Would you trade Jaylen+ for Durant?

Would you trade Jaylen+ for Durant?

  • Yes

    Votes: 123 26.3%
  • No

    Votes: 285 60.9%
  • Not Sure - this is all moving too fast for me!

    Votes: 60 12.8%

  • Total voters
    468

JM3

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So let's solve what the best Miami can offer the Nets is to see what kind of leverage we have in relation to a potential Heat trade.

It looks like the only way the Heat can make the salaries match without Bam (if they want to keep Butler also) is to include Lowry's $28m.

That trade is something like...

Lowry ($28.3m)
Herro ($5.7m)
Oladipo ($8.8m)
Jovic ($2.2m)
Heat '23 1st
Heat '27 1st
'28 swap
Heat '29 1st

(not going to hurt my brain trying to figure out '24/'26 swaptions)

So this seems like a hard no for the Nets.

It would leave the Heat with Bam/Durant/Butler/MAX/Duncan? Idk.

Regardless, though a Heat trade seems impossible without Bam, so we have to move Simmons to a 3rd team & get Bam to Brooklyn.

At this point, I don't think we can credibly trade Simmons to an actual good team with no proof of concept. So where does he fit? I started to include that in this post but it got too convoluted & I have other stuff I need to do, so maybe will explore that later lol.
 

JM3

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Yeah, when I did the math I did 100/4.5/100, instead of 5.5. Just saw this chart after redoing mine. Now it matches exactly. But yeah - even if you're the favorite you probably aren't winning.

Team Odds % Title Adjusted
Celtics +450
18.18%​
13.93%​
Warriors +650
13.33%​
10.22%​
Clippers +650
13.33%​
10.22%​
Bucks +650
13.33%​
10.22%​
Suns +850
10.53%​
8.06%​
Lakers +1000
9.09%​
6.96%​
Heat +1400
6.67%​
5.11%​
76ers +1400
6.67%​
5.11%​
Nets +1600
5.88%​
4.51%​
Nuggets +1800
5.26%​
4.03%​
Mavs +2200
4.35%​
3.33%​
Grizzlies +2200
4.35%​
3.33%​
Raptors +3000
3.23%​
2.47%​
T'wolves +3500
2.78%​
2.13%​
Bulls +4000
2.44%​
1.87%​
Pelicans +4000
2.44%​
1.87%​
Hawks +5000
1.96%​
1.50%​
Knicks +6600
1.49%​
1.14%​
Blazers +8000
1.23%​
0.95%​
Cavs +10000
0.99%​
0.76%​
Jazz +12500
0.79%​
0.61%​
Hornets +25000
0.40%​
0.31%​
Wizards +25000
0.40%​
0.31%​
Pistons +50000
0.20%​
0.15%​
Rockets +50000
0.20%​
0.15%​
Pacers +50000
0.20%​
0.15%​
Thunder +50000
0.20%​
0.15%​
Magic +50000
0.20%​
0.15%​
Kings +50000
0.20%​
0.15%​
Spurs +50000
0.20%​
0.15%​
. .
130.52%​
100.00%​

Good to see there's only 30% juice in that & not 45%...
 

the moops

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Looks like they can get there without Lowry, but it requires BRK to take back 5 guys.
Robinson, Herro, Oladipo, Strus, Jovic gets them there.
But Oladipo can't be traded until January, so that doesnt work I suppose
 

Devizier

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Simmons isn't the only player who can go to a third team. The Heat could move Bam for other guys, too.

I have no idea who or how, but just pointing that out.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Is there really a super-robust market for Durant?

It's hard for me to many teams who are topping Brown+White+pick right now.
This is the part that can be misleading. Durant is under contract for 4 more seasons……there doesn’t necessarily have to be a market for Durant. The Nets don’t have to move him if they don’t get what they want in return.
 
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DannyDarwinism

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Philly is definitely the wild card.
Yeah, it pains me to say it, but I think we might be looking at an in-shape and motivated Harden (which, at 33 when the season starts, will be far from prime Harden, but better than the recent version), which, along with some moderate improvement from Maxey (even with some shooting regression) and the Tucker, House and especially Melton additions (pushes Thybulle to situational defensive specialist instead of first guy off the bench) will make them a tough out.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Yeah, it pains me to say it, but I think we might be looking at an in-shape and motivated Harden (which, at 33 when the season starts, will be far from prime Harden, but better than the recent version), which, along with some moderate improvement from Maxey (even with some shooting regression) and the Tucker, House and especially Melton additions (pushes Thybulle to situational defensive specialist instead of first guy off the bench) will make them a tough out.
Conversely, Embiid will miss 25% of the season again and most likely be hobbled in the playoffs. So...who knows.
 

Euclis20

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Conversely, Embiid will miss 25% of the season again and most likely be hobbled in the playoffs. So...who knows.
And their three most important people (Embiid, Harden, Doc) have a long and rich history of not raising their games in the playoffs, which they'll have to do at some point. Harden has repeatedly come up small in big games (their last game against Miami being just the latest example), Embiid is yet to get out of the second round despite playing with a pretty lengthy list of all-stars (Butler, Horford, Simmons, Harden), and Doc somehow hasn't been back to the conference finals since 2012, despite coaching title contenders almost every year. Their supporting cast looks very solid, they just need the principals to step up.
 

lovegtm

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This is the part that can be misleading. Durant is under contract for 4 more seasons……there doesn’t necessarily have to be a market for Durant. The Nets don’t have to move him if they don’t get what they want in return.
Right, they definitely don't have to move him, and keeping him is the most likely option.

My point was that they're hoping for this huge, historic return, and the league doesn't seem to value Durant that way, given his age.
 

jmcc5400

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Man I hate this revisionist history, especially with the Heat. Lowry and Herro missed time, but they aren't any more important to the Heat than Smart (who missed two games in that series) or Timelord are to Boston, and Butler didn't seem any more banged up than Tatum. Jaylen had been dealing with a hamstring injury since the Brooklyn series. Both Boston and Miami were beaten up by the end, but we only talk about Miami's injuries because they need the excuse.

The Bucks can have a legit gripe with Middleton missing the whole series, but Smart/TL still missed a combined 5 games in that series, and though it went 7 games, the Celtics were +55 (compared with +18 in the Nets sweep) - the Bucks were lucky that series went 7. If they played 10 times with Middleton out, the Bucks probably lose in 5 or 6 games most of the time, and no one cares about Middleton being out except for Bucks fans.
I’m so glad someone said this. Blah blah blah Middleton. Enough already.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Right, they definitely don't have to move him, and keeping him is the most likely option.

My point was that they're hoping for this huge, historic return, and the league doesn't seem to value Durant that way, given his age.
I think they will at the end of the day. It is still so early in the negotiating window. We are still in July!

Upon further review…..
The trade for Kyrie happened on Aug 30th. Moses Malone was traded following his MVP season on Sept 15, Kevin Love was traded to Cleveland on Aug 23, the infamous Steve Francis 11-player deal was Aug 27, Dwight Howard left Orlando in a deal with the Lakers on Aug 12, etc etc.

In other words, this story isn’t going away anytime soon.
 

EvilEmpire

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I don't think Brooklyn will move Durant before the season starts.

- The offers won't be good enough for them to move quickly.
- I don't think Durant will try to force them to move quickly, especially if the best offers are from teams he doesn't really want to go to. We don't know if that is the case, but it is possible.
- Having a better understanding of whether or not Simmons will be on the court, how he plays if he is, and his possible trade value might open up additional trade options, but they won't know until the season starts.
- More time to see if Durant will change his mind.
 

sezwho

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I don't think Brooklyn will move Durant before the season starts.

- The offers won't be good enough for them to move quickly.
- I don't think Durant will try to force them to move quickly, especially if the best offers are from teams he doesn't really want to go to. We don't know if that is the case, but it is possible.
- Having a better understanding of whether or not Simmons will be on the court, how he plays if he is, and his possible trade value might open up additional trade options, but they won't know until the season starts.
- More time to see if Durant will change his mind.
I agree that the larger dynamic for the Nets favored waiting. However, if their primary suitor is the Celtics I’m not sure I agree.

Brad Stevens has been recently in the coaching saddle, and perhaps a little more front and center on what trade rumors can mean to the team. He’s acted early and decisively to this point, and lingering shadows over Brown are not a great launch pad.
 

Van Everyman

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Was that piece posted at 230 am too? Broussard doing some fine work on behalf of Sean Marks there.

BTW, I can't be the only person on this board who reads this thread title as "Would You Trade Jarren Duran?" am I?
 

Jimbodandy

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I agree that the larger dynamic for the Nets favored waiting. However, if their primary suitor is the Celtics I’m not sure I agree.

Brad Stevens has been recently in the coaching saddle, and perhaps a little more front and center on what trade rumors can mean to the team. He’s acted early and decisively to this point, and lingering shadows over Brown are not a great launch pad.
It sounds like you're saying that team dynamics or players' feelings will be harmed by Brad not addressing internet trade rumors.

We don't know what conversations that Brad and Jaylen have had.
 

Cellar-Door

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In a slight defense of Broussard, he said that as an example of the only way he could see the Nets trading Durant before the season, basically that unless Boston sends you something like that, you hold him and try to change his mind. The whole premise of that list of assets is that it's the type of no doubt mega package the Nets would take right now, and that unless something like that happens, the Nets should just keep KD because his sources say everyone expects KD to play still go out and play if the Nets don't trade him.

View: https://twitter.com/FTFonFS1/status/1552678845614022658
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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By definition, the media types aren't likely to have the details until well after a trade has been consummated. As such, any speculation by Broussard or any other talking heads should simply be viewed as signaling/misdirection from one of the interested parties or pure speculation.

As for the Nets heading into the season with Durant, they clearly have no reason to rush given his contract status. But - and I know this is a point of contention around these parts given the sanctity of contracts - practically speaking, Brooklyn has to weigh the odds that the Durant market gets better as time goes on versus the almost certain distraction of daily questions from the press and potentially having an unhappy KD around the team. Maybe the Nets decide that holding on is the best course of action but its also easy to see why they may want to get something done before the season starts. Turn the page and all that...
 

NomarsFool

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I know it's perspective, but Durant looks like a monster compared to Tatum in that picture.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Was that piece posted at 230 am too? Broussard doing some fine work on behalf of Sean Marks there.

BTW, I can't be the only person on this board who reads this thread title as "Would You Trade Jarren Duran?" am I?
I don't read it that way but I sometimes wonder if people would trade Devers+ for KD or Jaylen+ for Soto.
 

djbayko

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I don't read it that way but I sometimes wonder if people would trade Devers+ for KD or Jaylen+ for Soto.
Given that the Celtics are over the cap, I'm thinking that we should jump at the chance to trade Devers for KD and then simply have the Sox load up in free agency.

Smart
Brown
Tatum
Durant
R Williams

White
Brogdon
G Williams
Gallinari
Horford

Good luck!
 

lovegtm

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I know it's perspective, but Durant looks like a monster compared to Tatum in that picture.
on the other hand, Tatum probably looked like a monster to Durant when he was blocking every jumper KD tried in the 1st round
 

lovegtm

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By definition, the media types aren't likely to have the details until well after a trade has been consummated. As such, any speculation by Broussard or any other talking heads should simply be viewed as signaling/misdirection from one of the interested parties or pure speculation.

As for the Nets heading into the season with Durant, they clearly have no reason to rush given his contract status. But - and I know this is a point of contention around these parts given the sanctity of contracts - practically speaking, Brooklyn has to weigh the odds that the Durant market gets better as time goes on versus the almost certain distraction of daily questions from the press and potentially having an unhappy KD around the team. Maybe the Nets decide that holding on is the best course of action but its also easy to see why they may want to get something done before the season starts. Turn the page and all that...
This is a reasonable perspective. There is significant risk to the Nets in holding on to KD too long.

His market is already clearly much, much thinner than expected due to age/injury risk. Imagine if he suffers a nagging injury in November--it could crater quite quickly.

Obviously if he comes back and Simmons plays well, everything changes, and that's suddenly quite a good team. But there is real risk, and I don't think Brooklyn is going to come out of this with anything close to the package they are imagining.
 

kazuneko

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This is a reasonable perspective. There is significant risk to the Nets in holding on to KD too long.

His market is already clearly much, much thinner than expected due to age/injury risk. Imagine if he suffers a nagging injury in November--it could crater quite quickly.

Obviously if he comes back and Simmons plays well, everything changes, and that's suddenly quite a good team. But there is real risk, and I don't think Brooklyn is going to come out of this with anything close to the package they are imagining.
If I was the Nets GM I’d be more concerned about trading Kyrie. Durant is far less of a headcase, and this team without the drama, could be very good. I’d get whatever I could get for World Be Flat and see what this team can turn into..
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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This is a reasonable perspective. There is significant risk to the Nets in holding on to KD too long.

His market is already clearly much, much thinner than expected due to age/injury risk. Imagine if he suffers a nagging injury in November--it could crater quite quickly.

Obviously if he comes back and Simmons plays well, everything changes, and that's suddenly quite a good team. But there is real risk, and I don't think Brooklyn is going to come out of this with anything close to the package they are imagining.
On the surface, I agree that Brooklyn is unlikely to get a haul commensurate with the talent they are trading away. However, who knows what sort of calculus is going on behind the scenes in places like Miami or Toronto - there are scenarios where they blink and pay up. This being the NBA, you also cannot completely discount another team that wasn't considered a contender for Durant's services getting involved.

The main point is that presumably the Nets want to focus on basketball and building their team. Dragging this out into the season in the hopes that one of the aforementioned teams decides to step up (how often does that happen?) or that Durant will suddenly change his mind seems like wishful thinking. Teams can certainly make trades in-season but it feels like the larger deals are during the offseason. And while Durant is indeed under contract for multiple seasons, the practical effect of his request is that he almost has to be moved.

In short, Brooklyn holding out is essentially a bet that on something happening that forces one of the potential acquirers to step-up.
 

snowmanny

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Given the leak and Jaylen’s response, if I were the Celtics I wouldn’t make another offer. I’d let BKN make the proposal and accept or reject.
 

EvilEmpire

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Eh. If Brooklyn can trade Simmons, there will likely be a broader range of trade options for Durant. That isn't a bet on something happening that will force a trade partner to step up, it's giving Brooklyn time to work some things out to broaden their options.

Next season will be full of distractions no matter what they do. Kyrie and Ben Simmons are still there. If Brooklyn wants to move on from all the nonsense, I think it will take most of the next season to work everything out, and KD is the biggest chip they have to do so.

I think they'll be patient. I don't think there is a deal available now that won't be there during the season, including two years or less of Brown.
 

Devizier

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I think they'll be patient. I don't think there is a deal available now that won't be there during the season, including two years or less of Brown.
This is why I don't think the deal gets done; if the Celtics have reason to fear Jaylen's departure, why would the Nets feel any different? There's not a chance he's re-upping with a flailing Nets garbage fire, which is about where they'd be in two years after the trade.
 

the moops

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This is why I don't think the deal gets done; if the Celtics have reason to fear Jaylen's departure, why would the Nets feel any different? There's not a chance he's re-upping with a flailing Nets garbage fire, which is about where they'd be in two years after the trade.
Because 2 years of Jaylen with a decent chance of him re-signing may be better than any other options?
 

lexrageorge

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We are less than a year removed from pundits and posters insisting that Morey had to trade Simmons by the start of the regular season, no matter the return. So I am not at all convinced that the Nets are operating under any specific deadline here. Sure, if a real compelling offer comes their way, they may jump on it now or in September. But Marks may very well decide that he can wait this out a bit before trading a perennial Top 5 talent.
 

Cellar-Door

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Because 2 years of Jaylen with a decent chance of him re-signing may be better than any other options?
Also the situation would be different... he'd likely be the #1 option, he'd be face of the franchise in a huge media market, etc.
 

RorschachsMask

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This is why I don't think the deal gets done; if the Celtics have reason to fear Jaylen's departure, why would the Nets feel any different? There's not a chance he's re-upping with a flailing Nets garbage fire, which is about where they'd be in two years after the trade.
That’s working under the assumption they offered Jaylen because they were scared he won’t re-sign. I think it’s more about them realizing how much better it makes the team for the next few years.
 

Devizier

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That’s working under the assumption they offered Jaylen because they were scared he won’t re-sign. I think it’s more about them realizing how much better it makes the team for the next few years.
That’s an assumption, not the assumption. Or another way to put it is a consideration. Again, the Nets (especially sans Durant) are in a precarious position right now. Holding Jaylen cannot be reliably counted on.
 

JM3

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We are less than a year removed from pundits and posters insisting that Morey had to trade Simmons by the start of the regular season, no matter the return. So I am not at all convinced that the Nets are operating under any specific deadline here. Sure, if a real compelling offer comes their way, they may jump on it now or in September. But Marks may very well decide that he can wait this out a bit before trading a perennial Top 5 talent.
I don't think anyone said "no matter the return", and it's very likely the 76ers would have had a better season if they had done one of the Simmons trades pre-season rather than waiting until the deadline, giving up future 1sts & Seth Curry for fat James Harden. Of course, the trade could still end up looking good if Harden is great this year, but let's not act like this was some coup & Morey comes out of this looking pristine - they punted the healthiest Embiid season yet.

ETA - I do think this is a slightly different situation, though, as the Nets don't have to worry about punting the season by waiting too long on the KD trade - they would punt the season by trading him. So I agree that there isn't that high of a level of urgency for the Nets to make the trade.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I don't think anyone said "no matter the return", and it's very likely the 76ers would have had a better season if they had done one of the Simmons trades pre-season rather than waiting until the deadline, giving up future 1sts & Seth Curry for fat James Harden. Of course, the trade could still end up looking good if Harden is great this year, but let's not act like this was some coup & Morey comes out of this looking pristine - they punted the healthiest Embiid season yet.

ETA - I do think this is a slightly different situation, though, as the Nets don't have to worry about punting the season by waiting too long on the KD trade - they would punt the season by trading him. So I agree that there isn't that high of a level of urgency for the Nets to make the trade.
The post that kicks this off is also a goalpost mover. The meat of these debates are the "sanctity of contracts" crowd who feels that an executed deal overrides practical considerations. Teams can make players stay.

The Nets can certainly hold on to KD into the season and they may well think doing so is in their best interests. But there are people who consistently argue that if player Y has an X year contract, teams can make them honor it. While there is legal basis for this, it never happens in actuality. Typically, once these guys are done with an organization, they will be moved. It may not be immediate but its going to happen, even if they still have four years left on their deal and the team cannot get exactly what it wants.

In short, contract or not, the Nets are effectively price takers here.
 
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EvilEmpire

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The post that kicks this off is also a goalpost mover. The meat of these debates are the "sanctity of contracts" crowd who feels that an executed deal overrides practical considerations. Teams can make players stay.
I'm not sure who you are including in that crowd, but I don't remember seeing an argument here that Brooklyn should ignore KD's demands and make him play out his contract. If there is such an argument, I doubt it was a crowd.

Slowing the process down and moving KD during the season isn't putting much weight in "the sanctity of contracts" at all. Especially when practical considerations support it.
 

JM3

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I was skimming through the Ben Simmons thread from last off-season when there were rumors of packages like Siakam + picks, Dejounte + picks, Haliburton + picks, etc. I would take any of those over Harden - picks.

We also had a big debate over whether the 76ers would start super hot over their 1st 20 games to say FU to Simmons (10-10).

I also stand by my controversial Maxey > Davion Mitchell take. Had no idea he would take this big of a jump, though. He was basically being discussed as a throw in because some backup guard was tying himself to Simmons.
 

lexrageorge

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There is a huge difference between the following:

a.) Arguing that the Nets may be able to get a better return by waiting, especially given that they do still own Durant's contractural rights for 4 years.

b.) Arguing that the sanctity of contracts is paramount and therefore the Nets need to make Durant play for them for the next 4 years no matter what.

Anyone claiming that anyone here argued for (b) needs to show their work.

I don't think anyone said "no matter the return", and it's very likely the 76ers would have had a better season if they had done one of the Simmons trades pre-season rather than waiting until the deadline, giving up future 1sts & Seth Curry for fat James Harden. Of course, the trade could still end up looking good if Harden is great this year, but let's not act like this was some coup & Morey comes out of this looking pristine - they punted the healthiest Embiid season yet.

ETA - I do think this is a slightly different situation, though, as the Nets don't have to worry about punting the season by waiting too long on the KD trade - they would punt the season by trading him. So I agree that there isn't that high of a level of urgency for the Nets to make the trade.
Another view of the Simmons trade is that Morey got rid of some redundant players and some firsts that are unlikely to matter during Embiid's window, and got a player who could return to 3rd team All-NBA form under the right circumstances. I agree whole heartedly that the Simmons and Durant situations are vastly different, and I acknowledge that Marks could indeed pull the trigger before the season starts. Just was trying to push back against the concept that the Nets "have" to trade Durant before the season.
 

JM3

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There is a huge difference between the following:

a.) Arguing that the Nets may be able to get a better return by waiting, especially given that they do still own Durant's contractural rights for 4 years.

b.) Arguing that the sanctity of contracts is paramount and therefore the Nets need to make Durant play for them for the next 4 years no matter what.

Anyone claiming that anyone here argued for (b) needs to show their work.


Another view of the Simmons trade is that Morey got rid of some redundant players and some firsts that are unlikely to matter during Embiid's window, and got a player who could return to 3rd team All-NBA form under the right circumstances. I agree whole heartedly that the Simmons and Durant situations are vastly different, and I acknowledge that Marks could indeed pull the trigger before the season starts. Just was trying to push back against the concept that the Nets "have" to trade Durant before the season.
Yeah, we're on the same page on KD - I just don't think Simmons is a good comp for lots of reasons.

Even if the actual 1st round picks may not be useful, the asset value is huge for a team trying to build out their roster.

If the 76ers did the Siakam trade preseason, they could be rolling into this year with...

Embiid/Siakam/Tobias/Curry/Maxey...PJ/Shake/Melton/House/Thybulle/Niang/Korkmaz, extra picks, probably including the #20 in the '22 draft which they could have used to upgrade the rotation somewhere...
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I'm not sure who you are including in that crowd, but I don't remember seeing an argument here that Brooklyn should ignore KD's demands and make him play out his contract. If there is such an argument, I doubt it was a crowd.

Slowing the process down and moving KD during the season isn't putting much weight in "the sanctity of contracts" at all. Especially when practical considerations support it.
There are folks who feel like the Nets have leverage here given the remaining term of KD's deal. I take the other side of that but whatever.

That said, if anyone was arguing that the Nets absolutely need to trade KD before the season they are in a very small minority and I cannot recall a post saying that. That said, they almost certainly have to move him and you would think sooner would be preferable to later. That is my only point. If people want to get high fives and do a victory lap because they guessed when Harden would be dealt, more power to them.
 

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It seems to me that the Nets are really hog-tied here. There three best players, at least on paper, don't seem to have a future in Brooklyn. Durant, because he wants out. Kyrie and Simmons, because their owner (GM? I can't recall who) said that they want a team consisting of players who put team first (neither of which seem to apply to KI or BS).
 

JM3

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Dec 14, 2019
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There are folks who feel like the Nets have leverage here given the remaining term of KD's deal. I take the other side of that but whatever.

That said, if anyone was arguing that the Nets absolutely need to trade KD before the season they are in a very small minority and I cannot recall a post saying that. That said, they almost certainly have to move him and you would think sooner would be preferable to later. That is my only point. If people want to get high fives and do a victory lap because they guessed when Harden would be dealt, more power to them.
I think where the 4-year contract gives the Nets leverage is that KD is locked up for 4 years so the team acquiring him will have him (or the value of being able to trade his contract), for a while, & because he's not about to expire they can take their time a bit, especially as the landscape is a bit complicated with the DPEs.

Agree that if the argument is that they aren't in a rush because they can just sit him for 4 years or force him to play, that would be a bad argument.