Pretty surprised to see someone mention Heyman in anything Red Sox related in here, much less from The Post. It comes off as a hit piece to try and ease the MFY fanbase about the potential departure of Judge.
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/07/18/sports/rafael-devers-red-sox-future/?event=event25Yet his free agency following the 2023 season is coming ever closer, ever more sharply into view. Particularly after conversations between Devers and the team about a long-term deal this spring never came close to an agreement.
According to a major league source familiar with the talks, the Red Sox identified Matt Olson’s eight-year, $168 million extension with Atlanta as a basis for discussions — citing the likelihood that Devers would spend much of the contract either at first base or designated hitter.
Devers aimed much higher, convinced in his ability to stay at third for the immediate future (an outlook that has been validated by his solid glove work this year) while making the case that his offense would make him immensely valuable even if he eventually moves to first or DH. The canyon-sized gap between the sides — Jeff Passan of ESPN reported it was in excess of $100 million — made clear that there was little common ground.
Still, they acknowledged that Devers was doing everything he could to defy those estimates, and that few expected Seager to get $325 million from the Rangers.
“It only takes one team,” noted one of the evaluators.
The fact that Nationals star Juan Soto — this generation’s Ted Williams — reportedly turned down a 15-year, $440 million proposal from Washington only strengthens Devers’s position. But what constitutes a $300 million player?
Zack Scott, founder and CEO of Four Rings Sports Solutions, was involved in multiple contract discussions of players seeking more than $300 million. As a Red Sox executive, he was part of the Mookie Betts discussions in the spring of 2019. Scott was the Mets’ general manager when New York signed shortstop Lindor to a 10-year, $341 million extension.
While he did not talk specifically about either negotiation, he identified a few checkboxes for megacontracts.
More at the above linkWhen the Sox talked with Betts in 2019, a host of long-term deals limited the team’s flexibility and the farm system had no regulars on the immediate horizon. Now, with only Trevor Story and Garrett Whitlock signed beyond 2023 (assuming that Xander Bogaerts opts out), the Sox don’t confront the same constraints.
Devers’s peers cited other factors in identifying $300 million players. Cole immediately identified durability. Since 2019, Devers ranks ninth in the big leagues in games played with 455. He plays hurt and he produces through injury.
Manny Ramirez was a much much better player when he signed than Devers was before this year. Before this year Matt Olson was also a better player than Devers, so if they really did see Devers as not having long at 3rd base then it seems like a pretty decent starting point.I know there are all kinds of agendas associated with discussions like this and who knows what is true but…even as a starting offer, the Manny Ramirez contract 20 years and many fewer steroids later is a bad look. It’s a blatantly unserious offer.
But who knows. A major league source could just as soon be an opposing FO source who wants to weaken the Sox.
If I am a 3B who has never played so much as an out at 1B through 5 seasons, I consider it unserious to offer me a contract as if I am already a 1B.Manny Ramirez was a much much better player when he signed than Devers was before this year. Before this year Matt Olson was also a better player than Devers, so if they really did see Devers as not having long at 3rd base then it seems like a pretty decent starting point.
Keep in mind, before this year Devers best season ever was a 133 ops+ with terrible defense.
Apropos of nothing related to this thread, I love this.
Olson 2017-2021: 18.4 bwarIf I am a 3B who has never played so much as an out at 1B through 5 seasons, I consider it unserious to offer me a contract as if I am already a 1B.
The obvious difference here is that those are Olson’s age 23-27 years compared to Devers 20-24.Olson 2017-2021: 18.4 bwar
Devers 2017-2021: 10.7 bwar
That's without even factoring in that if Devers was a 1b his war would be even lower because of positional adjustments. So I don't see where the unserious part comes in when Olson was a much better player.
25 year old Devers was projected to be a 4 win player this year and didn't show any signs that his defense was getting better.The obvious difference here is that those are Olson’s age 23-27 years compared to Devers 20-24.
We can argue relative value all we want but the simple reality is that 8/168 doesn’t even come close to getting Devers to agree to a contract extension 1 year before he hits FA. I’m not sure that’s an insultingly low offer but it’s an offer with a 0% chance of being accepted, especially given how he’s hit this year, so what’s the point?Hey, we don’t think you will be playing 3b much longer because you aren’t very good at it is probably technically true but not a great way to start negotiations. Olson is three years older than Devers and by all accounts, took less than market value. Not a great comp.
Things can change quickly, but doesn’t seem like the organization is in a great spot with its two best players, guys who have been here their entire careers. Not a great look.
They offered it before how he's hit this year with 2 years before free agency. Obviously when they talk extension again this offseason it won't be 8-168.We can argue relative value all we want but the simple reality is that 8/168 doesn’t even come close to getting Devers to agree to a contract extension 1 year before he hits FA. I’m not sure that’s an insultingly low offer but it’s an offer with a 0% chance of being accepted, especially given how he’s hit this year, so what’s the point?
If the Sox don’t see Devers as a 3B for very much longer, they should just trade him because he ain’t signing for Olson 1B money. Someone will go north of $200+ for him and I hope it’s us. He’s just scratched the surface of what he’s going to be, IMO.
Sorry, misread the timing of that offer. Agree that 8/168 was a reasonable place to start but still not one I would have expected him to accept or even seriously consider. Impossible to know what Devers’ acceptable amount would have been this spring. May not be materially different than how he currently values himself. But who knows. This will be an interesting situation to follow. If the Sox miss the playoffs and let X go and start 2023 in a tenuous spot with Devers, that won’t be a great look. But we’ll see what Chaim can do here.They offered it before how he's hit this year with 2 years before free agency. Obviously when they talk extension again this offseason it won't be 8-168.
fwar and bwar have very different numbers for fielding on both Devers and Olson. They're worth the exact amount of war from 2018-2021 on fangraphs. And honestly - I think 95% of neutral fans take Devers.Olson 2017-2021: 18.4 bwar
Devers 2017-2021: 10.7 bwar
That's without even factoring in that if Devers was a 1b his war would be even lower because of positional adjustments. So I don't see where the unserious part comes in when Olson was a much better player.
Or it's a "we want to see you have a superstar year before we pay you like a superstar" offer.fwar and bwar have very different numbers for fielding on both Devers and Olson. They're worth the exact amount of war from 2018-2021 on fangraphs. And honestly - I think 95% of neutral fans take Devers.
And yea -- that offer is a "we don't really intend on signing you long term" offer. Lester / Mookie redux. This team seems to always prefer the hypothetical or cost controlled player they don't have over the player they do.
You must be very good at negotiating.That offer is a complete and utter joke and a slap in the face. If that’s what they start with, there’s no point in a counter.
What team signed who after Betts was traded? There havent been any large extensions made by the Sox in that time frame. Even if you meant to refer to Story as well, that is only one and I think its hard to qualify it as "huge".Or it's a "we want to see you have a superstar year before we pay you like a superstar" offer.
After Mookie turned down their offer which in the long run may have ended up making him more than the deal he eventually agreed to they signed 2 other guys to huge extensions.
ChUMB (Chuckled under my breath)You must be very good at negotiating.
After hearing that number, there wouldn’t be much of a negotiation and you know it.You must be very good at negotiating.
Like I said, you seem to be very experienced in this area.After hearing that number, there wouldn’t be much of a negotiation and you know it.
It makes me a little sad thinking about an amazing team, especially with the inconsistent team the Sox are fielding right now.Apropos of nothing related to this thread, I love this.
They didn't extend X or Sale until after Betts had turned down their $300m extension offer which included buying out 2 arb years.What team signed who after Betts was traded? There havent been any large extensions made by the Sox in that time frame. Even if you meant to refer to Story as well, that is only one and I think its hard to qualify it as "huge".
So do you think this is an acceptable starting point?Like I said, you seem to be very experienced in this area.
Forget the dollars, does anyone think that the Red Sox are willing to commit to a 12 year contract for anyone? Signing a 12 year contract can greatly limit the flexibility that the Red Sox seem to value right now. The reality is that the Dodgers owner doesn’t really care about money, so he is probably less worried about Mookie’s likely decline in the final third of that contract especially if Mookie helps the Dodgers win multiple championships.Chris Gasper interviewed Mookie this week. This is what Mookie had to say w/r/t the Sox dealings in contract negotiations. This may ring true for Devers after what Speier reported.
“After being dealt to the Dodgers in February of 2020, Betts signed a 12-year, $365 million extension. There’s an assumption he gave LA a pandemic discount, especially because $115 million of his Dodger green is deferred, set for delivery Bobby Bonilla-style between 2033 and 2044.
I asked Mookie if he would’ve taken that contract to stay with the Sox. Anger management class sign-ups might be about to skyrocket in Massachusetts.
“Absolutely, I just didn’t get it,” said Betts without hesitation. “That’s the argument. I didn’t get it, so that’s why I am where I am.”
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/07/18/sports/la-mookie-betts-looms-cautionary-tale-what-future-holds-red-sox-their-unsigned-homegrown-stars/
He should probably take an econ class then. With that much deferred, plus the state tax difference, plus the guarantee that he won't sign another meaningful contract after this vs the chance that he could have after the Sox offer, he absolutely left money on the table.Chris Gasper interviewed Mookie this week. This is what Mookie had to say w/r/t the Sox dealings in contract negotiations. This may ring true for Devers after what Speier reported.
“After being dealt to the Dodgers in February of 2020, Betts signed a 12-year, $365 million extension. There’s an assumption he gave LA a pandemic discount, especially because $115 million of his Dodger green is deferred, set for delivery Bobby Bonilla-style between 2033 and 2044.
I asked Mookie if he would’ve taken that contract to stay with the Sox. Anger management class sign-ups might be about to skyrocket in Massachusetts.
“Absolutely, I just didn’t get it,” said Betts without hesitation. “That’s the argument. I didn’t get it, so that’s why I am where I am.”
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/07/18/sports/la-mookie-betts-looms-cautionary-tale-what-future-holds-red-sox-their-unsigned-homegrown-stars/
Ok, you're basing it off the pre-2019 season offer that was turned down , It wasnt particularly clear that was what you were referring to.They didn't extend X or Sale until after Betts had turned down their $300m extension offer which included buying out 2 arb years.
Not for a guy like Mookie in his late 20’s (at the time) but maybe for a younger star like Soto, Acuna, etc.Forget the dollars, does anyone think that the Red Sox are willing to commit to a 12 year contract for anyone? Signing a 12 year contract can greatly limit the flexibility that the Red Sox seem to value right now. The reality is that the Dodgers owner doesn’t really care about money, so he is probably less worried about Mookie’s likely decline in the final third of that contract especially if Mookie helps the Dodgers win multiple championships.
Do you think the Sox's offer, whatever the fuck it is, actually changes anything in Devers' brain about what he thinks he's prepared to sign for, whatever the fuck that is?So do you think this is an acceptable starting point?
Thats 100% bullshit and everyone knows it. And even redsox stats is calling betts out on thatChris Gasper interviewed Mookie this week. This is what Mookie had to say w/r/t the Sox dealings in contract negotiations. This may ring true for Devers after what Speier reported.
“After being dealt to the Dodgers in February of 2020, Betts signed a 12-year, $365 million extension. There’s an assumption he gave LA a pandemic discount, especially because $115 million of his Dodger green is deferred, set for delivery Bobby Bonilla-style between 2033 and 2044.
I asked Mookie if he would’ve taken that contract to stay with the Sox. Anger management class sign-ups might be about to skyrocket in Massachusetts.
“Absolutely, I just didn’t get it,” said Betts without hesitation. “That’s the argument. I didn’t get it, so that’s why I am where I am.”
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/07/18/sports/la-mookie-betts-looms-cautionary-tale-what-future-holds-red-sox-their-unsigned-homegrown-stars/
Flexibility is great to have, but isn’t a young homegrown star like Devers someone you’d want to extend for to keep?Forget the dollars, does anyone think that the Red Sox are willing to commit to a 12 year contract for anyone? Signing a 12 year contract can greatly limit the flexibility that the Red Sox seem to value right now. The reality is that the Dodgers owner doesn’t really care about money, so he is probably less worried about Mookie’s likely decline in the final third of that contract especially if Mookie helps the Dodgers win multiple championships.
What was 2019?Or it's a "we want to see you have a superstar year before we pay you like a superstar" offer.
Of course it doesn’t, but that reported number is so low that if I were Devers I’d question how serious they are in trying to keep me.Do you think the Sox's offer, whatever the fuck it is, actually changes anything in Devers' brain about what he thinks he's prepared to sign for, whatever the fuck that is?
Which is supposedly what happened with Bogaerts (and Lester way back when, right?).Of course it doesn’t, but that reported number is so low that if I were Devers I’d question how serious they are in trying to keep me.
This year hadn't happened at the time of the negotiations so it isn't remotely relevant. Of course if he finishes out this year the way he started it's a superstar year.What was 2019?
What is this year?
So, that prevents you from making an offer or something?Of course it doesn’t, but that reported number is so low that if I were Devers I’d question how serious they are in trying to keep me.
Devers side asking for 8-268+, based on the articles reference that they were 100+ apart, is an even less serious offer than you seem to think 8-168 was.Of course it doesn’t, but that reported number is so low that if I were Devers I’d question how serious they are in trying to keep me.
WAs it reported anywhere that it was the same 8 years? Most of the rumors that were swirling around during the offseason were 10+ year deals so I think you're being a bit disingenuous by stating that this was the ask.Devers side asking for 8-268+, based on the articles reference that they were 100+ apart, is an even less serious offer than you seem to think 8-168 was.
How so? Seager got 10/325. Machado got 10/300. Rendon got 7/245. Cano got 10/240. Arenado got 8/260. Lindor got 10/341. All those guys were older than Devers- it’s rare that a guy that young hits FA.Devers side asking for 8-268+, based on the articles reference that they were 100+ apart, is an even less serious offer than you seem to think 8-168 was.
It’s also a tool the agent can use to drive a wedge between the player and the team. I suspect the 1/30 extension to X was leaked to do exactly this.Of course it doesn’t, but that reported number is so low that if I were Devers I’d question how serious they are in trying to keep me.
All of those guys were much better players than 2021 Devers was. Also most didn't include any arb years at all and only 1 included a single arb year.How so? Seager got 10/325. Machado for 10/300. Rendon for 7/245. Cano got 10/240. Arenado got 8/260. Lindor got 10/341. All those guys were older than Devers- it’s rare that a guy that young hits FA.
It was always going to be an 8-12 year deal with opt outs at $30m or more per year. Do you really think he can’t get that from someone?
If he’s willing to accept an 8 year, $240m deal without player opt outs, I think that’s fairly reasonable as far as these things go. But you aren’t getting him at $21M, or $10M less per year than the team gave David Price five years ago.
Perhaps; everyone keeps leaving out how much Mookie got as a signing bonus (that was taxed at TN rates IIRC)...Thats 100% bullshit and everyone knows it. And even redsox stats is calling betts out on that
View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1549215962024402944
if there was no pandemic after the mookie trade there was 0% chance mookie would sign the contract he did
Prior to this season, with two years of control left and before having this "breakout" season, I think this is a very acceptable starting point.So do you think this is an acceptable starting point?