him has so far proven to be extremely underwhelming as Verdugo hasn't impressed and the prospects haven't shown signs of developing into impact players. That's on Bloom.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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He joined the team in the 2019 offseason after ownership shitcanned the prior GM, in season, less than a year after winning the f’n WS. You think Bloom was told, “Hey, come on in, do whatever the hell you want, you’ve got an unlimited budget!” Bloom came in to dig the team out of the hole that ownership felt DD put them in.
No. Who the fuck said that? What are you talking about?

And payroll aside, the Sox were hardly in a hole. They had a young, really good outfield led by a once-in-a-generation super star. The leftside of their infield was also young and excellent. First base and second were an issue, but catching was league average. The bullpen wasn't too bad and the starters were fine too. Plus they had a young, smart manager who just lead them to 108 regular season wins. Payroll aside, the Sox should have been set up for five years of really good baseball. But the owners didn't feel like they were making enough money, so they hired a guy to blow it up.

Other than that, the team was just in absolute shambles!
 

BringBackMo

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Come on. During the 2020 season, Chris Sale was lost to TJ surgery, and Eduardo Rodriguez was lost to a covid-related heart condition. Forty percent of the starting rotation lost. JD Martinez was horrific, apparently because pandemic restrictions kept him from reviewing in-game video...? Whatever the reason for his performance, he was awful. The manager, meanwhile, was fired prior to the season for conduct from before he joined the Sox. Any fair analysis of how the major league club has performed under Bloom has got to take all of those factors into account while assessing the 2020 season.
 

Max Power

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No. Who the fuck said that? What are you talking about?

And payroll aside, the Sox were hardly in a hole. They had a young, really good outfield led by a once-in-a-generation super star. The leftside of their infield was also young and excellent. First base and second were an issue, but catching was league average. The bullpen wasn't too bad and the starters were fine too. Plus they had a young, smart manager who just lead them to 108 regular season wins. Payroll aside, the Sox should have been set up for five years of really good baseball. But the owners didn't feel like they were making enough money, so they hired a guy to blow it up.

Other than that, the team was just in absolute shambles!
Did you sleep through 2019? They won 84 games with all those young, excellent players. The team looked like it was headed in the wrong direction and they hired someone to make changes. I know it sounds better to say they went from 108 wins to wanting to be the Rays because John Henry is cheap, but that's not reality.
 

Archer1979

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So... I'm a little curious, and check that math is correct... but since the Sox low point, which I'm going to say is May 8th after they were swept by the ChiSox at home, the team's record stood at 10 - 19 after 29 games for a .345 winning pct... which I think we can all agree is god-awful.

Since May 8th, the team's record is 19 - 8 over 27 games for a winning pct. of .704... which I think we can all agree is pretty damned good.

The problem for me is that the competition level over the last 27 games has been chock-full of a lot of teams that aren't going to make the playoffs. The competition over the first 29 games was comprised mostly of teams that are probably going to make the playoffs. As three of them are in the AL East, we get to see them another 44 games (with a good chunk from late June to early August).

Which team is going to show up once we start seeing the AL East come back on the schedule? If they can play them even (.500), the Sox have a great shot as they still have 62 games left and could rattle off 35 - 40 wins (based on what we've seen in the last 27 games). If the team regresses to its early season form (in other words the team that posted a 10 - 19 record after the first 27 games)... I'm not that optimistic.
 

BaseballJones

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Most successful teams play decently against really good opponents and lambaste the crappy opponents. That's how to win 95 games. Most 95 win teams don't smoke WS contenders and then struggle against the dregs.
 

Archer1979

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Most successful teams play decently against really good opponents and lambaste the crappy opponents. That's how to win 95 games. Most 95 win teams don't smoke WS contenders and then struggle against the dregs.
Decently would suggest .500. Do you think that the Sox could play .500 against the rest of the AL East? They haven't proven anything close to that.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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Come on. During the 2020 season, Chris Sale was lost to TJ surgery, and Eduardo Rodriguez was lost to a covid-related heart condition. Forty percent of the starting rotation lost. JD Martinez was horrific, apparently because pandemic restrictions kept him from reviewing in-game video...? Whatever the reason for his performance, he was awful. The manager, meanwhile, was fired prior to the season for conduct from before he joined the Sox. Any fair analysis of how the major league club has performed under Bloom has got to take all of those factors into account while assessing the 2020 season.
That's life in the Big Leagues, buckeroo. Sorry.

Did you sleep through 2019? They won 84 games with all those young, excellent players. The team looked like it was headed in the wrong direction and they hired someone to make changes. I know it sounds better to say they went from 108 wins to wanting to be the Rays because John Henry is cheap, but that's not reality.
The Sox were rolling along until September 8 when they had a 76-66 record. They proceeded to lose 12 of their last 19 games, which dumped them into third place. It was around that time that the starting pitching blew up, but prior to that had some really good months (.600 in July and .593 in May) and some good months (.556 and .519 in June and August) that were sandwiched around a crappy April and September. You can look at the 2019 as a glass half-filled or a glass half-empty team. I think that they would have been really good in 2020, but Henry and company disagree.

It's not quite as cut and dry as you make it sound.
 

tims4wins

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That's life in the Big Leagues, buckeroo. Sorry.
So Theo was responsible for the 2006 and 2010 injury collapses? That's a take, I guess.
The Sox were rolling along until September 8 when they had a 76-66 record. They proceeded to lose 12 of their last 19 games, which dumped them into third place. It was around that time that the starting pitching blew up, but prior to that had some really good months (.600 in July and .593 in May) and some good months (.556 and .519 in June and August) that were sandwiched around a crappy April and September. You can look at the 2019 as a glass half-filled or a glass half-empty team. I think that they would have been really good in 2020, but Henry and company disagree.

It's not quite as cut and dry as you make it sound.
76-66 is "rolling along"?? That's an 87 win pace. Pretty mediocre. They were also 16.5 games out of the division at that point. They were never within 10 games of the division lead after the end of July. Since a bunch of the negative posters have pointed to being in competition for the division title as a barometer, that season was "over" pretty early too. They were 5+ games out from May 21 on. 8+ out from June 22 on. And 10+ out from July 31 on. But yeah, they were rolling right along.
 

BaseballJones

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Decently would suggest .500. Do you think that the Sox could play .500 against the rest of the AL East? They haven't proven anything close to that.
I think they could. If they smacked Baltimore around (which they haven’t done but should) and lost the season series to NY and Tor, and basically split with TB, then that’s about .500.

But this team isn’t winning 95 games.
 

InsideTheParker

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Ever since Mookie was traded, the same suspects who can't get over it have been whining about how they won't spend money anymore, and every year the payroll ends up among the tops in the game, at or above the CBT threshold (as it is this year). When it actually dips significantly below, then I'll listen to cries of how they are just not committed to winning.
Thank you. Mods, this thread has just been perfectly summarized. Do we actually need it anymore?
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Did you sleep through 2019? They won 84 games with all those young, excellent players. The team looked like it was headed in the wrong direction and they hired someone to make changes. I know it sounds better to say they went from 108 wins to wanting to be the Rays because John Henry is cheap, but that's not reality.
That team had no depth; it winning only 84 games didn’t have much to do with the core but with the awful supporting cast. In some ways, I think it was a hangover season. They started off slow, seemed to think they would just turn it on at some point, and didn’t. That team, led by Cora, seemed to have the attitude of “don’t worry, we’ll figure it out”, but never did. It happens.
 

azsoxpatsfan

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Thank you. Mods, this thread has just been perfectly summarized. Do we actually need it anymore?
The thread isn’t really needed, as by any reasonable definition the team is back in contention. Last season we were two games away from going to the World Series, and this season we currently hold a playoff spot and are 19-8 over the past 27 games. But some fans aren’t happy unless they’re angry
 

BringBackMo

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That's life in the Big Leagues, buckeroo. Sorry.
You are 100 percent correct. That IS life in the big leagues. These are the things that happen. And that’s why honest analyses by knowledgeable observers don’t use them as indictments against well-run organizations. I think you know this, but you’re dabbling in this kind of obfuscation because your real frustration is that you don’t like the strategy being implemented by Bloom.
 

Archer1979

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I think they could. If they smacked Baltimore around (which they haven’t done but should) and lost the season series to NY and Tor, and basically split with TB, then that’s about .500.

But this team isn’t winning 95 games.
Wow! You're actually more pessimistic than me!

They could win 95 games. They could win 75 games. I'm reserving judgment until after they've had another round with NY, Toronto, and TB. They could still make the playoffs even if they tank against those three, but that's more of a referendum on how lopsided the AL is this year as there are only two other teams over .500 (Houston and Minn... both of whom the Sox play on the road in the second half), and two that are sniffing around .500 (Cleveland and ChiSox).
 

scottyno

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I mean, it would be slightly more of a sure thing because if they had started 15-15 instead, they'd be in the 1st Wild Card, not the 3rd. Other teams would have to outperform them going forward instead of them needing to outperform others.

15-15 wouldn't have had them winning the division but it wouldn't be NOTHING.
They don't need to outperform any other teams to make the playoffs right now, just match them. But yeah, obviously if they were 5 games better they'd be in better shape, but still wouldn't be a lock.

They're pretty much exactly where they were expected to be at this point in the season, they were projected for mid 80s and they're on pace to win 84, it's just HOW they got to 29-27 that's surprising.
 

scottyno

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Right. But if the team was intentionally punting that was Bloom's choice (or at least he signed off on it when he joined the team, assuming that Henry/Warner made that mandate) and should count in the final column. It's not like he joined the team in August 2020 and spent that offseason digging himself out of a hole that someone put him in.
They weren't intentionally punting until he lost both his aces in spring training and had no way to replace them. They would have been a playoff team with them.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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That's life in the Big Leagues, buckeroo. Sorry.



The Sox were rolling along until September 8 when they had a 76-66 record. They proceeded to lose 12 of their last 19 games, which dumped them into third place. It was around that time that the starting pitching blew up, but prior to that had some really good months (.600 in July and .593 in May) and some good months (.556 and .519 in June and August) that were sandwiched around a crappy April and September. You can look at the 2019 as a glass half-filled or a glass half-empty team. I think that they would have been really good in 2020, but Henry and company disagree.

It's not quite as cut and dry as you make it sound.
They fired Dombrowski September 8.
 

nvalvo

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The comparison with the Dodgers is a really interesting one that warrants more discussion, but that discussion should begin with a clearer assessment of what Los Angeles has actually done under Friedman. I guess I read a lot of allegations that Bloom will "turn the Red Sox into the Rays" or "turn the Red Sox into the Dodgers," and I feel like we need a bit more clarity about what those paths entail. How would we be able to tell?

Here's my first draft at that assessment. Obviously, these moves overlap with things that other clubs do, but I think there's enough here to tell the Dodgers FO apart from, say, the Yankees or the Astros or the Padres or the Giants.
  • The biggest piece of their newfound success has been taking also-ran post-prospect position players from other organizations (Chris Taylor, Justin Turner, Max Muncy) and turning them into good regulars.
  • They have promoted aggressively from within. Smith, Bellinger, Lux, and a whole slew of their pitchers were originally signed by the Dodgers as amateurs.
  • They have let some of their homegrown stars walk in FA: Kenley Jansen, Corey Seager, etc.
  • And they have acquired and extended Mookie Betts at or near market rate, and signed Freddy Freeman in FA.
  • They have often begun the season with extraordinary veteran pitching depth, including collecting injured pitchers expected to become healthy as the season wore on. Back in 2016, they started the season with a rotation of Hyun-Jun Ryu, Brandon McCarthy, Frankie Montas, Brett Anderson, and Mike Bolsinger on the injured list.
  • They have eaten money to move bad contracts out of town. The deal that sent Kemp, Puig, Wood, and Farmer to the Reds for Homer Bailey was probably the best example of this.
  • They have eaten money to facilitate acquiring stars, as when they accepted the back-end of Price's deal to smooth the acquisition of Betts.
  • But they also got indicted (apologies to the lawyers if that's not precisely what happened; please correct me) for violating the FCPA in building the farm system that made a lot of this possible. In short, they were paying bribes and dealing with organized crime in Latin America, and the FO knew it.
  • They have spent a pile of money, but they have done so very differently than, say, the Angels — who spend a ton on FA superstars, but often end up fielding brittle stars-and-scrubs rosters.
What am I missing? What else is distinctive to the Dodgers' approach that we might be able to recognize in Bloom's actions?
 

nattysez

Member
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Sep 30, 2010
8,429
As you mentioned, it seems like the Dodgers are incredibly good at drafting and trading for prospects. The question is whether that's just a run of luck or they have figured something out.

Regarding the question posed by the thread, a glance at the schedule suggests the Sox should continue to win pretty regularly, possibly with a few bumps in the road, until July 4. Starting July 4, they play 14 games in 14 days against Tampa and the MFY before the ASB. That stretch will determine a lot about how they approach the trade deadline.
 

scottyno

late Bloomer
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2008
11,304
Sox are pretty now much back to exactly where the preseason win loss and playoff odds had them, a team that will likely win in the mid 80s, and is a favorite to make the playoffs, but not a prohibitive favorite. It appears that "they are what their record says they are" is fairly correct, but you need to look at the entire record, not just a small sample. I feel fairly confident they won't play the rest of the year at either a .333 or a .750 winning percentage.

It's funny that if they had got to 30-27 in a more "normal" way, instead of clustering all the losses and then all the wins together, very few people would be complaining and many people would see the team in a totally different way.
 

Lose Remerswaal

Experiencing Furry Panic
Lifetime Member
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It's funny that if they had got to 30-27 in a more "normal" way, instead of clustering all the losses and then all the wins together, very few people would be complaining and many people would see the team in a totally different way.
Except about Mookie. And Sale. And Dalbec. And JBJ. And Chaim. And the bench. And the bullpen.
 

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
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Jul 14, 2005
23,672
Miami (oh, Miami!)
The 10 game road trip is now 6-0, despite our AAA lineup last night.

Look what's happening to the required winning percentages, and think about what that means. If this team has to play .555 ball the rest of the season to reach 90 wins - well, that's not a very far fetched thing at all, it is? No matter how stacked the schedule. OTOH, 2-8 would have been a disaster.

This is exactly what they needed to do - boost their total against struggling teams while working their own players out of slumps and letting people get comfortable in roles. (Still technically working on the last two bits.)

If the Sox become miraculously red-hot (e.g., "Story - The Sequel") and go 10-0, they'll stand at 34-27, and a 90 win target (likely a solid postseason chance) in the remaining 101 games would require 56 wins (.554):
10-0 - .554
9-1 - .564
8-2 - .574
7-3 - .584
6-4 - .594
5-5 - .604
4-6 - .614
3-7 - .624
2-8 - .634
1-9 - .644
0-10 - .654


This is the set for the more modest 87 win target, which is maybe? a 50% chance of making the postseason. Hard to factor as more teams will be trying to win late in the season:
10-0 - .525
9-1 - .535
8-2 - .545
7-3 - .555
6-4 - .564
5-5 - .574
4-6 - .584
3-7 - .594
2-8 - .604
1-9 - .614
0-10 - .624
 

cornwalls@6

Less observant than others
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
6,247
from the wilds of western ma
The 10 game road trip is now 6-0, despite our AAA lineup last night.

Look what's happening to the required winning percentages, and think about what that means. If this team has to play .555 ball the rest of the season to reach 90 wins - well, that's not a very far fetched thing at all, it is? No matter how stacked the schedule. OTOH, 2-8 would have been a disaster.

This is exactly what they needed to do - boost their total against struggling teams while working their own players out of slumps and letting people get comfortable in roles. (Still technically working on the last two bits.)
Exactly, stock-piling margin for error wins, for when they play their toughest stretches the rest of the way. If they can get reasonably good performance from Sale and Paxton at some point, and are in position to make an acquisition or 2 along on the way(pen, maybe an outfielder), that .555 looks even more do-able. I don't think it's any way pie in the sky fan-boyism to be pretty optimistic that this club is settling back into what many of us projected them to be. A mid-80s to low 90s win total, and a definite contender for post season play.
 

Ganthem

a ray of sunshine
SoSH Member
Apr 7, 2022
914
I would say it is time to be cautiously optimistic. If the Sox have a better hold on one of the WC spots in a month then it is time to be very optimistic. Currently they are playing really well, but the bullpen is a mess. Also it is unclear what offense we are getting. Last year the offense was either on fire or very cold. There seemed to be no middle ground. If the Sox bats go to sleep for a few weeks then that could change the picture dramatically. The last two games have been some of the best baseball all season. That being said, more often then not the Sox are going to lose if they can only score one run.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

Throw Momma From the Train
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May 20, 2003
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Deep inside Muppet Labs
Bullpen roles:

It appears that Cora has moved towards using Schreiber as his setup guy and Strahm as his closer. If those roles are settled, I think that will help the rest of the pen so that the players can better mentally prepare themselves for the game situation. I know that in a perfect world these guys should be fine with being mixed and matched and used in various roles, but human nature being what it is I have long thought that for the regular season you're better off just giving them roles and sticking with that.