The Blame Game: Pick the Single Biggest Issue With the Offense

What is the single biggest issue with the offense?

  • Mac Jones

    Votes: 21 7.2%
  • Offensive Line

    Votes: 114 39.2%
  • Matt Patricia

    Votes: 105 36.1%
  • Skill Position Players

    Votes: 3 1.0%
  • Bill the GM's Decision Making

    Votes: 43 14.8%
  • Other

    Votes: 5 1.7%

  • Total voters
    291

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,375
The single biggest issue with the offense is red zone efficiency.

They are tied with Denver for last in the NFL in red zone scoring efficiency. Last year they were #7 at 63.1%. This year they're at 37.9%. Here's how it's gone in the red zone for the Pats this year, game by game:

Game 1 at Mia (1-1, 7 points, 0 missed points) - lost by 13
TD

Game 2 at Pit (1-2, 10 points, 4 missed points) - won by 3
FG
TD

Game 3 vs Bal (3-5, 24 points, 10 missed points) - lost by 11
FG
TD
TD
TD
INT

Game 4 at GB (1-2, 10 points, 4 missed points) - lost by 3
FG
TD

Game 5 vs Det (0-4, 12 points, 16 missed points) - won by 29
FG
FG
FG
FG

Game 6 at Cle (2-4, 17 points, 11 missed points) - won by 23
FG
TD
Missed FG
TD

Game 7 vs Chi (1-1, 7 points, 0 missed points) - lost by 19
TD

Game 8 at NYJ (1-2, 10 points, 4 missed points) - won by 5
FG
TD

Game 9 vs Ind (1-2, 10 points, 4 missed points) - won by 23
TD
FG

Game 10 vs NYJ (0-2, 3 points, 11 missed points) - won by 7
FG
Missed FG

Game 11 at Min (0-3, 9 points, 12 missed points) - lost by 7
FG
FG
FG

Game 12 vs Buf (0-1, 3 points, 4 missed points) - lost by 14
FG

So they've been in the red zone 29 times:
- 11 TD (37.9%)
- 15 FG (51.7%)
- 2 missed FG (6.9%)
- 1 turnover (3.4%)

They've had a possible 203 points (assuming one point conversions) and they've scored 122 points (60.0% of the possible points available) and left 81 on the table.

In some of those games it didn't matter. It mattered in the Baltimore game, because all they'd have needed in the end is a field goal but they had to go for a TD that led to the Agholor fumble. It mattered in the GB game when they left 4 points on the field and lost by 3 in overtime. It mattered in the Minnesota game where they left 12 points on the field and lost by 7.

If they scored TDs on 63.1% of their red zone opportunities, that would have meant they'd have scored 18 touchdowns in the red zone this year instead of 11. Obviously it matters in what game they score those, but on the whole, it would mean, if you turn 6 of those FG and one of those misses (either TO or missed FG) into a TD, approximately 31 extra points on the season. That could have meant the difference of 2 more wins, maybe 3.

Certainly, 8-4 or 9-3 look a hell of a lot better than 6-6. It's the difference between us looking at this being a lost year compared to a very positive step forward in the rebuilding process.

Frankly, I don't know WHY the red zone offense has been so bad, but my word it's been awful beyond belief.

That being said, they are also just 27th in the NFL in red zone opportunities per game at 2.7 (KC is #1 at 4.5), so it's not like they're getting the ball there very often, so maybe THAT is the biggest problem.
 

Super Nomario

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 5, 2000
14,012
Mansfield MA
Frankly, I don't know WHY the red zone offense has been so bad, but my word it's been awful beyond belief.

That being said, they are also just 27th in the NFL in red zone opportunities per game at 2.7 (KC is #1 at 4.5), so it's not like they're getting the ball there very often, so maybe THAT is the biggest problem.
Yeah, the offense is bad at a lot of things. They were 29th in first downs / game entering today, so it's not like they're moving the ball outside the red zone. They're very big-play-dependent, but they're not really that explosive, so when they get a big play it's like a 25-yard completion and not a 60-yard score. And they're terrible at running the ball, and that becomes more important the closer you get to the goal line and the less space you have.
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2005
41,947
Thought experiment...

Which team wins more games?
  • Patriots but Josh Allen instead of Mac Jones
  • Patriots but add Davante Adams to the WR group
  • Patriots but Eagles OL instead of Pats OL
  • Patriots but Josh McDaniels as OC instead of Patricia
  • Patriots but with another hot HC instead of BB - take your pick, Sirianni, McDaniel, etc.
I think the answer to this poll is Mac because Mac is the QB and that's just how the NFL works.
Josh Allen now, or Josh Allen in year 2, like Mac is now?
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2005
41,947
Average separation (per: https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#average-separation ):


Henry: 3.7 yds (#10 on the entire list)

Tyreek Hill: 3.5 yds
Nelson Agholor: 3.4 yds
Christian Kirk: 3.3 yds - Kirk has 56 rec, 725 yds, and 7 td this year

Cooper Kupp: 3.2 yds
Justin Jefferson: 3.2 yds
Amon St. Brown: 3.2 yds
Jakobi Meyers: 3.1 yds
DeVonta Smith: 2.9 yds

Parker: 1.5 yds

Here's one that's interesting. Compare Meyers to St. Brown.

Avg. Cushion:
- St. Brown: 6.6 yds
- Meyers: 5.3 yds

Avg. Air Yards per Attempt:
- St. Brown: 6.2 yds
- Meyers: 9.7 yds

Avg. Separation:
- St. Brown: 3.2 yds
- Meyers: 3.1 yds

So CBs are backing a yard and a half further off St. Brown than they are Meyers. Meyers is running, on average, deeper patterns than St. Brown, yet getting essentially the same amount of separation (3.6 inches less) as St. Brown.

How does that translate to actual on-field production?

- St. Brown: 65 rec, 73.9% catch rate, 716 yds, 11.0 ypc
- Meyers: 50 rec, 74.6% catch rate, 593 yds, 11.9 ypc

What's the real difference between St. Brown and Meyers? St. Brown seems much more electric, doesn't he? Seems a class above Meyers.

YAC/reception:
- St. Brown: 5.4 yds
- Meyers: 3.3 yds

So St. Brown does more with it once he gets it, but he's getting it shallower and ending up with fewer overall yards per catch than Meyers.
How do the separation stats account for a 3rd and 15 and a receiver runs a 6 yard out, with 5 yards of separation, because well, it's 3rd and 15?
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,375
How do the separation stats account for a 3rd and 15 and a receiver runs a 6 yard out, with 5 yards of separation, because well, it's 3rd and 15?
No idea. It’s just the only place I found that actually tracks separation. It’s fair to question it I suppose but I haven’t seen anyone else do anything more on this. So it’s the best we’ve got.
 

rodderick

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 24, 2009
12,751
Belo Horizonte - Brazil
No idea. It’s just the only place I found that actually tracks separation. It’s fair to question it I suppose but I haven’t seen anyone else do anything more on this. So it’s the best we’ve got.
My issue with these separation stats is, if I'm not mistaken, they only track separation when the receiver was actually targeted, which invariably will make it so guys that QBs are confident can make catches in traffic look worse overall.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,375
My issue with these separation stats is, if I'm not mistaken, they only track separation when the receiver was actually targeted, which invariably will make it so guys that QBs are confident can make catches in traffic look worse overall.
Understood. I have no idea how to fix that though. It's not reasonable for us to just go by our woefully inexact "eyeball test" and say, oh man our receivers can never get separation, when at least there's a metric out there that we can use, imperfect though it may be.

I mean, I'm open to any better ideas, for sure.
 

rodderick

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 24, 2009
12,751
Belo Horizonte - Brazil
Understood. I have no idea how to fix that though. It's not reasonable for us to just go by our woefully inexact "eyeball test" and say, oh man our receivers can never get separation, when at least there's a metric out there that we can use, imperfect though it may be.

I mean, I'm open to any better ideas, for sure.
Oh, you're right, they are still valuable as a tool, just imperfect.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,375
Oh, you're right, they are still valuable as a tool, just imperfect.
Definitely. And how do you calculate "separation" against a zone defense? I don't know. But....it's what we have to work with, and all that other stuff should roughly even out across all receivers throughout the league.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,375
Yeah, the offense is bad at a lot of things. They were 29th in first downs / game entering today, so it's not like they're moving the ball outside the red zone. They're very big-play-dependent, but they're not really that explosive, so when they get a big play it's like a 25-yard completion and not a 60-yard score. And they're terrible at running the ball, and that becomes more important the closer you get to the goal line and the less space you have.
Rush offense:
#24 in total rush yards
#26 in rush yards per attempt
#22 in rushing first downs
#29 in expected points from rushing

So here's the thing.... it goes back to the offensive line. We know that Harris and Stevenson are really good. Both of them. What's different about this year is the OL has been very bad. Very bad in pass protection. They've allowed the 9th most sacks, and are 8th worst in sack percentage allowed. In order to combat that, the Pats have to throw a ton of very short, quick passes and/or screens, which means that Mac isn't getting the chance to really throw downfield (compared to the rest of the league). Even still, they're #14 in the NFL in ANY/A, which is surprising, at 7.0. That's better than Dallas (6.8), Tampa (6.8), the Chargers (6.7), Minnesota (6.5), and Arizona (5.9), among others. Kind of hard to believe.

But if the OL isn't protecting Mac, and they're not opening up holes for the running game, that kind of makes it difficult to do much offensively, ya know? I think that some of it is coaching, and some of it is injuries, and some of it is guys just being crappy. Trent Brown has done some inexplicable things, like cut blocking in pass protection, that boggle the mind. I don't see how he's being coached to do that. He just seems to do it for some reason, but there isn't, sadly, any better options there at LT.

Brown: Way underperforming what he's capable of.
Strange: Great start as a rookie, but hit a wall and has had a rough second half of the season, though in pass protection he's solid. He'll be more than fine in the long run, but obviously it's been an adjustment for him.
Andrews: Has dealt with a lot of injuries.
Onwenu: He's been their best OL so far.
Wynn: YUCK.
Ferentz: Nothing more than a backup who's been forced to play a lot.
Cajuste: See Ferentz.
Cannon: Injured but was a castoff and actually had to get major snaps for a couple of games.

It's just a bad group that's had a bad year. No way around it. Hard to get better this year, but it's crystal clear that they need to devote a LOT of resources to the OL this offseason. Both in the draft and in free agency and/or trades.
 

Super Nomario

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 5, 2000
14,012
Mansfield MA
Even still, they're #14 in the NFL in ANY/A, which is surprising, at 7.0. That's better than Dallas (6.8), Tampa (6.8), the Chargers (6.7), Minnesota (6.5), and Arizona (5.9), among others. Kind of hard to believe.
They're 14th in AY/A (not N), which doesn't include sacks. The ANY/A isn't a lot different, at 17th (5.9), but note that Mac personally is 25th at 5.5 - the two Zappe games are bringing up the average a lot.

Trent Brown has done some inexplicable things, like cut blocking in pass protection, that boggle the mind. I don't see how he's being coached to do that. He just seems to do it for some reason, but there isn't, sadly, any better options there at LT.
The one in the Vikings game was inexplicable but I've seen film folks say the one last week was by design and Mac should have gotten rid of the ball. The issues here are multi-factorial.

Ferentz: Nothing more than a backup who's been forced to play a lot.
Cajuste: See Ferentz.
Cannon: Injured but was a castoff and actually had to get major snaps for a couple of games.
The depth was malpractice this year tbh. It was like the Red Sox OF. Ferentz went from a guy who spent most of last year on the practice squad to, at 33, our top IOL backup. The OL was disappointing but functional the first six weeks or so, but no surprise that when a couple injuries hit, the replacement-level backup group got exposed.
 

BigJimEd

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 4, 2002
4,432
The OL has been poor so far. But to be fair on the pass protection, they are middle of the road in pressure % and have given up the second lowest QB hits . Not good but maybe not quite as bad as the sack numbers indicate.

But none of that takes away from your overall point that the OL has been bad. Need much better play from the OTs going forward.
 
Last edited:

Shelterdog

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Feb 19, 2002
15,375
New York City
They're 14th in AY/A (not N), which doesn't include sacks. The ANY/A isn't a lot different, at 17th (5.9), but note that Mac personally is 25th at 5.5 - the two Zappe games are bringing up the average a lot.


The one in the Vikings game was inexplicable but I've seen film folks say the one last week was by design and Mac should have gotten rid of the ball. The issues here are multi-factorial.


The depth was malpractice this year tbh. It was like the Red Sox OF. Ferentz went from a guy who spent most of last year on the practice squad to, at 33, our top IOL backup. The OL was disappointing but functional the first six weeks or so, but no surprise that when a couple injuries hit, the replacement-level backup group got exposed.
I'm generally of the school of thought that the coaches know what they're doing, that savvy system knowledgeable backups are better than just playing the random young guy, but Ferentz just pushes that to far; I simply refuse to believe that Kody Russey or Hayden Howerton aren't better than the tiny and weak (for an NFL offensive lineman) and unathletic old guy.
 

BigJimEd

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 4, 2002
4,432
The one in the Vikings game was inexplicable but I've seen film folks say the one last week was by design and Mac should have gotten rid of the ball. The issues here are multi-factorial.
Yes, there are some quick hitters where they might cut block. Done right, it gets the DL hands down and you're not worried about blocking in for extended time. From what I read on that play, Mac had a 3 step drop, both OTs cut block. Mac holds the ball and eventually gets sacked. That's on him as those plays are designed to get rid of the ball quick. I believe red zone play as well, so big sack.
 

E5 Yaz

Transcends message boarding
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 25, 2002
90,017
Oregon
Peter King has quite a lot to say today

Goat of the week
Matt Patricia, assistant coach, Patriots.
Not because Mac Jones yelled either at him or out of frustration Thursday night in the 24-10 loss to the Bills, or because offensive players subtly questioned Patricia’s play-calling after the game. But because the Patriots have developed zero downfield passing game, with nobody remotely threatening the secondary. Against the Bills, just seven of Mac Jones’ 36 passes went 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage or farther. You could argue that Jones—who completed just one of those seven throws—didn’t play well enough to deserve the trust of Patricia to throw to intermediate and deep areas. What I would say is Jones, the previous week against Minnesota, had completions of 26, 34, 16, 14, 37 and 40 yards on throws 10 yards or more past the line of scrimmage. The Buffalo game was a regression of major proportions. Patricia needed to build on the Minnesota game and did not.

6. I think I’ve started to wonder—and I emphasize started—whether Bill Belichick, who needs 21 wins to break Don Shula’s all-time record for coaching victories, will get them in New England. Series of “I thinks” will explain why.
7. I think I got a great text Thursday night, in the midst of the Buffalo-New England game, from a smart, veteran NFL scout. The text: “Watching Mac Jones and Josh Allen throw in the same game isn’t good for Mac Jones.” I swear, 30 seconds later, Allen, running to his right, threw a perfect strike 58 yards in the air into the end zone for what momentarily was a touchdown pass to Stefon Diggs. (It got called back.) But the collective difference between the passers in the four meetings between Allen and Jones is stark.
8. I think that game Thursday night said this to me: The Bills have become to New England what the Patriots were to Buffalo for two decades. Not to put Josh Allen on a Tom Brady trajectory, but just in terms of football, the gap between Allen and Jones is worrisome for New England, and the talent gap between the depth of the Brandon Beane Bills and the Bill Belichick Patriots is big. That gap has led to the Bills winning the last three games in the series by an average of 19 points. Amazing to consider that the Patriots really aren’t close to Buffalo now. To triple-down on the differences between the two teams, consider how non-competitive that game felt. Buffalo was playing without two of its five most important defensive players, Von Miller and Micah Hyde, and still controlled the ball for 38 minutes. Midway through the fourth quarter, with the Bills up 24-7, New England, needing three scores, had the most painful, clunky drive imaginable—17 plays, taking almost six minutes, and getting just a field goal out of it. Six incompletions on the drive. When it was over, and Buffalo got the ensuing onside kick, Belichick didn’t even bother to use his three timeouts to try to get the ball back. He white-flagged the last two minutes. That’s how hopeless this felt.
9. I think Robert Kraft, who is 81 and will enter his 30th year of Patriots ownership in 2023, is not in this to rebuild deliberately. He has to be looking at the dung-show on the Patriots’ offensive staff and wondering why Belichick left the offense so wanting this year. Anyway, I can’t see anything weird happening this year. But I have my antennae up about the Patriots for 2023.
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2022/12/05/fmia-week-13-49ers-joe-burrow-peter-king-fmia-week-13/?cid=nbcsports#the-lead-49ers
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,375
It would be nice if King also pointed out that the Patriots were playing basically a replacement offensive line. Brown was sick (and played miserably). They had a Jets' practice squad guy at RT. Andrews is just recovering from a concussion.

This isn't to say that the Bills aren't much better. Obviously they are. We will see how good Buffalo is when Allen starts commanding $50+ million a year. I'm sure they'll still be really good, but it'll be much, much harder to build a team around him. This year his cap hit is ~10m. In 2024 it'll be ~41m. In 2025 it'll be ~51m.
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2005
41,947
Year 2 Josh Allen had a higher ANY/A, a lower turnover percentage and more total yards per game (rushing + passing) than Year 2 Mac, while adding 9 TDs on the ground. I think he'd be an improvement as well.
How do you think BB would have handled Josh Allen's 16 fumbles (including 2, one lost in their playoff game they lost by 3 points) that year? Still think he's going to allow Josh Allen to run as much as he wants?


Mac Jones had a better year 1 than Josh Allen had in year 2. I'd argue Mac also had a better year 1 than Jalen Hurts had in year 2.

Why do folks think Mac has regressed so badly this year? Did he all of a sudden forget how to play, or did the team, mostly the offensive line, and the coaching around him get worse?
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
55,298
deep inside Guido territory
I think there should be questions starting to arise about Belichick's future in New England. I don't think anything is going to happen for 2023, but after next year if there isn't considerable improvement of the team then his seat should be real warm. There's a difference between appreciating what someone like Belichick has done for the franchise and evaluating the future. Post-Brady, March 2024 will be 4 seasons' worth of a sample size. The last time they had cap space and spent on free agents, it did not turn out that well so let's see how he does this spring.
 
Last edited:

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
37,057
Hingham, MA
I think there should be questions starting to arise about Belichick's future in New England. I don't think anything is going to happen for 2023, but after next year if there isn't considerable improvement of the team then his seat should be real warm. There's a difference between appreciating what someone like Belichick has done for the franchise and evaluating the future. Post-Brady, March 2023 will be 4 seasons' worth of a sample size. The last time they had cap space and spent on free agents, it did not turn out that well so let's see how he does this spring.
I think you mean March 2024, but I agree (and it's why I bumped the fastball thread).
 

OurF'ingCity

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 22, 2016
8,469
New York City
I think there should be questions starting to arise about Belichick's future in New England. I don't think anything is going to happen for 2023, but after next year if there isn't considerable improvement of the team then his seat should be real warm. There's a difference between appreciating what someone like Belichick has done for the franchise and evaluating the future. Post-Brady, March 2024 will be 4 seasons' worth of a sample size. The last time they had cap space and spent on free agents, it did not turn out that well so let's see how he does this spring.
In terms of coaches under him Bill really seems to value familiarity over all else - it’s why his son and one of his former players are defensive coaches and two of his former coaches for other phases are now offensive coaches.

I’d love to see Belichick bring in someone, particularly on the offensive side, that maybe BB doesn’t have a ton of familiarity with and thus might bring a fresh set of eyes to things. I know that’s not really his style but I worry that in recent years in particular the coaching room has become a bit of an echo chamber.
 

FL4WL3SS

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2006
14,913
Andy Brickley's potty mouth
How do you think BB would have handled Josh Allen's 16 fumbles (including 2, one lost in their playoff game they lost by 3 points) that year? Still think he's going to allow Josh Allen to run as much as he wants?


Mac Jones had a better year 1 than Josh Allen had in year 2. I'd argue Mac also had a better year 1 than Jalen Hurts had in year 2.

Why do folks think Mac has regressed so badly this year? Did he all of a sudden forget how to play, or did the team, mostly the offensive line, and the coaching around him get worse?
You literally just need to look at how he's handled Mac this year for your answer.
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2005
41,947
You literally just need to look at how he's handled Mac this year for your answer.
How do you think he's handled Mac this year? I'm not following. You think he's holding him back or giving him more freedom? We're talking about BB, the guy who values ball security almost more than anything else. He's the coach that will bench a player for reaching across the goal line. Josh Allen fumbling 17 times in his 2nd year would have been a massive problem for BB. But, flesh this out a bit. Mac's numbers in each year.

2021: IAY/PA 8.0, Y/A 7.3, Int% 2.5, AY/A 7.0, Y/C, 10.8...
2022: IAY/PA, 7.6, Y/A 7.3, Int% 2.6, AY/A, 6.6, Y/C 10.7...

I mean, other than a lot more sacks, and fewer touchdowns, Mac's numbers are strikingly similar to last season. So how is BB handling Mac differently this year, except for the fact that he's got Matt Patricia coaching him instead of Josh and a disaster of an offensive line in front of him..
 

FL4WL3SS

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2006
14,913
Andy Brickley's potty mouth
How do you think he's handled Mac this year? I'm not following. You think he's holding him back or giving him more freedom? We're talking about BB, the guy who values ball security almost more than anything else. He's the coach that will bench a player for reaching across the goal line. Josh Allen fumbling 17 times in his 2nd year would have been a massive problem for BB. But, flesh this out a bit. Mac's numbers in each year.

2021: IAY/PA 8.0, Y/A 7.3, Int% 2.5, AY/A 7.0, Y/C, 10.8...
2022: IAY/PA, 7.6, Y/A 7.3, Int% 2.6, AY/A, 6.6, Y/C 10.7...

I mean, other than a lot more sacks, and fewer touchdowns, Mac's numbers are strikingly similar to last season. So how is BB handling Mac differently this year, except for the fact that he's got Matt Patricia coaching him instead of Josh and a disaster of an offensive line in front of him..
Mac was a turnover machine early in the year and BB stuck with him. I think with a QB as talented as Allen, he would have continued to coach him and stick with him just the same.

You asked the question on how BB would handle JA with all the turnovers, well the same way he has Mac this year.
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2005
41,947
Mac was a turnover machine early in the year and BB stuck with him. I think with a QB as talented as Allen, he would have continued to coach him and stick with him just the same.

You asked the question on how BB would handle JA with all the turnovers, well the same way he has Mac this year.
So you believe that Bill would have called designed running plays for a QB who couldn't hold onto the ball the way the Bills stuck with it?

Obviously, he can't take the ball out of his (or any QB's hands), but he also can make it very hard to put a guy like Allen in a position to continue fumbling. Allen's fumble problems just reared their head again against the Vikings a couple weeks ago.

We're also continuing to assume, with no evidence whatsoever, that BB is comfortable with, and would allow any QB to freelance and run. Other than Tom Brady sneaking the ball, and what, 3 games of Tim Tebow in Denver, neither he, nor Josh McDaniels have drafted or coached a QB who could run. Jacoby Brissett might be the closest thing to a running QB we've ever had, and he got 16 carries over 3 games. Put the ball on the ground 3 times too.

And I wanted Justin Fields in the Mac draft. I loved him out of college.
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
8,878
Dallas
Weeks 1-3 Mac Jones ADOT was 10.4 yards, 4th in the NFL. He was throwing deep 20.6% 3rd highest rate in the NFL. Then Andrews has been hurt, Wynn and RT have completely come apart, and Brown has been trending down. Weeks 7-13 his ADOT is 3rd lowest in the NFL, 6.1, and he is throwing deep 9.8% of the time 28th/37th in the NFL. I have to blame the line. As they have gotten worse the Patriots have gotten more and more conservative.
 

FL4WL3SS

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2006
14,913
Andy Brickley's potty mouth
Weeks 1-3 Mac Jones ADOT was 10.4 yards, 4th in the NFL. He was throwing deep 20.6% 3rd highest rate in the NFL. Then Andrews has been hurt, Wynn and RT have completely come apart, and Brown has been trending down. Weeks 7-13 his ADOT is 3rd lowest in the NFL, 6.1, and he is throwing deep 9.8% of the time 28th/37th in the NFL. I have to blame the line. As they have gotten worse the Patriots have gotten more and more conservative.
You don't think Mac's interceptions and poor decision making has any impact? Wholly agree the line has been a weird mess this year and injuries have been brutal, but they were also turning the ball over at an alarming rate when they tried to stretch the field.
 

luckiestman

Son of the Harpy
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
32,620
So you believe that Bill would have called designed running plays for a QB who couldn't hold onto the ball the way the Bills stuck with it?

Obviously, he can't take the ball out of his (or any QB's hands), but he also can make it very hard to put a guy like Allen in a position to continue fumbling. Allen's fumble problems just reared their head again against the Vikings a couple weeks ago.

We're also continuing to assume, with no evidence whatsoever, that BB is comfortable with, and would allow any QB to freelance and run. Other than Tom Brady sneaking the ball, and what, 3 games of Tim Tebow in Denver, neither he, nor Josh McDaniels have drafted or coached a QB who could run. Jacoby Brissett might be the closest thing to a running QB we've ever had, and he got 16 carries over 3 games. Put the ball on the ground 3 times too.

And I wanted Justin Fields in the Mac draft. I loved him out of college.
Cam ran for more yards than Josh Allen in 2020
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
53,840
Weeks 1-3 Mac Jones ADOT was 10.4 yards, 4th in the NFL. He was throwing deep 20.6% 3rd highest rate in the NFL. Then Andrews has been hurt, Wynn and RT have completely come apart, and Brown has been trending down. Weeks 7-13 his ADOT is 3rd lowest in the NFL, 6.1, and he is throwing deep 9.8% of the time 28th/37th in the NFL. I have to blame the line. As they have gotten worse the Patriots have gotten more and more conservative.
Also interesting that after all the interceptions earlier this year, his int % is now down around the same as last season (as in Death's post) and he's at around 150 passes without a pick.

Since the Chicago debacle his passer rating is 97.0, completing over 70% of this passes. But this offense has ZERO flow.
 
Last edited:

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
8,878
Dallas
So to me only two of those interceptions deep was his fault, the one vs Pittsburgh and the one in at the end of the game vs Baltimore. One interception was really a DPI and a tip vs Miami. One was a short pass to Parker. One was from 4th and goal from the 10 on a route communication to Parker. The one at the end of the game was just thrown too high. I don't think him airing it out was an issue. And even if it was reducing it by these alarming rates have more to do with lack of protection.
 

rodderick

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 24, 2009
12,751
Belo Horizonte - Brazil
How do you think BB would have handled Josh Allen's 16 fumbles (including 2, one lost in their playoff game they lost by 3 points) that year? Still think he's going to allow Josh Allen to run as much as he wants?


Mac Jones had a better year 1 than Josh Allen had in year 2. I'd argue Mac also had a better year 1 than Jalen Hurts had in year 2.

Why do folks think Mac has regressed so badly this year? Did he all of a sudden forget how to play, or did the team, mostly the offensive line, and the coaching around him get worse?
What Mac was as a rookie doesn't matter. It mattered in August as it seemed to provide a baseline for what we could expect of him as a player, but now we're finding out he isn't a lock to give this team that kind of performance if things around him aren't going well.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 24, 2002
48,205
Weeks 1-3 Mac Jones ADOT was 10.4 yards, 4th in the NFL. He was throwing deep 20.6% 3rd highest rate in the NFL. Then Andrews has been hurt, Wynn and RT have completely come apart, and Brown has been trending down. Weeks 7-13 his ADOT is 3rd lowest in the NFL, 6.1, and he is throwing deep 9.8% of the time 28th/37th in the NFL. I have to blame the line. As they have gotten worse the Patriots have gotten more and more conservative.
The injury likely is a contributor here as well but based on the eye test - which we know is unreliable and is rendered even moreso by them being mine - Mac has been under extra duress for the majority of the year. Both of which may be contributing to bad mechanics and decision making.
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
8,878
Dallas
The injury likely is a contributor here as well but based on the eye test - which we know is unreliable and is rendered even moreso by them being mine - Mac has been under extra duress for the majority of the year. Both of which may be contributing to bad mechanics and decision making.
I think you're right. What bothers me is that they drafted a pocket passer with limited mobility and a pop-gun arm. He needs a clean pocket. Then they ignored OT in the off-season and traded away all their depth. Their OC/OG depth was rough too. Ferentz is ok as a depth guy, OL9-10-11 or whatever. But you can't be relying on him to start 3-4 games.