I'm a little puzzled with your analysis. You claim, "the jump to AAA is a bigger jump for position players than ever before and the adjustment period will be longer except for a few top tier can't miss types". And you may be right. If so how can we expect Cedanne in '24? He started this year in A ball and you expect him in 2024? Probably won't be in Boston as a regular till 2025, if your analysis is correct.
I agree. There's too many holes and too many teams above them to even consider a pennant for next year. Maybe we get in the playoffs next year, but the go for it year is more likely 2024
The key word is “hope”. Not expecting…. Hoping. Probably unlikely.
If the team is not ready to contend by 2024, which would mean his 2023 was as ineffectual as his 2022 has been, by and large, then I could see his seat being very warm.
That is a really poor lineup (obviously Devers is there in 2023 that makes it better). Theres 1 legitimate above average position player on that list (Story) and one top prospect (Casas) who has a chance. Arroyo could be a third if (1) he could stay healthy; and (2) Story can still play short.
I think that's about right. I think the goal for next year should be to transition up a bunch of young pitching and Triston Casas and get a definitive read on whether Duran has a future as a starting outfielder. In the meantime, a bunch of our high-end position will reach AA, where it will be possible to actually start planning around the ones who succeed — or else expending them as the big pieces in meaningful trades.
I think this is right. Not that Bloom will be canned if the Red Sox big league roster is mediocre in 2023, but I think that will be the period where we can really start evaluating the trajectory the FO has put the organization on since 2019 is a promising one. We all know there are no sure things, but if guys like Mayer, Yorke and Rafaela are kicking ass in Portland and Worcester, and Whitlock, Crawford, and Bello are holding their own in the rotation, the future will look pretty bright, especially if Bleis and Perales and some of the other young dudes are also making progress.
How are you defining "ineffectual" in this context? Based solely on the team's record or are we going to judge the GM on how the organization stands as a whole? I only ask because despite the big league club's sub-.500 record at present, the farm has taken steps forward over the last year.
This is worth dwelling on. Why is the jump to MLB from AAA bigger in recent seasons? I think there are two reasons: the lost 2020 minor league season and the elimination of the short season leagues, which together have served to dilute talent in the high minors and make evaluation trickier.
Didn't they install humidors at all of the MLB parks, too? Did they do that at the AAA level?
I think 2024 is the year they will really
Oh, I wasn't arguing that the listing should be their final lineup. I was pointing out they already have some players that could be here in 2023 and 2024. The question is - who do they hold onto, who do they trade, and who do they try to sign to fill gaps until their lower minors "pipeline" begins to cluster good prospects closer to ML playing time.
I think the difference here is that period had Xander (2013), Betts (2014), Benintendi (2016), Devers (2017) coming up during a period of time where the team wasnt losing a ton of talent. Here, Xander (2nd best position player) is likely gone and Devers (best) may be. If Devers leaves, there's really very little left.
I think the folks pointing to 2024 aren't necessarily saying that that is when the team is going to be "great" but saying that we can't necessarily expect an immediate turn around next year just based on a little bit of salary relief/flexibility. Nothing is going to appear clear right now, but 18 months or so is a long time for prospects/players to mature and improve, free agents to be signed, trades to be made, etc.
I like this analysis of the bats they'll have. I agree that Casas SHOULD be a pretty major bat for them next year. He at least needs to be given the chance, though I expect some bumps, they need to give him the run as the 1b or DH of the future.
And that’s the rub, isn’t it? What should Bloom & the FO be judged on and when. This ownership group has had a pretty quick trigger finger with baseball ops heads. As you mention, despite Cherington’s acumen in drafting and developing talent, he was shown the door after two subpar seasons at the ML level. And that was even with the arrival of X, Mookie & Bradley with Devers and Benintendi soon on the way.
This is sort of the exact same time in ML talent to prospect talent ratio as when Cherington was canned. It seems the ownership isn’t meddling with the roster- Sandoval, Hanley- but more with spending and sustainability demands.And that’s the rub, isn’t it? What should Bloom & the FO be judged on and when. This ownership group has had a pretty quick trigger finger with baseball ops heads. As you mention, despite Cherington’s acumen in drafting and developing talent, he was shown the door after two subpar seasons at the ML level. And that was even with the arrival of X, Mookie & Bradley with Devers and Benintendi soon on the way.
Bloom has done a great job quickly rebuilding the farm, but if the Sox have another down year at the major league level in 2023 I can certainly envision a scenario where his seat is very hot in 2024. I’m not saying that’s how it should be but given past history, it’s a distinct possibility.
So all he has to do is have a kick-ass offseason and make it all moot
On the pitching side of things, I hope the Sox can take advantage of the fact that their pitching prospects are further along in the pipeline than most of their hitting ones. In recent years, this has meant taking on injury/performance risk with FA pitchers (Perez, Richards, Hill, Wacha). There’s been the financial cost and also an opportunity cost. Crawford should be ready for a rotation spot next year, and hopefully Bello, too (even if not right at the beginning of the year). And perhaps Winckowski as 6th starter/multi-inning relief guy. Then figure out how Seabold, Walter, Murphy, Mata and Ward slot in. Maybe one or two of them ends up in the pen and someone is part of a trade for a needed piece.
Valdez' last two years in the minors:
I've always wondered whether the front office change from Cherington to Dombrowski was a reflection of ownership's feelings about Cherington or if Henry was just taking advantage of Dombrowski's availability. Because it's not like Cherington was explicitly fired. They brought in Dombrowski to be his boss. They may have been trying to blend their respective strengths, only Cherington justifiably felt usurped and left.And that’s the rub, isn’t it? What should Bloom & the FO be judged on and when. This ownership group has had a pretty quick trigger finger with baseball ops heads. As you mention, despite Cherington’s acumen in drafting and developing talent, he was shown the door after two subpar seasons at the ML level. And that was even with the arrival of X, Mookie & Bradley with Devers and Benintendi soon on the way.
Bloom has done a great job quickly rebuilding the farm, but if the Sox have another down year at the major league level in 2023 I can certainly envision a scenario where his seat is very hot in 2024. I’m not saying that’s how it should be but given past history, it’s a distinct possibility.
So all he has to do is have a kick-ass offseason and make it all moot
I hate the idea of penciling both Hosmer and Casas into the lineup next year. There's a decent chance that both could flop, in which case both 1B and DH are manned by people who projected to be worse than Eric Hosmer. Have Hosmer play 1B until Casas is deemed ready and then keep him as a bench player or just let him go.
Sorry to ask- but I haven’t really seen anywhere saying that his defense is good- or even passable. I suspect without being able to do extreme shifts, that rangy types will become more important. But if his defense is as bad as I’ve read, do you really think he’s viewed as anything more than a trade chip?
Well THAT is something I don't really know about - his defense. I'll have to defer to others on that.
I think he should be considered a candidate to get PAs at DH. Let me put it this way, why would you give Hosmer PAs at DH over Valdez? Hosmer has much less upside; it's been five years since he's had a full-length season with an OPS over .735 (his 2020 was pretty nice).
I agree with this assessment. Additionally, while I don't think ownership is remotely happy with three seasons of missing the playoffs, I also think ownership wouldn't hire Bloom without giving him at least a 5 year runway to execute his plan of creating a sustainable organization.
Yeah, if Valdez's defense is so atrocious that he's not being given serious consideration despite those ML numbers, then I can't imagine he would have much value as a trade chip either.
Hosmer, because of the contract situation, could actually have some value as a trade chip in the offseason. If they can get a decent lottery ticket for him, that would be better than cutting him outright.
You beat me to it on this one. Seems like JD might be back on a short deal that is not the QO. If he gets insanely hot for the rest of 2022, then the landscape for him might change.
That’s fair, but if Casas hasn’t played at all, I’d imagine it may be difficult to deal Hosmer. Then you are in a situation where if Casas struggles, what do you do? Maybe they think 6 weeks of Casas playing now wouldn’t tell them much (or he isn’t ready, or they want the potential comp ROY thing) but it feels like it could be beneficial for him to get some reps playing against good teams when the pressure in the Sox isn’t incredibly high. Waiving JD and keeping Casas around the rest of the year could accomplish this; of course they may not like the message waiving JD would send to the rest of the clubhouse?
FWIW, Casas' rookie eligibility for next season depends on us keeping him in AAA until Friday.
Ah, thanks- that makes sense. I’d imagine some roster moves a week or so from now barring a miracle.
Something else to consider is that the Red Sox might see the value in keeping Hosmer for a full year next season. The contract is so favorable that it would allow money to be spent elsewhere, particularly if they need to find a shortstop. It also, and I know this is sacrilege, allows them to consider using Casas as a trade chip.
It's not sacrilege, but given that 1B and middle of the order bats are both needs on the team now, and Hosmer is a 1 WAR player, it's pretty tricky to see how you get meaningful value for a trade like that.
Given Degrom's injury history anything more then a one year deal is something I would pass on. I would like to see them sign Carlos Rodon to a Gausman like deal.
IMO, Hosmer's contract is an asset that this team should not toss away.
That’s a good point. I do hope Bloom & Co are given enough rope to see the plan out. And that the fans and ownership are patient enough even if next season doesn’t result in a playoff berth. It’s fun tracking the plethora of quality players in the system— looking forward to the wave coming
How much of an asset is it, though? The Sox didn’t have to get much to get him, after all. He’s a 1-1.5 war 1b with no power who is 33 in October. He’s cheap, but the team can’t just punt at 1b and the of next year again and expect to be good. As a backup 1b, he’d be fine, but the team doesn’t need two LH 1b who can’t hit LH.
Yes. Hosmer gives the team some flexibility. He could be part of the short term 1B situation if Casas is injured or struggles. Maybe he’s part of a DH solution next year. He’s a better insurance policy than Travis Shaw, that’s for sure. And ultimately, his best use to us is probably as a trade chip. A somewhat above league average hitter at the ML minimum (for 3 years) has value.
