Came here to post Baynes... Probably nothing left but if we're planning on just getting a big body while we wait for buyouts and trade candidates I'd be happy with him over some of the other toasty guys
Just think of it like a year off, like Horford had in OKC!
Great to see him in good form. Giddey looks like he could be Aron's kid.
I've been as critical as anyone on this board about Wyc spending, and even I think this is unreasonable.I know there has been a lot of talk about the luxury tax implications of using the TPE, and how - for every dollar spent now -the Cs will be penalized multiple times that amount in taxes. That said, the Cs are currently the favorite to win the championship, and that is the type of rare opportunity that I can’t imagine Wyc wants to squander. Meanwhile they have two key members of their rotation - Timelord and Al- who will almost certainly be restricted due to age and injury risk who are currently backed up by a guy who probably wouldn’t even be picked up if the Cs put him on waivers (Luke Kornet). This is an unacceptable amount of risk, and considering how much of an opportunity this season represents, the Cs ownership deserves criticism if it’s okay with that gamble.
Making this even more frustrating is that good players are available using the TPE. In particular, Jacob Poetl, seems ideal, as he is almost certainly obtainable (a protected first, at most, almost certainly gets it done) and a great match, both in the short and long term for the Cs.
After all, this Cs team is built on defense, and, in particular, is most dominant when TL’s rim protection is added to an already stifling perimeter defense. I think we all saw that last year, that when TL and Al were both on the bench the difference was huge, and that’s when they had Theis who was capable of being effective in the TL role against some offenses. Are the Cs really going to try to have Kornet fill that roll? Really? Or bring in a reclamation project like Baynes? All when a defensive stud in his prime like Poetl is readily available? Further, wouldn’t someone like Poetl also be good as an Al replacement long term? Also, even though the Cs are presumably looking for a 3rd big, at the end of the year would it really be shocking if that “3rd big” played more than either an aging Al or a chronically hurt TL? They need someone solid in that roll, and if Wyc isn’t going to be okay with that because of the tax he needs to be criticized accordingly. Teams shouldn’t be expected to take on huge tax burdens every year, but you don’t want to risk squandering a championship to avoid a tax bill..
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sportingnews.com/us/amp/nba/news/hidden-gems-jakob-poeltl-is-the-best-center-that-nobodys-talking-about/1acr9r7wz5mg913hug0jnr42sk
I think it depends on how risky you feel the current roster is. With the addition of Brogdon, the Cs have an impressive array of young, big wings and PGs that all play strong defense, and, except for Brogdon, have little to no durability concerns. Yet, the team's defense first approach also requires matching those players with a defensive-minded front court. Right now, that requires having either one or both of Robert Williams or Al Horford on the floor, and that puts a tremendous amount of pressure on the two players (outside of Brogdon) that are the two biggest injury/age-related decline concerns on the roster.I've been as critical as anyone on this board about Wyc spending, and even I think this is unreasonable.
Adding Poeltl would add around 50M in salary + tax next season.
That's asking way too much in my opinion.
And that's before even getting into would the Spurs take your protected first (at most) in 2025 at the earliest, or if it's reasonable to expect Poeltl to be happy going into next season as a backup center at 27 years old and in a contract year when he's good enough to be a solid starter.
Assuming the Celtics finish this season with their payroll around where it is now (including Gallinari), ownership has done more than enough.
The entirety of the league pays far below what the Warriors pay regularly, they are not a sustainable model for anyone else. The Warriors both have very rich owners, and bring in ridiculous revenue, in part because they absolutely juiced the hell out of their ticket prices (average Warriors ticket is 3x what the average Celtics ticket is).I think it depends on how risky you feel the current roster is. With the addition of Brogdon, the Cs have an impressive array of young, big wings and PGs that all play strong defense, and, except for Brogdon, have little to no durability concerns. Yet, the team's defense first approach also requires matching those players with a defensive-minded front court. Right now, that requires having either one or both of Robert Williams or Al Horford on the floor, and that puts a tremendous amount of pressure on the two players (outside of Brogdon) that are the two biggest injury/age-related decline concerns on the roster.
It's already been reported that the Cs will not have Al play the second game of a back-to-back next year and that makes sense, but wouldn't it also make sense to sit TL in these situations? After all, does anyone really think there won't be an extended stretch where TL sits next year? Heck, am I the only one who fears that there is an uncomfortably reasonable chance that TL may not not even be available for next year's playoffs? What happens to the team's defensive rating when Danilo Gallinari (or Luke Kornet) ends up taking much of the minutes we assumed were going to to TL? I just don't think these are acceptable risks, especially not in a world where a 27-year old defensive beast like Jacob Poetl is available on the trade market. If he could be acquired for assets that don't damage the team's rotation (Pritchard and a 1st?) don't you have to make that trade? This may be the only way to not only protect against losing Al or TL, but also prevent the team from being in that situation in the first place (by allowing Udoka to give plenty of rest to both of them). If, in the end, a relatively predictable scenario emerges, where one or both of TL ad AH aren't available the team ends up relying too heavily on Gallinari at the C, would it shock anyone if that ends up the difference between a championship title and a loss in the EC Finals? All so that they ownership doesn't have to pay a tax that is far below what the Warriors pay regularly?
Poeltl would be a great addition but like CD/Pickle noted above too costly. Is the delta between JP and a center from the buyout market enough to drop an additional $45-50M?I think it depends on how risky you feel the current roster is. With the addition of Brogdon, the Cs have an impressive array of young, big wings and PGs that all play strong defense, and, except for Brogdon, have little to no durability concerns. Yet, the team's defense first approach also requires matching those players with a defensive-minded front court. Right now, that requires having either one or both of Robert Williams or Al Horford on the floor, and that puts a tremendous amount of pressure on the two players (outside of Brogdon) that are the two biggest injury/age-related decline concerns on the roster.
It's already been reported that the Cs will not have Al play the second game of a back-to-back next year and that makes sense, but wouldn't it also make sense to sit TL in these situations? After all, does anyone really think there won't be an extended stretch where TL sits next year? Heck, am I the only one who fears that there is an uncomfortably reasonable chance that TL may not not even be available for next year's playoffs? What happens to the team's defensive rating when Danilo Gallinari (or Luke Kornet) ends up taking much of the minutes we assumed were going to to TL? I just don't think these are acceptable risks, especially not in a world where a 27-year old defensive beast like Jacob Poetl is available on the trade market. If he could be acquired for assets that don't damage the team's rotation (Pritchard and a 1st?) don't you have to make that trade? This may be the only way to not only protect against losing Al or TL, but also prevent the team from being in that situation in the first place (by allowing Udoka to give plenty of rest to both of them). If, in the end, a relatively predictable scenario emerges, where one or both of TL ad AH aren't available and the team ends up relying too heavily on Gallinari at the C, would it shock anyone if that ends up the difference between a championship title and a loss in the EC Finals? All so that they ownership doesn't have to pay a tax that is far below what the Warriors pay regularly?
Yeah, and I don't think that White is worth it. Basically don't think that Grant is worth it either, as he's both big and wing depth. PP is redundant, but he doesn't offset enough of that big chunk to make it not a big chunk.Poeltl would be a great addition but like CD/Pickle noted above too costly. Is the delta between JP and a center from the buyout market enough to drop an additional $45-50M?
If you wanted to build something around White for Poeltl + wing/PG (or include a 3rd team) you could make the $$$ work. The Spurs could even take on a bit of money, which would free up Brad to use their smaller TPEs in Jan/Feb
BTW I'm not advocating this, just showing there is a cost in talent by adding Poeltl now. I'd rather keep White and be patient, decent vet min players will shake out
The enormous difference was that Horford was still an NBA player on the back nine of his prime. If Baynes wasn’t injured he’d have spent last season playing the back nine.Just think of it like a year off, like Horford had in OKC!
The hospital stay was driven by a fall/spinal cord injury.The enormous difference was that Horford was still an NBA player on the back nine of his prime. If Baynes wasn’t injured he’d have spent last season playing the back nine.
Yes, I was being extremely facetious.The enormous difference was that Horford was still an NBA player on the back nine of his prime. If Baynes wasn’t injured he’d have spent last season playing the back nine.
The only real utility I can see to Poeltl is taking him in short term to be dumped into someone else’s cap space/TPE later in order to reset the Fournier TPE.Yeah, and I don't think that White is worth it. Basically don't think that Grant is worth it either, as he's both big and wing depth. PP is redundant, but he doesn't offset enough of that big chunk to make it not a big chunk.
I like Poeltl, but he's not a 50MM needle-mover. A guy like that may become available somehow still, and that's Brad's problem to sell to ownership. Tough to go to the mat for Poeltl, even though he's a nice player.
With the 2023 first round pick already traded in the Brogdon deal, I don’t see Stevens using more draft capital out to 2025 (or beyond) to acquire a third big or extended the TPE.The only real utility I can see to Poeltl is taking him in short term to be dumped into someone else’s cap space/TPE later in order to reset the Fournier TPE.
I think the primary issue is the tax.With the 2023 first round pick already traded in the Brogdon deal, I don’t see Stevens using more draft capital out to 2025 (or beyond) to acquire a third big or extended the TPE.
It’s not about the value of a 2025 1st round pick (a pick that most likely won’t even be good) as much as it is the opportunity cost of locking up draft picks (including ‘24 and ‘26) that could be used to grease other trades (like Horford, White, Brogdon, etc.).I think the primary issue is the tax.
The Cs are in win now mode, and have a legitimate chance at a championship. I don't think a 2025 1st round pick (a pick that most likely won't even be good) has enough value to prevent the Cs from maximizing their chances of a title
It's also important to remember that Poetl is young enough that he could provide long term value as well, as - if the Cs made a move for him- he'd be the likely candidate to become the Al Horford replacement this team will eventually need.
Sadly, no amount of magic is going to help Collins’ $23.5M contract fit into a $17.1M traded player exception.I do believe they will use it if magic happens----say, for example, John Collins magically needs a home without taking salary back I do think Celts would swallow the cost and figure it out later (and in spite of above comments on picks, I'd throw one in for that!) I don't expect that to be how this all plays out.
Ha, that's funny.Sadly, no amount of magic is going to help Collins’ $23.5M contract fit into a $17.1M traded player exception.
Yes, it's called the minimum salary exception (see #22 in CBA FAQs). Team pays equivalent to 2-year minimum salary and for players who have more than 2 years' experience, the league reimburses the team for the difference. It's to incentivize teams to sign vets.I read somewhere that vet minimum contracts count the same against the CAP/tax no matter what the price (they vary in price due to years in the NBA)
If the budget is unlimited then Poeltl is the player to target...View: https://twitter.com/GwashburnGlobe/status/1546891255560318978?s=20&t=-2QHpyLBeHG33M7w8eKhPA
Stevens says they plan to add another big man.
Any expected buyout options you're looking forward to? Hard to predict what will be available but maybe Derrick Favors?If the budget is unlimited then Poeltl is the player to target...
still don't completely buy they will spend more TAX $$$. Whiteside, on vet min, is the best option for now
expect slightly better options than Hassan during the buyout window mid-season
I think Poeltl is a combination of cost (that’s a hell of a lot of money for a backup center), cost in a trade, and then willingness to accept a role. He doesn’t seem like a great fit for what they’re looking for. As crazy as it is to say I honestly think he’s probably overqualified.If the budget is unlimited then Poeltl is the player to target...
still don't buy the "unlimited budget" stuff and believe Whiteside is the best option for now
expect slightly better options than Hassan during the buyout window mid-season
not a starter but unfortunately TL is fragile and will need to be handled with care.I think Poeltl is a combination of cost (that’s a hell of a lot of money for a backup center), cost in a trade, and then willingness to accept a role. He doesn’t seem like a great fit for what they’re looking for. As crazy as it is to say I honestly think he’s probably overqualified.
The ideal (for me) would be someone like Steven Adams. Adams himself would be perfect but unfortunately his contract is prohibitive. But that player archetype. Good defender, good rebounder, doesn’t need the ball, and is content with any sort of role.
Of course, it’s much easier to describe what you are looking for than actually going out, finding and acquiring them
Green light to spend whatever it takes "if it's the right deal" seems right to me....If the budget is unlimited then Poeltl is the player to target...
still don't completely buy they will spend more TAX $$$. Whiteside, on vet min, is the best option for now
expect slightly better options than Hassan during the buyout window mid-season
mid-season underperforming teams and a tanker thatAny expected buyout options you're looking forward to? Hard to predict what will be available but maybe Derrick Favors?
White/Grant+ for Collins works...extra $2.3MGreen light to spend whatever it takes "if it's the right deal" seems right to me....
Green light to add a bench big at $7-9M a year... maybe not.
Green light to add salary in a trade that upgrades a top rotation spot... yep.
So a Poetl trade might not be where they spend, but if there was a deal that turned White or Grant into a prime age (or younger) top end PF option that slid Al to the bench... sure they'll go deeper into the tax for that.
I'm a little surprised White and Brogdon are in the same tier. Also a little surprised Smart is in a higher tier than Brogdon.Tier 4B (60-84): Derrick White and Malcolm Brogdon
Ime likes his 2 bigs though, so a 3rd big could be part of a 3 man rotation rather than just a bench big. Combine that with Tatum and Gallinari and you don't need much else up front. Might make GW a little superfluous.Green light to spend whatever it takes "if it's the right deal" seems right to me....
Green light to add a bench big at $7-9M a year... maybe not.
Green light to add salary in a trade that upgrades a top rotation spot... yep.
So a Poetl trade might not be where they spend, but if there was a deal that turned White or Grant into a prime age (or younger) top end PF option that slid Al to the bench... sure they'll go deeper into the tax for that.
Why? Both Smart and White are much better defenders than Brogdon and neither is a bad offensive player, although neither is particularly good on that end. The ranking seem about right and there’s probably a better case for Smart or Horford being in the next tier up (I’m not making this case) than that Brogdon or White are too low. Reliability is also a part of this ranking, and Brogdon’s health issues hurt his ranking (healthy he has a case for the 4A tier, which he was in the prior 2 years, although it’s pretty much impossible to see him higher than that). There’s a reasonable argument White should be 5A, where he was the last couple years, and it is a bit harder to understand why he has gone up in rankings after a bad season.I'm a little surprised White and Brogdon are in the same tier. Also a little surprised Smart is in a higher tier than Brogdon.
Plus they are Seth Partnow rankings. Others may come up with different tiering based on other criteria. Partnow is sharp as hell but I suspect that he would not refer to this as a precise exercise. And in the end, even if the tiering is bang on, we all know that it may mean absolutely nothing in terms of wins.Why? Both Smart and White are much better defenders than Brogdon and neither is a bad offensive player, although neither is particularly good on that end. The ranking seem about right and there’s probably a better case for Smart or Horford being in the next tier up (I’m not making this case) than that Brogdon or White are too low. Reliability is also a part of this ranking, and Brogdon’s health issues hurt his ranking (healthy he has a case for the 4A tier, which he was in the prior 2 years, although it’s pretty much impossible to see him higher than that). There’s a reasonable argument White should be 5A, where he was the last couple years, and it is a bit harder to understand why he has gone up in rankings after a bad season.
I like his list, but it's really gutsy. I'd expect him to get a bunch of criticismI'm a little surprised White and Brogdon are in the same tier. Also a little surprised Smart is in a higher tier than Brogdon.
The biggest omission to me is that he apparently won’t have Wendell Carter as one of his top 125 players (I highly doubt he will be top 40). To me that’s absolutely fucking nuts. Is there a single person that would not trade Grant Williams for Wendell Carter?I like his list, but it's really gutsy. I'd expect him to get a bunch of criticism
Tier 5 85-125. He has RJ Barrett and Julius Randle as 5A.
He also has Immanuel Quickley and Quentin Grimes at 5A. That's ballsy. I like Grimes/Quickley a lot & thought the Brunson move was unnecessary. Putting those two in there will raise eyebrows league-wide
His mom?The biggest omission to me is that he apparently won’t have Wendell Carter as one of his top 125 players (I highly doubt he will be top 40). To me that’s absolutely fucking nuts. Is there a single person that would not trade Grant Williams for Wendell Carter?
Grimes in there after playing 1/2 season, averaging 6 ppg and being considered a reach in the late first round is kind of funny.The biggest omission to me is that he apparently won’t have Wendell Carter as one of his top 125 players (I highly doubt he will be top 40). To me that’s absolutely fucking nuts. Is there a single person that would not trade Grant Williams for Wendell Carter?
Someone posted DARKO ratings for Smart, Brogdon, White, that, to me, fit with those rankings.I'm a little surprised White and Brogdon are in the same tier. Also a little surprised Smart is in a higher tier than Brogdon.
Let's make it happen (sorry Grant's mom).The biggest omission to me is that he apparently won’t have Wendell Carter as one of his top 125 players (I highly doubt he will be top 40). To me that’s absolutely fucking nuts. Is there a single person that would not trade Grant Williams for Wendell Carter?