On his baseball card, Brayan Bello has a pedestrian line: 0-3, an ERA that starts with a 7, a .955 OPS allowed, too many walks, waaaaay too many hits.
But if you look even a touch below the surface, you start to see some things that point in another direction. For one thing, those numbers come with a .472 BABIP, which already goes a long way towards explaining how his ERA is more than twice his FIP (3.03). A 62% strand rate (that number is generally closer to 70%) is another data point. He gets a ton of groundballs, and our infield defense with Story out has been pretty questionable.
But what is really exciting, is that per Savant, Brayan Bello has a .282 xwOBA and a .294 xwOBACON (xwOBA only on contact). These are measures of quality of contact allowed, and they are very good numbers. For context, SPs with xwOBAs in the .280 range include Zack Wheeler, Joe Musgrove, Chris Bassitt, Framber Valdez, and Luis Castillo.
Bello is ranked third after Connor Seabold (huh) and Josh Van Meter in difference between his terrible wOBA allowed and his good xwOBA allowed.
This guy looks to be the truth. I thought we should have a thread for our best homegrown pitcher since Lester and Buchholz.
But if you look even a touch below the surface, you start to see some things that point in another direction. For one thing, those numbers come with a .472 BABIP, which already goes a long way towards explaining how his ERA is more than twice his FIP (3.03). A 62% strand rate (that number is generally closer to 70%) is another data point. He gets a ton of groundballs, and our infield defense with Story out has been pretty questionable.
But what is really exciting, is that per Savant, Brayan Bello has a .282 xwOBA and a .294 xwOBACON (xwOBA only on contact). These are measures of quality of contact allowed, and they are very good numbers. For context, SPs with xwOBAs in the .280 range include Zack Wheeler, Joe Musgrove, Chris Bassitt, Framber Valdez, and Luis Castillo.
Bello is ranked third after Connor Seabold (huh) and Josh Van Meter in difference between his terrible wOBA allowed and his good xwOBA allowed.
This guy looks to be the truth. I thought we should have a thread for our best homegrown pitcher since Lester and Buchholz.