I'm not sure if this is too relevant to the Lillard arguments...the player option is for $63.3m in '26/'27 & based on cap rules, it is capped at 35% of the cap in that year - meaning that it is only worth $63.3m if the cap is at $180.9m. The cap this year is $123.7m. Are you expecting the new tv deal to increase the cap so much that it will be significantly higher than $180.9m per season in 4 years? That's a 46% increase.
There is some precedent for that if you look especially as right around the last tv deal, so I guess it's possible, but it seems unlikely that it's going to increase by so much more than 46% over the next 4 years for it not to be a very large chunk of the cap for that year. Even if we match the last largest 4-year increase after the previous deal, the cap would be $198m, of which Lillard's deal would still be 32%.
Year |
Salary Cap |
2022 Dollars |
Year-to-Year Increase |
4-year Increase |
1984-85 |
$3,600,000 |
$9,793,069 |
N/A |
N/A |
1985-86 |
$4,233,000 |
$11,298,280 |
17.58% |
N/A |
1986-87 |
$4,945,000 |
$12,734,751 |
16.82% |
N/A |
1987-88 |
$6,164,000 |
$15,248,702 |
24.65% |
71.22% |
1988-89 |
$7,232,000 |
$17,069,461 |
17.33% |
70.85% |
1989-90 |
$9,802,000 |
$21,950,887 |
35.54% |
98.22% |
1990-91 |
$11,871,000 |
$25,499,592 |
21.11% |
92.59% |
1991-92 |
$12,500,000 |
$26,061,180 |
5.30% |
72.84% |
1992-93 |
$14,000,000 |
$28,354,756 |
12.00% |
42.83% |
1993-94 |
$15,175,000 |
$29,954,782 |
8.39% |
27.83% |
1994-95 |
$15,964,000 |
$30,651,995 |
5.20% |
27.71% |
1995-96 |
$23,000,000 |
$42,906,004 |
44.07% |
64.29% |
1996-97 |
$24,363,000 |
$44,402,880 |
5.93% |
60.55% |
1997-98 |
$26,900,000 |
$48,285,994 |
10.41% |
68.50% |
1998-99 |
$30,000,000 |
$52,688,773 |
11.52% |
30.43% |
1999-00 |
$34,000,000 |
$57,763,864 |
13.33% |
39.56% |
2000-01 |
$35,500,000 |
$58,657,395 |
4.41% |
31.97% |
2001-02 |
$42,500,000 |
$69,132,284 |
19.72% |
41.67% |
2002-03 |
$40,271,000 |
$64,048,956 |
-5.24% |
18.44% |
2003-04 |
$43,840,000 |
$67,907,202 |
8.86% |
23.49% |
2004-05 |
$43,870,000 |
$65,719,039 |
0.07% |
3.22% |
2005-06 |
$49,500,000 |
$71,839,551 |
12.83% |
22.92% |
2006-07 |
$53,135,000 |
$74,973,988 |
7.34% |
21.20% |
2007-08 |
$55,630,000 |
$75,594,893 |
4.70% |
26.81% |
2008-09 |
$58,680,000 |
$80,023,973 |
5.48% |
18.55% |
2009-10 |
$57,700,000 |
$77,414,680 |
-1.67% |
8.59% |
2010-11 |
$58,044,000 |
$75,491,545 |
0.60% |
4.34% |
2011-12 |
$58,044,000 |
$73,970,553 |
0.00% |
-1.08% |
2012-13 |
$58,044,000 |
$72,903,264 |
0.00% |
0.60% |
2013-14 |
$58,679,000 |
$72,519,787 |
1.09% |
1.09% |
2014-15 |
$63,065,000 |
$77,841,847 |
7.47% |
8.65% |
2015-16 |
$70,000,000 |
$85,323,721 |
11.00% |
20.60% |
2016-17 |
$94,143,000 |
$112,368,348 |
34.49% |
60.44% |
2017-18 |
$99,093,000 |
$115,455,294 |
5.26% |
57.13% |
2018-19 |
$101,869,000 |
$116,573,245 |
2.80% |
45.53% |
2019-20 |
$109,140,000 |
$123,384,194 |
7.14% |
15.93% |
2020-21 |
$109,140,000 |
$117,838,496 |
0.00% |
10.14% |
2021-22 |
$112,414,000 |
$112,414,000 |
3.00% |
10.35% |
2022-23 |
$123,655,000 |
10.00% |
13.30% |
I looked into that article more carefully (& tried to find anything that was published since then, which seems impossible), & it seems pretty clear that those numbers come from the NBA, but even if they come to fruition, the NBA projected their revenue at about $10b last year, & that would be an increase of around $5b per year, which is a 50% increase. So the numbers seem fairly in line with Lillard still costing at least 30% of the cap in that option year. I could be missing something, but if that's the best case scenario, that's still not a ton of upside (if the purpose of doing the extension now is financial benefit for the team in the future). Especially since there are still a couple more years before the tv contract even expires, & Lillard was already under contract for 3 more years. & even if that $63.3m becomes not ridiculously excessive somehow...Lillard can still decline the option.