Let's say BB stays on until he retires. What does that mean for the franchise?

Moonlight Graham

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Jerry Jones would give him a blank check.
Like he did with Parcells? That particular blank check over 4 years resulted in a 34-30 record with 2 playoff losses. It's really hard to get back to the SB when you get past your prime as a coach (and don't have a HoF QB).

He'd instantly be the highest paid coach in the NFL (if he isn't right now anyway). And all the Pats fans who wanted him gone would see him do wonders with his new team and see the Pats' rebuild take even longer and they'd think, why can't we get guys like that?
Rumor is that he already is, despite his mediocre record over the past several years. Of course, that also includes his front office duties.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Jerry Jones would give him a blank check.
The size of the market for Belichick's post Patriots services should not even be a consideration if people want him gone/think he is done in NE. Even if every other NFL team engages on a bidding war.

Its a pretty safe bet that he would have some options as soon as he hits the market. All you need to do is read @BaseballJones post in the gamethread about the Jets to understand that finding a capable HC isn't that easy, even for super mega elite advanced owners like the Krafts. The NFL is tough...
 

Justthetippett

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The size of the market for Belichick's post Patriots services should not even be a consideration if people want him gone/think he is done in NE. Even if every other NFL team engages on a bidding war.

Its a pretty safe bet that he would have some options as soon as he hits the market. All you need to do is read @BaseballJones post in the gamethread about the Jets to understand that finding a capable HC isn't that easy, even for super mega elite advanced owners like the Krafts. The NFL is tough...
My comment wasn’t to suggest that Jerry Jones writing a blank check would be advisable. It just seems very on brand, particularly at this stage of his life, where he’d do just about anything for one more championship.

The NFL is tough, and set up for success to go in cycles, which is why sustaining any kind of championship window for longer than 3-4 is so rare. The smart teams still lean toward stability in their coaches, GMs, etc.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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My comment wasn’t to suggest that Jerry Jones writing a blank check would be advisable. It just seems very on brand, particularly at this stage of his life, where he’d do just about anything for one more championship.

The NFL is tough, and set up for success to go in cycles, which is why sustaining any kind of championship window for longer than 3-4 is so rare. The smart teams still lean toward stability in their coaches, GMs, etc.
To clarify, I completely agree with your post that Jones and a bunch of owners would come calling immediately.

I was simply noting that if a person is in the BB-gotta-go camp, there will be plenty of rebound candidates. If you think he's done in NE, that should not matter at all.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Like he did with Parcells? That particular blank check over 4 years resulted in a 34-30 record with 2 playoff losses. It's really hard to get back to the SB when you get past your prime as a coach (and don't have a HoF QB).
You mean, "it's really hard to get back to the SB when you lose your HOF defensive coordinator, who also happens to be the greatest head coach of all time?"

This is asinine. There is no evidence that BB, the head coach, is "passed his prime." He took a rookie QB to the playoffs last year. What did the Eagles do with Hurts in his rookie year? The Bills with Josh Allen. The Bengals with Burrow. The Jags with Trevor Lawrence....

If you want to argue that BB, the GM (on the offensive side of the ball) is a problem, you'll get 100% agreement from me, but there is still no better head coach in the league at game planning against an opponent, resulting in competitive games even when his team has a clear talent deficiency, and a coaching staff that blows on offense. That's what a head coach is supposed to do, and he's still all of that. The GM shit is a problem, but BB has earned the right to coach here as long as he wants to as far as I'm concerned.

A lot of entitled fans in these parts that forget what rebuilding year after year, finishing seasons with 1-5 wins feels like, etc. I'll take .500 seasons during a rebuilding process all day long rather that the games I sat through on metal bleachers for most of the Foxboro Stadium seasons. Jets, Broncos, Texans, Raiders, Colts, Falcons, Panthers, Saints, Bears, Lions, Cardinals, etc. Their fans would beg to have had the rebuilding seasons we've been having, instead of the seasons they've had for most of the last 2 decades.
 

Jinhocho

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You mean, "it's really hard to get back to the SB when you lose your HOF defensive coordinator, who also happens to be the greatest head coach of all time?"

This is asinine. There is no evidence that BB, the head coach, is "passed his prime." He took a rookie QB to the playoffs last year. What did the Eagles do with Hurts in his rookie year? The Bills with Josh Allen. The Bengals with Burrow. The Jags with Trevor Lawrence....

If you want to argue that BB, the GM (on the offensive side of the ball) is a problem, you'll get 100% agreement from me, but there is still no better head coach in the league at game planning against an opponent, resulting in competitive games even when his team has a clear talent deficiency, and a coaching staff that blows on offense. That's what a head coach is supposed to do, and he's still all of that. The GM shit is a problem, but BB has earned the right to coach here as long as he wants to as far as I'm concerned.

A lot of entitled fans in these parts that forget what rebuilding year after year, finishing seasons with 1-5 wins feels like, etc. I'll take .500 seasons during a rebuilding process all day long rather that the games I sat through on metal bleachers for most of the Foxboro Stadium seasons. Jets, Broncos, Texans, Raiders, Colts, Falcons, Panthers, Saints, Bears, Lions, Cardinals, etc. Their fans would beg to have had the rebuilding seasons we've been having, instead of the seasons they've had for most of the last 2 decades.
Hey DotB - even in those brutal seaons on the benches the tailgates were awesome lol. Those horrible times helped me keep perspective through the dynasty years. I suspect a lot of younger or newer pats fans are going to have trouble adjusting to being less than we were over the past 20. They have been in almost every game this year with a chance to win. A few bounces there way even with the suck it has been and we would be telling a far different story. I still see a lot of reasons for optimism for next year.
 
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rodderick

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He'd instantly be the highest paid coach in the NFL (if he isn't right now anyway). And all the Pats fans who wanted him gone would see him do wonders with his new team and see the Pats' rebuild take even longer and they'd think, why can't we get guys like that?
Would the wonders start in year 4? Because if not, why would they come sooner elsewhere than in NE?
 

Dotrat

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If you want to argue that BB, the GM (on the offensive side of the ball) is a problem, you'll get 100% agreement from me, but there is still no better head coach in the league at game planning against an opponent, resulting in competitive games even when his team has a clear talent deficiency, and a coaching staff that blows on offense. That's what a head coach is supposed to do, and he's still all of that. The GM shit is a problem, but BB has earned the right to coach here as long as he wants to as far as I'm concerned.
And to be more precise, this is mostly limited to WRs and, more recently, TEs.

BB has done mostly stellar work either drafting or bringing in FA RBs, as well as drafting offensive linemen and QBs. He's drafted only one world beater at the latter spot, but has picked plenty of decent players who've been starters for his or other teams. Considering where NE usually drafts and that he's used only one first round pick on a QB in 20+ years, I'd say he has at least an above-average grade in that category.

I agree that the team has been mediocre since Brady left--but the reasons are broader and deeper than simply "Brady left and now we see that BB is a shitty GM and mediocre coach." A lot of talent aged out or is aging among the players and tons of leadership and experience have departed the coaching ranks. I think he could have been better prepared, especially for the drain in offensive coaching experience that resulted from McDaniels's exit. But he's more than earned the leeway to make a few mistakes, including some poor drafts and coaching personnel decisions. I suspect this offseason will see him bringing in more, and better, offensive coaches. If not, then it's time to think about moving on--but I doubt he'll adhere to the status quo.
 

rodderick

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You mean, "it's really hard to get back to the SB when you lose your HOF defensive coordinator, who also happens to be the greatest head coach of all time?"

This is asinine. There is no evidence that BB, the head coach, is "passed his prime." He took a rookie QB to the playoffs last year. What did the Eagles do with Hurts in his rookie year? The Bills with Josh Allen. The Bengals with Burrow. The Jags with Trevor Lawrence....

If you want to argue that BB, the GM (on the offensive side of the ball) is a problem, you'll get 100% agreement from me, but there is still no better head coach in the league at game planning against an opponent, resulting in competitive games even when his team has a clear talent deficiency, and a coaching staff that blows on offense. That's what a head coach is supposed to do, and he's still all of that. The GM shit is a problem, but BB has earned the right to coach here as long as he wants to as far as I'm concerned.

A lot of entitled fans in these parts that forget what rebuilding year after year, finishing seasons with 1-5 wins feels like, etc. I'll take .500 seasons during a rebuilding process all day long rather that the games I sat through on metal bleachers for most of the Foxboro Stadium seasons. Jets, Broncos, Texans, Raiders, Colts, Falcons, Panthers, Saints, Bears, Lions, Cardinals, etc. Their fans would beg to have had the rebuilding seasons we've been having, instead of the seasons they've had for most of the last 2 decades.
This is where I'll disagree. They've basically lost every game in which they had a clear talent deficit for three seasons now. The only exceptions that come to my mind are the game against the Ravens in 2020 and last year's Buffalo game in a snowstorm (and then they proceeded to not punt the ball in their following two matchups against you in more reasonable conditions). The Patriots' biggest merit of late has been consistently beating the dreck of the league and the backup QBs they face (which isn't a given in the NFL). When they are worse than the opponent, they lose.
 

lexrageorge

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This is where I'll disagree. They've basically lost every game in which they had a clear talent deficit for three seasons now. The only exceptions that come to my mind are the game against the Ravens in 2020 and last year's Buffalo game in a snowstorm (and then they proceeded to not punt the ball in their following two matchups against you in more reasonable conditions). The Patriots' biggest merit of late has been consistently beating the dreck of the league and the backup QBs they face (which isn't a given in the NFL). When they are worse than the opponent, they lose.
Which may be more indicative of the nature of their talent deficiency and the nature of the game today than coaching ability. The roster lacks a game breaker type player on offense in an era where such a player is extremely valuable.

It should also be noted that the Lions have won 6 of their last 7. Also, last season's Chargers team had an edge on offensive talent and the Titans went 12-5.

EDIT: I did try to find the games where there was a clear talent gap over the past 2 seasons (I'm ignoring 2020 as it was always intended to be a throwaway gap year):

Wins against better teams:
Titans
Bills (2021 Hurricane Game)

Losses to clearly better teams:
Bills (2x in 2021, 1x in 2022)
Bucs (Brady Bowl)
Cowboys (OT)
Dolphins (1x 2022 version)
Ravens
Vikings (albeit not totally sold on this team)

Wins against teams that are in the same tier as the Pats:
Chargers
Jets (2x 2022 edition, although slipping badly)
Lions

Losses to teams that are in the same tier as the Pats:
Dolphins (2x to 2021 version)
Saints
Colts (2021 version)
Packers (OT)
Raiders

Wins against inferior teams:
Jets (2x, 2021 edition)
Texans
Panthers
Browns (2021 and 2022 editions)
Falcons
Jaguars
Steelers
Colts (2022 edition)
Cardinals

Losses to clearly inferior teams:
Bears
 
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Deathofthebambino

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And to be more precise, this is mostly limited to WRs and, more recently, TEs.

BB has done mostly stellar work either drafting or bringing in FA RBs, as well as drafting offensive linemen and QBs. He's drafted only one world beater at the latter spot, but has picked plenty of decent players who've been starters for his or other teams. Considering where NE usually drafts and that he's used only one first round pick on a QB in 20+ years, I'd say he has at least an above-average grade in that category.

I agree that the team has been mediocre since Brady left--but the reasons are broader and deeper than simply "Brady left and now we see that BB is a shitty GM and mediocre coach." A lot of talent aged out or is aging among the players and tons of leadership and experience have departed the coaching ranks. I think he could have been better prepared, especially for the drain in offensive coaching experience that resulted from McDaniels's exit. But he's more than earned the leeway to make a few mistakes, including some poor drafts and coaching personnel decisions. I suspect this offseason will see him bringing in more, and better, offensive coaches. If not, then it's time to think about moving on--but I doubt he'll adhere to the status quo.
I'm more concerned about BB, the GM in the passed 5+ year or so, on the offensive side of the ball. He's been bad, really bad in that area.

Here are his offensive line choices since 2017.

Cole Strange, who he drafted at 29, when he is probably available a lot later.
Chasen Hines, 6th round
Andrew Steuber, 7th round
William Sherman, 6th round in 2021
Owenu, 6th round, 2020
Justin Herron, 6th round 2020
Dustin Woodard, 7th round, 2020
Cajuste, 3rd round, 2019
Froholdt, 4th round, 2019
Wynn, 23rd overall, 2018
Antonio Garcia, 3rd round, 2017
Conor McDermott, 6th round, 2017'

He got Thuney and Karras in 2016, but since then, woof.

At the skill positions in those same drafts:

Brissett, Malcolm Mitchell and Devin Lucien in 2016
Danny Etling, Ryan Izzo, Berrios and Sony Michel in 2018
Harry, Damien Harris and Stidham in 2019
Asiasi and Keene in 2020
Mac, Rham and Tre Nixon in 2021
Thornton, Strong, Kevin Harris and Zappe in 2022

WOOF again. The worst part of these drafts in most cases is who he passed up when he took these guys. I don't have time to make that list, but when your offensive draft picks look like that over a 5-6 year period, and then you make it worse by going and getting Jonnu, Henry, Agholor, Parker, Bourne, etc. with a shit ton of money..Nobody should be surprised at the results.

Meanwhile, during that same time period, he's been able to draft the following on defense:

Marcus Jones, Jack Jones, Barmore, Dugger, Uche, Perkins, McGrone, Jennings, Bentley, Wise, Elandon Roberts, and went out and got Judon, etc.

Defense is where BB makes his money, it's time to let someone else shop for some offensive groceries.
 

Ed Hillel

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Other than Wynn, whose collapse could be attributed to his achilles injury, are those OL picks really that bad? How many 3rd round Tackles turn into strong starters? One of the 6th rounders is Pro Bowl quality, as well. The issues, to me, are WR and TE. He hasn't drafted a good TE since the Curse of Aaron Hernandez. QB he has a pretty amazing record, actually, even outside of Brady. Mac perhaps nothwithstanding...
 

tims4wins

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4 Bengals drives, 4 scores.

3 Patriots drives, 31 yards.

Bill is either intentionally trying to lose out (narrator: he's not), or he has completely lost this team.
 

tims4wins

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Maybe wait until the game plays out to write the eulogy? And if you aren’t at least be correct about the facts.
Obviously I wrote the post when the Bengals were on the 15.

If the Pats come back today I would submit that it would be more stunning than 28-3.

I don’t believe Mac has ever come back from more than 7 points in his career.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Other than Wynn, whose collapse could be attributed to his achilles injury, are those OL picks really that bad? How many 3rd round Tackles turn into strong starters? One of the 6th rounders is Pro Bowl quality, as well. The issues, to me, are WR and TE. He hasn't drafted a good TE since the Curse of Aaron Hernandez. QB he has a pretty amazing record, actually, even outside of Brady. Mac perhaps nothwithstanding...
Again, it's more of a snowball effect than anything. Wynn being a miss at #23 is a disaster. Cole Strange was a 3rd round talent that could have been had in the mid-late 2nd round at worst. He as projected to be an average starter some day. They hit on Owenu, but the rest of that list is literally just wasting draft picks.

They've taken 5 quarterbacks in 6 years. Brissett, Etling, Stidham, Mac and Zappe. That, to me, is a sign that BB never found a guy he thought was good enough to be a backup/future starter. Again, more picks just being wasted.

And don't even get me started on the WR/TE situation.

But the snowball is all of the potential players they could have had instead of the ones they've taken in these spots. The hit rate on defense vs. offense is staggering, and IMO, it's because the speed required on offense is what Bill is consistently missing. When he goes speed, he ends up with someone like Tyquan, when he doesn't, he gets someone like Harry...It's just bad scouting/player evaluation at almost every turn for the past 5-6 years.
 

BaseballJones

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The Pats have a few guys who could be considered legit playmakers. Marcus, Bourne, and I think Thornton. I know Thornton isn’t reliable yet but those three are the guys I’d be trying to get the ball to as much as possible.
 

j44thor

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The Pats have a few guys who could be considered legit playmakers. Marcus, Bourne, and I think Thornton. I know Thornton isn’t reliable yet but those three are the guys I’d be trying to get the ball to as much as possible.
Thornton is a bust but only because he was grossly over drafted. No one had a 2nd rd grade on him, he is fast, or at least runs a fast 40 and that is it. The sobering reality is that WR's drafted in the first 3 rds that didn't have a reasonably productive rookie season, say 500 yards, are considered "face planters" in the Dynasty community. The hit rate among face planters is incredibly small. The thinking is that if someone is drafted in the first 3 rounds they should be expected to contribute early on barring injury and if they don't it is not because they don't get the opportunity a later draft pick might not get but simply they aren't that good.

So what is a “face plant” rookie? That was the key to his analysis.

He found that 537 yards as a rookie is the most clear breakpoint in the data.

  • Receivers that hit 537 yards? 41 went on to more success, 26 didn’t.
  • Receivers that didn’t hit 537 yards? 9 went on to future success and 261 didn’t.
https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/comments/l5f3ro/buying_rookie_faceplant_wrs_is_a_bad_idea/

The odds of Thornton being the next Chad Jackson are extremely high. To be fair the 2022 WR class was very weak after the first handful of WR went off the board. No one besides Pickens looks to be a good bet for future success and even Pickens has his warts, basically a better N'Keal Harry. Zero separation but incredible contested catch ability. Probably not someone Mac would be targeting.
 

BaseballJones

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Well you said, “The thinking is that if someone is drafted in the first 3 rounds they should be expected to contribute early on barring injury.”

Did you forget his injury?

Do you see how crappy the entire offense is?

You may be right that Thornton won’t end up being any good but my word, calling him a bust already is something.
 

8slim

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Today is precisely why Bill is still a great head coach. The Pats had no business being in that game. The Bengals should have steamrolled us. And yet there we were, headed to a win with 40 seconds left.

Sadly, the horrific first half, the mistakes and the general brain dead play is a reflection of the organizational rot that has set in. Bill can’t
overcome on Sunday what he has allowed to transpire Monday through Saturday.
 

SMU_Sox

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He has about a 3% chance of becoming an above average WR, better odds than a 6th rd QB becoming the goat but I still wouldn't bet on it.
I don’t think that’s quite right. The numbers say a 3.9% chance at becoming a top 24 WR for multiple years and a 5.7% chance of it happening once. But on the other hand yeah I’m ready to say it’s more likely than not Thornton is a bust. Just watch the tape. He struggles mightily vs press and more physical coverage. His routes are putrid. He doesn’t make routine or more difficult catches. The last two weeks he has had every opportunity to make plays and he’s come up short every time. Think about how many times he’s failed to secure the ball and not made the catch. You can shout small sample size and you’d have a point but the rest of his route details are lacking too and that’s at the point where it’s not such a small sample size. The two guys I really liked for the Pats at WR, George Pickens and Alec Pierce are both miles ahead of TT production wise. So while you can chuckle at a fantasy football related article the tape is arguably even uglier. There are some mitigating factors like the OL is taking away their ability to consistently get it to him deep. The counter to that is he’s not getting open deep and failing to make catches deep when he is targeted.

I didn’t realize this methodology was used for fantasy football. I’ve seen it used for draft success analysis and whether or not you likely found a hit or you missed.
 

Silverdude2167

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Maybe it was to much Christmas spirit, but my mind wandered to the team and this thread last night and how the Pats are like 6 plays from being 11 and 4.

How this team that we all agree is bad could easily have 11 wins just makes me laugh when people say BB is done.
 

Marciano490

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Can you teach hands? Seems all these speedsters with questionable hands never learn to catch, but I’m sure I’m missing a few.
 

j44thor

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I don’t think that’s quite right. The numbers say a 3.9% chance at becoming a top 24 WR for multiple years and a 5.7% chance of it happening once. But on the other hand yeah I’m ready to say it’s more likely than not Thornton is a bust. Just watch the tape. He struggles mightily vs press and more physical coverage. His routes are putrid. He doesn’t make routine or more difficult catches. The last two weeks he has had every opportunity to make plays and he’s come up short every time. Think about how many times he’s failed to secure the ball and not made the catch. You can shout small sample size and you’d have a point but the rest of his route details are lacking too and that’s at the point where it’s not such a small sample size. The two guys I really liked for the Pats at WR, George Pickens and Alec Pierce are both miles ahead of TT production wise. So while you can chuckle at a fantasy football related article the tape is arguably even uglier. There are some mitigating factors like the OL is taking away their ability to consistently get it to him deep. The counter to that is he’s not getting open deep and failing to make catches deep when he is targeted.

I didn’t realize this methodology was used for fantasy football. I’ve seen it used for draft success analysis and whether or not you likely found a hit or you missed.
I think you were largely agreeing with me and I do find the dynasty fantasy community does a very good job at identifying WR talent, certainly better than the NE front office which is a little puzzling. TT was largely considered a 5th rd or later pick and everyone had Pickens rated well above him. Pickens has his own warts, primarily that he can't separate, but he has great sideline body control and a big catch radius. I could see NE worrying that he would be the next N'Keal but the difference is PIckens knows how to use his frame to create some separation and has really strong hands.
 

SMU_Sox

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I am largely agreeing with you minus just making sure your parameters are spelled out correctly to the best of my non paywall access. But I wanted to add a film aspect to this because I think some folks are turned off by where the research is coming from - fantasy/dynasty. His tape is really rough right now. Greg Cossell (spelling) loved him but all the guys I listen to and follow: The Athletic, Bleacher Report, Matt Waldman, NFL.com Lance Z, Pro Football Focus… ALL of them had TT as a 4th/5th and most 5th (or worse equivalent grade because not everyone does a round equivalent grade) and he was 128th on Arif’s consensus big board so he was a tremendous reach at the time.

What makes me angry is I had two receivers I felt were great fits for them, Alec Pierce and George Pickens and they both are going to clear that 537 mark easily. Pickens was my dude.
Edit: Now I’m wrong a lot but this one felt a lot clearer… especially with Pickens.
Last edit: Pickens was 41st on my board, a 4.5/5 fit and Pierce was 66th, also a 4.5/5 fit. I think they overvalued TT’s speed over other necessary receiving traits
 
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8slim

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Maybe it was to much Christmas spirit, but my mind wandered to the team and this thread last night and how the Pats are like 6 plays from being 11 and 4.

How this team that we all agree is bad could easily have 11 wins just makes me laugh when people say BB is done.
He’s not done. But that’s also most NFL teams. It’s a league of randomness and small margins. We easily could be 4-11 too.
 

rodderick

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He’s not done. But that’s also most NFL teams. It’s a league of randomness and small margins. We easily could be 4-11 too.
It's funny how EVERYTHING broke their way yesterday and they still couldn't pull the game off and that one goes in the "shoulda had it" column. Pick 6 on miscommunication, Mac fumble-6 being called a pass play, Hail Mary deflection TD on 3rd and 30. Still not enough. They were exceedingly lucky to be in any position to win that game. Replay that second half 10 times and the average score is likely a lot closer to 40-6 than 22-18.
 

johnmd20

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Well you said, “The thinking is that if someone is drafted in the first 3 rounds they should be expected to contribute early on barring injury.”

Did you forget his injury?

Do you see how crappy the entire offense is?

You may be right that Thornton won’t end up being any good but my word, calling him a bust already is something.
He is not good.

By this point, rookie wide receivers either show their talents(Garrett Wilson, Justin Jefferson, Amon St. Brown, George Pickins) or they suck.

I know Thornton got hurt but he's got 18 catches this year. Johnny Mundt(who?) has more.

I appreciate you always trying to find the silver lining but it does result in bad calls every now and then. Thornton is not good and he is a bust, like N'keal clearly was in his rookie year. You know when you know.
 

BaseballJones

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Reggie Wayne’s rookie season: 27 rec, 345 yds, 55.1% catches. 0 td

Demaryius Thomas’ rookie season: 22 rec, 283 yds, 56.4% catches, 2 td

Cris Carter’s rookie season: 5 rec, 84 yds, 2 td

Wes Welker’s rookie season: 0 rec, 0 yds

Mike Williams’ rookie season: 11 rec, 95 yds, 47.8% rec

Isaac Bruce’s rookie season: 21 rec, 272 yds, 47.7% catches, 3 td

Adam Thielen’s rookie season: 8 rec, 137 yds, 1 td

I mean, this took me three minutes to find. There have been tons of receivers who had unproductive rookie seasons who have gone on to have solid or spectacular NFL careers.

In just 11 games Thornton has 18 rec, 174 yds, 50.0% catches, and 1 td. Obviously an unproductive season but it’s in line with these other guys and he’s done it with, by ALL accounts, one of the worst offensive schemes they’ve ever seen.
 

j44thor

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Reggie Wayne’s rookie season: 27 rec, 345 yds, 55.1% catches. 0 td

Demaryius Thomas’ rookie season: 22 rec, 283 yds, 56.4% catches, 2 td

Cris Carter’s rookie season: 5 rec, 84 yds, 2 td

Wes Welker’s rookie season: 0 rec, 0 yds

Mike Williams’ rookie season: 11 rec, 95 yds, 47.8% rec

Isaac Bruce’s rookie season: 21 rec, 272 yds, 47.7% catches, 3 td

Adam Thielen’s rookie season: 8 rec, 137 yds, 1 td

I mean, this took me three minutes to find. There have been tons of receivers who had unproductive rookie seasons who have gone on to have solid or spectacular NFL careers.

In just 11 games Thornton has 18 rec, 174 yds, 50.0% catches, and 1 td. Obviously an unproductive season but it’s in line with these other guys and he’s done it with, by ALL accounts, one of the worst offensive schemes they’ve ever seen.
There is a difference between playing percentages and finding outliers. Thought I made that fairly clear. Those above fall into the 4% of WRs that end up having a productive career after "face planting" yes it happens but is exceedingly rare. If you look at the list of WRs that didn't pan out it is exceedingly longer. Betting on long shots is not a great way to make a living.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,386
There is a difference between playing percentages and finding outliers. Thought I made that fairly clear. Those above fall into the 4% of WRs that end up having a productive career after "face planting" yes it happens but is exceedingly rare. If you look at the list of WRs that didn't pan out it is exceedingly longer. Betting on long shots is not a great way to make a living.
I’m not making any bets. I’m responding to the very strongly stated claim that “Thornton is not good and he is a bust, like N'keal clearly was in his rookie year. You know when you know.”

Practically off the top of my head I found 7 guys who were either good or GREAT receivers who pretty much stunk their rookie year. That they may be the 4% or whatever, I’m not going to argue, nor am I saying that Thornton is NOT a bust. I’m just saying that it’s pretty early to make such a definitive declaration that he’s not good and is a bust.
 

luckiestman

Son of the Harpy
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
32,622
I’m not making any bets. I’m responding to the very strongly stated claim that “Thornton is not good and he is a bust, like N'keal clearly was in his rookie year. You know when you know.”

Practically off the top of my head I found 7 guys who were either good or GREAT receivers who pretty much stunk their rookie year. That they may be the 4% or whatever, I’m not going to argue, nor am I saying that Thornton is NOT a bust. I’m just saying that it’s pretty early to make such a definitive declaration that he’s not good and is a bust.
Definitive is overstating it but the numbers posted surprised me. Didn’t know it was that bad for rookie wideouts that don’t produce.
 

Marciano490

Urological Expert
SoSH Member
Nov 4, 2007
62,312
Reggie Wayne’s rookie season: 27 rec, 345 yds, 55.1% catches. 0 td

Demaryius Thomas’ rookie season: 22 rec, 283 yds, 56.4% catches, 2 td

Cris Carter’s rookie season: 5 rec, 84 yds, 2 td

Wes Welker’s rookie season: 0 rec, 0 yds

Mike Williams’ rookie season: 11 rec, 95 yds, 47.8% rec

Isaac Bruce’s rookie season: 21 rec, 272 yds, 47.7% catches, 3 td

Adam Thielen’s rookie season: 8 rec, 137 yds, 1 td

I mean, this took me three minutes to find. There have been tons of receivers who had unproductive rookie seasons who have gone on to have solid or spectacular NFL careers.

In just 11 games Thornton has 18 rec, 174 yds, 50.0% catches, and 1 td. Obviously an unproductive season but it’s in line with these other guys and he’s done it with, by ALL accounts, one of the worst offensive schemes they’ve ever seen.
How long would it take to find anyone recent? One of these guys is dead.
 

johnmd20

mad dog
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 30, 2003
61,996
New York City
I’m not making any bets. I’m responding to the very strongly stated claim that “Thornton is not good and he is a bust, like N'keal clearly was in his rookie year. You know when you know.”

Practically off the top of my head I found 7 guys who were either good or GREAT receivers who pretty much stunk their rookie year. That they may be the 4% or whatever, I’m not going to argue, nor am I saying that Thornton is NOT a bust. I’m just saying that it’s pretty early to make such a definitive declaration that he’s not good and is a bust.
When I was saying N'keal Harry was a bust around this time of the season in 2019 many people said, "We need to see more."

The thing is, we didn't need to see more. Harry sucks. And Thornton doesn't have it. He drops too many passes if he runs a good route and gets open, which is rare as it is. I guess we'll see but he doesn't have it. He cannot create. And his hands are just bleh.

And those WRs you listed were almost all 10 years ago or more. (Issac Bruce, Chris Carter, and Reggie Wayne, seriously?) Wide receivers weren't as polished back then. I think that is obvious after what we've seen from Chase, St. Brown, and Jefferson. And Dotson, Olave, Pickins, Wilson, and Watson literally this year. All those guys have had break out games, despite Olave and Watson and Dotson having injuries, just like Thrornton. So I don't want to hear that injuries caused Thornton to regress. And Olave is catching passes from a statue and Wilson is catching passes from the worst QB in the NFL and Pickins is catching passes from bums.

Recently the NFL has seen rookie WRs break out en masse, usually in the 2nd half of their rookie season. The true studs are studs from the jump. Thornton has 18 catches and a couple of huge drops. He's had 0 great games in 2022.
 

luckiestman

Son of the Harpy
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
32,622
On the receiver point, G Wilson has been undeniable since his feet hit the turf. I was shocked we got him at 10 (thought he was better than London) and he has not disappointed. He might be the best Jet wideout I have seen and before you mock that as not being much, they have had some good dudes (Keyshawn, Coles, Marshall, Holmes, S Moss, Decker, etc…).

I still find the stat post very interesting, I knew receivers were developing faster but I didn’t know it was THAT fast.
 

Marciano490

Urological Expert
SoSH Member
Nov 4, 2007
62,312
When I was saying N'keal Harry was a bust around this time of the season in 2019 many people said, "We need to see more."

The thing is, we didn't need to see more. Harry sucks. And Thornton doesn't have it. He drops too many passes if he runs a good route and gets open, which is rare as it is. I guess we'll see but he doesn't have it. He cannot create. And his hands are just bleh.

And those WRs you listed were almost all 10 years ago or more. (Issac Bruce, Chris Carter, and Reggie Wayne, seriously?) Wide receivers weren't as polished back then. I think that is obvious after what we've seen from Chase, St. Brown, and Jefferson. And Dotson, Olave, Pickins, Wilson, and Watson literally this year. All those guys have had break out games, despite Olave and Watson and Dotson having injuries, just like Thrornton. So I don't want to hear that injuries caused Thornton to regress. And Olave is catching passes from a statue and Wilson is catching passes from the worst QB in the NFL and Pickins is catching passes from bums.

Recently the NFL has seen rookie WRs break out en masse, usually in the 2nd half of their rookie season. The true studs are studs from the jump. Thornton has 18 catches and a couple of huge drops. He's had 0 great games in 2022.
And to reinforce your point, Olave, Dotson and Pickens don’t have very good QBs throwing to them.